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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-07 15:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-07 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-07 16:00:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great! Watching breadth this morning really paid off.
2010-12-07 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-07 16:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looked like we got our final hurrah today with the news of the tax rates being the backdrop
2010-12-07 16:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: funny, though
2010-12-07 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the futures didn't really kick it into high gear until 6:00 eastern
2010-12-07 16:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-07 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see we had another day of flat breadth...could have some small point changes again today
2010-12-07 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's get going...shall we?
2010-12-07 16:03:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Sure
2010-12-07 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get going
2010-12-07 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm....somethings wrong here
2010-12-07 16:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO data is from yesterday
2010-12-07 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll pass it and come back to it later
2010-12-07 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's again expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2010-12-07 16:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have what looks like our obligatory snapback down to the zero line
2010-12-07 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO components still in a bullish crossover configuration
2010-12-07 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can't lead off here
2010-12-07 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the flip side
2010-12-07 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's rare when we see a ledge pattern in the MCSUM go beyond 5 days
2010-12-07 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart wise, the NYA looks like it had a solid reversal today
2010-12-07 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so near term, it's really a toss up here
2010-12-07 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we might see an attempt to move higher tomorrow...and THEN fail
2010-12-07 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of this liquidity...it's really becoming hard for the market to show a natural cadence
2010-12-07 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I would still respect the ledge formation(s)
2010-12-07 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what it suggests for the short term
2010-12-07 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that most, if not all, of the momentum from last weeks hard advance has now been used up
2010-12-07 16:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a good lesson, right Tonny?
2010-12-07 16:11:35 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Sure!!
2010-12-07 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did you come out on that short from Thursday?
2010-12-07 16:11:56 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I closed it early Friday in the European session with a small loss
2010-12-07 16:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're fortunate
2010-12-07 16:12:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I listened
2010-12-07 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a matter of learning new tricks and listening to the market
2010-12-07 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and understanding that crisp moves in either direction just don't stop on a pence
2010-12-07 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a euro
2010-12-07 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bears running out of time to show a reversal here on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2010-12-07 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls are able to move above the +200 MCSUM level, that could open the door for a continuation of the current advance from mid November
2010-12-07 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears then MUST belly up now
2010-12-07 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't, this will get away from them in a hurry
2010-12-07 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today...they ambushed the bulls the best they could
2010-12-07 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the Calvary is just over the hill...watch out
2010-12-07 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX breadth MCSUM continuing to chop sideways...waiting for something
2010-12-07 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a cross over sell on the NDX breadth components
2010-12-07 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's pretty much accomplished its simple snapback to its zero line
2010-12-07 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...I would not be at all aggressive here on the short side
2010-12-07 16:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stress the word - NOT
2010-12-07 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow breadth MCO completing a technical snapback up to its zero line
2010-12-07 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...the bears better hurry up here
2010-12-07 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2010-12-07 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price pattern
2010-12-07 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to be careful in assuming today's bar as being a reversal
2010-12-07 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what happens in strong trends is that we will get these type of "excitable" bar that will tend to keep the majority from moving in with the trend
2010-12-07 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to reinforce a wall of worry that the pattern is about to reverse
2010-12-07 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so given the current MCO and MCSUM configurations here on the MID
2010-12-07 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be very careful in assuming that we've see a short term top and a snapback to the April breakout area is about to begin
2010-12-07 16:21:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that candle isn't too pretty
2010-12-07 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakout to the upside on the SML breadth MCO!
2010-12-07 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't speak Japanese - sorry
2010-12-07 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM is now moving aggressively to the upside
2010-12-07 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it looks like we have something else going on here folks
2010-12-07 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be we've hit a bottom
2010-12-07 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO with the bears running out of time to "hold the line"
2010-12-07 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....things have now changed a bit
2010-12-07 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML data streaking higher
2010-12-07 16:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and breaking overhead resistance
2010-12-07 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there definitely is enough liquidity to keep things from correcting here
2010-12-07 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we always have to remember that some of the greatest rallies in history always started with aggressive short covering
2010-12-07 16:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and noting that QE 2 isn't going so well
2010-12-07 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that money is leaving the bond market
2010-12-07 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the course of intermarket money flow
2010-12-07 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money comes out of debt and then goes into equities
2010-12-07 16:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sequence is gold to commodities to debt to equities
2010-12-07 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be looking at an aggressive allocation sequence going on here that will kill any chance of a pullback
2010-12-07 16:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is confirmation
2010-12-07 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and confirmation will only come IF we're able to get the breadth MCO's above their November highs
2010-12-07 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the SML did today
2010-12-07 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be careful
2010-12-07 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2010-12-07 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...the CO volume has been updated...let me go back to the breadth data for a moment
2010-12-07 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...small point change on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2010-12-07 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so except for the Dow, we have small point MCO changes across the board tonight
2010-12-07 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning the market is coiled to spring in one direction or the other
2010-12-07 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be a hefty move
2010-12-07 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but which way?
2010-12-07 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume data
2010-12-07 16:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO volume MCO found resistance at the early November highs of +50 and was turned away
2010-12-07 16:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...the short term action here remains with the bulls
2010-12-07 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, well, would you look at that!
2010-12-07 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCO had a small point change moved higher today
2010-12-07 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean that money was flowing into the interest rate sensitive issues as opposed to the common stocks
2010-12-07 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the big losses today in the bonds
2010-12-07 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would then have to figure that money is moving in to create a bottom in rates
2010-12-07 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting
2010-12-07 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same thing applies here as far as a breakout
2010-12-07 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a move above the early November highs confirming this
2010-12-07 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's think about this for a moment
2010-12-07 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a cursory view
2010-12-07 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are traders, newsletters, and message boards thinking now
2010-12-07 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: top?
2010-12-07 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pull back imminent?
2010-12-07 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or is it wishy washy?
2010-12-07 16:34:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: small pullback. Christmas rally in bank
2010-12-07 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...
2010-12-07 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XMAS rally is maybe a week or so away
2010-12-07 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you think they're thinking that far ahead?
2010-12-07 16:35:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's been served up-41 out of 50 times, etc
2010-12-07 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means its due to change
2010-12-07 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about?
2010-12-07 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we rally now
2010-12-07 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pullback during the holidays?
2010-12-07 16:36:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: may well be, don't like much of a rally if we go from here, though
2010-12-07 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would screw with the majority
2010-12-07 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing wrong here
2010-12-07 16:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical problem is that we do have the POTENTIAL of bearish divergent structures
2010-12-07 16:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we break above the November highs in the MCO
2010-12-07 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more divergence
2010-12-07 16:37:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and not much texture, either
2010-12-07 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain strong
2010-12-07 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2010-12-07 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we might not need it
2010-12-07 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consider this
2010-12-07 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if there is so much liquidity out there
2010-12-07 16:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market CAN'T back and fill?
2010-12-07 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all, isn't that what happened at the beginning of September?
2010-12-07 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is the middle of a third wave structure
2010-12-07 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrections are going to be very shallow...if non existent
2010-12-07 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have bull divergence in place
2010-12-07 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market did rally off that divergence
2010-12-07 16:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it get ahead of itself?
2010-12-07 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-07 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has the last couple of days given it time to catch its breath?
2010-12-07 16:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-07 16:39:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the NDX has lead, and it looks much less fresh
2010-12-07 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two days have seen advancers and decliners matched up
2010-12-07 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SML has picked up the slack
2010-12-07 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed by the MID
2010-12-07 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...they are more important to the longevity of any uptrend
2010-12-07 16:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX is composed of secondary issues - sorry
2010-12-07 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we also know that the SML and MID are filled with these same issues
2010-12-07 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will do everything it can to keep you from focusing on what's truly important
2010-12-07 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what once was important then takes a back seat for a while
2010-12-07 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see this all the time
2010-12-07 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile...the Semi's are roaring ahead
2010-12-07 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about them specifically about a month ago from where many have stopped watching this sector as far as any leadership is concerned because of the fatigue factor
2010-12-07 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now...while everyone is watching the banks...slam, pow!
2010-12-07 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure
2010-12-07 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pullback would be favorable
2010-12-07 16:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the odds continue to suggest that we'll see one before we go too much further
2010-12-07 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something different is taking place here
2010-12-07 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be seeing internal decay and we're not
2010-12-07 16:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to respect this
2010-12-07 16:44:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: from start to finish today-breadth got crushed
2010-12-07 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it ended up flat
2010-12-07 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that matters
2010-12-07 16:44:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: started out 9 to 1
2010-12-07 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the open...sure
2010-12-07 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't hold
2010-12-07 16:45:18 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: price also ended flat
2010-12-07 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we knew it wasn't likely it would
2010-12-07 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it did Tonny
2010-12-07 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be important
2010-12-07 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might be part of a strong uptrend as I mentioned at the beginning
2010-12-07 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we're all looking at the charts together
2010-12-07 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not seeing internal weakness here
2010-12-07 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing a pause
2010-12-07 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this could change tomorrow
2010-12-07 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the blueprint from two weeks ago would be vindicated
2010-12-07 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm doing here is sharing the idea that we might not get what we thought might happen
2010-12-07 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is now mounting evidence that "something different" is going on
2010-12-07 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like last week
2010-12-07 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's another "show me" time
2010-12-07 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if breadth of market is up strongly tomorrow
2010-12-07 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stays that way into the last hour
2010-12-07 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold your nose if you want...but it's a fairly good bet that we're seeing the train leaving Las Vegas on it's way to New York
2010-12-07 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go on
2010-12-07 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to support a bearish resolution here
2010-12-07 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have two view points
2010-12-07 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE is showing good strength
2010-12-07 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ is not so much weak as it is lagging
2010-12-07 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this could be part of a general allocation change with the bond market as the back drop
2010-12-07 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change with the NDX volume MCO
2010-12-07 16:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is where we see money flow weakness
2010-12-07 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where all other MCSUM's are flat to rising, this MCSUM continues to move lower
2010-12-07 16:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember
2010-12-07 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you're looking at the components
2010-12-07 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will notice that many of them are in snapbacks themselves between each other
2010-12-07 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-12-07 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the SPX volume components
2010-12-07 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the 10% Trend has now snapped back to the 5%
2010-12-07 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would entitle us to a bounce higher on Wednesday
2010-12-07 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe today's reversal was a way to clear out stops and leave the majority "hanging"??
2010-12-07 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we run right through this same price area with nothing impeding it?
2010-12-07 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just saying...
2010-12-07 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM found resistance at its zero line
2010-12-07 16:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX volume MCO is back to a sell
2010-12-07 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mixed market here
2010-12-07 16:55:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: generals retreating
2010-12-07 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this...it really is unlikely for the market to advance too much further
2010-12-07 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please understand that I have no clue what I'm going to see prior to these chats
2010-12-07 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everything I say is strictly off the top of my head as I move through the charts
2010-12-07 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it as you looking inside my head
2010-12-07 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a way to think things through...and understand the thought process as we look at this data
2010-12-07 16:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is likely and unlikely to happen
2010-12-07 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2010-12-07 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow and OEX look nothing like a breakout higher is imminent
2010-12-07 16:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader market does
2010-12-07 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you have this kind of situation...the most likely outcome would be for a chop
2010-12-07 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and instead of what we saw last month with the NDX leading and the NYSE lagging higher
2010-12-07 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around we're likely to see the NDX leading lower while the NYSE lags in this direction
2010-12-07 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...we're out of sync here but with a solid bullish bias
2010-12-07 16:59:05 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: How soon do we need to tank for the fish hooks still be fish hooks? Can we stay flat up here for a few days more?
2010-12-07 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that surprises will continue to come with the bulls
2010-12-07 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2010-12-07 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears MUST take charge quickly or this will get away from them
2010-12-07 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that hasn't changed and which led us to our chat about being careful
2010-12-07 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID data remains firm
2010-12-07 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO, however, is confirming its breadth cousin to the upside
2010-12-07 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-12-07 17:00:36 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I just found that we need a 5:1 up day tomorrow to take out the November MCO highs on the NYSE composite tomorrow
2010-12-07 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the SML volume MCSUM
2010-12-07 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're very close to taking out the November highs now
2010-12-07 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that can't be construed as anything but bullish
2010-12-07 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if we do get a pull back here
2010-12-07 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stocks that make up the SML should be first on your shopping list as possible buy candidates
2010-12-07 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-12-07 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going to short here
2010-12-07 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stay with the generals...and leave the troops alone
2010-12-07 17:02:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely!
2010-12-07 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM volume MCO
2010-12-07 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-12-07 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something wicked this way comes
2010-12-07 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which direction is still unknown
2010-12-07 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds and the MCSUM ledges say it should be down
2010-12-07 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCO's remain fairly firm here after 3 days of digestion
2010-12-07 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the volume oscillators tell us
2010-12-07 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "overbought"
2010-12-07 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind...that corrections can be that of price, time OR both
2010-12-07 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO's firm, and the MCSUM's suggesting more decay, it could very well be we chop along with a slight bearish bias for the next couple of days
2010-12-07 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would take us back to yesterday's idea of a pullback that pulls up short of the November lows with a lot of chop
2010-12-07 17:06:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I keep getting a B up C down tickle in my stomach
2010-12-07 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to frustrate the majority
2010-12-07 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that would be consistent to the divergent structures
2010-12-07 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the lack of decay in the MCO's suggest more of a triangle for C
2010-12-07 17:07:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not deep, just a bit more shaking both ways
2010-12-07 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: D up into the holidays
2010-12-07 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: E down after XMAS
2010-12-07 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-12-07 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a triangle
2010-12-07 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be perfect
2010-12-07 17:08:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: would serve
2010-12-07 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-07 17:08:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: making more sense
2010-12-07 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that's the best consensus...let's see if the Open 10's are "overbought" or not
2010-12-07 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .52
2010-12-07 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .79
2010-12-07 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2010-12-07 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2010-12-07 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then we more than likely have a triangle
2010-12-07 17:09:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-07 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...for those who don't understand how to apply Elliott here
2010-12-07 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in an Elliott triangle
2010-12-07 17:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it moves in 5 movements
2010-12-07 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: A-B-C-D-E
2010-12-07 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in ALL cases...a C wave is a dark side wave 3
2010-12-07 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has all of the characteristics of a 3rd wave but it's that of a correctional sequence
2010-12-07 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is to be a C wave
2010-12-07 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will see a tremendous amount of sentiment shifting to the bear side on any decline from here
2010-12-07 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pattern itself will pull up short of testing the bottom of A - in this case - the November lows
2010-12-07 17:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all cases
2010-12-07 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a B wave always has inconsistencies
2010-12-07 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we're seeing now
2010-12-07 17:13:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it does, for sure
2010-12-07 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the idea here, taking this all together, is for a move lower from here that will "FEEL" worse than it is
2010-12-07 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will end at a higher price level than the previous lows
2010-12-07 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this makes the best sense for now
2010-12-07 17:14:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny too, because the weakest areas are those that will have "eyes on"-kinda perfect
2010-12-07 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a tutorial on Elliott wave psychology that may help as well - http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=934308
2010-12-07 17:15:23 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks!
2010-12-07 17:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the strongest structures...the SML and MID...are already finished...they are impulsing higher
2010-12-07 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.29
2010-12-07 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93 - neutral
2010-12-07 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so based on this...the generals are going to take the blunt of the pullback here
2010-12-07 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .81
2010-12-07 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2010-12-07 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to watch for then
2010-12-07 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping our idea of a triangle here
2010-12-07 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for high TRIN numbers to show up
2010-12-07 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will then push lower the STVO and VTO's
2010-12-07 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder and faster we do this...the better
2010-12-07 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want to "FORCE" selling to occur
2010-12-07 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember one important thing about the markets
2010-12-07 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not people selling that make prices go lower, it's prices going lower that make people sell
2010-12-07 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today
2010-12-07 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equal and opposite
2010-12-07 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tax rates are extended, so the shorts were forced to cover at the open
2010-12-07 17:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: barely anyone shorted the close
2010-12-07 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2010-12-07 17:20:19 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I did
2010-12-07 17:20:23 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: And covered
2010-12-07 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you always short the close...you don't count! lol
2010-12-07 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh and covered
2010-12-07 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well good...glad to hear it
2010-12-07 17:20:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trin .25 at open=you are right on spot
2010-12-07 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (you did make a profit, right?)
2010-12-07 17:21:13 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Sure
2010-12-07 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure lol
2010-12-07 17:21:31 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: But covered at 2000 in NDX
2010-12-07 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes or no?
2010-12-07 17:21:38 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: to early
2010-12-07 17:21:45 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: yes
2010-12-07 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be careful here
2010-12-07 17:21:54 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: profit yes
2010-12-07 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2010-12-07 17:22:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I am thinking about a re-short tonight
2010-12-07 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would wait until the morning
2010-12-07 17:22:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2010-12-07 17:22:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'd wait
2010-12-07 17:22:40 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-12-07 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason being is, as you might remember earlier, the components are in a position for a bounce here
2010-12-07 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is triangle
2010-12-07 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be like fingernails across a chalk board - slow and sure...but tough to take
2010-12-07 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2010-12-07 17:24:10 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What do you mean price wise?
2010-12-07 17:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't a short term trend right now
2010-12-07 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be very choppy
2010-12-07 17:24:39 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-12-07 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a very mixed market here
2010-12-07 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cylinders are not in sync
2010-12-07 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the engine is sputtering
2010-12-07 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need a tune up
2010-12-07 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my my...
2010-12-07 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check this out - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/PVI.html
2010-12-07 17:26:16 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I was hoping to have a clear cut bearish divergence on the NYSE Composite MCO? That would mean a close above 7800. Do you think that is still doable?
2010-12-07 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of put buyers today
2010-12-07 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still there
2010-12-07 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's only the "potential" of one
2010-12-07 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not been triggered
2010-12-07 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the markets are always diverging by its very nature
2010-12-07 17:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you have to work with here is simple
2010-12-07 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the stronger of the divergences currently
2010-12-07 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was it last weeks confirmed bull?
2010-12-07 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or this weeks potential?
2010-12-07 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in a indecision pattern
2010-12-07 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we would prefer to have more texture to support the bulls...and that could be part of the bigger picture of the current potential of bearish divergences
2010-12-07 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: context is so important here
2010-12-07 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the end of the day
2010-12-07 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what position you want to exploit here
2010-12-07 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your trade is of super short duration
2010-12-07 17:29:35 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Sure
2010-12-07 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is no trend for scalpers right now
2010-12-07 17:30:08 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: what sort of duration would you expect for the c wave?
2010-12-07 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guideline under Elliott is two fold
2010-12-07 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each sequence of each wave sub set is generally .618 times the length of the prior structure
2010-12-07 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2010-12-07 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually lasts .618 times the time it took to trace out this same previous structure
2010-12-07 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let me look at the chart
2010-12-07 17:32:03 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What in the open 10 made you realize that the c wave down is the most probable scenario? The fact that it was overbought?
2010-12-07 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1196 is the objective for C on the cash SPX
2010-12-07 17:33:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect test of the breakout
2010-12-07 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in approximately 11 trading days
2010-12-07 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Tonny
2010-12-07 17:33:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: wow that is choppy
2010-12-07 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we're "overbought" on the NYSE Open 10
2010-12-07 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that the price structure, in this case wave B, is complete
2010-12-07 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was complete on December 3rd
2010-12-07 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to use Elliott that I have found is using a 1 ma - on a closing basis
2010-12-07 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that we topped out on Friday at 1224.71
2010-12-07 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now this is going to be a little complex here
2010-12-07 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's highs was a smaller B of the larger C down that we've been talking about
2010-12-07 17:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless, just remember in Elliott that everything has to be built on each time frame
2010-12-07 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a count is not a valid one, nor is a preferred one, unless you can take a larger time frame and then break it down to the 5 minute period while using the strict guidelines that make up the methodology
2010-12-07 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else and your guessing
2010-12-07 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will likely be incorrect
2010-12-07 17:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I must stress
2010-12-07 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that Elliott is only a way to label a price pattern
2010-12-07 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's real magic comes with the psychology that accompanies, and therefore confirms, each labeling technique
2010-12-07 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would concentrate on the tutorial...it will be your best primer with this area of analysis
2010-12-07 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatcha think Lew?
2010-12-07 17:39:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: totally agree
2010-12-07 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes the most amount of sense
2010-12-07 17:40:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and I like the look of the market much better after this talk
2010-12-07 17:40:08 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Today's volume in SPX was the biggest in several months
2010-12-07 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be lots of shorts covering
2010-12-07 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-07 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of traders were betting that many were going to have to sell to take advantage of the capital gains taxes going up
2010-12-07 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't need to do that anymore
2010-12-07 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we were knocking on prior point of reversal
2010-12-07 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why take a chance of being blown out?
2010-12-07 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could also be that much of the trading today was futures and/or options that were due to expire next week
2010-12-07 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WWW is tomorrow
2010-12-07 17:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a day ahead of time? (note: I later found out that Citi traded close to half the volume on the exchange today - 3.2 billion shares)
2010-12-07 17:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line here is that, like it's been for about a month now, it's going to continue to be choppy
2010-12-07 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we're hitting the best we can and then banking
2010-12-07 17:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in sticking around
2010-12-07 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's likely that the market will reverse just as quickly as it moved in one direction or the other
2010-12-07 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed as far as that's concerned
2010-12-07 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-12-07 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2010-12-07 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Thursday is our last chat for a week
2010-12-07 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during my holiday you folks are more than welcomed to get together to talk market - the chat room will be available
2010-12-07 17:45:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: superb work tonight, I love the way you put the pieces into place with an open mind = it is making me better
2010-12-07 17:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the following week...we will have a Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday to make up for next week - the 21st, 22nd and 23rd
2010-12-07 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you guys decide on Thursday what you want to do
2010-12-07 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..it's always tough when you're in a trading range
2010-12-07 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market internals are not agreeing with each other
2010-12-07 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I find it best to see things without any prejudice before I come in here
2010-12-07 17:47:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: works well
2010-12-07 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no predetermined direction
2010-12-07 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I hope so
2010-12-07 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hope that everyone gets something out of it
2010-12-07 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2010-12-07 17:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going take off
2010-12-07 17:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-12-07 17:47:59 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: You too
2010-12-07 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on Thursday
2010-12-07 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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