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Posts: 5,160
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-01-26 16:00:14 fib1618: good day
2016-01-26 16:00:17 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-01-26 16:01:02 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2016-01-26 16:01:21 fib1618: doing fine...a bit tired though
2016-01-26 16:01:42 fib1618: which is funny because I probably slept for half of the weekend
2016-01-26 16:01:55 fib1618: guess I slept too much [smile]
2016-01-26 16:02:16 thespookyone: can happen
2016-01-26 16:04:25 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we dig into today's data??
2016-01-26 16:04:50 thespookyone: Rally was OK, didn't care for the look of the TRIN
2016-01-26 16:05:20 fib1618: noted
2016-01-26 16:05:57 fib1618: well...we should had broken above blip resistance today in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:06:14 fib1618: the last remaining piece to the puzzle
2016-01-26 16:06:25 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-01-26 16:06:54 fib1618: after breaking above blip resistance on Friday
2016-01-26 16:07:01 fib1618: and finding zero line resistance on Monday
2016-01-26 16:07:11 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2016-01-26 16:07:19 fib1618: and now resides back in positive territory
2016-01-26 16:07:39 fib1618: we also have a positive crossover in the components today
2016-01-26 16:07:47 fib1618: but both remain below their zero lines
2016-01-26 16:07:58 fib1618: which then tells us that we're in correctional sequence
2016-01-26 16:08:07 fib1618: and not the start of anything trending to the upside
2016-01-26 16:08:57 fib1618: the next important hurdle in front of the buyers now is the +25 level in the MCO
2016-01-26 16:09:30 fib1618: where we should see initial resistance...and then a snapback to the MCO zero line would then be expected
2016-01-26 16:09:49 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-01-26 16:10:13 fib1618: and we see that this back and forth action in and around the CO MCO zero line is causing the postings to move sideways
2016-01-26 16:10:55 fib1618: and until we see a more positive move in the 10% Trend towards its zero line
2016-01-26 16:11:08 fib1618: this congestion area well may continue into the end of the week
2016-01-26 16:11:36 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:11:46 fib1618: and we barely made back above the zero line today
2016-01-26 16:11:53 fib1618: no less blip resistance
2016-01-26 16:12:07 fib1618: not a good showing given the nominal move in prices today
2016-01-26 16:12:19 fib1618: but this is part and parcel of every bear market rally
2016-01-26 16:13:00 fib1618: where prices seem to shout the loudest when all being done is filling vacuum points within the trending structure
2016-01-26 16:13:30 fib1618: looks like the NYA closed just below Friday's close today
2016-01-26 16:13:40 fib1618: but with the MCO leading to a new high
2016-01-26 16:13:56 fib1618: it's possible that we'll break above this level as soon as tomorrow
2016-01-26 16:14:43 fib1618: but the buyers will need to flex their muscles to move up and away from the blip resistance point in order to "clear the tower"
2016-01-26 16:15:35 fib1618: upside target for now is around the 9550 level on the NYA index
2016-01-26 16:16:11 fib1618: and where we have the 20 day EMA now trending lower at the 9584 level which will provide price pattern resistance for this correction phase
2016-01-26 16:17:20 fib1618: not a lot of viscosity here for the engine to work with
2016-01-26 16:17:47 fib1618: sort of like trying to get the engine of a Model T going by cranking the handle and it sputters and spits and then dies on you
2016-01-26 16:18:16 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:18:27 fib1618: and here we also moved up and through the zero line today
2016-01-26 16:19:05 fib1618: with a small positive crossover in the NASDAQ MCO components
2016-01-26 16:19:24 fib1618: still...we remain out of sync between the MCO and the Components
2016-01-26 16:19:31 fib1618: no less...the MCO and the MCSUM
2016-01-26 16:19:51 fib1618: so choppy, volatile behavior is usually the result of such situations
2016-01-26 16:20:14 tuna: could a ledge be forming on the MCSUM?
2016-01-26 16:20:23 fib1618: we see that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is trying its best to hold natural support at the -1000 level
2016-01-26 16:20:48 fib1618: but there's still not a lot of information as yet to say whether this will be successful or not
2016-01-26 16:21:37 fib1618: upside price target for now is 4625
2016-01-26 16:21:47 fib1618: it could be a ledge...yes
2016-01-26 16:22:02 fib1618: we'll know better by Thursday
2016-01-26 16:22:26 fib1618: it's just a matter of whether we stay in around the MCO zero line or not
2016-01-26 16:22:43 fib1618: but so looks like a typical bear market counter trend relief rally
2016-01-26 16:22:51 fib1618: and if that's the case
2016-01-26 16:22:56 fib1618: then the ledge is likely
2016-01-26 16:23:04 fib1618: and then we go for a bottom
2016-01-26 16:23:18 fib1618: which would co-ordinate with an Elliott 5th wave
2016-01-26 16:23:38 fib1618: 20 day EMA on the NASDAQ is 4672
2016-01-26 16:23:54 fib1618: so that might be enough in the tank to get to around 4650
2016-01-26 16:24:04 fib1618: before the final shoe drops
2016-01-26 16:24:33 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO barely made it to a higher high today
2016-01-26 16:24:54 fib1618: it's no wonder that the secondaries didn't show the kind of strength we saw in the large caps
2016-01-26 16:25:24 fib1618: we had a positive crossover on the NDX components
2016-01-26 16:25:47 fib1618: though they also remain in negative territory
2016-01-26 16:26:11 fib1618: and we know that this is important because it tells us that the 19 and 39 day EMA's of the NDX A/D line continue to move lower
2016-01-26 16:26:23 fib1618: and if they continue to move lower while prices move higher
2016-01-26 16:26:45 fib1618: this creates a vacuum point in which a price reset is likely to take place
2016-01-26 16:27:02 fib1618: and why we do get these volatile, choppy sessions
2016-01-26 16:27:34 fib1618: as trends in prices can only occur if the directional flow of money is in agreement on all time levels
2016-01-26 16:27:50 fib1618: back to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:28:18 fib1618: and we do note that its structure has the most amount of texture right now
2016-01-26 16:28:44 fib1618: so once the market begins to build a better platform so that it can rally off of this foundation
2016-01-26 16:28:52 fib1618: the NDX group of stocks should lead
2016-01-26 16:28:55 fib1618: until...
2016-01-26 16:29:04 fib1618: the pattern of higher lows is broken
2016-01-26 16:29:30 fib1618: nice follow through move to the upside today in the SPX breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:29:49 fib1618: as it too is supporting a nice sequence of bottoms above bottoms at this time
2016-01-26 16:29:55 fib1618: but with a close at +20
2016-01-26 16:30:25 fib1618: it will be important near term for the buyers to move above the +25 level in order to maintain their short term control of the pattern
2016-01-26 16:30:42 fib1618: otherwise a snapback to or toward the SPX MCO zero line would be our next technical expectation as soon as Wednesday
2016-01-26 16:31:26 fib1618: lower closing high today compared with Friday as well will initially be looked upon as a rally failure
2016-01-26 16:31:52 fib1618: so we should know very quickly on Wednesday whether the buyers want to move things forward or not
2016-01-26 16:32:13 fib1618: we'll call the upside target for now at 1925
2016-01-26 16:32:34 fib1618: with the 20 day EMA trending lower at 1935
2016-01-26 16:32:58 fib1618: and moving lower at around 3 points a day
2016-01-26 16:33:27 fib1618: so maybe by Friday...and then a sell off into the jobs data next week??
2016-01-26 16:33:47 fib1618: rumors now is that the FED will not raise rates until the summer
2016-01-26 16:34:05 fib1618: and you can bet beyond that given the Presidential race
2016-01-26 16:34:46 fib1618: hey...that's right now...the FED meeting is right now
2016-01-26 16:35:24 fib1618: and the FED Watch tool is showing an 85% chance of a 1/4 point increase tomorrow
2016-01-26 16:35:35 fib1618: (don't get me started)
2016-01-26 16:36:17 fib1618: but the rest of the year is showing no more increases for the rest of the year
2016-01-26 16:36:21 fib1618: we'll see
2016-01-26 16:36:46 thespookyone: ridiculous..
2016-01-26 16:36:57 thespookyone: (a raise)
2016-01-26 16:36:59 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCSUM looks to be consolidating here
2016-01-26 16:37:13 fib1618: let's not get aggravated
2016-01-26 16:37:20 fib1618: we have no control
2016-01-26 16:37:20 thespookyone: LOL
2016-01-26 16:37:30 fib1618: always asleep at the wheel
2016-01-26 16:37:36 fib1618: and now we have a woman driver! [smile]
2016-01-26 16:37:51 thespookyone: yep, makes me miss the old regime
2016-01-26 16:38:13 fib1618: Yellen has surprised somewhat
2016-01-26 16:38:32 fib1618: but it may be an attempt to show that she can make the hard decisions
2016-01-26 16:38:40 fib1618: may not be the good ones
2016-01-26 16:38:46 fib1618: just the hard ones
2016-01-26 16:38:55 fib1618: what's different though
2016-01-26 16:38:55 thespookyone: beat me to it, LOL
2016-01-26 16:39:00 fib1618: is that there is no inflation
2016-01-26 16:39:07 fib1618: at least commodity wise
2016-01-26 16:39:19 fib1618: and the bonds are certainly not expecting any inflation
2016-01-26 16:39:34 fib1618: so what exactly is raising the cost of money going to do in helping economic activity?
2016-01-26 16:39:48 fib1618: "stagflation"
2016-01-26 16:39:54 fib1618: not pretty
2016-01-26 16:40:33 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2016-01-26 16:40:48 fib1618: so we seem to have good synchronicity right now
2016-01-26 16:40:53 fib1618: with the zero line snapback on Friday
2016-01-26 16:40:59 fib1618: the pullback on Monday
2016-01-26 16:41:02 fib1618: and the higher high today
2016-01-26 16:41:13 fib1618: very typical of a relief rally
2016-01-26 16:41:17 fib1618: step by step
2016-01-26 16:41:20 fib1618: inch by inch
2016-01-26 16:41:46 fib1618: we'll also note that the OEX breadth MCO is at the +27 level
2016-01-26 16:41:51 fib1618: so either we hit a wall
2016-01-26 16:41:59 fib1618: and snapback to the zero line
2016-01-26 16:42:10 fib1618: or punch though it
2016-01-26 16:43:23 fib1618: given that the other MCO's look a bit on the lethargic side
2016-01-26 16:43:38 fib1618: any punch to higher highs will tend to be accompanied by some fanfare
2016-01-26 16:44:34 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the Dow breadth MCO
2016-01-26 16:45:13 fib1618: with an upside price target of around 16,350
2016-01-26 16:45:48 fib1618: 20 day EMA there is currently at 16,459 and declining
2016-01-26 16:46:10 fib1618: so another 100 points of upside wouldn't be surprising
2016-01-26 16:46:45 fib1618: with the 20 day EMA moving at a pace of around 30 points a day
2016-01-26 16:46:57 fib1618: so maybe by Thursday?
2016-01-26 16:47:18 fib1618: how prices interact with the 20 will tell us a lot going into next week
2016-01-26 16:47:50 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO also made it back above its zero line
2016-01-26 16:48:02 fib1618: but like the other index charts
2016-01-26 16:48:08 fib1618: the components remain below their zero lines
2016-01-26 16:48:27 fib1618: so your everyday basic counter trend rally is in progress
2016-01-26 16:48:59 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO also joined the party today of moving back above its zero line
2016-01-26 16:49:27 fib1618: as the SML breadth MCSUM continues to attempt to hold natural support at the -1000 level
2016-01-26 16:50:02 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO makes it a clean sweep as it also made it back above its zero line
2016-01-26 16:50:10 fib1618: while the components remain in negative territory
2016-01-26 16:50:13 fib1618: so...
2016-01-26 16:50:36 fib1618: pretty much as expected after Friday's break from the downside pressure
2016-01-26 16:51:07 fib1618: zero line resistance...and quick follow through back above the MCO zero line(s) now suggest that a pattern of consolidation is to be expected
2016-01-26 16:51:20 fib1618: either that of a trading range or the infamous triangle
2016-01-26 16:51:32 fib1618: both of which would be consistent to an Elliott 4th wave
2016-01-26 16:51:53 fib1618: before a final purge is likely to be seen over the next couple of weeks
2016-01-26 16:51:58 fib1618: for the buyers
2016-01-26 16:52:10 fib1618: the more we see readings above the +25 level
2016-01-26 16:52:19 fib1618: the better, and longer the consolidation
2016-01-26 16:52:25 fib1618: and this would then point to the triangle
2016-01-26 16:52:33 fib1618: anything aside from this
2016-01-26 16:52:38 fib1618: would be our trading range
2016-01-26 16:52:54 fib1618: of which we'll likely cap at the levels mentioned earlier in the chat
2016-01-26 16:53:03 fib1618: chart wise
2016-01-26 16:53:19 fib1618: we'll now see a lot of EMA play
2016-01-26 16:53:23 fib1618: resistance at the 20
2016-01-26 16:53:26 fib1618: sell off
2016-01-26 16:53:31 fib1618: break above the 20
2016-01-26 16:53:36 fib1618: find resistance at the 50
2016-01-26 16:53:39 fib1618: snapback to the 20
2016-01-26 16:53:54 fib1618: and then the final effort to move above the 50 and turning the 20 day higher
2016-01-26 16:54:11 fib1618: and then we'll deal with the 200 day when and if this happens
2016-01-26 16:54:16 fib1618:'s going to take a while
2016-01-26 16:54:42 fib1618: and that doesn't even include some trips and falls before now and then
2016-01-26 16:55:03 fib1618: a cursory view of the sector MCO's
2016-01-26 16:55:17 fib1618: shows that the XLY breadth MCO is showing good constructive evidence of a bottom
2016-01-26 16:55:58 fib1618: it just needs to clear the +50 level if prices are going to have any chance to get prices back to the $77 level
2016-01-26 16:56:21 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO is showing some renewed interest
2016-01-26 16:56:49 fib1618: as the XLP breadth MCSUM attempts to make a stand near the -500 level
2016-01-26 16:57:16 fib1618: the line in the sand for the XLE breadth MCSUM seems to be at the -1500 level
2016-01-26 16:57:36 fib1618: but there's still not a lot of texture there to call a bottom
2016-01-26 16:57:57 fib1618: looks like a small triangle formation on the XLF price chart
2016-01-26 16:58:17 fib1618: with only a zero line snapback in the XLF breadth MCO accomplished today
2016-01-26 16:58:21 fib1618: still very weak overall
2016-01-26 16:58:45 fib1618: no love for the XLV breadth MCO today
2016-01-26 16:58:58 fib1618: as the XLV breadth MCSUM is now playing with the -500 level
2016-01-26 16:59:30 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO is looking like the market itself right now
2016-01-26 16:59:49 fib1618: and in need of more muscle to generate enough energy to keep things moving higher
2016-01-26 17:00:15 fib1618: same with the XLB breadth MCO
2016-01-26 17:00:26 fib1618: with the XLK breadth MCO now back to the +25 level
2016-01-26 17:00:38 fib1618: so it wouldn't be surprising if we see a snapback to the MCO zero line there as soon as tomorrow
2016-01-26 17:01:08 fib1618: and the entire story of the XLU can be told by just glancing at the XLU breadth MCSUM
2016-01-26 17:01:24 fib1618: with the buyers standing their high ground...but nothing more than that
2016-01-26 17:01:41 fib1618: more like defensive positioning if anything else
2016-01-26 17:01:48 fib1618: let's see how the volume McClellan's are doing
2016-01-26 17:02:43 fib1618: the NYSE CO and NYSE Composite volume MCO's and MCSUM's continue to play the "identical twins" card
2016-01-26 17:02:55 fib1618: as both moved up and through their zero lines on the MCO's
2016-01-26 17:03:02 fib1618: while both are holding at the -1250 level
2016-01-26 17:03:08 fib1618: not a lot there to go with right now
2016-01-26 17:03:24 fib1618: although they also remain sync with their breadth cousins
2016-01-26 17:03:47 fib1618: mixed picture with the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's
2016-01-26 17:04:05 fib1618: as the Composite has only snapped back to its zero line
2016-01-26 17:04:16 fib1618: while the NDX is showing better participation of a higher high
2016-01-26 17:05:05 fib1618: we also note that the NDX volume MCSUM is in progress right now of attempting to hold horizontal pattern support
2016-01-26 17:05:26 fib1618: though like their breadth counterparts
2016-01-26 17:05:38 fib1618: the volume components remain negative at this time
2016-01-26 17:05:59 fib1618: further suggesting that we're in a corrective sequence
2016-01-26 17:06:41 fib1618: we'll call the SPX, OEX and Dow volume MCO's constructive for now
2016-01-26 17:07:23 fib1618: but much of this is more momentum off of last Friday's sharp intake of renewed breadth than anything that would have promise for the bulls
2016-01-26 17:08:13 fib1618: and the MID, SML and TM volume MCO's are pretty much echoing their breadth cousins
2016-01-26 17:08:18 fib1618: in fact
2016-01-26 17:08:44 fib1618: it's nice to see how things are pretty much unanimous in their sequences right now
2016-01-26 17:09:01 fib1618: which usually means we're trending on an intermediate term basis
2016-01-26 17:09:05 fib1618: in this case
2016-01-26 17:09:12 fib1618: sideways to up for the short term
2016-01-26 17:09:17 fib1618: but down for the intermediate term
2016-01-26 17:09:20 fib1618: so...
2016-01-26 17:09:47 fib1618: the market is finally trying to work off its excesses from the last 4 weeks of negative action
2016-01-26 17:10:03 fib1618: and so far finding it difficult to break out its doldrums in that respect
2016-01-26 17:10:13 fib1618: much of this seems to be technical in nature
2016-01-26 17:10:31 fib1618: so we'll just go with the flow until the flow changes direction
2016-01-26 17:10:39 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2016-01-26 17:11:14 fib1618: STVO's are now neutral
2016-01-26 17:11:46 fib1618: and so we might have the same kind of hesitation point tomorrow as we did on Monday with the MCO zero line snapbacks
2016-01-26 17:11:59 fib1618: before we finish the week near "overbought" levels
2016-01-26 17:12:22 fib1618: looks like the VTO's are finally sitting up after being smacked to the floor over the last couple of weeks
2016-01-26 17:12:41 fib1618: so maybe the STVO's move to "overbought" while the VTO's move to their zero lines?
2016-01-26 17:12:48 fib1618: and then the final flush can occur?
2016-01-26 17:12:59 fib1618: speculation, of course
2016-01-26 17:13:22 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .51
2016-01-26 17:13:25 fib1618: short covering
2016-01-26 17:13:35 fib1618: no wonder nothing looks exciting
2016-01-26 17:13:46 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2016-01-26 17:14:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .73
2016-01-26 17:14:11 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2016-01-26 17:14:25 fib1618: TM TRIN at .74
2016-01-26 17:14:34 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2016-01-26 17:14:56 fib1618: did you notice how we disengaged from China today?
2016-01-26 17:15:07 fib1618: it's now following us it would seem
2016-01-26 17:15:14 fib1618: so...
2016-01-26 17:15:28 fib1618: the near term expectation is for some additional backing and filling tomorrow
2016-01-26 17:15:53 fib1618: and we'll have to see what the boys and girls in Washington decide to do
2016-01-26 17:15:56 fib1618: wait
2016-01-26 17:16:01 fib1618: did they work today?
2016-01-26 17:16:25 fib1618: I heard the the Federal Government couldn't function with so much snow on the ground [frown]
2016-01-26 17:16:28 fib1618: was the FED included?
2016-01-26 17:17:02 fib1618: I don't see anything on this
2016-01-26 17:17:09 fib1618: I guess we'll find out tomorrow
2016-01-26 17:17:17 fib1618: and if no statement
2016-01-26 17:17:26 fib1618: that would fit nicely with a back and fill day
2016-01-26 17:17:31 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-01-26 17:18:21 fib1618: -75
2016-01-26 17:18:24 fib1618: no change
2016-01-26 17:18:39 fib1618: and so our defensive stance
2016-01-26 17:18:43 fib1618: anything else?
2016-01-26 17:19:33 fib1618: Apple at 20 day EMA resistance
2016-01-26 17:19:38 fib1618: did they have their earnings today?
2016-01-26 17:20:19 fib1618: might have a double top in NFLX
2016-01-26 17:20:48 fib1618: wow...IBM looks horrible
2016-01-26 17:21:07 fib1618: T continues to make new highs
2016-01-26 17:21:43 fib1618: hey
2016-01-26 17:21:46 thespookyone: aapl did report, beat by 5 cents
2016-01-26 17:21:58 fib1618: did you know that AT&T is at all time highs?
2016-01-26 17:22:16 fib1618: going back to 1985
2016-01-26 17:22:21 fib1618: which goes to show
2016-01-26 17:22:29 fib1618: anytime they take a stock out of the Dow
2016-01-26 17:22:30 fib1618: buy it
2016-01-26 17:23:13 fib1618: and if you want your stock to make all time highs
2016-01-26 17:23:24 fib1618: just expand your breakfast menu to 24 hours
2016-01-26 17:23:30 fib1618: look at MCD go!
2016-01-26 17:24:01 fib1618: so there's two stocks at all time highs in spite of the weakness of the last few weeks
2016-01-26 17:24:09 fib1618: and...they're defensive issues
2016-01-26 17:25:15 fib1618: which goes to prove
2016-01-26 17:25:37 fib1618: there are always products out there to trade - up or down - you just have to look for them
2016-01-26 17:25:56 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-01-26 17:26:00 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-01-26 17:26:05 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-01-26 17:26:11 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2016-01-26 17:26:13 fib1618: good night

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