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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-06 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-06 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-06 16:00:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Well, thx
2011-12-06 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gonna get pretty exciting here very soon...you guys all ready?
2011-12-06 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-06 16:02:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how exciting? LOL
2011-12-06 16:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very
2011-12-06 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-12-06 16:02:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet
2011-12-06 16:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's put up or run and hide time for the bulls
2011-12-06 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that was as of yesterday
2011-12-06 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't think we made any real progress today...
2011-12-06 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess I'll see in a moment
2011-12-06 16:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...without further adieu
2011-12-06 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get DP up and see what we have to work with
2011-12-06 16:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was flat today - 1537/1487
2011-12-06 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll probably have some small point changes tonight
2011-12-06 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2011-12-06 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above its zero line on Monday
2011-12-06 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO pull back a bit today
2011-12-06 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls it is imperative now that they move above the double top highs we see at the beginning of November really quickly here
2011-12-06 16:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're about to run out of the momentum that carried the market higher last Wednesday
2011-12-06 16:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to see how important this time frame is for the bulls
2011-12-06 16:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we look at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now completed a simple snapback to just below its zero line
2011-12-06 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -25
2011-12-06 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price structure of the NYA now testing the highs of this same early November period, it becomes important that the bulls move back above the MCSUM zero line quickly or we're likely to have a rally failure
2011-12-06 16:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the intermediate breadth in negative territory
2011-12-06 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this exhaustion will tend to be quite turbulent as prices free fall to where they should be with all things being equal
2011-12-06 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be at the Black Friday lows
2011-12-06 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at this is that this vacuum created out of very little buying has no structural support
2011-12-06 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be filled with a high degree of velocity
2011-12-06 16:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bulls side right now
2011-12-06 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the components that make up this MCO are both over their zero line
2011-12-06 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are in a bullish crossover configuration
2011-12-06 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we can see by the individual postings on the MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is very little in the way of strength here
2011-12-06 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it really becomes a near term do or die situation
2011-12-06 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping us from going all in on the short side, however, is that we are still a bit away from making higher price highs as is the expectation by the MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we, by some chance, do continue to climb to meet that objective
2011-12-06 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO remains below the early November highs
2011-12-06 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the danger will continue to grow at a slightly higher level of commencement
2011-12-06 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-12-06 16:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have our anticipated small point change tonight
2011-12-06 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2011-12-06 16:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM here
2011-12-06 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have struggled higher after finding support at around the +200 level
2011-12-06 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this MCSUM can not move to at least the +250 level by tomorrow
2011-12-06 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would likely have a fishhook in process
2011-12-06 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean that we would see a resumption of the current trend to lower lows
2011-12-06 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where the zero line would be our minimal expectation
2011-12-06 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just updated the time scale on the cumulative charts for next weekend
2011-12-06 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let me upload the NYAD combo and we can take a look at it
2011-12-06 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad120611.png
2011-12-06 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYAD breadth MCSUM first
2011-12-06 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we're attempting to find snapback support at the current time
2011-12-06 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I marked this line as "important" for a couple of reasons
2011-12-06 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first, of course, is the snapback potential of a simple correctional structure that it should find support at was previous resistance
2011-12-06 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other is that the line pretty much falls at the +200 level
2011-12-06 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is close enough for +250 support to come into the market
2011-12-06 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if we do happen to break this snapback support
2011-12-06 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our divergent support line comes in at around the -100 level on the chart
2011-12-06 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be the more important support level for this correction sequence that was "supposed to" last until the end of the year
2011-12-06 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the calendar of events here
2011-12-06 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have WWW tomorrow
2011-12-06 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the heaviest quarterly settlement month of OPEX of the year
2011-12-06 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a week from Friday
2011-12-06 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just the usual end of year selling with a capital gains rate still at 15%
2011-12-06 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point, there hasn't been any extension that I've heard about on the cap gains taxes
2011-12-06 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2011-12-06 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would revert back to what it was prior to the Bush Tax cuts
2011-12-06 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which I think was 25%
2011-12-06 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any bad news here is not likely to be taken with high degree of understanding
2011-12-06 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the way the MCSUM hasn't been able to show any rush to buy here
2011-12-06 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things could get rather interesting here in the near term
2011-12-06 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh, yea
2011-12-06 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the "brain trust" of the EU meeting again this coming weekend
2011-12-06 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they again fail to get their act together
2011-12-06 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blah blah blah...
2011-12-06 16:25:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, I truly wonder which politicians are more inept-ours or theirs?
2011-12-06 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm also reading that there is a bank run going on right now in Greece
2011-12-06 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people are pulling out their savings
2011-12-06 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which isn't going to make things any better for their economic outlook
2011-12-06 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the countries who have shown their support in this venture
2011-12-06 16:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of them Lew
2011-12-06 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2011-12-06 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not to get into a political discussion here
2011-12-06 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of this is the fault of Keynesian economics
2011-12-06 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unfortunately, it's really too late to do anything about it
2011-12-06 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for 60 years it's been a ticking time bomb
2011-12-06 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it goes off now
2011-12-06 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe in 6 months
2011-12-06 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it really is inevitable
2011-12-06 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we do what we can
2011-12-06 16:29:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I don't think the Europeans grasp their time line properly-visa vie the markets
2011-12-06 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's all so important that no matter what your political/economic opinion here is
2011-12-06 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the priority is for capital preservation and to keep that same money working for you at all times
2011-12-06 16:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they ARE politicians
2011-12-06 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are a different animal
2011-12-06 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like I said
2011-12-06 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have been ahhhh...trained...to think like they do
2011-12-06 16:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-12-06 16:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...on to the NASDAQ
2011-12-06 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation here with the NASDAQ breadth MCO as it is with the NYSE data
2011-12-06 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see it snapping back to its -250 level
2011-12-06 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have one snapping back to zero
2011-12-06 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another to the around the +250 level
2011-12-06 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the weakest (the secondaries) to the -250 level
2011-12-06 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is all the market can do on a technical bounce
2011-12-06 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to then deduce that the path of LEAST RESISTANCE here is now to the downside just by the very indication of a lack of post expansions to the upside during this bounce
2011-12-06 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls, it would seem, even with the tremendous rally that developed last week
2011-12-06 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are still having problems finding a larger majority to believe in this same direction
2011-12-06 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM in a correction right now...probably a fishhook, but if it fails to move higher tomorrow, it could also be a ledge
2011-12-06 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ledges are made to.....?
2011-12-06 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: class?
2011-12-06 16:35:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fall off of
2011-12-06 16:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir...to fall off of
2011-12-06 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2011-12-06 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the NDX breadth MCO is now back at its zero line after moving slightly above it yesterday
2011-12-06 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we can see how the structure of the NDX breadth MCSUM seems to be slipping to the downside
2011-12-06 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here as well that both of the NDX breadth components could not move above their zero lines as yet
2011-12-06 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the cream issues of the NASDAQ marketplace remain lethargic here
2011-12-06 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not indicating any real buying excitement in spite of all the pomp and circumstance of the last week
2011-12-06 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM has also now snapped back to its +250 level
2011-12-06 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a small point change in the OEX breadth MCO today
2011-12-06 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't look at all that the OEX breadth MCSUM is going to have too much success of snapping back towards its +500 level either
2011-12-06 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-12-06 16:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is trying its very best to find SUPPORT at its +500 level
2011-12-06 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the good news here
2011-12-06 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that since the OEX and Dow remain near minimal "overbought" levels
2011-12-06 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will tend to keep these two index' from falling apart too much here
2011-12-06 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-12-06 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 1000 point Dow decline to the Black Friday lows is certainly something that can be done given the broader markets decreasing buoyancy at this time
2011-12-06 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM looks to be tracing out a classic ledge pattern here
2011-12-06 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reading of +126
2011-12-06 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't take more than 3 trading days from this juncture to test the zero line here
2011-12-06 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here
2011-12-06 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the MID breadth MCSUM is attempting to give us a simple snapback to what was trend line support that was broken last week
2011-12-06 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same week in which prices were zooming higher
2011-12-06 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here a nice example of how the market can be two faced...telling you straight on that everything is fine, but at the same time, not having a lot of conviction in saying so
2011-12-06 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beautiful ledge formation on the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is a classic ledge
2011-12-06 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be moving to the downside here in the next two days
2011-12-06 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as ledges tend to be 2-4 day pattern structures
2011-12-06 16:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was day 2
2011-12-06 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause
2011-12-06 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and quite a weak pause at that
2011-12-06 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a gap higher here is sorely needed for the bulls to even gain traction
2011-12-06 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-12-06 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM is just below its zero line
2011-12-06 16:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-06 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the table is set here
2011-12-06 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bulls have a slight advantage based on their distance from the MCO zero line
2011-12-06 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the intermediate term pattern is not showing too much enthusiasm at this juncture
2011-12-06 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then becomes highly important that the bulls
2011-12-06 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we talked about last Tuesday
2011-12-06 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they step up, right here, right now, or they will be in a whole lot of hurt
2011-12-06 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this time
2011-12-06 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a rally failure which is like taking a stick and taking out the base of a house of cards
2011-12-06 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now for some good news
2011-12-06 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money continues to pour into the Bond CEF's where we had new all time highs last week on the A/D line
2011-12-06 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE Preferred stocks A/D line continues to hug its rising bottoms line from last year
2011-12-06 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything
2011-12-06 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do have a resumption of the decline here to fill the void left by last weeks "too far, too fast"
2011-12-06 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will again NOT be a cause by a lack of liquidity
2011-12-06 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be caused by panic
2011-12-06 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or desperation
2011-12-06 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or disappointment
2011-12-06 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...in this case...giving up
2011-12-06 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and going to cash in spite of getting a small return for your participation
2011-12-06 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know here is simple
2011-12-06 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can not continue to move higher without some sort of support mechanism to keep the price structure from collapsing
2011-12-06 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a reset would be the best we can ask for
2011-12-06 16:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there begin the process of building a base to where prices will have the support to maintain a rising structure
2011-12-06 16:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then let's take a quick look at the sector breadth charts before we hit the volume McClellan's
2011-12-06 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM did find support at around its zero line
2011-12-06 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that there is some good post expansion to the upside
2011-12-06 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls here
2011-12-06 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes really simple
2011-12-06 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they must be able to move the MCSUM up above the +250 level as quickly as they can
2011-12-06 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now we have a reading of +149
2011-12-06 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can't do this
2011-12-06 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we suddenly stall out here
2011-12-06 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we would have a Summation Failure pattern in place
2011-12-06 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Summation Failures are VERY dangerous as their usual outcome
2011-12-06 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for as the MCSUM tops out and then move back lower
2011-12-06 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then cross below the zero line
2011-12-06 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a "crash like" event can and will happen as the exhaustion of the bulls recent run up has no more backers
2011-12-06 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears pounce on the buyers with great force
2011-12-06 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like you would see on the Animal Channel when a cat chases after its prey
2011-12-06 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will let run the prey to exhaustion
2011-12-06 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then pounce on it with little in the way of fight
2011-12-06 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch this sector for clues here
2011-12-06 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLP breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here we have a classic MCSUM pattern of seeing a higher highs in the pattern in the middle of November
2011-12-06 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that energy has ran out and the MCSUM started to decline
2011-12-06 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the momentum of this same fuel being able to push prices to higher highs
2011-12-06 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-12-06 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see lower levels in the MCSUM
2011-12-06 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is classic bear divergence here
2011-12-06 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the bulls can move to higher highs
2011-12-06 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are likely seeing a termination to the upside for prices in this sector as we speak
2011-12-06 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO here
2011-12-06 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change
2011-12-06 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're still below last weeks highs
2011-12-06 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without the MCO moving to higher highs in the next couple of days
2011-12-06 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be highly likely that we've seen a price top here in this sector
2011-12-06 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a confirmation of this would come when the MCO moves down and through the zero line again
2011-12-06 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's also interesting here
2011-12-06 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that with the higher highs in prices
2011-12-06 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now fulfills the expectation of seeing higher prices than that of last April as indicated by the MCSUM when it moved back above the +500 level in October
2011-12-06 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all upside technical targets have now been fulfilled
2011-12-06 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all upside price targets have been minimally met as well
2011-12-06 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's up to the bulls to change the current negative condition here
2011-12-06 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be done?
2011-12-06 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll soon see
2011-12-06 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO remains in and around its zero line
2011-12-06 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so neither side has a clue on what to do here
2011-12-06 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCSUM, however, and we can a nice slope in the pattern tilting to the downside
2011-12-06 17:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the bulls belly up here in the near term
2011-12-06 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we're going to pick up the pace to the downside
2011-12-06 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM, like the NYSE composite MCSUM, has now snapped back to the +250 level
2011-12-06 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and actually
2011-12-06 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not that close right now...supporting a current reading of +198
2011-12-06 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls are trying their best to bring some interest here to their side
2011-12-06 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by showing their muscles on an external basis
2011-12-06 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally
2011-12-06 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless they have some steroids here
2011-12-06 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not happening
2011-12-06 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO remains in around its zero line
2011-12-06 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a small point change today
2011-12-06 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has allowed the XLV breadth MCSUM to basically "flat line" here (a little health care humor)
2011-12-06 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing here suggesting anything to be excited about here for the bulls
2011-12-06 17:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the default of the market is that of a bear
2011-12-06 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really up to the buyers to break free of this same default
2011-12-06 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're not going to do this if we have balance between buyers and sellers
2011-12-06 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO also remains close to neutral
2011-12-06 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how the XLI breadth MCSUM is literally hugging its +250 level
2011-12-06 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if it knows that if it doesn't hold this base camp position, its likely to slip and fall to lower levels
2011-12-06 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO finally moved back above its zero line today
2011-12-06 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place within 70 points of the +250 level on the XLB breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the zero line for the XLK breadth MCO
2011-12-06 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the divergences here are striking between the MCO, MCSUM and the recent run up in prices
2011-12-06 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good technical condition
2011-12-06 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it begs for at least a reset to the pattern
2011-12-06 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the XLP
2011-12-06 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU defensive sector looks to be putting in an exhaustive, if not divergent, topping pattern here
2011-12-06 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the close up of the XLU breadth MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside gap just above the current reading on the chart is the beginning of our gap resistance area
2011-12-06 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls are really going to need to show some POWER soon or we're likely going to have a rally failure here
2011-12-06 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-06 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots to worry about for the bulls
2011-12-06 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2011-12-06 17:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they seem to have conditioned the media into believe that everything is OK
2011-12-06 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in reality...structurally...the underlying strength of what we had over the last two months is gone
2011-12-06 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new fresh money must come in here or we're likely going to see quite a back and fill take place here
2011-12-06 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the McClellan volume charts
2011-12-06 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides snapping back to the zero line
2011-12-06 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is now showing balance between buyers and sellers
2011-12-06 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take "control"
2011-12-06 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls, the have the tougher battle here
2011-12-06 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for they need to keep the current advance going higher and above the +250 level
2011-12-06 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears..they have much easier situation here given the amplitude of the decline prior to this same lethargic snapback to this same zero line
2011-12-06 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like its breadth cousin
2011-12-06 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the CO NYSE breadth MCO (and all of these MCO's for that matter) is able to move back above the early November highs on the MCO
2011-12-06 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will control not only the tempo but the direction of the overall structural pattern
2011-12-06 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE composite volume MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have the set up for a Summation Failure in progress
2011-12-06 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bounce off or near the zero line
2011-12-06 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lack of post expansion off of these same lows to the upside
2011-12-06 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart here
2011-12-06 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the "gap resistance" level here is two posts above where we currently are on the chart
2011-12-06 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could allow, for example, another couple of days of topping to reach this level
2011-12-06 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-12-06 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give us a classic bear divergence pattern with the NYSE breadth MCSUM based on the price action actually moving to higher highs
2011-12-06 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too, although it's not "classic", but we have the structure of a Summation Failure pattern here as well
2011-12-06 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it should be stressed
2011-12-06 17:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that Summation Failures are probably the most dangerous of all patterns that the MCSUM can trace out
2011-12-06 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they usually happen
2011-12-06 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not always
2011-12-06 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but usually happen after we see a bull market termination pattern as we did two weeks ago
2011-12-06 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like dotting the i's and crossing the t's of this same structure
2011-12-06 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the more zero line tests we see here that fail in re-establishing the prior trend
2011-12-06 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more likely we're in some sort of bear market condition
2011-12-06 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can last for about a year
2011-12-06 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-12-06 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were two possible outcomes here
2011-12-06 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one being bearish...moving down and through the MCSUM zero line
2011-12-06 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one being super bearish
2011-12-06 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bearish one was halted by the per-emptive "announcement"
2011-12-06 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without that announcement
2011-12-06 17:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market would had probably worked out its problems in quick order, and we would had been on our way again with a more bullish technical picture
2011-12-06 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whenever the "pointy heads" think they can control the direction and pulse of the market
2011-12-06 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually turns out to be a bad decision
2011-12-06 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it was with currency interventions in the 1980's
2011-12-06 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is what it is
2011-12-06 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe, this time, with the tremendous amount of liquidity out there
2011-12-06 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is some sort of confidence that things can be (at least) put on the back burner for the time being
2011-12-06 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see some nice upside action here
2011-12-06 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of that happening though don't seem to be very high
2011-12-06 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX data
2011-12-06 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too
2011-12-06 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the MCO and the MCSUM are basically flat lining here
2011-12-06 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no real conviction for the bulls
2011-12-06 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's good news for the bears
2011-12-06 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: possible Summation Failure pattern in progress on the SPX volume MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I just noticed
2011-12-06 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had an inside range day today on the SPX
2011-12-06 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with yesterday being a higher close
2011-12-06 17:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow should see a lower close
2011-12-06 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be the start of "something more"
2011-12-06 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: possible Summation Failure on the OEX volume MCSUM as well
2011-12-06 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even though it started below the zero line
2011-12-06 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can add the Dow volume MCSUM to that growing list of problems
2011-12-06 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the MID volume MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a feeble attempt in trying to snapback to the zero line on the SML volume MCSUM
2011-12-06 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though as a bright spot
2011-12-06 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO did move above its November highs yesterday
2011-12-06 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if I trust it...could be part of a seasonality situation
2011-12-06 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if others join the SML
2011-12-06 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could show that the bulls have some strength yet to use
2011-12-06 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a possible Summation Failure on the TM volume MCSUM as well
2011-12-06 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-12-06 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the volume oscillators are showing
2011-12-06 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now all "overbought"
2011-12-06 17:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the VTO"s neutral overall...where one side can now take control
2011-12-06 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no help here with the CVI's
2011-12-06 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except to say that they look toppy
2011-12-06 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here's the key stuff coming up
2011-12-06 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.04
2011-12-06 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .80
2011-12-06 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-12-06 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell signal
2011-12-06 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2011-12-06 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .77
2011-12-06 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-12-06 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell signal
2011-12-06 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.22
2011-12-06 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .81
2011-12-06 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to "overbought"
2011-12-06 17:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may be like horseshoes...close could be enough given the NYSE and NASDAQ numbers
2011-12-06 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-06 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of good news for the bulls tonight
2011-12-06 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can stretch this if they want to
2011-12-06 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the more and more they struggle
2011-12-06 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the worse it's likely to be once they run out of support
2011-12-06 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full on defensive position continues to be necessary
2011-12-06 17:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see some better neutral readings
2011-12-06 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2011-12-06 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a downside break to where we can start to look for bottoming action
2011-12-06 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-12-06 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that some sort of test of the Black Friday price lows is probable before we'll see anything resembling a rising price pattern structure
2011-12-06 17:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-06 17:42:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: even if the bulls can belly up here.how long can it last? There is absolutely no texture
2011-12-06 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold had a good technical day
2011-12-06 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until it starts to firm up here
2011-12-06 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will have some problems
2011-12-06 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes Lew
2011-12-06 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no structure
2011-12-06 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and worse yet
2011-12-06 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical bounce here has been dismal
2011-12-06 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in at around 120 today (I think)
2011-12-06 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I can confirm that
2011-12-06 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they changed their website...can't find it
2011-12-06 17:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2011-12-06 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but yesterday was something like 70
2011-12-06 17:45:33 [Message] EricD -> Chat: ISEE 160
2011-12-06 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every time we get a number lower than 80, the bears have problems the next day
2011-12-06 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thank you Eric
2011-12-06 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 160...that sounds right
2011-12-06 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my days tend to blur
2011-12-06 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how futures are doing
2011-12-06 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up
2011-12-06 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a fake out on WWW?
2011-12-06 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense here is that there is a whole lot of bets on the downside here
2011-12-06 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market won't allow these good folks to win, would it?
2011-12-06 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you imagine how many got smashed on December options with the recent run up?
2011-12-06 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we go back to test the Black Friday lows now
2011-12-06 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the time decay for out of the money puts will have evaporated by now
2011-12-06 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market couldn't go down fast enough
2011-12-06 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2011-12-06 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be careful out there
2011-12-06 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2011-12-06 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play each trade here as hit and run
2011-12-06 17:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might get a trend here
2011-12-06 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have some of the MCSUM's above their zero line here
2011-12-06 17:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCO's go back below zero
2011-12-06 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will still be rather choppy
2011-12-06 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-06 17:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-06 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-12-06 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are going on Thursday
2011-12-06 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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