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Posts: 4,882
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-06 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-06 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-06 16:00:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very Well, thanks
2010-12-06 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and welcome to manuj...good to have you aboard!
2010-12-06 16:00:34 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good, thanks
2010-12-06 16:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up a little late tonight Sam...I hope everything is well
2010-12-06 16:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-06 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see breadth plurality was flat today...maybe we have some small point changes tonight?
2010-12-06 16:02:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-12-06 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...if there's nothing on your minds...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-12-06 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2010-12-06 16:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but closer to a 5 point change which is just short of the guidelines of a "small point change"
2010-12-06 16:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to have a cross over buy signal with the CO MCO components
2010-12-06 16:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM looks to be doing a fishhook pattern at this stage
2010-12-06 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the correct interpretation we should move towards the MCO zero line as soon as tomorrow
2010-12-06 16:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the early November MCO highs still intact
2010-12-06 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still under the influence of a trading range
2010-12-06 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change tonight on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-06 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2010-12-06 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM now has the structure of a ledge pattern in place
2010-12-06 16:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we all know, ledges are formed to fall off of
2010-12-06 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: falling off, of course, means that the MCO is about to negative
2010-12-06 16:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so things continue to follow our blueprint with the NYSE breadth MCSUM make its final move lower to or towards its zero line
2010-12-06 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as price is concerned the expectation here is for a full retracement back to the lower boundary of the current horizontal trading range...NYA 7400
2010-12-06 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be quick...but it still makes better sense to see this low come in sometime next week on or close to December expirations
2010-12-06 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the alternative here is if we're able to break above the early November highs in the MCO
2010-12-06 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll be on our way on the next leg up
2010-12-06 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a minimum target on the NYA of around the 8500 level
2010-12-06 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless of whether we do it now or later, we'll more than likely reach this level in the next month or so
2010-12-06 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh...did you hear the news on the tax rates?
2010-12-06 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready for a shocker?
2010-12-06 16:12:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2010-12-06 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have come to an agreement for an across the board extension for 2 years
2010-12-06 16:12:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: imagine that, lol
2010-12-06 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also includes another 13 months of unemployment compensation
2010-12-06 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not all that shocking....but
2010-12-06 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shocker here is that the President delivered even more...a cut in the SSI for two years of 2%!
2010-12-06 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know how they'll manage that
2010-12-06 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems more like "look, see what I proposed?"
2010-12-06 16:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how it all shakes out in committee over the next week or so
2010-12-06 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the fun stuff
2010-12-06 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also had a minimal change today
2010-12-06 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not technically a small point change, but close enough
2010-12-06 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM close up chart
2010-12-06 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see a clear cut fishhook pattern in process
2010-12-06 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if this is the preferred structure, we should start to move down within the next two trading sessions
2010-12-06 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: major resistance for now is at the +200 MCSUM level
2010-12-06 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a potential for bear divergence now in place between the MCO and the NASDAQ composite
2010-12-06 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliotticians...3 waves up so far
2010-12-06 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the way that prices are leading...which stink up the rally...this is the personality of a classic B wave
2010-12-06 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be important if and we do turn lower here is the amplitude of the decline
2010-12-06 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where we'll be able to finalize whether we have a irregular flat or triangle pattern tracing out
2010-12-06 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a snapback to just below the zero line today on the NDX breadth MCO
2010-12-06 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the NDX breadth MCSUM is struggling here
2010-12-06 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a snapback to or towards the zero line on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-12-06 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again you can see our ledge formation on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-12-06 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX MCO components still on a crossover buy signal
2010-12-06 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about this for a moment
2010-12-06 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still showing good support by the bulls
2010-12-06 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might not see the real teeth of any back and fill pattern until Wednesday at the earliest
2010-12-06 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that if one were to short here "on the come"
2010-12-06 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still prudent to play this as a hit and run
2010-12-06 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not to hold positions overnight
2010-12-06 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last Thursday
2010-12-06 16:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the momentum of the energy produced last week, it was likely that it was going to take more than a couple of days to exhaust itself
2010-12-06 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...that's been the correct interpretation
2010-12-06 16:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another day of churning to higher might be needed before there's enough internal decay so that the price patterns can, in fact, do what needs to be done for a more proper bottom to form
2010-12-06 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2010-12-06 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so continuing with the last thought for a moment
2010-12-06 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see something like an obligatory bounce off the zero line where we see such action taking place before we actually are able to once again move back below this same line of neutrality between buyers and sellers
2010-12-06 16:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...near term...the bulls remain in control
2010-12-06 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term, however, that's debatable
2010-12-06 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note this evening that with the shallow bounce we see in the OEX breadth MCSUM
2010-12-06 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in for a small Summation Failure to take place
2010-12-06 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: support here remains at the 530 level
2010-12-06 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: important MCSUM support for the OEX comes with the early September lows
2010-12-06 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was the expectation
2010-12-06 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO was not able to stay above its zero line for more than a day
2010-12-06 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back below this same line
2010-12-06 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's then call that a simple snapback to the zero line from a deeply "oversold" reading
2010-12-06 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this lack of upward follow through has only been able to move the Dow breadth MCSUM sideways
2010-12-06 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough energy to even form a ledge
2010-12-06 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s another indication that we're more than likely going to move back lower within this larger short term trading range
2010-12-06 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO is now showing clean bearish divergence with its price pattern
2010-12-06 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since its been stronger than the large caps
2010-12-06 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation on any overall market pullback remains within the confines of a snapback to the previous breakout line
2010-12-06 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can also make out the small fishhook pattern on the MID breadth MCSUM
2010-12-06 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike everything we covered so far
2010-12-06 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is showing, by far, the best amount of strength here
2010-12-06 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, this promises good things for the bulls in the not too distant future
2010-12-06 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do, however, also have a problem of breadth leadership here
2010-12-06 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a snapback to or towards the April highs would be indicated
2010-12-06 16:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it, a snapback to the SML breadth MCO
2010-12-06 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2010-12-06 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here it would appear that we have neither ledge nor fishhook here
2010-12-06 16:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any pullback with this area of the market should be bought
2010-12-06 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's showing the kind of leadership qualities that are the backbone of advancing price structures
2010-12-06 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for should find resistance at the MCSUM +500 level
2010-12-06 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically...this would part of our anticipated snapback that we were looking for 2 weeks ago
2010-12-06 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO this evening
2010-12-06 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM showing a classic ledge to this point in time
2010-12-06 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-12-06 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2010-12-06 16:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is that the market should begin to pullback...with the only question being whether this will be that of a shallow retracement or a full one all the way back to the November lows
2010-12-06 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market kind of out of sync right now
2010-12-06 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can have both occur from chart to chart
2010-12-06 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line is that we're not likely finished with our pause just yet...maybe another week or two and that should be it
2010-12-06 16:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the sectors
2010-12-06 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY is still showing nice strength here
2010-12-06 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money evidently doesn't agree with the majority that the economy still doesn't look likes its turning around
2010-12-06 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLY breadth MCSUM and you can see by the lack of distance between the individual MCSUM postings that the bears have not much in the way of conviction here
2010-12-06 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although, near term, the bulls aren't making a statement either
2010-12-06 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how ledges usually form...with a lot of indecision
2010-12-06 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM has already moved to lower lows
2010-12-06 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should not forget that it was the XLP that topped out about a week before the broader market did in November
2010-12-06 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this leadership might be continuing here
2010-12-06 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE remains the strongest here
2010-12-06 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCSUM showing a reading of +1421
2010-12-06 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if this starts to move lower
2010-12-06 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (which it should very soon)
2010-12-06 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this again doesn't mean that prices will follow in lock step
2010-12-06 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's a matter of momentum that needs to be worked off first
2010-12-06 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that won't probably come now until January at the earliest
2010-12-06 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM has pretty much fulfilled its snapback up to its zero line now
2010-12-06 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2010-12-06 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have an accentuated ledge in place now as well
2010-12-06 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...maybe the financials will lead us into the bottom
2010-12-06 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...makes perfect sense
2010-12-06 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since everything from the 2008 highs has been predicated on this sector's performance
2010-12-06 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the "star" likely to continue to shine with BAC
2010-12-06 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV data continues to show additional weakness here
2010-12-06 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as with the consumer staples, it would appear that the defensive issues may be leading the market lower here near term
2010-12-06 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM kind of looks like the XLY data with both the structures of the MCO and MCSUM
2010-12-06 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the star sector here comes with the XLB data
2010-12-06 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has now moved above its November MCO highs confirming the new highs in the price pattern
2010-12-06 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've already snapped back to the MCO +50 level today
2010-12-06 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the precious metals stocks, materials seems to be showing the best leadership to the upside right now which could be a tip off to housing
2010-12-06 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: classic ledge formation on the XLK breadth MCSUM while trying to hold above the +750 level
2010-12-06 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember that with the XLK MCSUM at the +750 level that we shouldn't see too much in the way of price decay with this sector on any further shake out that might take place near term
2010-12-06 16:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything, based on what we've see so far, it would appear that the so called "defensive" sectors are the prime candidates for that
2010-12-06 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also include the XLU
2010-12-06 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with this sector, the dividend tends to soften any further price erosion for the short term
2010-12-06 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-12-06 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the defensive issues say lower
2010-12-06 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have many potential ledges and fishhooks in place here that suggest that we have one more move to the downside coming
2010-12-06 16:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where watching breadth plurality will be your best guide (as it always is)
2010-12-06 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2010-12-06 16:56:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: What do you make of JPM's silver short position?
2010-12-06 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think they're losing their shirt
2010-12-06 16:56:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: couldn't it turn catastrophic?
2010-12-06 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid...things like this don't figure in this kind of work
2010-12-06 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see how unless its for JPM
2010-12-06 16:57:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: big banks seem to matter
2010-12-06 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do they?
2010-12-06 16:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do we matter to them?
2010-12-06 16:57:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when we have to bail them out-I'd say yes
2010-12-06 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're busy baling out Europe right now...leave a message at the tone
2010-12-06 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really, in all seriousness, I'm sure that they hold silver positions in which they're playing arbitrage here
2010-12-06 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just another distraction
2010-12-06 16:59:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: against?
2010-12-06 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how long do you think they've been holding this short position?
2010-12-06 16:59:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: months, but silver isn't stopping
2010-12-06 16:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:, it isn't
2010-12-06 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems they need better traders there
2010-12-06 17:00:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and the amount they are short could not even be purchased
2010-12-06 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not comparing this to the Hunt Brothers, are you?
2010-12-06 17:00:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in reverse
2010-12-06 17:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't agree
2010-12-06 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to be honest here I can't trade on that
2010-12-06 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always a winner and loser
2010-12-06 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's just the way things are
2010-12-06 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better question is...why haven't they covered?
2010-12-06 17:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't they see a trend here?
2010-12-06 17:02:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hard to see the metals in danger here
2010-12-06 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not
2010-12-06 17:02:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: then, I'd cover
2010-12-06 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the FED's foot is on the accelerator, the metals should continue to go higher
2010-12-06 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how about this
2010-12-06 17:02:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed
2010-12-06 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their being as short as they are IS moving prices higher
2010-12-06 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are causing the problem
2010-12-06 17:03:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes!
2010-12-06 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no remorse for these fools
2010-12-06 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except I do get very annoyed at how much money they make for these kinds of trading mistakes
2010-12-06 17:04:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet, LOL
2010-12-06 17:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I should be worth billions!
2010-12-06 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't have an Ivy League degree
2010-12-06 17:04:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just mentioned because it seems a self feeding flame
2010-12-06 17:05:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, VERY easy to target them here
2010-12-06 17:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would ANYONE be short against this? -
2010-12-06 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is just another example of grasping at straws here
2010-12-06 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know where this information began
2010-12-06 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these irresponsible bloggers should be taken out behind the shed and given where to
2010-12-06 17:06:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so, the position is not there?
2010-12-06 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm tired of the garbage
2010-12-06 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter if it is or not
2010-12-06 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a distraction
2010-12-06 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to keep others from making money
2010-12-06 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for every buyer there's a seller
2010-12-06 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s the banks
2010-12-06 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no love lost with these people
2010-12-06 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just trade what I see
2010-12-06 17:07:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto!
2010-12-06 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been long with SLW since 18
2010-12-06 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have other PM stocks
2010-12-06 17:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm perfectly happy with my positions
2010-12-06 17:08:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can't argue with that, for sure
2010-12-06 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow the trend...everything else will work itself out
2010-12-06 17:08:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a short just seems extremely dangerous here
2010-12-06 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's their problem
2010-12-06 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no love for Mr. Diamond
2010-12-06 17:09:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, but are their problems still ours?
2010-12-06 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not to my knowledge
2010-12-06 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger problems
2010-12-06 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to worry about something
2010-12-06 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is with the regional banks
2010-12-06 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Washington has JPM's back
2010-12-06 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GS has JPM's back
2010-12-06 17:10:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Washington-that us, right? LOL
2010-12-06 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not if you stop paying taxes
2010-12-06 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to work
2010-12-06 17:11:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-12-06 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is so messed up
2010-12-06 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all screwed
2010-12-06 17:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2010-12-06 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's exploit it!
2010-12-06 17:12:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: GS had Lehman's back, no? LOL
2010-12-06 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...Bear Stearns did
2010-12-06 17:12:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: right
2010-12-06 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took 6 months for the stuff to hit the fan
2010-12-06 17:12:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: exploit sounds just fine
2010-12-06 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lehman was sacrificed for political "change"
2010-12-06 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another board
2010-12-06 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now starting to pull back to their zero lines
2010-12-06 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today being the 2 day after hitting "overbought" levels
2010-12-06 17:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now minimally "overbought"
2010-12-06 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are on the bullish side of neutral
2010-12-06 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2010-12-06 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89 - neutral
2010-12-06 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .96
2010-12-06 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2010-12-06 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .91
2010-12-06 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2010-12-06 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NASDAQ and Total Market Open 10's are indicating that a digestion period might be in the cards near term
2010-12-06 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...taken together...we seem to be close to some sort of retracement
2010-12-06 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a reset for some
2010-12-06 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback for others
2010-12-06 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a back and fill for the rest
2010-12-06 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this retracement could start as soon as Tuesday
2010-12-06 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the position of the breadth MCO's
2010-12-06 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday seems to be the better opportunity for this to happen
2010-12-06 17:18:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: does the look of the DOW make it more vulnerable?
2010-12-06 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch your breadth plurality...and follow its lead
2010-12-06 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is the index in which the masses react to the most
2010-12-06 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow having only shown a technical snapback to its zero line
2010-12-06 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little in the way of structure below it
2010-12-06 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that "hardest hit" will probably be with this group of 30 stocks
2010-12-06 17:19:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, not that I'm hunting or anything, just curious (:
2010-12-06 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the ETS number of last week, pullbacks should be looked upon as buying opps
2010-12-06 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see what's going on
2010-12-06 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: far be it for me to push you in the right direction
2010-12-06 17:21:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, just wondering which trees they might shake
2010-12-06 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be our clue here as to how close we are in finishing things off will lie with the sentiment
2010-12-06 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment on any decline from here should be screaming "crashes"
2010-12-06 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we hear and read...the better the bottom
2010-12-06 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so observe with a clear eye
2010-12-06 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-06 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to answer your question about tree shaking
2010-12-06 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shaking will FEEL to be widespread
2010-12-06 17:23:12 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Question - How did you arrive at next week / the Dec OPEX as the possible timing for the low? I am not sure what methodology / thoughts you are using to work out the amount of time need to achieve the low ....
2010-12-06 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the bears are staying away from discussing the small and mid caps here
2010-12-06 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...the guess of next week just happens to coincide with December expirations
2010-12-06 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could had been another time period
2010-12-06 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I kind of know how long these kind of corrections usually take
2010-12-06 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or, at least, I have a feel for them after doing this for as long as I have
2010-12-06 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the MCSUM
2010-12-06 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you count the days it took to get from one 250 level to the other
2010-12-06 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can approximate the time it will take to reach the next target
2010-12-06 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the job then becomes in monitoring this information
2010-12-06 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it can pull up short...or extend as well
2010-12-06 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort like a price objective
2010-12-06 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a target based on historical norms
2010-12-06 17:26:21 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Okay, will look into that for the ftse. Thanks
2010-12-06 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it can pull up short...or move above it slightly
2010-12-06 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2010-12-06 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I updated my FTSE MCSUM
2010-12-06 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and saw that it got down to around the -400 level last you have the same data?
2010-12-06 17:27:33 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: No. Mine is calculated daily for all the indices i watch
2010-12-06 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...that's different
2010-12-06 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you make up your own index?
2010-12-06 17:27:59 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: also, the calculation is based upon the current configuration of the indices
2010-12-06 17:28:44 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: so I look for patterns in the mco and 5% and 10 % elements also
2010-12-06 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you're not using the breadth data from the have put your own index together??
2010-12-06 17:30:30 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: No, the software is kept up to date by the supplier
2010-12-06 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhhh...
2010-12-06 17:30:45 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: but I do have to build it for the US indices
2010-12-06 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting
2010-12-06 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how long have you been keeping this data going?
2010-12-06 17:31:28 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: so for the spx, I check and update the component companies as needed
2010-12-06 17:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...I see what you're doing
2010-12-06 17:31:47 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: the data goes back to 2000
2010-12-06 17:32:08 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: but I can load data in from further back if required
2010-12-06 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very nice...have the chats helped you in understanding the McClellan's?
2010-12-06 17:32:57 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: enormously
2010-12-06 17:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great to hear
2010-12-06 17:33:16 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I am starting to use this in my daily thinking
2010-12-06 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excellent
2010-12-06 17:33:32 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: but still need to think in a bigger time frame
2010-12-06 17:33:49 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Jumping the gun at times
2010-12-06 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what's most important first and foremost is the direction of money flow
2010-12-06 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that can be done daily
2010-12-06 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the amplitude of the MCSUM the more bullish or bearish you get
2010-12-06 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that the MCSUM is measuring the distance between two EMA's
2010-12-06 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the numbers get higher on the MCSUM
2010-12-06 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the distance between the EMA's
2010-12-06 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually leads to an equal and opposite force to close this same gap
2010-12-06 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why crash like events usually take place when we're in or near the zero line and NOT when the MCSUM is below -500 as many people believe
2010-12-06 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm very happy to hear of your success
2010-12-06 17:36:38 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Given the FTSE 100 Mcsum is at around -200, I should be expecting a deeper price cut than the US indices...correct?
2010-12-06 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well....the MCSUM has been rising over the last couple of days?
2010-12-06 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you see a ledge?
2010-12-06 17:37:31 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: not much - ledge formation taking place...
2010-12-06 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2010-12-06 17:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is that the FTSE will tend to be weaker overall against the US markets
2010-12-06 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOWEVER
2010-12-06 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more important right now to start your pulling together a shopping list for when the MCSUM actually bottoms and turns around
2010-12-06 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that ledges form just prior to the final move down
2010-12-06 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be the capitation phase of the correction
2010-12-06 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where you will find issues at wholesale pricing
2010-12-06 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once you see texture develop in the MCO
2010-12-06 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you see the rate of decline slow in the MCSUM
2010-12-06 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where you begin to nibble
2010-12-06 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the game of chess, it's very important to think 3 steps ahead
2010-12-06 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can play it short
2010-12-06 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the real money will be made to the upside as long as the A/D line is trending in this same direction
2010-12-06 17:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just something to think about...
2010-12-06 17:41:32 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Have you ever played with the mco and see what happens if you change the 5% and 10% to 10% and 20%?
2010-12-06 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't change a thing
2010-12-06 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can play with it
2010-12-06 17:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Trends given are important
2010-12-06 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-06 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 20% trend would be like a...what...13 day EMA?
2010-12-06 17:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe lower
2010-12-06 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2010-12-06 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want a good reliable time frame that will absorb quirks
2010-12-06 17:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster you go...the more you'll get whipsawed
2010-12-06 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I'm not a big fan of those who use anything lower than a 13 day EMA for this kind of stuff
2010-12-06 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just too quick
2010-12-06 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about it
2010-12-06 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think a 20% Trend is close to a 10 day EMA
2010-12-06 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow and sure wins the race
2010-12-06 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or as I like to is a marathon...not a sprint
2010-12-06 17:45:37 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Agreed, I use these tools for setting my short / long trend bias.
2010-12-06 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing we all have to do is decided what time scale we feel comfortable with
2010-12-06 17:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you change the will the interpretation as well
2010-12-06 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it
2010-12-06 17:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see if it shows a good consistency
2010-12-06 17:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but trade what you know
2010-12-06 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-06 17:47:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for the extra chat tonite-great work
2010-12-06 17:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problemo
2010-12-06 17:47:58 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Thanks from this side of the pond also.
2010-12-06 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my pleasure...we're all here to learn
2010-12-06 17:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm going to take off
2010-12-06 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regular schedule tomorrow and then on Thursday
2010-12-06 17:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so have a good one tonight
2010-12-06 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again tomorrow
2010-12-06 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-12-06 17:48:53 [Message] gman -> Chat: good night
2010-12-06 17:49:07 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Have a good evening.

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