All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-12-05 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-12-05 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-12-05 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-12-05 16:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2013-12-05 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued lower today
2013-12-05 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it now rests on the rising bottoms line connecting the early October and November lows
2013-12-05 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile this constant selling pressure over the last couple of days is now driving the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM to the downside
2013-12-05 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it now rests at the +392 level
2013-12-05 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-12-05 16:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we had continued follow through to the downside in both components
2013-12-05 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the 5% Trend is challenging its zero line
2013-12-05 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would again suggest that some sort of bounce is likely near term
2013-12-05 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this bounce would then allow the 10% Trend to snapback to or towards the same zero line that was violated on Tuesday
2013-12-05 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of violations
2013-12-05 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday's violation suggested that the NYA would likely challenge the 10,000 level sooner than later
2013-12-05 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so intraday on Wednesday
2013-12-05 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's close at 10,016
2013-12-05 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that downside target has been met as well and a bounce is now likely
2013-12-05 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it has now lost its divergence between it and the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now leading to the downside

2013-12-05 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would now suggest that traders are now more unanimous in their convictions that longer term rates on the 10 year note are likely to move higher from here
2013-12-05 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 2.95% level being key as to whether a more longer lasting bottom for rates is behind us
2013-12-05 16:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check to see where we settled today
2013-12-05 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.86%
2013-12-05 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still pretty much on target for a challenge of the upper end of the range that we've been working with in the Weekly Breadth Data Bond chart
2013-12-05 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will up to what we see this weekend in the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line that will tell us whether 2.95% will hold or not
2013-12-05 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Composite price index continues to hold up nicely
2013-12-05 16:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to find support at the 4025 level
2013-12-05 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-12-05 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continues to move lower
2013-12-05 16:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now broken below the short term rising bottoms line that was holding pattern support on Tuesday
2013-12-05 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2013-12-05 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both remain above their zero lines
2013-12-05 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the 10% Trend is now challenging this same demarcation line between buyers and sellers
2013-12-05 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again we should expect some sort of bounce here...at least by Monday
2013-12-05 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is also breaking pattern support now to the downside
2013-12-05 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now broken support in the NDX breadth MCSUM out of its large symmetrical triangle
2013-12-05 16:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which provides synchronicity in the direction in which both the primary (NYSE) and the secondaries (NASDAQ) are moving (in this case to the downside)
2013-12-05 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a new downside MCO generated target given to around the 3350 level now on the table
2013-12-05 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: selling also continued to pick up as seen in the SPX breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has now moved to "oversold" territory
2013-12-05 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and breaking trendline support using the August and October lows as our basis
2013-12-05 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would now suggest that a deeper and longer correction is now in progress
2013-12-05 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the initial downside price target here at around the 1750 level
2013-12-05 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the latest data showing stronger economic growth over the last month or so
2013-12-05 16:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will give traders an opportunity to take profits on the idea that this was actually taking place 2 months ago
2013-12-05 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...
2013-12-05 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the rally as we did
2013-12-05 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: proving once again
2013-12-05 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should never question why money either moves in or out of the market
2013-12-05 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only need to follow its lead and hopefully profit from it
2013-12-05 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see an echo effect between the SPX McClellan's and the OEX McClellan data
2013-12-05 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both show that their 5% Trends are suggesting a near term bounce as they have now moved back to their respective zero lines
2013-12-05 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where we should continue to see soft market conditions right into quarterly OPEX
2013-12-05 16:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another two weeks of chop
2013-12-05 16:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO is also in "oversold" territory
2013-12-05 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow breadth MCSUM still well above the +750 level
2013-12-05 16:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see higher price highs in the Dow index sometime before the end of the month no matter if the MCSUM continues to unwind its latest excesses when it moved to around the +1000 level
2013-12-05 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually when we see long periods in which the MCO stays on either side of its zero line
2013-12-05 16:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation once the this complex pattern finally exhausts itself
2013-12-05 16:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will see the MCO stay on the opposite side of zero for a little over half the time of the previous period
2013-12-05 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-12-05 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO is above the zero line for 2 months
2013-12-05 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be below the zero line for a month
2013-12-05 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is our expectation for now
2013-12-05 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it had a bounce higher today
2013-12-05 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it remains above its rising bottoms line that's been controlling the pattern since October
2013-12-05 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we connect that August and November lows
2013-12-05 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's bounce occurred right on this rising trendline
2013-12-05 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good show of character there
2013-12-05 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a week where we haven't found any by the bulls
2013-12-05 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-12-05 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's bounce in the MCO has allowed the 10% Trend to snapback up to its zero line
2013-12-05 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with that simple technical expectation out of the way
2013-12-05 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in store for a near term technical breakdown
2013-12-05 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, could be generated by a surprising strong jobs report on Friday
2013-12-05 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then suggest that next weeks statement by the FED could include plans to "taper"
2013-12-05 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though I would be surprised if we didn't see this happen
2013-12-05 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the Fed usually keeps a low profile when we see transitions in the Chairman
2013-12-05 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to avoid any "unexpected consequences" with this "change in power"
2013-12-05 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a small bounce higher today in the SML breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also got an inside range day today in the price bar
2013-12-05 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since Wednesday was a down day
2013-12-05 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should close higher on Friday
2013-12-05 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that, of course, can be 1 point higher or 10 points higher
2013-12-05 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that kind of information would come from other analytical tools that forecast such expectations
2013-12-05 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally we see that the TM breadth MCO continued to sag lower over the last couple of days
2013-12-05 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now testing the lows of two weeks ago
2013-12-05 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that today's MCO reading has created an expansion gap to the downside
2013-12-05 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now likely now that we will see a simultaneous break of both MCO and MCSUM support as soon as Friday
2013-12-05 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when situations like this happen
2013-12-05 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually happens with a lot of fanfare
2013-12-05 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-12-05 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation for a technical bounce did not occur on Wednesday or today
2013-12-05 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the one thing about technical analysis that always needs to be respected
2013-12-05 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is not if things go as one would have them planned
2013-12-05 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when outcomes don't go as expected can tell us much more about what to expect over the next 4-6 weeks
2013-12-05 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...we are back to a full defensive position
2013-12-05 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where hard stops are now advised on any open long positions
2013-12-05 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we wait to see what kind of near term bounce we get in our effort to know whether or not if this time this correctional phase is the most important one we've see in 2 years or not
2013-12-05 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick peak at the BETS
2013-12-05 16:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a break in the NYAD line to the downside as it broke below the 39 day EMA today
2013-12-05 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +20
2013-12-05 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it stays there on Friday
2013-12-05 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will have our first "go to cash" signal in a couple of months
2013-12-05 16:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch out for that
2013-12-05 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-12-05 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO has also broken technical support this past week
2013-12-05 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2013-12-05 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing good post expansion to the downside in the XLY breadth MCSUM
2013-12-05 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: luckily for the price chart
2013-12-05 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM remains well above the +500 level
2013-12-05 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all we're likely to see here is a sideways price consolidation for this correction
2013-12-05 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a nice rounding top pattern in the XLP price chart
2013-12-05 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLP breadth MCO digging to the downside
2013-12-05 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2013-12-05 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM still quite high here
2013-12-05 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation here is that the 42 level will provide near term support
2013-12-05 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't be surprising to see an all out test of the 41.50 level where we would see a simple snapback in prices to what was previous overheard resistance
2013-12-05 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE remains quite choppy here
2013-12-05 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the XLE breadth MCO, and it's components, remain on a sell signal
2013-12-05 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLE breadth MCSUM is now approaching its zero line
2013-12-05 16:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below that level would then open the door for a pullback to the 82.50 level
2013-12-05 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the financials
2013-12-05 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLF breadth MCO did indeed break below pattern support today
2013-12-05 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any take out of the lows of 11/20 would be a sell signal for this group
2013-12-05 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more so if the November bottom in the XLF breadth MCSUM is taken out
2013-12-05 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with solid price pattern support at the 20 level for those so inclined to ride any further correction out in a longer term trade
2013-12-05 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard selling continues in the Health Care Sector
2013-12-05 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV breadth MCO now highly "oversold" with a reading of -76
2013-12-05 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do, however, have an inside range day today
2013-12-05 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should close higher on Friday
2013-12-05 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the XLI breadth MCO
2013-12-05 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's now deeply "oversold" with a reading of -88
2013-12-05 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the MCO's interpretation of this same selling by looking at the large post expansion gaps to the downside in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2013-12-05 17:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is going to be a collar on the Dow Industrials and Transports for a little while
2013-12-05 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO continues to maintain its bearish posture of remaining deeply "oversold"
2013-12-05 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it is now attempting to generate some sort of divergent structure
2013-12-05 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, given the amplitude of the XLB MCO's decline, the creation of this divergence may not be as easy to do right now
2013-12-05 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the rest of the market now showing enough evidence to be defensive overall
2013-12-05 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also seeing a pattern breakdown in the XLK breadth MCO
2013-12-05 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though at this point
2013-12-05 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising bottoms line seen in the XLK breadth MCSUM, that goes back to June, remains intact
2013-12-05 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll continue to be in "show me" mode before we take a broader negative view towards this sector
2013-12-05 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what we were looking for in the XLU breadth MCO
2013-12-05 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we moved sharply higher on Wednesday
2013-12-05 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the point in which we did take out the reaction highs seen in the November period
2013-12-05 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will be enough now to where we're likely to see a successful test of the 36 level...at least initially
2013-12-05 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to see the creation of divergence as we move closer to the 37 level
2013-12-05 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could happen as soon as early next week
2013-12-05 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-05 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: general market conditions have now changed enough to where we are now taking a defensive attitude towards our trading
2013-12-05 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still, however, to expect a change in trend develop to the downside
2013-12-05 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any rally from here will be that of a reflex
2013-12-05 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where laggards will need to be dumped
2013-12-05 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and positions with profits will be protected with comfortable stops
2013-12-05 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume McClellan's
2013-12-05 17:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO is lagging now to the downside
2013-12-05 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that any sellers that are out there are nervous ones to begin with
2013-12-05 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as bigger money is not really closing positions at this stage
2013-12-05 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be perceived as being a bullish event
2013-12-05 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2013-12-05 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite volume MCO is in sync with its breadth cousin to the downside
2013-12-05 17:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we always talk about
2013-12-05 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite data is the parent here
2013-12-05 17:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll now go with the idea that going to see this current corrective phase will now extend for another couple of weeks
2013-12-05 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, or course, will disappoint those who were looking for a Santa rally into the end of the year
2013-12-05 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...
2013-12-05 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might still get
2013-12-05 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it won't likely to happen now until after OPEX on the 20th
2013-12-05 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who may be wondering
2013-12-05 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on when will the MCSUM's give us a time target for the completion of this correction?
2013-12-05 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would occur on a break of the October lows
2013-12-05 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, if that did happen, that would extend this current pullback to the beginning of February
2013-12-05 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2013-12-05 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the actual timing of this is all based on when this same MCSUM support is actually broken
2013-12-05 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to be patient in that regard and go with the next two weeks
2013-12-05 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO broke below its rising bottoms line on Wednesday
2013-12-05 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is still having its problems moving above the pivotal +500 level
2013-12-05 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless this changes quickly
2013-12-05 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will then be in another position to really take control of things for the next month
2013-12-05 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch that one
2013-12-05 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM continues to look concerning
2013-12-05 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it maintains its sideways pattern
2013-12-05 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at just below the +500 level
2013-12-05 17:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing good there if and when we see our first downside gap posting
2013-12-05 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows in both the SPX and OEX volume MCO's
2013-12-05 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the Dow volume MCO
2013-12-05 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with so many "oversold" readings now
2013-12-05 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really is going to take a couple of weeks just to rebuild a foundation now so that the current rising price structures and trend again
2013-12-05 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're even seeing heavier selling now on a short term trending basis with the MID and SML volume MCO's
2013-12-05 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the MID and SML volume MCSUM's begging for some sort of downside purge to release the "tension" of the congested advance of the last couple of months
2013-12-05 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and too much resistance for the TM volume MCSUM at the +500 level
2013-12-05 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how we look as we challenge horizontal support at the +300 level
2013-12-05 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-05 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is enough evidence now to suggest that we're beginning a more pronounced correction
2013-12-05 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will take the form of a high level consolidation
2013-12-05 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of a range or a triangle
2013-12-05 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the near term is concerned
2013-12-05 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday will either be a wash out point
2013-12-05 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a point from where we'll see reflex rally to relieve our "oversold" condition
2013-12-05 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before then moving to lower price lows next week
2013-12-05 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for now is for this to last into the 20th...with any further technical damage in the MCO's pushing this time target out to what should be the beginning of next month
2013-12-05 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-12-05 17:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a consolidation that will include a high degree of chop for 2 weeks
2013-12-05 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then an attempt to move higher again
2013-12-05 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with several indices probably moving to new all time highs before falling back again
2013-12-05 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then some additional backing and filling should finish the job
2013-12-05 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are far from climactic
2013-12-05 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now close to being "oversold"
2013-12-05 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX VTO broke down today
2013-12-05 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the 2 month uptrend is now in jeopardy
2013-12-05 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2013-12-05 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2013-12-05 17:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2013-12-05 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.24
2013-12-05 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2013-12-05 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.04
2013-12-05 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2013-12-05 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing there suggesting a tradable bottom...
2013-12-05 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing suggesting a top either
2013-12-05 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's now consolidation time
2013-12-05 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the fundamental numbers begin to compliment what the technicals have been suggesting over the last several months in that the economy is, in fact, expanding
2013-12-05 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that the good news is finally coming out
2013-12-05 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the time to where we're likely to see a correction
2013-12-05 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to how long it's likely to take to wash the system of the weak hands
2013-12-05 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less those staunch bears who had thrown in the towel over the last month and decided to finally go with the trend
2013-12-05 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still don't quite have a true handle on that
2013-12-05 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-12-05 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's enough technical damage now to forecast another 2 weeks
2013-12-05 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get any further weakness
2013-12-05 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will extend things into January
2013-12-05 17:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we break the October lows in the MCSUM's
2013-12-05 17:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll move into February
2013-12-05 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see how it goes
2013-12-05 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-05 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-12-05 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are long and "nervous"
2013-12-05 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no has ever been disappointed in taking a profit
2013-12-05 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're also "oversold" enough to where a bounce is likely
2013-12-05 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so place a stop...set it, and then have a great Friday!
2013-12-05 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-12-05 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-12-05 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2013-12-05 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things sort out on Tuesday
2013-12-05 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch