Chat - 12/4/12 - Technical Watch Forum

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 12/4/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,823

Posted 1354716751	Reply with quote #1

2012-12-04 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2012-12-04 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2012-12-04 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-12-04 16:04:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: My FSLR was up 7.68 percent today, LOL 2012-12-04 16:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Ho Hum... 2012-12-04 16:05:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the bear forgot to paw it, I guess 2012-12-04 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such is life... 2012-12-04 16:06:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I just don't see the value in shorting here-so I'm using individual issues long 2012-12-04 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's where we left things on Thursday... 2012-12-04 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look around the major averages right now 2012-12-04 16:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are playing EMA tag with the 50 day EMA in most cases 2012-12-04 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID, SML and RUT are above this EMA 2012-12-04 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps are in and around 2012-12-04 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this remains 2012-12-04 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to challenge the November lows 2012-12-04 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the very most...trend sideways 2012-12-04 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every alert now from CNBC has a "Fiscal Cliff" reference 2012-12-04 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing 2012-12-04 16:08:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a cliff is like a wall, eh? 2012-12-04 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and let's see what's happening... 2012-12-04 16:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to higher highs last Thursday 2012-12-04 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continues to chop around here 2012-12-04 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today giving us a small point change on this MCO 2012-12-04 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from this past weekends review 2012-12-04 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (which, by the way, I'm sorry I didn't have the time to comment as we were fighting mother nature) 2012-12-04 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw that the CO NYSE A/D line had broken above its declining tops line 2012-12-04 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something that took the better part of a month to do on the last rally 2012-12-04 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're playing with a stronger market right now than what we saw at the beginning of September 2012-12-04 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should play out well as we move into the new year 2012-12-04 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO MCO breadth components 2012-12-04 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain in gear to the upside for now 2012-12-04 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we combine the MCO and its components 2012-12-04 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that have had enough energy moving in to where the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has moved above its zero line 2012-12-04 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us that the bulls have regained control of the market on an intermediate term basis 2012-12-04 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the strength we see on this recent pause to refresh 2012-12-04 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see higher highs in the MCSUM over the next couple of days 2012-12-04 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the objective of the +250 level where we have both pattern and 250 multiple resistance resides 2012-12-04 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite 2012-12-04 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's a bit weaker here 2012-12-04 16:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that of the CO data 2012-12-04 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM 2012-12-04 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are already at this same important resistance level of +250 with today's reading of a +208 2012-12-04 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next day or so should tell us something about our ongoing discussion on whether the market has bottomed or not 2012-12-04 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if we get fresh buying here near term 2012-12-04 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and push the MCO and MCSUM higher 2012-12-04 16:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would the increase the chance that the 11/16 lows were, in fact, the pattern sequence lows of the last correction 2012-12-04 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're either going to test the highs and then move down and INTO the mid December lows 2012-12-04 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just chop around sideways and move up and OUT of these expected lows 2012-12-04 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things is for sure though 2012-12-04 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's becoming more and more likely that we will see at least one more new recovery price highs in this current sequence before the bears will have any chance at all of trying to wrestle control back again from the buyers 2012-12-04 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continued to pull back from its high point of last week 2012-12-04 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is at the -250 level with a reading of -241 2012-12-04 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is the first real hurdle for both sides in what should turn out to be an important sequence 2012-12-04 16:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which side is likely to win out with the current fundamental expectations of debt and cliffs 2012-12-04 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...this fiscal cliff backdrop is playing very much like we saw with Y2K with the same time line involved 2012-12-04 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components 2012-12-04 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% Trend has now snapped back down to its zero line 2012-12-04 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce off this same line of neutrality should be seen over the near term 2012-12-04 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term meaning the next couple of days 2012-12-04 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise 2012-12-04 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above the psychological price level of 3000 last week 2012-12-04 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we've had a successful pullback to this same number 2012-12-04 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this increases the likelihood of some sort of bullish play near term as well 2012-12-04 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO 2012-12-04 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it remains above its reaction lows 2012-12-04 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...they want to continue to develop a complex sideways pattern 2012-12-04 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears...they want to see a break of these same recent lows 2012-12-04 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation from last week was for some complexity above the MCO zero line for a week or so 2012-12-04 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far, the markets ability to remain as bouyant as it has been, helps support the idea of this same complex pattern development 2012-12-04 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO 2012-12-04 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the same kind of MCO patten as that of the NDX 2012-12-04 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are in a complex pattern 2012-12-04 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now move higher within this structure...in what should be a range bound pattern in the MCO 2012-12-04 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted that the SPX breadth MCSUM moved back above its zero line today 2012-12-04 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important day or two coming up as far as consistency and follow through is concerned 2012-12-04 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is also looking like a complex pattern right now 2012-12-04 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX breadth MCSUM is still a bit away from its zero line with a reading of -59 2012-12-04 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a strong day tomorrow will get it to the zero line 2012-12-04 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which 2012-12-04 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is also slightly below its zero line with a -43 reading 2012-12-04 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with prices here still having some upside potential 2012-12-04 16:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of maybe another 200 Dow points 2012-12-04 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still remain within the idea of a mid December pullback to an eventual tradable bottom 2012-12-04 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO 2012-12-04 16:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCSUM clearing another hurdle of pattern resistance over the last couple of days 2012-12-04 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain just below the previous price tops in what looks like a simple pause to refresh in progress before the real attempt to break out above these same tops 2012-12-04 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also 2012-12-04 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that for several months now 2012-12-04 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has been leading off on the jobs data...usually on Thursday 2012-12-04 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need to be prepared for a possible push higher in front of this data 2012-12-04 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well with the SML breadth MCO 2012-12-04 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way this MCO refuses to move lower here 2012-12-04 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this reflects the strong amount of buying strength currently in spite of all the negatives...from increasing taxes - to debt worries - to political banter 2012-12-04 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money is betting on a positive resolution to all of this...at least for now 2012-12-04 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the SML breadth MCSUM has also moved above its zero line today 2012-12-04 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well... 2012-12-04 16:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not 2012-12-04 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it says a -2 2012-12-04 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the chart shows it slightly above the zero line 2012-12-04 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll call it AT the zero line 2012-12-04 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing great post expansion to the upside 2012-12-04 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the wider the posts 2012-12-04 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the flow of money entering the market 2012-12-04 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a little bit on the surprising side 2012-12-04 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TM breadth MCO did move below its recent reaction lows today 2012-12-04 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of the overall firmness we've seen in the data so far 2012-12-04 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCSUM? 2012-12-04 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yes, it too is at the zero line now 2012-12-04 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -8 2012-12-04 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-12-04 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears are going to take a swipe at the bulls 2012-12-04 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the prime time to do so 2012-12-04 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they swing, and miss, the sellers will have to run for cover 2012-12-04 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could last a day or two 2012-12-04 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would set us up for Friday's numbers 2012-12-04 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now... 2012-12-04 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bulls ball to lose 2012-12-04 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the control 2012-12-04 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at the sector charts tonight 2012-12-04 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: The XLY breadth MCO has a divergent top in place 2012-12-04 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern only testing its highs of the year 2012-12-04 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM did cross its first bearish pattern hurdle last week 2012-12-04 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now is weakening as it moves closer to its zero line 2012-12-04 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is an area that could be a short term problem 2012-12-04 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember that 2012-12-04 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a longshoreman strike going on right now in Los Angeles 2012-12-04 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has lasted for 2 weeks now 2012-12-04 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cargo ships are now backed up off the coast 2012-12-04 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once there's an agreement...if there is one (note: the strike ended this morning) 2012-12-04 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the general rule is that for every week of strike 2012-12-04 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes two weeks to get things back to "normal" 2012-12-04 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 weeks = 4 weeks if they settle tomorrow 2012-12-04 16:47:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wouldn't this be a good rotation point, as well, causing some index to falter-while others persist, or strengthen? 2012-12-04 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that kills the holidays for many retailers 2012-12-04 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes 2012-12-04 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who don't heavily rely on cargo will see money moving in 2012-12-04 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but discretionary is very sensitive to this 2012-12-04 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money may be moving out now because when January rolls around, there will be a lot of lost sales 2012-12-04 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit 2012-12-04 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expect retail sales for December to be weak 2012-12-04 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer this goes on 2012-12-04 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the worst it will get 2012-12-04 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...just a warning 2012-12-04 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is in a much better position here 2012-12-04 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in the way of MCO complexity 2012-12-04 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the XLP breadth MCSUM is moving strongly higher 2012-12-04 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we pointed out a couple of weeks ago 2012-12-04 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move above the +600 level will clear the way for new all time highs in this ETF 2012-12-04 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reading of +551 does push things into escape velocity 2012-12-04 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be that difficult to move above this same area of resistance (+600) 2012-12-04 16:51:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've started to cherry pic Jan calls in this sector-love the look! 2012-12-04 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and may do so as soon as tomorrow 2012-12-04 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...you still holding FB for mom? 2012-12-04 16:52:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: y 2012-12-04 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice call on that one! 2012-12-04 16:52:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx 2012-12-04 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we got that double bottom 2012-12-04 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up...what? 50%? 2012-12-04 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to it 2012-12-04 16:52:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes 2012-12-04 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite 50...40 2012-12-04 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still 2012-12-04 16:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in about 2 weeks 2012-12-04 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when no one was looking 2012-12-04 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make that 3 weeks 2012-12-04 16:54:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: she has that, ORI, and she's going to get MO if I can get it to correct 2012-12-04 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't forget the REITS and UTIL's 2012-12-04 16:54:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good point 2012-12-04 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO continues to falter here 2012-12-04 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the struggle this sector has had in attracting money with the XLE breadth MCSUM 2012-12-04 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...it's been a warm winter 2012-12-04 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't look too appealing here...at least for now 2012-12-04 16:56:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my daughters father in law works for a large builder (apartments, multi) and their biz is just smoking..so the reits will probably do very well 2012-12-04 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that is interest rate sensitive should 2012-12-04 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the small caps screaming here 2012-12-04 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of these riskier, low priced REITS, are really a steal here 2012-12-04 16:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the one I suggested two months ago...TWO?? 2012-12-04 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like all of the REITS 2012-12-04 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had its swoon in mid November 2012-12-04 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at the recovery! 2012-12-04 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still yielding 12.70% 2012-12-04 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money continues to move into income stocks 2012-12-04 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the yield, the better 2012-12-04 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the junk market 2012-12-04 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: preferred stocks 2012-12-04 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Specialties 2012-12-04 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much money in the system to allow stocks to stay under water for any length of time 2012-12-04 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-12-04 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you know that the NASDAQ had its best November gain since 2009? 2012-12-04 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's in spite of the mid month swoon 2012-12-04 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO looks very much like the XLE 2012-12-04 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the struggle here with the XLF breadth MCSUM finding resistance at the +250 level 2012-12-04 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then, we have only the consumer staples leading the way 2012-12-04 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO and MCSUM look a bit better 2012-12-04 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing to really write home about 2012-12-04 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV price pattern at horizontal resistance 2012-12-04 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter now of "show me" as to what we should have in store for this sector 2012-12-04 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we thought would happen 2012-12-04 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM did make it up to the +500 level 2012-12-04 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also moved above this level in the last couple of days 2012-12-04 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of +539 2012-12-04 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this sector providing analytical insight to the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports 2012-12-04 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength here would suggest higher stock levels for these two indices 2012-12-04 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one real negative though 2012-12-04 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we did see the XLI breadth MCO take it on the chin yesterday 2012-12-04 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be important that the buyers keep the pressure on here so that we can have follow through strength above the +500 level 2012-12-04 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM continues to really struggle here 2012-12-04 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it not only move sideways 2012-12-04 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also remains below its zero line 2012-12-04 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no interest either way until we either break above or below this ongoing range 2012-12-04 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO remains strong 2012-12-04 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should push through the -250 level on the XLK breadth MCSUM as soon as Wednesday 2012-12-04 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a test of the zero line is probably the target here...minimally speaking 2012-12-04 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see this MCSUM move to the +400 level and still remain under the declining tops line seen connecting the February and September highs 2012-12-04 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLU breadth MCSUM moving to heavily "oversold" 2012-12-04 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we can get both the XLU breadth MCO, and its components, back above their zero lines 2012-12-04 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would provide a good buy signal for the sector at large 2012-12-04 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at some of the utility stocks 2012-12-04 17:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might want to just buy the XLU and work with its 3.5% yield 2012-12-04 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of having to pick and choose 2012-12-04 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though...there are some attractive issues out there 2012-12-04 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just takes a bit of homework 2012-12-04 17:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-12-04 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have consumer staples, the industrials, and the tech sectors leading the charge here 2012-12-04 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not broad enough to suggest an advancing trend for the market in general 2012-12-04 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough strength to suggest that it's unlikely that we're going to need to challenge the November price lows 2012-12-04 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the XLV and XLU join in 2012-12-04 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great 2012-12-04 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would watch the XLF at this juncture 2012-12-04 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if there's one sector that is very sensitive to all of the garbage going on right now it would be... 2012-12-04 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials 2012-12-04 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's 2012-12-04 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with the lone exception of the MID volume MCSUM 2012-12-04 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ALL of the other volume MCSUM's are not only below their zero lines 2012-12-04 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all are within striking distance now of attempting to move back above these same demarcation lines between bull and bear 2012-12-04 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this suggests that if we're going to get much above current price levels 2012-12-04 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there MUST be better than average positive volume plurality in order for this to happen 2012-12-04 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...some may think that it might come until Friday 2012-12-04 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone is "standing on the sidelines" 2012-12-04 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the ADP (tomorrow) and claims (Thursday) look good 2012-12-04 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that may be all that the players want to see in light of how Sandy has produced an aberration to the data of late 2012-12-04 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless 2012-12-04 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets are not likely to move above the early November highs without good volume plurality to accompany it 2012-12-04 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our being at the volume MCSUM zero lines 2012-12-04 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can and will take control 2012-12-04 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like we have an important couple of days coming up 2012-12-04 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we fail 2012-12-04 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we look for the likely target to expect our mid December lows 2012-12-04 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we succeed to break above the MCSUM zero lines 2012-12-04 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll likely see a challenge of the 52 week highs 2012-12-04 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is really not that far away 2012-12-04 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for most of the major indices 2012-12-04 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30 points for the SPX, for example 2012-12-04 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see 2012-12-04 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral 2012-12-04 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain frothy 2012-12-04 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's, with the exception of the NDX, remain neutral as well 2012-12-04 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.05 2012-12-04 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08 2012-12-04 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not favoring a pull back 2012-12-04 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a churn if anything else 2012-12-04 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .93 2012-12-04 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91 2012-12-04 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral 2012-12-04 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being close to "overbought" last Thursday 2012-12-04 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a nice bit of "correcting on the fly" 2012-12-04 17:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .96 2012-12-04 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96 2012-12-04 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-12-04 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls had the ball on their 10 yard line last week 2012-12-04 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the goal line stand defense by the bears has been successful...so far 2012-12-04 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's 4th down now... 2012-12-04 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and time to put up or shut up 2012-12-04 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bulls not in the mood for a field goal 2012-12-04 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want a score 2012-12-04 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes 2012-12-04 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-12-04 17:28:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: To me, the consideration here is whether we move higher before we go back down and make the low we can buy hard-or whether we go down to it from here. It would seem the actual price lows are in. Am I looking at this differently than you? 2012-12-04 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think you summarized today's chat nicely 2012-12-04 17:28:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nuff said 2012-12-04 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at a point in which we see inherent strength 2012-12-04 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've had a 2-3 day pause 2012-12-04 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little effect by the bears 2012-12-04 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices have been churning 2012-12-04 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the path of least resistance suggests we make another attempt higher 2012-12-04 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there are takers 2012-12-04 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we break above the November price consolidation zones 2012-12-04 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now... 2012-12-04 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're looking to buy strength 2012-12-04 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those issues that are moving higher in spite of any pause 2012-12-04 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like...what was that stock you said went up 7% today? 2012-12-04 17:30:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fslr 2012-12-04 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2012-12-04 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go 2012-12-04 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that 2012-12-04 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was with high volume 2012-12-04 17:31:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have a 34.50 target on it-and sure do agree-buy strength 2012-12-04 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it moved above the 200 day EMA 2012-12-04 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look 2012-12-04 17:31:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, EMA's line up nicely, I feel 2012-12-04 17:32:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: broke out of a triangle, with volume on the breakout-triangle had nice width-just old school trading 2012-12-04 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like after some back and fill at the 200 day EMA to allow the 20 and 50 day EMA's to catch up 2012-12-04 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the target is about 47 2012-12-04 17:33:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow! 2012-12-04 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look at the final decline in February/March period 2012-12-04 17:33:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll have to take another look, THX 2012-12-04 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have no resistance here 2012-12-04 17:33:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope 2012-12-04 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as one vacuum is created 2012-12-04 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same vacuum exists to be filled 2012-12-04 17:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart looks good 2012-12-04 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-12-04 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line here is... 2012-12-04 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have an outstanding time objective by the MCSUM suggesting a tradable low is likely in mid December 2012-12-04 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime 2012-12-04 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is now enough strength right now to keep prices from moving lower in any important manner 2012-12-04 17:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this with many of the MCO's ability of staying in and around their highs 2012-12-04 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some still above their recent reaction lows 2012-12-04 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until these same reaction lows are broken 2012-12-04 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of LEAST RESISTANCE remains with the buyers 2012-12-04 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else 2012-12-04 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off 2012-12-04 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days 2012-12-04 17:37:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much 2012-12-04 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday 2012-12-04 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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