All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 5,093
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-12-04 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-12-04 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-12-04 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-12-04 16:04:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: My FSLR was up 7.68 percent today, LOL
2012-12-04 16:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Ho Hum...
2012-12-04 16:05:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the bear forgot to paw it, I guess
2012-12-04 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such is life...
2012-12-04 16:06:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I just don't see the value in shorting here-so I'm using individual issues long
2012-12-04 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's where we left things on Thursday...
2012-12-04 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look around the major averages right now
2012-12-04 16:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are playing EMA tag with the 50 day EMA in most cases
2012-12-04 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID, SML and RUT are above this EMA
2012-12-04 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps are in and around
2012-12-04 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this remains
2012-12-04 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to challenge the November lows
2012-12-04 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the very most...trend sideways
2012-12-04 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every alert now from CNBC has a "Fiscal Cliff" reference
2012-12-04 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing
2012-12-04 16:08:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a cliff is like a wall, eh?
2012-12-04 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and let's see what's happening...
2012-12-04 16:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to higher highs last Thursday
2012-12-04 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continues to chop around here
2012-12-04 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today giving us a small point change on this MCO
2012-12-04 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from this past weekends review
2012-12-04 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (which, by the way, I'm sorry I didn't have the time to comment as we were fighting mother nature)
2012-12-04 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw that the CO NYSE A/D line had broken above its declining tops line
2012-12-04 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something that took the better part of a month to do on the last rally
2012-12-04 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're playing with a stronger market right now than what we saw at the beginning of September
2012-12-04 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should play out well as we move into the new year
2012-12-04 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO MCO breadth components
2012-12-04 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain in gear to the upside for now
2012-12-04 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we combine the MCO and its components
2012-12-04 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that have had enough energy moving in to where the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has moved above its zero line
2012-12-04 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us that the bulls have regained control of the market on an intermediate term basis
2012-12-04 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the strength we see on this recent pause to refresh
2012-12-04 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see higher highs in the MCSUM over the next couple of days
2012-12-04 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the objective of the +250 level where we have both pattern and 250 multiple resistance resides
2012-12-04 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite
2012-12-04 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's a bit weaker here
2012-12-04 16:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that of the CO data
2012-12-04 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM
2012-12-04 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are already at this same important resistance level of +250 with today's reading of a +208
2012-12-04 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next day or so should tell us something about our ongoing discussion on whether the market has bottomed or not
2012-12-04 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if we get fresh buying here near term
2012-12-04 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and push the MCO and MCSUM higher
2012-12-04 16:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would the increase the chance that the 11/16 lows were, in fact, the pattern sequence lows of the last correction
2012-12-04 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're either going to test the highs and then move down and INTO the mid December lows
2012-12-04 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just chop around sideways and move up and OUT of these expected lows
2012-12-04 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things is for sure though
2012-12-04 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's becoming more and more likely that we will see at least one more new recovery price highs in this current sequence before the bears will have any chance at all of trying to wrestle control back again from the buyers
2012-12-04 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO continued to pull back from its high point of last week
2012-12-04 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is at the -250 level with a reading of -241
2012-12-04 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is the first real hurdle for both sides in what should turn out to be an important sequence
2012-12-04 16:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which side is likely to win out with the current fundamental expectations of debt and cliffs
2012-12-04 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...this fiscal cliff backdrop is playing very much like we saw with Y2K with the same time line involved
2012-12-04 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2012-12-04 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% Trend has now snapped back down to its zero line
2012-12-04 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce off this same line of neutrality should be seen over the near term
2012-12-04 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term meaning the next couple of days
2012-12-04 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise
2012-12-04 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above the psychological price level of 3000 last week
2012-12-04 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we've had a successful pullback to this same number
2012-12-04 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this increases the likelihood of some sort of bullish play near term as well
2012-12-04 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2012-12-04 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it remains above its reaction lows
2012-12-04 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...they want to continue to develop a complex sideways pattern
2012-12-04 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears...they want to see a break of these same recent lows
2012-12-04 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation from last week was for some complexity above the MCO zero line for a week or so
2012-12-04 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far, the markets ability to remain as bouyant as it has been, helps support the idea of this same complex pattern development
2012-12-04 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2012-12-04 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the same kind of MCO patten as that of the NDX
2012-12-04 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are in a complex pattern
2012-12-04 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now move higher within this what should be a range bound pattern in the MCO
2012-12-04 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted that the SPX breadth MCSUM moved back above its zero line today
2012-12-04 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important day or two coming up as far as consistency and follow through is concerned
2012-12-04 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is also looking like a complex pattern right now
2012-12-04 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX breadth MCSUM is still a bit away from its zero line with a reading of -59
2012-12-04 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a strong day tomorrow will get it to the zero line
2012-12-04 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2012-12-04 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is also slightly below its zero line with a -43 reading
2012-12-04 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with prices here still having some upside potential
2012-12-04 16:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of maybe another 200 Dow points
2012-12-04 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still remain within the idea of a mid December pullback to an eventual tradable bottom
2012-12-04 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2012-12-04 16:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCSUM clearing another hurdle of pattern resistance over the last couple of days
2012-12-04 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain just below the previous price tops in what looks like a simple pause to refresh in progress before the real attempt to break out above these same tops
2012-12-04 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2012-12-04 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that for several months now
2012-12-04 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has been leading off on the jobs data...usually on Thursday
2012-12-04 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need to be prepared for a possible push higher in front of this data
2012-12-04 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well with the SML breadth MCO
2012-12-04 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way this MCO refuses to move lower here
2012-12-04 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this reflects the strong amount of buying strength currently in spite of all the negatives...from increasing taxes - to debt worries - to political banter
2012-12-04 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money is betting on a positive resolution to all of least for now
2012-12-04 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the SML breadth MCSUM has also moved above its zero line today
2012-12-04 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-12-04 16:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not
2012-12-04 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it says a -2
2012-12-04 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the chart shows it slightly above the zero line
2012-12-04 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll call it AT the zero line
2012-12-04 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing great post expansion to the upside
2012-12-04 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the wider the posts
2012-12-04 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the flow of money entering the market
2012-12-04 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a little bit on the surprising side
2012-12-04 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TM breadth MCO did move below its recent reaction lows today
2012-12-04 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of the overall firmness we've seen in the data so far
2012-12-04 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCSUM?
2012-12-04 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yes, it too is at the zero line now
2012-12-04 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -8
2012-12-04 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-04 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears are going to take a swipe at the bulls
2012-12-04 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the prime time to do so
2012-12-04 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they swing, and miss, the sellers will have to run for cover
2012-12-04 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could last a day or two
2012-12-04 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would set us up for Friday's numbers
2012-12-04 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2012-12-04 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bulls ball to lose
2012-12-04 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the control
2012-12-04 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at the sector charts tonight
2012-12-04 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: The XLY breadth MCO has a divergent top in place
2012-12-04 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern only testing its highs of the year
2012-12-04 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM did cross its first bearish pattern hurdle last week
2012-12-04 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now is weakening as it moves closer to its zero line
2012-12-04 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is an area that could be a short term problem
2012-12-04 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember that
2012-12-04 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a longshoreman strike going on right now in Los Angeles
2012-12-04 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has lasted for 2 weeks now
2012-12-04 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cargo ships are now backed up off the coast
2012-12-04 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once there's an agreement...if there is one (note: the strike ended this morning)
2012-12-04 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the general rule is that for every week of strike
2012-12-04 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes two weeks to get things back to "normal"
2012-12-04 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 weeks = 4 weeks if they settle tomorrow
2012-12-04 16:47:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wouldn't this be a good rotation point, as well, causing some index to falter-while others persist, or strengthen?
2012-12-04 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that kills the holidays for many retailers
2012-12-04 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-12-04 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who don't heavily rely on cargo will see money moving in
2012-12-04 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but discretionary is very sensitive to this
2012-12-04 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money may be moving out now because when January rolls around, there will be a lot of lost sales
2012-12-04 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2012-12-04 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expect retail sales for December to be weak
2012-12-04 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer this goes on
2012-12-04 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the worst it will get
2012-12-04 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...just a warning
2012-12-04 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is in a much better position here
2012-12-04 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in the way of MCO complexity
2012-12-04 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the XLP breadth MCSUM is moving strongly higher
2012-12-04 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we pointed out a couple of weeks ago
2012-12-04 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move above the +600 level will clear the way for new all time highs in this ETF
2012-12-04 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reading of +551 does push things into escape velocity
2012-12-04 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be that difficult to move above this same area of resistance (+600)
2012-12-04 16:51:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've started to cherry pic Jan calls in this sector-love the look!
2012-12-04 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and may do so as soon as tomorrow
2012-12-04 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still holding FB for mom?
2012-12-04 16:52:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: y
2012-12-04 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice call on that one!
2012-12-04 16:52:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-12-04 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we got that double bottom
2012-12-04 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up...what? 50%?
2012-12-04 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to it
2012-12-04 16:52:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-12-04 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite 50...40
2012-12-04 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still
2012-12-04 16:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in about 2 weeks
2012-12-04 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when no one was looking
2012-12-04 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make that 3 weeks
2012-12-04 16:54:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: she has that, ORI, and she's going to get MO if I can get it to correct
2012-12-04 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't forget the REITS and UTIL's
2012-12-04 16:54:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good point
2012-12-04 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO continues to falter here
2012-12-04 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the struggle this sector has had in attracting money with the XLE breadth MCSUM
2012-12-04 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so's been a warm winter
2012-12-04 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't look too appealing least for now
2012-12-04 16:56:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my daughters father in law works for a large builder (apartments, multi) and their biz is just the reits will probably do very well
2012-12-04 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that is interest rate sensitive should
2012-12-04 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the small caps screaming here
2012-12-04 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of these riskier, low priced REITS, are really a steal here
2012-12-04 16:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the one I suggested two months ago...TWO??
2012-12-04 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like all of the REITS
2012-12-04 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had its swoon in mid November
2012-12-04 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at the recovery!
2012-12-04 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still yielding 12.70%
2012-12-04 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money continues to move into income stocks
2012-12-04 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the yield, the better
2012-12-04 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the junk market
2012-12-04 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: preferred stocks
2012-12-04 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Specialties
2012-12-04 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much money in the system to allow stocks to stay under water for any length of time
2012-12-04 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-12-04 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you know that the NASDAQ had its best November gain since 2009?
2012-12-04 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's in spite of the mid month swoon
2012-12-04 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO looks very much like the XLE
2012-12-04 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the struggle here with the XLF breadth MCSUM finding resistance at the +250 level
2012-12-04 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then, we have only the consumer staples leading the way
2012-12-04 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO and MCSUM look a bit better
2012-12-04 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing to really write home about
2012-12-04 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV price pattern at horizontal resistance
2012-12-04 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter now of "show me" as to what we should have in store for this sector
2012-12-04 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we thought would happen
2012-12-04 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM did make it up to the +500 level
2012-12-04 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also moved above this level in the last couple of days
2012-12-04 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of +539
2012-12-04 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this sector providing analytical insight to the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
2012-12-04 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength here would suggest higher stock levels for these two indices
2012-12-04 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one real negative though
2012-12-04 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we did see the XLI breadth MCO take it on the chin yesterday
2012-12-04 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be important that the buyers keep the pressure on here so that we can have follow through strength above the +500 level
2012-12-04 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM continues to really struggle here
2012-12-04 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it not only move sideways
2012-12-04 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also remains below its zero line
2012-12-04 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no interest either way until we either break above or below this ongoing range
2012-12-04 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO remains strong
2012-12-04 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should push through the -250 level on the XLK breadth MCSUM as soon as Wednesday
2012-12-04 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a test of the zero line is probably the target here...minimally speaking
2012-12-04 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see this MCSUM move to the +400 level and still remain under the declining tops line seen connecting the February and September highs
2012-12-04 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLU breadth MCSUM moving to heavily "oversold"
2012-12-04 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we can get both the XLU breadth MCO, and its components, back above their zero lines
2012-12-04 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would provide a good buy signal for the sector at large
2012-12-04 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at some of the utility stocks
2012-12-04 17:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might want to just buy the XLU and work with its 3.5% yield
2012-12-04 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of having to pick and choose
2012-12-04 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though...there are some attractive issues out there
2012-12-04 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just takes a bit of homework
2012-12-04 17:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-04 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have consumer staples, the industrials, and the tech sectors leading the charge here
2012-12-04 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not broad enough to suggest an advancing trend for the market in general
2012-12-04 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough strength to suggest that it's unlikely that we're going to need to challenge the November price lows
2012-12-04 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the XLV and XLU join in
2012-12-04 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2012-12-04 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would watch the XLF at this juncture
2012-12-04 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if there's one sector that is very sensitive to all of the garbage going on right now it would be...
2012-12-04 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials
2012-12-04 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2012-12-04 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with the lone exception of the MID volume MCSUM
2012-12-04 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ALL of the other volume MCSUM's are not only below their zero lines
2012-12-04 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all are within striking distance now of attempting to move back above these same demarcation lines between bull and bear
2012-12-04 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this suggests that if we're going to get much above current price levels
2012-12-04 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there MUST be better than average positive volume plurality in order for this to happen
2012-12-04 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...some may think that it might come until Friday
2012-12-04 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone is "standing on the sidelines"
2012-12-04 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the ADP (tomorrow) and claims (Thursday) look good
2012-12-04 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that may be all that the players want to see in light of how Sandy has produced an aberration to the data of late
2012-12-04 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2012-12-04 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets are not likely to move above the early November highs without good volume plurality to accompany it
2012-12-04 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our being at the volume MCSUM zero lines
2012-12-04 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can and will take control
2012-12-04 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like we have an important couple of days coming up
2012-12-04 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we fail
2012-12-04 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we look for the likely target to expect our mid December lows
2012-12-04 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we succeed to break above the MCSUM zero lines
2012-12-04 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll likely see a challenge of the 52 week highs
2012-12-04 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is really not that far away
2012-12-04 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for most of the major indices
2012-12-04 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30 points for the SPX, for example
2012-12-04 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2012-12-04 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2012-12-04 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain frothy
2012-12-04 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's, with the exception of the NDX, remain neutral as well
2012-12-04 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.05
2012-12-04 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2012-12-04 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not favoring a pull back
2012-12-04 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a churn if anything else
2012-12-04 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .93
2012-12-04 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2012-12-04 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2012-12-04 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being close to "overbought" last Thursday
2012-12-04 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a nice bit of "correcting on the fly"
2012-12-04 17:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .96
2012-12-04 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2012-12-04 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-12-04 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls had the ball on their 10 yard line last week
2012-12-04 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the goal line stand defense by the bears has been far
2012-12-04 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's 4th down now...
2012-12-04 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and time to put up or shut up
2012-12-04 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bulls not in the mood for a field goal
2012-12-04 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want a score
2012-12-04 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes
2012-12-04 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-04 17:28:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: To me, the consideration here is whether we move higher before we go back down and make the low we can buy hard-or whether we go down to it from here. It would seem the actual price lows are in. Am I looking at this differently than you?
2012-12-04 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think you summarized today's chat nicely
2012-12-04 17:28:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nuff said
2012-12-04 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at a point in which we see inherent strength
2012-12-04 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've had a 2-3 day pause
2012-12-04 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little effect by the bears
2012-12-04 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices have been churning
2012-12-04 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the path of least resistance suggests we make another attempt higher
2012-12-04 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there are takers
2012-12-04 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we break above the November price consolidation zones
2012-12-04 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2012-12-04 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're looking to buy strength
2012-12-04 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those issues that are moving higher in spite of any pause
2012-12-04 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like...what was that stock you said went up 7% today?
2012-12-04 17:30:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fslr
2012-12-04 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-12-04 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2012-12-04 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that
2012-12-04 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was with high volume
2012-12-04 17:31:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have a 34.50 target on it-and sure do agree-buy strength
2012-12-04 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it moved above the 200 day EMA
2012-12-04 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look
2012-12-04 17:31:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, EMA's line up nicely, I feel
2012-12-04 17:32:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: broke out of a triangle, with volume on the breakout-triangle had nice width-just old school trading
2012-12-04 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like after some back and fill at the 200 day EMA to allow the 20 and 50 day EMA's to catch up
2012-12-04 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the target is about 47
2012-12-04 17:33:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow!
2012-12-04 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look at the final decline in February/March period
2012-12-04 17:33:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll have to take another look, THX
2012-12-04 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have no resistance here
2012-12-04 17:33:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2012-12-04 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as one vacuum is created
2012-12-04 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same vacuum exists to be filled
2012-12-04 17:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart looks good
2012-12-04 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-04 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line here is...
2012-12-04 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have an outstanding time objective by the MCSUM suggesting a tradable low is likely in mid December
2012-12-04 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2012-12-04 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is now enough strength right now to keep prices from moving lower in any important manner
2012-12-04 17:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this with many of the MCO's ability of staying in and around their highs
2012-12-04 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some still above their recent reaction lows
2012-12-04 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until these same reaction lows are broken
2012-12-04 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of LEAST RESISTANCE remains with the buyers
2012-12-04 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-12-04 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-12-04 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2012-12-04 17:37:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2012-12-04 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2012-12-04 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2020 Technical Watch