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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-01-24 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-01-24 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-01-24 16:00:22 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi
2012-01-24 16:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2012-01-24 16:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in today near a record low... 59
2012-01-24 16:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single dip is a put bonanza!
2012-01-24 16:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that this current structure is very strong
2012-01-24 16:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-01-24 16:02:34 [Message] manuj -> Chat: i saw the 3-step bull market initiation comment on combo chart
2012-01-24 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-01-24 16:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for reminding me
2012-01-24 16:02:52 [Message] manuj -> Chat: i have some idea about the 3-steps but will like to hear your explanation
2012-01-24 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe I marked it as "possible"
2012-01-24 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were generally right with the guidelines from last Thursday
2012-01-24 16:03:27 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yes i believe you did :-)
2012-01-24 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM needs to bottom at -1500 or lower
2012-01-24 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must transverse 2000 data points to the upside in a 3 step pattern
2012-01-24 16:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it must take place within 22 weeks
2012-01-24 16:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe I said months...but I corrected that on the transcripts
2012-01-24 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-01-24 16:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the possible part is primarily because that we didn't start at the low extremes indicated by the guidelines
2012-01-24 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do have a 3 step
2012-01-24 16:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also haven't traveled 2000 data points at this juncture on the RA
2012-01-24 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that could change soon
2012-01-24 16:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the purpose of these chats
2012-01-24 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should focus on how far the MCSUM's will now travel since we have now taken out the previous highs
2012-01-24 16:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I thought we would review things tonight on a 3 year basis so that we get a better eyes view of things
2012-01-24 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from the guidelines
2012-01-24 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is in a very strong uptrend right now
2012-01-24 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all that it needs is clarity
2012-01-24 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news
2012-01-24 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be off to the races
2012-01-24 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as price will begin to play catch up to breadth's leadership
2012-01-24 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-01-24 16:07:47 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks
2012-01-24 16:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2012-01-24 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-01-24 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...lets look at the 3 year charts tonight
2012-01-24 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a small point change on the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2012-01-24 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control the pattern
2012-01-24 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's important with that is
2012-01-24 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we pretty much have at least another week or so before we'll have any indication in the break of this same short term positive trend of money flow
2012-01-24 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first we break the series of bottoms
2012-01-24 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find support at the zero line
2012-01-24 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce higher to snapback to this same rising line
2012-01-24 16:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only when we move back below the zero line will we have to become defensive on our positions
2012-01-24 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no price top on the horizon at this point
2012-01-24 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even one for a pause
2012-01-24 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...it's a simple high level consolidation
2012-01-24 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we are pretty close to finishing and should see higher price highs as soon as tomorrow
2012-01-24 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2012-01-24 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're still a bit below the important November highs
2012-01-24 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but our main focus here comes with the little triple top pattern we see at the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011
2012-01-24 16:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was our divergent highs before last summers correction started
2012-01-24 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we deal with any oscillator
2012-01-24 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move above topping or below bottoming patterns
2012-01-24 16:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must take out the internal divergent highs in order for this to be accomplished
2012-01-24 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing more strength of money flow in that particular direction against this same divergence
2012-01-24 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...with that respect
2012-01-24 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are getting closer and closer
2012-01-24 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we do move above the end 2010 levels
2012-01-24 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't be able to break out and stay there
2012-01-24 16:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reading on the CO MCSUM is +605
2012-01-24 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's only 250 data points away from accomplishing this feat
2012-01-24 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to move further out in time
2012-01-24 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can then take out the thrust highs of 2009 and early 2010
2012-01-24 16:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds will climb dramatically that we will see new all time highs in the NYA index
2012-01-24 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-01-24 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we're comfortably above the +500 level
2012-01-24 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher at this time
2012-01-24 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2012-01-24 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we had a slight pull back today
2012-01-24 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we maintain a series of bottoms above bottoms overall
2012-01-24 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM
2012-01-24 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike the CO MCSUM
2012-01-24 16:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have already moved above the November highs
2012-01-24 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a challenge of the price highs of last year remains our short term target
2012-01-24 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the CO MCSUM
2012-01-24 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite will also need to move above the end 2010 highs for us to move above last years price highs
2012-01-24 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will also notice something else on these longer term charts
2012-01-24 16:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that the composite is the broadest measure of money flow available for investment
2012-01-24 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that the market was clearly showing more divergence in its structure than was the CO's
2012-01-24 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so eventually, it was the common stocks that did more of the work towards the end of the last price pattern structure that terminated in 2011
2012-01-24 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now showing better strength at this early juncture
2012-01-24 16:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also as you look at the MCSUM in this time frame
2012-01-24 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can actually see the liquidity "rhythm" in which prices had to work with
2012-01-24 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like you see on an EKG machine that measures your heart rhythms
2012-01-24 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of breadth mechanics
2012-01-24 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see an extreme of the breadth thrust created with the 2009 lows
2012-01-24 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this excess in energy is worked off over this time perimeter
2012-01-24 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2012-01-24 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't just top out and it's all finished
2012-01-24 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time to work off these kind of excesses
2012-01-24 16:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why you will always see divergent structures in oscillators...the trick then is understanding how much time might be needed before the original thrust is all used up
2012-01-24 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...think of the space shuttle
2012-01-24 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the maximum thrust is needed to lift off the launch pad
2012-01-24 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the higher it travels and away from the pull of gravity
2012-01-24 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less and less energy it needs to produce the same general results of the original thrust
2012-01-24 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until...the engines shut down (the first move below the zero line during the summer of 2010)
2012-01-24 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the momentum of this same energy is used up over time
2012-01-24 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: providing us with a series of declining tops above the zero line
2012-01-24 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the final bounce off the zero line in June of 2011
2012-01-24 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then gravity was able to take over once the MCSUM moved back below the zero line
2012-01-24 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2012-01-24 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're looking for rhythm
2012-01-24 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much cycles
2012-01-24 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more in the area of cause and the effect it will have on, in this case, prices
2012-01-24 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-01-24 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a new surge of energy entering the market
2012-01-24 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not as intense as the one we saw in 2009
2012-01-24 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was able to get refueled and begin another and stronger sequence
2012-01-24 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2012-01-24 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this thrust continues
2012-01-24 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher prices will travel
2012-01-24 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not only that
2012-01-24 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer out in time it will take for this same energy thrust to be worked off by the market
2012-01-24 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 2009...it took a little over 26 months
2012-01-24 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can move above the divergent high of +1250 seen in the spring of 2010
2012-01-24 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the expectation would be for a bull market lasting for about the same length of time
2012-01-24 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending how high we travel
2012-01-24 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say above 2000 data points as given by the 3 step guideline
2012-01-24 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can add another year to this
2012-01-24 16:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have not one but TWO levels of support holding prices up
2012-01-24 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will be absorb pretty much anything the bears can throw at it
2012-01-24 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-01-24 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2009 thrust was so strong
2012-01-24 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even the 3rd largest earthquake that we have records for, and the disaster that followed
2012-01-24 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wasn't even able to put a dent in this larger trend
2012-01-24 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-01-24 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with the August crash
2012-01-24 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in more of a sideways consolidation
2012-01-24 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not aggressively moving to new lows
2012-01-24 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only reason why this can happen is that
2012-01-24 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is more than ample liquidity out there to absorb these same correctional sequences
2012-01-24 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be able to maintain prices far above the 2009 lows
2012-01-24 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lastly
2012-01-24 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take ruler to monitor
2012-01-24 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will also note that we have indeed moved above the declining tops line of this same 3 year period
2012-01-24 16:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would suggest that the sequence from 2009 to 2011 is now a finished pattern sequence of moving up and correcting
2012-01-24 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now in a whole new pattern sequence of intermediate degree
2012-01-24 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where...it will not pattern itself exactly to the prior
2012-01-24 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be different
2012-01-24 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be different rules
2012-01-24 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a time in which, as a technician, we remain very flexible as what we used in the past may not give us the same desired results this time around
2012-01-24 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can be as simple as a time period
2012-01-24 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we deal with markets and its cycles
2012-01-24 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can either contract or expand all dependent on the environment and the stimulus being applied
2012-01-24 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for example
2012-01-24 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 8 day RSI might turn out to be a better tool than a 13 day period because of the different rhythms that come with every single market sequence
2012-01-24 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could be a 21 day RSI
2012-01-24 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again...it might remain the same...but only with the RSI indicator
2012-01-24 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a 50 period Bollinger Band might be better on the VIX as opposed to a 20 day period
2012-01-24 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing
2012-01-24 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we go along
2012-01-24 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play with your indicators
2012-01-24 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see if they give you the same consistency as before of if they need to be tweaked
2012-01-24 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO, and here too we have a small point change
2012-01-24 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is about to clear its November highs now
2012-01-24 16:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the +250 level
2012-01-24 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this rate
2012-01-24 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be accomplished by the time we get together on Thursday
2012-01-24 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year price chart here for a moment
2012-01-24 16:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the current pattern seems to be curving (or bowing) higher here
2012-01-24 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it looks to be accelerating
2012-01-24 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice series of bottoms above bottoms are also controlling this pattern as well
2012-01-24 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike the NYA
2012-01-24 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2011 correction barely covered more than half of the advance that came before
2012-01-24 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this were a bear market
2012-01-24 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we we see the secondaries showing much more weakness
2012-01-24 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in fact
2012-01-24 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the index would had been at lower lows than the NYA
2012-01-24 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the bears biggest piece of evidence that needs to be reconciled before one can embrace our being in a bear market
2012-01-24 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as bear markets tend to have tops below tops
2012-01-24 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not bottoms above bottoms...and with strength of pattern
2012-01-24 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the difference of this current advance and that of the beginning points of the 2009 and 2010 lows
2012-01-24 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we saw outward curves
2012-01-24 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here it's more of a scoop
2012-01-24 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: scoop structures are patterns of extreme strength
2012-01-24 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where we see parabolic price moves
2012-01-24 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: similar to what we see in the commodities market
2012-01-24 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can only imagine what may happen here given the amplitude of what the 2009 and 2010 patterns gave us
2012-01-24 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX price chart
2012-01-24 16:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we've been showing strength here too by being able to move to new highs
2012-01-24 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just chop just above these same highs without giving much back
2012-01-24 16:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also a sign of great strength in the pattern structure
2012-01-24 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where there are very little in the way of sellers that would be needed to break back below this same line of previous resistance
2012-01-24 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the buying picks up here, the expectation would be for some nice gains to the upside
2012-01-24 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one other thing here
2012-01-24 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the summer correction acted as a simple snapback to the previous 2010 highs
2012-01-24 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be called "stair stepping"
2012-01-24 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we move higher
2012-01-24 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look around...test what was previous support
2012-01-24 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when all is good
2012-01-24 16:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can then be moved higher because of the demand that's inherent to such structures
2012-01-24 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...taking ruler to monitor here
2012-01-24 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NDX breadth MCSUM still remains below its declining tops line going back to the fall 2010 highs
2012-01-24 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take a move above the +700 level on this MCSUM to put us in the clear
2012-01-24 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now we're at the +480 level and about to reach escape velocity as soon as Wednesday
2012-01-24 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been talking about
2012-01-24 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to stay at these new highs
2012-01-24 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that both the NDX MCO and MCSUM also move above their respective high points as well
2012-01-24 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that does leave the door open to some continued churning, if not, a deeper snapback from current levels
2012-01-24 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something like this would be more in the area of a reset to the pattern and not something more negative to worry about
2012-01-24 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we do reset
2012-01-24 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then fail to make new highs
2012-01-24 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that becomes problematic
2012-01-24 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about earlier, we're probably about a week away from anything like this to worry about
2012-01-24 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just something to share
2012-01-24 16:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also pulled back today
2012-01-24 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains with a bottom above bottom structure intact
2012-01-24 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-01-24 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the longer that MCO stays above the zero line
2012-01-24 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will allow more time for the MCSUM to move in this same direction
2012-01-24 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today it cleared the +750 level with ease
2012-01-24 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next likely target of a potential pause will be the +1000 level
2012-01-24 16:58:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems to be a lot of non confirmation from the various 5 and 10's, no?
2012-01-24 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also happens to be where a line of resistance crosses connecting the spring 2010 and 2011 highs
2012-01-24 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking a bit closer at the SPX breadth MCSUM chart
2012-01-24 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and does anyone see anything pop out at you (structurally) during the first half of 2011?
2012-01-24 17:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we peaked out in March
2012-01-24 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a waterfall decline (Japan)
2012-01-24 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then had a double top
2012-01-24 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be our classic "SOB" pattern (Sign of the Bear)
2012-01-24 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM then proceeded to trigger the event into the June lows
2012-01-24 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: attempted to rally but didn't move above the +500 level
2012-01-24 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who were in the room at the time
2012-01-24 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was our "close long positions" trigger
2012-01-24 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were out when the market had its crash sequence
2012-01-24 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2012-01-24 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have our first break of trend
2012-01-24 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where today's reading took its rising bottoms line
2012-01-24 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let's call it the accelerated rising bottoms line
2012-01-24 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still above a line that can be drawn connecting the December and early January spikes
2012-01-24 17:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...it looks like we closed right on it
2012-01-24 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the OEX breadth MCSUM has a high reading of +895
2012-01-24 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still remains below the important November highs
2012-01-24 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which came in at about the +1200 level
2012-01-24 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice
2012-01-24 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there was clearly less selling going into the 2011 price lows as there were with the 2010 lows
2012-01-24 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as shown with the higher MCSUM bottom
2012-01-24 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO continues to show a complexity to its structure above its zero line
2012-01-24 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's these kind of complex patterns that tell us who actually has control of the short term action...in this case, the bulls
2012-01-24 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID closed at new 5 month highs today
2012-01-24 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now less than 65 points from challenging its 2011 price highs
2012-01-24 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML powered higher today
2012-01-24 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while everyone else was looking at the Dow closing lower
2012-01-24 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now less than 12 points away from challenging its 2011 highs
2012-01-24 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2012-01-24 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM moved above the +500 level today
2012-01-24 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow up tomorrow
2012-01-24 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should be in good shape to test make a real challenge of last years highs
2012-01-24 17:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change for the TM breadth MCO
2012-01-24 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM has not only broken above 3 year resistance, but it's also moved above the +500 level AND it's November highs showing the broad strength of the US markets in general
2012-01-24 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-01-24 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much more to add from last week
2012-01-24 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market remains very friendly to the longs
2012-01-24 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to show better strength of pattern as every day passes
2012-01-24 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's in spite of a Greece default
2012-01-24 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...
2012-01-24 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting the feeling now that the market is certain that this is going to happen
2012-01-24 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's already discounted this
2012-01-24 17:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least to a large degree
2012-01-24 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when you have days like this today
2012-01-24 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which had the backdrop of Greece not coming to terms
2012-01-24 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market retracing much of its losses intraday
2012-01-24 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the small and mid caps closing at new highs
2012-01-24 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the high amount of put buying all point to a market that could be on a run away track
2012-01-24 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a rare event in and of itself
2012-01-24 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some could even say...melt up
2012-01-24 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that would be going overboard
2012-01-24 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the price pattern structure is there
2012-01-24 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internal physics support it
2012-01-24 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the sentiment is just plain awful which the bull loves to feed on
2012-01-24 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we're here
2012-01-24 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the breadth McClellan's in the 3 year mode
2012-01-24 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY price pattern remains at all time highs
2012-01-24 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLY breadth MCSUM about to move to its highest level in 20 months
2012-01-24 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCSUM also gives a great example of how it doesn't always mean a price top once the MCSUM declines from a high extreme
2012-01-24 17:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time to work off the momentum of the move
2012-01-24 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...we're getting a second life
2012-01-24 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP remains at around all time highs
2012-01-24 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLP breadth MCSUM refuses to move back below the +500 level
2012-01-24 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE breadth MCSUM
2012-01-24 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we did clear the +250 level
2012-01-24 17:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a change in the blueprint is now necessary
2012-01-24 17:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any close above current levels might be something to now look at long
2012-01-24 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself
2012-01-24 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is tracing out a right angle, or ascending, triangle
2012-01-24 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as money continues to move into this sector
2012-01-24 17:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a large likelihood that we're going to break out to the upside of this same triangle configuration
2012-01-24 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see quite clearly the large amount of capital continuing to move into the XLF breadth MCSUM from last summer's lows
2012-01-24 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's only a matter of time now where prices will have to pick up the pace and play catch up
2012-01-24 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM at high levels like we're at right now (+1174)
2012-01-24 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's going to have to be something on the scale of a banking melt down for prices to see any kind of weakness here
2012-01-24 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a base there for the XLF, isn't there?
2012-01-24 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a move above 15 opening the door to maybe a rally into the mid 20's
2012-01-24 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time territory as well for the XLV
2012-01-24 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLV breadth MCSUM is about to take out its November highs
2012-01-24 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change though on the XLV breadth MCO
2012-01-24 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's structure is starting to look tired here
2012-01-24 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at this same MCSUM resistance (+1000)
2012-01-24 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see if the bulls belly up now when they're needed or not for the breakout to hold
2012-01-24 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost the same scenario for the XLI data...from MCO to the MCSUM
2012-01-24 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLB breadth MCSUM is now in nose bleed territory
2012-01-24 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change in the XLB breadth MCO
2012-01-24 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still the strongest sector of the charts we have available to us
2012-01-24 17:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK is holding at 3 year highs now
2012-01-24 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls will want the XLK breadth MCSUM to move above the +500 level sooner than later
2012-01-24 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +441, that could be done as soon as tomorrow
2012-01-24 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of tech
2012-01-24 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple...wow
2012-01-24 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they sold 37 MILLION iPhones and 15.4 MILLION iPads in the 4th quarter
2012-01-24 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Chinese are buying the iPhone hand over fist!
2012-01-24 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is amazing
2012-01-24 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last I checked
2012-01-24 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL was up 8% after hours
2012-01-24 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much for slowing down the behemoth
2012-01-24 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, as expected, the XLU breadth MCSUM is now back below its zero line
2012-01-24 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minimally speaking
2012-01-24 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to look for sideways action in the XLU given the broader market strength and the sector weakness in money flow
2012-01-24 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2012-01-24 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are now neutral
2012-01-24 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control
2012-01-24 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the STVO's and the VTO's are now "overbought"
2012-01-24 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as money keeps moving in as it is
2012-01-24 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from the intraday variety, corrections are going to be hard to come by near term
2012-01-24 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.07
2012-01-24 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-01-24 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "oversold" at 1.01
2012-01-24 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember all those 5 + TRIN readings?
2012-01-24 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...they have little effect on the actual numbers currently
2012-01-24 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it showed how traders are so easily swayed to continue selling here on the heavy hitters but remain friendly to the broader group of stocks
2012-01-24 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.23
2012-01-24 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now neutral at .88
2012-01-24 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we've been above to "correct on the fly" here
2012-01-24 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not much change in prices at all
2012-01-24 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is very bullish
2012-01-24 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.09
2012-01-24 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2012-01-24 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-01-24 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is close if not already taken a nice pause to refresh here
2012-01-24 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it can begin to move higher at any time
2012-01-24 17:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain fully in control
2012-01-24 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a few obstacles away from having complete control of the action
2012-01-24 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if the bears ambushed the bulls in the next couple of days
2012-01-24 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going to amount to much
2012-01-24 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so long and strong remain the best blueprint for now
2012-01-24 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-01-24 17:41:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: If there is an ambush, it could be a VERY important buy point, just sayin...
2012-01-24 17:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you guys are so quiet....you're making me nervous
2012-01-24 17:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, the bears had their chance today, but failed to build on the initial selling
2012-01-24 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions at all...open forum time
2012-01-24 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions on indicators?
2012-01-24 17:44:14 [Message] input -> Chat: you have been doing a remarkable job keeping everyone long this market
2012-01-24 17:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: naw....I'm just reading what the market is saying
2012-01-24 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all see the same thing
2012-01-24 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you do bring up a good point
2012-01-24 17:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about earlier in the month
2012-01-24 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one were to listen to the news
2012-01-24 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would had lost out on some really nice long trades
2012-01-24 17:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have been really simple
2012-01-24 17:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no finessing here
2012-01-24 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is showing the way
2012-01-24 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as money leads, prices will generally follow
2012-01-24 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of what you may HEAR or FEEL to the contrary
2012-01-24 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else matters than the direction of money
2012-01-24 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just a distraction
2012-01-24 17:47:08 [Message] input -> Chat: agreed
2012-01-24 17:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market plays with your emotions
2012-01-24 17:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bull markets do NOT like company
2012-01-24 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will do everything it can to keep shaking your confidence
2012-01-24 17:47:57 [Message] input -> Chat: well said
2012-01-24 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-01-24 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-01-24 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2012-01-24 17:48:24 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2012-01-24 17:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2012-01-24 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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