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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Note: Unless something extraordinary happens in the markets, this will be the last chat session for the rest of 2008. In the interim, you're invited to participate in the daily chat sessions, run by Hiker, that take place when the US markets are open.

The link to the chat room is http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat.htm
2008-12-04 19:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-12-04 19:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-12-04 19:00:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: good tks, and you?
2008-12-04 19:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess...excited - that's probably the best word for it
2008-12-04 19:01:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: excited?
2008-12-04 19:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..nervous
2008-12-04 19:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: before getting started
2008-12-04 19:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will be the last chat
2008-12-04 19:03:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: ):
2008-12-04 19:03:38 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: last chat before the holidays?
2008-12-04 19:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the rest of the year...yes
2008-12-04 19:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we start going into inventory and such...
2008-12-04 19:04:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room:
2008-12-04 19:04:33 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: haha, scared me for a sec... thought u meant the last chat ever...
2008-12-04 19:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be that too..
2008-12-04 19:05:36 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room:
2008-12-04 19:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we've been doing this for 3 1/2 years - some 500 sessions - it may be time for a rest
2008-12-04 19:06:46 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Learned a lot from Fib... but hanging up trading end of this year
2008-12-04 19:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many of you already have a firm grasp of things, and there are those who may want to take the baton
2008-12-04 19:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: giving me time to move on to other things
2008-12-04 19:07:32 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: write a book, fib
2008-12-04 19:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one idea
2008-12-04 19:07:40 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: aw, so sad...
2008-12-04 19:07:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Never firm enough grasp
2008-12-04 19:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I have much to catch up with
2008-12-04 19:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll make a decision by the end of the month
2008-12-04 19:08:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: thanks for taking the time to do this for the past years...
2008-12-04 19:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just pay it forward
2008-12-04 19:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-12-04 19:09:01 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Does this market and the risk to the capitalist system (as we know it) have anything to do with your decision?
2008-12-04 19:09:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Chats were just getting better and better every month.... week .... day
2008-12-04 19:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not really leverage
2008-12-04 19:09:39 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Thanks
2008-12-04 19:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything, everything that we've been talking about was in preparation if such an event ever happened
2008-12-04 19:10:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, let's hope it does not
2008-12-04 19:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, let's hope
2008-12-04 19:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Bernanke's speech this morning was very worrisome
2008-12-04 19:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I digress...Don't worry...be happy!
2008-12-04 19:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, Hiker's newly created chat room will fill in to compliment our discussions
2008-12-04 19:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I'll stop by from time to time there
2008-12-04 19:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up, and we'll get started
2008-12-04 19:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after moving to a slightly higher high on Wednesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2008-12-04 19:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll note that with this higher high of yesterday, this is what was needed for the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to move above its previous highs as well
2008-12-04 19:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 10% component was also able to finally move above its zero line in the process
2008-12-04 19:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as usual and customary, fulfilled the technical expectation of a snapback to or towards this same line
2008-12-04 19:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 5% component, however, still is showing a lack of conviction for this same move, so we should be ready for a possible exhaustion move in this particular MCO
2008-12-04 19:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO, and it wasn't able to move to higher highs yesterday
2008-12-04 19:16:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What would an exhaustion move look like?
2008-12-04 19:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues are continuing to have problems in finding traction here
2008-12-04 19:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth wise...a double top structure
2008-12-04 19:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like we might have here with the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-12-04 19:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the kind of structure that one would see in a bull trend, but this pattern would take place BELOW the zero line
2008-12-04 19:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it suggests that all of the energy to move the market higher has, at this time, exhausted itself
2008-12-04 19:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless... we now get fresh buying
2008-12-04 19:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the thing to look for here is texture to the pattern
2008-12-04 19:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, one might suggest that we have the beginnings of some complexity to the pattern
2008-12-04 19:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the key quotient in all of this is how the components of the MCO are reacting within this same context
2008-12-04 19:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we look there, we see that the 10% component did move slightly above the zero line yesterday
2008-12-04 19:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but failed to either follow through - or - hold its ground
2008-12-04 19:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making the recent action a corrective structure in the bigger trend
2008-12-04 19:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the bulls need then is for solid follow through to the upside now
2008-12-04 19:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only to strengthen the pattern itself, but they'll need enough of this same strength to move above the highs of last month on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-12-04 19:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: problem though is...the full stochastic remains highly "overbought" here
2008-12-04 19:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the odds of any further advance in the MCO is a low probability - it's "exhausted"
2008-12-04 19:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so taking this idea to other angles, one can then surmise what might be the next higher probability outcome to such information
2008-12-04 19:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is the price pattern on the NYA showing momentum divergence?
2008-12-04 19:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are the price bars, in relation to its volume, showing sluggishness or are actually improving?
2008-12-04 19:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is sentiment complacent or fearful?
2008-12-04 19:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of these other ingredients will then give you better percentages on what we should look for on many different time levels
2008-12-04 19:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it all starts with the flow of money, and where everything else should compliment
2008-12-04 19:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at both the NYSE breadth MCO and MCSUM, we also notice divergent structures in place
2008-12-04 19:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the other thing we have to acknowledge is
2008-12-04 19:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we are exhausted, how much retracement or time will be needed for these same structures to continue to be viable within these two time frames as well
2008-12-04 19:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: market analysis is never easy or a one way street
2008-12-04 19:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must always look for reasons what would need to happen to call the current analysis into question
2008-12-04 19:28:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What divergent structure you looking at?
2008-12-04 19:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the early November lows compared to the October lows
2008-12-04 19:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I refered to the MCO divergence as a "reset" - the MCSUM divergence is self evident
2008-12-04 19:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mind you...it's kind of sloppy - not what one would claim as being solid or strong
2008-12-04 19:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as, let's say, seeing the NYSE breadth MCSUM move up to around the -750 level first, and THEN moving lower with about a 300 data point difference between one bottom and the other
2008-12-04 19:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like we had in the 2002/2003 period
2008-12-04 19:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the close proximately of these same MCSUM bottoms also highly suggest a very weak market trying it's best to get itself off the floor
2008-12-04 19:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why the initial move higher out of the October lows was doomed to fail(the marathoner sprinting after just having it's legs broken)
2008-12-04 19:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important to be very cognizant of the fact that we suffered extreme technical damage in early October that's going to take a very long time to heal
2008-12-04 19:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: referring to our discussion on the longer term NYAD line itself should help to drive this point home
2008-12-04 19:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was not a correction in a bull market, this was one angry bear
2008-12-04 19:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it had to be because the bull was very strong over the last several years
2008-12-04 19:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...maybe it was propped up a bit to disguise the cracks in the bulls armor
2008-12-04 19:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with all that is going on right now, this is a reasonable idea
2008-12-04 19:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, if I may, let me grab the longer term chart for a moment...as I would like to point out something that may not had hit home previously
2008-12-04 19:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=1992-01-01&i=p24585886126&a=11323552&r=217
2008-12-04 19:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now all of us know a couple of fundamental things about the monetary system
2008-12-04 19:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the foremost of which is that as the cost of money goes higher (FED tightening), something like the A/D line should begin to move lower as the availability of monies starts to dry up
2008-12-04 19:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we look at the annotations on the chart, it's noted that the FED started to raise rates in 2004
2008-12-04 19:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what happened was "something different" as instead of seeing a top (or sorts) and moving lower, the A/D line started to accelerate to the upside
2008-12-04 19:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED then went neutral in 2006, but STILL the A/D line continued to move higher
2008-12-04 19:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this, in retrospect, was a poor decision by the FED in stopping this same policy of putting a reign on the market
2008-12-04 19:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and produced the bubble we're now feeling the effects of right now
2008-12-04 19:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until...it was too late...and the party time of the 2000's were pierced by the sub prime market
2008-12-04 19:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after that, the FED, once again was slow to react to this problem, and now it's gotten away from them altogether
2008-12-04 19:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each day it's a new plan - each day nothing stops this same unwinding process
2008-12-04 19:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's come to a point of artificially controlling the markets
2008-12-04 19:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take today, for example, we hear that BB is playing with the idea that FNM and FRE paper should be priced a full percentage point below the markets price at 4 1/2%, and he "expects" that banks will do the same
2008-12-04 19:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...yea...and there's hoops to jump through as well
2008-12-04 19:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only those who are not credit worth to begin with only apply - not those who live up to the obligation of the paper originally signed in the first place
2008-12-04 19:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rewarding those for bad behavior is NOT the way to correct the problem in which we're currently facing
2008-12-04 19:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, and looking at the NYAD chart from where the A/D line accelerated to the upside after the FED began to raise rates
2008-12-04 19:45:29 [Message] palaj -> Main Room: so true Dave, now we have corporations lining up for handouts like welfare queens
2008-12-04 19:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would probably be the best target to look for as an area of "support" as it was this "starting point" in which things started to get out of hand
2008-12-04 19:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, just to bring balance back to the system, we still have a lot of work to do on the downside to make this happen
2008-12-04 19:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem though is if the FED and the Treasury continues this scheme of trying to put a band aid on an open gashing wound, the corrective forces will not be able to unwind in an orderly (though brutal) manner
2008-12-04 19:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically...this is what I would look for before we see any type of end to the current situation
2008-12-04 19:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: currently, we're at 160,000 on the chart - 100,000 is the target - so we have already covered 60,000 data points to this juncture
2008-12-04 19:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, if anything, we're only half way done correcting these excesses shown on the chart
2008-12-04 19:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the biggest problem is if this is extended in time and not allowed to let the whole thing just do what needs to be done in quick fashion
2008-12-04 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so people have to decide...is it better to quickly take off this bandage with a moments worth of pain...or...is it better to slowly take it off and have the pain extend for a while
2008-12-04 19:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tough choice
2008-12-04 19:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the majority, though, sharp and quick is probably better...it's over quickly
2008-12-04 19:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but to extend this would allow infection to enter the wound and make it worse
2008-12-04 19:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...this is something to keep an eye on
2008-12-04 19:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not the bandage portion...but the technical mechanics
2008-12-04 19:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and...unfortunately...we don't really know what this means for prices
2008-12-04 19:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given that we have only gone "half way", and seen cloe to 50% taken out of the markets already
2008-12-04 19:53:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: well, kind of hard for prices to rise very much if A/D drops 60000?
2008-12-04 19:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could very well be that we might be in store with something like we saw from 2000-2002 in the NASDAQ before it's all over
2008-12-04 19:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's the direction of the A/D line that's important
2008-12-04 19:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the numbers are just that
2008-12-04 19:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need to focus on the structure...not the value
2008-12-04 19:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, with this said
2008-12-04 19:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it should be understood that the ratio adjusted NYAD line looks much different
2008-12-04 19:55:21 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: for the record...the nya has declined 56%
2008-12-04 19:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is because the composite includes all of the stocks traded in the current time period, and where the ratio adjusted only assumes 1000 stocks trade on a day to day basis
2008-12-04 19:56:04 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and the average stock probably more
2008-12-04 19:56:29 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: its already a very brutal decline
2008-12-04 19:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, the destruction has been very wide spread
2008-12-04 19:57:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes and twice as fast as 2000 to 2002
2008-12-04 19:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the A/D line as it is...it's probably going to get worse
2008-12-04 19:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of my personal problems is with how many are embracing the current sequence of events as being that of a bottom
2008-12-04 19:57:44 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: well maybe there is another choice
2008-12-04 19:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that ALL of the bad news is out
2008-12-04 19:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go on...
2008-12-04 19:58:13 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Given the steep ascent of the A/D line, is it fair to assume that the trajectory down will continue to be steep?
2008-12-04 19:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be reasonable, but keep in mind that as the A/D line declined in 1998-2000, prices actually moved higher on the major indices
2008-12-04 19:58:29 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: maybe the place where u have neutral on the ad chart will be enough
2008-12-04 19:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem with that is that when the FED went neutral, the previous time period in which rates were rising did not produce the desired effect of monetary contraction - we accelerated
2008-12-04 19:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: away from what many would consider a normal outcome
2008-12-04 20:00:04 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and maybe that's the bubble that has been retraced fully
2008-12-04 20:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the cost of money increases, it makes it harder to have extra for investment, right?
2008-12-04 20:00:38 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes
2008-12-04 20:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct...but ONLY if the FED moves rates up going into this same neutral policy
2008-12-04 20:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise, there's no starting point to where things got out of hand
2008-12-04 20:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...in retrospect, it was this same inconsistency in logic that presented us with the wrong outlook in the area of Elliott analysis
2008-12-04 20:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it wasn't so much more money moving in...it was artificial money (hedging and such) that created this "wealth effect" of energy
2008-12-04 20:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would fully explain why all of the asset classes were able to move higher in tandem during this same time period
2008-12-04 20:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can we only blame this on risk taking?
2008-12-04 20:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: partially
2008-12-04 20:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we also had global market conditions present that may be what pushed this inconsistency over the edge
2008-12-04 20:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a mighty big lesson being learned here
2008-12-04 20:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I, for one, will try not to be fooled again in this fundamental concept
2008-12-04 20:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's not to say that I won't exploit it like we did over the last several years, but until we find some stability here, and enough of it where those in Washington won't keep coming up with new methods to regrasp the situation, we're probably going to get a continuation of this current wealth deflation
2008-12-04 20:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also challenged its previous top yesterday and failed to generate follow through today
2008-12-04 20:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components, and we're still under the zero line on both
2008-12-04 20:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this kind of configuration is NOT the way up trends begin
2008-12-04 20:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these are usually only pauses in the larger trend
2008-12-04 20:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO did move to higher highs yesterday, and it's 10% component was able to peak its head above the zero line as well
2008-12-04 20:09:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Could we call the NASDAQ double top in MCO an exhaustion pattern? Down from here?
2008-12-04 20:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we can say about the MCO so far is that we are highly "overbought"
2008-12-04 20:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so much so that it's very difficult to build on this same extreme in the pattern
2008-12-04 20:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need to rest
2008-12-04 20:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls, it's now a time of show me
2008-12-04 20:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this area, with the next technical expectation of a move to or towards the zero line, it will be VERY important that the zero line holds in this expectation
2008-12-04 20:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every move back below the zero line right now, with the MCSUM as deeply "oversold" as it is, will tend to cause violent shakeouts as opinion shifts, on balance, from bull to bear
2008-12-04 20:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: staying above the zero line is important to help move the Summation Index higher in its attempt to move to balance between buyers and sellers (the zero line)
2008-12-04 20:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as we have discussed many times before
2008-12-04 20:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having the MCO stay above the zero line for any length of time from this juncture, doesn't at all mean that price will continue to rise during this "construction period" because of the deeply "oversold" readings on the MCSUM itself
2008-12-04 20:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...think of any price pattern
2008-12-04 20:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of a declining price trend
2008-12-04 20:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and apply a 19 day and 39 day EMA to this same price structure
2008-12-04 20:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if a price structure has a relief rally, this doesn't necessary mean that it's going to cut through these same moving averages at a brisk pace
2008-12-04 20:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will take time to build this strength over time, and what usually happens is that each hurdle is attempted, once crossed, we usually see prices consolidate in and around these same EMA's
2008-12-04 20:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing here
2008-12-04 20:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...there will be times in which money will move back up to its shorter term EMA, and fail to cross it...retrace...regroup...and then try again
2008-12-04 20:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like the last two weeks
2008-12-04 20:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we run out of this same energy
2008-12-04 20:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say...as a car would if you only have a 1/8 of a tank available to make a trip to point B
2008-12-04 20:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once the fuel runs out, you either have to walk to find more gas, or roll backwards (on a hill) to find this same fuel
2008-12-04 20:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's important to get more participants in agreement on a new direction
2008-12-04 20:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case...enough to fill the fuel take to 1/4 full
2008-12-04 20:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then to 1/2...3/4
2008-12-04 20:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then enough where you can get to your destination without being hindered in the process
2008-12-04 20:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we have a long way to go
2008-12-04 20:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time to repair the vehicle so that it can "go the distance" without puttering along in the process
2008-12-04 20:20:32 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib what do you think of the failure of the bears to take the market down once the late nov mco divergent bottoms got taken out
2008-12-04 20:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be another way to say that the vehicle is in better shape than before
2008-12-04 20:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's probably going to take several bottoming structures to hold support now
2008-12-04 20:21:12 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: that was my thinking
2008-12-04 20:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can't expect the market to just shake it off when it was "T-Boned"
2008-12-04 20:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not realistic
2008-12-04 20:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we have been stressing the importance of the A/D pattern over the last several months prior to October's breakdown
2008-12-04 20:22:35 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it took a great deal of energy to break these div bottoms
2008-12-04 20:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: things were holding together in spite of everything
2008-12-04 20:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it was just too much to handle...and the back was broken
2008-12-04 20:22:56 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but there was no follow through to the downside
2008-12-04 20:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is good...and bad
2008-12-04 20:23:36 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: instead we got some thrust move up
2008-12-04 20:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if there's not enough support to hold the other pieces together, you're going to get parts falling off...but the rest will tend to hold on
2008-12-04 20:23:52 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: there is a message here
2008-12-04 20:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these thrust moves are bogus right now
2008-12-04 20:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are not that of what one would call "breadth thrusts"
2008-12-04 20:24:33 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: well we had money come into the market
2008-12-04 20:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth thrusts only occur during times in which the A/D line is stable enough to hold the thrust
2008-12-04 20:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like a launch pad for the space shuttle
2008-12-04 20:25:12 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and the bears failed to capitalize on a great opportunity
2008-12-04 20:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was it money coming in, or rehashed money being rotated
2008-12-04 20:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the bears have this market fully under their control
2008-12-04 20:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there are always limits
2008-12-04 20:26:02 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: they are still in control granted
2008-12-04 20:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was when we broke below the support pattern of the summer when things really came unglued, wasn't it?
2008-12-04 20:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: EMA's can only move away from each other only so far before they must close this same gap
2008-12-04 20:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the energy is overwhelming, not only will the EMA's move further away from each other, but they will also get "stretched out of shape", and their elasticity to hold a pattern within check has disappeared
2008-12-04 20:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: THIS is major technical damage
2008-12-04 20:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like stretching out a timing belt
2008-12-04 20:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it has to be replaced buy something new, or the vehicle won't "go" even if it has the fuel to do so
2008-12-04 20:28:39 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: time will repair anything broken
2008-12-04 20:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed...and that's been the point all along
2008-12-04 20:29:19 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but i think we differ on how deep we need to correct
2008-12-04 20:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can bet that with the high lack of confidence, it's going to take a while for the public to come around again
2008-12-04 20:30:02 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: the public is scared
2008-12-04 20:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way...it took the better part of 4 years before those who got killed with the "new economy" stocks to start making their way back into the prior bull trend
2008-12-04 20:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and by then...it was too late
2008-12-04 20:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the unwilling buyers capped the rally
2008-12-04 20:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember what happened after the Yen carry trade correction of February 2007?
2008-12-04 20:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then the market moved to new highs?
2008-12-04 20:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every single staunch bear, from Eliades, to Russell, to Prechter, all them started to call buy signals from April to June of 2007
2008-12-04 20:32:15 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i remember that
2008-12-04 20:32:27 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it was uh oh moment for me
2008-12-04 20:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...we should look for the same thing here
2008-12-04 20:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though I can't really pinpoint those who were bullish all the way up...except for Don
2008-12-04 20:33:18 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i don't think there is a single bull left alive except for da cheif
2008-12-04 20:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but have they told their followers to sell?
2008-12-04 20:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or are they saying...it's too late to sell...wait?
2008-12-04 20:34:00 [Message] locus -> Main Room: heard precther is looking for a rally
2008-12-04 20:34:06 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: da cheif was on a sell
2008-12-04 20:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I shared Bob's count recently
2008-12-04 20:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like I've been saying for a week now
2008-12-04 20:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by tomorrow we'll hopefully know a lot more about things
2008-12-04 20:34:44 [Message] locus -> Main Room: oh yeah that's where i saw it lol
2008-12-04 20:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it doesn't look very good here
2008-12-04 20:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have "overbought" short term readings
2008-12-04 20:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you had a CVI sell signal yesterday
2008-12-04 20:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott wise...it sure looks like a corrective structure from Monday's lows
2008-12-04 20:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: forget Elliott, just look at the intraday data
2008-12-04 20:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we keep finding resistance at the daily 20 day EMA
2008-12-04 20:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow and SPX tested and fail there today
2008-12-04 20:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NYA still has air between its price level and the 20 day EMA
2008-12-04 20:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the broad market is lagging
2008-12-04 20:36:35 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: gotta take the 20 day ema if it means business
2008-12-04 20:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were the bottom in which many think it is...where's the beef?
2008-12-04 20:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's no beef because...we're STILL too weak
2008-12-04 20:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have no structure
2008-12-04 20:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we only have "hope"
2008-12-04 20:37:28 [Message] locus -> Main Room: think many see mco as bullish thrust / divergence
2008-12-04 20:37:45 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i don't think its fair to say we only have hope at this stage
2008-12-04 20:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in that context, what is the A/D line doing with this thrust?
2008-12-04 20:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything...it's maybe...and I mean maybe...setting a bottom for a trading range
2008-12-04 20:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-12-04 20:38:26 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: there are divergent internal and momentum structures from which the market can stage a rally
2008-12-04 20:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market can stage a rally without divergence or momentum
2008-12-04 20:38:56 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: whether this is THE bottom or just a potential st bottom remains to be seen
2008-12-04 20:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of a paddle ball
2008-12-04 20:39:06 [Message] locus -> Main Room: rf i think with as stressed out as bb and paulson is quite a tell about "hope"
2008-12-04 20:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you stop hitting the ball, but does the ball just stop?
2008-12-04 20:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is thick with hope
2008-12-04 20:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from fundamental, to technical, to political...
2008-12-04 20:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the folks in DC don't have a handle on this at all
2008-12-04 20:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if they did, they wouldn't be having press conferences every other day and giving us updates
2008-12-04 20:40:26 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes everyday something new to solve our problems
2008-12-04 20:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and THAT'S a real problem
2008-12-04 20:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they have no idea what to do
2008-12-04 20:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what have they thrown at this...8 TRILLION dollars?
2008-12-04 20:41:16 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes no coherent strategy to give "confidence" so all we have is "hope"
2008-12-04 20:41:19 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it's funny the market tanks with each press conference they hold
2008-12-04 20:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they've been focusing on the wrong things?
2008-12-04 20:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's my take...and until we see some confidence, we're in a whole lot of trouble
2008-12-04 20:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why this is nothing like 2002/2003 or anything else...
2008-12-04 20:42:00 [Message] locus -> Main Room: what can they do?
2008-12-04 20:42:01 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: duly noted fib
2008-12-04 20:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe 1973
2008-12-04 20:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they should do what they should of done in the beginning....nothing
2008-12-04 20:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's only a problem if you're being told there is one
2008-12-04 20:42:37 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yep that's what i meant
2008-12-04 20:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's been taken away now
2008-12-04 20:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the economy is now being run by those who have never had a private sector job
2008-12-04 20:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...run a business
2008-12-04 20:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...it was not my intention to go in this direction
2008-12-04 20:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the complacency here is frustrating
2008-12-04 20:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: final note...name me one time in where the government corrected something, or changed something, that was for the good of the public and didn't turn out as a disaster?
2008-12-04 20:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh
2008-12-04 20:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I really hope the market is wrong here
2008-12-04 20:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would make me wrong
2008-12-04 20:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would make us all wrong
2008-12-04 20:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: higher highs on the SPX breadth MCO
2008-12-04 20:46:10 [Message] locus -> Main Room: doubt it dave which is pretty scary
2008-12-04 20:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking constructive on the 10% component with a breakout above the zero line and snapback
2008-12-04 20:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then...money isn't buying the market...only the safe issues
2008-12-04 20:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as many have to be invested
2008-12-04 20:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the question is...can a group of only 500 stocks lead the market out of the garbage - or - is the broad market going to take it on the chin, while the sector leaders keep things from being noticed??
2008-12-04 20:48:24 [Message] locus -> Main Room: Dave would we be approaching gap resistance on spx mcsum
2008-12-04 20:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gap resistance points (for those who don't know) are where we see the most extreme points in the MCO
2008-12-04 20:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM, and taking our line of vision up to the SPX breadth MCO
2008-12-04 20:49:25 [Message] locus -> Main Room: so is it more like above -1000
2008-12-04 20:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem that gap resistance here still remains above us
2008-12-04 20:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...just between -1000 and -850
2008-12-04 20:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we move above these capitulation points, the tide has NOT turned
2008-12-04 20:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these areas will provide strong initial resistance to the MCSUM pattern
2008-12-04 20:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if they are violated, this then suggests that we have a lot of backers on the rally to where a longer term trend can develop
2008-12-04 20:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where a larger risk exposure can be taken
2008-12-04 20:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: before that happens...it's best to use simple oscillator techniques for buy and sell signals
2008-12-04 20:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...we have the MCO "overbought"
2008-12-04 20:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on many price chart patterns, many of the 13 day RSI's are right at their 50% level (or zero line)
2008-12-04 20:52:48 [Message] locus -> Main Room: divergence on the macd histo has been golden
2008-12-04 20:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it has
2008-12-04 20:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as you don't try to squeeze every last ounce of a move...you just continue to accumulate wealth
2008-12-04 20:53:33 [Message] locus -> Main Room: ? Dave
2008-12-04 20:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-12-04 20:54:17 [Message] locus -> Main Room: The lack of mcsum divergence on the last lows vs mco diverg
2008-12-04 20:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the NYSE?
2008-12-04 20:54:49 [Message] locus -> Main Room: on spx
2008-12-04 20:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..go ahead (I probably know your question)
2008-12-04 20:55:27 [Message] locus -> Main Room: who controls price action
2008-12-04 20:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the zero line is your demarcation point in that area
2008-12-04 20:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but to answer your question
2008-12-04 20:55:55 [Message] locus -> Main Room: or better is the mco st vs sum it
2008-12-04 20:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having a lower low in the MCSUM, with the MCO providing divergence, only suggests that we're more than likely going to get MCSUM divergence later on
2008-12-04 20:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that the pattern is being....ummm...forced...in the opposite direction
2008-12-04 20:56:58 [Message] locus -> Main Room: ah thanks Dave
2008-12-04 20:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as if a large thumb was being put on the scale of the natural tendency to bottom
2008-12-04 20:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to remember that there are still money managers out there that NEED to be invested
2008-12-04 20:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some have lost their jobs in the last couple of months
2008-12-04 20:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some have changed their strategies
2008-12-04 20:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but all need to be invested because that's a funds make up...what you pay for them to do
2008-12-04 20:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the cream stocks are getting more attention than the broader market
2008-12-04 20:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is also why (using the internals we follow here) that these same buyers are shying away from interest rate sensitive issues and moving more towards common stocks
2008-12-04 20:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the risk here is with the Mid caps
2008-12-04 20:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the small caps are not seeing any love whatsoever
2008-12-04 20:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the secondaries are hit and miss
2008-12-04 20:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: make no mistake, the internals are telling a story here
2008-12-04 21:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we're working with bear claws now and not with bull horns
2008-12-04 21:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you really have to forget much of what we learned in the last bull sequence...things are going to be applied differently
2008-12-04 21:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO, for example
2008-12-04 21:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many up trends did we see initiated without some sort of structure to the MCO pattern prior to its move above the zero line?
2008-12-04 21:01:40 [Message] locus -> Main Room: Yes relearning is always tough
2008-12-04 21:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answer...going from memory...was none
2008-12-04 21:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...we saw many quick and sharp moves in the MCO
2008-12-04 21:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but each one of them did eventually see price trace into a bottom of some degree...build structure either with divergence or complexity, and then once above the zero line...up we went to higher highs
2008-12-04 21:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry for running long...let's finish things up
2008-12-04 21:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of gap resistance note...check out the MID breadth MCSUM
2008-12-04 21:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we are now approaching this key area of resistance just at a time in where we're "overbought"
2008-12-04 21:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have nice gap expansion here...which is a nice plus
2008-12-04 21:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it will be interesting to see if we can continue moving at such a brisk pace or start to slow down the ascent (lower MCO readings) as we come closer to this same gap resistance area
2008-12-04 21:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do fail to move higher and begin to decline
2008-12-04 21:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is enough space between the current readings and the last bottom where a lot of air can be taken out the price pattern, but this could also result in a stronger divergent structure
2008-12-04 21:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (just in time to finish out Minor wave 3 down??)
2008-12-04 21:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: selfishly...I hope the count I've proposed works out
2008-12-04 21:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of the MID and the cream MCSUM's...this would give all of us clarity of a nice reversal in the trend
2008-12-04 21:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a ways to go on the SML breadth MCSUM, but trying to relieve the downside pressure
2008-12-04 21:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like the composite NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCSUM, we remain below the top of two weeks ago
2008-12-04 21:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is the broader market
2008-12-04 21:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the broader market always takes a front row seat as far as market character is concerned
2008-12-04 21:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we saw with the MCSUM's that have already taken out this same high
2008-12-04 21:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it should leave no doubt - both in breadth and scope...the post expansions should be wide
2008-12-04 21:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the question is...can we see this happen when we're already "overbought"?
2008-12-04 21:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything can happen...especially with the destructive force of the October decline
2008-12-04 21:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what are the odds?
2008-12-04 21:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I would rather follow than lead into the trade right now
2008-12-04 21:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not all that clear here
2008-12-04 21:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...it would be far healthier if we had some additional back and fill here
2008-12-04 21:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the difference being in breadth plurality
2008-12-04 21:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OH...and speaking of that
2008-12-04 21:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone should know that the NYSE A/D data is polluted
2008-12-04 21:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: be very careful on where you get you data from
2008-12-04 21:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: last Monday, the NYSE decided to introduce some 800 AMEX issues in their breadth data without telling anyone about it
2008-12-04 21:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, the Yahoo data is currently corrupted
2008-12-04 21:16:56 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: what about SC?
2008-12-04 21:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the free data at the Wall Street Journal, and Market Volume, looks to be been filtered
2008-12-04 21:17:08 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: Carl?
2008-12-04 21:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SC? I advised Chip of it today
2008-12-04 21:17:15 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: eSignal?
2008-12-04 21:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but they get their data from Thomson...so it's up to them
2008-12-04 21:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: e-signal is having a problem too
2008-12-04 21:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me give you an example from today
2008-12-04 21:17:41 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: where does Carl get his data?
2008-12-04 21:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Yahoo - 1059/2776
2008-12-04 21:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: WSJ - 829/2334
2008-12-04 21:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a difference of 672 issues extra issues between the two
2008-12-04 21:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Carl uses SC for the source data
2008-12-04 21:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so until this is corrected, or some time has passed to absorb this new pool of products, be careful
2008-12-04 21:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also probably mean that the AMEX data is corrupted since 800 issues no longer exist
2008-12-04 21:20:03 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thanks for pointing this out fib
2008-12-04 21:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are people working on this behind the scenes right now
2008-12-04 21:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not so much that NYSE introduced this to the statistics but it's the way they did it - without warning - that's bothersome
2008-12-04 21:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so either take it out...or put them all in...don't half ass it
2008-12-04 21:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Randy brought this to my attention, but he's assured me that the data I get for the weekend updates will be filtered
2008-12-04 21:21:33 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thanks to randy as well
2008-12-04 21:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely...he's the "go to" guy here
2008-12-04 21:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...I would strongly suggest that if you need free access to this data to use WSJ...or at least have 2 or 3 comparisons available to you and average it out
2008-12-04 21:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the link - http://tinyurl.com/69efgr
2008-12-04 21:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as if trying to trade the market wasn't tough enough...
2008-12-04 21:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are neutral - one side is about to take control
2008-12-04 21:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "overbought"
2008-12-04 21:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are pretty much neutral
2008-12-04 21:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: definitely compressing here
2008-12-04 21:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.28
2008-12-04 21:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .90 - neutral
2008-12-04 21:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.15
2008-12-04 21:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .89 - neutral
2008-12-04 21:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.75
2008-12-04 21:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .88 - bearish side of neutral
2008-12-04 21:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Monster Index down another 7 points last month
2008-12-04 21:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whisper number for the jobs data is -425,000 to -475,000
2008-12-04 21:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: expectation is -320,000
2008-12-04 21:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's the revisions that count here
2008-12-04 21:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....
2008-12-04 21:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're set up again for a fall
2008-12-04 21:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: put insurance would not be a bad idea here for those who have long positions
2008-12-04 21:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: market continues heavy...but is starting to unwind a bit
2008-12-04 21:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as long as the MCSUM are as deeply "oversold" as they are
2008-12-04 21:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rallies will be short lived...and declines with be sharp and fast
2008-12-04 21:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-12-04 21:29:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Next year start, assuming we start?
2008-12-04 21:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's leave that alone for now...I will make a post when I decide
2008-12-04 21:29:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: k
2008-12-04 21:29:46 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Don't be a stranger
2008-12-04 21:29:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks for another great year!!
2008-12-04 21:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...I'll be around
2008-12-04 21:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I hope these sessions made you money, and without your participation, these sessions would mean nothing...so thank you all
2008-12-04 21:30:21 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Thanks for the great education, Dave. Wish you and Rainy the best.
2008-12-04 21:30:25 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Yes!!! Thanks!!!
2008-12-04 21:30:30 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: BET IT, and THX so much!
2008-12-04 21:30:32 [Message] slatedrake -> Main Room: Thanks for everything Fib, much appreciated. Happy Holidays All!
2008-12-04 21:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as with you geo...and everyone
2008-12-04 21:30:43 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: all the best Fib... you are 'DA man -
2008-12-04 21:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK, everyone have a great holiday season
2008-12-04 21:30:47 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: Thanks Dave
2008-12-04 21:30:48 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thanks fib you are the best
2008-12-04 21:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a prosperous new year
2008-12-04 21:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-12-04 21:31:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Happy Holidays to all.....
2008-12-04 21:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we meet again...trade safe
2008-12-04 21:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night!!




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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