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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,532
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-03 15:59:50 fib1618: good day
2015-12-03 15:59:54 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-03 16:00:44 thespookyone: Fine, thanks,You?
2015-12-03 16:00:50 rite01: Good
2015-12-03 16:02:32 fib1618: doing fine
2015-12-03 16:02:43 fib1618: just when you think you have things figured out...huh?
2015-12-03 16:03:14 rite01: Well you did for me last week... Dave, thanks for cash call last week.
2015-12-03 16:03:15 fib1618: this whole thing has the stench of a bear market
2015-12-03 16:03:36 fib1618: well...I'm only the mouthpiece
2015-12-03 16:03:39 fib1618: but you're welcome
2015-12-03 16:04:02 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we dig into today's data??
2015-12-03 16:05:03 fib1618: I will check the BETS...brb
2015-12-03 16:06:12 fib1618: you're gonna laugh
2015-12-03 16:06:21 fib1618: let's see
2015-12-03 16:06:28 fib1618: we were back to a -40 on Friday
2015-12-03 16:06:34 fib1618: -25 on Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:06:38 fib1618: today...?
2015-12-03 16:06:40 fib1618: -60
2015-12-03 16:07:15 rite01: big moves in a short time
2015-12-03 16:07:26 fib1618: and we now have failures on many of the cumulative charts
2015-12-03 16:08:05 fib1618: well remember that those that were no longer in a "Bearish Configuration" only moved to "Corrective" one
2015-12-03 16:08:35 fib1618: but the NYAD and the NAUD lines are no longer in "Bullish Configurations"
2015-12-03 16:08:44 fib1618: so that's 10 points there
2015-12-03 16:09:03 fib1618: like we know from past experience
2015-12-03 16:09:13 fib1618: bear market rallies tend to be sharp and short
2015-12-03 16:09:23 fib1618: up until Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:09:32 fib1618: the volume side of the fence was still negative
2015-12-03 16:09:51 fib1618: and we only snapped back to the volume MCO's on the NYSE CO and Composite
2015-12-03 16:09:57 fib1618: no follow through on Wednesday
2015-12-03 16:10:08 fib1618: but today was looked exhausted
2015-12-03 16:10:20 fib1618: with the futures moving higher pre market
2015-12-03 16:11:10 fib1618: trying to hold on with ECB's dropping rates yet again
2015-12-03 16:11:16 fib1618: and then
2015-12-03 16:11:41 fib1618: we had Yellen speaking loud and clear that unless the job's number on Friday is "weaker than expected"
2015-12-03 16:11:55 fib1618: that we're up (at least) a 1/4% in mid December
2015-12-03 16:12:07 fib1618: hard to trade this kind of environment
2015-12-03 16:12:21 fib1618: more so on a fundamental basis
2015-12-03 16:12:27 fib1618: which is it?
2015-12-03 16:12:30 fib1618: are we expanding
2015-12-03 16:12:40 fib1618: or are we contracting on a global basis
2015-12-03 16:13:01 fib1618: so....it looks like we should have better clarity tomorrow
2015-12-03 16:13:08 fib1618: let me check the consensus
2015-12-03 16:13:15 fib1618: and then we'll get going
2015-12-03 16:13:50 fib1618: 190,000
2015-12-03 16:14:14 fib1618: range of 160 to 219
2015-12-03 16:14:27 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-12-03 16:14:53 fib1618: oh boy
2015-12-03 16:15:10 fib1618: after moving to a +38 on Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:15:20 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved sharply lower
2015-12-03 16:15:41 fib1618: and finds itself back below the zero line with a -37 reading
2015-12-03 16:15:48 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 16:16:12 fib1618: and we see that we found resistance at just below the +200 level
2015-12-03 16:16:15 fib1618: now...
2015-12-03 16:17:02 fib1618: let's take a moment to discuss the infamous "Summation Failure" pattern for a moment
2015-12-03 16:17:11 fib1618: generally speaking
2015-12-03 16:17:44 fib1618: the set up for this pattern is for a decline in the MCSUM from a level of +500 or better
2015-12-03 16:17:52 fib1618: finding zero line support
2015-12-03 16:18:06 fib1618: and then failing to move back above the +250 level
2015-12-03 16:18:13 fib1618: once this occurs
2015-12-03 16:18:32 fib1618: this is a sign of buyer exhaustion of the current trend
2015-12-03 16:18:49 fib1618: and if the MCSUM continues to move down and through the zero line
2015-12-03 16:18:59 fib1618: this sets up a "crash like" event in the market
2015-12-03 16:19:38 fib1618: as those who continued to try to pick tops only to find prices moving still higher give up
2015-12-03 16:20:02 fib1618: and this is the time in which we see all of the willing and UNWILLING buyers in the market
2015-12-03 16:20:18 fib1618: and once these group of traders are no longer providing underlying support
2015-12-03 16:20:39 fib1618: we see a reversal of imbalances on an intermediate term basis that can last for several months
2015-12-03 16:20:49 fib1618: so looking at the NYSE CO data
2015-12-03 16:21:15 fib1618: we see that it only topped out about the +375 level in early November
2015-12-03 16:21:35 fib1618: so it doesn't actually meet the classic guideline of a Summation Failure pattern
2015-12-03 16:21:36 fib1618: however
2015-12-03 16:21:53 fib1618: we are only dealing with those issues that would be considered "common stocks"
2015-12-03 16:21:59 fib1618: so let's look at the NYSE Composite
2015-12-03 16:22:21 fib1618: and THERE we did top out at the +500 level
2015-12-03 16:22:33 fib1618: and this was our concern during the month of November
2015-12-03 16:22:51 fib1618: looking further
2015-12-03 16:23:07 fib1618: and we see that we topped out at the +300 level on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 16:23:18 fib1618: so it moved a bit further than we usually see
2015-12-03 16:23:21 fib1618: and to be candid
2015-12-03 16:23:50 fib1618: it was this extra punch that took place on Tuesday that had us re-examine our bearish bias for the last several weeks
2015-12-03 16:23:56 fib1618: for now
2015-12-03 16:24:42 fib1618: it's something that does need out attention due to the fact that the large caps had their profound issues of confirming what the Small and Mid Caps were suggesting over the lasts couple of weeks
2015-12-03 16:25:01 fib1618: and where any further weakness from this point
2015-12-03 16:25:41 fib1618: could provide quite a slippery slope for stocks overall as the market attempts to reset itself in an effort to have more technical uniformity to work from
2015-12-03 16:26:07 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO components
2015-12-03 16:26:25 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend moved down and through its zero line today
2015-12-03 16:26:45 fib1618: but the 5% settled at just below its zero line
2015-12-03 16:26:49 fib1618: so technically
2015-12-03 16:27:02 fib1618: we should see a bounce on Friday for the 5% Trend
2015-12-03 16:27:25 fib1618: and this would then allow the 10% to provide the obligation of a technical snapback to its zero line
2015-12-03 16:27:37 fib1618: so...if we do rally on Friday
2015-12-03 16:27:49 fib1618: what happens then won't be as important
2015-12-03 16:27:54 fib1618: as what happens early next week
2015-12-03 16:28:34 fib1618: as to whether the buyers are able to grab a ledge and climb their way back to solid ground
2015-12-03 16:28:46 fib1618: or will they lose their hold and fall off the cliff?
2015-12-03 16:29:14 fib1618: sure looks like a Fishhook now on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM, doesn't it?
2015-12-03 16:29:34 fib1618: so for the near term
2015-12-03 16:29:50 fib1618: a snapback to the MCO zero line would be fine and dandy
2015-12-03 16:29:58 fib1618: before we see another sell off next week
2015-12-03 16:30:36 fib1618: and it will be whether or not the MCO diverges with its mid November lows that will be of paramount importance
2015-12-03 16:30:43 fib1618: as a failure to do so
2015-12-03 16:31:04 fib1618: and a test of the October price lows will be on the front burner
2015-12-03 16:31:20 fib1618: looking at the price structure of the NYA daily pattern
2015-12-03 16:32:24 fib1618: and the Elliottician in us can plainly see a corrective sequence from late August to the beginning of November
2015-12-03 16:32:27 fib1618: from there, 1 down
2015-12-03 16:32:30 fib1618: 2 up
2015-12-03 16:32:38 fib1618: and you know what's next
2015-12-03 16:33:17 fib1618: sure has a bad feel to it in any event
2015-12-03 16:33:45 fib1618: and, yes, we'll know if it's a 3 down
2015-12-03 16:33:53 fib1618: because we will break to lower lows in all of the MCO's
2015-12-03 16:34:30 fib1618: we just didn't have the energy to take out the early November highs in the MCO
2015-12-03 16:34:35 fib1618: and that's a real problem
2015-12-03 16:34:45 fib1618: let's see how the NASDAQ looks
2015-12-03 16:34:51 tuna: the MCO lows of Aug or Nov
2015-12-03 16:35:10 fib1618: at this point
2015-12-03 16:35:28 fib1618: if it's part of a larger corrective sequence from the summer
2015-12-03 16:35:32 fib1618: only the November lows
2015-12-03 16:35:37 tuna: OK
2015-12-03 16:35:37 fib1618: if the August ones are taken out
2015-12-03 16:35:42 fib1618: full blown bear market
2015-12-03 16:35:55 fib1618: of which will likely last for a good chunk of 2016
2015-12-03 16:36:10 fib1618: now..the kicker here
2015-12-03 16:36:15 fib1618: is monetary policy
2015-12-03 16:36:25 fib1618: with the cost of money still historically low
2015-12-03 16:36:54 fib1618: this will tend to keep prices from trending solidly to the downside
2015-12-03 16:37:01 fib1618: like we saw in 2000 and 2008
2015-12-03 16:37:08 fib1618: we could then be in a larger trading range because of this
2015-12-03 16:37:49 fib1618: of which the summer lows of 2013 would provide support
2015-12-03 16:38:01 fib1618: but at this point
2015-12-03 16:38:11 fib1618: it's really a "do or die" moment for the buyers
2015-12-03 16:38:32 fib1618: as you have a top beneath a top in the NYA
2015-12-03 16:39:03 fib1618: and the NYA also never made it back above the 200 day EMA on this November advance
2015-12-03 16:39:23 fib1618: telling us that the broad market was not all showing any kind of underlying strength for the advance
2015-12-03 16:39:52 fib1618: but this more of a sneaking up process we saw in late November
2015-12-03 16:39:56 fib1618: well...
2015-12-03 16:40:14 fib1618: we did touch on a couple of times on how it looked like it was being "manufactured"....that it looked "peculiar"
2015-12-03 16:40:26 fib1618: and then the small caps kicked in
2015-12-03 16:40:38 fib1618: but we never had the volume plurality to keep it going
2015-12-03 16:40:40 fib1618: until Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:40:47 fib1618: and only on Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:40:58 fib1618: did we poke our heads above the zero line on the NYSE volume MCO's
2015-12-03 16:41:25 fib1618: sort of like a drowning animal trying to keep its head above water
2015-12-03 16:41:31 fib1618: and back below it went
2015-12-03 16:41:40 fib1618: (assuming here...let me check)
2015-12-03 16:42:08 fib1618: and yes, it did
2015-12-03 16:42:12 fib1618: rally failure
2015-12-03 16:42:19 fib1618: this is not good
2015-12-03 16:42:23 fib1618: oh man
2015-12-03 16:42:25 fib1618: one sec
2015-12-03 16:42:33 fib1618: let me take a further look at the volume data
2015-12-03 16:43:24 fib1618: well...volume says that we should have a bounce on Friday
2015-12-03 16:43:44 fib1618: but then...it's going to take a good old "heave ho" by the bulls to save this
2015-12-03 16:43:54 fib1618: let's go back to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-12-03 16:44:21 fib1618: after peaking out at a +43
2015-12-03 16:44:37 fib1618: we also see that it moved sharply lower over the last couple of days
2015-12-03 16:44:57 fib1618: settling just below the important -25 level (-28)
2015-12-03 16:45:06 fib1618: so a technical bounce is to be expected
2015-12-03 16:45:33 fib1618: the NASDAQ components are both back below zero
2015-12-03 16:45:41 fib1618: so a technical sell is given there
2015-12-03 16:45:47 fib1618: also of particular note
2015-12-03 16:46:08 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM was not able to get above the late June highs
2015-12-03 16:46:30 fib1618: and putting ruler to monitor
2015-12-03 16:46:41 fib1618: if the zero line doesn't hold (of which I don't expect it to)
2015-12-03 16:47:08 fib1618: then the rising bottoms line connecting the October/November lows crosses at about -100
2015-12-03 16:47:35 fib1618: given that we've seen this MCSUM rising for the better part of the past 3 months
2015-12-03 16:48:05 fib1618: the reasonable expectation is for some topping action and a reversal back below the MCSUM zero line to provide longer term balance
2015-12-03 16:48:08 fib1618: though the problem is
2015-12-03 16:48:15 fib1618: this IS taking place at the MCSUM zero line
2015-12-03 16:48:43 fib1618: where both sides are evened up after the sharp "crash like" decline we had in late August
2015-12-03 16:49:13 fib1618: and a move all the way down to the 4650 level would then be possible
2015-12-03 16:49:33 fib1618: on a brighter note
2015-12-03 16:49:42 fib1618: the internals here don't indicate a double top formation
2015-12-03 16:50:13 fib1618: but that doesn't make much of a difference if the double top is just an exhaustion sequence in disguise
2015-12-03 16:50:33 fib1618: as both ideas would provide the same forecasted result
2015-12-03 16:50:56 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-12-03 16:51:13 fib1618: and here we peaked out with a +30 reading
2015-12-03 16:51:21 fib1618: before moving sharply back below the zero line
2015-12-03 16:51:38 fib1618: now the problem here is that of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 16:52:05 fib1618: where it was pretty much moving sideways with congested postings for much of the November advance
2015-12-03 16:52:17 fib1618: and we have now broken below this area of sideways action today
2015-12-03 16:52:28 fib1618: this is a bearish technical event
2015-12-03 16:52:45 fib1618: as it indicates that a new selling wave is now under way
2015-12-03 16:52:59 fib1618: and given that the buyers showed little strength previous to this
2015-12-03 16:53:17 fib1618: the sellers are likely to push things their way with a lot of emphasis
2015-12-03 16:53:28 fib1618: and a zero line challenge would be likely because of this
2015-12-03 16:54:00 fib1618: also on the table
2015-12-03 16:54:23 fib1618: is that we have bearish divergence now on Wednesday's hard intraday reversal bar
2015-12-03 16:54:33 fib1618: and this further indicates that the bulls have no control here
2015-12-03 16:55:03 fib1618: and the bear market default will likely be emphasized because of this
2015-12-03 16:55:25 fib1618: but like the past charts we've reviewed today
2015-12-03 16:55:37 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO settled on the -50 level today
2015-12-03 16:55:44 fib1618: so a near term technical bounce is likely
2015-12-03 16:56:06 fib1618: with next week being the time in which statements will be made
2015-12-03 16:56:37 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO also topped out with a +29 on Tuesday before moving sharply lower
2015-12-03 16:56:59 fib1618: coming in today with a very weak reading of -56
2015-12-03 16:57:09 fib1618: this is not a good thing
2015-12-03 16:57:27 fib1618: all that struggle to remain above the zero line in November
2015-12-03 16:57:39 fib1618: and now we see who has the upper hand here
2015-12-03 16:57:57 fib1618: with the buyers looking exhausted by the process
2015-12-03 16:58:18 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO continued to keep us honest on Tuesday
2015-12-03 16:58:29 fib1618: as it only barely made it back above its zero line
2015-12-03 16:58:34 fib1618: along with the OEX volume MCO
2015-12-03 16:58:41 fib1618: as we noted then
2015-12-03 16:59:03 fib1618: it was going to be very important for this group of issues to show continued strength on Wednesday
2015-12-03 16:59:09 fib1618: an nowhere was it found
2015-12-03 16:59:36 fib1618: good news is that the OEX breadth MCO is now highly "oversold" with a -80 reading
2015-12-03 17:00:05 fib1618: but you can see the technical damage this has caused by taking a cursory view of the OEX breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:00:27 fib1618: and the large separation of today's individual posting showing that a lot of money left this basket of issues today
2015-12-03 17:00:59 fib1618: and this was after it broke below the +250 level on Wednesday
2015-12-03 17:01:19 fib1618: doesn't seem likely that the zero line is going to provide support at this point
2015-12-03 17:01:42 fib1618: with the more important trendline support at around the -150 level
2015-12-03 17:01:58 fib1618: solid sell there
2015-12-03 17:02:11 fib1618: and whoops
2015-12-03 17:02:35 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO also moved sharply lower as well after sticking a head above the zero line on Tuesday
2015-12-03 17:02:48 fib1618: and it came in today with a -82 reading
2015-12-03 17:02:56 fib1618: but like the OEX data
2015-12-03 17:03:10 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM also moved down and through another 250 incremental support area today...the +500 level
2015-12-03 17:03:39 fib1618: so we have two areas of natural support that was broken simultaneously with respect to the OEX and Dow
2015-12-03 17:03:49 fib1618: and indicating that the path of least resistance is now lower
2015-12-03 17:04:17 fib1618: any break of the November MCO lows
2015-12-03 17:04:35 fib1618: would give us a downside price target of 16,250 on the Dow
2015-12-03 17:04:58 fib1618: and in the event of a break of the August lows
2015-12-03 17:05:06 fib1618: let me see if I can get a target...one sec
2015-12-03 17:05:37 fib1618: looks like 14,750
2015-12-03 17:05:41 fib1618: ummm...
2015-12-03 17:05:52 fib1618: wasn't that level the area of the old all time highs?
2015-12-03 17:06:07 rite01: sounds about right
2015-12-03 17:06:17 fib1618: 14,198
2015-12-03 17:06:32 fib1618: so this could be part of a longer term technical snapback
2015-12-03 17:06:40 rite01: one question: 16,250? bear with me
2015-12-03 17:06:44 fib1618: sure
2015-12-03 17:07:02 fib1618: if you look at the price chart
2015-12-03 17:07:15 fib1618: we really have no pattern support until the price consolidation of September
2015-12-03 17:07:26 fib1618: the mid point of which is the 16,250 level
2015-12-03 17:07:44 rite01: right
2015-12-03 17:07:46 fib1618: remember that price pattern targets can only be attained if there is enough energy, and the momentum that it creates, to get there
2015-12-03 17:08:36 fib1618: so if the November MCO lows are broken
2015-12-03 17:08:45 fib1618: the next level of "external" chart support is the consolidation
2015-12-03 17:08:50 fib1618: if the August MCO lows are broken
2015-12-03 17:08:55 fib1618: so will the August price lows
2015-12-03 17:09:06 fib1618: and then the next target of consolidation would be the next target
2015-12-03 17:09:14 fib1618: keep it simple
2015-12-03 17:09:23 fib1618: the problem with many analysts
2015-12-03 17:09:29 fib1618: is that they will give a price target
2015-12-03 17:09:43 fib1618: but they don't have the underlying strength or weakness to get to that objective since we're, ultimately, dealing with supply and demand factors
2015-12-03 17:10:22 fib1618: if there is more demand than supply, then prices are likely to move toward the next area of previous price resistance
2015-12-03 17:10:44 fib1618: if there is more supply then demand, then prices are likely to move toward the next area of previous price support
2015-12-03 17:10:58 fib1618: where, in theory, there is an agreement on valuations
2015-12-03 17:11:27 fib1618: this is the market dynamic that makes prices move to one level or the other
2015-12-03 17:11:46 fib1618: of which these same valuations on based on basic fundamental factors
2015-12-03 17:11:56 fib1618: so, when we use technical analysis to ascertain direction
2015-12-03 17:12:25 fib1618: what we're actually doing is cheating those who use only fundamental analysis as their sole area of information from which to forecast a price target
2015-12-03 17:12:52 fib1618: and we're doing so far before these same targets are actually attained
2015-12-03 17:13:01 fib1618: that's our advantage
2015-12-03 17:13:22 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2015-12-03 17:13:22 rite01: thanks I'm starting to see it
2015-12-03 17:14:06 fib1618: and our cautionary stance of not seeing a higher high in this indicator on Tuesday was our "inside information" that something might be wrong
2015-12-03 17:14:40 fib1618: as it has been this basket of issues, along with the small caps, that were leading the way higher for much of the 2nd half of November
2015-12-03 17:14:55 fib1618: then, all of a sudden, the large caps played catch up
2015-12-03 17:15:18 fib1618: and though we could allow some hesitation to higher highs on Tuesday
2015-12-03 17:15:28 fib1618: it was also clear that unless we did see higher highs in the MID and SML by today
2015-12-03 17:15:44 fib1618: that we could had been seeing some sort of exhaustion in play
2015-12-03 17:15:55 fib1618: so, in hind sight, this was correct
2015-12-03 17:16:16 fib1618: looking at the MID MCO 10% component
2015-12-03 17:16:24 fib1618: and it's now moved back to its zero line
2015-12-03 17:16:38 fib1618: so a technical bounce there wouldn't be surprising
2015-12-03 17:16:56 fib1618: another thing that we have to acknowledge here
2015-12-03 17:17:33 fib1618: is that it's quite rare to see any breadth MCSUM to have more than 3 legs higher from a "oversold" bottom
2015-12-03 17:17:41 fib1618: so on many of the charts tonight
2015-12-03 17:17:56 fib1618: with the MCO's moving back below their zero lines
2015-12-03 17:18:16 fib1618: it's not likely that we're going to see another sequence to a higher high anytime soon
2015-12-03 17:18:26 fib1618: anything is possible, of course
2015-12-03 17:18:39 fib1618: but on dynamic level
2015-12-03 17:19:06 fib1618: it would take quite a bit of thrust to do so after we have already been trending higher for 3 months
2015-12-03 17:19:54 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2015-12-03 17:20:08 fib1618: and here we have also moved sharply lower to back below the zero line
2015-12-03 17:20:29 fib1618: but the components remain on the plus side of their zero line
2015-12-03 17:20:42 fib1618: of special note though
2015-12-03 17:20:51 fib1618: is where we just topped out on the SML breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:21:10 fib1618: yep...just slightly above the +500 level at +517
2015-12-03 17:21:38 fib1618: so any downside follow through below this same +500 level would likely put a cap on things for a while
2015-12-03 17:21:55 fib1618: given we have another 3 leg sequence in the MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:22:37 fib1618: and, of course, as we pointed to on Tuesday
2015-12-03 17:23:04 fib1618: any top here would be right at the horizontal resistance level we saw back in spring of this year
2015-12-03 17:23:47 fib1618: and even after making a higher high on Tuesday
2015-12-03 17:24:10 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line on Wednesday
2015-12-03 17:24:30 fib1618: and with a crossover sell signal on the components
2015-12-03 17:25:10 fib1618: and though the guidelines given earlier for a MCSUM failure are not exact here
2015-12-03 17:25:32 fib1618: the structure of the TM breadth MCSUM does have a rather ominous look about it
2015-12-03 17:25:50 fib1618: where a zero line break would not only cause a shift from bullish to bearish control
2015-12-03 17:26:09 fib1618: but would also break the support the TM saw with the November lows
2015-12-03 17:26:14 fib1618: so...
2015-12-03 17:26:27 fib1618: what looks to be a classic market head fake
2015-12-03 17:26:47 fib1618: is now showing more a bearish bias then we've seen in the last 2 weeks
2015-12-03 17:27:15 fib1618: tops beneath tops in many of the price pattern structures of the major indices
2015-12-03 17:27:32 fib1618: along with some inconsistent short term trend money flow readings
2015-12-03 17:28:14 fib1618: pretty much instructs us that some sort of further backing and filling is going to be necessary in order to provide a better base from which prices can hopefully rally from
2015-12-03 17:28:40 fib1618: the weakness in the BETS is also a telling sign that we're not out of the woods either
2015-12-03 17:31:50 fib1618: let's move quickly to the sectors
2015-12-03 17:32:13 fib1618: looks like a double top here with the XLY
2015-12-03 17:33:03 fib1618: downside target on a break of $78 is $74
2015-12-03 17:33:38 fib1618: looks like a rally failure on the XLP breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:34:11 fib1618: as the XLP breadth MCO wasn't able to make it above the +50 level
2015-12-03 17:34:29 fib1618: technical breakdown now in the XLE
2015-12-03 17:35:02 fib1618: and we can see that the selling never stopped with this basket of issues for a month now as the XLE breadth MCO wasn't able to get back above its zero line
2015-12-03 17:35:59 fib1618: noting again the 3 pattern sequence in the XLE breadth MCSUM before it topped at +250
2015-12-03 17:36:08 fib1618: this likely a bear sequence now
2015-12-03 17:36:31 fib1618: with bear divergence in the XLE breadth MCO
2015-12-03 17:36:39 fib1618: all of this we've already talked about before
2015-12-03 17:36:46 fib1618: checking a downside target
2015-12-03 17:37:09 fib1618: let's call it $60.25
2015-12-03 17:37:22 fib1618: with a break below the November MCO lows...
2015-12-03 17:38:03 fib1618: looks like $57
2015-12-03 17:38:11 fib1618: and a break of the August MCO lows...
2015-12-03 17:38:24 fib1618: $46
2015-12-03 17:38:45 fib1618: that sure doesn't sound like economic expansion, does it?
2015-12-03 17:38:56 fib1618: unless...we're going to switch to some other fuel resource
2015-12-03 17:39:01 fib1618: which isn't likely
2015-12-03 17:39:34 fib1618: technical breakdown all around for the XLF
2015-12-03 17:39:45 fib1618: which probably means no rate hike
2015-12-03 17:39:47 fib1618: I guess
2015-12-03 17:39:54 fib1618: I don't know anymore
2015-12-03 17:40:08 fib1618: could be a simple case of business sucking
2015-12-03 17:41:05 fib1618: the XLV data is just now starting to break down
2015-12-03 17:41:29 fib1618: note that the XLV breadth MCSUM wasn't able to move back above the +750 level
2015-12-03 17:42:22 fib1618: with a break below the November XLV breadth MCO lows projecting a downside price target of $65
2015-12-03 17:42:59 fib1618: bad day today for the XLI
2015-12-03 17:43:31 fib1618: as we now have bearish divergence with the XLI breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:43:57 fib1618: a trigger there would be a break of the mid November low point
2015-12-03 17:44:24 fib1618: look at how resistance held at the +250 level on the XLB breadth MCSUM
2015-12-03 17:45:02 fib1618: same with the XLK breadth MCSUM at the +750 level
2015-12-03 17:45:36 fib1618: looks like bear divergence as well with the XLK breadth MCO
2015-12-03 17:46:09 fib1618: and the XLU still remains vulnerable to further declines
2015-12-03 17:46:24 fib1618: as the XLU breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through the +500 level
2015-12-03 17:46:48 fib1618: with a new crossover sell on the components
2015-12-03 17:46:51 fib1618: so...
2015-12-03 17:46:59 fib1618: not much to cheer about overall
2015-12-03 17:47:10 fib1618: seems that the market is leaning heavily to the downside
2015-12-03 17:47:40 thespookyone: we trade both ways, that's OK
2015-12-03 17:47:52 fib1618: yep
2015-12-03 17:48:11 fib1618: just don't like being faked out at the end of what we knew was a problem
2015-12-03 17:48:20 fib1618: anyway
2015-12-03 17:48:23 fib1618: no harm, no foul
2015-12-03 17:48:35 fib1618: CVI's are ow climactic
2015-12-03 17:48:42 thespookyone: we don't take entry on the first shot down anyway..
2015-12-03 17:48:48 fib1618: so let's look for a near term price reversal in the next couple of sessions
2015-12-03 17:48:54 fib1618: well...
2015-12-03 17:49:08 fib1618: it's been a tough call here since mid November
2015-12-03 17:49:15 thespookyone: it has
2015-12-03 17:49:21 fib1618: then we got a bullish push on Tuesday
2015-12-03 17:49:26 fib1618: just needed follow through
2015-12-03 17:49:35 fib1618: and the rug was pulled out
2015-12-03 17:49:50 fib1618: ISEE was in the mid 60's yesterday
2015-12-03 17:49:56 fib1618: expected a bounce
2015-12-03 17:50:12 fib1618: which would continued the sequence of alternating up and down days of the last 2 weeks
2015-12-03 17:50:17 thespookyone: I saw that, and the OEX P/C ratio had dropped hard too
2015-12-03 17:50:34 fib1618: yea...someone knows something
2015-12-03 17:51:08 fib1618: how many times did we comment that something was off over the last couple of weeks?
2015-12-03 17:51:16 thespookyone: lots
2015-12-03 17:51:22 fib1618: yep
2015-12-03 17:51:38 fib1618: OK...again...at least we just didn't jump into the pool
2015-12-03 17:51:49 fib1618: and then found it to be much shallower than we expected
2015-12-03 17:51:55 fib1618: believe me
2015-12-03 17:52:22 fib1618: it's been a hard call with the European A/D lines moving higher since the massacre in France
2015-12-03 17:52:50 fib1618: and it wasn't until just in the last couple of days where the NYSE began to perk up
2015-12-03 17:52:56 thespookyone: I still can't get over the big blocks of calls I saw bought on bonds, it's hard for me to see the rate hike, but all they need to do is stay on the fence to fire down for a bit
2015-12-03 17:53:08 fib1618: the market giveth and then taketh just as quickly
2015-12-03 17:53:30 fib1618: even the interest rate sensitive issues were doing fine
2015-12-03 17:53:44 fib1618: well...hopefully all of this will be sorted after tomorrow
2015-12-03 17:53:57 fib1618: hard to trade when it's been as murky as its been
2015-12-03 17:54:03 thespookyone: I bet the jobs number is weak, just a guess
2015-12-03 17:54:09 fib1618: it's got to be based on what other business owners are telling me
2015-12-03 17:54:16 fib1618: I couldn't believe ADP
2015-12-03 17:54:23 thespookyone: me either
2015-12-03 17:54:29 fib1618: ridiculous
2015-12-03 17:54:34 fib1618: I'm telling you
2015-12-03 17:54:39 fib1618: the months were having here in sales
2015-12-03 17:54:46 fib1618: are the worst since the early 90's
2015-12-03 17:54:52 thespookyone: the fed must have real numbers somewhere, no?
2015-12-03 17:55:10 fib1618: well...they know and are privy to numbers that they keep
2015-12-03 17:55:11 thespookyone: and if they do, how can they raise?
2015-12-03 17:55:18 fib1618: because if they don't
2015-12-03 17:55:26 fib1618: then Janet has no credibility
2015-12-03 17:55:32 fib1618: and the market will not like that
2015-12-03 17:55:41 thespookyone: does she have any now?
2015-12-03 17:55:52 fib1618: my lips are sealed
2015-12-03 17:55:55 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-03 17:55:56 thespookyone: LOL
2015-12-03 17:56:08 fib1618: all I know is what we see
2015-12-03 17:56:21 fib1618: and money flow is being very frugal right now
2015-12-03 17:56:31 fib1618: back to the STVO's
2015-12-03 17:56:37 fib1618: which are now neutral
2015-12-03 17:56:53 fib1618: or just south of the zero line
2015-12-03 17:57:17 fib1618: and a terrible "failure to achieve" in the VTO's
2015-12-03 17:57:35 fib1618: and if any indicator is looking like its needs a flush...this is the one
2015-12-03 17:57:59 fib1618: you got to be kidding me!
2015-12-03 17:58:04 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .78?!?
2015-12-03 17:58:14 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.21
2015-12-03 17:58:17 thespookyone: yep
2015-12-03 17:58:22 fib1618: traders were buying the dip here
2015-12-03 17:58:28 fib1618: on the come
2015-12-03 17:58:39 fib1618: that tomorrow was going to be good enough to move higher(?)
2015-12-03 17:59:02 fib1618: picking bottoms when the market is down over 1% is not exactly something bullish
2015-12-03 17:59:21 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.21
2015-12-03 17:59:31 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2015-12-03 17:59:34 fib1618: so backing off a bit from being nearly "overbought"
2015-12-03 17:59:46 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.03
2015-12-03 17:59:49 fib1618: (wow)
2015-12-03 17:59:58 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2015-12-03 18:00:02 fib1618: so....
2015-12-03 18:00:48 fib1618: there doesn't seem to be enough traders convinced that the last two days was nothing more than squaring positions going into the most important report we've had in a long while
2015-12-03 18:01:14 fib1618: hard to a make a call here for Friday
2015-12-03 18:01:17 fib1618: but technically
2015-12-03 18:01:20 fib1618: we should see a bounce
2015-12-03 18:01:26 fib1618: which also means
2015-12-03 18:01:32 fib1618: if we don't see a bounce...watch out
2015-12-03 18:02:19 thespookyone: I'd kill for a strong bounce to fade..
2015-12-03 18:02:27 fib1618: I guess we'll see how it goes....but a higher than expected number might be met with cheers, but then I would be cautious of it lasting through the day
2015-12-03 18:02:41 fib1618: tell you one thing
2015-12-03 18:02:57 fib1618: I know many on the floor of the exchange continue to bet on no rate increase
2015-12-03 18:03:16 thespookyone: I don't see a raise either
2015-12-03 18:03:20 fib1618: we'll just have to see how it goes
2015-12-03 18:03:26 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-03 18:03:31 thespookyone: thx
2015-12-03 18:04:09 fib1618: the reason why I keep working with the no rate increase is that the REITS and Preferred issues continue to see bullish money flow
2015-12-03 18:04:22 fib1618: and to a lesser degree, the Bond CEF's
2015-12-03 18:04:37 thespookyone: the bond call buys I saw were big money huge...
2015-12-03 18:04:55 thespookyone: they like to make money...
2015-12-03 18:05:26 fib1618: yep
2015-12-03 18:05:35 fib1618: REM right now is yielding 14.83%
2015-12-03 18:05:42 thespookyone: WOW
2015-12-03 18:05:46 fib1618: P/E of 10
2015-12-03 18:06:23 fib1618: price pattern though is bearish
2015-12-03 18:06:29 fib1618: which is keeping me on the sidelines there
2015-12-03 18:06:32 thespookyone: my dad and I used to look for PE's of ten or under to buy
2015-12-03 18:06:40 thespookyone: back in the day
2015-12-03 18:06:49 fib1618: I was just going to say the same thing
2015-12-03 18:06:54 fib1618: "back in the day"
2015-12-03 18:07:00 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-12-03 18:07:10 fib1618: I'm going to go home and relax
2015-12-03 18:07:11 thespookyone: have a great weekend
2015-12-03 18:07:18 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-12-03 18:07:24 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Tuesday
2015-12-03 18:07:25 fib1618: good night


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