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Posts: 4,899
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-29 15:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-29 15:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-29 16:00:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fine, and you?
2011-12-29 16:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very well
2011-12-29 16:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about to take a 3 day vacation!
2011-12-29 16:01:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet...
2011-12-29 16:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: know I'll be working anyway...
2011-12-29 16:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have to update all of my websites with the new copyright years and such
2011-12-29 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides all of the usual market stuff
2011-12-29 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...maybe...on Monday I can "veg"
2011-12-29 16:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...
2011-12-29 16:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I found a really neat app
2011-12-29 16:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a reader
2011-12-29 16:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call Flipboard
2011-12-29 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very cool
2011-12-29 16:02:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: aapl app?
2011-12-29 16:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who have can check it out
2011-12-29 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe it's standard on the iPad
2011-12-29 16:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can get it for your iPhone
2011-12-29 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes reading a whole lot easier
2011-12-29 16:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the functionality is quite innovated
2011-12-29 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-29 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a heads up
2011-12-29 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be mailing out new passwords on Monday
2011-12-29 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so look for them in your mailbox
2011-12-29 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see how things worked out over the last couple of days
2011-12-29 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I remember correctly
2011-12-29 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were looking for some sort of snapback to the MCO zero line by today
2011-12-29 16:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market decided to make it a one day affair
2011-12-29 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's rally, one would think that we got our obligatory bounce off this same zero line test
2011-12-29 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look
2011-12-29 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we did
2011-12-29 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had the CO NYSE breadth components bounce off their zero line yesterday as well
2011-12-29 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the ISEE number from yesterday didn't convince you that the there was too much bearishness with yesterday's decline
2011-12-29 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals also suggested a bounce higher today
2011-12-29 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart
2011-12-29 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're just under the same levels we were on Tuesday
2011-12-29 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which fits in with our outlook this week of being choppy...with a bearish bias
2011-12-29 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (if only it worked out this nicely every time )
2011-12-29 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now in the meat of the early December consolidation resistance area
2011-12-29 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is less than 70 data points away from a zero line test
2011-12-29 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite data
2011-12-29 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we had a bounce higher from yesterdays attempt to snapback to or towards the MCO zero line
2011-12-29 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in both cases
2011-12-29 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls to now move into the clear, the objective becomes quite simple
2011-12-29 16:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to have a good beginning of the year
2011-12-29 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would now have to see higher highs in the MCO above Tuesday's spike
2011-12-29 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be enough energy to drive the respected NYSE breadth MCSUM's above their early December resistance levels
2011-12-29 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the CO MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above its zero line
2011-12-29 16:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2011-12-29 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its a matter now of knocking things back down to a more neutral level (the MCO zero line)
2011-12-29 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will stall the upward progress of the MCSUM to where we won't know what to expect until the beginning of the year
2011-12-29 16:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that much of players who drive EU strategy also come back early next week
2011-12-29 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first expectation for tomorrow is for the market internals to settle close to neutral overall
2011-12-29 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would provide the platform to where one side or the other will then be able to gain control
2011-12-29 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under the outline just given
2011-12-29 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes a rather simple situation for the technical trader
2011-12-29 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs in the MCO will lead to new highs in the MCSUM and prices will then be allowed to follow
2011-12-29 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a failure here to move to new highs
2011-12-29 16:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the bulls will have to circle the wagons in hopes of holding trendline support
2011-12-29 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that breaks
2011-12-29 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so will the market
2011-12-29 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..the exciting thing here is that we are likely a matter of days away from some sort of resolution to the trading range that we've "enjoyed" over the last several months
2011-12-29 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...
2011-12-29 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have the higher percentage probability of success
2011-12-29 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did have a lot of inconsistencies on Tuesday, didn't we?
2011-12-29 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's start with the NASDAQ
2011-12-29 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2011-12-29 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still show both of the NASDAQ breadth MCO components still below their zero line
2011-12-29 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest corrective activity
2011-12-29 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the bulls can provide some additional fire power here
2011-12-29 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of a rally failure here are higher than that of the NYSE group of stocks
2011-12-29 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the's a wash
2011-12-29 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we usually see a continuation of choppy, sideways behavior
2011-12-29 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX, however, and here the NDX breadth MCO bounced higher today
2011-12-29 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled just below its Tuesday's highs
2011-12-29 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2011-12-29 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks as though that the 10% Trend did, by the smallest of margins, move to new highs today
2011-12-29 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both of the components are above their zero line
2011-12-29 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although a weaker exchange overall
2011-12-29 16:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 stocks of this same marketplace do look like they are starting to receive some love
2011-12-29 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could spread to other issues
2011-12-29 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slight advantage back with the bulls
2011-12-29 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after suggesting a down close on Wednesday with the mid range close on Tuesday
2011-12-29 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO did bounce higher today after moving towards its zero line
2011-12-29 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of opportunity for the bears to paw away at the bulls, and not being able to bring more neutrality to the pattern (an actual zero line test) does suggest that there are more than enough buyers here to keep prices from building a trending downward price structure
2011-12-29 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the SPX components remain on a buy signal
2011-12-29 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we talked about on Tuesday
2011-12-29 16:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was how much of the bearishness that we had going into last week had all but dissipated
2011-12-29 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we got the ISEE numbers yesterday
2011-12-29 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again the put buyers were out in force
2011-12-29 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market can not change this reflex action by the bears to come charging into buying puts on just one day shake outs
2011-12-29 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this will serve as our support with our "wall of worry" of which advancing price structures use to provide structure
2011-12-29 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we didn't retrace as much as one would like to see on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-12-29 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that of our moving into an important area of resistance (the early December congestion period on the MCSUM)
2011-12-29 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: adds a bit more probability that we're likely to break out here to the upside
2011-12-29 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move that probability to 60%
2011-12-29 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next to the OEX
2011-12-29 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there we had a nice zero line test in the OEX breadth MCO yesterday
2011-12-29 16:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components moving only half the distance to this same line of neutrality
2011-12-29 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is another sign of internal strength as it pertains to money moving into the market
2011-12-29 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the +324 reading on the MCSUM will tend to keep any surprise broadsides by the bears to a minimum
2011-12-29 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of thing we've seen in the last couple of days
2011-12-29 16:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...when we get readings above the +250 level on the MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you combine that with "oversold" readings on the Open 10
2011-12-29 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes very difficult for the bears to mount up any kind of sustained attack of more than a day
2011-12-29 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually comes with "overbought" extremes
2011-12-29 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at yesterday
2011-12-29 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE TRIN was again over 5.00
2011-12-29 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking this into further consideration then
2011-12-29 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say that the market actually "corrected on the fly" yesterday
2011-12-29 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest good follow through near term
2011-12-29 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the fears that we did talk about was whether or not the sellers would just remain silent for the rest of this week
2011-12-29 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's nice, I guess, when the internals are further away from important resistance points
2011-12-29 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not when we're knocking on the door of these same areas of resistance
2011-12-29 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the Dow data
2011-12-29 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with one more day needed before the bulls will move into the clear on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good action still with the MID breadth MCO and its components
2011-12-29 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they continue to perform positively
2011-12-29 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the MID breadth MCSUM is back above its zero line
2011-12-29 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears really have to take a stand right here, and right now, or they're going to lose complete control
2011-12-29 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice bounce today on the SML breadth MCO
2011-12-29 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that this bounce higher was able to allow the SML breadth MCSUM to clear its early December resistance zone today
2011-12-29 16:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so higher highs above Tuesday's spike will pretty much put the bears into hibernation
2011-12-29 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce higher with the TM breadth MCO and its components
2011-12-29 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM breadth MCSUM is now only 2 trading days away from possibly moving, not only above pattern resistance, but also the zero line as well
2011-12-29 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-29 16:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for both sides
2011-12-29 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting mighty close to a "put up or shut up" situation
2011-12-29 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance seems to be with the bulls now
2011-12-29 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all they need to do to make this a foregone conclusion is to show higher pattern highs in the breadth MCO's
2011-12-29 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's and see if they echo this sentiment
2011-12-29 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is showing a weaker bounce relative to its breadth cousin
2011-12-29 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's push did move the CO NYSE volume MCSUM back above its zero line
2011-12-29 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and within striking distance of moving above its MCSUM pattern highs of early December
2011-12-29 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite volume MCO is pretty much echoing breadth right now
2011-12-29 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how both breadth and volume plurality are literally tracking each other right now
2011-12-29 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we know from past experience
2011-12-29 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always better when the internals all work together to achieve a specific goal
2011-12-29 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call the NYSE in sync for now
2011-12-29 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a lot of weakness with the NASDAQ volume data
2011-12-29 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here the trend of volume is leading breadth to the upside on a short term (MCO) basis
2011-12-29 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: therefore
2011-12-29 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to drive the ball towards the goal
2011-12-29 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and push back the bearish defense
2011-12-29 16:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-12-29 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that defense seems to be badly bruised and battered
2011-12-29 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see if they have anything down deep to overcome their disadvantage here
2011-12-29 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much a carbon copy of the NDX volume MCO and MCSUM with that of the breadth data
2011-12-29 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though down volume was heavier yesterday
2011-12-29 16:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO and MCSUM are pretty much holding together here very nicely
2011-12-29 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would compliment the strength shown on the breadth side
2011-12-29 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good bounce as well with the OEX volume MCO and its components
2011-12-29 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're only a day away from challenging the OEX volume MCSUM pattern resistance area of early December
2011-12-29 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can clear this
2011-12-29 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then call a bottom in the MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will then allow prices to move more freely to the upside
2011-12-29 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money continues to support the move by having the MCO's move to higher highs
2011-12-29 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then a trending sequence to the upside would then be in place for prices to follow suit
2011-12-29 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not forget the most important thing in all of this analysis
2011-12-29 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get higher highs on the MCSUM's
2011-12-29 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then cancel all downside price objectives given with the late November decline
2011-12-29 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new upside objectives will again be given
2011-12-29 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that happens
2011-12-29 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually a 2-3 week period of the market moving in this new direction before we're likely to see a turn around
2011-12-29 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears look to be having their backs against the proverbial wall
2011-12-29 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM has now cleared the important +250 level
2011-12-29 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still trails the height of the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a bit of an inconsistency there
2011-12-29 16:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news is that both are trending in the same direction
2011-12-29 16:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's all that's needed for prices to also trend...or in this case....breakout of consolidation patterns that might be present
2011-12-29 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like now
2011-12-29 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an OK bounce higher with the MID volume MCO
2011-12-29 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we need more conviction from the bulls to power our way above the early December highs on the MID volume MCSUM
2011-12-29 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume data still looks very bullish here
2011-12-29 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML volume MCSUM now above its zero line today
2011-12-29 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-12-29 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leading its breadth cousin in this same upward direction
2011-12-29 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...these whispers can tell us more than any analyst can impose in the media
2011-12-29 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these kind of structures SHOW US that money is continuing to find value in equities
2011-12-29 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike what many continue to claim as being a problem
2011-12-29 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the small caps would not be leading higher if liquidity levels were not well above what would be deemed as normal
2011-12-29 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we've seen over the last 6 months
2011-12-29 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with liquidity never being a problem here
2011-12-29 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the US markets have been able to withstand some serious fundamental news and still show buoyancy in their price pattern structures
2011-12-29 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, above all else, should be respected for what it may imply going forward
2011-12-29 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take away the last of any unknown factors
2011-12-29 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: present clarity
2011-12-29 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market can really run here after forming a basing structure for the better part of a year
2011-12-29 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this turns out to be the case
2011-12-29 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upside price objectives will certainly come very, very close to the all time highs of 2007 and 2008
2011-12-29 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: platforms like this are powerful structures in an uptrend
2011-12-29 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-29 17:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some may wonder...couldn't this be a topping pattern?
2011-12-29 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2011-12-29 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals do allow for this
2011-12-29 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but speaking from personal experience
2011-12-29 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very rare when topping patterns last more than 6 months
2011-12-29 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even rarer when the very thing that allows prices to rise, liquidity, remains at levels in which the small caps can show greater strength that that of either the mid caps or large caps
2011-12-29 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless something extraordinary takes place really, really soon
2011-12-29 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-12-29 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this juncture
2011-12-29 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is going to take an all out collapse in the EU if the bears are [u]likely[/u] to wrestle back control
2011-12-29 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is keeping us honest
2011-12-29 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things sort out next week
2011-12-29 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe...just maybe
2011-12-29 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll get a tip off tomorrow
2011-12-29 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce higher today with the TM volume MCO
2011-12-29 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you look at the current pattern of the TM volume MCSUM
2011-12-29 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the bulls really need to see here is much better upside post expansion here
2011-12-29 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this regard
2011-12-29 17:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they really are running out of time to do so
2011-12-29 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering in the back of our heads
2011-12-29 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this positive nature in the markets only started a week ago Tuesday
2011-12-29 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all during a choppy holiday season
2011-12-29 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many MCSUM's at or near their zero lines
2011-12-29 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important for the bulls now to leave now doubt as their turnaround
2011-12-29 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MCSUM wise
2011-12-29 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the decline that began in November
2011-12-29 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had our likely time period of a turnaround sometime at the end of this month
2011-12-29 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're here now
2011-12-29 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we move down INTO this kind of bottom
2011-12-29 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but other times we move UP and OUT of this same bottom
2011-12-29 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the current price pattern configurations
2011-12-29 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many symmetrical triangles
2011-12-29 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our being at or just above the apex point
2011-12-29 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is a bottom as forecasted by the MCSUM
2011-12-29 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be that of the later than the formal kind
2011-12-29 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are
2011-12-29 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both sides looking to take control
2011-12-29 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the bulls having a slight advantage in their favor with all things being equal
2011-12-29 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after forecasting a probable top on Tuesday
2011-12-29 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the CVI's bounced higher today from just below their zero lines
2011-12-29 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing there to help near term
2011-12-29 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's, however, still remain "overbought" overall
2011-12-29 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on a strictly technical basis, this would allow some weakness tomorrow to possibly set up next week as a point from where one side can take the ball and run with it
2011-12-29 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still not much help with the VTO's
2011-12-29 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they move pretty much sideways
2011-12-29 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-12-29 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .33
2011-12-29 17:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering again
2011-12-29 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh man
2011-12-29 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2011-12-29 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when you thought you had it all worked out
2011-12-29 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .49
2011-12-29 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2011-12-29 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now we're neutral there
2011-12-29 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .45
2011-12-29 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2011-12-29 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and neutral there
2011-12-29 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-12-29 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about we have a match up day on Friday
2011-12-29 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals showing weakness so that we can have the MCO's move back toward their zero lines
2011-12-29 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the table will be set for Tuesday
2011-12-29 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when something is likely to come to a head
2011-12-29 17:14:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ok
2011-12-29 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check what we need for on the MCO tomorrow for a zero line snapback
2011-12-29 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2011-12-29 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of gasoline here has gone up .10 a gallon in the last 2 days
2011-12-29 17:15:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 24 cents here, 1 day
2011-12-29 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after coming down almost by .02 increments for much of the month of December
2011-12-29 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .24?
2011-12-29 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-12-29 17:16:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, my wife was mad
2011-12-29 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are you at on 87
2011-12-29 17:16:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 2.49
2011-12-29 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: LOL
2011-12-29 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you deserve it
2011-12-29 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-12-29 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my gas station across the street from us
2011-12-29 17:16:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I filled up at 2.25 yesterday-gut feel
2011-12-29 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is an ARCO - about as inexpensive as you get here on the west coast
2011-12-29 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were having a gas war
2011-12-29 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the LOWEST it got was....
2011-12-29 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3.29
2011-12-29 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to love our "designer gas"
2011-12-29 17:17:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat:   WOW  However-you folks are saving the planet for us
2011-12-29 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-12-29 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea
2011-12-29 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not getting any rain, our we?
2011-12-29 17:18:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: now, just get China to come along.... LOL
2011-12-29 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole country seems to not be getting anything so far
2011-12-29 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for the Texas and New Mexico which can use it
2011-12-29 17:19:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we have a little snow
2011-12-29 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...for tomorrow
2011-12-29 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need 1634 net declining issues for a zero line reading on the NYSE RA breadth MCO
2011-12-29 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for no change in the MCO
2011-12-29 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +356
2011-12-29 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice again how it takes much more selling to change the direction of the current trend?
2011-12-29 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if net advances on the NYAD are higher than 1000 issues
2011-12-29 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a breakout to the upside
2011-12-29 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be sure
2011-12-29 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say +1500
2011-12-29 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should do it
2011-12-29 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get it...I would move 20-30% long
2011-12-29 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then wait for the beginning of next week
2011-12-29 17:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're weaker...stand aside and have a great weekend!
2011-12-29 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look around a bit more since we have a little more time
2011-12-29 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equity p/c ratio is neutral
2011-12-29 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CBOE p/c is bearish
2011-12-29 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OEX is bullish
2011-12-29 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a wash there
2011-12-29 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Eliades' New TRIN is highly "overbought"
2011-12-29 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of folks betting on an upside breakout here
2011-12-29 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unweighted indices are pretty much in line with the weighted
2011-12-29 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing there
2011-12-29 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is dollar weighted volume
2011-12-29 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this has the potential of being a hum dinger of a breakout here
2011-12-29 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BPI charts are mixed
2011-12-29 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Precious Metals are scrapping the floor now
2011-12-29 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be an area to look at on the long side
2011-12-29 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know better with the breadth data this weekend
2011-12-29 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the defensive sector BPI's are fully "overbought" now
2011-12-29 17:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to tell you
2011-12-29 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears come in strong here
2011-12-29 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...we're really in the meat of the structure here
2011-12-29 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very compressed
2011-12-29 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and could go either way
2011-12-29 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2011-12-29 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have the higher probability of success
2011-12-29 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really up to the bears to come in here and hit 'em hard
2011-12-29 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick look at the cumulative charts
2011-12-29 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TICK is moving higher again
2011-12-29 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll probably have a BETS reading of neutral again
2011-12-29 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we picked up another 5 points...maybe a -10
2011-12-29 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the full stochastic on the NYMO and NAMO are "overbought" here
2011-12-29 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that really helps with a bearish least near term...maybe into next week
2011-12-29 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make or break for both sides
2011-12-29 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-29 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone seeing any kind of leading indication as yet?
2011-12-29 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for Friday...we have our blueprint
2011-12-29 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just watch how breadth is doing
2011-12-29 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also need to be careful as many will probably be taking off after Europe closes at lunch time eastern
2011-12-29 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to take this time to thank all of you for your continued business and support of these chat sessions
2011-12-29 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I do hope that you find them rewarding when combined with your own work
2011-12-29 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and may your best trade in 2011 be your worse one in 2012
2011-12-29 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm also working on adding any couple of breadth charts in January
2011-12-29 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so look for those
2011-12-29 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one being that of "specialty"...issues that can't be classified as common, Bond, or preferred stocks
2011-12-29 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other...will be that of an international
2011-12-29 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but won't say as yet before I'm assured of a constant flow of data
2011-12-29 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-29 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-29 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish you all and your families a wonderful New Years
2011-12-29 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may everyone be healthy and prosperous
2011-12-29 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again next Tuesday
2011-12-29 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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