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Posts: 4,881
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-29 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-29 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-29 16:00:11 [Message] manuj -> Chat: good day
2010-12-29 16:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't have a very constructive close, did we?
2010-12-29 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-29 16:06:10 [Message] gman -> Chat: cheif always says bull markets are boring, but this takes the cake
2010-12-29 16:06:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lots of data in the morning
2010-12-29 16:06:12 [Message] orange -> Chat: I was curious if there is a way to obtain historic data for the MCSUM and MCO charts, without generating them your self?
2010-12-29 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: @gman - yea...they usually are because no one is really interested in them until the top
2010-12-29 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: @orange - you can try going to Tom McClellan's web site
2010-12-29 16:07:07 [Message] gman -> Chat: which is fine by me
2010-12-29 16:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe he sells the data
2010-12-29 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: @spooky - and the data didn't/doesn't matter...we already knew what was going to happen yesterday
2010-12-29 16:07:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2010-12-29 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check Tom's site
2010-12-29 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he only goes back to 9/10
2010-12-29 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what were you needing?
2010-12-29 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: specifically
2010-12-29 16:09:54 [Message] orange -> Chat: nyse and nasdaq MCSUM and MCO data for past 10 years
2010-12-29 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than getting the data yourself
2010-12-29 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2010-12-29 16:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's all you want
2010-12-29 16:10:14 [Message] orange -> Chat: i like to play with the data, to get a better understanding of the nuances
2010-12-29 16:10:18 [Message] orange -> Chat: well, more eventually =)
2010-12-29 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have DP up?
2010-12-29 16:10:23 [Message] orange -> Chat: yes
2010-12-29 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...this is where you $20 a month is going to pay off
2010-12-29 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-29 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2010-12-29 16:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would use the ratio adjusted version of the MCO and MCSUM when you're dealing with data longer than 1 year
2010-12-29 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice, eh?
2010-12-29 16:12:44 [Message] orange -> Chat: hmm, is there a way to download the data?
2010-12-29 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will have to print the charts
2010-12-29 16:13:03 [Message] orange -> Chat: ahh, ok
2010-12-29 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you should be able to work them...what exercise are you working with?
2010-12-29 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: project...etc
2010-12-29 16:14:26 [Message] orange -> Chat: i wanted to play with the data visually to get a better feel for the indicators
2010-12-29 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for that you would have to take a number 2 pencil to graph paper
2010-12-29 16:14:46 [Message] orange -> Chat: looking at occasions where they are trending up down, above/below zero
2010-12-29 16:15:07 [Message] orange -> Chat: ahhh, in that case ill find a way to compute the data into an application =)
2010-12-29 16:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you wouldn't get a "feel" for the indicators
2010-12-29 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to learn the nuances of any analytical tool is to work with them without the benefit of a piece of software
2010-12-29 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: luckily for me, I had no choice in the matter
2010-12-29 16:16:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: graph paper built me as a trader
2010-12-29 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how I can sit here, without any pre-looking at the data, and just give an immediate interpretation
2010-12-29 16:16:51 [Message] orange -> Chat: that may be true...It would require a lot more patience and time (nothing I'm against)
2010-12-29 16:17:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, I had no choice either, LOL
2010-12-29 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well can appreciate the dedication it takes to work with the data in an old fashioned way
2010-12-29 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when anyone asks me the best way to learn technical trading I tell them to throw out the computer and get graph paper and a number 2 pencil and make it your business to chart the market
2010-12-29 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for a minimum of 2 years
2010-12-29 16:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing more intimate
2010-12-29 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being said
2010-12-29 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot to learn about the nuances
2010-12-29 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan tools give more information about market action than ANYTHING else developed
2010-12-29 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you work with it...ask questions as they come up
2010-12-29 16:19:33 [Message] orange -> Chat: k
2010-12-29 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else let's get started
2010-12-29 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Matt - this is where we start everyday -
2010-12-29 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you click on the chart it will take you to the next chart in the sequence
2010-12-29 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the bottom of the chart will be all of the indicator charts available with DP
2010-12-29 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we use only a handful here...but we do expand to other areas when warranted
2010-12-29 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Ok...ready?
2010-12-29 16:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we go
2010-12-29 16:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly higher today in what can be acknowledged as a bounce at or near the zero line
2010-12-29 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the bottom portion of the chart
2010-12-29 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the components that make up this MCO also bounced higher today
2010-12-29 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was the indication yesterday when the 10% Trend had kissed its 5% cousin
2010-12-29 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2010-12-29 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these two "trend lines" are what make up the MCO itself
2010-12-29 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence...the 10% component is the 19 day EMA of the A/D line
2010-12-29 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 5% component is the 39 day EMA of the A/D line
2010-12-29 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend in either direction
2010-12-29 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the components and the MCO itself must be on the same side of their zero lines
2010-12-29 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the components are under their zero line, but the MCO is not, this instructs us that money flow is only correcting (or pausing) and that no change in a directional trend is noted
2010-12-29 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...when you're out of sync like this you're usually going to see choppy sideways action
2010-12-29 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is that everything must work together in order for a trend to sustain itself
2010-12-29 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one thing is misfiring, you may move forward, but it will be choppy at best
2010-12-29 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and trends are never choppy affairs
2010-12-29 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they unwind "impulsively"
2010-12-29 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the have a rhythm to them
2010-12-29 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pulse
2010-12-29 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without a rhythmic pulse, prices can not move in a natural order
2010-12-29 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we try to determine with these chats
2010-12-29 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trend
2010-12-29 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this knowledge, you're more than likely going to be choppy in your own trading
2010-12-29 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll tend to hop on the train that isn't stable on its tracks
2010-12-29 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a current example of something like this is with the current bullish sentiment
2010-12-29 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really doesn't mean a thing if sentiment is called "extreme" if the flow of money, the direction of the train, is still moving in this acquired direction
2010-12-29 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so though something like this is nice to know
2010-12-29 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a bearish divergent structure on an oscillator
2010-12-29 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really doesn't mean as much when the direction of the tide of money flow is continuing to move against it
2010-12-29 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the small move higher today in the CO breadth MCO
2010-12-29 16:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to creep up slowly higher in the CO breadth MCSUM
2010-12-29 16:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we are now within 50 points or so of challenging the November highs
2010-12-29 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be very important that the bulls show renewed strength next week, or we're likely to show a double top formation
2010-12-29 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a double top formation is not as critical to the market's character as it would be a divergent top
2010-12-29 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point...even if the CO NYSE MCSUM stalled here
2010-12-29 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the divergence here would be only slight
2010-12-29 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not nearly enough for it be a critical technical failure
2010-12-29 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-29 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved slightly higher as was the expectation yesterday
2010-12-29 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the 21 day chart
2010-12-29 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that today's move higher was important in that it gave us an expanded gap higher thought the +500 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-12-29 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level is what is called a level of "escape velocity"
2010-12-29 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also referred to a being minimally "overbought"
2010-12-29 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls can continue to push higher from here
2010-12-29 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any short term correction that might take place next week will tend to be quick and shallow in its content
2010-12-29 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2010-12-29 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will give this MCSUM the opportunity to snapback to or towards the +500 line for a test
2010-12-29 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-12-29 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this idea will only work IF this MCO doesn't continue to move to higher highs from here
2010-12-29 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that should happen over the next two days
2010-12-29 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week could be an important statement week for the bulls
2010-12-29 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (not the bears)
2010-12-29 16:37:01 [Message] manuj -> Chat: doesn't? or does
2010-12-29 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would basically lock in a positive month
2010-12-29 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...trying to see where that would apply
2010-12-29 16:37:43 [Message] manuj -> Chat: only work IF this MCO doesn't continue
2010-12-29 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it
2010-12-29 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO continues to power higher from here
2010-12-29 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out last weeks highs
2010-12-29 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be little chance of the bears being able to push back at the beginning of the month
2010-12-29 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a technician...the better the structure, and the proof that it can maintain such a structure, the stronger the market inherently is
2010-12-29 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a "reasonable expectation"
2010-12-29 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this does occur
2010-12-29 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sentiment bug-a-boo is to be put on the back burner
2010-12-29 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it won't be important here
2010-12-29 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be important
2010-12-29 16:40:10 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so basically next 2 sessions may be the slight pullback?
2010-12-29 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what is ALWAYS important
2010-12-29 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is if money is leading prices in one direction or the other
2010-12-29 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might
2010-12-29 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would make sense since this is a holiday week
2010-12-29 16:40:48 [Message] manuj -> Chat: got it
2010-12-29 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2010-12-29 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the end of the year
2010-12-29 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that was to sold and settled for 2010 is now done
2010-12-29 16:41:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why is the MCO chasing price?
2010-12-29 16:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that leaves position squaring
2010-12-29 16:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chasing price?
2010-12-29 16:41:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: right, it's lagging
2010-12-29 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...the speed in which money is moving into (in this case) the market is slowing
2010-12-29 16:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slower than before
2010-12-29 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still moving in
2010-12-29 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2010-12-29 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if price is leading breadth
2010-12-29 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is either a false start from a beginning point (consolidation or bottom)
2010-12-29 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OR
2010-12-29 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy created by the inital thrust higher is continuing to be worked off
2010-12-29 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the current case
2010-12-29 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'re looking at two different viewpoints
2010-12-29 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are working off what was used as fuel in the past
2010-12-29 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO is measuring whether or not any further fuel is being replenished or not so that the journey for prices can continue
2010-12-29 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without further fuel, eventually, the speed in which money moving into the market will falter and start to reverse
2010-12-29 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does that make sense?
2010-12-29 16:44:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-29 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone understand the concept?
2010-12-29 16:45:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just seems allergic to those Nov highs
2010-12-29 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stop comparing apples and pears
2010-12-29 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have an extreme
2010-12-29 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're always going to get divergence
2010-12-29 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we begin a new market sequence
2010-12-29 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has a starting point, a middle, and an end
2010-12-29 16:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a starting point in end in August..another starting point in end in November...another starting point in December
2010-12-29 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the gold to equities format
2010-12-29 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's stimulating gold now won't be felt by equities for 12-18 months
2010-12-29 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened at the beginning of December is still being worked off
2010-12-29 16:47:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I guess the energy just looks like less and less to me
2010-12-29 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're trying to look for here is for new fresh funds to come in so that once the momentum of the December advance wanes, this new fresh money will continue to push prices forward
2010-12-29 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course it will
2010-12-29 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec...let me get a chart
2010-12-29 16:48:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-12-29 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold on a sec...I'm making a new chart
2010-12-29 16:50:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super
2010-12-29 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for your patience -
2010-12-29 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart shown is a longer term chart of the NYSI with the NYA price chart from 2002
2010-12-29 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the red line is the MCSUM zero line
2010-12-29 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point here is that
2010-12-29 16:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we went to all time highs in the MCSUM back in 2003
2010-12-29 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that we had lower highs on the MCSUM every time the market continued to utilized the initial thrust of the advancing price structure
2010-12-29 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of us in this room has seen similar oscillator movements in the past
2010-12-29 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you have and extreme peak
2010-12-29 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from there
2010-12-29 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time must be allowed for this energy factor to be worked off
2010-12-29 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: space shuttle analogy
2010-12-29 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the initial thrust
2010-12-29 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you climb higher
2010-12-29 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gravity continues to lose its hold
2010-12-29 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much fuel to continue the journey
2010-12-29 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2010-12-29 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you still have fuel in the tank to use before it's completely jettisoned
2010-12-29 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the same concept here
2010-12-29 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-12-29 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew's main concern here has been with the NDX data
2010-12-29 16:57:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-29 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be truthful...this is the one index that continues to implied show weakness during this current market phase
2010-12-29 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but first of's only 100 stocks
2010-12-29 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was just rebalanced to boot
2010-12-29 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could have kept many money managers away from this group of stocks
2010-12-29 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest here
2010-12-29 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NASDAQ composite didn't show better strength as it has over the last couple of months
2010-12-29 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a larger concern
2010-12-29 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that we're dealing with small basket of stocks that carry the highest weight in the index
2010-12-29 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would have to do the research to see whether this lack of positive movement in the McClellan's can be blamed on the top 10 issues or the 90% that have a much small weight in this index's formula
2010-12-29 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-12-29 17:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that AAPL continues to lead higher here
2010-12-29 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some of the other leaders have been seeing good money flow
2010-12-29 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest...I really don't know to answer the question of why
2010-12-29 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is that by maintaining a horizontal structure in the NDX breadth MCSUM at such a high level
2010-12-29 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably a case of money finding other avenues of undervaluation (SML, MID stocks) while taking profits on what has already been a good year for this index as a whole
2010-12-29 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the posted chart
2010-12-29 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you see in this MCSUM chart are several bullish indications that create and maintain an uptrend
2010-12-29 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first is the 3 step advance of the 2002/2003 period
2010-12-29 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see this rare type of structures
2010-12-29 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it PROMISES us a bull market of at least 2 years
2010-12-29 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you will also see
2010-12-29 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we had another 3 stepper in the 2004/2005 period that extended the bull for another 2 years
2010-12-29 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not only wasn't it surprising that the bull trend peaked out in 2007
2010-12-29 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this was forecasted by the MCSUM back at the times this 3 step pattern took place
2010-12-29 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who have known me since the early 2000's know that I made mention of this many times over at TT
2010-12-29 17:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next thing is
2010-12-29 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get these 3 step patterns
2010-12-29 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see at least the same amount of divergent structures BEFORE the final move in price takes place
2010-12-29 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...we had 4 peaks
2010-12-29 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in what turned out to be textbook finish
2010-12-29 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we move into the topping phase of the structure
2010-12-29 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see the MCSUM appear to look like it's about to create a new, refreshed, segment by breaking the declining tops of these same divergent structures
2010-12-29 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's actually the time in which all of the willing and UN-willing traders threw in the towel and finally committed
2010-12-29 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw this happen in the early 2007 period when staunch bears such as Richard Russel, Bob Prechter, and Peter Eliades all decided to buy the market
2010-12-29 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there...we exhausted the buying power
2010-12-29 17:10:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I remember that
2010-12-29 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved lower toward the zero line
2010-12-29 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced off (near) the zero line
2010-12-29 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were no new bulls to be found
2010-12-29 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which created a classic Summation Failure pattern
2010-12-29 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this ended the 3 step bull phase and started the corrective process
2010-12-29 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's take it one step further
2010-12-29 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the bear market began
2010-12-29 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for it to end we needed to see the MCSUM move above the +500 level to generate enough thrust to provide "escape velocity" from this same bear market
2010-12-29 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will note that on the first attempt in the summer of 2007 we failed to accomplish this
2010-12-29 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT was your bear divergence for the entire 4 year structure
2010-12-29 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that showed us that there wasn't enough fresh money to sustain the momentum of the price structure
2010-12-29 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there...back below the zero line we went as selling began to intensify
2010-12-29 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again...the market then tried to get above the +500 level
2010-12-29 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and failed again
2010-12-29 17:14:16 [Message] orange -> Chat: How do you determine that 500 is the line of escape velocity?
2010-12-29 17:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (well, it did so slightly...but it wasn't able to maintain it)
2010-12-29 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whoosh...down we went
2010-12-29 17:14:27 [Message] orange -> Chat: through research or something mathematical?
2010-12-29 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history
2010-12-29 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must be stressed when I talk of this I'm referring to the NYSE ratio adjusted data
2010-12-29 17:15:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and do different levels apply to different indexes?
2010-12-29 17:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it used to be that the traditional data was fine but when more and more issues began to trade, it's usefulness as a appropriate tool began to wane
2010-12-29 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what the ratio adjusted does
2010-12-29 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's best to use it when you're trying to compare the markets history
2010-12-29 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the RA gives us a constant quotient of 1000 stocks that have traded on a daily basis
2010-12-29 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you don't have to worry that there was only 1300 issues in 1985 and 3700 issues today that might skew the amplitude of the MCSUM
2010-12-29 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it provides consistency
2010-12-29 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as different levels are concerned
2010-12-29 17:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the use of these tools in other areas (NDX, OEX, Dow, etc.) has been only been done for a short time
2010-12-29 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think Carl started posting this data back in 2005
2010-12-29 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our main focus in all of this
2010-12-29 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have 85 years of data to work with in the NYSE data
2010-12-29 17:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the parent
2010-12-29 17:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what all the guidelines and rules that we discuss here are based on
2010-12-29 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in a general sense
2010-12-29 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amplitude of any MCSUM provides a way to understand and acknowledge an expectation given our usage of basic charts
2010-12-29 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2010-12-29 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the DISTANCE between the 19 day and 39 day EMA
2010-12-29 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been working with EMA's
2010-12-29 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that the further away an moving average is from another moving average it provides insight as to the strength of the pattern itself without really having to know where that pattern might be (either price wise as a general idea)
2010-12-29 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the SPEED in which these two EMA's are moving in this EMA relationship
2010-12-29 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the higher the MCO reading is...the faster the 19 day EMA is moving away from the 39 day EMA
2010-12-29 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can deduce from that that whatever that MCO is measuring (A/D or price), it also has to be moving at a pretty good rate of speed to generate such numbers given that this is on a TRENDING basis
2010-12-29 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets do this...
2010-12-29 17:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-12-29 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the NYAD combo chart -
2010-12-29 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO at the top
2010-12-29 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that it's measuring the speed of the NYAD line as being pretty much neutral at the current time
2010-12-29 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then...if you look at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-12-29 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM has a reading of +509
2010-12-29 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together than
2010-12-29 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the almost neutral reading on the MCO
2010-12-29 17:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it being above its zero line
2010-12-29 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the two EMA's of the NYAD line itself continues to widening slowly
2010-12-29 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate
2010-12-29 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without knowing what the position of the NYAD line is in this relationship
2010-12-29 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it continues to move higher as well
2010-12-29 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not at an accelerated pace
2010-12-29 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-12-29 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO here
2010-12-29 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have broken out above resistance
2010-12-29 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have accomplished a simple snapback to this breakout line
2010-12-29 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and technically we should now move to higher highs in the speed in which money would be moving INTO the market
2010-12-29 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that continues
2010-12-29 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as breadth of market leads the direction of price
2010-12-29 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will continue to follow this money flow push
2010-12-29 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we talked about the "IF" scenarios earlier it could turn out to be a statement period for the bulls
2010-12-29 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-12-29 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further away these two EMA's are from each other
2010-12-29 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it is for prices to move in this same direction
2010-12-29 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time, however, you can only stretch a rubber band only so far before it begins to contract again
2010-12-29 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kinda think I'm running on this making sense at all?
2010-12-29 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing I don't want to do here is confuse
2010-12-29 17:36:16 [Message] manuj -> Chat: it is making sense
2010-12-29 17:36:19 [Message] orange -> Chat: yes,it does make sense
2010-12-29 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...good
2010-12-29 17:36:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, and thanks!
2010-12-29 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to understand what we're looking at
2010-12-29 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a tool is measuring
2010-12-29 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then be able to apply it to things that we can understand and have discovered for ourselves
2010-12-29 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even though the MCO might be showing a lack of vigor here
2010-12-29 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that the two EMA's are too stretched out for it to really matter
2010-12-29 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2010-12-29 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important that we focus now on the MCSUM's
2010-12-29 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they tell us how far away each of these EMA's are from each other
2010-12-29 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing this
2010-12-29 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then trade comfortably in knowing that the chances of a surprise broadside here is pretty low
2010-12-29 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only can really take place if we have more of a balance in this total relationship
2010-12-29 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can then take advantage of the other
2010-12-29 17:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we're extended like we are right now
2010-12-29 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's gonna take time for things to provide a better set up where a change in trend can actually occur
2010-12-29 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how I can make what seems to be "outrageous" statements from time to time on a message board
2010-12-29 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for I know that the technicals are on my side
2010-12-29 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe and understand what they are saying
2010-12-29 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and better yet
2010-12-29 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I'm challenged...I can present the evidence without a hesitation
2010-12-29 17:41:57 [Message] manuj -> Chat: one question i have is - given this information how best one can trade it? can we go with a leveraged ETF like TNA or a safer ETF like SPY
2010-12-29 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a personal decision based on each person's comfortability factor
2010-12-29 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here in which this data allows us
2010-12-29 17:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it tells us how friendly or hostile general market conditions are from which to trade or allocate
2010-12-29 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there...we then fine tune this information to best suit our personal trading
2010-12-29 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-12-29 17:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in today's market...given that we have just about every piece of data showing a bullish would be unwise to look to go against this tide
2010-12-29 17:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could...
2010-12-29 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be an effort to be a winner
2010-12-29 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each ETF would then be different based both on its make up and how its calculated and what money flow is actually showing in these same ETF's
2010-12-29 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with DP...we have the availability to look at some of these ETF sectors
2010-12-29 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Matt....
2010-12-29 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then use the same reasonable expectation that we use with the broader market to make an informed decision on how much exposure is needed to exploit a pattern
2010-12-29 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2010-12-29 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll take the XLY data as an example
2010-12-29 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYSE breadth MCO and MCSUM is heading lower
2010-12-29 17:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLY data is heading higher
2010-12-29 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depending on where we are on the broader based NYSE MCSUM
2010-12-29 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might be a winner on the long side with this sector
2010-12-29 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bigger flow of money is working against you
2010-12-29 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like looking along a coast line and seeing that the waves swirling around the pier...but moving out in the bigger, fuller picture, you see that the tide is moving out
2010-12-29 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have to be smart here
2010-12-29 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't just throw money at something and hope it agrees with you
2010-12-29 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of probability and outcome
2010-12-29 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take the XLF -
2010-12-29 17:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here you have a friendly broader market
2010-12-29 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this sector has yet to really particpate
2010-12-29 17:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like being in a new school, where everyone knows everyone else, and you decide that its time to join in the fun
2010-12-29 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the school is still friendly
2010-12-29 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now you've decided that you're not going to be the outcast and "participate"
2010-12-29 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what the money flow data is saying here
2010-12-29 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO and MCSUM are now confirming the higher price highs
2010-12-29 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the first time since 2007
2010-12-29 17:50:39 [Message] orange -> Chat: I read your comments about xlf from the 22nd (21st), you sound pretty bullish
2010-12-29 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please understand
2010-12-29 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I only read what the market provides to me to review
2010-12-29 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market is am I
2010-12-29 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market is ho am I
2010-12-29 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market is bearish...SO AM I
2010-12-29 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I finally stopped anticipating long ago
2010-12-29 17:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the downfall of many traders
2010-12-29 17:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they think they know the market better than the market
2010-12-29 17:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when I seem bullish, not only is this because the market is, but if challenged, I can then show why
2010-12-29 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there is very little to debate
2010-12-29 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem is
2010-12-29 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I do make what seems to be a brash statement
2010-12-29 17:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very rare that people ask why
2010-12-29 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because they don't want to know why as that would make them look like that they don't have an idea of what's going on
2010-12-29 17:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I always say
2010-12-29 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if someone makes a statement that contradicts what money flow is indicating
2010-12-29 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nicely challenge them to provide technical evidence
2010-12-29 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have yours
2010-12-29 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more times than not
2010-12-29 17:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll either get an argument...or they won't answer
2010-12-29 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's emotion
2010-12-29 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a way...
2010-12-29 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: message forums are quite beneficial
2010-12-29 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more times than not...they can distract
2010-12-29 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our enemy here is the market
2010-12-29 17:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2010-12-29 17:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take your money from you without a blink
2010-12-29 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all know this
2010-12-29 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so instead of fighting it
2010-12-29 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: isn't it better just to listen to it and follow its lead?
2010-12-29 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bad fundamental news is already known by the market
2010-12-29 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news too
2010-12-29 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's very tough to try to fight larger sums of money that we will ever see in our lifetimes
2010-12-29 17:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like buying a house
2010-12-29 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can price it at any price you want
2010-12-29 17:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless you find someone to agree with's not going to sell
2010-12-29 17:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s important to leave our biases at the trading door
2010-12-29 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-12-29 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's two hours already
2010-12-29 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get to the rest of the charts
2010-12-29 17:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...just watch the MCSUM's
2010-12-29 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are our focus
2010-12-29 17:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and near term
2010-12-29 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can break above last weeks highs in the MCO in the next day or so
2010-12-29 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a highly bullish event given how already extended, trend wise, in the A/D line
2010-12-29 17:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it takes a tremendous amount of strength to build on something that is already extended in the first place
2010-12-29 18:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Matt...there are the volume oscillators -
2010-12-29 18:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can again click on each one to take you to the next
2010-12-29 18:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you need explanations on any of these tools, Carl provides a short primer at the top of each indicator chart page
2010-12-29 18:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can go over any questions you might have next time
2010-12-29 18:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now neutral
2010-12-29 18:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2010-12-29 18:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's and VTO's remain unchanged...suggesting a orderly uptrend in progress
2010-12-29 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's your TRIN's -
2010-12-29 18:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.10
2010-12-29 18:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2010-12-29 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (what I wouldn't give for an oversold Open 10 here)
2010-12-29 18:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2010-12-29 18:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2010-12-29 18:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bearish side of neutral now
2010-12-29 18:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .99
2010-12-29 18:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2010-12-29 18:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dead neutral
2010-12-29 18:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so given that we didn't review our entire sequence
2010-12-29 18:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to have short and intermediate term control of the price action
2010-12-29 18:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the Open 10's are suggesting that it will harder than usual for the MCO's to move above last weeks highs
2010-12-29 18:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this does occur, this would be a sign of better than average strength in the markets
2010-12-29 18:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the sectors remain bullish
2010-12-29 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both internally and externally
2010-12-29 18:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, until proven otherwise, any surprises will still tend to be to the upside
2010-12-29 18:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-29 18:06:22 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks a lot
2010-12-29 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective here is make you all fishermen
2010-12-29 18:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to understand why prices are able move as they do...when they do
2010-12-29 18:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Matt...did you have something?
2010-12-29 18:07:30 [Message] orange -> Chat: nope
2010-12-29 18:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I wish all of you a great and prosperous new year
2010-12-29 18:07:52 [Message] orange -> Chat: i was just gonna say that hooking whales is more fun =D
2010-12-29 18:07:56 [Message] manuj -> Chat: when is the next chat now?
2010-12-29 18:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-29 18:08:00 [Message] orange -> Chat: thanks for the time
2010-12-29 18:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next chat is regular schedule - Tuesday and Thursday
2010-12-29 18:08:14 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok thanks
2010-12-29 18:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so next year
2010-12-29 18:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...thank you
2010-12-29 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I appreciate your support
2010-12-29 18:08:31 [Message] manuj -> Chat: happy new year everyone!!
2010-12-29 18:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a great weekend
2010-12-29 18:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again next week
2010-12-29 18:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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