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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-28 16:00:17 fib1618: good day
2015-12-28 16:00:21 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-28 16:00:32 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-12-28 16:00:54 fib1618: doing fine
2015-12-28 16:01:00 fib1618: how was your holiday?
2015-12-28 16:01:09 thespookyone: Good, you?
2015-12-28 16:01:38 fib1618: fine and dandy
2015-12-28 16:01:51 fib1618: I actually had a day off! [smile]
2015-12-28 16:01:56 thespookyone: NICE
2015-12-28 16:02:53 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-12-28 16:05:19 fib1618: let's wait another minute
2015-12-28 16:05:39 thespookyone: Dicey market...
2015-12-28 16:05:47 fib1618: I'll check on the BETS...brb
2015-12-28 16:06:57 fib1618: -30
2015-12-28 16:07:22 fib1618: hard to tell if it was an anomaly last week or not
2015-12-28 16:07:23 fib1618: that said
2015-12-28 16:07:39 fib1618: we also know not to go against what the MCO's say
2015-12-28 16:08:01 fib1618: and why it's best to go neutral for now on any new positions
2015-12-28 16:08:20 fib1618: and have solid bullish stops (above market) in place
2015-12-28 16:08:38 fib1618: let's see what today brings
2015-12-28 16:09:06 fib1618: after failing to move above the +50 level on Thursday
2015-12-28 16:09:24 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued to pullback toward its zero line today
2015-12-28 16:09:37 fib1618: coming in with a reading of +21
2015-12-28 16:09:49 fib1618: so if the buyers are in the process of taking control
2015-12-28 16:10:11 fib1618: a bounce on Tuesday near +25 natural support would be expected
2015-12-28 16:10:30 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-12-28 16:10:50 fib1618: and it has now snapped back up to the -250 level with a reading of -251
2015-12-28 16:11:08 fib1618: so we have a bit of a compression point here
2015-12-28 16:11:23 fib1618: where the short term trend is showing positive characteristics
2015-12-28 16:11:48 fib1618: while the intermediate term players would love to grab back their control of things
2015-12-28 16:12:09 fib1618: so something is likely to give on Tuesday
2015-12-28 16:12:29 fib1618: and that will set the tone into the last trading day of the year on Thursday
2015-12-28 16:12:42 fib1618: anyone know...full or half day on Thursday??
2015-12-28 16:13:07 fib1618: looking at the CO MCO components
2015-12-28 16:13:37 fib1618: and here we seeing indications that the buyers are going to try to make a stand
2015-12-28 16:14:00 fib1618: as the 10% and 5% Trends have now snapped back toward and to their zero lines today
2015-12-28 16:14:11 tuna: CME Reg Close
2015-12-28 16:14:16 fib1618: so, here too, a bounce higher would be expected near term
2015-12-28 16:14:26 fib1618: then New York will likely follow
2015-12-28 16:16:19 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-12-28 16:16:36 fib1618: and here too we found resistance at the +52 level
2015-12-28 16:17:02 fib1618: and have now pulled back to the +32 level
2015-12-28 16:17:25 fib1618: which is where we peaked out at the beginning of December
2015-12-28 16:17:42 fib1618: so...snapback complete there
2015-12-28 16:18:05 fib1618: the important thing here to remember is that since we did take out this same peak in the NYSE MCO's
2015-12-28 16:18:46 fib1618: that the respective price highs will also be taken out
2015-12-28 16:19:07 fib1618: so the odds of a bounce to higher price highs by Wednesday are around 75%
2015-12-28 16:19:29 fib1618: with the main focus being
2015-12-28 16:19:48 fib1618: whether or not we move to a higher high in the MCO's during this expected breakout
2015-12-28 16:20:14 fib1618: which is natural resistance for the pattern
2015-12-28 16:21:23 fib1618: we should note, however, that we did close at a higher price high last Wednesday
2015-12-28 16:22:05 fib1618: but it's not likely that this is all we'll see from this internal thrust either
2015-12-28 16:22:27 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-12-28 16:22:36 fib1618: and here we moved to a +32 reading on Wednesday
2015-12-28 16:22:57 fib1618: which is still quite a ways away from the end November highs
2015-12-28 16:23:13 fib1618: so no real intermarket confirmation in this respect
2015-12-28 16:23:27 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ components
2015-12-28 16:23:44 fib1618: and here we see that the 10% has now fully snapped back to its zero line after moving above it last week
2015-12-28 16:24:12 fib1618: while the 5% Trend repelled from this same line of neutrality between buyers and sellers
2015-12-28 16:24:41 fib1618: so, analytically, a technical bounce is likely here as well
2015-12-28 16:24:50 fib1618: as the 10% bounces off zero line support
2015-12-28 16:25:27 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO found resistance at the +49 level
2015-12-28 16:26:07 fib1618: and has now pulled back to the +16 level
2015-12-28 16:26:17 fib1618: which is a deeper retracement than the buyers would like to see
2015-12-28 16:27:09 fib1618: but it still was enough to move the NDX breadth MCSUM above its one day hesitation point two weeks ago
2015-12-28 16:27:25 fib1618: so that should relieve any pent up downside pressure for now
2015-12-28 16:27:56 fib1618: the NDX components remain on a positive crossover configuration well above their zero line
2015-12-28 16:28:29 fib1618: so the top 100 stocks on the NASDAQ exchange continue to hold most of the power at this time
2015-12-28 16:29:07 fib1618: after peaking out at a +60
2015-12-28 16:29:18 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO has now retraced over half of that number
2015-12-28 16:29:30 fib1618: coming in today with a +23
2015-12-28 16:29:47 fib1618: the SPX components remain positive
2015-12-28 16:30:05 fib1618: while the SPX breadth MCSUM has now reached back up near its zero line with a reading of -34
2015-12-28 16:31:05 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO did even better than the SPX peaking out with a +70 reading on Wednesday
2015-12-28 16:31:44 fib1618: but has now pretty much lost all that was provided with a reading today of +12
2015-12-28 16:32:13 fib1618: rather disappointing for the buyers that were not able to hold above the +25 level in the MCO
2015-12-28 16:32:50 fib1618: though with the OEX 10% Trend now back below its zero line with a -8 reading
2015-12-28 16:33:33 fib1618: and being quite near the 5% Trend which has a reading of -20
2015-12-28 16:33:47 fib1618: a technical bounce here would be not at all surprising
2015-12-28 16:33:53 fib1618: the focus here then
2015-12-28 16:34:18 fib1618: would be whether the 10% can get back above the zero line on any ensuing bounce
2015-12-28 16:34:24 thespookyone: the oils may be hitting a bit harder there...
2015-12-28 16:34:39 fib1618: with it being ideal that the 5% join the 10% back above its zero line
2015-12-28 16:34:59 fib1618: still getting beaten up, eh?
2015-12-28 16:35:04 thespookyone: yep
2015-12-28 16:35:47 fib1618: well...most of the energy sector is pulling not as much weight here
2015-12-28 16:36:02 fib1618: let me check the Dow weighting for a moment...brb
2015-12-28 16:36:58 fib1618: Chevron is 13th
2015-12-28 16:37:09 fib1618: Exxon 15th
2015-12-28 16:37:21 fib1618: so they're on the heavy side, but not heavy hitters
2015-12-28 16:37:45 fib1618: here are the current weightings -
2015-12-28 16:38:14 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO peaked out last week at +71
2015-12-28 16:38:46 fib1618: with the Dow breadth components still on a crossover buy signal
2015-12-28 16:39:00 fib1618: noting also that the Dow breadth MCSUM is now back above its zero line
2015-12-28 16:39:18 fib1618: but the individual postings remain congested
2015-12-28 16:39:36 fib1618: this tells us that though the buyers have the advantage right now
2015-12-28 16:39:49 fib1618: it's not like they're tearing the room apart either
2015-12-28 16:40:34 fib1618: now the MID breadth MCO is showing a lot of buoyancy right now
2015-12-28 16:41:01 fib1618: having only pulled back about 9 data points from last week's high point
2015-12-28 16:41:13 fib1618: so the selling seems to be focused in the large caps
2015-12-28 16:41:51 fib1618: and as we look at the 21 day close up chart
2015-12-28 16:42:06 fib1618: it would appear that with our closing the divergent gap resistance point today
2015-12-28 16:42:44 fib1618: that we're going to make a try at the main gap resistance point seen at around the +250 level
2015-12-28 16:43:06 fib1618: again suggesting that will likely hang tough for the rest of the week
2015-12-28 16:43:11 fib1618: sort of like today
2015-12-28 16:43:30 fib1618: on the other hand
2015-12-28 16:43:53 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO showed a bit more weakness compared to the mid caps over the last couple of days
2015-12-28 16:44:23 fib1618: with the SML breadth MCSUM near its zero line with a -11 reading
2015-12-28 16:44:46 fib1618: maybe we're going to close out the year flat
2015-12-28 16:44:59 fib1618: both with the MCO and the MCSUM
2015-12-28 16:45:15 fib1618: which is pretty much what we expected to happen last week
2015-12-28 16:45:29 fib1618: until the market had other ideas on the reflex
2015-12-28 16:45:51 fib1618: and after peaking last week
2015-12-28 16:46:06 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO has also pulled back to about the +23 level
2015-12-28 16:46:22 fib1618: so maybe a bounce here might be expected near term
2015-12-28 16:46:33 fib1618: and depending on the amplitude
2015-12-28 16:46:55 fib1618: will tell us what to expect going into next week
2015-12-28 16:47:00 fib1618: so...
2015-12-28 16:47:17 fib1618: we had a typical reflex rally last week
2015-12-28 16:47:51 fib1618: which has led to the usual backing and filling in an attempt to provide balance over this same stretch of trading days
2015-12-28 16:48:10 fib1618: several of the internals are indicating that a technical bounce is likely as soon as Tuesday
2015-12-28 16:48:26 fib1618: and if the breadth ratio is 3:1 or better to the good
2015-12-28 16:48:51 fib1618: that should keep things on a steady course for rest of this week into the beginning part of next year
2015-12-28 16:49:00 fib1618: let's see how the volume side did
2015-12-28 16:49:30 fib1618: not a lot of good news for the XLE
2015-12-28 16:49:36 fib1618: we'll hit that one tomorrow
2015-12-28 16:50:46 fib1618: looking at both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2015-12-28 16:51:12 fib1618: and both were not able to maintain their moves above the +50 level
2015-12-28 16:51:26 fib1618: and this is a concern for prices if we're going to hold the gains made from the Monday - Wednesday rally from last week
2015-12-28 16:52:17 fib1618: if you look at the daily NYSE volume MCSUM
2015-12-28 16:52:28 fib1618: you can see how it looks to be struggling higher
2015-12-28 16:52:47 fib1618: and about to turn over to the downside again
2015-12-28 16:52:56 fib1618: sort of like a last gasp
2015-12-28 16:53:20 fib1618: so it will be very important for the buyers to come in strong on Tuesday to break this lethargic look in the pattern
2015-12-28 16:54:07 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also showing the same kind of "depth" to last week's reversal
2015-12-28 16:54:24 fib1618: as it peaked out at +41
2015-12-28 16:54:42 fib1618: and has now moved lower to the +16 level
2015-12-28 16:54:47 fib1618: not a lot of impulsive strength here
2015-12-28 16:55:11 fib1618: and the secondaries tend to sell off the most as we move into the end of the year
2015-12-28 16:55:36 fib1618: part of unloading the issues that didn't perform well for one reason or the other
2015-12-28 16:55:49 fib1618: ouch...
2015-12-28 16:56:14 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO has actually snapped back to its zero line now with a +4 reading
2015-12-28 16:56:55 fib1618: that's not a good thing considering that NDX breadth seems to be showing better numbers
2015-12-28 16:57:23 fib1618: the NDX volume components remain positive though
2015-12-28 16:57:55 fib1618: and a bounce higher for the 10% Trend off the 5% Trend is our next technical expectation there
2015-12-28 16:58:06 fib1618: so another vote for a bounce on Tuesday
2015-12-28 16:58:46 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO seems to be in sync with its breadth cousin right now
2015-12-28 16:59:05 fib1618: with the components strongly suggesting that we're due for a technical bounce near term
2015-12-28 16:59:33 fib1618: same with the OEX volume components
2015-12-28 16:59:58 fib1618: with the OEX volume MCO showing the same kind of weakness noted in the NDX 100
2015-12-28 17:00:22 fib1618: so is the Dow volume MCO for that matter
2015-12-28 17:01:02 fib1618: so the selling continues to show a preponderance toward the large caps
2015-12-28 17:01:43 fib1618: and we can see this in the comparable levels seen in both the MID and SML volume MCO's
2015-12-28 17:02:17 fib1618: quite a bit of near term tension on the tape right now
2015-12-28 17:02:41 fib1618: and after peaking out with +49 on Wednesday
2015-12-28 17:03:06 fib1618: the TM volume MCO has also fallen back to the +18 level
2015-12-28 17:03:27 fib1618: with the TM volume MCSUM just below its zero line with a reading of -17
2015-12-28 17:03:33 fib1618: so...
2015-12-28 17:04:10 fib1618: it would appear that last week's rally was more technical than it was substantive given how the volume MCO's have given back all of their strength
2015-12-28 17:04:37 fib1618: but the evidence suggests that a technical bounce to the upside is likely on Tuesday
2015-12-28 17:05:06 fib1618: and from that we should have another piece to the puzzle to work with as we move beyond this week
2015-12-28 17:05:39 fib1618: CVI's are mixed
2015-12-28 17:05:57 fib1618: VTO's continue to meander
2015-12-28 17:06:50 fib1618: while the STVO's show that the buyers have taken lukewarm control from the zero line readings of last week
2015-12-28 17:07:09 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.72
2015-12-28 17:07:34 fib1618: Open 10 now getting deeply "oversold" with a 1.26 reading
2015-12-28 17:07:47 fib1618: and that's going to keep declines from getting out of hand for now
2015-12-28 17:08:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.20
2015-12-28 17:08:11 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.01
2015-12-28 17:08:23 fib1618: not really caring what to do
2015-12-28 17:08:48 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.37
2015-12-28 17:08:57 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11
2015-12-28 17:09:01 fib1618: so....
2015-12-28 17:09:21 fib1618: it would appear that any downside risk is minor at this point
2015-12-28 17:09:32 fib1618: that any kind of sell off will be short lived
2015-12-28 17:09:42 fib1618: and prices will tend to rally as the day goes along
2015-12-28 17:09:45 fib1618: near term, a technical bounce is likely to take place on Tuesday
2015-12-28 17:10:28 fib1618: and depending on the amplitude of the bounce
2015-12-28 17:10:40 fib1618: will give us something to work with
2015-12-28 17:11:04 fib1618: but it may still be rather foggy as to the markets true intentions at this stage of the game
2015-12-28 17:11:12 fib1618: because of this
2015-12-28 17:11:19 fib1618: best to stay market neutral for now
2015-12-28 17:11:25 fib1618: and if the itch is there
2015-12-28 17:11:29 fib1618: hit and run
2015-12-28 17:11:36 fib1618: otherwise
2015-12-28 17:11:48 fib1618: unless something spectacular happens on Tuesday
2015-12-28 17:12:02 fib1618: it's going to be a low volume week
2015-12-28 17:12:23 fib1618: with not a lot of commitment from either side
2015-12-28 17:12:31 fib1618: and with that said
2015-12-28 17:12:53 fib1618: the market will probably move 2% plus tomorrow just to stick a finger our eye! [wink]
2015-12-28 17:13:05 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-28 17:13:51 fib1618: thoughts?
2015-12-28 17:13:59 thespookyone: I'm kinda with the 2% LOL
2015-12-28 17:14:07 fib1618: yea...probably
2015-12-28 17:14:11 fib1618: just to mess with everyone
2015-12-28 17:14:18 thespookyone: yep
2015-12-28 17:14:29 fib1618: futures are currently flat
2015-12-28 17:14:35 tuna: spx summ and tm vol summ at zero lines
2015-12-28 17:14:54 fib1618: but we know that we won't see anything really happen until Europe opens later tonight
2015-12-28 17:15:00 fib1618: yes sir
2015-12-28 17:15:24 fib1618: showing that there is balance between buyers and sellers on a intermediate term trending basis
2015-12-28 17:15:37 fib1618: so one side is about to take "control"
2015-12-28 17:16:02 fib1618: the buyers have to make the move though
2015-12-28 17:16:16 tuna: yep
2015-12-28 17:17:02 fib1618: as both are below zero
2015-12-28 17:17:08 fib1618: so it could be a simple snapback
2015-12-28 17:17:18 fib1618: the problem though
2015-12-28 17:17:24 fib1618: is the whisper coming from the volume data
2015-12-28 17:17:39 fib1618: if the buyers were taking better control of things
2015-12-28 17:17:49 fib1618: we should see the +25 levels hold in the MCO's
2015-12-28 17:18:01 fib1618: and they're not
2015-12-28 17:18:07 fib1618: could be the time of the year
2015-12-28 17:18:13 fib1618: but it is what it is
2015-12-28 17:18:21 fib1618: and we know that without volume
2015-12-28 17:18:30 fib1618: prices can not move forward or backward
2015-12-28 17:18:38 tuna: any comment on eoy window dressing
2015-12-28 17:18:49 fib1618: happens every month
2015-12-28 17:18:53 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-28 17:19:09 fib1618: it's all for the reports
2015-12-28 17:19:23 fib1618: but the market has been pretty much flat for the year
2015-12-28 17:19:40 fib1618: EOY dressing isn't as important this year
2015-12-28 17:19:52 fib1618: where if the market is up 20%
2015-12-28 17:20:01 fib1618: you want to show the issues that did the best job
2015-12-28 17:20:21 fib1618: down want to show that you didn't do as badly
2015-12-28 17:20:29 fib1618: it's all smoke and mirrors
2015-12-28 17:20:46 fib1618: especially when you get just buy an ETF and be done with it
2015-12-28 17:21:05 fib1618: tell you what...
2015-12-28 17:21:15 fib1618: if we rally tomorrow as we expect technically
2015-12-28 17:21:27 fib1618: then you can point to EOY window dressing as the cause [smile]
2015-12-28 17:21:38 tuna: funny
2015-12-28 17:21:44 fib1618: that's how it works
2015-12-28 17:22:03 fib1618: all the media and the public wants to know is the reason why the market does this or that
2015-12-28 17:22:26 fib1618: something that will explain why this or that happened
2015-12-28 17:22:35 fib1618: we hear it every night at 6:00
2015-12-28 17:23:05 fib1618: "the market was up today because George Soros bought healthcare stocks"
2015-12-28 17:23:08 fib1618: or whatever
2015-12-28 17:23:22 tuna: Been reading Wyckoff recently for the first time.
2015-12-28 17:23:30 fib1618: how do you like it?
2015-12-28 17:23:54 fib1618: his analysis seems to be the hot ticket these days
2015-12-28 17:23:59 tuna: Like it a lot esp since I've never used volume before
2015-12-28 17:24:37 tuna: It's because of the volume avail on the software now
2015-12-28 17:24:52 fib1618: seems like every month the San Francisco TA club is doing something with a Wyckoff theme
2015-12-28 17:25:03 fib1618: OK...I'll drink to that
2015-12-28 17:25:21 fib1618: here's the way I look at it
2015-12-28 17:25:43 fib1618: everyone should pursue any and all things that are technically based
2015-12-28 17:25:52 fib1618: sort of like food
2015-12-28 17:25:56 fib1618: if you don't try it
2015-12-28 17:26:03 fib1618: you don't know if you'll like it or not
2015-12-28 17:26:21 fib1618: evidently it's done well for Tom (semibiz)
2015-12-28 17:27:07 fib1618: so if it compliments what you're doing
2015-12-28 17:27:14 fib1618: then I say go for it
2015-12-28 17:27:15 fib1618: for me
2015-12-28 17:27:25 fib1618: I've been doing this for....let me count
2015-12-28 17:27:36 fib1618: 45 years
2015-12-28 17:27:37 fib1618: wow
2015-12-28 17:27:44 fib1618: that's funny
2015-12-28 17:27:48 fib1618: that's a long time
2015-12-28 17:28:00 fib1618: I have tried just about everything out there at one time or the other
2015-12-28 17:28:31 fib1618: the key to anything analytical is that you completely understand the math and/or what it provides for analysis
2015-12-28 17:28:54 fib1618: many look at something and then wonder if it will work in theory
2015-12-28 17:29:10 fib1618: back testing and such
2015-12-28 17:29:39 fib1618: but the bottom line is that any introduction of any methodology must meld well with what you already have in your tool bag
2015-12-28 17:29:55 fib1618: otherwise it tends to distract than help
2015-12-28 17:30:18 tuna: agree 100%
2015-12-28 17:30:26 fib1618: you've been around a while
2015-12-28 17:30:38 fib1618: you know what missing pieces are needed
2015-12-28 17:30:44 fib1618: bottom line
2015-12-28 17:31:11 fib1618: you just want to increase your odds of a successful trade each and every time you put your money to work
2015-12-28 17:32:02 fib1618: so if Wyckoff doesn't to that after you played with it for a while, you just move on instead of trying to force the issue
2015-12-28 17:32:30 fib1618: give us an update in the future
2015-12-28 17:32:38 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-12-28 17:32:45 tuna: will do
2015-12-28 17:32:50 fib1618: I'm going to go back to inventory
2015-12-28 17:32:56 fib1618: which seems to be taking far too long
2015-12-28 17:33:03 fib1618: everyone have a great evening
2015-12-28 17:33:05 tuna: Good night
2015-12-28 17:33:29 fib1618: and we'll do this all again in about 22 hours
2015-12-28 17:33:30 fib1618: good night

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