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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-28 16:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-28 16:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-28 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mr. orange sir...how are you?
2010-12-28 16:01:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very well, thx, and you?
2010-12-28 16:01:47 [Message] orange -> Chat: I am well, how were your holidays? =)
2010-12-28 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...
2010-12-28 16:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and my holidays were fine...though I was sick and missed out on the festivities
2010-12-28 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you hear what IBM forecasted last week?
2010-12-28 16:07:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2010-12-28 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they believe that we will have holographic phones and TV's by 2015
2010-12-28 16:07:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: geez
2010-12-28 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing time we're living in
2010-12-28 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very Star Wars
2010-12-28 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "help me Obi Won...you're our only hope"
2010-12-28 16:08:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, my grandmother went from horse and carriage to man on the moon-a lifetime can encompass a lot
2010-12-28 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're moving at a much rapid rate now
2010-12-28 16:08:45 [Message] orange -> Chat: technology moves fast with 7 billion people
2010-12-28 16:08:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-12-28 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway..any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-28 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started...
2010-12-28 16:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2010-12-28 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we go on
2010-12-28 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you folks the next chat on Wednesday or Thursday?>?
2010-12-28 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hands
2010-12-28 16:12:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I like wedns, can hardly get a trade off on Fridays
2010-12-28 16:12:35 [Message] rainy -> Chat: Wednesday
2010-12-28 16:12:47 [Message] orange -> Chat: i can be at either
2010-12-28 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok...anyone else?
2010-12-28 16:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..then let's do the next chat tomorrow (Wednesday)
2010-12-28 16:13:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice, thanks
2010-12-28 16:13:13 [Message] Miss Direction -> Chat: Wednesday here
2010-12-28 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll be back to regular Tuesday/Thursday next week
2010-12-28 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never let it be said that we have a dictator running the joint!
2010-12-28 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's go to DP
2010-12-28 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: darn...the CO has not been updated
2010-12-28 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move on to the composite
2010-12-28 16:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a small point change yesterday, the NYSE breadth MCO moved a bit lower today
2010-12-28 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now slowed the rate of ascent of the NYSE breadth MCSUM as it approaches the +500 level
2010-12-28 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain on a cross over buy signal and both remain above their zero line
2010-12-28 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls continue to control the action on a short term trending basis
2010-12-28 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the weather has been bad back east, and it being a holiday week, we might be stuck in moving in baby steps until next week rolls around
2010-12-28 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure of the NYSE breadth MCO remains bullish with bottoms above bottoms controlling the pattern
2010-12-28 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still basically in a holding pattern with the path of least resistance continuing to be higher
2010-12-28 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a small point change on Monday, the NASDAQ breadth MCO continued to move lower today
2010-12-28 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NYSE breadth MCSUM, this relaxing of the MCO towards its zero line is slowing the rate of ascent of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM as it approaches its November highs at the +500 level
2010-12-28 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between these major markets, we are fully in sync
2010-12-28 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and neither is relying on the other to provide directional purpose
2010-12-28 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ 10% index and we note that it's snapped back to the 5% index
2010-12-28 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a near term bounce would be indicated
2010-12-28 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern itself continues to consolidate just below the 2675 level
2010-12-28 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks more like a pause to refresh as it does a top
2010-12-28 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, with a lower top shown on the NASDAQ MCO
2010-12-28 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be that we're in the process of developing a rounded top of some kind
2010-12-28 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event...the bulls will need to do more than to sit back on their laurels if they wish to continue to see prices moving higher from here
2010-12-28 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise, we might be close to the kind of shake out that we were talking about last week that might occur in the beginning of January
2010-12-28 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also the time when the new Congress is seated
2010-12-28 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2010-12-28 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now accelerated the downtrend in the NDX breadth MCSUM after having performed its obligatory snapback to the +750 level
2010-12-28 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX MCO components
2010-12-28 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that although we have a crossover sell, both index's remain above their zero line
2010-12-28 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX breadth MCO below its zero line, this would suggest corrective activity is upon us
2010-12-28 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 10% index near its zero line
2010-12-28 16:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see a bounce off the zero line as soon as tomorrow
2010-12-28 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also if we put ruler to monitor
2010-12-28 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the NDX breadth MCO remains above its short term rising bottoms line
2010-12-28 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we might be running our of steam here with the NDX
2010-12-28 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may not be until next week before we see any price deterioration given the NDX breadth MCO structure and its implications
2010-12-28 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we always talk about
2010-12-28 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always time to catch a move...just need to be patient for the best set up
2010-12-28 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE and NASDAQ composite data telling a different story than that of the NDX
2010-12-28 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably going to take some time for the "parents" to line up with a single child (NDX)
2010-12-28 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO continued lower today
2010-12-28 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we had a higher high in this MCO before we moved towards the zero line
2010-12-28 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...something like this would tell us that we are on a hold here...and not anything important as to consider selling at this juncture
2010-12-28 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably just a lack of traders than anything else
2010-12-28 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one might want to wait for further prove of a possible change in trend before assuming that one is actually taking place
2010-12-28 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here that the SPX breadth MCSUM is slowing as it approaches its +750 level
2010-12-28 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is very orderly here...and has purpose
2010-12-28 16:32:44 [Message] orange -> Chat: where do you view the SPX breadth mcsum ?
2010-12-28 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX breadth MCO
2010-12-28 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have DP?
2010-12-28 16:32:59 [Message] orange -> Chat: nope
2010-12-28 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to really get a feel of what we do here, I would highly suggest that you subscribe
2010-12-28 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wealth of data there is well worth it
2010-12-28 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it helps in following along
2010-12-28 16:33:49 [Message] orange -> Chat: I'll take a look
2010-12-28 16:33:58 [Message] orange -> Chat: yea, i noticed previously I was missing some pieces
2010-12-28 16:34:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: provides a ton of info
2010-12-28 16:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to answer your question...Carl has MCO's and MCSUM's for both breadth and volume on the NYSE, NASDAQ, NDX, SPX, OEX, Dow, MID, SML and the total market
2010-12-28 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's only $19.95 a month
2010-12-28 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're billed each month, so if you don't like it, dump it
2010-12-28 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will
2010-12-28 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the only service I recommend
2010-12-28 16:35:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I couldn't trade without it
2010-12-28 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2010-12-28 16:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will continue to be as descriptive as possible
2010-12-28 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a little secret that you may not know
2010-12-28 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Carl wanted to sell DP to me back in 2002
2010-12-28 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I asked him why?
2010-12-28 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he said he was getting "bored"
2010-12-28 16:36:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh man perfect for you!
2010-12-28 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I spent 15 minutes with him and convinced to stick with it
2010-12-28 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then he joined up with Stock charts...and that made it all worth while
2010-12-28 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back...I probably should have taken him up on his offer
2010-12-28 16:37:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your commentary would be superb
2010-12-28 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be easy to do
2010-12-28 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who knows...one day opportunity will come knocking again
2010-12-28 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Carl is a good technician
2010-12-28 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm glad he's still around
2010-12-28 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the markets
2010-12-28 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change today on the OEX breadth MCO
2010-12-28 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a higher high last week
2010-12-28 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components in a bullish configuration
2010-12-28 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still don't have any indication of a top as yet
2010-12-28 16:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM has a reading of +633 as well
2010-12-28 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if it does turn lower, prices might as well, but they won't be able to trend lower
2010-12-28 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could only happen as we get closer to the +250 level
2010-12-28 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at least a couple of weeks would be needed before we can even consider a change in trend
2010-12-28 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why, if anything, we're on hold
2010-12-28 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO bounced higher today
2010-12-28 16:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the OEX breadth MCSUM, the Dow breadth MCSUM also has a reading above the +500 level - +592
2010-12-28 16:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO continued lower today and now has a reading of +4
2010-12-28 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a zero line bounce would be the near term expectation
2010-12-28 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also supporting a near term bounce is the kiss of the 10% trend and the 5% trend
2010-12-28 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2010-12-28 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are perceptively above the November highs now
2010-12-28 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we are still a couple of months off from a top
2010-12-28 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we will probably need to see some divergence first before we run out of steam
2010-12-28 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the bullish SML data we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks
2010-12-28 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our specific discussion of the MID last week
2010-12-28 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet now that we won't see a correctional period of more than a week or so until sometime in the spring
2010-12-28 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of the SML
2010-12-28 16:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2010-12-28 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the great majority of the breadth MCO's today is now in the vicinity of its zero line with a +11 reading
2010-12-28 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML MCO components remain bullish at this time as well
2010-12-28 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really unlikely that we're going to see any kind of attempt by the bears until sometime next week
2010-12-28 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO has a reading of +8
2010-12-28 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM showing a lot of congestion with its 4 week advance
2010-12-28 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, if anything else, is the bears best reason why we might be moving into a period of back and fill in the short term
2010-12-28 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it will be up to the bulls to provide some humpf so that we can continue to extend the current rally from the September lows
2010-12-28 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the common only NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-28 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what we've been noting all session...a snapback in process towards the zero line
2010-12-28 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted that the common only A/D line itself is now within 1% of its all time highs
2010-12-28 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like many of the breadth charts this evening
2010-12-28 16:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the CO MCO and its components are suggesting a bounce higher on Wednesday
2010-12-28 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether prices tag along, or to what degree, is always something we have to watch for
2010-12-28 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2010-12-28 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a small point change in the CO NYSE volume MCO
2010-12-28 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the important thing for today is...
2010-12-28 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we now have the CO NYSE volume MCSUM at new recovery highs taking out October/November peaks
2010-12-28 16:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything else, there's absolutely nothing wrong with volume right now
2010-12-28 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is confirming the price highs nicely
2010-12-28 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have our second bottom above bottom on the CO NYSE volume MCSUM
2010-12-28 16:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +833
2010-12-28 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that the bears will be able to hold any pull back for more than a day
2010-12-28 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...as we've been watching
2010-12-28 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any sell off in the morning is likely to be retraced before the day is over
2010-12-28 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just too much liquidity holding prices from moving lower currently
2010-12-28 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe this will change next week...but for now...the path of least resistance is solidly higher
2010-12-28 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCSUM is also at new highs as well
2010-12-28 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to short here is really a hard way to make money right now
2010-12-28 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...
2010-12-28 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're hearing all sorts of excuses of why this is happening
2010-12-28 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: low volatility
2010-12-28 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: POMO
2010-12-28 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yadda, yadda, yadda
2010-12-28 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all it is is that we just have too many buyers overwhelming sellers
2010-12-28 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more demand than supply
2010-12-28 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all this is
2010-12-28 16:55:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not many of either, really
2010-12-28 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...as we talked about last week
2010-12-28 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: POMO won't be felt until sometime next year
2010-12-28 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and low volatility is a manifestation of low interest rates
2010-12-28 16:56:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've been wondering, will we feel it if it isn't working?
2010-12-28 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems to working fine here
2010-12-28 16:57:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not really, look at rates
2010-12-28 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important in not letting your emotion get the best of us
2010-12-28 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rates are very low
2010-12-28 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: low rates means lots of money
2010-12-28 16:57:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, but rising against the pomo push
2010-12-28 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of money means declines can be absorbed
2010-12-28 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a short term technical phenomenon
2010-12-28 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't a secret that POMO was going to happen
2010-12-28 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you probably had a lot of confidence in buying the product prior to the announcement
2010-12-28 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got highly "overbought"
2010-12-28 16:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news came out...and now we're highly "oversold"
2010-12-28 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with technical wanna be's playing the scare card
2010-12-28 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I say bottom
2010-12-28 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 6 week rally in front of us
2010-12-28 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe coming from equities as the money from bonds have pushed us up during their sell off
2010-12-28 17:00:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that was my next question
2010-12-28 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allocation - back and forth like a pendulum
2010-12-28 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is historic levels of liquidity
2010-12-28 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it keeps pushing forward
2010-12-28 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't actually "leave the market"
2010-12-28 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just gets pushed around
2010-12-28 17:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sloshing around
2010-12-28 17:01:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I agree bonds will rally, but I think it will cost equities a bit
2010-12-28 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the swipe of an arm in a filled up bath tub
2010-12-28 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might
2010-12-28 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I just implied that
2010-12-28 17:01:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-28 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since there is so much out there
2010-12-28 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities may not feel any change in direction quickly
2010-12-28 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-12-28 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more natural thing that will happen here is that money will move from commodities into debt
2010-12-28 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of "overvaluation" there, isn't there?
2010-12-28 17:02:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, gold looks strong here-to me
2010-12-28 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the FED hasn't stopped their accommodative policy
2010-12-28 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as interest rates remain low
2010-12-28 17:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Gold will continue to climb
2010-12-28 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has to
2010-12-28 17:03:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems like it broke out North, no?
2010-12-28 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's gold's function to act as an excess reserve
2010-12-28 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to look...one sec
2010-12-28 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ascending triangle
2010-12-28 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: found support on the 20 day EMA
2010-12-28 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no SAR buy as yet
2010-12-28 17:04:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, silver is almost rabid
2010-12-28 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 13 day RSI continues to say that the trend is up
2010-12-28 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new closing high on Silver
2010-12-28 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being that it's the poor man's gold
2010-12-28 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will always get its due attention
2010-12-28 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2010-12-28 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have an ADX indicator?
2010-12-28 17:05:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2010-12-28 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply an 8 day ADX to the daily silver chart
2010-12-28 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it gave an uptrend signal today
2010-12-28 17:06:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-12-28 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 13 day is still correcting
2010-12-28 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's at the 30 level where we usually see bounces
2010-12-28 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: poor JPM
2010-12-28 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-12-28 17:07:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2010-12-28 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: c'mon...they still can't be hedging here
2010-12-28 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are
2010-12-28 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a state I want them to buy
2010-12-28 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2010-12-28 17:08:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet that
2010-12-28 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: JPM is really in trouble here
2010-12-28 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have accounts with them
2010-12-28 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they swallowed Washington Mutual
2010-12-28 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-12-28 17:08:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hmmm
2010-12-28 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as of February 8th they are going to start charging monthly service fees for both personal and business banking
2010-12-28 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to forgo the charge, you have to have $5000 in personal and $7500 in a business account
2010-12-28 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know what drugs they're taking
2010-12-28 17:09:25 [Message] orange -> Chat: BOA already started that
2010-12-28 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but WM had its business based on the small guy and always free
2010-12-28 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are going to lose a TON of business
2010-12-28 17:10:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I had a business act at WM, as well
2010-12-28 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes you wonder about Jamie Diamond...the so called wiz kid of Wall Street
2010-12-28 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...there's going to be a point in which these mega banks are going to lose everything and everyone except the institutions
2010-12-28 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to that a possible bad trade in silver (and Lord knows what else) and you don't know what may happen if we have another slip up again
2010-12-28 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2010-12-28 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is up
2010-12-28 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-28 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCSUM's continue to show the bulls struggling here
2010-12-28 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the short term trend of both remain bullish
2010-12-28 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM is now testing its November highs
2010-12-28 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it can move above them
2010-12-28 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the breadth side
2010-12-28 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we won't have to worry too much about a price top for several weeks
2010-12-28 17:13:52 [Message] orange -> Chat: Does the sentiment indicators bother you at all?
2010-12-28 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe March
2010-12-28 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-12-28 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not a big fan of sentiment indicators
2010-12-28 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a discussion on this last Thursday
2010-12-28 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem is
2010-12-28 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pollee's can and will say anything that pleases them
2010-12-28 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's what they do with their money that is the real sentiment poll
2010-12-28 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and besides
2010-12-28 17:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with nothing really out there to compete with stocks right now
2010-12-28 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why else wouldn't you be bullish?
2010-12-28 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it a caution?
2010-12-28 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we must respect anything and everything in what they MAY imply
2010-12-28 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the trend of money flow reverses
2010-12-28 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment can stay at extremes just like oscillators can
2010-12-28 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...they can correct
2010-12-28 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there hasn't been too much bad news out there as well
2010-12-28 17:17:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will gold not compete?
2010-12-28 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have to consider who's being polled
2010-12-28 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is the front runner
2010-12-28 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and working on a different plateau
2010-12-28 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities trail
2010-12-28 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like climbing a mountain
2010-12-28 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is your leader
2010-12-28 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed by commodities
2010-12-28 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: debt
2010-12-28 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then stocks bring up the rear
2010-12-28 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what gold is doing now
2010-12-28 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what elevation it is on the mountain
2010-12-28 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks won't see until they play catch up
2010-12-28 17:19:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: golds just had a small correction-will equities follow that?
2010-12-28 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...in 18 months
2010-12-28 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as soon as 12
2010-12-28 17:19:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-12-28 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not now
2010-12-28 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is consistency to all of this
2010-12-28 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have SEEN this going on now for 6 months
2010-12-28 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rules don't change
2010-12-28 17:20:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, never
2010-12-28 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "you must unlearn what you have learned" - Yoda
2010-12-28 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what stimulates gold now...is POMO (partially)
2010-12-28 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that stimulation will have to go through the financial system to wind up with equities
2010-12-28 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it
2010-12-28 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: takes
2010-12-28 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time
2010-12-28 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not immediate
2010-12-28 17:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can try to change the course of a river
2010-12-28 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the river will always find a way to return to its natural path
2010-12-28 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one can alter it
2010-12-28 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can build a dam or try to re-direct it
2010-12-28 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will have to release whatever the dam is holding back or..the dam will burst
2010-12-28 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to embrace, isn't it?
2010-12-28 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but think of it this way
2010-12-28 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been doing these chats since 2004
2010-12-28 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen how money has flowed from each asset class over this same time period with a high amount of consistency
2010-12-28 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it IS what makes the markets go
2010-12-28 17:24:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, and over my 35 years of trading-same
2010-12-28 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you have proof like this
2010-12-28 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you never hear of inconsistencies on this
2010-12-28 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's not to embrace the theory?
2010-12-28 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just have to dump what we've taught by those who believe they know what they're talking about
2010-12-28 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the main reason why we trade technically anyway, right?
2010-12-28 17:25:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-28 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this fundamental idea of POMO (for example) having an immediate impact on the direction of the equity markets just doesn't wash
2010-12-28 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at it another way
2010-12-28 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has this methodology of excess liquidity moving from gold to commodities to debt to equities ever been questioned?
2010-12-28 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has there been a time when it hasn't worked?
2010-12-28 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2010-12-28 17:27:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not by me, no
2010-12-28 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so stop listening to no nothing news reporters and newsletter writers who take your money and give you nothing of substance in return
2010-12-28 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was saying that in the kindest way
2010-12-28 17:29:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I haven't seen cnbc in 15 years
2010-12-28 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-12-28 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're fun to watch for sentiment
2010-12-28 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as you separate the two
2010-12-28 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing wrong with getting as much information as possible
2010-12-28 17:30:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: loved FNN, much nicer
2010-12-28 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must learn to apply any knowledge within a specific context
2010-12-28 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-12-28 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you old person you
2010-12-28 17:30:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Bollinger-a bit better than these LOL
2010-12-28 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still have old tapes of the daily market clacker boards from KWHY
2010-12-28 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck
2010-12-28 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remember runners at the PSE
2010-12-28 17:31:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2010-12-28 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they would change prices with chalk
2010-12-28 17:31:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2010-12-28 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haaaa...the olden days
2010-12-28 17:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-28 17:31:42 [Message] orange -> Chat: really ?
2010-12-28 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really what?
2010-12-28 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume MCSUM's
2010-12-28 17:32:13 [Message] orange -> Chat: when were chalk boards no longer used?
2010-12-28 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is to watch if we move above the November highs
2010-12-28 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do...it doesn't matter how bullish sentiment is...money is saying that we're going higher
2010-12-28 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm...
2010-12-28 17:32:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: MCO wise?
2010-12-28 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the old PSE building on Spring street in LA
2010-12-28 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had chalk boards all around (and above) the trading floor
2010-12-28 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they moved to the building on 3rd off the Harbor Fwy
2010-12-28 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they went to computers
2010-12-28 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they started to phase them in around...I think...1985
2010-12-28 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they had to get caught up with the NYSE
2010-12-28 17:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we were trading more in IBM in '85 than we used to trade in total
2010-12-28 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still remember when the market traded over a million shares
2010-12-28 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we used to trade something like 90,000 shares a day when I started
2010-12-28 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...??
2010-12-28 17:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we trade billions
2010-12-28 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simpler time to be sure
2010-12-28 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Lew
2010-12-28 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about last week
2010-12-28 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO isn't as important right now as the MCSUM is
2010-12-28 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are in an intermediate term uptrend
2010-12-28 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing then when a trending oscillator of this same degree tops out will give us our inside look as to whether we're reversing or not
2010-12-28 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're trending
2010-12-28 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO doesn't have as much predictive value at this point
2010-12-28 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll watch it, of course
2010-12-28 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the more important tool as to knowing if a change in the direction of the advancing price structure is upon us, and if it is, what kind of amplitude to expect with respect to prices, only the MCSUM can tell us this
2010-12-28 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's our focus
2010-12-28 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it doesn't matter what time period you trade
2010-12-28 17:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (as you have seen for yourself over the last 4 weeks)
2010-12-28 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML internals are leading the large caps higher here
2010-12-28 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we start to see the SML show some sluggishness
2010-12-28 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then see the MID follow that lead
2010-12-28 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...but the trend is up until PROVEN otherwise
2010-12-28 17:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are mixed but overall neutral
2010-12-28 17:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX STVO is now neutral
2010-12-28 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the others are bullish, but not frothy
2010-12-28 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow VTO is now "overbought"
2010-12-28 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the others are just treading water
2010-12-28 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no sign there of any weakening
2010-12-28 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .79
2010-12-28 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (still some nice buying going on there)
2010-12-28 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here goes the NYSE Open 10...now at .93 and moving towards "oversold
2010-12-28 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the Citibank anomaly has past
2010-12-28 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the 21 day TRIN is highly "overbought" now
2010-12-28 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, more anything we've looked at today, suggests that we need a rest here
2010-12-28 17:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this could be a churn
2010-12-28 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a quick sell off
2010-12-28 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it won't trend
2010-12-28 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2010-12-28 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2010-12-28 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral there
2010-12-28 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .86
2010-12-28 17:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2010-12-28 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...overall...the market is neutral currently
2010-12-28 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that we're not too hot, not too cold
2010-12-28 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buying continues to support the uptrend
2010-12-28 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're starting to see some soft spots (NDX) showing up now
2010-12-28 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like a full set of armor
2010-12-28 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe part of it has a clink in it
2010-12-28 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's annoying
2010-12-28 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not enough to bruise
2010-12-28 17:46:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: VST, pattern bothers me here
2010-12-28 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that...the bulls remain in control of the pattern
2010-12-28 17:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...don't let it bother too much until next week
2010-12-28 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can worry (if you want to)
2010-12-28 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-28 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on what I've seen tonight
2010-12-28 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't expect anything exciting to happen for the rest of the week
2010-12-28 17:47:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm long gold stocks from the lows a few days ago, just behaving LOL
2010-12-28 17:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-28 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: copper's at all time highs
2010-12-28 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder how FCX is doing
2010-12-28 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow 118!
2010-12-28 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doubled in 6 months
2010-12-28 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should a - could a - would a
2010-12-28 17:49:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great chart
2010-12-28 17:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just riding the trend higher
2010-12-28 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-28 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow we'll try to look at the sectors
2010-12-28 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have enough time to do so
2010-12-28 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Matt
2010-12-28 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you haven't done so already
2010-12-28 17:50:33 [Message] orange -> Chat: already did =)
2010-12-28 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have the time
2010-12-28 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might want to read the scripts from last week...especially Thursday
2010-12-28 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's some good discussion there
2010-12-28 17:51:03 [Message] orange -> Chat: yea, ill take a look at that
2010-12-28 17:51:09 [Message] orange -> Chat: i didn't think there was a chat last Thursday
2010-12-28 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we had Tuesday, Wednesday (to make up for my vacation), and Thursday
2010-12-28 17:51:55 [Message] orange -> Chat: ill review them, was pretty busy with work before the holidays
2010-12-28 17:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2010-12-28 17:52:07 [Message] orange -> Chat: signed up at decision point, so i should be able to follow better
2010-12-28 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I figured that's been the reason why you haven't been in the chat of late
2010-12-28 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excellent
2010-12-28 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're able to come tomorrow
2010-12-28 17:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll show you around
2010-12-28 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but try to familiarize yourself later
2010-12-28 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..anything else?
2010-12-28 17:53:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx!
2010-12-28 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2010-12-28 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-12-28 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...chat tomorrow
2010-12-28 17:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'll talk to you then
2010-12-28 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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