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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-22 16:00:14 fib1618: good day
2015-12-22 16:00:17 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-22 16:14:54 tuna: think I learned something important last night, was focusing on intraday lows vs closing price re divergence
2015-12-22 16:14:55 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-12-22 16:15:14 rite01: I have question before we get started
2015-12-22 16:15:18 fib1618: go
2015-12-22 16:15:40 rite01: When get to SPX what's Probability a zero line snapback short SPX  today at close tomorrow bring in price & If not why not?
2015-12-22 16:16:09 fib1618: OK...we'll address that when we get there
2015-12-22 16:16:15 fib1618: what did you learn Joe?
2015-12-22 16:16:21 rite01: sounds great
2015-12-22 16:16:38 tuna: closing prices when looking at divergences
2015-12-22 16:16:56 fib1618: with comparison to the MCO readings?
2015-12-22 16:17:01 tuna: yes
2015-12-22 16:17:04 fib1618: yes...
2015-12-22 16:17:06 fib1618: remember
2015-12-22 16:17:11 fib1618: that we're dealing with close only data when working with this information
2015-12-22 16:17:16 fib1618: because of this
2015-12-22 16:17:35 fib1618: it's far better to make divergent comparisons in a like method
2015-12-22 16:17:48 fib1618: when both buyers and sellers have settled for the day
2015-12-22 16:18:13 tuna: yes made a separate chart list: line on close
2015-12-22 16:18:19 fib1618: yes
2015-12-22 16:18:37 fib1618: we also touched on this on Monday as well
2015-12-22 16:18:51 fib1618: with the SML not providing our divergence
2015-12-22 16:19:00 fib1618: so in order for the market to trend
2015-12-22 16:19:22 fib1618: it's good to keep in mind that it's an "all for one and one for all" scenario
2015-12-22 16:19:44 fib1618: sort of like having your engine inline with its cylinders
2015-12-22 16:19:46 tuna: otherwise chop
2015-12-22 16:19:51 fib1618: if any are out of sync
2015-12-22 16:19:53 fib1618: we chop
2015-12-22 16:20:12 fib1618: OK...let's get to work
2015-12-22 16:20:39 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that we did get buyer follow through today
2015-12-22 16:20:52 fib1618: as the NYSE CO breadth MCO was able to not only take out last week's high point
2015-12-22 16:21:16 fib1618: but also wound up closing above the zero line for the first time in 4 weeks
2015-12-22 16:21:38 fib1618: this is a usual and customary occurrence
2015-12-22 16:22:10 fib1618: where, on an historic basis, the MCO tends to stay either above or below the zero line for a 4-6 week period
2015-12-22 16:22:45 fib1618: today's higher high in the MCO also triggered our bull divergence point from last Friday
2015-12-22 16:22:51 fib1618: but being that it was only slight
2015-12-22 16:23:16 fib1618: this is probably part of a far larger bottoming process that still has some additional backing and filling still yet ahead of us
2015-12-22 16:23:58 fib1618: for now...we'll call it part of the textural foundation that we like to see in order for prices to trend higher later on
2015-12-22 16:24:17 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2015-12-22 16:24:32 fib1618: and we see that both the 10% and 5% Trends remain below their zero line
2015-12-22 16:24:51 fib1618: and when the components and the MCO disagree as to their being north or south of neutral
2015-12-22 16:24:59 fib1618: this suggests that we are in a corrective process
2015-12-22 16:25:39 fib1618: and that any further price advance from here is to relieve some sort of previous "oversold" imbalance
2015-12-22 16:25:47 fib1618: keeping in mind that we just had OPEX
2015-12-22 16:26:25 fib1618: you can be sure that a lot of stock that was accumulated on Friday that will need to be distributed to the public
2015-12-22 16:26:43 fib1618: and the only way to do that is to raise prices in order to stimulate buying
2015-12-22 16:26:45 fib1618: to wit
2015-12-22 16:26:55 fib1618: it's not people buying that make prices move higher
2015-12-22 16:27:04 fib1618: it's prices moving higher that make people buy
2015-12-22 16:27:12 fib1618: same in the opposite direction
2015-12-22 16:27:20 fib1618: it's not people selling that make prices move lower
2015-12-22 16:27:29 fib1618: it's prices moving lower that make people sell
2015-12-22 16:27:43 fib1618: a concept that is sometimes lost by many a trader
2015-12-22 16:28:00 fib1618: and in particular
2015-12-22 16:28:15 fib1618: one who is emotionally tied to their position
2015-12-22 16:28:25 rite01: like rising Real Estate rates spur at increase in sales at least short term
2015-12-22 16:28:41 fib1618: correct
2015-12-22 16:28:48 fib1618: again..all of this is supply and DEMAND
2015-12-22 16:29:12 fib1618: and the only way people get off their indecision is when they believe something is getting away from them
2015-12-22 16:29:16 fib1618: and why
2015-12-22 16:29:31 fib1618: 99% of the trading public don't buy at the lows
2015-12-22 16:29:34 fib1618: or sell at the highs
2015-12-22 16:29:57 fib1618: a reaction needs to take place in order to put the wheels into action
2015-12-22 16:30:28 fib1618: as we're always thinking..."we must be near a bottom, and I don't want to sell there"
2015-12-22 16:30:29 fib1618: or
2015-12-22 16:30:51 fib1618: "we must be near a top, so I don't want to get trapped"
2015-12-22 16:31:22 fib1618: this is the kind of mass behavior that makes a methodology such as Elliott Wave important
2015-12-22 16:32:07 fib1618: as the labeling of a pattern is more in tune to market psychology than just using divergence techniques
2015-12-22 16:32:13 fib1618: they're important, yes
2015-12-22 16:32:33 fib1618: but it's mass psychology that is the backbone of this kind of analysis
2015-12-22 16:32:43 fib1618: we had a good example of that earlier this month
2015-12-22 16:33:13 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-12-22 16:33:27 fib1618: and here we see that we also duplicated what the CO data shows
2015-12-22 16:33:46 fib1618: but note the additional strength seen in both the MCO and its components in comparison
2015-12-22 16:34:06 fib1618: this then suggests that the interest rate sensitive issues are continuing to improve
2015-12-22 16:34:57 fib1618: and it's this broader market indication of strength that helps in knowing what may be a longer term bottom process from that of a reflex that would end in failure
2015-12-22 16:35:06 fib1618: remember from this past weekend that the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line closed at all time highs
2015-12-22 16:35:50 fib1618: and it's this basket of stocks that are the leading indication of how buoyant the underlying strength in the market actually is
2015-12-22 16:36:09 fib1618: as it PROMISES us that we will see higher equity prices in the not too distant future as long as it continues to make these higher cumulative highs
2015-12-22 16:36:48 fib1618: now..the initial thought process of the Bond CEF's closing at new highs this past weekend
2015-12-22 16:37:18 fib1618: would be that money was moving in a defensive nature into Bonds as equities collapsed
2015-12-22 16:37:31 fib1618: so having the NYSE Composite now leading the CO to the upside
2015-12-22 16:38:17 fib1618: shows us that this is more than just being defensive as one would think that money would back off if a hard decline in equities had not materialized
2015-12-22 16:38:27 fib1618: but being that it continues to move into this asset class
2015-12-22 16:38:47 fib1618: further suggests that future interest rate increases are becoming more and more less likely
2015-12-22 16:38:49 fib1618: now...
2015-12-22 16:39:41 fib1618: having the recent advantage of the Investment Grade and Junk Bond A/D lines moving forward will give us increased insight into this area of analysis
2015-12-22 16:39:58 fib1618: so as long as the Bond CEF's continue to rise
2015-12-22 16:40:08 fib1618: if we start seeing this spread out to the IG's
2015-12-22 16:40:16 fib1618: and especially to the Junk arena
2015-12-22 16:40:44 fib1618: this would then whisper to us that the liquidity pool is starting to rise again
2015-12-22 16:40:47 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-12-22 16:41:39 fib1618: then, eventually, gold will also start to rise once any excesses that may be introduced have nowhere to go as the usual tributaries reach their fairly valued status
2015-12-22 16:42:02 fib1618: and this would explain the recent firmness in the PM issues over the last month
2015-12-22 16:42:10 fib1618: again...
2015-12-22 16:42:52 fib1618: all of this must work in tandem in order for these same supply and demand factors become a reality
2015-12-22 16:43:09 fib1618: look at existing home sales today
2015-12-22 16:43:12 fib1618: UGLY
2015-12-22 16:43:32 fib1618: and the market took its cue from that
2015-12-22 16:43:41 fib1618: remember
2015-12-22 16:43:59 fib1618: our job is not to figure out why money is moving in or out of specific investment
2015-12-22 16:44:17 fib1618: that answer will come later on
2015-12-22 16:44:46 fib1618: we just follow the bigger sums of money as, in theory, it knows what it likes...and money likes to make more money
2015-12-22 16:45:35 fib1618: notice also how we found pattern support at the -250 level on the NYSE Composite MCSUM today
2015-12-22 16:45:56 fib1618: further proving how important these natural areas of support or resistance really are
2015-12-22 16:46:39 fib1618: so any follow through on Wednesday will allow this MCSUM to challenge its gap resistance zone
2015-12-22 16:47:09 fib1618: which are at the MCO lows of 12/14
2015-12-22 16:47:24 fib1618: and because of our moving above the zero line
2015-12-22 16:47:48 fib1618: this now increases the odds that we're going to remain buoyant through the rest of this week
2015-12-22 16:47:54 fib1618: and likely through all of next week as well
2015-12-22 16:48:02 fib1618: the important thing that remains are the highs of the beginning of December
2015-12-22 16:48:25 fib1618: for until this level is taken out
2015-12-22 16:48:45 fib1618: we won't be able to move above the price tops of last week
2015-12-22 16:49:11 fib1618: which would then keep the idea of a possible SOB pattern working into the beginning of next year
2015-12-22 16:49:31 fib1618: and while we're on the subject
2015-12-22 16:49:52 fib1618: I put up the first 3 weeks of the January schedule today
2015-12-22 16:50:08 fib1618: the first week of January we will have another Monday/Tuesday format
2015-12-22 16:50:14 fib1618: the following week will be Thursday only
2015-12-22 16:50:34 fib1618: and the following week, which includes January OPEX, we'll have 3 sessions
2015-12-22 16:51:03 fib1618: I've left the last week of January open as I may have to make another business trip
2015-12-22 16:51:14 fib1618: so you can review the dates at your leisure
2015-12-22 16:51:37 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-12-22 16:51:44 fib1618: and here too we moved up and through the zero line today
2015-12-22 16:51:47 fib1618: not only that
2015-12-22 16:52:09 fib1618: but we also moved up above the last area of momentum divergence in the MCO
2015-12-22 16:52:18 fib1618: this now secures a price low for now
2015-12-22 16:52:32 fib1618: and this should carry through for the next week or two
2015-12-22 16:52:40 fib1618: looking at the components though
2015-12-22 16:52:56 fib1618: and we see that, like the NYSE CO data, both remain below their zero lines
2015-12-22 16:53:06 fib1618: so we're not trending here
2015-12-22 16:53:15 fib1618: but we're seeing corrective action
2015-12-22 16:54:17 fib1618: which can be good for another 100 points to the upside in the NASDAQ Composite and still would be no damage to this corrective forecast
2015-12-22 16:54:27 fib1618: but it will blow out the put speculators of the last few days
2015-12-22 16:54:57 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-12-22 16:55:05 fib1618: and here we also moved back above the zero line as well
2015-12-22 16:55:13 fib1618: but we did not take out last week's high point
2015-12-22 16:55:17 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-12-22 16:55:31 fib1618: and we generated a crossover buy signal today
2015-12-22 16:55:33 fib1618: however
2015-12-22 16:55:51 fib1618: until last week's highs in the NDX MCO are taken out
2015-12-22 16:56:14 fib1618: we should be trade on the cautious side of things at this stage
2015-12-22 16:56:39 fib1618: especially since we're likely to have low volume for the next 2-3 trading days
2015-12-22 16:56:52 fib1618: note also
2015-12-22 16:57:10 fib1618: that, so far, we're finding near zero line support in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2015-12-22 16:57:18 fib1618: so we can't get too bearish here
2015-12-22 16:57:50 fib1618: as there are enough indications right now that the balance of power might be shifting from negative to positive
2015-12-22 16:57:57 fib1618: even if it's only for a short term time frame
2015-12-22 16:58:30 fib1618: higher high close today in the SPX breadth MCO
2015-12-22 16:58:40 fib1618: and a crossover buy in the components as well
2015-12-22 16:59:02 fib1618: being that we're "this close" to the highs seen at the beginning of the month
2015-12-22 16:59:29 fib1618: allows us not to rush to judgement as yet as to how important this new buy signal may provide moving forward
2015-12-22 16:59:37 tuna: does a crossover buy have to be above the zero line?
2015-12-22 16:59:49 fib1618: we can crossover's below the zero line as well
2015-12-22 16:59:57 fib1618: we've seen that already in the NYSE data
2015-12-22 17:00:00 fib1618: however
2015-12-22 17:00:30 fib1618: the important point is that both the MCO and the Components must be on the same side of zero in order for prices to have the opportunity to trend
2015-12-22 17:00:38 fib1618: so in the SPX...we have that
2015-12-22 17:01:05 fib1618: but it might be tipped toward traders evening up going into the end of the year as well
2015-12-22 17:01:17 rite01: called a negative buy crossover isn't it?
2015-12-22 17:01:18 fib1618: if, however, we see higher highs above the December peaks in both
2015-12-22 17:01:27 fib1618: then we'll have something to sink our teeth into
2015-12-22 17:01:40 fib1618: if both the components are below the zero line
2015-12-22 17:01:50 fib1618: and the 10% moves above the 5%
2015-12-22 17:01:57 fib1618: we call it a positive cross
2015-12-22 17:02:23 fib1618: as it means that the 19 day EMA is braking faster than the 39 day EMA to the downside
2015-12-22 17:02:52 fib1618: and the only way that can happen is if the A/D line being measured is showing better (in this case) upside amplitude
2015-12-22 17:02:55 fib1618: which means
2015-12-22 17:03:01 fib1618: better breadth ratios
2015-12-22 17:03:09 fib1618: so...looking at what we have today
2015-12-22 17:03:36 fib1618: my guess is that the A/D line was strongly positive for this to occur
2015-12-22 17:03:38 fib1618: let me check
2015-12-22 17:04:11 fib1618: NYSE was 3.16:1
2015-12-22 17:04:26 fib1618: I don't have the SPX data handy
2015-12-22 17:05:19 fib1618: but it was strong enough to slow the rate of descent in the 19 day EMA to a point in which, in comparison to the 39 day EMA, is declining slower than it was
2015-12-22 17:05:28 fib1618: now...
2015-12-22 17:05:35 fib1618: when the 10% moves above the zero line
2015-12-22 17:05:44 fib1618: it means that the 19 day EMA has turned up
2015-12-22 17:06:00 fib1618: same with the 5% Trend with respect to the 39 day EMA
2015-12-22 17:06:42 fib1618: with the MCO acting as the arbitrator as to how fast this difference is speed is taking place
2015-12-22 17:06:59 fib1618: so today was a good day
2015-12-22 17:07:09 fib1618: but it's part of a bigger process
2015-12-22 17:07:16 fib1618: as we now have the development of texture
2015-12-22 17:07:28 fib1618: how far this takes us is still not known for sure
2015-12-22 17:07:41 fib1618: but we can come up with simple scenarios
2015-12-22 17:07:44 fib1618: like yesterday
2015-12-22 17:08:13 fib1618: the balance of power suggested that we would have a zero line snapback in many of the MCO's
2015-12-22 17:08:21 fib1618: and this would be part of filling last Friday's downside price gap
2015-12-22 17:08:50 fib1618: and we fulfilled that expectation today
2015-12-22 17:08:54 fib1618: now that it's filled
2015-12-22 17:09:02 fib1618: and the MCO's are back above the zero line
2015-12-22 17:09:11 fib1618: using a reasonable expectation
2015-12-22 17:09:37 fib1618: what do you think would be likely to take place next (on Wednesday)?
2015-12-22 17:10:21 rite01: a snapback in price
2015-12-22 17:10:26 fib1618: and...
2015-12-22 17:10:40 fib1618: why would price snapback?
2015-12-22 17:10:56 fib1618: breadth leads price
2015-12-22 17:11:30 rite01: MCSUM just starting to turn up as well as the adv/dec line
2015-12-22 17:11:37 fib1618: think simple
2015-12-22 17:11:45 fib1618: what usually happens after we cross the zero line?
2015-12-22 17:11:51 rite01: a snapback
2015-12-22 17:11:56 fib1618: there you go
2015-12-22 17:12:06 fib1618: test and retest
2015-12-22 17:12:12 fib1618: climb the ladder
2015-12-22 17:12:14 fib1618: pause
2015-12-22 17:12:16 fib1618: look around
2015-12-22 17:12:18 tuna: support
2015-12-22 17:12:21 fib1618: retest
2015-12-22 17:12:23 fib1618: there you go
2015-12-22 17:12:33 fib1618: it's all part of a process
2015-12-22 17:12:37 fib1618: it's not all that exciting
2015-12-22 17:12:45 rite01: but not always what is it we see that would tell us that?
2015-12-22 17:12:48 fib1618: but it provides us with a rhythm to work with
2015-12-22 17:13:01 fib1618: but you have to go with the percentages
2015-12-22 17:13:01 rite01: when it doesn't snap back
2015-12-22 17:13:09 fib1618: then if it doesn't snapback
2015-12-22 17:13:15 fib1618: what does that tell you?
2015-12-22 17:13:23 tuna: trend in place
2015-12-22 17:13:32 rite01: things have changed we have a trend
2015-12-22 17:13:45 fib1618: especially if we take out prior resistance points...yes
2015-12-22 17:13:50 rite01: yes
2015-12-22 17:13:55 fib1618: gold stars for both of you!
2015-12-22 17:13:58 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-22 17:14:08 fib1618: it's all a matter of repetition
2015-12-22 17:14:17 fib1618: the market pulses
2015-12-22 17:14:31 fib1618: and even the weak pulses tell us something about the patient
2015-12-22 17:14:42 fib1618: moving on
2015-12-22 17:15:24 fib1618: we now see that after the OEX breadth MCO took out its horizontal pattern highs last week
2015-12-22 17:15:28 fib1618: we moved to a higher high today
2015-12-22 17:15:54 fib1618: this then suggests that there is enough money moving into this basket of stocks where a short term trend can be created
2015-12-22 17:16:06 fib1618: but when we look under the hood
2015-12-22 17:16:41 fib1618: the components are still not in sync here to maintain this forecast
2015-12-22 17:16:55 fib1618: so, for now, we call this corrective activity
2015-12-22 17:17:15 fib1618: where the majority of market strength is sticking pretty much with the top 100 stocks that make up the SPX
2015-12-22 17:17:26 fib1618: keeping in mind
2015-12-22 17:17:59 fib1618: that it will take the greater majority of the 500 issues in order for the SPX breadth MCO to take out the early December high point
2015-12-22 17:18:25 fib1618: think of each index as a spoke of a wooden wagon wheel
2015-12-22 17:18:42 fib1618: if all the spokes are not sturdy enough to keep it from cracking or breaking
2015-12-22 17:18:54 fib1618: the total wheel will eventually fail to hold up the cart
2015-12-22 17:19:15 tuna: volume mco has barely taken out dec high in spx
2015-12-22 17:19:46 fib1618: this is why it's important to have all the "spokes" in good order in order to keep them from succumbing to rocks and ditches in the road ahead
2015-12-22 17:19:58 fib1618: so that's good news
2015-12-22 17:20:07 fib1618: but it's not enough to pull up the rest of the market
2015-12-22 17:20:19 fib1618: good news that volume plurality is stronger...it's leading
2015-12-22 17:20:26 fib1618: which is what prices work from
2015-12-22 17:21:00 fib1618: but it will need to show a clean break of this resistance so that prices can then travel without too much friction
2015-12-22 17:21:11 fib1618: what would also help here
2015-12-22 17:21:27 fib1618: is for the A/D and U/D lines themselves moving to higher highs
2015-12-22 17:21:36 fib1618: let me take a quick peak at that
2015-12-22 17:21:37 fib1618: one sec
2015-12-22 17:22:01 fib1618: the NYSE CO A/D has not
2015-12-22 17:22:05 fib1618: the NYSE Composite has
2015-12-22 17:22:50 fib1618: and the Total Market has
2015-12-22 17:22:57 fib1618: but nothing else
2015-12-22 17:23:06 fib1618: so we're still out of sync here
2015-12-22 17:23:23 fib1618: as we want all ships in the marina to rise together
2015-12-22 17:23:39 fib1618: the broader the tide moving in
2015-12-22 17:23:48 fib1618: the more ships (stocks) that will rise
2015-12-22 17:24:22 fib1618: we ideally want all the boats docked, especially at the back of the marina, to float with the others
2015-12-22 17:24:58 fib1618: volume lines are very sluggish here
2015-12-22 17:25:21 fib1618: as ALL of them moved to lower lows on Friday
2015-12-22 17:25:39 fib1618: so it's going to take a bit before we have enough internal strength to build on
2015-12-22 17:25:40 fib1618: for now
2015-12-22 17:25:52 fib1618: it would appear that we're in the process of attempting to lay a foundation
2015-12-22 17:25:56 fib1618: nothing more
2015-12-22 17:26:03 fib1618: but as traders
2015-12-22 17:26:28 fib1618: we now see that there has been enough money that has moved in that we're not likely to see lower prices below Friday's close for a week or two
2015-12-22 17:26:35 fib1618: and that's important information to know
2015-12-22 17:27:04 fib1618: especially if you're trading a platform that has time decay (options, futures)
2015-12-22 17:27:22 fib1618: one would be better served to move short at a later date
2015-12-22 17:27:36 fib1618: as we're not seeing enough weakness now to justify the trade
2015-12-22 17:27:47 fib1618: probability and outcome
2015-12-22 17:28:09 fib1618: that's what we strive for when working with this kind of analysis
2015-12-22 17:28:36 fib1618: higher high in the Dow breadth MCO
2015-12-22 17:28:43 fib1618: crossover buy on the components
2015-12-22 17:28:57 fib1618: and it looks like we're going to try to hold the Dow breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-12-22 17:29:23 fib1618: let's see if we can close the current gap resistance zone first
2015-12-22 17:29:42 fib1618: a full zero line snapback now complete with the MID breadth MCO
2015-12-22 17:30:02 fib1618: with the MID components also at their zero line
2015-12-22 17:30:08 fib1618: as well as the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-12-22 17:30:17 fib1618: so this market is now rated neutral
2015-12-22 17:30:23 fib1618: and looking for direction...who will take control?
2015-12-22 17:30:27 fib1618: no trade there for now
2015-12-22 17:31:04 fib1618: pretty much the same thing with the SML breadth MCO and its components
2015-12-22 17:31:29 fib1618: though the SML breadth MCSUM shows a slight advantage to the sellers
2015-12-22 17:31:35 fib1618: but given the strength we saw today
2015-12-22 17:31:50 fib1618: it wouldn't be too surprising to see the SML breadth MCSUM move back toward the zero line now
2015-12-22 17:32:08 fib1618: and that could take the rest of the year to do so
2015-12-22 17:32:12 fib1618: so no real trade there either
2015-12-22 17:32:53 fib1618: and a double upside breakout for the TM breadth MCO today
2015-12-22 17:33:03 fib1618: breaking both above horizontal resistance
2015-12-22 17:33:07 fib1618: and the zero line
2015-12-22 17:33:24 fib1618: this tells us that the price lows of Friday are likely to hold short term
2015-12-22 17:33:43 fib1618: this also triggers bull divergence in the pattern (as slight as it is)
2015-12-22 17:33:51 fib1618: plus we have a bottom above a bottom in place
2015-12-22 17:34:02 fib1618: looking at the components though
2015-12-22 17:34:08 fib1618: and they remain below their zero line
2015-12-22 17:34:14 fib1618: so between all this information
2015-12-22 17:34:21 fib1618: we had a wash out on Friday
2015-12-22 17:34:32 fib1618: but the bounce here, right now, is corrective in context
2015-12-22 17:34:48 fib1618: and not likely the start of a rising trend in prices
2015-12-22 17:35:02 fib1618: but that can't be ruled out either with the divergent trigger
2015-12-22 17:35:06 fib1618: so....
2015-12-22 17:35:16 fib1618: it was a good follow up day for the buyers
2015-12-22 17:36:03 fib1618: with the next technical expectation of some backing and filling in an effort to snapback to the MCO zero line on those indices that moved above this level today
2015-12-22 17:36:26 fib1618: while those that didn't have enough strength to do so...to fall back from this same zero line
2015-12-22 17:36:34 fib1618: many of the components remain negative
2015-12-22 17:37:04 fib1618: so the overall trading model here is that we're relieving "oversold" imbalances
2015-12-22 17:37:20 fib1618: and now that the all of the MCO's are at or near their zero lines
2015-12-22 17:37:35 fib1618: this tells us that both buyers and sellers are evened up
2015-12-22 17:37:48 fib1618: and are likely calling it a week and going home to be with their families
2015-12-22 17:38:02 fib1618: nope, not surprising at all
2015-12-22 17:38:12 fib1618: moving to the McClellan Sectors
2015-12-22 17:38:33 fib1618: snapback up to the zero line now complete on the XLY breadth MCO
2015-12-22 17:39:04 fib1618: as the XLY breadth MCSUM is finding support at the important -250 level (like magic)
2015-12-22 17:39:36 fib1618: XLY components remain negative
2015-12-22 17:39:53 fib1618: and that should put a cap on the durable goods numbers coming out in the morning
2015-12-22 17:40:15 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO continues to hand in there
2015-12-22 17:40:25 fib1618: and if it can get above the +50 level
2015-12-22 17:40:32 fib1618: then this would be a buy signal near term
2015-12-22 17:40:59 fib1618: with zero line support holding on the intermediate term trend of money flow as measured by the XLP breadth McClellan Summation Index
2015-12-22 17:41:23 fib1618: snapback also complete on the XLE breadth MCO
2015-12-22 17:41:45 fib1618: while the components are far below their zero lines at this time
2015-12-22 17:41:55 fib1618: showing how weak this sector continues to be
2015-12-22 17:42:29 fib1618: looks like we're going to need to punch through the $59 area in order to cleanse this one completely
2015-12-22 17:42:56 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO made a higher high today
2015-12-22 17:43:00 fib1618: that's the good news
2015-12-22 17:43:19 fib1618: but the bad news is that the XLF breadth MCSUM broke horizontal support on Friday
2015-12-22 17:43:32 fib1618: and this may be all the strength we're likely to see for a bit
2015-12-22 17:44:00 fib1618: if we can fill Friday's MCSUM gap, then we can look at this sector with a more positive eye
2015-12-22 17:44:42 fib1618: looks like we have the beginning of an upside power move in the XLV breadth MCO now
2015-12-22 17:44:57 fib1618: with a move above +50 securing this idea
2015-12-22 17:45:09 fib1618: with prices then able to run to their all time highs if accomplished
2015-12-22 17:45:43 fib1618: with a measured move above $72.50 of around $78
2015-12-22 17:46:12 fib1618: price action looks good as well on the XLV
2015-12-22 17:46:42 fib1618: with a gap up last Tuesday and then a snapback on Friday now behind us
2015-12-22 17:46:55 fib1618: so we have two of the defensive sectors firming here
2015-12-22 17:47:11 fib1618: and that's pretty regular when we see the market attempting to bottom
2015-12-22 17:47:45 fib1618: decent strength in the XLI breadth MCO and its components today
2015-12-22 17:48:31 fib1618: need to get above the early December MCO highs though in order to clear above last Thursday's hard reversal price bar
2015-12-22 17:49:27 fib1618: you can "feel" how the "boys on the floor" did their best in trying to get people to sell last Friday with that reversal bar
2015-12-22 17:49:40 fib1618: no takers though
2015-12-22 17:50:08 fib1618: pretty good action in the XLB breadth MCO as well
2015-12-22 17:50:35 fib1618: and this coming after the negative chart review on Monday (doesn't that always seem to happen?)
2015-12-22 17:51:18 fib1618: doesn't look like there's enough conviction behind the XLK breadth MCO's move today
2015-12-22 17:51:49 fib1618: like the shorts gave up, scooped up their marbles, and went home
2015-12-22 17:52:31 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCO looks to be following through on last weeks suggested course
2015-12-22 17:52:37 fib1618: snapback to the zero line now complete
2015-12-22 17:52:54 fib1618: and if we get a higher MCO high...may be worth a short term play there as well
2015-12-22 17:52:56 fib1618: so...
2015-12-22 17:53:02 fib1618: lots of churning here
2015-12-22 17:53:13 fib1618: with many relief rally's now behind us
2015-12-22 17:53:33 fib1618: it's not likely we'll get a firm grip on this two day bounce until next Monday
2015-12-22 17:54:12 fib1618: barely a change in the OBV data
2015-12-22 17:55:10 fib1618: showing that today's trading was more allocation moves than anything else
2015-12-22 17:55:13 fib1618: no money moving in
2015-12-22 17:55:16 fib1618: none moving out
2015-12-22 17:55:22 fib1618: churning
2015-12-22 17:55:40 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .58
2015-12-22 17:55:47 fib1618: there's your short covering
2015-12-22 17:55:55 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.14
2015-12-22 17:56:10 fib1618: and why it was difficult for the sellers to break prices south today
2015-12-22 17:56:24 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .81
2015-12-22 17:56:33 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.01
2015-12-22 17:56:41 fib1618: "yawn"
2015-12-22 17:56:51 fib1618: TM TRIN at .79
2015-12-22 17:57:00 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.07
2015-12-22 17:57:04 fib1618: so...
2015-12-22 17:57:21 fib1618: it would appear that positions, by and large, are pretty much evened up now
2015-12-22 17:57:43 fib1618: and that any moves in prices are likely to be narrow, choppy affairs
2015-12-22 17:57:48 fib1618: with no directional trend
2015-12-22 17:57:51 fib1618: at this point
2015-12-22 17:58:20 fib1618: the expectation is for the market to go through the motions
2015-12-22 17:58:24 fib1618: and because of that
2015-12-22 17:58:38 fib1618: it's probably better to call it a week and get ready for the holidays
2015-12-22 17:58:47 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-22 17:59:24 tuna: can you comment on the extreme TRIN from Thursday?
2015-12-22 17:59:32 fib1618: last Thursday?
2015-12-22 17:59:52 tuna: yes i think 3.2
2015-12-22 17:59:59 fib1618: we were figuring that most of it was expiration related
2015-12-22 18:00:03 fib1618: the purge
2015-12-22 18:00:12 fib1618: but as you know
2015-12-22 18:00:29 fib1618: it would be a bullish indication IF the A/D lines were rising
2015-12-22 18:00:43 fib1618: so we'll call it too far, too fast
2015-12-22 18:00:56 fib1618: and now we're relieving this imbalance of sells
2015-12-22 18:01:27 fib1618: it also sets up a "flag" point for what should be the eventual price lows sometime next month
2015-12-22 18:01:34 fib1618: at least at this point
2015-12-22 18:01:56 fib1618: a "flag" is the extreme to where we compare later selling (or buying) waves
2015-12-22 18:02:06 fib1618: if we diverge
2015-12-22 18:02:19 fib1618: then we know that all of the unwilling sellers (or buyers) are then out
2015-12-22 18:02:27 fib1618: with last Thursday's spike the willing sellers
2015-12-22 18:02:29 tuna: so look for a reading in what range?
2015-12-22 18:02:35 fib1618: hard to say
2015-12-22 18:02:45 fib1618: anything around 2.00 would be nice
2015-12-22 18:03:00 fib1618: but this is only part of the bigger puzzle
2015-12-22 18:03:27 fib1618: if it was that easy...everyone would be making money [smile]
2015-12-22 18:03:46 fib1618: it's like everything else
2015-12-22 18:03:55 fib1618: as humans, we may all generally look the same
2015-12-22 18:04:10 fib1618: but we come with different backgrounds and emotions
2015-12-22 18:04:25 fib1618: first let's get the BETS to rise a bit
2015-12-22 18:04:28 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-12-22 18:04:36 fib1618: let me check the number...one sec
2015-12-22 18:05:46 fib1618: -75 - holding steady
2015-12-22 18:06:11 fib1618: until the BETS moves back into neutral territory (-20 to +20)
2015-12-22 18:06:15 fib1618: the market environment will remain hostile
2015-12-22 18:06:35 fib1618: and not likely to see an advancing price sequence because of this
2015-12-22 18:06:49 fib1618: and that is the number one thing to know
2015-12-22 18:07:00 fib1618: don't worry
2015-12-22 18:07:08 fib1618: it's not going to do anything without us
2015-12-22 18:07:17 fib1618: there's plenty of time
2015-12-22 18:07:32 fib1618: and still a lot things that need to happen to turn the ship around
2015-12-22 18:07:42 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-22 18:08:21 fib1618: well...I would like to take a moment to thank you all for your participation this past year
2015-12-22 18:08:39 fib1618: and wish you all the best this holiday season
2015-12-22 18:08:56 fib1618: remember that we're doing Monday and Tuesday sessions again next week
2015-12-22 18:09:00 fib1618: and then we'll call it a year
2015-12-22 18:09:05 fib1618: with that said
2015-12-22 18:09:16 fib1618: everyone have a terrific rest of the week
2015-12-22 18:09:21 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Monday
2015-12-22 18:09:23 fib1618: good night
2015-12-22 18:12:18 rite01: Merry Christmas everyone!


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