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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,455
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-12-22 15:59:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Hawk have to had chance to make up charts Dave suggested yet?
2014-12-22 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-12-22 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-12-22 16:00:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Fine here and shorted GLD at the close with a close stop
2014-12-22 16:01:14 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I have not Rite
2014-12-22 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it did close below last week's lows
2014-12-22 16:02:38 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I've discovered a few things I did not know before that will help in the future but much more to learn
2014-12-22 16:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be a good play
2014-12-22 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such as?
2014-12-22 16:03:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I would not have gotten out last week
2014-12-22 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the week before?
2014-12-22 16:03:54 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes the week before
2014-12-22 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would suggest that you don't beat yourself up on that
2014-12-22 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good conservative play
2014-12-22 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had a profit
2014-12-22 16:04:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: right
2014-12-22 16:04:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: and I
2014-12-22 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and things were going beyond our blueprint
2014-12-22 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about on Thursday
2014-12-22 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a shame that the market had to flex its muscle to fully cleanse the system
2014-12-22 16:05:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I've noticed since putting up the suggested
2014-12-22 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just never know
2014-12-22 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: care to share?
2014-12-22 16:06:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: charts and back testing the IVE has only dropped below 5% once or twice since 2003 bottom when MCSUM is above 500
2014-12-22 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good to know
2014-12-22 16:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also remember
2014-12-22 16:06:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: That info would have kept me in the market 2 weeks ago
2014-12-22 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that a most of this is based on the position of the A/D line itself
2014-12-22 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE A/D line has been pumping into new all time highs since 2003
2014-12-22 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what I would do
2014-12-22 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2014-12-22 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2014-12-22 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you had emotion all around you
2014-12-22 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-22 16:08:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: My biggest enemy
2014-12-22 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing here that isn't a constant is discipline
2014-12-22 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other thing you learn in this business is...
2014-12-22 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once you discover something, for some reason, it all of sudden stops working
2014-12-22 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-22 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this knowledge
2014-12-22 16:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could had placed appropriate stops
2014-12-22 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the break of MCO divergence
2014-12-22 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you HAD to be defensive
2014-12-22 16:09:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What do you think about
2014-12-22 16:10:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: shorting for not sure how to phrase this
2014-12-22 16:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...gold's down another $5 after hours
2014-12-22 16:10:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-22 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are 3 positions you can choose
2014-12-22 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be long
2014-12-22 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be short
2014-12-22 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be in cash
2014-12-22 16:11:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Well I was thinking of
2014-12-22 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there is subheading under all
2014-12-22 16:11:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: shorting as a hedge because
2014-12-22 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that subheading is "hold"
2014-12-22 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you short
2014-12-22 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you borrow stock
2014-12-22 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you pay a price in borrowing
2014-12-22 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you are absolutely right about your timing
2014-12-22 16:12:18 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: right but it would no be for long
2014-12-22 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but how do you know if your timing is spot on?
2014-12-22 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what options are for
2014-12-22 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a small price to pay for "insurance"
2014-12-22 16:13:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How can I learn or where more on options
2014-12-22 16:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to buy an in the money put or call than to short or to go long
2014-12-22 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's insurance...just like if you buy insurance against a potential loss on your home, car or life
2014-12-22 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you
2014-12-22 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are only two choices
2014-12-22 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first is for income
2014-12-22 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's when you sell a covered call
2014-12-22 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "covered" meaning you own the stock and deliver it upon demand
2014-12-22 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other is for insurance only
2014-12-22 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you must understand that it's for a limited amount of time
2014-12-22 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not refundable...it can go to zero
2014-12-22 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my suggestion is...
2014-12-22 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have now linked Amazon to TW so that you can now look in the book store for an book on options
2014-12-22 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a specific title, I have none
2014-12-22 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe someone else would be able to give you a suggestion
2014-12-22 16:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe make a post on the main board for suggestions
2014-12-22 16:17:03 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Will do and Thanks Dave and guys for taking this time I needed it
2014-12-22 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2014-12-22 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-12-22 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold down $7
2014-12-22 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-22 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above the zero line last week
2014-12-22 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued its journey north today
2014-12-22 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now resides at just under the highs of late November
2014-12-22 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while remembering that will take the MCO to move above this same November level for prices to move into new all time high territory
2014-12-22 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a crossover buy signal in effect as well
2014-12-22 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has now turned up and moved to a +254 reading
2014-12-22 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where natural resistance should be seen near term
2014-12-22 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean
2014-12-22 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow through to the upside near term
2014-12-22 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will need to come with a move above the late November highs in the MCO
2014-12-22 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this all needs to work together to achieve a common objective
2014-12-22 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-12-22 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a small point change tonight
2014-12-22 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2014-12-22 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this MCO has a reading of +21
2014-12-22 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no real indication on which way this large move should go
2014-12-22 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are just slightly below the +25 level
2014-12-22 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the end November highs
2014-12-22 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the more reasonable expectation given what we've done in the last 4 trading days is for a simple snapback to or towards the MCO zero line
2014-12-22 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the NYSE CO MCO showing more strength than the composite at this time
2014-12-22 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might suggest that there is more buying of stocks right now as a prelude to the holiday season
2014-12-22 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and many money managers are likely to take off after tomorrow's trading day
2014-12-22 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-12-22 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2014-12-22 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday will be a half day to 1:00 Eastern
2014-12-22 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Friday will be a full day of trading
2014-12-22 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a repeat of this next week as well
2014-12-22 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-12-22 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it is also trailing the strength seen in the CO data
2014-12-22 16:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another thing that's important here
2014-12-22 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are still below the washout levels of last Tuesday...in other words...we still have MCSUM gap resistance still above current levels
2014-12-22 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this area is filled
2014-12-22 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to be somewhat defensive toward the market
2014-12-22 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we accelerate to the upside from here and close this MCSUM extension gap
2014-12-22 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then not only was last week's lows set a floor for the correctional sequence
2014-12-22 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more than likely
2014-12-22 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: set a floor in the ongoing trend to the upside
2014-12-22 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: similar to that of mid October
2014-12-22 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of year would then surprise a lot of people
2014-12-22 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would fit with our idea of a longer term cycle bottoming last week
2014-12-22 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-12-22 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after seeing little change on Friday
2014-12-22 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we gained a bit today
2014-12-22 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled the day with a reading of +24
2014-12-22 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still remain below the end November highs
2014-12-22 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the NYSE
2014-12-22 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be an important statement by the buyers if they can push this MCO to above those levels as well
2014-12-22 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would then clear the way to see the price pattern move into new recovery high territory
2014-12-22 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2014-12-22 16:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have the underlying support to stay there
2014-12-22 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-12-22 16:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that it is right up to its MCSUM gap resistance area
2014-12-22 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next couple of days are setting up for a potential statement day by the bulls if they can push up and through this resistance area in the MCSUM
2014-12-22 16:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-12-22 16:35:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It is seasonal strong here
2014-12-22 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have now finally cleared the early December highs
2014-12-22 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (traditionally, yes, it is a strong period)
2014-12-22 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should provide some near term support for the NASDAQ exchange of stocks in general
2014-12-22 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a crossover buy on the NDX components now
2014-12-22 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have joined the rest of the crowd
2014-12-22 16:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time closing highs in the SPX today
2014-12-22 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while closing at the highs of the day
2014-12-22 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this push was confirmed by the SPX breadth MCO as it moved above its early December highs
2014-12-22 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in order for prices to stay in all time high territory
2014-12-22 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the late November highs must also be taken out as well
2014-12-22 16:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...it would also be nice if we saw some back and fill here
2014-12-22 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe with everyone waiting for a pullback, will the market accommodate?
2014-12-22 16:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've seen this happen before where the market never looked back after an intense selling wave
2014-12-22 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that liquidity levels remain the highest in history
2014-12-22 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...we should never underestimate the underlying power of the current advancing price structure
2014-12-22 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the prior MCSUM's
2014-12-22 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the buyers are able to fill their MCSUM gaps
2014-12-22 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then another test of last week's lows is not necessary
2014-12-22 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as parabolic patterns give very little in the way of windows of opportunity
2014-12-22 16:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-12-22 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks like that we have now matched the beginning of December high point
2014-12-22 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls still need to see other buyers to belly up here if they're going to have any chance to break above the more important end of November highs
2014-12-22 16:44:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a fishhook would be nasty here...
2014-12-22 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2014-12-22 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's an astute observation as well
2014-12-22 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still could be a ledge
2014-12-22 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we know by experience
2014-12-22 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be it ledge of fishhook
2014-12-22 16:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that don't usually last past 4 trading days
2014-12-22 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE MCSUM's are in day 3
2014-12-22 16:46:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, tomorrow is pretty important
2014-12-22 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...especially going into a long weekend
2014-12-22 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday is liable to be a pump at the open...and then sideways the rest of the day
2014-12-22 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would probably associate trading this week and next like that of the Thanksgiving period
2014-12-22 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with pretty much the same volume pattern
2014-12-22 16:48:14 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Remember last week 2 Zweig's 9 to 1 days could helped. Well second was 8.2 but the first was 14.7
2014-12-22 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very true Mike
2014-12-22 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have end of year allocations as well
2014-12-22 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like I mentioned over the weekend in the Breadth Review
2014-12-22 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volatility should continue regardless
2014-12-22 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...I just realized that the Dow was up 155 today
2014-12-22 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like a new all time high close as well
2014-12-22 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be just 5 trading days ago there was talk of market crashes?
2014-12-22 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are back at new all time highs
2014-12-22 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't care who you are
2014-12-22 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must respect this kind of action
2014-12-22 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if you don't
2014-12-22 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you still feel like the market it topping
2014-12-22 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better think again
2014-12-22 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you wonder sometimes
2014-12-22 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times one can bang their head against a wall before the light goes on?
2014-12-22 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-12-22 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this new high in the Dow
2014-12-22 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have only barely met the minimum we need for this to happen on the Dow breadth MCO
2014-12-22 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not impressed
2014-12-22 16:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2014-12-22 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to watch how the Dow breadth MCSUM holds the +1000 level as it's doing right now
2014-12-22 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is impressive how the Dow has rallied some 900 points in less than a week
2014-12-22 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been told over the years
2014-12-22 16:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow only moves 900 points to the downside in this short amount of time
2014-12-22 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess this is different
2014-12-22 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-22 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of interest with the +1000 MCSUM level
2014-12-22 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also satisfies a snapback to what used to be overhead resistance in the Dow MCSUM
2014-12-22 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as a technician
2014-12-22 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow through to the upside from here would be a highly bullish event for this index of stocks
2014-12-22 16:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like jumping higher from a elevated platform that we've seen in a Mario Brothers game
2014-12-22 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much energy to move to higher highs when you're already half way there
2014-12-22 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also continues to move higher
2014-12-22 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like all of the other MCSUM's
2014-12-22 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains below the end of November MCO highs
2014-12-22 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also note
2014-12-22 16:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all of the MCO's are also within spitting distance now to reaching that challenge as well
2014-12-22 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a group
2014-12-22 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in full sync
2014-12-22 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have pounded the table time after time
2014-12-22 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes everyone to "heave ho" together in order to reach a specific goal
2014-12-22 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and speaking of this goal
2014-12-22 16:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already know that the SML breadth MCO already moved above this important end November MCO level last week
2014-12-22 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since that time
2014-12-22 16:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw a brief snapback on Friday to what used to be overhead resistance on that MCO
2014-12-22 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved to a higher high today
2014-12-22 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a bullish whisper that there is money continuing to support the small caps at current levels
2014-12-22 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this fundamental idea
2014-12-22 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can also move to higher highs themselves
2014-12-22 17:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we look at the SML price chart
2014-12-22 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we closed at the second highest price level in history today
2014-12-22 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2014-12-22 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-12-22 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that this higher high in the MCO
2014-12-22 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same kind of higher high that we've talked about all during the chat
2014-12-22 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was able to push the SML breadth MCSUM through its gap resistance zone today
2014-12-22 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-12-22 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see new all time price highs in the SML and RUT as soon as Tuesday
2014-12-22 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to stay there though
2014-12-22 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO will now have to move above the early November series of declining tops
2014-12-22 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this should occur over the next two weeks
2014-12-22 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the index becomes a strong buy
2014-12-22 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would also indicate that money is moving into the growth area to where continued price growth would result
2014-12-22 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the backbone of any major trend to the upside
2014-12-22 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine how many folks on Wall Street are probably not long right now waiting for either the second shoe to drop or for a pullback to climb on?
2014-12-22 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when does the market accommodate the majority?
2014-12-22 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2014-12-22 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also continues to trudge higher
2014-12-22 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM breadth MCSUM is now within 2 days of reaching its gap resistance levels
2014-12-22 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take a move above the end November highs in the TM breadth MCO to move up and through this same MCSUM resistance
2014-12-22 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get that tomorrow...and it should be a great rest of the year
2014-12-22 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...at least for the longs
2014-12-22 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-22 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market continues to defy the majority
2014-12-22 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who were led to believe the lower oil prices were some how a bearish indicator
2014-12-22 17:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in reality
2014-12-22 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that "smart money" is looking beyond any of the potential problems as it would relate on a global basis
2014-12-22 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and concentrating their focus on what the stock market lives and dies on...
2014-12-22 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: earnings
2014-12-22 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume side is looking
2014-12-22 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-12-22 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had new all time price highs in the XLY today
2014-12-22 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP
2014-12-22 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new recovery highs in the XLF
2014-12-22 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the MCO strength in the XLI!
2014-12-22 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has taken out the late November highs
2014-12-22 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because the XLI is so closely attached to the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-12-22 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a important development
2014-12-22 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new all time highs in the XLU as well
2014-12-22 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check something
2014-12-22 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the Dow Industrials and Utilities only
2014-12-22 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems the Dow Transports are lagging here
2014-12-22 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that with the cost of fuel as low as it is
2014-12-22 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be screaming higher
2014-12-22 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know the airlines are doing well
2014-12-22 17:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK - small point changes in both the NYSE CO and NYSE Composite volume MCO's
2014-12-22 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ volume MCO breaking north today
2014-12-22 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the NYSE volume MCO's
2014-12-22 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still need to move above the late November highs there as well
2014-12-22 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NYSE's
2014-12-22 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Composite volume MCSUM is now above it's zero line again
2014-12-22 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the CO is not
2014-12-22 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still
2014-12-22 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we like to see the Composite lead the Commons
2014-12-22 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also like to see volume keeping up with, or preferably, leading breadth to have a strong trend
2014-12-22 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know how things are going to work out with the next two weeks of holidays
2014-12-22 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we probably won't know the full impact of all this until 2 weeks from today
2014-12-22 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO is in lock step to the upside with the breadth MCO
2014-12-22 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is the SPX volume MCO compared to its breadth cousin
2014-12-22 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is the OEX and Dow
2014-12-22 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID volume MCO
2014-12-22 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also on the SML volume MCO
2014-12-22 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we are compressed near term
2014-12-22 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a seller, you don't want two things to happen
2014-12-22 17:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't short a quiet market
2014-12-22 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you don't short a market where volume is below average
2014-12-22 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going to be an interesting week
2014-12-22 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we see that the TM volume MCO plowed through its early December highs today
2014-12-22 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is getting more and more positive here
2014-12-22 17:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need one more push and we'll likely see new highs in about every index
2014-12-22 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are NOT climactic here
2014-12-22 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the STVO's are showing an overwhelming amount of up volume since last week
2014-12-22 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this is not short covering
2014-12-22 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like fresh allocations
2014-12-22 17:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the VTO's neutral for now
2014-12-22 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any upside follow through there would put us back in a strong uptrend condition
2014-12-22 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.05
2014-12-22 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95 and steady
2014-12-22 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2014-12-22 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now neutral at .91
2014-12-22 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .75
2014-12-22 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2014-12-22 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-12-22 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seems to be seeing good follow through to last weeks hard reversal
2014-12-22 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and seems to be picking up where it left off before the trip and fall
2014-12-22 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rogue waves like this can be tricky
2014-12-22 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it becomes a situation of "show me"
2014-12-22 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the cumulative charts
2014-12-22 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAAD is back up to its 200 day EMA resistance
2014-12-22 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: New All time highs in the NAUD
2014-12-22 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BETS at -20
2014-12-22 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash
2014-12-22 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're short here
2014-12-22 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard stops
2014-12-22 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this not the time to try to be a hero
2014-12-22 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the underlying tone continues to firm where one would expect some backing and filling first
2014-12-22 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we have a good day on Tuesday
2014-12-22 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BETS is likely to move to near zero
2014-12-22 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Canadian issues continue to weigh heavily on this indicator
2014-12-22 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if gold picks up where energy left off
2014-12-22 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a blood bath up north
2014-12-22 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...down under
2014-12-22 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-12-22 17:29:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Daily MCO reading
2014-12-22 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold rallying...now down $2.00
2014-12-22 17:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the RA?
2014-12-22 17:31:17 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: No MCO reading how far back do you go days back to gauge future prices
2014-12-22 17:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't
2014-12-22 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: future prices are based on today's numbers
2014-12-22 17:32:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Today's MCO to compare to back MCO readings 4 to 6 weeks for future price action
2014-12-22 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO doesn't actually forecast price action
2014-12-22 17:33:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It looks like it to me somewhat
2014-12-22 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what it does do is to let us know how much fuel there is to possibly project a price target
2014-12-22 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the actual price targets then come from the MCSUM
2014-12-22 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since "trends" are more intermediate term phenomenon then they are short term
2014-12-22 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the short term trend, that of 4-6 weeks, in the direction of money flow
2014-12-22 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the intermediate term trend, that of 4-12 weeks, in this same money flow dynamic
2014-12-22 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher or lower the fuel being consumed
2014-12-22 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster the rate of change
2014-12-22 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or slower
2014-12-22 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depending
2014-12-22 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have a specific question? maybe I'm missing what you're trying to understand
2014-12-22 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the question should be related directly to the chart action
2014-12-22 17:37:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes it is.  I'll rephrase the question in another session.  and phrase it better
2014-12-22 17:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...fair enough
2014-12-22 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: direct relation questions are always best
2014-12-22 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way we can't give a general answer
2014-12-22 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to confuse than help
2014-12-22 17:39:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It was I thought about tonight's readings MCO
2014-12-22 17:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2014-12-22 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2014-12-22 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you want to know if there are any new upside price targets?
2014-12-22 17:40:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: In the MCO's yes
2014-12-22 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2014-12-22 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not until we move above the end November highs
2014-12-22 17:41:07 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: All higher right
2014-12-22 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the point in which there is more thrust to can actually break away from a consolidation
2014-12-22 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this time
2014-12-22 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have no new targets - either higher or lower
2014-12-22 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only know that there is enough fuel right now to challenge the most recent price highs
2014-12-22 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2014-12-22 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break above the end November MCO highs
2014-12-22 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then, and only then, can we get new projections
2014-12-22 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SML
2014-12-22 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that I can figure
2014-12-22 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there
2014-12-22 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have the early November highs to need to be taken out for this to actually take place
2014-12-22 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2014-12-22 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take out the early November MCO highs in the SML
2014-12-22 17:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's good for around 70 points of upside action
2014-12-22 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know though
2014-12-22 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the challenge is likely to be a successful one
2014-12-22 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need CONFIRMATION
2014-12-22 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-22 17:44:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-12-22 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: It's good to read that you're absorbing this
2014-12-22 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a question like this one would had never come from you 2 months ago
2014-12-22 17:45:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right but for me
2014-12-22 17:46:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: it's always been two steps forward and one back kind of learning
2014-12-22 17:46:20 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: at least to the market
2014-12-22 17:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're doing fine
2014-12-22 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not something you can absorb in a couple of months
2014-12-22 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's an ongoing process
2014-12-22 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but believe me when I tell you
2014-12-22 17:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the light goes on...you will start to laugh
2014-12-22 17:47:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Learning that you really can not look at one chart and determine the overall trend
2014-12-22 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2014-12-22 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's poison
2014-12-22 17:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes a rising tide to float all ships
2014-12-22 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if your field of vision is myopic
2014-12-22 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you miss the greater scene
2014-12-22 17:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2014-12-22 17:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2014-12-22 17:49:05 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: nothing here...thanks
2014-12-22 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK then...let's all go have a great evening then
2014-12-22 17:49:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-12-22 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-12-22 17:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-12-22 17:49:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good Night All.

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