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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-22 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-22 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-22 16:01:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thanks, and you?
2011-12-22 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just finished, not more than 3 minutes ago, this years inventory
2011-12-22 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we just have to input the numbers
2011-12-22 16:02:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I used to hate doing inventory
2011-12-22 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pain...that's for sure
2011-12-22 16:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: took us 4 days
2011-12-22 16:03:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: about right, bummer
2011-12-22 16:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: used to take 10 days!
2011-12-22 16:03:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-12-22 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we used to have over 38,000 different SKU's
2011-12-22 16:03:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: whoa
2011-12-22 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now...less than 8000
2011-12-22 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-22 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as a point of reference
2011-12-22 16:04:49 [Message] gman -> Chat: sku?
2011-12-22 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got stopped out of my shorts today around noon time
2011-12-22 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SKU = Stock Keeping Unit
2011-12-22 16:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each item has its own item number
2011-12-22 16:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some products are the same item, but we offer it in maybe 50 colors
2011-12-22 16:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so each one is a separate SKU
2011-12-22 16:06:26 [Message] gman -> Chat: Ahhhh...makes sense
2011-12-22 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way we know what is or isn't selling
2011-12-22 16:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today you see this as bar-codes
2011-12-22 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't use bar-codes
2011-12-22 16:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're old fashioned
2011-12-22 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm happy with the trade...up about 5%
2011-12-22 16:07:25 [Message] gman -> Chat:
2011-12-22 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was up a ton more last week...but whatcha going to do?
2011-12-22 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's no questions, let me get DP up and we'll get started (and see if my stop was a good play)
2011-12-22 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess so
2011-12-22 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher again today
2011-12-22 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and took out the early December highs in the process
2011-12-22 16:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now clears the way for the MCSUM to possibly challenge its hesitation point just below the zero line from last week
2011-12-22 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the likelihood of another ledge or fishhook here has dramatically lessened
2011-12-22 16:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then means we must be on guard of a possible bottom here given that the MCSUM projected a price low sometime towards the end of December
2011-12-22 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a cross over buy signal today on the components
2011-12-22 16:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls are doing what they need to in order to hold support
2011-12-22 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved above its December highs
2011-12-22 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and besides the idea of the MCSUM now being able to challenge its early December ledge
2011-12-22 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher high here also suggests, since breadth leads price, that the early December price highs will also challenged if not taken out altogether
2011-12-22 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we are still dealing with a symmetrical triangle
2011-12-22 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its now up to the bears to wrestle back control
2011-12-22 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they might lose any control that they had last week
2011-12-22 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-12-22 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Summation Failure on the volume MCSUM's did not produce the expectation of a crash like event
2011-12-22 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the shelf life of such events are nearly always a small window of dates
2011-12-22 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we rallied hard on Tuesday
2011-12-22 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now follow through on the MCO to the upside
2011-12-22 16:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tight stops on all shorts should now be maintained
2011-12-22 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not closed altogether
2011-12-22 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it's going to be a least a week now before the bears have the opportunity to intercept the ball back from the bulls
2011-12-22 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a week, during a favorable holiday period, with all of the put buyers of the last 4 months dead and buried, with the VIX now in the low 20's, is not the kind of condition in which a bearish trend is likely to develop
2011-12-22 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we have (had?) "oversold" readings in the Open 10's
2011-12-22 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: low volume for the next 2 weeks...compression both internally and externally
2011-12-22 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-12-22 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being short here is becoming rather dangerous
2011-12-22 16:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2011-12-22 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Bond CEF and Preferred A/D lines continue to maintain a very bullish posture
2011-12-22 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that whenever, and wherever we eventually bottom, we're likely to see buoyant prices
2011-12-22 16:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: We have a Hurst cycle low due in this time period
2011-12-22 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, according to Doc, is at least a 4 1/2 year low
2011-12-22 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe a 9 year low
2011-12-22 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mix in the gawd awful sentiment
2011-12-22 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really...the lack of bearish follow through last week, and higher highs in the MCO today, is probably telling us that we need to be fully prepared for an upside surprise
2011-12-22 16:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though
2011-12-22 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for use to cancel all of our downside price targets given by the MCO last month
2011-12-22 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have to take out the early November highs on the MCO
2011-12-22 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that hasn't been done as yet
2011-12-22 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the rest of the market looks here
2011-12-22 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2011-12-22 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's not forget
2011-12-22 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the double support of the NYSE breadth MCSUM at its zero line and rising bottoms line
2011-12-22 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we continue to expand to the upside here
2011-12-22 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have relieved all of the "overbought" condition from the lows of October in the MCSUM
2011-12-22 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still would have control of money flow on an intermediate term basis
2011-12-22 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of about a week earlier in the month
2011-12-22 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO has now been below its zero line for what is deemed usual and customary (4-6 weeks)
2011-12-22 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is being able then to catch the direction in which prices want to travel
2011-12-22 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though some may be disappointed with everything that looks to be going great on the bearish side
2011-12-22 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2011-12-22 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not being able to follow through on such events, such as Summation Failure, also informs us that something else might be going on here that needs our attention
2011-12-22 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's more important than either making a killing...or just being right
2011-12-22 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is the boss
2011-12-22 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now
2011-12-22 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to build on turnaround Tuesday
2011-12-22 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more day then would pretty much cancel all downside projections
2011-12-22 16:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the upside projections from the October lows were also cancelled
2011-12-22 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was given in plenty of time before the actual sell of into the Black Friday lows
2011-12-22 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if you're short here
2011-12-22 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are now indications that market's trend might be reversing
2011-12-22 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a more neutral position should be taken because of this
2011-12-22 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always until proven otherwise
2011-12-22 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today provided some substantive proof that our bearish take is to be softened
2011-12-22 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get an idea of what kind of breadth plurality we need to break above the November highs...one moment
2011-12-22 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we need a +337 for no change on the MCO
2011-12-22 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for a zero line snapback... -1798
2011-12-22 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be about 3:1 negative
2011-12-22 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...anything above 3:1 positive should be enough to drive the MCO above its November highs
2011-12-22 16:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that since the MCO has been below the zero line for a lengthy amount of time
2011-12-22 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it now takes bigger negative plurality readings just to show enough weakness to again find balance between buyers and sellers (the MCO zero line)
2011-12-22 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all in the math
2011-12-22 16:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCO moves higher
2011-12-22 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the needed negative plurality will then increase as well
2011-12-22 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while a small positive plurality will be needed to keep the trend higher
2011-12-22 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we look at the post expansion today in the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that we had better money flow moving in today than what saw at the beginning of the month
2011-12-22 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-12-22 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: visually
2011-12-22 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your brain should tell you that it doesn't look likely that with this kind of momentum that we'll see a slowing in this same momentum...until we reach that same congestion period at the +200 level
2011-12-22 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your emotion, on the other hand, would be saying "but wait, what happens if we get another broadside comment from the EU?"
2011-12-22 16:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would stop the increasing money flow in its tracks
2011-12-22 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-12-22 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-12-22 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the holidays now
2011-12-22 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and many of those who can move the markets with a comment are probably on vacation now
2011-12-22 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...so far...we're now getting our first real change in direction
2011-12-22 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the other index MCO's have taken out these same early December highs
2011-12-22 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that would add more weight to closing our current positions outright
2011-12-22 16:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's go on
2011-12-22 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs now in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-12-22 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, once again, notice how the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM came down to its target of the -500 level, and has now bounced off this level and is turning higher
2011-12-22 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is enough of a correctional process now to where this indicator can, in fact, continue to move higher from here
2011-12-22 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2011-12-22 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we also left behind a ledge formation on this MCSUM
2011-12-22 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only are ledges made "to fall of"
2011-12-22 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they usually appear just before the final sequence in a downside MCSUM structure
2011-12-22 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we have two pieces of technical evidence that, if we get the needed follow through quickly by the MCO, that a reversal in money flow could and can be taking place
2011-12-22 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we always want to do is move with the direction in which money travels
2011-12-22 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the NDX breadth MCO did NOT move above its early December highs today
2011-12-22 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about on Tuesday
2011-12-22 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been, by far, the weakest index of late
2011-12-22 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...some of this might be pointed to because of the recent re-balance which both the NDX and RUT went through on OPEX
2011-12-22 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components here remain bearish
2011-12-22 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a mixed market so far
2011-12-22 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which probably means
2011-12-22 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the last couple of days of buying have been probably more in the financial sector than that of tech
2011-12-22 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look at the sector charts in a bit
2011-12-22 16:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...nice upward thrust in the SPX breadth MCO now
2011-12-22 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2011-12-22 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have some work in front of them
2011-12-22 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only do we have zero line resistance on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could turn into a fishhook
2011-12-22 16:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have MCSUM gap resistance in the area just above this same zero line
2011-12-22 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike early December
2011-12-22 16:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around the components of the SPX breadth MCO agree with today's break to new highs
2011-12-22 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2011-12-22 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and again putting ruler to monitor
2011-12-22 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's gap higher did break the declining tops line connecting the top and the ledge of a couple of weeks ago on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch how things play out here
2011-12-22 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have to show us that they can look over their collective shoulders and see that they have back up
2011-12-22 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't
2011-12-22 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we saw a couple of weeks ago
2011-12-22 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to have another rally failure
2011-12-22 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidations are such a bother
2011-12-22 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point...just give any kind of trend to play
2011-12-22 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up, down, whatever
2011-12-22 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved to higher highs today on the OEX breadth MCO
2011-12-22 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't with the components
2011-12-22 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we barely did so on the Dow
2011-12-22 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again the components here didn't fully agree
2011-12-22 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO showed some good upside vigor today
2011-12-22 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCSUM turning higher off its -250 level
2011-12-22 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember another thing
2011-12-22 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during bull and bear cycles
2011-12-22 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the -250 level acts as bull market support and the +250 level acts as bear market resistance
2011-12-22 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to see this MCSUM move higher for the better part of 2 1/2 months
2011-12-22 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then find support at its -250 level
2011-12-22 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is also something that we should respect for what it may imply
2011-12-22 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do find support here
2011-12-22 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears would have lost a golden opportunity
2011-12-22 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they had everything going for them
2011-12-22 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both fundamentally and technically
2011-12-22 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still these high levels of liquidity kept things from falling apart
2011-12-22 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-12-22 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been saying over and over
2011-12-22 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity has NEVER been a problem here all year
2011-12-22 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what has been a problem is fear of the unknown
2011-12-22 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotionalism
2011-12-22 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...whatcha know?
2011-12-22 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO did, in fact, take out its early November highs today
2011-12-22 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess its strength on Tuesday was telling us more than what we thought was believable
2011-12-22 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-12-22 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should close all shorts
2011-12-22 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no sense in keeping in position which is being attacked and making good progress in breaking down the defenses
2011-12-22 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again - the small caps only see money flow when all else is deemed fairly valued and liquidity levels are high enough to spread to those "less deserving" issues
2011-12-22 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that more risk can be taken with those who are considered growth issues
2011-12-22 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a cross over buy today on the SML components
2011-12-22 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...too risky now to be short
2011-12-22 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now see a full zero line snapback
2011-12-22 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we would take out the prior hesitation area in doing this
2011-12-22 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really not worth hanging around and waiting for a shake out to close
2011-12-22 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that the SML breadth MCSUM is now filling its gap resistance area now
2011-12-22 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually once you move into this area
2011-12-22 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its usually filled within a day or so
2011-12-22 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and higher highs today in the TM breadth MCO
2011-12-22 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all these cases
2011-12-22 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we move above the December highs
2011-12-22 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also broke above the declining tops lines controlling these same MCO patterns from the same early November highs
2011-12-22 17:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-22 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after intercepting the ball on Tuesday
2011-12-22 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are now driving down the field and making up some nice ground in doing so
2011-12-22 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...they are in field goal range of turning this thing around
2011-12-22 17:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they're able to move above the early November highs
2011-12-22 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "touchdown"
2011-12-22 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or for you other "football" fans out there....
2011-12-22 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "GOOOOOAAAAAL!"
2011-12-22 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-12-22 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sector breadth charts tonight
2011-12-22 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth data is trying desperately to hold on to its attempt to turn things around
2011-12-22 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if buyers can get the XLY breadth MCSUM back above its zero line
2011-12-22 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that would cancel the Summation Failure alert
2011-12-22 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now..could be a ledge
2011-12-22 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rule is that you can see one fishhook and one ledge in a declining MCSUM structure
2011-12-22 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you won't see a duplicate of one or the other
2011-12-22 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch that one
2011-12-22 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we now see where money is parking itself here...look at the XLP price pattern
2011-12-22 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2011-12-22 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes folks, that's all time price highs
2011-12-22 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now let's take a moment and look at the McClellan's here
2011-12-22 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice first of all the nice gap expansion we had moving up from the August lows
2011-12-22 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not only did we see a partial retracement lower
2011-12-22 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but except for the washout into the Black Friday lows
2011-12-22 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers never had any real conviction based on the downside congested structure of the MCSUM pattern
2011-12-22 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were only able to move back to test the +500 level
2011-12-22 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the level in which rising price structures are able to be maintained
2011-12-22 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yesterdays' highs in the MCO confirmed this recent price pattern move higher
2011-12-22 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2011-12-22 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are showing divergence with the XLP breadth MCSUM with these same highs
2011-12-22 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again...until we can decisively break down below the +500 level on the MCSUM
2011-12-22 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains with the bulls
2011-12-22 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now taking ruler to monitor
2011-12-22 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's break to the upside also broke above the declining tops line controlling the XLP breadth MCO pattern since the October highs
2011-12-22 17:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if anything else
2011-12-22 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have lost any short term control here
2011-12-22 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the bulls have IT control
2011-12-22 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes easier to keep pushing prices higher since we have a lack of sellers bidding prices lower
2011-12-22 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the other breadth MCO's
2011-12-22 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break above the early November highs here would allow the MCSUM to break above its declining tops line
2011-12-22 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would then give the all clear for the bulls
2011-12-22 17:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is one sector to look at for any possible bullish positions
2011-12-22 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it now looks like we have enough money moving in for a bottom in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the sloping structure we saw before
2011-12-22 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time we have better thrust behind the move
2011-12-22 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any short positions here should be closed
2011-12-22 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more thrusts we have here
2011-12-22 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the odds of an upside breakout of our triangles
2011-12-22 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that these events can be rather robust because of their compression factor
2011-12-22 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we figured
2011-12-22 17:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the financials
2011-12-22 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLF breadth MCO
2011-12-22 17:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how its now moved above its November highs
2011-12-22 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the MCSUM
2011-12-22 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding zero line support
2011-12-22 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now with the new highs in the MCO
2011-12-22 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that ledge pattern at the beginning of the month is likely to be taken out without too much of a problem
2011-12-22 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2011-12-22 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the price pattern closed just above its declining tops line of the larger triangle
2011-12-22 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...you don't want to fight this one when you have internal confirmation
2011-12-22 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the expectation of a low from where one side can actually take control of the pattern being that we were net neutral on Monday
2011-12-22 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2011-12-22 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close above 14 on the XLF would then be a strong buy
2011-12-22 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another defensive sector, the XLV, is also showing good price strength here
2011-12-22 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the XLV breadth MCO is confirming this advance
2011-12-22 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still need a little more proof that we can carry on with the XLV breadth MCSUM
2011-12-22 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have an ascending right angle triangle configuration on the XLI price chart
2011-12-22 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLI breadth MCO has now showed enough energy to where we can break above the 34 level
2011-12-22 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-12-22 17:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM is finding support at the -250 level
2011-12-22 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another good day tomorrow and the declining tops line on the MCSUM will also be violated
2011-12-22 17:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: starting to see a change in direction now on the XLB data
2011-12-22 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another good day or two should be enough to keep the bullish ball rolling
2011-12-22 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we surmised because of the NDX data
2011-12-22 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK (tech) sector continues to lag big time
2011-12-22 17:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it makes you wonder
2011-12-22 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having a power house like Oracle getting clobbered like it did yesterday...is that enough of a "bell" to get all of the unwilling sellers out so that the system is cleansed enough to reverse?
2011-12-22 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and isn't it interesting that the XLK is only a point away from new highs
2011-12-22 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so really, in actuality, this sector has really held up nicely in spite of all of the fundamental problems of the last 10 months
2011-12-22 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what should not be at all surprising
2011-12-22 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU sector is also showing nice strength here
2011-12-22 17:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2011-12-22 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been in a rising price configuration since the August crash
2011-12-22 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only 2 1/2 points away from its all time highs
2011-12-22 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing
2011-12-22 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-22 17:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another day or two like today
2011-12-22 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can put our bear claws away for a while and put on our bull hats again
2011-12-22 17:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets see how the volume oscillators look
2011-12-22 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's, with the exception of the NDX, are now "overbought"
2011-12-22 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are pretty frothy here
2011-12-22 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain neutral
2011-12-22 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to see here on any breakout of the triangle formations
2011-12-22 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the VTO's MUST confirm this move
2011-12-22 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that they move to "overbought"
2011-12-22 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they must move to higher highs...and as far away from their zero lines as possible
2011-12-22 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .76
2011-12-22 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be fresh buying there
2011-12-22 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still bullish with a .97 reading
2011-12-22 17:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .56
2011-12-22 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2011-12-22 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-12-22 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .65
2011-12-22 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2011-12-22 17:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-22 17:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10's continue to keep the bears from any kind of trend development near term
2011-12-22 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we reversed on Tuesday when we touched the rising bottoms line from October
2011-12-22 17:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could sag lower here...but its not likely that we'll be able to break lower
2011-12-22 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...the risk/reward of holding short is not high enough to warrant the position
2011-12-22 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have confirmation, or comfortability, to move long aggressively either
2011-12-22 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...best to watch and be in cash for now
2011-12-22 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prepare for either break
2011-12-22 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully
2011-12-22 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around
2011-12-22 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will finally get some sort of trend to develop
2011-12-22 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because this trading sideways for almost a year is getting really tiresome
2011-12-22 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-22 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about this
2011-12-22 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last 9-10 months has actually kept all of us pretty honest in our trading
2011-12-22 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though the backdrop of the market was that of being bi polar
2011-12-22 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here
2011-12-22 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what I think all of us should take from this
2011-12-22 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that having high liquidity levels can make a definitive difference in how the markets are likely to react during times of high stress
2011-12-22 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first Japan...we didn't know how far reaching it would be
2011-12-22 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we got Greece
2011-12-22 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which spread like a virus to the rest of the EU
2011-12-22 17:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still
2011-12-22 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are
2011-12-22 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less than 5 or 6% away from moving to new price highs again
2011-12-22 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking with a birds eye view
2011-12-22 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we've done is moved sideways
2011-12-22 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for clarity
2011-12-22 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this time be the time that we finally move out of this zone?
2011-12-22 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too soon to say
2011-12-22 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have downside price targets still open
2011-12-22 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no new upside targets have been generated
2011-12-22 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...like most indecision patterns...we wait for a resolution
2011-12-22 17:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it doesn't matter which we go...as long as we can hitch a ride before the majority realize what's going on
2011-12-22 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comments?
2011-12-22 17:47:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: still very dangerous ground here
2011-12-22 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not as dangerous as it was
2011-12-22 17:47:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, but...
2011-12-22 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was a good constructive day
2011-12-22 17:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no buts
2011-12-22 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2011-12-22 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always been up to the bulls to prove their intentions here
2011-12-22 17:48:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, it's under their downtrend wise cash wise, until that breaks-I'll be extremely cautious
2011-12-22 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears, once again, did not show any follow through to a technical condition in which they could had 'piled on"
2011-12-22 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..it is an indecision pattern
2011-12-22 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do break above the November highs
2011-12-22 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no more indecision
2011-12-22 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we break
2011-12-22 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2011-12-22 17:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look Lew...what do you see?
2011-12-22 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at the SML volume MCO!
2011-12-22 17:50:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks in concert
2011-12-22 17:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leading a bit
2011-12-22 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ is still weak
2011-12-22 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NYSE stocks are doing their fair share here
2011-12-22 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TM volume MCO is still lagging
2011-12-22 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...be cautious here
2011-12-22 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the lack of the bears being able to capitalize on a great opportunity says...ummm..."volumes"
2011-12-22 17:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2011-12-22 17:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead on keeping the bearish accelerator pedal depressed to the floor
2011-12-22 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about we let off on the pedal and coast for a bit and take in the scenery?
2011-12-22 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the road becomes bullish
2011-12-22 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you hit the brakes
2011-12-22 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is a bit out of sync here
2011-12-22 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's nowhere as bearish as it was going into last Wednesday
2011-12-22 17:53:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed
2011-12-22 17:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to be reasonable
2011-12-22 17:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCO's are able to keep taking out resistance targets
2011-12-22 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to disagree?
2011-12-22 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow futures are up 56
2011-12-22 17:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ND up 8
2011-12-22 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's no problems with the open in Europe
2011-12-22 17:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Bonds not trading
2011-12-22 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 3 day weekend
2011-12-22 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: end of the quarter
2011-12-22 17:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: end of the year
2011-12-22 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pressure might be off
2011-12-22 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was a important day for the bulls
2011-12-22 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can continue to build on this
2011-12-22 17:55:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a large gap through that triangle wouldn't hurt
2011-12-22 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our expectation of a late December low
2011-12-22 17:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would have no problem following any upside leadership
2011-12-22 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be final straw
2011-12-22 17:56:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-12-22 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any more ideas, comments ??
2011-12-22 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything else
2011-12-22 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard stops now in place
2011-12-22 17:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not mental ones
2011-12-22 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in playing games...especially with triangles
2011-12-22 17:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-22 17:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-22 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great holiday weekend
2011-12-22 17:58:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: DITTO!
2011-12-22 17:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hope that Santa brings you all what you wish for!
2011-12-22 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until Tuesday
2011-12-22 17:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish you all...good night

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