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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-22 15:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pleasant good day to everyone
2010-12-22 15:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how's it going?
2010-12-22 16:00:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, but slow
2010-12-22 16:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the olden days...ahhhh...
2010-12-22 16:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sneaking up
2010-12-22 16:00:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems like
2010-12-22 16:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile...everyone continues to pick tops
2010-12-22 16:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be it
2010-12-22 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....any comments or questions before we get started??
2010-12-22 16:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry about the message board being down
2010-12-22 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will get yesterday's transcripts up ASAP...but probably in the morning
2010-12-22 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I need a vacation from my vacation
2010-12-22 16:02:54 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-22 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that always happens
2010-12-22 16:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when I start to relax...holiday is over
2010-12-22 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-12-22 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change tonight on the CO NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too much more to add that's been already talked about yesterday
2010-12-22 16:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things continue to look like a breakout to the upside on a near term basis
2010-12-22 16:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice follow through today on the NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now at the highest level seen on the NYSE breadth MCSUM in about a month
2010-12-22 16:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls have once again flexed their muscles here
2010-12-22 16:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably more of a seasonality thing than anything else
2010-12-22 16:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a move above the +500 level on the MCSUM would help things along tremendously
2010-12-22 16:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now less than 100 data points away on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM from challenging the early November highs
2010-12-22 16:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of note this evening is that the 10% component of the NASDAQ breadth MCO has yet to move to new highs
2010-12-22 16:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on that
2010-12-22 16:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM continues to show bullish promise
2010-12-22 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having now filled the end November divergent gap
2010-12-22 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now getting some nice gap expansion to the upside on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-12-22 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is now testing its early November highs
2010-12-22 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM continuing to confirm the advancing price structure
2010-12-22 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs on the Dow breadth data as well
2010-12-22 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks as though money is now moving into the large caps
2010-12-22 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow breadth MCSUM with a reading of +491, a close above the +500 level would probably get things kicked into high gear near term
2010-12-22 16:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the holiday coming on Saturday
2010-12-22 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would think that many are not even coming in for a half day on Friday
2010-12-22 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll probably see something significant happen tomorrow and then we'll look to next week
2010-12-22 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCSUM now within striking distance of surpassing it's November highs
2010-12-22 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML breadth MCSUM already doing this, the odds are very high that this will accomplished in the next couple of trading days
2010-12-22 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...we're in a textbook bullish configuration between the small, mid, and large caps right now
2010-12-22 16:17:25 [Message] manuj -> Chat: you mean higher MCSUM on MID?
2010-12-22 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there doesn't seem to be any important price top coming for probably another month or two
2010-12-22 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-22 16:18:00 [Message] manuj -> Chat: wow! another month
2010-12-22 16:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the November MCSUM highs were around +900
2010-12-22 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now at +844
2010-12-22 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2010-12-22 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to even think that there is a chance for a correction of more than 2% right now is really pushing it
2010-12-22 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's continue to climb
2010-12-22 16:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it gets tougher and tougher for the bears to put together any resemblance of a reversal
2010-12-22 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes a situation of buyers "pausing" where prices can then drift lower
2010-12-22 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than it would be in the way of selling
2010-12-22 16:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML (RUT) remains super bullish here
2010-12-22 16:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the bar chart
2010-12-22 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can make out a simple 5 wave advance from the mid November lows
2010-12-22 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2010-12-22 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML breadth MCSUM as high as it is
2010-12-22 16:21:12 [Message] manuj -> Chat: MCO dropped a bit on SML
2010-12-22 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best analysis here is that we are in a 3rd wave extension of one degree or the other
2010-12-22 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the MCO weakness today fits a 5th wave termination, the MCO is not as important right now
2010-12-22 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main thrust lies with the MCSUM
2010-12-22 16:21:58 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-22 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about this yesterday in depth
2010-12-22 16:22:07 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-22 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can review it in the scripts once I get them up
2010-12-22 16:22:20 [Message] manuj -> Chat: will do
2010-12-22 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the message board only went back online about 2 hours ago
2010-12-22 16:22:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: MCSUM looks right at a resistance point, though, too
2010-12-22 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be perfectly candid here
2010-12-22 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more breadth MCSUM's that are able to move above their November highs
2010-12-22 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer the current advance will be
2010-12-22 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...I would put any kind of completion to sometime in the beginning of February
2010-12-22 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the more MCSUM's we get above their November highs
2010-12-22 16:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will push this time factor out accordingly
2010-12-22 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my experience tells me that this is likely to go on probably until early spring
2010-12-22 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much in favor for the bulls right now
2010-12-22 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from sentiment
2010-12-22 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to cycles
2010-12-22 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to breadth and volume
2010-12-22 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to price pattern structure
2010-12-22 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything seems to be running smoothly now
2010-12-22 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...we can't even find the time to pause when we become near term "overbought"
2010-12-22 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just "correct on the fly"
2010-12-22 16:26:23 [Message] manuj -> Chat: market has been moving up since sep without a meaningful correction. can it really keep going until spring with only 2-3% correction?
2010-12-22 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-22 16:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-12-22 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will likely will for the reasons given
2010-12-22 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-22 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM's cross above the +500 level
2010-12-22 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher they go
2010-12-22 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it is for prices to continue moving in this same direction
2010-12-22 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the higher the MCSUM readings
2010-12-22 16:27:33 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok thx for that insight
2010-12-22 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the percentage move for the average stock
2010-12-22 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll put it another way
2010-12-22 16:27:51 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so almost like a snowball effect...
2010-12-22 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: honest answers please from all
2010-12-22 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who else in the business right now is talking like what the market is indicating?
2010-12-22 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much a snowball effect as it is a lack of selling
2010-12-22 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to my question...very few
2010-12-22 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say right now that about 90% of folks our there remain baffled about what's going on
2010-12-22 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and of those 90%, 99% are looking for a pullback...agreed?
2010-12-22 16:29:49 [Message] manuj -> Chat: correct. top calls all over the place
2010-12-22 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's comical
2010-12-22 16:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the real frustrating thing here
2010-12-22 16:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that many of these top callers have a really good track record of analyzing the technical condition of the market and have now thrown this would in favor of fundamental hi-jinx
2010-12-22 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: POMO
2010-12-22 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: December period
2010-12-22 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm....you name it...every excuse being used comes from something in which is "not normal"
2010-12-22 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we've discussed in here for close to 8 months now
2010-12-22 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing at all normal going on right now
2010-12-22 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but our focus there remains with the historic liquidity levels
2010-12-22 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will fend off any kind of attack
2010-12-22 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in this case, the FED has done what it set out to do
2010-12-22 16:32:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: pomo has nothing to do with the liquidity?
2010-12-22 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not now it doesn't
2010-12-22 16:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will in about 12-18 months
2010-12-22 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...when the FED makes a policy decision
2010-12-22 16:33:36 [Message] manuj -> Chat: what do you mean? aren't they pumping money in market via POMO now?
2010-12-22 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes an average of 18 months to go through the system and finally show up in equities
2010-12-22 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope..all money supply issues must take a natural course
2010-12-22 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: POMO will not be felt by the equity markets until sometime in early 2012
2010-12-22 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest here
2010-12-22 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: POMO is a failure
2010-12-22 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the debt market
2010-12-22 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at gold
2010-12-22 16:34:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it truly is. I agree
2010-12-22 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why bonds have sold off
2010-12-22 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy the rumor...sell the fact
2010-12-22 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the auction is a farce
2010-12-22 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole thing is a farce
2010-12-22 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this doesn't matter to us as traders
2010-12-22 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a distraction for many
2010-12-22 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FOCUS remains with the direction and amplitude of the MCSUM's
2010-12-22 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOW they get there is not important
2010-12-22 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is what the measure is and then apply it to price structure
2010-12-22 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let everyone discuss this meaningless fundamental stuff
2010-12-22 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to keep focused on what's truly important
2010-12-22 16:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I will stress this again
2010-12-22 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the advance/decline line shows us the measure of liquidity that is AVAILABLE to be put to work
2010-12-22 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that it's been utilized
2010-12-22 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that it's available
2010-12-22 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as this reserve continues to rise
2010-12-22 16:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it's all time highs or not
2010-12-22 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is what's available
2010-12-22 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the A/D line is your fuel tank
2010-12-22 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the speed in which this fuel is used
2010-12-22 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the distance this used fuel will translate to in the way of price performance
2010-12-22 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as we continue to add fuel to the gas tank
2010-12-22 16:39:47 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What do you think of the lagging NYSE Comp MCSUM? Is that due to the bond funds?
2010-12-22 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lagging...you mean divergence?
2010-12-22 16:40:20 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes, it has hardly gone up
2010-12-22 16:40:37 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: compared to the other MCSUM's
2010-12-22 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we're in a transition period
2010-12-22 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had the interest rate sensitive issues of the NYSE leading prices higher over the last 2 months (or so) this leadership has been turned over to the common stocks
2010-12-22 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would generally mean that there's been enough "additive" to the fuel to where the commons can now see better money flow characteristics as the focus becomes on earnings and not on currency cross rates
2010-12-22 16:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this in mind
2010-12-22 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean that the dollar should start to strengthen with equities advancing
2010-12-22 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens, money outside the US will tend to grow more expensive
2010-12-22 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks are no longer at a discount(against the Euro, Franc, Pound)
2010-12-22 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's probably some selling there too
2010-12-22 16:44:10 [Message] manuj -> Chat: but isn't USD inversely co-related to equities (for the recent past)
2010-12-22 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be...but not always
2010-12-22 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a currency
2010-12-22 16:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether its US or otherwise
2010-12-22 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only rises in value when there is economic substance to maintain its strength over other countries
2010-12-22 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back last year
2010-12-22 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw foreign currencies rise against the dollar because of two things
2010-12-22 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...because our economic outlook was weaker than many other countries
2010-12-22 16:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and second
2010-12-22 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably more important
2010-12-22 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currency strength is based solely on what one might get in return investment of capital
2010-12-22 16:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-12-22 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one can get a 1 or 2% return on their capital by investing in the Euro over the US dollar that is near zero percent...what else is money to do?
2010-12-22 16:47:42 [Message] manuj -> Chat: don't want to interrupt with too many questions. but please do give your thoughts about gold/silver in light of this analysis (before we close the chat)
2010-12-22 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money knows what money likes and money likes to make more money
2010-12-22 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will seek out areas of higher return with a degree of risk
2010-12-22 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the MCSUM question
2010-12-22 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will also notice that the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM was able to top out closer to the +1000 level
2010-12-22 16:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a deeper correction than that of topping out around the +750 level would be a reasonable expectation
2010-12-22 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but putting all this aside
2010-12-22 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main focus here remains both with the MCSUM's direction and its speed in which its moving
2010-12-22 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the MCSUM measures the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMA of the NYAD line
2010-12-22 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further these EMA's are from each other, the better the buoyancy of whatever being measured
2010-12-22 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the closer they are together (the MCSUM zero line) the better the chance for one side to take control
2010-12-22 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...just think of a simple price pattern
2010-12-22 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and applying these same EMA's to the chart
2010-12-22 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will often see prices play tag with these EMA's
2010-12-22 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it breaks below the 19 day...then it's likely that the 39 day will hold the price pattern in check
2010-12-22 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this kind of break will give the 19 day EMA the opportunity to relax and also test this same intermediate term "trend line"
2010-12-22 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can use the McClellan's for price patterns as well
2010-12-22 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all it is is math
2010-12-22 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing mysterious here
2010-12-22 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what these tools do provide is probable insight to what may happen over a 4-6 week period
2010-12-22 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the single most important thing to know in this business
2010-12-22 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2010-12-22 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....let's go ahead and expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2010-12-22 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's as high as they are right now
2010-12-22 16:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would expect the move to be better than 1% and probably closer to 2%
2010-12-22 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...since the odds of a 1-2% move is unlikely to the downside
2010-12-22 16:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then further speculate that this large move will likely be to the upside
2010-12-22 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turning our attention again tonight to the XLF breadth MCSUM
2010-12-22 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that we have now moved above the November highs
2010-12-22 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest a strong buy signal here
2010-12-22 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of interesting that there's been very little chatter of late of the financials
2010-12-22 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess when they don't crash they're not all that interesting
2010-12-22 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-12-22 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF is at 7 month highs now and nobody could care less
2010-12-22 16:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also...check the XLF breadth MCO
2010-12-22 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at its highest reading since the September lows
2010-12-22 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we've been talking about this breakout now since early November
2010-12-22 17:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a nice snapback...and held where we needed to
2010-12-22 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're off and running
2010-12-22 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the kind of pattern that you don't want to ignore
2010-12-22 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how solid advancing price structures have their beginning
2010-12-22 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember what we talked about in October
2010-12-22 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those sectors that were lagging
2010-12-22 17:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were not only the same ones in which blame has been given for the 2008 collapse
2010-12-22 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these same sectors, therefore, were "undervalued" since everything else had already been bought
2010-12-22 17:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and do you know when the majority will change their minds on the banks?
2010-12-22 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near the top
2010-12-22 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they always do
2010-12-22 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is to buy at wholesale levels to sell at retail
2010-12-22 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking that the XLF pattern of the last 7 months
2010-12-22 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the basing pattern
2010-12-22 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that we've broken out to the upside of this base
2010-12-22 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now generate an upside objective
2010-12-22 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be....one moment
2010-12-22 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to get a bigger chart
2010-12-22 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally - 21 1/2
2010-12-22 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the potential here is...
2010-12-22 17:06:43 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: How do you calculate the price objective?
2010-12-22 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're able to break above the April highs of 17
2010-12-22 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 35
2010-12-22 17:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the simplest way to measure it is to take the distance of the base and then extend that distance from the breakout point
2010-12-22 17:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer the base...the bigger the push
2010-12-22 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another good example of a base
2010-12-22 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to look at the monthly chart of Silver
2010-12-22 17:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remember back in 2000
2010-12-22 17:08:52 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: The distance of the base measured in days?
2010-12-22 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the measuring objective was about 30
2010-12-22 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2010-12-22 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NO ONE thought it would be possible
2010-12-22 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even simpler
2010-12-22 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a ruler and measure the length and then take that length and extend it
2010-12-22 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the concept here is the same as a triangle or a head and shoulders
2010-12-22 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're taking the distance needed to finish the pattern, and then extending this (time or price) distance accordingly
2010-12-22 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in the case of the XLF
2010-12-22 17:10:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: How can I adjust for the scaling of the chart? I.e. if the days are really sitting tight together on the chart?
2010-12-22 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a minimal objective now of around 22
2010-12-22 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in doing this, we will have to move above 17
2010-12-22 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when this is all over with...35 seems to be the ultimate target here
2010-12-22 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I do is change the price chart to a single line close only
2010-12-22 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it cleans up the garbage...and the time value doesn't come into play
2010-12-22 17:12:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-12-22 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...here's the caveat
2010-12-22 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're thinking of translating this to something like the FAS
2010-12-22 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really can't because of how its structured
2010-12-22 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the move will tend to mimic the simple calculation of the XLF
2010-12-22 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will tend to get whipsawed a lot
2010-12-22 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will tend to lag or move ahead all dependent on what's moving in the sector itself
2010-12-22 17:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're going gung ho about playing the FAS
2010-12-22 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that it's important to play a daily hit and run there
2010-12-22 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the issue goes up double digits in a day
2010-12-22 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell
2010-12-22 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and re-cock
2010-12-22 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...there's a lot of upside potential with the XLF
2010-12-22 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch your MCSUM and you'll be OK...
2010-12-22 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2010-12-22 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 22 is the objective
2010-12-22 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if and when we get above the 17 level AND the XLF breadth MCO moves to above its September highs, then the 35 level will be very doable
2010-12-22 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: objectives are always nice
2010-12-22 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're even nicer when the engine that drives prices to those objectives confirm that such a move can even happen in the first place
2010-12-22 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that I've probably overwhelmed you folks...are there any follow up questions??
2010-12-22 17:19:56 [Message] manuj -> Chat: gold?
2010-12-22 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll take ideas as well
2010-12-22 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what about gold?
2010-12-22 17:20:04 [Message] manuj -> Chat: any thoughts?
2010-12-22 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is up
2010-12-22 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have upside objectives of $1850 US
2010-12-22 17:20:26 [Message] manuj -> Chat: is it also moving higher or correcting
2010-12-22 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: according to what I hear
2010-12-22 17:20:32 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-22 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a 13 1/2 year cycle bottom coming in January
2010-12-22 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that might be what's holding things back a bit
2010-12-22 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it's due to nest on the 8th
2010-12-22 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: structure wise...it's all good
2010-12-22 17:21:40 [Message] manuj -> Chat: cool thx
2010-12-22 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the gold/silver ratio is still a bit out of whack
2010-12-22 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but everything continues to look good for many metals
2010-12-22 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the US economy is about to turn around
2010-12-22 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just think how much gold and silver will need to be used by China just to keep up
2010-12-22 17:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we are moving away from a market made of commodities to that of economic expansion
2010-12-22 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at copper
2010-12-22 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at all time highs now
2010-12-22 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2010-12-22 17:23:27 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yep
2010-12-22 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard today that "someone" has corned the market on copper
2010-12-22 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they "don't think" its JPM as it was/is with silver
2010-12-22 17:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me thinks that these same people got a earful when they pointed their finger to JPM before
2010-12-22 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-12-22 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the charts
2010-12-22 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that matters
2010-12-22 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an opposing trend can NOT happen without a decline and then a failure to move to new highs
2010-12-22 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we're at least a month way from any kind of change in direction there
2010-12-22 17:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by that time, any technician worth his or her weight will know what to do
2010-12-22 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: markets do NOT change direction on a dime
2010-12-22 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2010-12-22 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although its nice, and most times comical, to hear why something mustn't go higher or lower
2010-12-22 17:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really just lip service to fill in time during the day
2010-12-22 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually given by those who are selling something
2010-12-22 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this is is a sales job
2010-12-22 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like everything else that is sold as a service or for consumption
2010-12-22 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our goal here is a simple one
2010-12-22 17:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are here to just follow the money
2010-12-22 17:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ask those probing questions of "why?" later on
2010-12-22 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we all know
2010-12-22 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually
2010-12-22 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reasons why will always come out....in the end
2010-12-22 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the Utilities folks
2010-12-22 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are our tried and true barometer of impending doom
2010-12-22 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always have been
2010-12-22 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check the XLU breadth MCO
2010-12-22 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nearing highly "overbought" levels
2010-12-22 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that interest rates are going to decline for a while
2010-12-22 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've peaked out
2010-12-22 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, if by some chance, the Bond CEF's can once again move to new highs during this sequence
2010-12-22 17:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then further extend the current advance
2010-12-22 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to also remember something very, very important here
2010-12-22 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back at the March 2009 lows
2010-12-22 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very existence of the US was being called into question
2010-12-22 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this hasn't happened to this degree since 1932
2010-12-22 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while this was going on
2010-12-22 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were building the highest amount of bullish trend divergence in the history of the stock market as applied to the NYAD line
2010-12-22 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the potential here
2010-12-22 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a government that is about to be in a stalemate for 2 years
2010-12-22 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is actually pretty spectacular
2010-12-22 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market doesn't have to worry as much about the future
2010-12-22 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the future is more than likely going to be close to unchanged to what it was prior to the 2007 top
2010-12-22 17:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I also heard that there was a Federal court last week that threw out the Health Care plan as being unconstitutional
2010-12-22 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's just getting started
2010-12-22 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said earlier
2010-12-22 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a whole lot to like right now
2010-12-22 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not you AGREE with it or not makes little difference
2010-12-22 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will tend to keep you from exploiting the situation given
2010-12-22 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always our choice
2010-12-22 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...enough philosophy
2010-12-22 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2010-12-22 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no real changes from yesterday on the volume oscillators
2010-12-22 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more thing to make clear here
2010-12-22 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should not in any way not expect some sort of potential snapback to the April price highs to those charts and indices that haven't done so already
2010-12-22 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this will present a point for accumulation
2010-12-22 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to that of selling
2010-12-22 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw this occur in November
2010-12-22 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we got a "hold" signal...and then a "don't buy" signal...but we never go a "sell" signal
2010-12-22 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the same kind of situation for...let's say...early January
2010-12-22 17:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-12-22 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be short and sweet...maybe a week at the most
2010-12-22 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that it's the markets objective to keep the majority from recognizing the trend
2010-12-22 17:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good example of this
2010-12-22 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how many folks have been shorting, or trying to pick tops, and not respecting the angle of ascent of the daily price structures
2010-12-22 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's as if they only looking at the intraday moves and not realizing that these ebbs and flows intraday are what make up the bigger picture
2010-12-22 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to put it another way
2010-12-22 17:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are watching how the tides go in and out under a pier, but they are not looking at the entire coast line
2010-12-22 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're missing the bigger picture
2010-12-22 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where the MCSUM is probably the single best tool out there to measure this kind of thing
2010-12-22 17:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it gives you both direction and amplitude of the (money) tide that's pushing it
2010-12-22 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.07
2010-12-22 17:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .81
2010-12-22 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no longer "overbought"
2010-12-22 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of that is the Citibank anomaly is being taken off the table now
2010-12-22 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should be back to "normal" by next week
2010-12-22 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day NYSE TRIN and we note that it's once again at frothy levels
2010-12-22 17:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something like a quick 2 or 3 day pullback might be what's needed to correct that situation
2010-12-22 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .75
2010-12-22 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (there's the buying we talked about yesterday)
2010-12-22 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2010-12-22 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a little closer to minimally "oversold" there
2010-12-22 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .91
2010-12-22 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2010-12-22 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-12-22 17:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-12-22 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing much different than yesterday
2010-12-22 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is up until proven otherwise
2010-12-22 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bulls to do what they want
2010-12-22 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a last chance to do something noticeable tomorrow for maybe the rest of the year
2010-12-22 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-22 17:47:13 [Message] tracca -> Chat: any XLF stock suggestion?
2010-12-22 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you're wondering, yes, there will be another chat session on Thursday and then back to regular schedule next week
2010-12-22 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what DP shows...
2010-12-22 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/webcgi/wb.exe?chartbook.web+IYF_PMO
2010-12-22 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to be honest here
2010-12-22 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the whole sector being shun here still
2010-12-22 17:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would at least have a position in something resembling the XLF for a total package
2010-12-22 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way you don't have to worry
2010-12-22 17:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at AIG
2010-12-22 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: second strongest in the group
2010-12-22 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the idiom here is the strong get stronger
2010-12-22 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will tend to flow to those areas in which are already acknowledged as being leaders first
2010-12-22 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN it will flow into those that haven't participated later on as the flow of money pans out
2010-12-22 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-12-22 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the individual charts look pretty good here, don't they?
2010-12-22 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have been since the September lows
2010-12-22 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when nobody wanted any of them
2010-12-22 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now
2010-12-22 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're getting big money coming into the sector
2010-12-22 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what really drives prices
2010-12-22 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...there's 13 pages of ideas for you!
2010-12-22 17:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would also look at the exchange stocks
2010-12-22 17:52:49 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you Fib
2010-12-22 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if we're going to start to get more participation
2010-12-22 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the exchanges will make more money
2010-12-22 17:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what the direction
2010-12-22 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just looked at NYX and it's still consolidating
2010-12-22 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't understand that one
2010-12-22 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NDAQ is trending higher
2010-12-22 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from 18 to 24 in 4 months
2010-12-22 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll have plenty of time over the next week or so to look and watch
2010-12-22 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're very quiet Lew...whatcha thinking?
2010-12-22 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he must be watching his trades
2010-12-22 17:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll talk tomorrow
2010-12-22 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-12-22 17:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-12-22 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a good trading day tomorrow
2010-12-22 17:56:01 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thx
2010-12-22 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you don't make it tomorrow
2010-12-22 17:56:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just listening closely
2010-12-22 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a great holiday!
2010-12-22 17:56:13 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2010-12-22 17:56:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks. You too.
2010-12-22 17:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-12-22 17:56:20 [Message] manuj -> Chat: u 2!!!

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