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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,515
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-21 16:00:32 fib1618: good day
2015-12-21 16:00:35 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-21 16:02:02 thespookyone: Very Well, and you?
2015-12-21 16:02:13 fib1618: doing fine
2015-12-21 16:02:22 fib1618: getting ready for inventory [tongue]
2015-12-21 16:02:42 thespookyone: man, I always hated that [frown]
2015-12-21 16:03:20 fib1618: I'm pretty much over it too...but Uncle Sam needs his dough
2015-12-21 16:03:40 thespookyone: will he let you keep any? LOL
2015-12-21 16:04:03 fib1618: naw...if it's in stock, it's taxed as goods sold
2015-12-21 16:04:23 fib1618: that's why businesses cut their inventory very lean at the end of their fiscal year
2015-12-21 16:04:38 thespookyone: I remember those days
2015-12-21 16:05:21 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we rummage through the data??
2015-12-21 16:10:25 fib1618: ISEE at 56
2015-12-21 16:10:32 thespookyone: wow
2015-12-21 16:10:50 fib1618: and they got blown at the close [smile]
2015-12-21 16:11:08 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get crackin'
2015-12-21 16:11:14 thespookyone: of course [smile]
2015-12-21 16:11:41 fib1618: after moving to the -49 level on Friday
2015-12-21 16:11:59 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO provided us with a obligatory bounce off natural support
2015-12-21 16:12:46 fib1618: so we have our first textural bottom above a bottom in place
2015-12-21 16:13:25 fib1618: with some borderline price divergence thrown in just to make it interesting
2015-12-21 16:13:48 fib1618: current reading on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now at -378
2015-12-21 16:14:09 fib1618: so we're about 122 data points from reaching our technical objective of a -500
2015-12-21 16:14:35 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-12-21 16:14:49 fib1618: and here we bounced today off a reading of -33
2015-12-21 16:15:16 fib1618: and came up a point short from eclipsing the MCO highs of last week
2015-12-21 16:15:35 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:16:00 fib1618: and here we see that we're now trying to hold in and around the -250 level with a reading today of -256
2015-12-21 16:16:37 fib1618: any upside follow through on Tuesday
2015-12-21 16:16:49 fib1618: would likely close the price pattern gap from last Friday
2015-12-21 16:17:16 fib1618: while this MCO fulfills its expectation of a snapback to its zero line which it failed to accomplish last week
2015-12-21 16:17:46 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO bounced off the -28 level today
2015-12-21 16:18:06 fib1618: and wound up 5 data points below last Wednesday's highs
2015-12-21 16:18:12 fib1618: note that so far
2015-12-21 16:18:24 fib1618: that with Thursday and Friday's sell off
2015-12-21 16:18:40 fib1618: this was not confirmed by the NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's
2015-12-21 16:18:43 fib1618: and, in fact, their pullbacks were very shallow
2015-12-21 16:19:11 fib1618: indicating that there's not a whole lot of sellers out there right now
2015-12-21 16:19:30 fib1618: in spite of being teased into doing so with the back to back late week declines
2015-12-21 16:20:01 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:20:26 fib1618: and we see that money continues to be moving out the market
2015-12-21 16:20:45 fib1618: but it's amplitude in doing so remains quite reserved
2015-12-21 16:21:16 fib1618: inside range day on the NASDAQ today
2015-12-21 16:21:29 fib1618: so with the slimmest of divergences on Friday
2015-12-21 16:21:41 fib1618: one would expect some upside follow through on Tuesday
2015-12-21 16:22:06 fib1618: which would also co-ordinate with a full on snapback to the NASDAQ breadth MCO zero line
2015-12-21 16:22:41 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO bounced off the -61 level today
2015-12-21 16:22:58 fib1618: and settled with a -15
2015-12-21 16:23:29 fib1618: while the 10% Component has also snapped back toward the 5% Component
2015-12-21 16:23:35 fib1618: while both remain below their zero lines
2015-12-21 16:23:59 fib1618: add to the mixture that the NDX breadth MCSUM has a reading of +45
2015-12-21 16:24:29 fib1618: and any continued firmness on Tuesday might be part of the MCSUM attempting to hold at the zero line
2015-12-21 16:25:00 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO bounced off the -67 level today
2015-12-21 16:25:18 fib1618: winding back at just above the -25 level with a reading of -24
2015-12-21 16:25:27 fib1618: could be a good place to back off a bit
2015-12-21 16:25:29 fib1618: then again
2015-12-21 16:25:53 fib1618: could also a good place to burst through natural resistance in the pattern structure and then challenge the zero line
2015-12-21 16:27:01 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also bounced higher today off of a reading of -68
2015-12-21 16:27:36 fib1618: and this puts the OEX breadth MCSUM close to its downside target of around the -500 level (-463)
2015-12-21 16:28:23 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO bounced off the -64 level
2015-12-21 16:29:25 fib1618: while the sellers are showing very little in the way of conviction right now as measured by the congested downside postings seen on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:29:58 fib1618: inside range day on the MID
2015-12-21 16:30:36 fib1618: while the MID breadth MCO bounced off the highly "oversold" level of -72
2015-12-21 16:30:52 fib1618: market looks to be attempting to get into sync here
2015-12-21 16:31:18 fib1618: while today's bounce had the MID breadth MCSUM move down and through its zero line
2015-12-21 16:31:31 fib1618: not a lot of action was seen price wise
2015-12-21 16:31:49 fib1618: seems that once it was a given that the market wasn't going to sell off in the last hour
2015-12-21 16:31:55 fib1618: shorts ran for cover
2015-12-21 16:32:13 fib1618: and why prices took off into the close
2015-12-21 16:32:57 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO had a pop off the -64 level today
2015-12-21 16:33:23 fib1618: but here we didn't generate any bullish divergence on Friday
2015-12-21 16:33:36 fib1618: this then suggests that whatever may take place for the rest of the week
2015-12-21 16:34:14 fib1618: the odds will be very high that another downside retest will be seen before any resemblance of an uptrend begins
2015-12-21 16:35:10 fib1618: with the best or worse thing that could happen (all dependent on which side you're rooting for)
2015-12-21 16:35:24 fib1618: is that because of the light volume week ahead
2015-12-21 16:35:32 fib1618: we could be setting up for an SOB pattern
2015-12-21 16:35:53 fib1618: where we rally to match the highs of last Wednesday
2015-12-21 16:36:03 fib1618: and then plunge south after leaving the double top behind
2015-12-21 16:36:21 fib1618: hard to say at this point
2015-12-21 16:36:40 thespookyone: sounds fun to me
2015-12-21 16:36:45 fib1618: as several things would need to take place, or more correctly NOT take place, for this to happen
2015-12-21 16:36:49 fib1618: could be
2015-12-21 16:37:08 fib1618: we have the sharp decline from the beginning of December
2015-12-21 16:37:11 fib1618: one top up
2015-12-21 16:37:19 fib1618: slam lower
2015-12-21 16:37:29 fib1618: and the 2nd top exhaustion would do it
2015-12-21 16:37:48 fib1618: given that the MID and SML are leading the pattern lower
2015-12-21 16:37:55 fib1618: it's something that could happen
2015-12-21 16:38:18 fib1618: wonder how Disney did today?
2015-12-21 16:38:21 fib1618: one sec
2015-12-21 16:38:39 fib1618: well...that's not good
2015-12-21 16:38:50 fib1618: down 1%
2015-12-21 16:38:51 fib1618: and closed below its 200 day EMA
2015-12-21 16:39:13 fib1618: and this on the back of a record weekend at the box office with Star Wars?
2015-12-21 16:39:24 fib1618: hmmm...tough crowd
2015-12-21 16:39:41 fib1618: and look at that volume expansion
2015-12-21 16:39:43 fib1618: sell the news?
2015-12-21 16:39:49 fib1618: ...but I digress
2015-12-21 16:41:01 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO bounced off the -29 level
2015-12-21 16:41:21 fib1618: and wound up 2 points short of matching last week's high point
2015-12-21 16:41:27 tuna: Is there bullish price/ mco divergence on the Dow and Mid?
2015-12-21 16:41:44 fib1618: there is on several indices tonight
2015-12-21 16:41:53 fib1618: but the SML isn't diverging
2015-12-21 16:42:11 fib1618: like what was mentioned over the weekend
2015-12-21 16:42:24 fib1618: breadth of market did NOT lead Thursday's and Friday's declines
2015-12-21 16:42:32 fib1618: so either we have to reset before moving lower still
2015-12-21 16:42:50 fib1618: or we have some sort of bottom in place that will probably last until early January
2015-12-21 16:43:01 fib1618: today's action was sloppy
2015-12-21 16:43:09 fib1618: which is a tell right there
2015-12-21 16:43:19 fib1618: as the market tried twice to rally
2015-12-21 16:43:23 fib1618: but couldn't hold the gains
2015-12-21 16:43:38 fib1618: telling us that we continue "heavy" right now
2015-12-21 16:43:44 thespookyone: sellers didn't have much either, though
2015-12-21 16:43:53 fib1618: and it was only in the last 1/2 hour that the shorts covered
2015-12-21 16:43:58 fib1618: neither side did
2015-12-21 16:44:12 fib1618: as we touched on last Thursday
2015-12-21 16:44:28 fib1618: it could turn out to be a ho hum week because of how the holiday's fall this year
2015-12-21 16:44:38 fib1618: one thing's for sure
2015-12-21 16:44:55 fib1618: those record amounts of open front month put options sure did have a drag on things
2015-12-21 16:45:17 fib1618: so...
2015-12-21 16:45:19 fib1618: at this point
2015-12-21 16:45:35 fib1618: the market attempted to reflex higher at the open
2015-12-21 16:45:39 fib1618: failed to hold the gains
2015-12-21 16:45:49 fib1618: moved back to unchanged
2015-12-21 16:46:00 fib1618: and once there was no downside follow through
2015-12-21 16:46:04 fib1618: the shorts covered
2015-12-21 16:46:06 fib1618: got to tell you
2015-12-21 16:46:12 fib1618: this is very typical bear market action
2015-12-21 16:46:30 fib1618: with very little in the way of buyer support
2015-12-21 16:46:44 fib1618: now...with the holiday's fast approaching
2015-12-21 16:46:55 fib1618: if there isn't any sell off by noon tomorrow
2015-12-21 16:47:04 fib1618: we'll probably see another short covering rally into the close
2015-12-21 16:47:10 fib1618: and that will probably do it
2015-12-21 16:47:18 fib1618: is Thursday half day?
2015-12-21 16:47:24 thespookyone: yes
2015-12-21 16:47:29 fib1618: then for sure
2015-12-21 16:47:45 fib1618: unless there's something economic coming on Wednesday
2015-12-21 16:48:26 fib1618: it's probably going to be a sleepy week of trading
2015-12-21 16:48:41 fib1618: let's see how volume did today
2015-12-21 16:49:06 rite01: durable goods, personal income and new  home sales
2015-12-21 16:49:23 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's remain in sync right now
2015-12-21 16:49:29 fib1618: on  Wednesday?
2015-12-21 16:49:40 rite01: yes
2015-12-21 16:49:58 fib1618: don't see anything there
2015-12-21 16:50:19 rite01: my site has them listed
2015-12-21 16:50:28 fib1618: well...they've been faded for the last several months
2015-12-21 16:50:50 fib1618: that should be: I don't see anything with the stats that would move the market
2015-12-21 16:50:53 fib1618: sorry for the confusion
2015-12-21 16:52:02 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's moved just below their -500 levels today
2015-12-21 16:52:30 fib1618: maybe we're going to just sit there for the next few days
2015-12-21 16:52:45 fib1618: as the MCO's finish their snapbacks to their zero lines
2015-12-21 16:53:27 fib1618: the sell off late last week was heavily biased toward the NDX
2015-12-21 16:53:53 tuna: and the Dow
2015-12-21 16:54:02 fib1618: as the NDX volume MCO actually challenged lows of last week
2015-12-21 16:54:09 fib1618: bouncing off the -50 level in the process
2015-12-21 16:54:44 fib1618: you can see the lack of selling that came with last week's declines
2015-12-21 16:55:04 fib1618: probably suggesting that most of it was biased with OPEX
2015-12-21 16:56:29 fib1618: more like the OEX than the Dow, Joe, if we're looking at the volume MCO as a reference
2015-12-21 16:57:05 fib1618: but definitely it was the top 100 issues that were the albatross on the market
2015-12-21 16:57:14 fib1618: which would again fit with the OPEX idea
2015-12-21 16:57:58 fib1618: nope...not a lot of down volume at all with the late week sell off
2015-12-21 16:58:13 fib1618: in any event
2015-12-21 16:58:24 fib1618: we got pretty much what were expecting today
2015-12-21 16:58:58 fib1618: though the lack of being to hold the gains off a "oversold", and in some cases a divergent, reflex rally is troubling for the buyers
2015-12-21 16:59:37 fib1618: and with the SML not providing an across the board market divergence
2015-12-21 17:00:02 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that we're going to see lower price lows in this current sequence before all is said and done
2015-12-21 17:00:07 fib1618: ideally
2015-12-21 17:00:14 fib1618: we want clean divergence
2015-12-21 17:00:33 fib1618: not any of this "by the slimmest of margins" type
2015-12-21 17:00:46 fib1618: and if tomorrow is as mundane as today
2015-12-21 17:00:55 fib1618: we won't know much until next week
2015-12-21 17:01:23 fib1618: CVI's remain flat
2015-12-21 17:01:40 fib1618: we'll call the same with the STVO's
2015-12-21 17:01:55 fib1618: while the VTO's continue to probe for some support
2015-12-21 17:02:07 fib1618: not much there to work with
2015-12-21 17:02:30 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .88
2015-12-21 17:02:33 fib1618: neutral
2015-12-21 17:02:54 fib1618: Open 10 back to highly "oversold" at 1.15
2015-12-21 17:03:10 fib1618: also of note
2015-12-21 17:03:21 fib1618: the 4 day SMA of the NYSE TRIN is now "oversold" for the first time since the September lows...so let's keep and eye on that
2015-12-21 17:03:54 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .59
2015-12-21 17:04:06 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2015-12-21 17:04:37 fib1618: TM TRIN at .68
2015-12-21 17:04:47 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.05
2015-12-21 17:04:54 fib1618: so....
2015-12-21 17:05:17 fib1618: the Open 10's suggest that we're likely to remain buoyant in and around current price levels near term
2015-12-21 17:05:59 fib1618: while the raw numbers suggest that today's advance was on the back of shorts covering their open positions once it became obvious that there wasn't going to be a Black Monday event
2015-12-21 17:06:18 fib1618: since we're a little early
2015-12-21 17:06:45 fib1618: let me take a moment and look around at the sectors...something that we haven't done in a while...to see whose leading and lagging
2015-12-21 17:09:40 fib1618: pretty amazing to see that most of the sector charts are moving sideways...EMA's are compact as well
2015-12-21 17:09:45 fib1618: so a BIG move is coming soon
2015-12-21 17:10:09 fib1618: commodities continue VERY weak
2015-12-21 17:11:00 fib1618: clean energy shares are doing very well
2015-12-21 17:11:11 fib1618: PBW
2015-12-21 17:11:50 fib1618: high volume reversal on UNG today
2015-12-21 17:12:04 fib1618: chart action though remains very negative
2015-12-21 17:12:14 tuna: where are the sectors located on sc?
2015-12-21 17:12:56 fib1618: these are my personal charts...sorry, I wasn't clear
2015-12-21 17:13:01 tuna: OK
2015-12-21 17:13:05 fib1618: I have about 500 of them
2015-12-21 17:13:26 tuna: that's a lot
2015-12-21 17:13:52 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-21 17:14:01 fib1618: I have to cull them soon
2015-12-21 17:14:11 fib1618: I usually do that at the end of the year
2015-12-21 17:14:22 fib1618: primarily they are ETF's of sectors
2015-12-21 17:14:25 fib1618: and global markets
2015-12-21 17:14:31 fib1618: just to get a feel on things
2015-12-21 17:14:45 fib1618: natural resources remains weak
2015-12-21 17:14:54 fib1618: as do the materials sector
2015-12-21 17:15:02 fib1618: not much happening yet in the PM stocks
2015-12-21 17:15:09 fib1618: though they're showing promise internally
2015-12-21 17:15:34 fib1618: time to watch REIT's again
2015-12-21 17:15:37 fib1618: MORT and REM
2015-12-21 17:15:54 fib1618: Retail looks sick
2015-12-21 17:16:33 fib1618: I checked 3 times on Sunday about the MID being at weekly lows not seen since October of 2014...couldn't believe it
2015-12-21 17:16:57 fib1618: market indices are highly compressed here
2015-12-21 17:17:14 fib1618: but holding above their 200 day EMA...by and large
2015-12-21 17:17:17 fib1618: problem is
2015-12-21 17:17:24 fib1618: the NYA is not looking all that well
2015-12-21 17:18:24 fib1618: ready for this?
2015-12-21 17:18:51 fib1618: the TMX Group exchange is down 26% since December 7th
2015-12-21 17:19:01 fib1618: THAT's how bad Canadian issues are trading
2015-12-21 17:19:27 fib1618: symbol X.TO on StockCharts
2015-12-21 17:19:35 tuna: deflation?
2015-12-21 17:19:55 fib1618: Commodity...yes
2015-12-21 17:20:13 fib1618: both Canada and Australia are Earth Commodity based economies
2015-12-21 17:20:35 tuna: brutal
2015-12-21 17:20:41 fib1618: Dow Jones Composite Index looks to be working a rounding top structure
2015-12-21 17:20:51 fib1618: $DJA
2015-12-21 17:20:56 fib1618: that's the old Dow 65 index
2015-12-21 17:21:34 fib1618: looks like the market is being suspended in mid air
2015-12-21 17:21:59 fib1618: computer disk drives are very weak
2015-12-21 17:22:28 fib1618: down 22% since the beginning of November
2015-12-21 17:22:36 fib1618: $DDX
2015-12-21 17:23:08 fib1618: so is Computer Hardware
2015-12-21 17:23:10 fib1618: $GHA
2015-12-21 17:23:47 fib1618: doesn't look like a bottom in Natural Gas at this point
2015-12-21 17:24:00 fib1618: wonder why UNG was sharply higher?
2015-12-21 17:24:16 fib1618: $XNG doesn't show the same volatility
2015-12-21 17:24:39 fib1618: Oil exploration is getting clobbered
2015-12-21 17:24:47 fib1618: $EPX
2015-12-21 17:25:12 fib1618: the whole energy sector...wonder how XLE did today?
2015-12-21 17:25:28 fib1618: reached $59
2015-12-21 17:25:31 fib1618: attempting to hold
2015-12-21 17:26:08 fib1618: XAU turned away at its 20 day EMA today
2015-12-21 17:26:13 fib1618: that's not a good sign
2015-12-21 17:26:32 fib1618: HUI couldn't hold above it either
2015-12-21 17:26:40 fib1618: maybe one more purge there is needed
2015-12-21 17:26:50 fib1618: GDM too
2015-12-21 17:27:15 fib1618: so many trading ranges
2015-12-21 17:27:38 fib1618: and those that aren't in a range are slipping lower
2015-12-21 17:27:45 fib1618: nobody cares
2015-12-21 17:28:30 fib1618: internationals are weak
2015-12-21 17:28:46 fib1618: Europe especially
2015-12-21 17:28:54 fib1618: not getting a good feeling there
2015-12-21 17:29:17 fib1618: Latin America too
2015-12-21 17:29:40 fib1618: ah oh...
2015-12-21 17:29:49 fib1618: something may be going on in Spain
2015-12-21 17:30:14 fib1618: closed below its September lows today (EWP)
2015-12-21 17:30:33 fib1618: nothing looking good
2015-12-21 17:31:02 fib1618: insurance looks weak
2015-12-21 17:32:16 fib1618: something going on at Bank of Internet...down 50% in 2 months
2015-12-21 17:32:56 fib1618: Staples taking it on the chin too
2015-12-21 17:33:00 fib1618: so is Fed EX
2015-12-21 17:33:09 fib1618: and we're being told that business is good?
2015-12-21 17:34:51 fib1618: boy...the global indexes are flat to corrective right now
2015-12-21 17:35:23 fib1618: Canadian Dollar is plunging
2015-12-21 17:35:38 fib1618: lowest level since 2004
2015-12-21 17:36:15 fib1618: the Euro remains at 12 year lows as well
2015-12-21 17:36:59 fib1618: Tel Aviv 100 has been strong
2015-12-21 17:37:16 fib1618: Istanbul 100 as well
2015-12-21 17:37:29 fib1618: so the lesson here is...
2015-12-21 17:37:36 fib1618: if there's talk of war
2015-12-21 17:37:39 fib1618: buy stocks
2015-12-21 17:38:07 fib1618: and that's about it
2015-12-21 17:38:12 fib1618: a lot of sideways action
2015-12-21 17:38:20 fib1618: but with a bearish bias
2015-12-21 17:38:26 fib1618: and to think
2015-12-21 17:38:43 fib1618: that the printing presses are full on everywhere on the planet except here
2015-12-21 17:38:54 fib1618: and STILL markets look lethargic
2015-12-21 17:39:07 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-21 17:39:55 fib1618: remember that we have our usual chat tomorrow before we break for Christmas
2015-12-21 17:40:18 fib1618: hopefully we'll have something to talk about [smile]
2015-12-21 17:40:44 fib1618: if you folks have any questions at all, or would like to share ideas, please know that you are always free to do so
2015-12-21 17:41:33 tuna: Do you look at the S&P 1500
2015-12-21 17:41:38 fib1618: sure
2015-12-21 17:41:45 fib1618: it's like the DJA
2015-12-21 17:42:07 tuna: it's lacking on sc
2015-12-21 17:42:52 fib1618: well...the components that make it up, SPX, MID and SML are sagging here
2015-12-21 17:43:02 fib1618: especially the last two baskets
2015-12-21 17:43:29 rite01: you still considering interactive chart site in the future?
2015-12-21 17:43:46 fib1618: I tried it out here
2015-12-21 17:44:04 fib1618: I'm waiting a bit as there also another piece of software that I was told about
2015-12-21 17:44:09 fib1618: but need to work on that as well
2015-12-21 17:44:16 fib1618: the biggest problems is
2015-12-21 17:44:21 fib1618: no transcripts
2015-12-21 17:44:39 fib1618: and that's a deal killer since many rely on the chat review
2015-12-21 17:45:00 fib1618: like you, as an example
2015-12-21 17:45:02 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-21 17:45:12 rite01: just copy paste after the session and sometimes I have to
2015-12-21 17:45:29 fib1618: but the interactive wouldn't give you that option
2015-12-21 17:45:30 rite01: relog in to get whole session.
2015-12-21 17:45:44 fib1618: I'm still looking
2015-12-21 17:46:08 fib1618: hopefully someone develop something that will fit our needs
2015-12-21 17:46:18 rite01: sounds good
2015-12-21 17:46:29 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-12-21 17:46:33 fib1618: I'm going to scoot
2015-12-21 17:46:39 fib1618: everyone have a great evening
2015-12-21 17:46:52 fib1618: and we'll do this all again tomorrow
2015-12-21 17:46:54 fib1618: good night
2015-12-21 17:46:58 rite01: good night all!


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"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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