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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-21 16:00:32 fib1618: good day
2015-12-21 16:00:35 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-21 16:02:02 thespookyone: Very Well, and you?
2015-12-21 16:02:13 fib1618: doing fine
2015-12-21 16:02:22 fib1618: getting ready for inventory [tongue]
2015-12-21 16:02:42 thespookyone: man, I always hated that [frown]
2015-12-21 16:03:20 fib1618: I'm pretty much over it too...but Uncle Sam needs his dough
2015-12-21 16:03:40 thespookyone: will he let you keep any? LOL
2015-12-21 16:04:03 fib1618: naw...if it's in stock, it's taxed as goods sold
2015-12-21 16:04:23 fib1618: that's why businesses cut their inventory very lean at the end of their fiscal year
2015-12-21 16:04:38 thespookyone: I remember those days
2015-12-21 16:05:21 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we rummage through the data??
2015-12-21 16:10:25 fib1618: ISEE at 56
2015-12-21 16:10:32 thespookyone: wow
2015-12-21 16:10:50 fib1618: and they got blown at the close [smile]
2015-12-21 16:11:08 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get crackin'
2015-12-21 16:11:14 thespookyone: of course [smile]
2015-12-21 16:11:41 fib1618: after moving to the -49 level on Friday
2015-12-21 16:11:59 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO provided us with a obligatory bounce off natural support
2015-12-21 16:12:46 fib1618: so we have our first textural bottom above a bottom in place
2015-12-21 16:13:25 fib1618: with some borderline price divergence thrown in just to make it interesting
2015-12-21 16:13:48 fib1618: current reading on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now at -378
2015-12-21 16:14:09 fib1618: so we're about 122 data points from reaching our technical objective of a -500
2015-12-21 16:14:35 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-12-21 16:14:49 fib1618: and here we bounced today off a reading of -33
2015-12-21 16:15:16 fib1618: and came up a point short from eclipsing the MCO highs of last week
2015-12-21 16:15:35 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:16:00 fib1618: and here we see that we're now trying to hold in and around the -250 level with a reading today of -256
2015-12-21 16:16:37 fib1618: any upside follow through on Tuesday
2015-12-21 16:16:49 fib1618: would likely close the price pattern gap from last Friday
2015-12-21 16:17:16 fib1618: while this MCO fulfills its expectation of a snapback to its zero line which it failed to accomplish last week
2015-12-21 16:17:46 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO bounced off the -28 level today
2015-12-21 16:18:06 fib1618: and wound up 5 data points below last Wednesday's highs
2015-12-21 16:18:12 fib1618: note that so far
2015-12-21 16:18:24 fib1618: that with Thursday and Friday's sell off
2015-12-21 16:18:40 fib1618: this was not confirmed by the NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's
2015-12-21 16:18:43 fib1618: and, in fact, their pullbacks were very shallow
2015-12-21 16:19:11 fib1618: indicating that there's not a whole lot of sellers out there right now
2015-12-21 16:19:30 fib1618: in spite of being teased into doing so with the back to back late week declines
2015-12-21 16:20:01 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:20:26 fib1618: and we see that money continues to be moving out the market
2015-12-21 16:20:45 fib1618: but it's amplitude in doing so remains quite reserved
2015-12-21 16:21:16 fib1618: inside range day on the NASDAQ today
2015-12-21 16:21:29 fib1618: so with the slimmest of divergences on Friday
2015-12-21 16:21:41 fib1618: one would expect some upside follow through on Tuesday
2015-12-21 16:22:06 fib1618: which would also co-ordinate with a full on snapback to the NASDAQ breadth MCO zero line
2015-12-21 16:22:41 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO bounced off the -61 level today
2015-12-21 16:22:58 fib1618: and settled with a -15
2015-12-21 16:23:29 fib1618: while the 10% Component has also snapped back toward the 5% Component
2015-12-21 16:23:35 fib1618: while both remain below their zero lines
2015-12-21 16:23:59 fib1618: add to the mixture that the NDX breadth MCSUM has a reading of +45
2015-12-21 16:24:29 fib1618: and any continued firmness on Tuesday might be part of the MCSUM attempting to hold at the zero line
2015-12-21 16:25:00 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO bounced off the -67 level today
2015-12-21 16:25:18 fib1618: winding back at just above the -25 level with a reading of -24
2015-12-21 16:25:27 fib1618: could be a good place to back off a bit
2015-12-21 16:25:29 fib1618: then again
2015-12-21 16:25:53 fib1618: could also a good place to burst through natural resistance in the pattern structure and then challenge the zero line
2015-12-21 16:27:01 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also bounced higher today off of a reading of -68
2015-12-21 16:27:36 fib1618: and this puts the OEX breadth MCSUM close to its downside target of around the -500 level (-463)
2015-12-21 16:28:23 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO bounced off the -64 level
2015-12-21 16:29:25 fib1618: while the sellers are showing very little in the way of conviction right now as measured by the congested downside postings seen on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2015-12-21 16:29:58 fib1618: inside range day on the MID
2015-12-21 16:30:36 fib1618: while the MID breadth MCO bounced off the highly "oversold" level of -72
2015-12-21 16:30:52 fib1618: market looks to be attempting to get into sync here
2015-12-21 16:31:18 fib1618: while today's bounce had the MID breadth MCSUM move down and through its zero line
2015-12-21 16:31:31 fib1618: not a lot of action was seen price wise
2015-12-21 16:31:49 fib1618: seems that once it was a given that the market wasn't going to sell off in the last hour
2015-12-21 16:31:55 fib1618: shorts ran for cover
2015-12-21 16:32:13 fib1618: and why prices took off into the close
2015-12-21 16:32:57 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO had a pop off the -64 level today
2015-12-21 16:33:23 fib1618: but here we didn't generate any bullish divergence on Friday
2015-12-21 16:33:36 fib1618: this then suggests that whatever may take place for the rest of the week
2015-12-21 16:34:14 fib1618: the odds will be very high that another downside retest will be seen before any resemblance of an uptrend begins
2015-12-21 16:35:10 fib1618: with the best or worse thing that could happen (all dependent on which side you're rooting for)
2015-12-21 16:35:24 fib1618: is that because of the light volume week ahead
2015-12-21 16:35:32 fib1618: we could be setting up for an SOB pattern
2015-12-21 16:35:53 fib1618: where we rally to match the highs of last Wednesday
2015-12-21 16:36:03 fib1618: and then plunge south after leaving the double top behind
2015-12-21 16:36:21 fib1618: hard to say at this point
2015-12-21 16:36:40 thespookyone: sounds fun to me
2015-12-21 16:36:45 fib1618: as several things would need to take place, or more correctly NOT take place, for this to happen
2015-12-21 16:36:49 fib1618: could be
2015-12-21 16:37:08 fib1618: we have the sharp decline from the beginning of December
2015-12-21 16:37:11 fib1618: one top up
2015-12-21 16:37:19 fib1618: slam lower
2015-12-21 16:37:29 fib1618: and the 2nd top exhaustion would do it
2015-12-21 16:37:48 fib1618: given that the MID and SML are leading the pattern lower
2015-12-21 16:37:55 fib1618: it's something that could happen
2015-12-21 16:38:18 fib1618: wonder how Disney did today?
2015-12-21 16:38:21 fib1618: one sec
2015-12-21 16:38:39 fib1618: well...that's not good
2015-12-21 16:38:50 fib1618: down 1%
2015-12-21 16:38:51 fib1618: and closed below its 200 day EMA
2015-12-21 16:39:13 fib1618: and this on the back of a record weekend at the box office with Star Wars?
2015-12-21 16:39:24 fib1618: hmmm...tough crowd
2015-12-21 16:39:41 fib1618: and look at that volume expansion
2015-12-21 16:39:43 fib1618: sell the news?
2015-12-21 16:39:49 fib1618: ...but I digress
2015-12-21 16:41:01 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO bounced off the -29 level
2015-12-21 16:41:21 fib1618: and wound up 2 points short of matching last week's high point
2015-12-21 16:41:27 tuna: Is there bullish price/ mco divergence on the Dow and Mid?
2015-12-21 16:41:44 fib1618: there is on several indices tonight
2015-12-21 16:41:53 fib1618: but the SML isn't diverging
2015-12-21 16:42:11 fib1618: like what was mentioned over the weekend
2015-12-21 16:42:24 fib1618: breadth of market did NOT lead Thursday's and Friday's declines
2015-12-21 16:42:32 fib1618: so either we have to reset before moving lower still
2015-12-21 16:42:50 fib1618: or we have some sort of bottom in place that will probably last until early January
2015-12-21 16:43:01 fib1618: today's action was sloppy
2015-12-21 16:43:09 fib1618: which is a tell right there
2015-12-21 16:43:19 fib1618: as the market tried twice to rally
2015-12-21 16:43:23 fib1618: but couldn't hold the gains
2015-12-21 16:43:38 fib1618: telling us that we continue "heavy" right now
2015-12-21 16:43:44 thespookyone: sellers didn't have much either, though
2015-12-21 16:43:53 fib1618: and it was only in the last 1/2 hour that the shorts covered
2015-12-21 16:43:58 fib1618: neither side did
2015-12-21 16:44:12 fib1618: as we touched on last Thursday
2015-12-21 16:44:28 fib1618: it could turn out to be a ho hum week because of how the holiday's fall this year
2015-12-21 16:44:38 fib1618: one thing's for sure
2015-12-21 16:44:55 fib1618: those record amounts of open front month put options sure did have a drag on things
2015-12-21 16:45:17 fib1618: so...
2015-12-21 16:45:19 fib1618: at this point
2015-12-21 16:45:35 fib1618: the market attempted to reflex higher at the open
2015-12-21 16:45:39 fib1618: failed to hold the gains
2015-12-21 16:45:49 fib1618: moved back to unchanged
2015-12-21 16:46:00 fib1618: and once there was no downside follow through
2015-12-21 16:46:04 fib1618: the shorts covered
2015-12-21 16:46:06 fib1618: got to tell you
2015-12-21 16:46:12 fib1618: this is very typical bear market action
2015-12-21 16:46:30 fib1618: with very little in the way of buyer support
2015-12-21 16:46:44 fib1618: now...with the holiday's fast approaching
2015-12-21 16:46:55 fib1618: if there isn't any sell off by noon tomorrow
2015-12-21 16:47:04 fib1618: we'll probably see another short covering rally into the close
2015-12-21 16:47:10 fib1618: and that will probably do it
2015-12-21 16:47:18 fib1618: is Thursday half day?
2015-12-21 16:47:24 thespookyone: yes
2015-12-21 16:47:29 fib1618: then for sure
2015-12-21 16:47:45 fib1618: unless there's something economic coming on Wednesday
2015-12-21 16:48:26 fib1618: it's probably going to be a sleepy week of trading
2015-12-21 16:48:41 fib1618: let's see how volume did today
2015-12-21 16:49:06 rite01: durable goods, personal income and new  home sales
2015-12-21 16:49:23 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's remain in sync right now
2015-12-21 16:49:29 fib1618: on  Wednesday?
2015-12-21 16:49:40 rite01: yes
2015-12-21 16:49:58 fib1618: don't see anything there
2015-12-21 16:50:19 rite01: my site has them listed
2015-12-21 16:50:28 fib1618: well...they've been faded for the last several months
2015-12-21 16:50:50 fib1618: that should be: I don't see anything with the stats that would move the market
2015-12-21 16:50:53 fib1618: sorry for the confusion
2015-12-21 16:52:02 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's moved just below their -500 levels today
2015-12-21 16:52:30 fib1618: maybe we're going to just sit there for the next few days
2015-12-21 16:52:45 fib1618: as the MCO's finish their snapbacks to their zero lines
2015-12-21 16:53:27 fib1618: the sell off late last week was heavily biased toward the NDX
2015-12-21 16:53:53 tuna: and the Dow
2015-12-21 16:54:02 fib1618: as the NDX volume MCO actually challenged lows of last week
2015-12-21 16:54:09 fib1618: bouncing off the -50 level in the process
2015-12-21 16:54:44 fib1618: you can see the lack of selling that came with last week's declines
2015-12-21 16:55:04 fib1618: probably suggesting that most of it was biased with OPEX
2015-12-21 16:56:29 fib1618: more like the OEX than the Dow, Joe, if we're looking at the volume MCO as a reference
2015-12-21 16:57:05 fib1618: but definitely it was the top 100 issues that were the albatross on the market
2015-12-21 16:57:14 fib1618: which would again fit with the OPEX idea
2015-12-21 16:57:58 fib1618: nope...not a lot of down volume at all with the late week sell off
2015-12-21 16:58:13 fib1618: in any event
2015-12-21 16:58:24 fib1618: we got pretty much what were expecting today
2015-12-21 16:58:58 fib1618: though the lack of being to hold the gains off a "oversold", and in some cases a divergent, reflex rally is troubling for the buyers
2015-12-21 16:59:37 fib1618: and with the SML not providing an across the board market divergence
2015-12-21 17:00:02 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that we're going to see lower price lows in this current sequence before all is said and done
2015-12-21 17:00:07 fib1618: ideally
2015-12-21 17:00:14 fib1618: we want clean divergence
2015-12-21 17:00:33 fib1618: not any of this "by the slimmest of margins" type
2015-12-21 17:00:46 fib1618: and if tomorrow is as mundane as today
2015-12-21 17:00:55 fib1618: we won't know much until next week
2015-12-21 17:01:23 fib1618: CVI's remain flat
2015-12-21 17:01:40 fib1618: we'll call the same with the STVO's
2015-12-21 17:01:55 fib1618: while the VTO's continue to probe for some support
2015-12-21 17:02:07 fib1618: not much there to work with
2015-12-21 17:02:30 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .88
2015-12-21 17:02:33 fib1618: neutral
2015-12-21 17:02:54 fib1618: Open 10 back to highly "oversold" at 1.15
2015-12-21 17:03:10 fib1618: also of note
2015-12-21 17:03:21 fib1618: the 4 day SMA of the NYSE TRIN is now "oversold" for the first time since the September let's keep and eye on that
2015-12-21 17:03:54 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .59
2015-12-21 17:04:06 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2015-12-21 17:04:37 fib1618: TM TRIN at .68
2015-12-21 17:04:47 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.05
2015-12-21 17:04:54 fib1618: so....
2015-12-21 17:05:17 fib1618: the Open 10's suggest that we're likely to remain buoyant in and around current price levels near term
2015-12-21 17:05:59 fib1618: while the raw numbers suggest that today's advance was on the back of shorts covering their open positions once it became obvious that there wasn't going to be a Black Monday event
2015-12-21 17:06:18 fib1618: since we're a little early
2015-12-21 17:06:45 fib1618: let me take a moment and look around at the sectors...something that we haven't done in a see whose leading and lagging
2015-12-21 17:09:40 fib1618: pretty amazing to see that most of the sector charts are moving sideways...EMA's are compact as well
2015-12-21 17:09:45 fib1618: so a BIG move is coming soon
2015-12-21 17:10:09 fib1618: commodities continue VERY weak
2015-12-21 17:11:00 fib1618: clean energy shares are doing very well
2015-12-21 17:11:11 fib1618: PBW
2015-12-21 17:11:50 fib1618: high volume reversal on UNG today
2015-12-21 17:12:04 fib1618: chart action though remains very negative
2015-12-21 17:12:14 tuna: where are the sectors located on sc?
2015-12-21 17:12:56 fib1618: these are my personal charts...sorry, I wasn't clear
2015-12-21 17:13:01 tuna: OK
2015-12-21 17:13:05 fib1618: I have about 500 of them
2015-12-21 17:13:26 tuna: that's a lot
2015-12-21 17:13:52 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-21 17:14:01 fib1618: I have to cull them soon
2015-12-21 17:14:11 fib1618: I usually do that at the end of the year
2015-12-21 17:14:22 fib1618: primarily they are ETF's of sectors
2015-12-21 17:14:25 fib1618: and global markets
2015-12-21 17:14:31 fib1618: just to get a feel on things
2015-12-21 17:14:45 fib1618: natural resources remains weak
2015-12-21 17:14:54 fib1618: as do the materials sector
2015-12-21 17:15:02 fib1618: not much happening yet in the PM stocks
2015-12-21 17:15:09 fib1618: though they're showing promise internally
2015-12-21 17:15:34 fib1618: time to watch REIT's again
2015-12-21 17:15:37 fib1618: MORT and REM
2015-12-21 17:15:54 fib1618: Retail looks sick
2015-12-21 17:16:33 fib1618: I checked 3 times on Sunday about the MID being at weekly lows not seen since October of 2014...couldn't believe it
2015-12-21 17:16:57 fib1618: market indices are highly compressed here
2015-12-21 17:17:14 fib1618: but holding above their 200 day and large
2015-12-21 17:17:17 fib1618: problem is
2015-12-21 17:17:24 fib1618: the NYA is not looking all that well
2015-12-21 17:18:24 fib1618: ready for this?
2015-12-21 17:18:51 fib1618: the TMX Group exchange is down 26% since December 7th
2015-12-21 17:19:01 fib1618: THAT's how bad Canadian issues are trading
2015-12-21 17:19:27 fib1618: symbol X.TO on StockCharts
2015-12-21 17:19:35 tuna: deflation?
2015-12-21 17:19:55 fib1618: Commodity...yes
2015-12-21 17:20:13 fib1618: both Canada and Australia are Earth Commodity based economies
2015-12-21 17:20:35 tuna: brutal
2015-12-21 17:20:41 fib1618: Dow Jones Composite Index looks to be working a rounding top structure
2015-12-21 17:20:51 fib1618: $DJA
2015-12-21 17:20:56 fib1618: that's the old Dow 65 index
2015-12-21 17:21:34 fib1618: looks like the market is being suspended in mid air
2015-12-21 17:21:59 fib1618: computer disk drives are very weak
2015-12-21 17:22:28 fib1618: down 22% since the beginning of November
2015-12-21 17:22:36 fib1618: $DDX
2015-12-21 17:23:08 fib1618: so is Computer Hardware
2015-12-21 17:23:10 fib1618: $GHA
2015-12-21 17:23:47 fib1618: doesn't look like a bottom in Natural Gas at this point
2015-12-21 17:24:00 fib1618: wonder why UNG was sharply higher?
2015-12-21 17:24:16 fib1618: $XNG doesn't show the same volatility
2015-12-21 17:24:39 fib1618: Oil exploration is getting clobbered
2015-12-21 17:24:47 fib1618: $EPX
2015-12-21 17:25:12 fib1618: the whole energy sector...wonder how XLE did today?
2015-12-21 17:25:28 fib1618: reached $59
2015-12-21 17:25:31 fib1618: attempting to hold
2015-12-21 17:26:08 fib1618: XAU turned away at its 20 day EMA today
2015-12-21 17:26:13 fib1618: that's not a good sign
2015-12-21 17:26:32 fib1618: HUI couldn't hold above it either
2015-12-21 17:26:40 fib1618: maybe one more purge there is needed
2015-12-21 17:26:50 fib1618: GDM too
2015-12-21 17:27:15 fib1618: so many trading ranges
2015-12-21 17:27:38 fib1618: and those that aren't in a range are slipping lower
2015-12-21 17:27:45 fib1618: nobody cares
2015-12-21 17:28:30 fib1618: internationals are weak
2015-12-21 17:28:46 fib1618: Europe especially
2015-12-21 17:28:54 fib1618: not getting a good feeling there
2015-12-21 17:29:17 fib1618: Latin America too
2015-12-21 17:29:40 fib1618: ah oh...
2015-12-21 17:29:49 fib1618: something may be going on in Spain
2015-12-21 17:30:14 fib1618: closed below its September lows today (EWP)
2015-12-21 17:30:33 fib1618: nothing looking good
2015-12-21 17:31:02 fib1618: insurance looks weak
2015-12-21 17:32:16 fib1618: something going on at Bank of Internet...down 50% in 2 months
2015-12-21 17:32:56 fib1618: Staples taking it on the chin too
2015-12-21 17:33:00 fib1618: so is Fed EX
2015-12-21 17:33:09 fib1618: and we're being told that business is good?
2015-12-21 17:34:51 fib1618: boy...the global indexes are flat to corrective right now
2015-12-21 17:35:23 fib1618: Canadian Dollar is plunging
2015-12-21 17:35:38 fib1618: lowest level since 2004
2015-12-21 17:36:15 fib1618: the Euro remains at 12 year lows as well
2015-12-21 17:36:59 fib1618: Tel Aviv 100 has been strong
2015-12-21 17:37:16 fib1618: Istanbul 100 as well
2015-12-21 17:37:29 fib1618: so the lesson here is...
2015-12-21 17:37:36 fib1618: if there's talk of war
2015-12-21 17:37:39 fib1618: buy stocks
2015-12-21 17:38:07 fib1618: and that's about it
2015-12-21 17:38:12 fib1618: a lot of sideways action
2015-12-21 17:38:20 fib1618: but with a bearish bias
2015-12-21 17:38:26 fib1618: and to think
2015-12-21 17:38:43 fib1618: that the printing presses are full on everywhere on the planet except here
2015-12-21 17:38:54 fib1618: and STILL markets look lethargic
2015-12-21 17:39:07 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-21 17:39:55 fib1618: remember that we have our usual chat tomorrow before we break for Christmas
2015-12-21 17:40:18 fib1618: hopefully we'll have something to talk about [smile]
2015-12-21 17:40:44 fib1618: if you folks have any questions at all, or would like to share ideas, please know that you are always free to do so
2015-12-21 17:41:33 tuna: Do you look at the S&P 1500
2015-12-21 17:41:38 fib1618: sure
2015-12-21 17:41:45 fib1618: it's like the DJA
2015-12-21 17:42:07 tuna: it's lacking on sc
2015-12-21 17:42:52 fib1618: well...the components that make it up, SPX, MID and SML are sagging here
2015-12-21 17:43:02 fib1618: especially the last two baskets
2015-12-21 17:43:29 rite01: you still considering interactive chart site in the future?
2015-12-21 17:43:46 fib1618: I tried it out here
2015-12-21 17:44:04 fib1618: I'm waiting a bit as there also another piece of software that I was told about
2015-12-21 17:44:09 fib1618: but need to work on that as well
2015-12-21 17:44:16 fib1618: the biggest problems is
2015-12-21 17:44:21 fib1618: no transcripts
2015-12-21 17:44:39 fib1618: and that's a deal killer since many rely on the chat review
2015-12-21 17:45:00 fib1618: like you, as an example
2015-12-21 17:45:02 fib1618: [smile]
2015-12-21 17:45:12 rite01: just copy paste after the session and sometimes I have to
2015-12-21 17:45:29 fib1618: but the interactive wouldn't give you that option
2015-12-21 17:45:30 rite01: relog in to get whole session.
2015-12-21 17:45:44 fib1618: I'm still looking
2015-12-21 17:46:08 fib1618: hopefully someone develop something that will fit our needs
2015-12-21 17:46:18 rite01: sounds good
2015-12-21 17:46:29 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-12-21 17:46:33 fib1618: I'm going to scoot
2015-12-21 17:46:39 fib1618: everyone have a great evening
2015-12-21 17:46:52 fib1618: and we'll do this all again tomorrow
2015-12-21 17:46:54 fib1618: good night
2015-12-21 17:46:58 rite01: good night all!

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