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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-02 15:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-02 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-02 16:00:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Good, thx, and you?
2010-12-02 16:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine and dandy
2010-12-02 16:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we get started tonight
2010-12-02 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to fulfill part of a promise for Sam and Tonny
2010-12-02 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the MCSUM for the Aussie market - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/mcsumaus112610.gif
2010-12-02 16:02:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Nice call, Fib, this Tuesday
2010-12-02 16:03:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure was
2010-12-02 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that the data you're seeing is through last week
2010-12-02 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thanks go to the indicators...I'm just a mere conduit
2010-12-02 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Aussie market, because of the time difference, the data is through last Thursday
2010-12-02 16:04:24 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good Conduit!
2010-12-02 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point though on this MCSUM is that, more than likely, we turned higher just as the MCSUM hit its zero line this week
2010-12-02 16:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the lack of selling at the last top...and the acceleration of selling as we moved into the zero line
2010-12-02 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a sign of a final wash out IF we bounced (first of all) and then we're able to continue climb (2nd of all) and not stall out at the +200 to +250 level
2010-12-02 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the position of the A/D line itself
2010-12-02 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's in a rising configuration
2010-12-02 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the Aussie MCSUM has been declining, meaning that the 19 day and 39 day EMA's have moved closer together, in the larger context, this is a correctional structure in the total market itself
2010-12-02 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next...the DAX breadth MCSUM through Friday - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/mcsumdax112610.gif
2010-12-02 16:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCSUM has shown some resistance at the early summer highs
2010-12-02 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the lack of selling by the bears during this time
2010-12-02 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the DAX A/D line...it is also in a rising configuration
2010-12-02 16:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we might conclude with the lack of dot expansion in either direction on the DAX MCSUM
2010-12-02 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line itself has been going sideways
2010-12-02 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...the FTSE breadth MCSUM through last Friday - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/mcsumftse112610.gif
2010-12-02 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any one remember what it means when the MCSUM goes through the zero line?
2010-12-02 16:11:29 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Balance of buyers and sellers
2010-12-02 16:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCSUM goes down and through the zero line....?
2010-12-02 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what it's measuring
2010-12-02 16:12:25 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Sellers have upper hand?
2010-12-02 16:12:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sellers to buyers
2010-12-02 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...overall
2010-12-02 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the best answer is that it means that the 19 day EMA has crossed down and is now below the 39 day EMA
2010-12-02 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at a price chart
2010-12-02 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a short term MA moving below one of an intermediate time period
2010-12-02 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what does it suggest to the chartist?
2010-12-02 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the simple answer is...it depends
2010-12-02 16:14:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The EMA on the Advance decline?
2010-12-02 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it depends on the direction of the item being measured
2010-12-02 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-02 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we work with the McClellan's we are working with the TRENDS of the A/D line
2010-12-02 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a short term TREND of 19 days and an intermediate term TREND of 39 days
2010-12-02 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a smoothing component of the direction of the A/D line itself
2010-12-02 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...what we know from the chat is...
2010-12-02 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA of the FTSE A/D line has been weak enough to move below the 39 day period of the this same measurement
2010-12-02 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...is it a sell signal?
2010-12-02 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that would depend on the direction of what's being measured, wouldn't it?
2010-12-02 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we look at the FTSE A/D line and apply a simple trendline to the structure
2010-12-02 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it rising or falling?
2010-12-02 16:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there bottoms above bottoms or tops beneath tops??
2010-12-02 16:17:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: rising
2010-12-02 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so it's rising
2010-12-02 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the overall trend of money is moving INTO the markets
2010-12-02 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the short term trend is down and weaker than the intermediate term trend
2010-12-02 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be rated a HOLD on any further long exposure and not a sell
2010-12-02 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is a correction
2010-12-02 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a correction where its job is to revert to the A/D lines "mean"
2010-12-02 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in this case, is the rising bottoms line shown on the chart
2010-12-02 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of analysis is more important to investors as it would be to traders
2010-12-02 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but traders also need to know this information so that proper allocation methods can be applied
2010-12-02 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for instance...you wouldn't want to go "all in" on the short side with the MCSUM declining here
2010-12-02 16:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would only be for as long as the short term trend will allow
2010-12-02 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all likely hood the intermediate term trend is either still rising or has gone flat
2010-12-02 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where the "250 rule" comes into play
2010-12-02 16:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we usually see is when the MCSUM moves below -250
2010-12-02 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is then a very good bet that the 39 day EMA has now joined the 19 day EMA in this same direction
2010-12-02 16:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the -500 level would be no doubt
2010-12-02 16:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually, when the data gets this high
2010-12-02 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any trend in the A/D line that was in force is usually violated at this juncture
2010-12-02 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...the +500 levels are areas are that of "escape velocity"
2010-12-02 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are corresponding to a break in trend as it applies directly to the A/D line itself
2010-12-02 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...my expectation for this week is
2010-12-02 16:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the FTSE will had probably bottomed in around the -250 level
2010-12-02 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now in the process of attempting to snap back to its zero line
2010-12-02 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean
2010-12-02 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rate of decline in the 10% trend has slowed so that the 5% trend can now play catch up OR the 10% Trend is snapping back to the 5% Trend itself for a technical snapback "kiss"
2010-12-02 16:26:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: IF the chart is from last week it is probably at the -500 level now
2010-12-02 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...now you have an idea of what's going on in the three markets covered
2010-12-02 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-12-02 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-02 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was from Friday
2010-12-02 16:26:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ftse looks dicey
2010-12-02 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when did the market turn around this week?
2010-12-02 16:26:40 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: FTSE MCSUM was -251 yesterday and -228 today
2010-12-02 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2010-12-02 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the -250 level
2010-12-02 16:26:59 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK. Thanks
2010-12-02 16:26:59 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: 5% and 10 % crossed upwards today
2010-12-02 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (jaw dropping, isn't it?)
2010-12-02 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-02 16:27:21 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Dead on, Jeez!
2010-12-02 16:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that since the MCSUM is measuring a longer term period of Trend for the A/D line
2010-12-02 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be slower to turn
2010-12-02 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as a Cunard Cruise ship would be in the middle of the Atlantic
2010-12-02 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fun stuff, eh?
2010-12-02 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always ORDER in what may only look chaotic
2010-12-02 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-12-02 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during bull market sequences
2010-12-02 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see the MCSUM move above the +500 level to confirm this sequence
2010-12-02 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then once it's overextended
2010-12-02 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will find a way to find parity first (the zero line)
2010-12-02 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will then usually find support at the -250 level
2010-12-02 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the 10% component that we look at DP moving below its zero line
2010-12-02 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% first bouncing off this line, and then moving slightly below the line to compliment the 10%
2010-12-02 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see this it is then when we have our first anticipated tradable bottom that can be created
2010-12-02 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that
2010-12-02 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough excesses have been taken from where the bulls (in this case) where they can now re-initiate control because of the increase of bearish sentiment that goes along with it
2010-12-02 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a matter of physics to produce a response
2010-12-02 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the proverbial pendulum
2010-12-02 16:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we go back and forth at varying degrees of trend
2010-12-02 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...with this example
2010-12-02 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the sever amount of bearishness we saw in 2009
2010-12-02 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see the equal and opposite euphoria before we're likely to see an important top
2010-12-02 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the basis of everything Elliott
2010-12-02 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back and forth
2010-12-02 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every day
2010-12-02 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every week
2010-12-02 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every month
2010-12-02 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's so important to understand the DEGREE of Trend before making good forecasts
2010-12-02 16:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...there you have it
2010-12-02 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-02 16:34:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well put
2010-12-02 16:34:59 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Great stuff, thanks
2010-12-02 16:35:16 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes, thanks
2010-12-02 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-12-02 16:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after creating minimal bull divergence on Tuesday
2010-12-02 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is now back above its zero line
2010-12-02 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price chart
2010-12-02 16:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear, on a cursory view, that we have now retraced about 62% of the total November decline
2010-12-02 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this MCO just barely moving above the zero line
2010-12-02 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is that we may have finished "filling the vacuum" that we talked about on Tuesday
2010-12-02 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback to the zero line
2010-12-02 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we look at the components
2010-12-02 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that not only are both components back above their zero line
2010-12-02 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have a cross over buy signal as well
2010-12-02 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-12-02 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it turned up today
2010-12-02 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was because....?
2010-12-02 16:41:42 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: MCO got over zero
2010-12-02 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2010-12-02 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold star
2010-12-02 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-02 16:41:56 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-12-02 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reasonable expectation here though is that we have gone too far and too fast
2010-12-02 16:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to a breadth thrust
2010-12-02 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2010-12-02 16:42:28 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Happy to hear that. I shorted the close
2010-12-02 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2010-12-02 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-12-02 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh man
2010-12-02 16:42:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Short term trade
2010-12-02 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just because it might not be a breadth thrust
2010-12-02 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean that it's got the energy to move lower at this stage
2010-12-02 16:43:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: does it look like one to you?
2010-12-02 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember Newton's second law of motion?
2010-12-02 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things remain in motion UNTIL an opposing motion is applied
2010-12-02 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...your bet here is that we exhausted our move after two days
2010-12-02 16:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...not a bad premise
2010-12-02 16:44:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What about the breadth thrust?
2010-12-02 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but wouldn't it be more consistent to see the markets sag as they went along and not hold on to, or lack the force, to move in the opposite direction?
2010-12-02 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what about it?
2010-12-02 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I'm trying to convey to you
2010-12-02 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you may have jumped the gun here
2010-12-02 16:45:33 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I understand.
2010-12-02 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just because we couldn't go up again, could we?
2010-12-02 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know me well enough by now
2010-12-02 16:45:48 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-12-02 16:45:56 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I guess that is part of it
2010-12-02 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want everyone here to be successful
2010-12-02 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's your experience
2010-12-02 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (or lack of it)
2010-12-02 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline is so important here
2010-12-02 16:46:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: key
2010-12-02 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did the same thing
2010-12-02 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ALL have
2010-12-02 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some of us...we still do
2010-12-02 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard
2010-12-02 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we WANT to be right
2010-12-02 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we WANT to say I got the swing
2010-12-02 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ego
2010-12-02 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we want to do here with this information
2010-12-02 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to first understand why and what it is
2010-12-02 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then apply it in a way that increases our odds of success
2010-12-02 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most times that means we have to wait for a CIT to be confirmed
2010-12-02 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...we get stuck holding the trade
2010-12-02 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then second guess ourselves
2010-12-02 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then our emotions won't let us be wrong
2010-12-02 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...it's just a vicious cycle
2010-12-02 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I hope you have stops in place here and the trade goes well
2010-12-02 16:49:14 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks Fib, I think I have ego problems...
2010-12-02 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all do dude
2010-12-02 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all competitive
2010-12-02 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what makes the markets
2010-12-02 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line is
2010-12-02 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't have to have a trade every second
2010-12-02 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every day
2010-12-02 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every week
2010-12-02 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to wait for the set up
2010-12-02 16:50:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the middle 80% spends best, anyway
2010-12-02 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to make it easy on yourself
2010-12-02 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to be able to sleep if you're carrying overnight
2010-12-02 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially in the last 4 months
2010-12-02 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where most of the real action takes place between 9:00 and noon CET
2010-12-02 16:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the last two days
2010-12-02 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been all Europe
2010-12-02 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the time in which YOU sleep!
2010-12-02 16:52:11 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-12-02 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway....
2010-12-02 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look through the rest of the data
2010-12-02 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before moving on
2010-12-02 16:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and staying with the CO data
2010-12-02 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since breadth is NOT leading higher here
2010-12-02 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a reset
2010-12-02 16:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCSUM
2010-12-02 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a "ledge" formation is playing out as per what our blueprint was suggesting last week
2010-12-02 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually takes about 2-3 days to complete
2010-12-02 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean that the MCO is probably going to stay above the zero line
2010-12-02 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and very close to it
2010-12-02 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then NEXT WEEK is where we're likely to see our reset take place
2010-12-02 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...you may luck out here
2010-12-02 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2010-12-02 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't expect too much more upside
2010-12-02 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least above a 1% move
2010-12-02 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still
2010-12-02 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the trade goes against you
2010-12-02 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially after the last couple of days worth of action
2010-12-02 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will start to second guess yourself
2010-12-02 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably kick yourself for going in a bit on the early side
2010-12-02 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things take time
2010-12-02 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't stress this idea enough
2010-12-02 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the recent bottom
2010-12-02 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it took over a week
2010-12-02 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this chat room called BOTH reflex moves
2010-12-02 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the trend still up the bears don't really have a whole lot of staying power here
2010-12-02 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have seen this in action
2010-12-02 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where in two days we have just about retraced the entire months correction
2010-12-02 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no power is just that...NO Power
2010-12-02 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control overall
2010-12-02 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the A/D lines are trending higher
2010-12-02 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they take a rest
2010-12-02 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any and all surprises will still be in the direction of this same trend
2010-12-02 16:58:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: At the CO data, how exactly do you see that breadth is not leading higher here?
2010-12-02 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although it's probably not a bad trade here
2010-12-02 16:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you ARE going against the primary tide...so you have to be quick and decisive
2010-12-02 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a comparison situation
2010-12-02 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go to the composite for a better example
2010-12-02 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall basis of a breadth thrust is that the short term TREND (as measured by the MCO) will tend to show a series of bottoms above bottoms indicating lessening of selling pressure into lower and lower price lows
2010-12-02 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what divergences are
2010-12-02 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the trend is moving in the opposite direction of price
2010-12-02 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is then "leading the way" for prices to eventually move
2010-12-02 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is, on balance, more buyers than sellers
2010-12-02 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the sellers all but dry up
2010-12-02 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are left with nothing but buyers
2010-12-02 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-12-02 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYA moving up close to 4% in 2 days
2010-12-02 17:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term trend has only been able to find parity
2010-12-02 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also strongly suggest that only one side was feeding the move
2010-12-02 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...the short side
2010-12-02 17:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the PROOF of a short covering rally
2010-12-02 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sharp and short
2010-12-02 17:03:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trin said same
2010-12-02 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll get to that
2010-12-02 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is your PROOF
2010-12-02 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-12-02 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most, if not all, market advances start with short covering
2010-12-02 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can't exactly say that we have no staying power either
2010-12-02 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today, for example, showed more strength than one would reasonably expect after such a strong showing on Wednesday
2010-12-02 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually...the weak hands cover, and with no new buyers, the price structure will sag into the close
2010-12-02 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't get that today
2010-12-02 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this then
2010-12-02 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this increases the likelihood that the MCO is going to stay above its zero line near term
2010-12-02 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that occurs
2010-12-02 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a ledge or fishhook formation can be created on the MCSUM
2010-12-02 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it's a short covering rally
2010-12-02 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the preferred expectation given everything we just discussed
2010-12-02 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...some carry over tomorrow
2010-12-02 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we go into the weekend honky dory
2010-12-02 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: someone makes a mistake over the weekend
2010-12-02 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we just run on fumes on Monday
2010-12-02 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we go back below the MCO zero line
2010-12-02 17:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see the MCSUM finish their job of get toward their zero lines
2010-12-02 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...remember what we've been pounding the table about here
2010-12-02 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even when the MCSUM tops out
2010-12-02 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean at all that prices have
2010-12-02 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is another great example of this
2010-12-02 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the MID and SML
2010-12-02 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs
2010-12-02 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we knew this would probably happen because they have been the strongest areas in this same pause
2010-12-02 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also knew that with the OEX and DOW as "oversold" as they were
2010-12-02 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a divergent momentum bottom
2010-12-02 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were likely to "springboard" higher
2010-12-02 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: done
2010-12-02 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no magic here
2010-12-02 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's physics
2010-12-02 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets can only go so far before they have to "relieve themselves"
2010-12-02 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back and forth
2010-12-02 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tick tock
2010-12-02 17:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is a living, breathing, entity
2010-12-02 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is order
2010-12-02 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as there isn't anything that will take away from this order
2010-12-02 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a human...it could be a bullet to the chest
2010-12-02 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the market...it could be the unwinding of highly leveraged products that can be compared to having large amounts of heroin in your body and suddenly taking away your fix
2010-12-02 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from this...it's all repetition
2010-12-02 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news means nothing
2010-12-02 17:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news is created to explain away what many can't explain
2010-12-02 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today
2010-12-02 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the comedy show on CNBC this morning
2010-12-02 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going off tangent...let's get back to work
2010-12-02 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough, the NASDAQ breadth MCO and MCSUM look almost the same as the NYSE composite data tonight
2010-12-02 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here, the NASDAQ composite index is back to the recent highs
2010-12-02 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this presents us now with our potential "kicker"
2010-12-02 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bets that everyone now is going to key into, and use as an excuse, a double top in progress?
2010-12-02 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: takers?
2010-12-02 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be absolutely sure that this will be the theme of this upcoming weekend - you watch
2010-12-02 17:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically
2010-12-02 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily volume figures are NOT consistent to a double top
2010-12-02 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will still be used as an excuse to sell
2010-12-02 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we need that excuse to right the technical ship for us to actually move higher again
2010-12-02 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then exploit this, and hopefully, bank some nice profits
2010-12-02 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2010-12-02 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if breadth of market continues to be strong here
2010-12-02 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will then likely to occur is a break above the November highs
2010-12-02 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a snapback to this breakout will then take place
2010-12-02 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like of what we should expect for the SML and MID over the next week or so
2010-12-02 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there we have prices leading breadth higher
2010-12-02 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is cause for a reset
2010-12-02 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll likely see it before we can move any further
2010-12-02 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that a reset takes place to fill the vacuum created where money isn't moving into the direction in which prices move prior to this actual movement
2010-12-02 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2010-12-02 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price does not lead breadth
2010-12-02 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...sometimes prices will decline sharply to fill the void
2010-12-02 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like blowing up a balloon and letting all the air out at once
2010-12-02 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometimes it can be a correction of time...sort of like blowing up this same balloon and controlling the speed in which the air escapes from the balloon
2010-12-02 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and making little squeaky sounds to boot)
2010-12-02 17:21:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-12-02 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYAD line as strong as it is
2010-12-02 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds would favor the later than the former
2010-12-02 17:22:09 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Used to love to let all the air out at once as a kid
2010-12-02 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the A/D line were weaker, then it would likely be fast and sharp
2010-12-02 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I try to do here is give analogies that we all know
2010-12-02 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it might make the best sense
2010-12-02 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully it does
2010-12-02 17:23:15 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It does
2010-12-02 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to highly "oversold" levels on Tuesday
2010-12-02 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line
2010-12-02 17:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...there is balance
2010-12-02 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts have covered
2010-12-02 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now becomes a new segment in the structure
2010-12-02 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one side is about to take control
2010-12-02 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another small detail that might be of interest here
2010-12-02 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you compare the NASDAQ breadth MCO and the NDX breadth MCO
2010-12-02 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will notice that the NASDAQ had a firmer configuration than that of the NDX on Tuesday
2010-12-02 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was important information because
2010-12-02 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the reflex begins
2010-12-02 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect that the composite index to do more "damage" on the upside than that of the NDX
2010-12-02 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of goes back to understanding what a breadth thrust would look like
2010-12-02 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ internally stronger it was then able to move to directly challenge the recent highs
2010-12-02 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NDX came up short
2010-12-02 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it had more work to do to "get there"
2010-12-02 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also shows that with the NDX not leading
2010-12-02 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we probably still have some more backing and filling to do
2010-12-02 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2010-12-02 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for our ultimate bottom to come with the quadruple witch later this month
2010-12-02 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the December period usually has the most amount of open interest
2010-12-02 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that...we get into the holiday period
2010-12-02 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the good ole Santa rally
2010-12-02 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus, by that time, we should know what Congress is going to do with our taxes
2010-12-02 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which...
2010-12-02 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see this story?
2010-12-02 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get it
2010-12-02 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check this out - http://tinyurl.com/25alqro
2010-12-02 17:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and expirations are on the 19th
2010-12-02 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the excuse...so be it
2010-12-02 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the likelihood of a "crash like" event here is very slim at this time
2010-12-02 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would have to completely fall apart starting next week
2010-12-02 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that it couldn't happen...but there you go
2010-12-02 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now back above its zero line
2010-12-02 17:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a reminder from Tuesday
2010-12-02 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until any of these MCO's can get back above their early November highs
2010-12-02 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a trading range
2010-12-02 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now at the top of this same trading range
2010-12-02 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always up the participants
2010-12-02 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can only assume what may happen
2010-12-02 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you're dealing with the backbone of what makes the markets go
2010-12-02 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is whether or not a human being is going to put money to work instead of just talking about it
2010-12-02 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NO ONE really knows what can occur
2010-12-02 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can assume based on historic rhythms
2010-12-02 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about on Tuesday
2010-12-02 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if NK drops a Nuke..that can change things
2010-12-02 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if everyone in Europe suddenly discovers a crock of gold in their basements to pay off their debts, the markets can zoom higher as well
2010-12-02 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it a reasonable expectation?
2010-12-02 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the question that must be asked every single day
2010-12-02 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we trade off of this question
2010-12-02 17:36:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if we form a ledge or fishhook, do you feel that will support the air leaving balloon slowly?
2010-12-02 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ledge or fishhook would be our slowing letting the air out
2010-12-02 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we fall off the ledge is when the air is gone
2010-12-02 17:37:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah!
2010-12-02 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the SPX breadth MCO
2010-12-02 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it moved above the zero line today, right?
2010-12-02 17:37:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure
2010-12-02 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is the "technical expectation" after something like this occurs?
2010-12-02 17:38:12 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: snap back to zero
2010-12-02 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to or TOWARDS the zero line...yes
2010-12-02 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you already know what would be reasonable
2010-12-02 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what you don't know is the dynamic that makes this actually happen
2010-12-02 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-12-02 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth could be flat tomorrow
2010-12-02 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give us a small point change
2010-12-02 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices can close higher
2010-12-02 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...remember...you're dealing with the magic of "weighted" averages
2010-12-02 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why breadth leads prices
2010-12-02 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because anything left over after energy is expelled, will usually find its way into lesser and lesser issues
2010-12-02 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually the last ones to see these "fumes" are those issues that have the greatest amount of liquidity
2010-12-02 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM
2010-12-02 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GE
2010-12-02 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing
2010-12-02 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that I just mentioned the highest weighted stocks in both in the OEX and DOW
2010-12-02 17:41:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Makes good sense
2010-12-02 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we want to wait as long as we can to have the most amount of issues moving in our desired direction BEFORE we expose our hard fought capital to the casino
2010-12-02 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a game
2010-12-02 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our job is to beat the market
2010-12-02 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one or anything else doesn't mean poo poo
2010-12-02 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you play Blackjack
2010-12-02 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a double deck
2010-12-02 17:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're watching for a couple of minutes
2010-12-02 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you see a ton of face cards
2010-12-02 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you think your chances are of hitting 21 are?
2010-12-02 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty low
2010-12-02 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you adjust your play to fit what's given
2010-12-02 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO fulfilled our expectation of snapping back to its zero line
2010-12-02 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has the Dow
2010-12-02 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-12-02 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the first time the OEX and DOW have seen the MCO zero line in a month
2010-12-02 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does it seem to be a "reasonable expectation" that we've seen a price bottom here without at least a retest of the "oversold" levels on these two averages?
2010-12-02 17:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not
2010-12-02 17:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it happen without a test?
2010-12-02 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess so
2010-12-02 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it "reasonable"
2010-12-02 17:46:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: some texture would be very welcome here
2010-12-02 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not
2010-12-02 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-12-02 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2010-12-02 17:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO has finally moved back up to its zero line
2010-12-02 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the 19 day EMA has only now moved back to test the underside of the 39 day EMA
2010-12-02 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it be "reasonable" then to look for a reflex away from this 39 day EMA to come back to test these two time period trends another day?
2010-12-02 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is never get excited
2010-12-02 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never get emotional
2010-12-02 17:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is your business
2010-12-02 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must treat it as one
2010-12-02 17:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you make too many mistakes, you can go "out of business"
2010-12-02 17:49:31 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: True
2010-12-02 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping mistakes to a minimum...and your business will thrive
2010-12-02 17:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML and MID price patterns with new price highs now
2010-12-02 17:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have the potential for BEAR divergence in place
2010-12-02 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like the bull divergence of Tuesday
2010-12-02 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this vacuum will need to be filled
2010-12-02 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be a more important top?
2010-12-02 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely
2010-12-02 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a snapback to or towards the breakout area would be reasonable
2010-12-02 17:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people can talk about how bad the economy is
2010-12-02 17:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how terrible the politics are
2010-12-02 17:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until money flow has eased enough where these back drops actually mean something
2010-12-02 17:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just rhetoric to confuse you from the proper context
2010-12-02 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: listen...respect...but trade on what you see
2010-12-02 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not on what may be or might be
2010-12-02 17:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me
2010-12-02 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything being talked about today in the news has been talked about since the dawn of man
2010-12-02 17:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the play is always the same...only the characters change over time
2010-12-02 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't think the same things were being talked about during the panics of the late 1800's, 1903 and 1906???
2010-12-02 17:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course they were
2010-12-02 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a bigger stage these days
2010-12-02 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: running out of time
2010-12-02 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me quickly look over the rest of the data
2010-12-02 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way that the TM breadth MCO is hugging its +250 level
2010-12-02 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (no..these levels mean absolutely nothing)
2010-12-02 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bearish divergence in place on the MCO
2010-12-02 17:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the reasonable expectation here would be for maybe another day or two of churning
2010-12-02 17:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with nothing much to show for it
2010-12-02 17:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should then "fall off the ledge" next week
2010-12-02 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I forget
2010-12-02 17:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next weeks chats are Monday, Tuesday and Thursday
2010-12-02 17:56:45 [Message] gman -> Chat: yea!
2010-12-02 17:56:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: got a feeling it will make trading sweet, looking forward to it!
2010-12-02 17:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now "overbought"
2010-12-02 17:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price top of some kind in the next two sessions
2010-12-02 17:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice how the SPX STVO bounced off its zero line
2010-12-02 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to see here
2010-12-02 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for the VTO's to go to "oversold"
2010-12-02 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this happens, then we'll be at a bottom to work with
2010-12-02 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...the internals remain very strong here
2010-12-02 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're hankering to short
2010-12-02 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2010-12-02 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be greedy
2010-12-02 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take your 5 points
2010-12-02 17:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right Lew?
2010-12-02 17:59:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hit and run!
2010-12-02 17:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .43
2010-12-02 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .87
2010-12-02 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the power of the shorts covering here
2010-12-02 17:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far...too fast
2010-12-02 18:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but expected given the "oversold" readings of the last week or so
2010-12-02 18:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .61
2010-12-02 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now close to being "overbought" with a reading of .83
2010-12-02 18:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .55
2010-12-02 18:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2010-12-02 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-12-02 18:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe another choppy to higher day near term
2010-12-02 18:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any fireworks we might see will probably start next week
2010-12-02 18:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many indices...we are in a trading range
2010-12-02 18:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed
2010-12-02 18:01:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: numbers wise on VTO's? (depth of oversold we want?
2010-12-02 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID and SML now above their recent highs
2010-12-02 18:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would only expect a snapback to or towards the breakout lines
2010-12-02 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the VTO's
2010-12-02 18:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -50
2010-12-02 18:02:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2010-12-02 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want a wash out
2010-12-02 18:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep an eye out here
2010-12-02 18:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because since liquidity is very high
2010-12-02 18:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may pull up short as well
2010-12-02 18:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the rhythm
2010-12-02 18:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-02 18:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone in Europe go to bed
2010-12-02 18:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the rest of us
2010-12-02 18:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a good night
2010-12-02 18:03:49 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks for the extra charts
2010-12-02 18:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good weekend
2010-12-02 18:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this again on Monday
2010-12-02 18:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2010-12-02 18:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-12-02 18:04:04 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Thanks, really appreciated
2010-12-02 18:04:04 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Good night
2010-12-02 18:04:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: excellent chat
2010-12-02 18:04:27 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes, I look forward to reread it in day light

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

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Taz

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Posts: 11
Reply with quote  #2 
Hey Dave,

what do you mean by the following:

"the short term trend has only been able to find parity"

do you mean the MCO getting to 0?

Cheers beers

Dan


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
do you mean the MCO getting to 0?

Yes...a balance point between buyers and sellers.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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