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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-12-02 19:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-12-02 19:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-12-02 19:01:56 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: fine.......just need to improve stop placement
2008-12-02 19:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in my experience
2008-12-02 19:02:26 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: sea sick with volatility but immensely profitable
2008-12-02 19:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one needs a plan going in and then let the market take you out
2008-12-02 19:03:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hey fib
2008-12-02 19:03:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hows it going
2008-12-02 19:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hanging in there
2008-12-02 19:03:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: crazy times
2008-12-02 19:03:32 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: yes.......but the volatility makes it tricky
2008-12-02 19:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-12-02 19:03:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i saw your post on the count
2008-12-02 19:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whatcha think?
2008-12-02 19:03:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: quick question for ya on that
2008-12-02 19:04:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i think its spot on
2008-12-02 19:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...fire away
2008-12-02 19:04:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the wave iii down of the minute 5, which i ii to you multiply to give a target, or is it the whole move with the extension to give you the wave iii target
2008-12-02 19:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all wave three objectives, in the context of Elliott, come from wave 1
2008-12-02 19:05:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on your chart, the extension wasn't marked
2008-12-02 19:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the extension is within wave v
2008-12-02 19:05:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right, but the move down to i
2008-12-02 19:06:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: had extensions in it
2008-12-02 19:06:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what is the count down to that purple i
2008-12-02 19:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did one down, two up into last Friday, now in (iii) down of v
2008-12-02 19:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each degree of trend is allowed one extension
2008-12-02 19:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me bring up the chart
2008-12-02 19:06:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so it was a 1 2 and then a 1 2 down to the purple i?
2008-12-02 19:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/elliottspx120108.png
2008-12-02 19:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just a simple 5 down for (i)
2008-12-02 19:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (ii) up into last Friday
2008-12-02 19:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an even smaller 1 down yesterday
2008-12-02 19:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2 up today
2008-12-02 19:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means...
2008-12-02 19:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll know if the count is right or not probably by tomorrow as we should see the center point of this extension to the downside
2008-12-02 19:08:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: had trouble counting 5 down to i
2008-12-02 19:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-12-02 19:09:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: have 4 and 1 overlapping
2008-12-02 19:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which time degree?
2008-12-02 19:09:18 [Message] locus -> Main Room: agree dave
2008-12-02 19:09:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: any time degree
2008-12-02 19:09:41 [Message] locus -> Main Room: might be ED now in 5
2008-12-02 19:10:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: locus, can you explain your points on the ED?
2008-12-02 19:11:15 [Message] locus -> Main Room: with w1 10/27 low, w2 11/4 high
2008-12-02 19:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm trying to get a chart up so I can share it with you...give me a moment
2008-12-02 19:11:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, cool, ty dave
2008-12-02 19:11:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: aaah locus, thats a thought
2008-12-02 19:12:30 [Message] locus -> Main Room: w3 11/21 low and w4 complete 11/28
2008-12-02 19:12:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i see it
2008-12-02 19:13:07 [Message] locus -> Main Room: reason being everything looks like 3 wave structures
2008-12-02 19:13:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: either your count or fib's count says we should get hit hard imminently in either case
2008-12-02 19:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't get the chart I want
2008-12-02 19:13:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: locus, on the ED what would be the wave 5 target on that
2008-12-02 19:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but Locus laid it out nicely
2008-12-02 19:14:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, anything in that count of an ED from those dates that doesn't fit with the psychology of the time?
2008-12-02 19:14:07 [Message] locus -> Main Room: usually expect pierce of t/l connecting w1 to w3
2008-12-02 19:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only that a bottom was being tested...and failed which caused the panic
2008-12-02 19:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we became grossly "oversold"
2008-12-02 19:15:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: is that not charactistic of an ED?
2008-12-02 19:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this compression needed to release its energy
2008-12-02 19:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...in all cases
2008-12-02 19:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's be fair here
2008-12-02 19:15:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in all cases is supportive or not supportive?
2008-12-02 19:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's certainly not the cleanest structure and can be interpreted bullishly as well
2008-12-02 19:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: supportive
2008-12-02 19:16:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: k
2008-12-02 19:16:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ty
2008-12-02 19:16:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, i know one thing
2008-12-02 19:16:23 [Message] locus -> Main Room: was thinking what you said about high trin in w5's led me to suspect currently in a w5
2008-12-02 19:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, yesterday's high TRIN readings are fully consistent to 5th waves
2008-12-02 19:16:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from my experience, minute 3 was the closest thing to capitulation, and we took out those lows, so a bigger capitulation will occur before its done
2008-12-02 19:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the question becomes - was this the end of the structure, or just the beginning of this final panic blow off
2008-12-02 19:17:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this won't end without it, no matter what the count is
2008-12-02 19:17:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: even with an ED, it leads to a bigger 4
2008-12-02 19:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, no matter what the count is, we MUST rely on the data
2008-12-02 19:18:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes the data helps us navigate it
2008-12-02 19:18:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but that capitulation is coming
2008-12-02 19:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again, for those who may be new
2008-12-02 19:18:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sooner or later, and will be bigger than 10/10
2008-12-02 19:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our discussion here of Elliott always takes a back seat to what money is doing at any particular time, and we don't give any more weight to it than what is proper in relation to market breadth
2008-12-02 19:19:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: as your posts say, this time will be different, but capitulation ends something like this 99 times of 100
2008-12-02 19:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it can...
2008-12-02 19:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we're also dealing with a market place that is unhealthy at the moment
2008-12-02 19:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many rip tides abound as the market goes about its business of finding fair valuation
2008-12-02 19:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technically, we knew this last Tuesday
2008-12-02 19:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had an "overbought" market in several key areas with the odds favoring the rally as being that of short covering with no new money to help this energy further along
2008-12-02 19:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some of this was holiday and end of month related
2008-12-02 19:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what the rally did last week is it gave everyone "hope" that the tide had turned
2008-12-02 19:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then came Monday with very heavy selling
2008-12-02 19:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today, there seemed to be a lot of bottom picking going on
2008-12-02 19:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: turn around Tuesday?
2008-12-02 19:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a look see
2008-12-02 19:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after continuing to move higher last week, and perceptively taking its previous highs, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower yesterday, and then reversed course today
2008-12-02 19:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what will be an important component in truly figuring out where we really are is if the bulls can continue to put upside trend pressure on this, and the rest of the breadth MCO's, so that we will see higher highs
2008-12-02 19:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were to occur, we will then start to see many MCSUM breakouts from their accelerated declining tops lines
2008-12-02 19:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the next objective of challenging their repsective gap ressitance areas
2008-12-02 19:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that when the MCSUM is advancing, it's only telling us that the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA of their respective A/D lines are in the process of moving towards each other
2008-12-02 19:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, the 19 day is slowing down enough where the 39 day is only playing catch up, which is narrowning this same gap
2008-12-02 19:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know this by the position of the MCO components
2008-12-02 19:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where on the CO data, we now have the 10% component (the 19 day EMA) just now moving above its zero line, and this would equate to the 19 day EMA now slowing enough where a turn in the opposite direction is indicated
2008-12-02 19:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...this is all fine and good, however, we also have to know what the A/D line is doing in this overall context for this kind of information to be substantive enough where we can figure out whether it's better to continue to be short while the market pauses - or - whether going to cash would be the best way to go from this point
2008-12-02 19:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's move on to the composite data, and if you give me a moment, I'll grab the combo chart of the NYAD
2008-12-02 19:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p02152218973&a=118792146&r=478
2008-12-02 19:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking our attention to the A/D line itself
2008-12-02 19:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see that last weeks rally ran into overhead resistance at the 19 day EMA, and moved sharply lower from this initial challenge
2008-12-02 19:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the composite MCO itself
2008-12-02 19:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was actually the near term expectation because even though the MCO moved higher all of last week, it did NOT move above the previous October highs
2008-12-02 19:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as mentioned previously, it's going to take more energy to pierce above this short term EMA of trend than what the market has given us to work with (so far)
2008-12-02 19:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the question becomes - was there enough shake out of the weak hands yesterday where the bulls can try again to move above these same levels or not?
2008-12-02 19:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: according the massive selling we saw yesterday as measured by the NYSE TRIN, it's very possible that any new challenge will, in fact, succeed in turning the short term tide this time around
2008-12-02 19:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we compare this recent advance with that of middle part of October
2008-12-02 19:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we could be seeing an exact duplicate of what took place at that time
2008-12-02 19:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only this time, with a lower MCO high
2008-12-02 19:35:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good observation dave
2008-12-02 19:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in spite of the fact that we started below the zero line at a higher level than that of mid October (the divergent structure)
2008-12-02 19:36:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: make that great observation
2008-12-02 19:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now here's the kicker
2008-12-02 19:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p85139122919&a=14317472&r=865
2008-12-02 19:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...playing the odds here, it would appear that we should continue to see some sort of softness to the market action for another week or so
2008-12-02 19:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so that we can get the full stochastic on the NYMO to a more relaxed level
2008-12-02 19:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too frothy here
2008-12-02 19:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you compare this to what we saw in mid October, you can see that even if we do rally higher tomorrow, eventually, we're going to have unwind even before we see any kind of positive tone to the overall trading pattern
2008-12-02 19:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...we're still not out of the woods yet, and are highly vulerable to a nasty couple of days(given the high volatility and "overbought" readings)
2008-12-02 19:40:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if we play the mid oct fractal over again, we should see a gap up and sell off tomorrow
2008-12-02 19:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-12-02 19:40:45 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: that +80 Stoc has been reliable indicator over past few months
2008-12-02 19:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the market looked very heavy today until the last hour
2008-12-02 19:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: past few years actually
2008-12-02 19:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's nice and slow
2008-12-02 19:41:15 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib if you look at the price structure you can hardly call that overbought
2008-12-02 19:41:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: rightfield, many internal indicators signaling over bought
2008-12-02 19:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here it is from 2007- http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=t02846732572&a=14317472&r=1469
2008-12-02 19:41:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not price per say
2008-12-02 19:42:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: if this is initiation it must get to overbought
2008-12-02 19:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, that's only one area of concern right now
2008-12-02 19:42:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in my experience rightfield, biggest declines in price occur during oversold
2008-12-02 19:42:28 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: true
2008-12-02 19:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but can an initiation get started with the STVO's "overbought"?
2008-12-02 19:42:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and cvi, and the open 10's were in outer space
2008-12-02 19:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wouldn't it be more in line if the majority continues to be standoffish in their trading?
2008-12-02 19:42:54 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: could be we had 10 trin yesterday
2008-12-02 19:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed...it's something to consider
2008-12-02 19:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we also had an 18 TRIN last year, and all it did was move us into a top
2008-12-02 19:43:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep, during china meltdown in feb of 07
2008-12-02 19:43:34 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and it was a local bottom
2008-12-02 19:43:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that was an uptrend
2008-12-02 19:43:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this isn't
2008-12-02 19:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear markets have very different characteristics than do bull markets
2008-12-02 19:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, indicators change in their usefulness
2008-12-02 19:44:03 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: bear markets also end at some point
2008-12-02 19:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they do
2008-12-02 19:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not with the A/D lines in negative configurations
2008-12-02 19:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NAAD excepted...it's garbage anyway
2008-12-02 19:44:52 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: they'll always be in negative config without some push
2008-12-02 19:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but without a foundation in which to stand on, any rally will create a vacuum
2008-12-02 19:45:36 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: we have a positive div now on mco and mcsum no?
2008-12-02 19:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from this chair, we still need several more months, minimally, before we'll see enough of a foundation for a multi month advance
2008-12-02 19:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we do
2008-12-02 19:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like we just talked about, the MCO is suspect, while the MCSUM is still deeply "oversold"
2008-12-02 19:46:08 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thats a start
2008-12-02 19:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it hasn't moved above it's gap resistance areas
2008-12-02 19:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's the key
2008-12-02 19:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the gap resistance areas are points in which we saw the most amount of capituation
2008-12-02 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where everyone throws in the towel
2008-12-02 19:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this then acts as resistance for any further switch in direction
2008-12-02 19:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as those who got left holding the bag are apt to try to even up at this same points of inflection
2008-12-02 19:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so unless this evening up process gets overwhelmed, it's not likely that we'll see a price structure that will have enough structure behind it to "carry on"
2008-12-02 19:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's our job to distinguish between trends
2008-12-02 19:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: relief rallies?
2008-12-02 19:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes indeedy do
2008-12-02 19:49:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: and ferret out turning points
2008-12-02 19:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we have structure...texture...in the underlying internals for price to build on
2008-12-02 19:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to remain steadfast in our objectives
2008-12-02 19:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if wrong...fine..
2008-12-02 19:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we can only go with what the market gives us to work with
2008-12-02 19:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and right now...we're still heavy
2008-12-02 19:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and much of this can be pointed to a lack of confidence in the system
2008-12-02 19:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not just on a domestic basis, but globally as well
2008-12-02 19:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a whole different animal than what we have seen in the past
2008-12-02 19:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this didn't just start - it started at the 2002/2003 lows
2008-12-02 19:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every ying, there's a yang to produce balance
2008-12-02 19:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and right now, there is little bullish character to the chart action
2008-12-02 19:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember back in 2003 when just about every single sector had bullish configurations to them?
2008-12-02 19:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this produced an uptrend that lasted for another 4 years
2008-12-02 19:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now..we have every sector in bearish configurations
2008-12-02 19:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's going to take time to filter out just like in uptrends
2008-12-02 19:53:29 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it's going to take time thats for sure
2008-12-02 19:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slowly, methodically, sector by sector will start to move in the opposite direction
2008-12-02 19:53:44 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but the lows maybe in
2008-12-02 19:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always a maybe
2008-12-02 19:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not likely
2008-12-02 19:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do we know about the MCSUM when it comes to extremes?
2008-12-02 19:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is to say...when the MCSUM moves above the +500 level, and moves below the -750 level?
2008-12-02 19:54:44 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: it's gonna be difficult to have a sustained move to the upside
2008-12-02 19:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the MCSUM turns in the opposite direction, does the market?
2008-12-02 19:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-12-02 19:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: difficult, yes, but it can be done
2008-12-02 19:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not without a lot of effort in doing so
2008-12-02 19:55:15 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: but also difficult to have a negative breadth plurality
2008-12-02 19:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but we know that even when breadth plurality makes a turn in the opposite direction
2008-12-02 19:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until we can get more and more of a majority moving in this new direction, we're going to get air pockets...like yesterday
2008-12-02 19:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and these air pockets can be quite violent
2008-12-02 19:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back to the advancing price structure of 2003-2007
2008-12-02 19:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we would get the same kind of declining move...maybe not in percentage terms as last week...but structual wise
2008-12-02 19:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we would recoup much of that decline in a short amount of time
2008-12-02 19:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...it's equal and opposite
2008-12-02 19:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what makes market mechanics...there is always order
2008-12-02 19:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although the order can seem to be out of whack at times...it IS consistent
2008-12-02 19:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for those who have been touting "just wait until the MCSUM turns higher"
2008-12-02 19:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would be inconsistent to what these same people convey as a turn in the tide
2008-12-02 19:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just a lessening of the previous one
2008-12-02 19:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we can get better balance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis (MCSUM)
2008-12-02 19:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to be more of a pick and choose situation, and not one of buy and hold
2008-12-02 19:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much danger still remains
2008-12-02 20:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: simply stated, the bears remain fully in control of the intermedate trend
2008-12-02 20:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls are attempting to regain control, scrimmage wise, in the bigger war
2008-12-02 20:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the bulls can continue to overtake certain "positions" where the bears hold control over
2008-12-02 20:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like a chess game...or "Battleship"
2008-12-02 20:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, Frodo and Sam are still on their way to Mordor
2008-12-02 20:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and have only seen the gates
2008-12-02 20:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and Gollum is now taking them in through the back door
2008-12-02 20:02:44 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: great analogy as always
2008-12-02 20:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again...there might still be a spider or two to get away from
2008-12-02 20:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the combo chart, you can see where the MCSUM gap resistance line is noted, and structurally, it would appear that this MCSUM is in the process right now of trying to put in a double bottom of sorts
2008-12-02 20:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where one bottom is slightly higher than the last one
2008-12-02 20:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a good visualization of selling pressure lessening on the last decline
2008-12-02 20:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once this towel was rung out, once again the bulls can attempt to overcome this main line of battle line resistance
2008-12-02 20:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bottom above a bottom is a good start, far better than only one bottom
2008-12-02 20:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's this kind of structure, texture, that's needed for a foundation to be created, no less, have an opportunity to fight hard to break this enermies line of strategic resistance
2008-12-02 20:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if successful, they still have another, more imporant battle, still ahead - the declining tops line which "controls" the action
2008-12-02 20:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "all seeing eye" of the tower
2008-12-02 20:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this same line of resistance intersects presently around the -650 level - still well away from being neutral, where there is balance at the zero line
2008-12-02 20:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: EMA wise...where the 19 day EMA can cross back above the 39 day EMA to produce an "On Your Mark" buy signal
2008-12-02 20:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes....a long way to go
2008-12-02 20:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back to October, we looked at a longer term chart of the NYAD and noted that it took the better part of 2 years to provide the structure necessary for an uptrend to begin
2008-12-02 20:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we haven't even seen a bottom above a bottom yet
2008-12-02 20:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe tomorrow that will change, but in this business, until proven otherwise, we have to go with what money suggests the best course of action and try to leave everything else at the door
2008-12-02 20:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while we're here, let's look at the volume combo chart - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p26860146100&a=118792131&r=896
2008-12-02 20:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, in this case, NYSE U/D line is looking more favorable right now than that of breadth
2008-12-02 20:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have broken above the 10% Trend, and basically have snapped back to this same line
2008-12-02 20:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so here it would be very important for the bulls to show some muscle tomorrow to move to a higher high as this would then put us in a better position to take any pause in the larger downtrend to more than a week
2008-12-02 20:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: none of this 1 week stuff...more like 2-4 weeks
2008-12-02 20:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the trend of this current move with the MCO
2008-12-02 20:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we see here that this MCO did directly challenge the October highs
2008-12-02 20:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when it did last Friday, it was able to temporarily break above the 10% trend
2008-12-02 20:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but when breadth didn't confirm...you got Monday's pullback
2008-12-02 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is where the idea of "too far, too fast" comes into play
2008-12-02 20:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we didn't get any kind of hesitation with the MCO during this last run up - where there wasn't any structure, or texture, behind it
2008-12-02 20:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like climbing to the top of mountain full of ice
2008-12-02 20:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you slip, and you can fall just as fast
2008-12-02 20:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why structure is important as it gives an oscillator plateaus to fall back on just in case of a slip
2008-12-02 20:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as with the breadth MCO then, if we can get good follow through here on the volume MCO then, yes, a bottom lasting more than a week can be anticipated
2008-12-02 20:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then when we consider the MCSUM, it's going to be choppy at best
2008-12-02 20:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then if we go back to the U/D line again, even if we do break and stay above the 19 day EMA, we still have the intermediate term 39 day EMA within striking distance that WILL need this kind of textural structure behind it to break above this line of TREND resistance
2008-12-02 20:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just like a price chart folks...it's a matter of stepping stones
2008-12-02 20:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the difference primarily being between the two - here we measure the velocity, or energy, behind the money flow line, and with price, we use daily volume to ascertain these same strengths and weaknesses
2008-12-02 20:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more buyers than sellers...cool
2008-12-02 20:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more sellers than buyers, with new highs...red flashing light
2008-12-02 20:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neither buyers nor sellers (on balance), than the price action will naturally sag in its search to find this same balance (or inbalance)
2008-12-02 20:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything in the market is made up of energy
2008-12-02 20:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without this same energy, money, it just coasts
2008-12-02 20:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's important to find ways to find the differences between markets of fresh money and that of being rehashed
2008-12-02 20:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking our line of vision to the bottom of the NYUD combo chart, and we can see that we still several challenges to go before this same volume line will see any kind of structural change to it
2008-12-02 20:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we also have a mixed bag of sorts with the shorter term trend of NYSE volume leading breadth, but on the intermediate term, breadth of market is leading volume
2008-12-02 20:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: under this kind of scenario then, we can assume that much of what we're seeing here is probably that of being selective short covering going on while we still wait to see better balance between buyers and sellers on two different degrees of trend
2008-12-02 20:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we're so compressed
2008-12-02 20:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whipsaw up and whipsaw down is the only way the market can work this same compression off
2008-12-02 20:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: great for short term traders, not so good for longer term traders and investors
2008-12-02 20:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what makes it hard is that there's not a lot of places you can go to get the kind of returns every investment analysis gives you to get you to buy their products
2008-12-02 20:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "assuming an annual rate of return of 7%, over 20 years" blah blah blah
2008-12-02 20:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you think to yourself, well, it's a longer term context that I'm saving for
2008-12-02 20:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you don't have money to make this same money growth, you're not going to get to the end of this rainbow either
2008-12-02 20:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why...cash is king right now - captial preservation is needed
2008-12-02 20:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...back to DP
2008-12-02 20:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved slightly higher today
2008-12-02 20:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but has just about the same thing going for it right now that what we see in the NYSE data
2008-12-02 20:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...
2008-12-02 20:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is a big however
2008-12-02 20:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even though we stil have gap resistance above us on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM, we have broken above the accelerated declining tops line now
2008-12-02 20:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then suggest that our short term target would be for a challenge of this same gap resistance line...let me link the combo chart
2008-12-02 20:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p71349245852&a=118792179&r=742
2008-12-02 20:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this then, we should not see this basket of stocks decline as badly with any further weakness we might see in the NYSE group of stocks
2008-12-02 20:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO again, we're still not showing higher highs either
2008-12-02 20:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...here again, the next day or so becomes very important
2008-12-02 20:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why, last Thursday, I suggested that we probably won't know the true near term picture until closer to Friday of this week
2008-12-02 20:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the NAUD combo chart - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p42665451626&a=118792169&r=127
2008-12-02 20:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we look at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM, it too has broken above its declining tops line today
2008-12-02 20:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this occuring right now, it puts an even greater emphasis on not getting too beared up right now
2008-12-02 20:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that the pattern might have allevated enough of the downside pressure where it can climb higher...or at least...not continue to fall apart in chunk size moves
2008-12-02 20:45:36 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Question re the MCSUM for NAS?
2008-12-02 20:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: add the high TRIN values from yesterday, and one should be careful in not getting too determined that the near term resolution would be for another purge
2008-12-02 20:46:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wasn't it almost inevitable to break above the declining tops line for MCSUM? How low can it go? Oscillators have to oscillate at some point.
2008-12-02 20:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, of course it was (is) inevitable as nothing goes straight down...nothing goes straight up
2008-12-02 20:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you must also consider that as "oversold" as we were (and that it would be like taking a basketball and holding it below the water line)that it took over a month just to see some kind of structure to even attempt to break this same line
2008-12-02 20:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also keep in mind that accelerated lines of resistance are not able to hold on for very long
2008-12-02 20:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as the farther you travel from the mean, the more likely that a pattern is going to revert back to it
2008-12-02 20:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is basic "oversold" and "overbought" considerations and why they work
2008-12-02 20:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can only stretch a rubber band only so far before it has to snapback...or break
2008-12-02 20:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why when we get to extremes, the opposite force is usually violent
2008-12-02 20:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-12-02 20:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but unless we take out Friday's highs, we will be left with a small series of tops beneath tops
2008-12-02 21:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking our line of vision to the components
2008-12-02 21:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still see that both remain below their zero lines instructing us that this is a correction
2008-12-02 21:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that being...a correction of the downtrend
2008-12-02 21:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately, the market moved so fast yesterday, as last weeks action created a vacuum, that there wasn't enough time to fill this same void
2008-12-02 21:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...maybe yesterday was an air pocket to correct this void
2008-12-02 21:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we will only know this IF we see higher MCO highs in the next couple of days
2008-12-02 21:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a lot of indecision going on here, but on an intermediate term basis, the path of least resistance remains to the downside
2008-12-02 21:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the other problem with swift MCO moves like we just had
2008-12-02 21:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if there's no follow through to what could be a breadth thrust
2008-12-02 21:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this leaves the gates wide open to something quite destructive to happen when everyone realizes that the rally has "failed" to bring in others in agreeing with this same assessment
2008-12-02 21:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where the word "trap" gets its basis
2008-12-02 21:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's really a point of whether others agree that we belong where we are
2008-12-02 21:05:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That said, would seem tomorrow is do or die for bulls?
2008-12-02 21:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know about do or die - that happened on October 2nd
2008-12-02 21:06:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, find friends or realize it is lonely?
2008-12-02 21:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how do you find comrades when your surrounded by the enemy?
2008-12-02 21:07:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bull, trample a path
2008-12-02 21:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a tough sell
2008-12-02 21:07:40 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: extra effort required to overcome
2008-12-02 21:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it takes that and a lot more
2008-12-02 21:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we're in deep bear territory
2008-12-02 21:08:04 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: and not demonstrated yet
2008-12-02 21:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and trying to find others to join us to help in fighting off this same enemy
2008-12-02 21:08:19 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: hey fib
2008-12-02 21:08:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: please gap up tomorrow to the 50% retrace
2008-12-02 21:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes....
2008-12-02 21:08:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it would make me happy
2008-12-02 21:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: please... no...pretty please
2008-12-02 21:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't look for gaps, just watch how Europe goes...
2008-12-02 21:09:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not a big one, just want a low risk short entry
2008-12-02 21:09:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and that's it
2008-12-02 21:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...let the market slide and THEN I'll follow
2008-12-02 21:09:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: gap up reversal just like mid oct fractal
2008-12-02 21:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at yesterday - the Dow lost 150 points in the last 1/2 hour
2008-12-02 21:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to each his own
2008-12-02 21:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...you're younger than me...you can take it
2008-12-02 21:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls almost lost it with 20 minutes to go...it was a close one
2008-12-02 21:11:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-12-02 21:11:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50% retrace
2008-12-02 21:11:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 855
2008-12-02 21:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a couple of other notes on the MCSUM
2008-12-02 21:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll note that the MID breadth MCSUM has now moved above the highs of October
2008-12-02 21:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the structure looks pretty good here
2008-12-02 21:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll also note that the MID breadth MCO did move to higher highs
2008-12-02 21:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this allowed the MCSUM to actually take out this same overhead resistance point
2008-12-02 21:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this shows us how this works - in a concert fashion
2008-12-02 21:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why...near term...we could see some additional relief...and maybe challenge the highs of Friday before we see another back and fill
2008-12-02 21:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep your options open here
2008-12-02 21:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why we should have a better handle on things by this Friday
2008-12-02 21:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: BEFORE the jobs numbers
2008-12-02 21:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's on the bearish side of neutral
2008-12-02 21:14:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: everyone knows jobs number going to be bad
2008-12-02 21:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I have a feeling it will be the last one of the year
2008-12-02 21:15:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: me thinks it has to be super duper bad to cause sell
2008-12-02 21:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to be bad
2008-12-02 21:15:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: probably sell tomorrow and thurs
2008-12-02 21:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market has already told us that
2008-12-02 21:15:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and do nothing or bounce on fri
2008-12-02 21:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's something else here that's bothering the market though - it's not just the economy
2008-12-02 21:16:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if everyone knows what you know, then what you know is not worth knowing
2008-12-02 21:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: But I may be wrong...but it's the sense I'm getting
2008-12-02 21:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "overbought"
2008-12-02 21:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are weak
2008-12-02 21:16:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hey
2008-12-02 21:16:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what is bothering you
2008-12-02 21:16:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you not letting that go
2008-12-02 21:17:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: rather im not
2008-12-02 21:17:03 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: treasury in panic mode, could be saying something dangerous?
2008-12-02 21:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be, yes
2008-12-02 21:17:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave
2008-12-02 21:17:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what else is bothering you
2008-12-02 21:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .39
2008-12-02 21:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .91
2008-12-02 21:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neutral
2008-12-02 21:17:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oh, you werent being specific
2008-12-02 21:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not worth discussing...
2008-12-02 21:18:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cmon
2008-12-02 21:18:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just say it
2008-12-02 21:18:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you brought it up, i bit
2008-12-02 21:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes I just get these vibes on the action
2008-12-02 21:18:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: currencies
2008-12-02 21:18:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: etc...
2008-12-02 21:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...currencies are bothering me
2008-12-02 21:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's a whole bunch of things...but better in a different chat format
2008-12-02 21:19:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wait till the change the accounting rules
2008-12-02 21:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...I brought nothing up except to say that the market's antennae's are up
2008-12-02 21:19:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and eliminate mark to market
2008-12-02 21:19:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that'll be fun
2008-12-02 21:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know...all they have to do is bring back the uptick rule and all of this would be over
2008-12-02 21:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but too many are making too much
2008-12-02 21:20:21 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: short selling is waaayyy down
2008-12-02 21:20:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: easier to short on penny denomination
2008-12-02 21:20:35 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: after setting record after record, month after month
2008-12-02 21:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it sure would straigten out some of the analytical tools out there
2008-12-02 21:20:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we aren't dealing with 1/4's anymore
2008-12-02 21:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: were not?
2008-12-02 21:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where have I been?
2008-12-02 21:20:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: get with the times fib
2008-12-02 21:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me finish up
2008-12-02 21:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .41
2008-12-02 21:21:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fractions went away with worldcom and enron
2008-12-02 21:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .95
2008-12-02 21:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .38
2008-12-02 21:21:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: stock market went away with aig, leh, c, etc...
2008-12-02 21:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .91
2008-12-02 21:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's see what the bulls are made of
2008-12-02 21:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if they fail to follow through again, we'll have to retrace, and a test of the November lows would be indicatre
2008-12-02 21:22:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: any trend to expect based on it in next 2 days?
2008-12-02 21:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me thinks we will know all were going to know after lunch tomorrow
2008-12-02 21:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll have direction
2008-12-02 21:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll know whether the bulls can rally into Friday
2008-12-02 21:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we'll see what happens
2008-12-02 21:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-12-02 21:23:38 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: wide intraday swings because of overwhelming pressure -- push by one side or because the other side stands aside and very meekly resists?
2008-12-02 21:23:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good night, thanks for the good work tonight, lots to digest
2008-12-02 21:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the intraday chart today
2008-12-02 21:24:04 [Message] johneeboy3 -> Main Room: Greetings all: Agree with the comments about currencies. There's compression going on in a number of the FX rates - indicating that some major event/change could be on the horizon for the major indices.
2008-12-02 21:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially in the last hour
2008-12-02 21:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see how a buy program (or several) moved the market higher
2008-12-02 21:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we reached resistance...looked around...no takers
2008-12-02 21:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and whoosh...we lost 100 Dow points in 5 minutes
2008-12-02 21:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: regrouped again...and another buy program hit the floor
2008-12-02 21:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then the last 5 minutes was short covering
2008-12-02 21:25:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, if the cronies putting orders in at jpm, learned to buy to break resistance, maybe they would get somewhere
2008-12-02 21:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...until the bulls can muster up some back up
2008-12-02 21:26:11 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: buy programs trying to "move'
2008-12-02 21:26:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: any thoughts on the inside day?
2008-12-02 21:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to be tough to put much together after the inital reflex from last week...they have to build on it now
2008-12-02 21:26:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: does that indicate a higher close tomorrow?
2008-12-02 21:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: generally, it does
2008-12-02 21:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there isn't a trend here
2008-12-02 21:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a short term indicator...in this case, the next day only
2008-12-02 21:27:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would a doji unchanged day tomorrow give you an idea as to thursday?
2008-12-02 21:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it just looks like there were buyers under yesterday's lows that figured that it couldn't keep going
2008-12-02 21:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't speak Japanese
2008-12-02 21:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never could get my head around stick charting techniques
2008-12-02 21:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I have to run
2008-12-02 21:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-12-02 21:28:54 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: thank you again
2008-12-02 21:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Thursday...
2008-12-02 21:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night

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