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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-20 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-20 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-20 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shell shocked it would seem)
2011-12-20 16:01:26 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: 
2011-12-20 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-20 16:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...one things for sure
2011-12-20 16:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we got a rally off of the small divergence we had yesterday, no one really expected what happened today
2011-12-20 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too often I'm surprised
2011-12-20 16:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I have a feeling that, like we had a couple of weeks ago, this was just another broadside by the bulls
2011-12-20 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right near or at where they needed to show some support on the MCSUM's
2011-12-20 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing on your minds
2011-12-20 16:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-12-20 16:06:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: saw .16 trin today
2011-12-20 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...about as low as the one we had on the day of the "announcement"
2011-12-20 16:06:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-12-20 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was .13
2011-12-20 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we see nothing but snapbacks to the MCO zero lines tonight
2011-12-20 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is in real do do
2011-12-20 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's so hard to trade during consolidations
2011-12-20 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day it looks like you're going to break
2011-12-20 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you get these reflex moves
2011-12-20 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  OK...
2011-12-20 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after showing a small amount of bullish divergence on Monday
2011-12-20 16:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO did indeed snapback to its zero line today
2011-12-20 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we again have balance between buyers and sellers on a short term basis
2011-12-20 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this zero line snapback is taking place as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is testing in and around the -250 level
2011-12-20 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was our next possible target where a pause might take place
2011-12-20 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2011-12-20 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we talked about last week how the market seemed to be firming up into OPEX
2011-12-20 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we had another attempt to break to the downside yesterday
2011-12-20 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market didn't really show the kind of leadership that one would expect if we were in the process of trending lower
2011-12-20 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2011-12-20 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure that many are finishing up any positions going into the holiday period now
2011-12-20 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...Hanukkah starts tonight
2011-12-20 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be a simple situation where with the perceived good news of housing starts this morning
2011-12-20 16:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many decided just to even up positions before taking the rest of the week off
2011-12-20 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: supposition on my part
2011-12-20 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's keep looking around and see how the rest of the internals look
2011-12-20 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2011-12-20 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's not forget the CO NYSE breadth MCO components which are still well below their zero line
2011-12-20 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% has now snapped back to "kiss" the 5% component
2011-12-20 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we had a zero line snapback
2011-12-20 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place right where we knew that some sort of stand was probably going to be taken
2011-12-20 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at both the NYSE breadth MCSUM zero line
2011-12-20 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also where the rising bottoms line connecting the August and October lows intersects
2011-12-20 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-12-20 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's theirs to lose now
2011-12-20 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what they don't want here
2011-12-20 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the structure of a Summation Failure
2011-12-20 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2011-12-20 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would include a continued couple of days of firmness above the MCO zero line
2011-12-20 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: providing us with a fishhook pattern in the MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that fails
2011-12-20 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN we move below this super important double support
2011-12-20 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going to be a good January at all
2011-12-20 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the U/D volume trend is already negative
2011-12-20 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's plenty of work still yet to do here for the bulls
2011-12-20 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who have been trading short here since the MCSUM sell signal of a month ago
2011-12-20 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's retracement should not had hurt too much if you're still holding and didn't have a predetermined stop
2011-12-20 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you did get stopped out, it should had been a profitable trade
2011-12-20 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes...amplitudes can just kill a trade
2011-12-20 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be very right
2011-12-20 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you get broadsided by low volume short covering rallies that can really take the wind out of your sails
2011-12-20 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2011-12-20 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I added to my shorts today at the close
2011-12-20 16:20:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2011-12-20 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with stops just above the early December highs
2011-12-20 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the warning here for this trade
2011-12-20 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we might need about 2-3 days to wear off the momentum just like we saw earlier this month
2011-12-20 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it might turn out to be a ho hum rest of the week
2011-12-20 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO components look a little better here than the commons
2011-12-20 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-12-20 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Bond CEF A/D line continues to move into new all time high territory
2011-12-20 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not surprising to see the broader market interest rate sensitive strength that this difference between the composite and the CO shows
2011-12-20 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line as well with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at the -500 level just as we expected
2011-12-20 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE data
2011-12-20 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can now push their MCO's above the highs of earlier this month
2011-12-20 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that would be our cue to step aside and close our shorts
2011-12-20 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would then allow the MCSUM's to turn higher
2011-12-20 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely to challenge their ledges/fishhooks we saw 2 weeks ago
2011-12-20 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern structure of both the NYA and the NASDAQ
2011-12-20 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see the outline of a symmetrical triangle on both
2011-12-20 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, was probably one of the reasons why we did find price support today since we basically closed on the rising bottoms lines of both price pattern structures yesterday
2011-12-20 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today just about at the mid point between the previous highs and yesterday's lows
2011-12-20 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what will turn out to be the apex area of these same triangles
2011-12-20 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO's at zero
2011-12-20 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also indicate balance between buyers and sellers internally with this same center point of indecision
2011-12-20 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...one side will be able to take control from here
2011-12-20 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which side will depend on what money decides to do
2011-12-20 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...snapback to zero on the NDX breadth MCO as well
2011-12-20 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components here remain basically "oversold" (or negative)
2011-12-20 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback towards the zero line on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the dangerous thing here is if we do find some near term strength by the bulls
2011-12-20 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean a near term snapback towards the SPX breadth MCSUM zero line as well
2011-12-20 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost following in the footsteps on what their volume cousins had already done
2011-12-20 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO and its components remain on a sell signal
2011-12-20 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX breadth MCSUM is now less than 100 data points away from finally testing its zero line
2011-12-20 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to zero on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I do believe that all 30 of the Dow components were higher today
2011-12-20 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get 26 of the 30 moving in one direction
2011-12-20 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually means climactic activity and a sign of exhaustion
2011-12-20 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be further understood
2011-12-20 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that until the various breadth MCSUM's can take out their ledge or fishhook formation tops
2011-12-20 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside activity in the MCSUM itself is still not complete
2011-12-20 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line on the MID breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM is attempting to find internal support at the -250 level
2011-12-20 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO seems to have had the best day of the majors settling above its zero line
2011-12-20 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components being under their zero line suggests this to be corrective activity
2011-12-20 16:37:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, the dow 5 and 10 indexes didn't cross over to a buy on that big pop...
2011-12-20 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing here is that we aren't seeing the same post expansion to the downside as we saw going into our previous hesitation points on the MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2011-12-20 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they didn't
2011-12-20 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...let's keep context here
2011-12-20 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the speed from where the components are either moving toward or away from each other
2011-12-20 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO at zero...there was little in the way of acceleration in either direction
2011-12-20 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components represent the distance they are from being net neutral in their directional movement
2011-12-20 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if they are below the zero line
2011-12-20 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both EMA's moving lower
2011-12-20 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with today's zero line snapback, the distance between the two is neither expanding nor contracting
2011-12-20 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when either cross their zero line
2011-12-20 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this same component is closing or expanding the gap between the two EMA's
2011-12-20 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if the distance between the two EMA's was wide going into today
2011-12-20 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would still be under their zero line
2011-12-20 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the speed in which this distance is either expanding or contracting was nil today
2011-12-20 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does that make sense?
2011-12-20 16:41:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, thanks
2011-12-20 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM then translates all of these variables into how far the two components are from each other from crossing over
2011-12-20 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current reading of -250 (for example)
2011-12-20 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA is wider than when we have a zero reading on the MCSUM, but only half as wide as they would be if the MCSUM was at the -500 level
2011-12-20 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a visual thing
2011-12-20 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more you work with moving averages, and the raw data that posts their plots, the easier it is to embrace this kind of analysis
2011-12-20 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line snapback in the TM breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the two EMA's have stopped the spread between their readings
2011-12-20 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the TM breadth MCSUM at a reading of -200
2011-12-20 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA is still a bit of a distance away from moving back above the 39 day EMA
2011-12-20 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it is called "trending" to the downside
2011-12-20 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today being a pause to refresh in this same negative trend
2011-12-20 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...pauses can turn into something good for the other side
2011-12-20 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like a cruise ship
2011-12-20 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though the forward motion has come to a halt
2011-12-20 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still going to take some time to turn the ship around before it can then have forward motion in that new direction
2011-12-20 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-12-20 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO also had a zero line snapback
2011-12-20 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about last Thursday
2011-12-20 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears were not able to take advantage of their Summation Failure pattern by today
2011-12-20 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was likely, with the firmness in breadth we saw last Wednesday and Thursday, that the bears might lose the ball on an interception
2011-12-20 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and intercept the bulls did
2011-12-20 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did they take the ball away
2011-12-20 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they also picked up some good yardage to mid field in the process (the MCO zero line)
2011-12-20 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a ways from a touchdown
2011-12-20 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a field goal attempt
2011-12-20 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something like that doesn't help if the market decides to blow you out with a 3% move
2011-12-20 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the composite NYSE volume MCO
2011-12-20 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO data
2011-12-20 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO components remain rather negative here
2011-12-20 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the downside trend in selling is still the short term trend in spite of today's hard and fast rally
2011-12-20 16:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO also saw a move higher today
2011-12-20 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place just where we thought it might have a chance in happening...in and around the October consolidation area on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we must stress here that this October consolidation area is probably the most important support area that we've had here since the 2009 lows
2011-12-20 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this should break
2011-12-20 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will have very little chance of recovery moving forward until a new structure is built
2011-12-20 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a whole new reset will have to take place on a intermediate term basis
2011-12-20 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be of months to maybe a year
2011-12-20 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weak cog in the machinery continues to be with the NDX volume MCO
2011-12-20 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we saw a lower low yesterday against of bigger tide of near term divergence with everything else out there
2011-12-20 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how we again saw an accelerated gap down and through the -250 level yesterday
2011-12-20 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what else did yesterday's downside accelerated gap do?
2011-12-20 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it broke below the October lows
2011-12-20 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have quite a bit of technical damage with the NDX volume data
2011-12-20 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-20 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe this is end of year selling
2011-12-20 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe its a re-balance
2011-12-20 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know we usually see a re-balance in either the RUT or NDX this time of year...Darris??
2011-12-20 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been stuck taking inventory over the last couple of days...so if anyone has anything on any announcement of a re-balance, I would be grateful
2011-12-20 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like its breadth cousin
2011-12-20 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO snapped back towards its zero line
2011-12-20 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both remain negative
2011-12-20 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the OEX volume MCO
2011-12-20 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but note the accelerated gap lower with yesterday's decline below the zero line lows of early December
2011-12-20 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO, components, and MCSUM are all now dead neutral now
2011-12-20 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to pick up the baton and run with it
2011-12-20 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback as well on the MID volume MCO
2011-12-20 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML volume MCO, like its breadth counterpart, back above its zero line
2011-12-20 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has turned the SML volume MCSUM higher right at its -250 level
2011-12-20 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (it's amazing how this happens time and time again at these 250 multiples, isn't it?)
2011-12-20 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much the same situation with the TM volume MCO and MCSUM
2011-12-20 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-20 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we currently have equal balance between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2011-12-20 17:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the intermediate term still a bit on the wishy washy side
2011-12-20 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the great majority showing a bearish advantage
2011-12-20 17:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember last weeks high Open 10's?
2011-12-20 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just another example of how its always very difficult for the bears to create a downtrend trend when the Open 10's get above 1.10
2011-12-20 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, boy, the "ball in the deep end of the pool" analogy sure showed a great example today of letting the ball go and seeing it thrust itself back above the water line
2011-12-20 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are pretty much climactic
2011-12-20 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price top in the next two trading days
2011-12-20 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now relieved much of the "oversold" readings now on the STVO's
2011-12-20 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain pretty much neutral here as well
2011-12-20 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .18
2011-12-20 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-12-20 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so right at the point of being "oversold"
2011-12-20 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .42
2011-12-20 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2011-12-20 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold" there
2011-12-20 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .36
2011-12-20 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2011-12-20 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-20 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still a pretty descent price floor below us
2011-12-20 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some addition price firmness is doable here
2011-12-20 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-20 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the potential problem for the bulls
2011-12-20 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are able to rally further
2011-12-20 17:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the early December price highs
2011-12-20 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is not confirmed by the MCSUM
2011-12-20 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a screaming sell on an intermediate term basis
2011-12-20 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we don't have the MCO moving above the same reaction high point of these same December highs
2011-12-20 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really bad things can happen once this vacuum between breadth and price is closed
2011-12-20 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls
2011-12-20 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their job remains the same
2011-12-20 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can get the MCO back above the highs of early November
2011-12-20 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have a good probability that a trading bottom is behind us
2011-12-20 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be important that breadth lead prices above these same early November (the price blow off of late October)
2011-12-20 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this doesn't occur
2011-12-20 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we still have corrective and not trending activity
2011-12-20 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll then be in for more to and fro action for several weeks more at a minimum
2011-12-20 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very tough market here
2011-12-20 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the emotional side saying "this doesn't look good"
2011-12-20 17:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile, every time we test important support zones, like magic, money comes in as if its waiting for just the right moment
2011-12-20 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being in a consolidation
2011-12-20 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this isn't so much far fetched as one might think
2011-12-20 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like buying when an oscillator is "oversold" and selling when its "overbought"
2011-12-20 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: portfolio managers will buy when prices hit a trend line of previous support
2011-12-20 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sell when they hit overhead resistance lines
2011-12-20 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good thing though about this is...
2011-12-20 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the distance between these same two lines of support and resistance are narrowing
2011-12-20 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each day were closer to a resolution
2011-12-20 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MCSUM wise
2011-12-20 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation for a tradable low coming at or near the end of this year remains on target
2011-12-20 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the symmetrical triangle
2011-12-20 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same low, if we continue to build the texture we starting seeing yesterday, could be a low in which we move out of from instead of one we go down into
2011-12-20 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to continue to monitor...with the forecast continuing to be defensive, with a bearish bias
2011-12-20 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get better configurations with the internals
2011-12-20 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2011-12-20 17:21:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it can still go either way here, don't care for the super low trin saves, though-not true buying to me
2011-12-20 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, it's not
2011-12-20 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also know that almost all up-trends start with short covering rally's
2011-12-20 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here though
2011-12-20 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that volume is still weak on a trending basis
2011-12-20 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this hard reversal was far too far and too fast
2011-12-20 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its a holiday shortened week after December OPEX
2011-12-20 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was nothing of real importance as it turned out
2011-12-20 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's ISEE reading was something like 78 again
2011-12-20 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the specs continue to buy puts on every sell off
2011-12-20 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they got their heads handed to them today
2011-12-20 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even a chance to cover
2011-12-20 17:23:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, I'd just need to see true buyers-I guess money flow will show it when it comes. That said, that NDX picture isn't pretty-and mom and dad bought a boatload of calls today
2011-12-20 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your mom and dad?
2011-12-20 17:24:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no-I trade their money, LOL
2011-12-20 17:24:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Equity players
2011-12-20 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-12-20 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another thing here
2011-12-20 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not going to mention any names
2011-12-20 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are some over on a message board that we all know about
2011-12-20 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who's timing on posts is just remarkable as their read on the direction on the market
2011-12-20 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are almost 90% wrong each and every time
2011-12-20 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I cringe when they make a post
2011-12-20 17:25:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-12-20 17:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-12-20 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not going to mention any names
2011-12-20 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they only post right at bottoms or tops
2011-12-20 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-20 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to see how these same folks react now that they we're literally blown out of their market calls yesterday
2011-12-20 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-20 17:27:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx.
2011-12-20 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...it will be the same schedule for this Thursday
2011-12-20 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Tuesday and Thursday next week as well
2011-12-20 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Bonds are closed on Friday
2011-12-20 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think stocks are closed on Monday?
2011-12-20 17:28:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-12-20 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know?
2011-12-20 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should had just closed the markets on Friday
2011-12-20 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silly
2011-12-20 17:28:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hope nobody needs bonds Friday, LOL
2011-12-20 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see what happens with the Spanish bonds tomorrow
2011-12-20 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were the trigger for the futures this morning
2011-12-20 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2011-12-20 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just could be that we're just not going to see any real action now until next year
2011-12-20 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did everyone have a chance to look at the breadth charts over the weekend?
2011-12-20 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Bond A/D line is at all time highs
2011-12-20 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Preferred A/D hugging its rising bottoms line
2011-12-20 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the REITS ended the week quite nicely
2011-12-20 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if they broke out to the upside today?
2011-12-20 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-20 17:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Bond and preferred stocks still showing firmness here
2011-12-20 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very unlikely that we're going to see any kind of longer term bear market
2011-12-20 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bigger context here is
2011-12-20 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a challenge of the November price lows
2011-12-20 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all the way down to the summer of 2010 lows
2011-12-20 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after that
2011-12-20 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see the uptrend from the 2009 lows continue
2011-12-20 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean
2011-12-20 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we'll continue to take a pause in this same uptrend (birds eye view wise)
2011-12-20 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-20 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off a bit on the early side tonight
2011-12-20 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-12-20 17:33:49 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2011-12-20 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what the market has in store for us on Thursday
2011-12-20 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-12-20 19:51:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: Fib, Randy made the NDX and RUT updates over this past weekend for the re-balance in both indexes.  I know there were 5 issues for the NDX, but no idea how many for the RUT (thanks Darris)
2011-12-20 20:00:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: NYSE TRIN from the NYSE data was 0.203 today

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