All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,885
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-20 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-20 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-20 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shell shocked it would seem)
2011-12-20 16:01:26 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: 
2011-12-20 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-20 16:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things for sure
2011-12-20 16:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we got a rally off of the small divergence we had yesterday, no one really expected what happened today
2011-12-20 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too often I'm surprised
2011-12-20 16:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I have a feeling that, like we had a couple of weeks ago, this was just another broadside by the bulls
2011-12-20 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right near or at where they needed to show some support on the MCSUM's
2011-12-20 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing on your minds
2011-12-20 16:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-12-20 16:06:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: saw .16 trin today
2011-12-20 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...about as low as the one we had on the day of the "announcement"
2011-12-20 16:06:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-12-20 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was .13
2011-12-20 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we see nothing but snapbacks to the MCO zero lines tonight
2011-12-20 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is in real do do
2011-12-20 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's so hard to trade during consolidations
2011-12-20 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day it looks like you're going to break
2011-12-20 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you get these reflex moves
2011-12-20 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  OK...
2011-12-20 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after showing a small amount of bullish divergence on Monday
2011-12-20 16:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO did indeed snapback to its zero line today
2011-12-20 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we again have balance between buyers and sellers on a short term basis
2011-12-20 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this zero line snapback is taking place as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is testing in and around the -250 level
2011-12-20 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was our next possible target where a pause might take place
2011-12-20 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2011-12-20 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we talked about last week how the market seemed to be firming up into OPEX
2011-12-20 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we had another attempt to break to the downside yesterday
2011-12-20 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market didn't really show the kind of leadership that one would expect if we were in the process of trending lower
2011-12-20 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2011-12-20 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure that many are finishing up any positions going into the holiday period now
2011-12-20 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...Hanukkah starts tonight
2011-12-20 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be a simple situation where with the perceived good news of housing starts this morning
2011-12-20 16:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many decided just to even up positions before taking the rest of the week off
2011-12-20 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: supposition on my part
2011-12-20 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's keep looking around and see how the rest of the internals look
2011-12-20 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2011-12-20 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's not forget the CO NYSE breadth MCO components which are still well below their zero line
2011-12-20 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% has now snapped back to "kiss" the 5% component
2011-12-20 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we had a zero line snapback
2011-12-20 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place right where we knew that some sort of stand was probably going to be taken
2011-12-20 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at both the NYSE breadth MCSUM zero line
2011-12-20 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also where the rising bottoms line connecting the August and October lows intersects
2011-12-20 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-12-20 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's theirs to lose now
2011-12-20 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what they don't want here
2011-12-20 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the structure of a Summation Failure
2011-12-20 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2011-12-20 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would include a continued couple of days of firmness above the MCO zero line
2011-12-20 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: providing us with a fishhook pattern in the MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that fails
2011-12-20 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN we move below this super important double support
2011-12-20 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going to be a good January at all
2011-12-20 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the U/D volume trend is already negative
2011-12-20 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's plenty of work still yet to do here for the bulls
2011-12-20 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who have been trading short here since the MCSUM sell signal of a month ago
2011-12-20 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's retracement should not had hurt too much if you're still holding and didn't have a predetermined stop
2011-12-20 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you did get stopped out, it should had been a profitable trade
2011-12-20 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes...amplitudes can just kill a trade
2011-12-20 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be very right
2011-12-20 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you get broadsided by low volume short covering rallies that can really take the wind out of your sails
2011-12-20 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2011-12-20 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I added to my shorts today at the close
2011-12-20 16:20:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2011-12-20 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with stops just above the early December highs
2011-12-20 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the warning here for this trade
2011-12-20 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we might need about 2-3 days to wear off the momentum just like we saw earlier this month
2011-12-20 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it might turn out to be a ho hum rest of the week
2011-12-20 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO components look a little better here than the commons
2011-12-20 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-12-20 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Bond CEF A/D line continues to move into new all time high territory
2011-12-20 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not surprising to see the broader market interest rate sensitive strength that this difference between the composite and the CO shows
2011-12-20 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line as well with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at the -500 level just as we expected
2011-12-20 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE data
2011-12-20 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can now push their MCO's above the highs of earlier this month
2011-12-20 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that would be our cue to step aside and close our shorts
2011-12-20 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would then allow the MCSUM's to turn higher
2011-12-20 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely to challenge their ledges/fishhooks we saw 2 weeks ago
2011-12-20 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern structure of both the NYA and the NASDAQ
2011-12-20 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see the outline of a symmetrical triangle on both
2011-12-20 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, was probably one of the reasons why we did find price support today since we basically closed on the rising bottoms lines of both price pattern structures yesterday
2011-12-20 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today just about at the mid point between the previous highs and yesterday's lows
2011-12-20 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what will turn out to be the apex area of these same triangles
2011-12-20 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO's at zero
2011-12-20 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also indicate balance between buyers and sellers internally with this same center point of indecision
2011-12-20 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: side will be able to take control from here
2011-12-20 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which side will depend on what money decides to do
2011-12-20 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...snapback to zero on the NDX breadth MCO as well
2011-12-20 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components here remain basically "oversold" (or negative)
2011-12-20 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback towards the zero line on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the dangerous thing here is if we do find some near term strength by the bulls
2011-12-20 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean a near term snapback towards the SPX breadth MCSUM zero line as well
2011-12-20 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost following in the footsteps on what their volume cousins had already done
2011-12-20 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO and its components remain on a sell signal
2011-12-20 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX breadth MCSUM is now less than 100 data points away from finally testing its zero line
2011-12-20 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to zero on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I do believe that all 30 of the Dow components were higher today
2011-12-20 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get 26 of the 30 moving in one direction
2011-12-20 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually means climactic activity and a sign of exhaustion
2011-12-20 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be further understood
2011-12-20 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that until the various breadth MCSUM's can take out their ledge or fishhook formation tops
2011-12-20 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside activity in the MCSUM itself is still not complete
2011-12-20 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line on the MID breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM is attempting to find internal support at the -250 level
2011-12-20 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO seems to have had the best day of the majors settling above its zero line
2011-12-20 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components being under their zero line suggests this to be corrective activity
2011-12-20 16:37:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, the dow 5 and 10 indexes didn't cross over to a buy on that big pop...
2011-12-20 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing here is that we aren't seeing the same post expansion to the downside as we saw going into our previous hesitation points on the MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2011-12-20 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they didn't
2011-12-20 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...let's keep context here
2011-12-20 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the speed from where the components are either moving toward or away from each other
2011-12-20 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO at zero...there was little in the way of acceleration in either direction
2011-12-20 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components represent the distance they are from being net neutral in their directional movement
2011-12-20 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if they are below the zero line
2011-12-20 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both EMA's moving lower
2011-12-20 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with today's zero line snapback, the distance between the two is neither expanding nor contracting
2011-12-20 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when either cross their zero line
2011-12-20 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this same component is closing or expanding the gap between the two EMA's
2011-12-20 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if the distance between the two EMA's was wide going into today
2011-12-20 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would still be under their zero line
2011-12-20 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the speed in which this distance is either expanding or contracting was nil today
2011-12-20 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does that make sense?
2011-12-20 16:41:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, thanks
2011-12-20 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM then translates all of these variables into how far the two components are from each other from crossing over
2011-12-20 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current reading of -250 (for example)
2011-12-20 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA is wider than when we have a zero reading on the MCSUM, but only half as wide as they would be if the MCSUM was at the -500 level
2011-12-20 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a visual thing
2011-12-20 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more you work with moving averages, and the raw data that posts their plots, the easier it is to embrace this kind of analysis
2011-12-20 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line snapback in the TM breadth MCO
2011-12-20 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the two EMA's have stopped the spread between their readings
2011-12-20 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the TM breadth MCSUM at a reading of -200
2011-12-20 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA is still a bit of a distance away from moving back above the 39 day EMA
2011-12-20 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it is called "trending" to the downside
2011-12-20 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today being a pause to refresh in this same negative trend
2011-12-20 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...pauses can turn into something good for the other side
2011-12-20 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like a cruise ship
2011-12-20 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though the forward motion has come to a halt
2011-12-20 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still going to take some time to turn the ship around before it can then have forward motion in that new direction
2011-12-20 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-12-20 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO also had a zero line snapback
2011-12-20 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about last Thursday
2011-12-20 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears were not able to take advantage of their Summation Failure pattern by today
2011-12-20 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was likely, with the firmness in breadth we saw last Wednesday and Thursday, that the bears might lose the ball on an interception
2011-12-20 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and intercept the bulls did
2011-12-20 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did they take the ball away
2011-12-20 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they also picked up some good yardage to mid field in the process (the MCO zero line)
2011-12-20 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a ways from a touchdown
2011-12-20 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a field goal attempt
2011-12-20 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something like that doesn't help if the market decides to blow you out with a 3% move
2011-12-20 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the composite NYSE volume MCO
2011-12-20 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO data
2011-12-20 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO components remain rather negative here
2011-12-20 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the downside trend in selling is still the short term trend in spite of today's hard and fast rally
2011-12-20 16:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO also saw a move higher today
2011-12-20 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place just where we thought it might have a chance in and around the October consolidation area on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-12-20 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we must stress here that this October consolidation area is probably the most important support area that we've had here since the 2009 lows
2011-12-20 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this should break
2011-12-20 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will have very little chance of recovery moving forward until a new structure is built
2011-12-20 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a whole new reset will have to take place on a intermediate term basis
2011-12-20 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be of months to maybe a year
2011-12-20 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weak cog in the machinery continues to be with the NDX volume MCO
2011-12-20 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we saw a lower low yesterday against of bigger tide of near term divergence with everything else out there
2011-12-20 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how we again saw an accelerated gap down and through the -250 level yesterday
2011-12-20 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what else did yesterday's downside accelerated gap do?
2011-12-20 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke below the October lows
2011-12-20 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have quite a bit of technical damage with the NDX volume data
2011-12-20 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-20 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe this is end of year selling
2011-12-20 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe its a re-balance
2011-12-20 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know we usually see a re-balance in either the RUT or NDX this time of year...Darris??
2011-12-20 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been stuck taking inventory over the last couple of if anyone has anything on any announcement of a re-balance, I would be grateful
2011-12-20 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like its breadth cousin
2011-12-20 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO snapped back towards its zero line
2011-12-20 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both remain negative
2011-12-20 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the OEX volume MCO
2011-12-20 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but note the accelerated gap lower with yesterday's decline below the zero line lows of early December
2011-12-20 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO, components, and MCSUM are all now dead neutral now
2011-12-20 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to pick up the baton and run with it
2011-12-20 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback as well on the MID volume MCO
2011-12-20 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML volume MCO, like its breadth counterpart, back above its zero line
2011-12-20 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has turned the SML volume MCSUM higher right at its -250 level
2011-12-20 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (it's amazing how this happens time and time again at these 250 multiples, isn't it?)
2011-12-20 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much the same situation with the TM volume MCO and MCSUM
2011-12-20 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-20 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we currently have equal balance between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2011-12-20 17:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the intermediate term still a bit on the wishy washy side
2011-12-20 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the great majority showing a bearish advantage
2011-12-20 17:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember last weeks high Open 10's?
2011-12-20 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just another example of how its always very difficult for the bears to create a downtrend trend when the Open 10's get above 1.10
2011-12-20 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, boy, the "ball in the deep end of the pool" analogy sure showed a great example today of letting the ball go and seeing it thrust itself back above the water line
2011-12-20 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are pretty much climactic
2011-12-20 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price top in the next two trading days
2011-12-20 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now relieved much of the "oversold" readings now on the STVO's
2011-12-20 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain pretty much neutral here as well
2011-12-20 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .18
2011-12-20 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-12-20 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so right at the point of being "oversold"
2011-12-20 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .42
2011-12-20 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2011-12-20 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold" there
2011-12-20 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .36
2011-12-20 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2011-12-20 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-20 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still a pretty descent price floor below us
2011-12-20 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some addition price firmness is doable here
2011-12-20 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-20 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the potential problem for the bulls
2011-12-20 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are able to rally further
2011-12-20 17:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the early December price highs
2011-12-20 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is not confirmed by the MCSUM
2011-12-20 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a screaming sell on an intermediate term basis
2011-12-20 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we don't have the MCO moving above the same reaction high point of these same December highs
2011-12-20 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really bad things can happen once this vacuum between breadth and price is closed
2011-12-20 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls
2011-12-20 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their job remains the same
2011-12-20 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can get the MCO back above the highs of early November
2011-12-20 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have a good probability that a trading bottom is behind us
2011-12-20 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be important that breadth lead prices above these same early November (the price blow off of late October)
2011-12-20 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this doesn't occur
2011-12-20 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we still have corrective and not trending activity
2011-12-20 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll then be in for more to and fro action for several weeks more at a minimum
2011-12-20 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very tough market here
2011-12-20 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the emotional side saying "this doesn't look good"
2011-12-20 17:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile, every time we test important support zones, like magic, money comes in as if its waiting for just the right moment
2011-12-20 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being in a consolidation
2011-12-20 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this isn't so much far fetched as one might think
2011-12-20 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like buying when an oscillator is "oversold" and selling when its "overbought"
2011-12-20 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: portfolio managers will buy when prices hit a trend line of previous support
2011-12-20 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sell when they hit overhead resistance lines
2011-12-20 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good thing though about this is...
2011-12-20 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the distance between these same two lines of support and resistance are narrowing
2011-12-20 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each day were closer to a resolution
2011-12-20 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MCSUM wise
2011-12-20 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation for a tradable low coming at or near the end of this year remains on target
2011-12-20 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the symmetrical triangle
2011-12-20 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same low, if we continue to build the texture we starting seeing yesterday, could be a low in which we move out of from instead of one we go down into
2011-12-20 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to continue to monitor...with the forecast continuing to be defensive, with a bearish bias
2011-12-20 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get better configurations with the internals
2011-12-20 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2011-12-20 17:21:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it can still go either way here, don't care for the super low trin saves, though-not true buying to me
2011-12-20 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, it's not
2011-12-20 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also know that almost all up-trends start with short covering rally's
2011-12-20 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here though
2011-12-20 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that volume is still weak on a trending basis
2011-12-20 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this hard reversal was far too far and too fast
2011-12-20 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its a holiday shortened week after December OPEX
2011-12-20 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was nothing of real importance as it turned out
2011-12-20 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's ISEE reading was something like 78 again
2011-12-20 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the specs continue to buy puts on every sell off
2011-12-20 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they got their heads handed to them today
2011-12-20 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even a chance to cover
2011-12-20 17:23:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, I'd just need to see true buyers-I guess money flow will show it when it comes. That said, that NDX picture isn't pretty-and mom and dad bought a boatload of calls today
2011-12-20 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your mom and dad?
2011-12-20 17:24:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no-I trade their money, LOL
2011-12-20 17:24:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Equity players
2011-12-20 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-12-20 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another thing here
2011-12-20 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not going to mention any names
2011-12-20 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are some over on a message board that we all know about
2011-12-20 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who's timing on posts is just remarkable as their read on the direction on the market
2011-12-20 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are almost 90% wrong each and every time
2011-12-20 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I cringe when they make a post
2011-12-20 17:25:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-12-20 17:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-12-20 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not going to mention any names
2011-12-20 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they only post right at bottoms or tops
2011-12-20 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-20 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to see how these same folks react now that they we're literally blown out of their market calls yesterday
2011-12-20 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-20 17:27:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx.
2011-12-20 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be the same schedule for this Thursday
2011-12-20 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Tuesday and Thursday next week as well
2011-12-20 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Bonds are closed on Friday
2011-12-20 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think stocks are closed on Monday?
2011-12-20 17:28:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-12-20 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know?
2011-12-20 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should had just closed the markets on Friday
2011-12-20 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silly
2011-12-20 17:28:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hope nobody needs bonds Friday, LOL
2011-12-20 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see what happens with the Spanish bonds tomorrow
2011-12-20 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were the trigger for the futures this morning
2011-12-20 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2011-12-20 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just could be that we're just not going to see any real action now until next year
2011-12-20 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did everyone have a chance to look at the breadth charts over the weekend?
2011-12-20 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Bond A/D line is at all time highs
2011-12-20 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Preferred A/D hugging its rising bottoms line
2011-12-20 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the REITS ended the week quite nicely
2011-12-20 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if they broke out to the upside today?
2011-12-20 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-20 17:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Bond and preferred stocks still showing firmness here
2011-12-20 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very unlikely that we're going to see any kind of longer term bear market
2011-12-20 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bigger context here is
2011-12-20 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a challenge of the November price lows
2011-12-20 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all the way down to the summer of 2010 lows
2011-12-20 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after that
2011-12-20 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see the uptrend from the 2009 lows continue
2011-12-20 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean
2011-12-20 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we'll continue to take a pause in this same uptrend (birds eye view wise)
2011-12-20 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-20 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off a bit on the early side tonight
2011-12-20 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-12-20 17:33:49 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2011-12-20 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what the market has in store for us on Thursday
2011-12-20 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-12-20 19:51:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: Fib, Randy made the NDX and RUT updates over this past weekend for the re-balance in both indexes.  I know there were 5 issues for the NDX, but no idea how many for the RUT (thanks Darris)
2011-12-20 20:00:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: NYSE TRIN from the NYSE data was 0.203 today

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch