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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,532
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-12-18 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Holy Moly...good day!
2014-12-18 16:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 16:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-12-18 16:00:34 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 16:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I mean really?
2014-12-18 16:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 16:00:39 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: awesome!
2014-12-18 16:00:46 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Back long
2014-12-18 16:00:47 [Message] oranges -> Chat: What a rally ...
2014-12-18 16:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...I got to tell you
2014-12-18 16:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had the sense that this was some sort of cycle nesting
2014-12-18 16:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the last two days, it might turn out to be the right call
2014-12-18 16:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a shame that it knocked out the longs
2014-12-18 16:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm getting ahead of myself without looking
2014-12-18 16:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once we moved above the horizontal resistance on Wednesday
2014-12-18 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what we technically get after a turn such as this
2014-12-18 16:02:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Knocked out the longs?
2014-12-18 16:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...yea
2014-12-18 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the MCO move below the divergent lows
2014-12-18 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was not expected
2014-12-18 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and needed to be respected
2014-12-18 16:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other side of the coin
2014-12-18 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the 3.57 TRIN
2014-12-18 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had those consecutive days of below 80 in the ISEE
2014-12-18 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the data should be interesting tonight
2014-12-18 16:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-12-18 16:04:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It got me last week
2014-12-18 16:04:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good call Tuesday on an up Wednesday
2014-12-18 16:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday was a killer day for the longs as to this being your every day corrective sequence
2014-12-18 16:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we were scraping the bottom of the barrel
2014-12-18 16:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any further destruction would had called the whole pattern sequence since 2012 into question
2014-12-18 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have though
2014-12-18 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML holding up nicely
2014-12-18 16:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if we had an important trend change from up to down, history has shown that the SML would be leading
2014-12-18 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had the cost of money on the bull's side
2014-12-18 16:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with interest rates on the 10 year near 2%
2014-12-18 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it was a nice relief rally to be sure
2014-12-18 16:06:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: sure was Thanks
2014-12-18 16:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we have to see what still needs to be done before we can call the whole process complete
2014-12-18 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of those put buyers...ugh
2014-12-18 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine?
2014-12-18 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big heavy sigh
2014-12-18 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's so important to watch the P/C ratios about 2 weeks before the front month expiration
2014-12-18 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...give me one more moment and we'll get started
2014-12-18 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE had a great day on Wednesday
2014-12-18 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now up against its first resistance point at $79
2014-12-18 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an 8% move in 3 days
2014-12-18 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we kept pointing to this happening and what it would likely do to market prices
2014-12-18 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2014-12-18 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-12-18 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above last weeks reaction highs
2014-12-18 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO powered above its declining tops line today
2014-12-18 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it settled above its zero line
2014-12-18 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the highs of earlier this month
2014-12-18 16:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because or our moving as quickly as we did to fill the vacuum created by the 3 day mini crash
2014-12-18 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation from here is for a snapback to our toward the zero line to again find market balance between the buyers and sellers
2014-12-18 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE MCO components
2014-12-18 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have miraculously moved back above the zero line on both components AND we have a crossover buy signal generated today
2014-12-18 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: together with the MCO
2014-12-18 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a technical buy all around
2014-12-18 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM attempting to find support at around the +200 level
2014-12-18 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely after such a large drop in prices
2014-12-18 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a ledge formation develop in the MCSUM
2014-12-18 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we should see one more final move to the downside and our expected challenge of the MCSUM zero line
2014-12-18 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a successful finish to this correction would come if the NYSE CO MCO is able to move above the highs of late November at around the +40 level
2014-12-18 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally
2014-12-18 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above the +50 level would be preferred
2014-12-18 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this is accomplished
2014-12-18 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to look for additional backing and filling so that a proper foot hold can be constructed so that any further attempt to move to new price highs will be supported by underlying capital
2014-12-18 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the forthcoming holidays, this process is not likely to conclude until the end of December
2014-12-18 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those looking for this so called "Santa" rally to continue
2014-12-18 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be prepared to be disappointed
2014-12-18 16:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it should be quite volatile for another week or so
2014-12-18 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...as we move to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-12-18 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is why we're not quite ready to gap and go
2014-12-18 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this MCO has only fulfilled the expectation of a snapback to its zero line
2014-12-18 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling today with a +4 reading
2014-12-18 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-12-18 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect that the sellers will now be able to grab the ball back as it were
2014-12-18 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even temporary
2014-12-18 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the short term trend of the market is now evened up between buyers and sellers
2014-12-18 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2014-12-18 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that they are both back above their zero lines as well
2014-12-18 16:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a small positive crossover in its pattern
2014-12-18 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's nice
2014-12-18 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as over extended as we were on the downside on Tuesday
2014-12-18 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reasonable expectation here is that we would like see some sort of throw over on the opposite end of the scale just to balance things out
2014-12-18 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could change tomorrow with further strength and taking out the end November high point
2014-12-18 16:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of that happening are below 50% given how far and how fast we moved in this opposite direction
2014-12-18 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, as we suspected, the FED was used as the excuse to do so
2014-12-18 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the shorts covered in earnest
2014-12-18 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-12-18 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we're attempting to find support at the +200 level
2014-12-18 16:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as with the NYSE CO data
2014-12-18 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here would be for a ledge to form near term
2014-12-18 16:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a final thrust to the downside to complete this corrective process
2014-12-18 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bulls can again regroup and try again to move above the +600 level
2014-12-18 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2014-12-18 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we can allow the MCSUM to move as far down as the -250 level
2014-12-18 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still be in a corrective sequence
2014-12-18 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a couple of weeks of tax selling
2014-12-18 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with two shortened holiday weeks
2014-12-18 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market could just traverse sideways to work off any additional momentum on both sides of the zero line
2014-12-18 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll able to trend after the first of the year
2014-12-18 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the other charts are showing
2014-12-18 16:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2014-12-18 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even moved to its highest level since November
2014-12-18 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're even back on a crossover buy signal with the components
2014-12-18 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM moving down and through its zero line on Tuesday
2014-12-18 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now snapping back to this same line of neutrality
2014-12-18 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with our expectation for the NYSE MCSUM's
2014-12-18 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this zero line wash out is all we need here for a solid bottom in prices
2014-12-18 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do show follow through here over the next couple of days to the upside
2014-12-18 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a better signal to move in on the long side
2014-12-18 16:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NYSE group of stocks goes through its final wash out of its own
2014-12-18 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then follows the lead of the secondary stocks to the upside
2014-12-18 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we now know that the FED is going to continue to hold down rates through at least the summer of 2015 now
2014-12-18 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should support the growth sector for the next couple of months
2014-12-18 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only this exchange of stocks
2014-12-18 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also those issues that are pretty much in this same basket
2014-12-18 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the small caps, and to a lesser degree, the mid caps
2014-12-18 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on our experience in what we generally see in a strong uptrend
2014-12-18 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do see the NASDAQ and SML continue to shake off any further price decay against the large caps
2014-12-18 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then later set up a buy point for the SPX at what would be deemed "wholesale prices"
2014-12-18 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2014-12-18 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the strongest year in a decade is the year ending in 5
2014-12-18 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be next year
2014-12-18 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the Presidential Cycle suggesting a strong period for next year
2014-12-18 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this really doesn't mean much
2014-12-18 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is a proper foundation to work off of
2014-12-18 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's continue to look around
2014-12-18 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having found support at the October lows
2014-12-18 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO powered higher over the last couple of days
2014-12-18 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still remains below its zero line
2014-12-18 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that
2014-12-18 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also remains below its short term declining tops line as well
2014-12-18 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again
2014-12-18 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is substantive information showing us that we're not quite ready to break out of this range as yet
2014-12-18 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more important
2014-12-18 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do break out here price wise
2014-12-18 16:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there won't be any internal confirmation with it
2014-12-18 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what shows up right before we see important price tops
2014-12-18 16:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's keep an eye out on this one
2014-12-18 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and as we pointed to on Tuesday
2014-12-18 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern found snapback support right at the previous highs of summer
2014-12-18 16:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: *like magic*
2014-12-18 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-12-18 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a zero line snapback complete there
2014-12-18 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2014-12-18 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the SPX breadth MCSUM as high as it is
2014-12-18 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this actually makes it difficult for the sellers to keep the pressure on
2014-12-18 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once released of this downside pressure
2014-12-18 16:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoosh...up we go
2014-12-18 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or in this case - up we went
2014-12-18 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also with this zero line snapback in the SPX MCO
2014-12-18 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have moved up to the declining tops line controlling that pattern
2014-12-18 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with two levels of overhead resistance
2014-12-18 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take quite a bit of fuel to break above both of these challenges
2014-12-18 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we used so much fuel to get to where we are now after Tuesday's spanking
2014-12-18 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause to refresh is probably needed
2014-12-18 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if for anything else
2014-12-18 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to regroup so that an attempt to break above this same resistance zone might actually be successful
2014-12-18 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-12-18 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are lagging the 500
2014-12-18 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a terrible thing
2014-12-18 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's far better to have a basket of 500 stocks leading that of only 100 issues
2014-12-18 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's this "divergence" that tells us that we're not quite ready to trend higher from current levels
2014-12-18 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's going to take some additional time and testing to make sure that underlying monetary support will be there in order for prices to have stability on any further advance
2014-12-18 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the SPX
2014-12-18 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO components, though back above their zero lines, have yet to see a positive crossover
2014-12-18 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given what the components represent
2014-12-18 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's maybe rising
2014-12-18 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the shorter term EMA is not rising fast enough to show that there is enough fuel to actually launch prices on a preferred trajectory to higher highs
2014-12-18 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like having the shuttle's external tanks doing the work at lift off
2014-12-18 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the main engines on the shuttle are not operating properly to propel the vehicle into orbit
2014-12-18 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the engines must work together to achieve this preferred goal of escaping the grips of the bear market default (or in this descriptive case, gravity)
2014-12-18 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also pulled up short of its zero line
2014-12-18 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling today with a -25 reading
2014-12-18 16:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we know all too well
2014-12-18 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 25 multiples in the MCO act as natural areas of support or resistance just as the 250 levels do with the MCSUM
2014-12-18 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would then be a good place to see this MCO fall back from current levels
2014-12-18 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then make a more concentrated effort to see zero line balance between buyers and sellers in the index itself
2014-12-18 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess here is that this imbalance remains with the oil stocks
2014-12-18 16:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have further to go to reach this same parity between traders
2014-12-18 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll note also that the Dow breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at the +1000 level
2014-12-18 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might see some play in this area
2014-12-18 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we finally move toward the +750 level
2014-12-18 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the plan of...
2014-12-18 16:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we take out of the recent imbalance between buyers and sellers in the index
2014-12-18 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better chance for prices in this index to rally with a greater amplitude
2014-12-18 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback and we moved above the early December highs now in the MID breadth MCO
2014-12-18 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a solid price low in place now in this index
2014-12-18 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why it's important that we take out all three resistance points that were talked about on Tuesday in the MCO's
2014-12-18 16:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reaction high of last week
2014-12-18 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the declining tops line
2014-12-18 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the reaction highs above the MCO zero line before it moved sharply to the downside
2014-12-18 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without all 3 taken out
2014-12-18 16:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then leave the door open to a price retest
2014-12-18 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if all 3 are taken out
2014-12-18 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if there is an eventual test
2014-12-18 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't see prices move much beyond that level
2014-12-18 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...by extension
2014-12-18 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any lower price targets that were given previously are now cancelled
2014-12-18 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the higher price targets were cancelled on Monday
2014-12-18 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lower targets today
2014-12-18 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have a pretty good idea of where prices are likely to move for the near term
2014-12-18 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be...sideways
2014-12-18 16:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-12-18 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that prices can not trend unless both the short term and intermediate term trends of money flow are on the same side of either the MCO or MCSUM zero line respectively
2014-12-18 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there isn't agreement...then we trade sideways
2014-12-18 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2014-12-18 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was no panic in this room on Tuesday
2014-12-18 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we knew that even though the MCO's looked horrible
2014-12-18 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's were still above their zero lines with 2 noted exceptions
2014-12-18 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's so important to work with the physics of money flow that the McClellan tools give us to work with
2014-12-18 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as working with these tools takes the emotion out of the trade
2014-12-18 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-12-18 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we FINALLY moved above the +20 level today
2014-12-18 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out the series of tops of the last month in the process
2014-12-18 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this take out then
2014-12-18 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would then make good sense that we'll also see prices move above this same ceiling of overhead resistance on the price chart
2014-12-18 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while keeping in mind
2014-12-18 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the July price highs we see on the daily chart are of the all time variety
2014-12-18 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a good chance now that we'll see a test of those highs by early next week
2014-12-18 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order to break above them and STAY THERE
2014-12-18 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO will need to take out that small, teeny tiny blip higher we see around mid November
2014-12-18 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's taken out
2014-12-18 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll be able to see prices trend to the upside
2014-12-18 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the near term caveat to all this good news
2014-12-18 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we really need to see the SML MCO components also take out this same series of tops as well
2014-12-18 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that's accomplished
2014-12-18 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then, and only then, will we have enough fuel behind us to see this challenge of the all time highs
2014-12-18 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-12-18 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was an important statement day for the small caps
2014-12-18 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while many continue to use the RUT and SML as their bearish proxy on the market's direction
2014-12-18 17:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of them will again be disappointed in not taking a more rounded view of things when making such associations
2014-12-18 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line snapback to the TM breadth MCO has also been completed
2014-12-18 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this MCO perceptively took out its early December highs in this offering
2014-12-18 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy on the components as well
2014-12-18 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line bounce in the TM breadth MCSUM complete this relief rally sequence
2014-12-18 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the cross currents near term between the large caps and the "less deserving"
2014-12-18 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might push the TM breadth MCSUM to ride the zero line over the next week or two as this push and pull attempts to work its magic in created a strong foundation low
2014-12-18 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-18 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our anticipated relief rally is more than complete
2014-12-18 17:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with zero line snapbacks in many of the breadth MCO's the direct result
2014-12-18 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of our already taken out the divergent lows of October in many of the MCO's
2014-12-18 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would instruct us that we're going to need some time to build a new foundation so that prices will have the opportunity to again trend to the upside
2014-12-18 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a cursory view of the volume McClellan charts to see how they fared
2014-12-18 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we had zero line snapbacks as well in both the NYSE CO and NYSE Composite volume MCO's
2014-12-18 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice also how both of these same data charts show that the components also snapped back to their zero lines as well
2014-12-18 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would call for a near term pause in this snapback
2014-12-18 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bit of a pull back from zero should be seen over the next day or so
2014-12-18 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO also snapped back to its zero line
2014-12-18 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we see that the components are actually stronger than the MCO itself
2014-12-18 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the NAUD line EMA's are in a bullish configuration between each other
2014-12-18 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means that the NAUD line itself is close to be back at new (all time) highs
2014-12-18 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on and we see that we have nice strength in the MID volume MCO now
2014-12-18 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's leading its breadth cousin to the upside
2014-12-18 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still need to get above the end of November highs for us to be "in the clear" though
2014-12-18 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good volume thrust in the SML volume MCO to go along with its break above resistance
2014-12-18 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have confirmation there
2014-12-18 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the volume MCO's are either at or just below their zero lines
2014-12-18 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so pretty much in step with the breadth data
2014-12-18 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the sector breadth McClellan's
2014-12-18 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback complete now in the XLY breadth MCO
2014-12-18 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though both components are back above their zero line
2014-12-18 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do not have a bullish crossover there
2014-12-18 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice too that we are holding natural support at the +1000 level for now
2014-12-18 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's likely that we'll see some sort of continued downside there early next week
2014-12-18 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the XLP breadth MCO and the XLP breadth MCSUM
2014-12-18 17:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as mentioned at the top of the chat
2014-12-18 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the outside range day in the XLE on Tuesday turned out to be a price bottom for this sequence
2014-12-18 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLE breadth MCO thrusted higher to a +56 reading today
2014-12-18 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components, however, and we see that both remain below their zero line
2014-12-18 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we may have seen the lows for this sector on an intermediate term basis
2014-12-18 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still don't have the necessary confirmation to move into this basket of issues with any kind of surety
2014-12-18 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-12-18 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's watch the interplay with price as it challenges its 20 and 50 EMA's
2014-12-18 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you will note that the price pattern found initial resistance at the 20 day EMA today
2014-12-18 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2014-12-18 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices should first rally above the 20
2014-12-18 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find resistance at the 50
2014-12-18 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move back lower again to test the 20
2014-12-18 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then, and only then, if prices are able to move above the 50
2014-12-18 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is our accumulation signal
2014-12-18 17:25:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Like we had first week of this month in components and MCO?
2014-12-18 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 20 moving above the 50 your actual buy signal
2014-12-18 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-12-18 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EMA's provide us with a way to measure trend strength on different time levels
2014-12-18 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it be in the case of prices
2014-12-18 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or in the way money moves in and out of the market
2014-12-18 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...although many would love to jump aboard the XLE train here
2014-12-18 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably better and keep an eye on it as it goes about the process of sloshing around to find stability
2014-12-18 17:27:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-12-18 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have formidable gap resistance at $82 as well
2014-12-18 17:28:03 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-12-18 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2014-12-18 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: listen to what others say about the sector
2014-12-18 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if too many all of a sudden decide to jump in and say that the lows are in
2014-12-18 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't believe it for a second
2014-12-18 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bottom will come with the least amount of news
2014-12-18 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as traders begin to tire and get bored
2014-12-18 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLF
2014-12-18 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is another great example of how the McClellan's can help in knowing what prices are likely to do in the future
2014-12-18 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we had the XLF breadth MCO move to its lowest levels in over a year
2014-12-18 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today it was up 2.32%
2014-12-18 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2014-12-18 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because with the MCSUM as high as it is
2014-12-18 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any kind of buying stimulation is going to equate to a large move as this is the direction of least resistance
2014-12-18 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2014-12-18 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM declines from a high above the +500 level
2014-12-18 17:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't necessarily mean that prices have finished working off the momentum of what this same fuel has generated
2014-12-18 17:32:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: plus not all components below zero
2014-12-18 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it's hard to get arms around this concept when everything looks to be falling apart around you
2014-12-18 17:32:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Don't I know it
2014-12-18 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the physics in relation to money flow that actually drive prices one direction or the other
2014-12-18 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to have faith in whatever you use to measure such price dynamics
2014-12-18 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since math isn't emotional
2014-12-18 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2014-12-18 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more times than not
2014-12-18 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not the indicator that gave you the wrong signal
2014-12-18 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the emotion of your money moving that gave you that wrong signal
2014-12-18 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quick example
2014-12-18 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take me and RUSS this week
2014-12-18 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotionally
2014-12-18 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I felt it was going to the moon
2014-12-18 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically...I saw that it was blowing off
2014-12-18 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and banked
2014-12-18 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good thing I did
2014-12-18 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it saved me $20 a share
2014-12-18 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-12-18 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the idea here is first and foremost capital preservation
2014-12-18 17:36:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: If i understood this last week it would have kept be from sell XLF
2014-12-18 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't be blamed for that
2014-12-18 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you did, in essence, followed money
2014-12-18 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing about the market
2014-12-18 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter how many indicators tell us that a bottom or top might be near
2014-12-18 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the turn actually takes place
2014-12-18 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that turn can take place further below or above those current levels
2014-12-18 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you wait it out
2014-12-18 17:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get emotional
2014-12-18 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you get emotional
2014-12-18 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will tell you from experience
2014-12-18 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will likely sell near the bottom
2014-12-18 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or buy near the top
2014-12-18 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is waiting until the odds are in your favor
2014-12-18 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me ask you this
2014-12-18 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you make a profit?
2014-12-18 17:39:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes from Oct
2014-12-18 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no complaints?
2014-12-18 17:39:44 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Non whatsoever
2014-12-18 17:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that trade is over...
2014-12-18 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: congratulations
2014-12-18 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you beat the market
2014-12-18 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2014-12-18 17:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you cut any further loss of those profits
2014-12-18 17:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2014-12-18 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're able to come back again
2014-12-18 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter if it's $1000 or $1
2014-12-18 17:40:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is hard work
2014-12-18 17:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you must be disciplined in following your plan
2014-12-18 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that deserves you taking the Mrs out for dinner
2014-12-18 17:41:58 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Already have but thanks for the idea
2014-12-18 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the sectors are showing snapbacks in their MCO's as well
2014-12-18 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be duly pointed out that both the Dow Utilities and the XLU both closed as new all time highs today
2014-12-18 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there hasn't been a time that I can remember where the market topped out with the Utilities leading to the upside
2014-12-18 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that
2014-12-18 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the "promise" of the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line
2014-12-18 17:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and honestly
2014-12-18 17:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it wasn't for this rogue wave of earlier this week
2014-12-18 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our blueprint would had been right on target today
2014-12-18 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it isn't
2014-12-18 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we move on
2014-12-18 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-12-18 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see what happens with the CVI's after they move to climactic territory
2014-12-18 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the STVO's still generally "oversold"
2014-12-18 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call the VTO's mixed with an "oversold" bias
2014-12-18 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .47
2014-12-18 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of short covering today
2014-12-18 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at a more reasonable 1.06
2014-12-18 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we commented on for the last week or so
2014-12-18 17:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really difficult for the sellers to keep the downside pressure on when the Open 10 is above 1.20
2014-12-18 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .68
2014-12-18 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2014-12-18 17:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .62
2014-12-18 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 here too at .99
2014-12-18 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-18 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw an equal and opposite reaction of the constant pounding of selling from Friday until Tuesday
2014-12-18 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now fairly balanced now between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2014-12-18 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we are at or near the many MCO zero lines
2014-12-18 17:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can now take control of the action
2014-12-18 17:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our near term technical expectation is for some backing and filling in an attempt to provide a more solid textural base
2014-12-18 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this may take some time to do so...probably into the end of the year
2014-12-18 17:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength from here could be a nice window for a quick short to take advantage of this aberration
2014-12-18 17:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully by next Tuesday we will have a better time line on when we're likely to see our next rally attempt take place
2014-12-18 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2014-12-18 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chats are Monday and Tuesday next week
2014-12-18 17:53:13 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: following week also?
2014-12-18 17:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...
2014-12-18 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be taking the following week off
2014-12-18 17:53:33 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: very good
2014-12-18 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it's between the holidays
2014-12-18 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anyway...it's good to take a breather and then re-examine our progress
2014-12-18 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-12-18 17:54:24 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: BETS
2014-12-18 17:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2014-12-18 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2014-12-18 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2014-12-18 17:55:23 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: Q:  the summations are moderately higher at this current price bottom than they were at the last couple price bottoms from Aug and Oct...how do you interpret this (if there is a probable interpretation)?
2014-12-18 17:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -20
2014-12-18 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash
2014-12-18 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYAD and NAUD both back in bullish configurations
2014-12-18 17:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM provides the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of their respective A/D lines (cumulative money flow)
2014-12-18 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the distance between these two EMA's
2014-12-18 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stronger the trend
2014-12-18 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the narrower the distance
2014-12-18 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weaker the trend
2014-12-18 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let me look at the NYSE MCSUM for a moment to see what you're seeing
2014-12-18 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for example here
2014-12-18 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE MCSUM above its zero line
2014-12-18 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kept prices from declining in an important way
2014-12-18 17:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the position of October MCSUM was already on a bearish crossover
2014-12-18 17:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what this means then
2014-12-18 17:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that prices this time around
2014-12-18 17:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM now at +178
2014-12-18 17:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will not be able to trend much more below the levels seen on Tuesday
2014-12-18 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because the EMA's are further apart than August and October
2014-12-18 18:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reflexes with this positive EMA configuration will tend to be more robust
2014-12-18 18:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-12-18 18:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2014-12-18 18:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm saying this now
2014-12-18 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've already seen this happen
2014-12-18 18:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is what the MCSUM measures
2014-12-18 18:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the strength of the trend in which money is either move in or out
2014-12-18 18:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like a price pattern
2014-12-18 18:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wider the distance between a short term and intermediate term EMA provides this same kind of analysis
2014-12-18 18:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why
2014-12-18 18:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when EMA's cross
2014-12-18 18:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will tend to jump
2014-12-18 18:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as directional control moves from one side to the other
2014-12-18 18:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this causes varying degrees of trying to get through a revolving door to jump on this new direction
2014-12-18 18:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one side is proved wrong and they then try to compensate with the new trend
2014-12-18 18:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did that answer your question?
2014-12-18 18:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or do you have a follow up?
2014-12-18 18:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no question is a stupid one
2014-12-18 18:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 18:03:59 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: very good...thank you
2014-12-18 18:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  my best suggestion
2014-12-18 18:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to make up a chart that is the same as I show in the cumulative charts
2014-12-18 18:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM at the bottom
2014-12-18 18:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO at the top
2014-12-18 18:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the A/D line in the middle with the 19, 39 and 200 day EMA's
2014-12-18 18:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just watch how money reacts with these EMA's
2014-12-18 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then use the MCO to measure the directional strength between the two
2014-12-18 18:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then use the MCSUM to show you how far they are extended from each other
2014-12-18 18:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the extension
2014-12-18 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it is for prices to not only trend in this direction
2014-12-18 18:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the degree of any pullbacks can be anticipated by this same degree of trend
2014-12-18 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing is that the MCSUM measures the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMA
2014-12-18 18:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2014-12-18 18:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period
2014-12-18 18:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case closed
2014-12-18 18:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the cross each other
2014-12-18 18:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a zero line reading in the MCSUM
2014-12-18 18:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so where they are in relation to each other is probably the simplest and most powerful tool you can have in not only measuring market direction, but also the strength of that same direction
2014-12-18 18:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it be with money
2014-12-18 18:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just price itself
2014-12-18 18:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else are "compliments" to this information
2014-12-18 18:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't lead
2014-12-18 18:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or lag
2014-12-18 18:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they compliment
2014-12-18 18:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money is the trigger that pushes prices in one direction or the other
2014-12-18 18:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why nearly every technical oscillator out there uses this same data to measure momentum
2014-12-18 18:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they "compliment" the raw data
2014-12-18 18:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stronger the compliment
2014-12-18 18:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more reliable the expectation of what's likely to happen in the future
2014-12-18 18:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like most things in the business
2014-12-18 18:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like an onion
2014-12-18 18:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market comes in layers
2014-12-18 18:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the onion is the money that is either moving in or out
2014-12-18 18:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take off the cover
2014-12-18 18:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you get closer to what this means
2014-12-18 18:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you can time your trades more easily...both in and out
2014-12-18 18:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow up?
2014-12-18 18:11:40 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: no sir....I will digest this
2014-12-18 18:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take your time
2014-12-18 18:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ask questions
2014-12-18 18:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will tell you one thing
2014-12-18 18:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when all this hits you
2014-12-18 18:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will laugh out loud
2014-12-18 18:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you will discover what really moves prices
2014-12-18 18:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you will have clarity
2014-12-18 18:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a whole new way to plan your trading days
2014-12-18 18:12:54 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: cool...I like to laugh and trade well!
2014-12-18 18:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it happens...you will know it
2014-12-18 18:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not trying to cute here
2014-12-18 18:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like being in school
2014-12-18 18:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they teach you something
2014-12-18 18:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you "don't get it"
2014-12-18 18:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then suddenly, one day, someone explains it differently
2014-12-18 18:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and boom...the light goes off
2014-12-18 18:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give it time
2014-12-18 18:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm patient
2014-12-18 18:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-12-18 18:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: took me the better part of 20 years to "get it"
2014-12-18 18:14:43 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you for taking the time to explain
2014-12-18 18:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem
2014-12-18 18:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: happy to do so
2014-12-18 18:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-12-18 18:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-12-18 18:15:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks for the question Hawk and great explanations Dave.  Congrats to all those who stayed long in their trades.
2014-12-18 18:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-12-18 18:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Monday
2014-12-18 18:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-12-18 18:15:16 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good night all!  good trading

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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