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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-12-18 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day (!)
2013-12-18 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-12-18 16:00:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great thx. Nice call on the merchandising [smile]
2013-12-18 16:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there for the taking [smile]
2013-12-18 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always the little nuances that stand you apart from the crowd
2013-12-18 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be fair
2013-12-18 16:02:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: SO true
2013-12-18 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kinda underestimated the short covering
2013-12-18 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls did control
2013-12-18 16:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: me too!
2013-12-18 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we'll see if this is a classic "B" wave or not
2013-12-18 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without probably is
2013-12-18 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-12-18 16:05:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth was strong
2013-12-18 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2013-12-18 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2460/684 for the NYSE
2013-12-18 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1841/747 for the NASDAQ
2013-12-18 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much within the framework of a short covering rally
2013-12-18 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key now is if there's going to be any near term follow through
2013-12-18 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what today did with an exclamation point
2013-12-18 16:07:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: any follow through will put a new high on SPX
2013-12-18 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it took all of the spec puts to worthless
2013-12-18 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we closed at all time highs today on both the SPX and Dow?
2013-12-18 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look
2013-12-18 16:08:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2013-12-18 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after providing a small point change on Tuesday
2013-12-18 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2013-12-18 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both above the zero line
2013-12-18 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above the late November double top highs
2013-12-18 16:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now secures a price floor below us in the NYA especially if the Composite was able to do the same
2013-12-18 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO components
2013-12-18 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both are now back above their zero lines
2013-12-18 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2013-12-18 16:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generated a cross over buy signal today
2013-12-18 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in both cases
2013-12-18 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke above the declining tops lines of both the MCO and the components today
2013-12-18 16:11:06 [Message] orange -> Chat: would it make sense to get a snapback to the zero line here?
2013-12-18 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for the common stocks to be strong enough to where the NYA index will be able to move to higher highs
2013-12-18 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see this MCO move above the early November highs
2013-12-18 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could Matt
2013-12-18 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a reasonable expectation
2013-12-18 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the velocity of the move today
2013-12-18 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with those who did not climb on board prior
2013-12-18 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see some follow through at the open on Thursday
2013-12-18 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then stall out
2013-12-18 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is to be a snapback
2013-12-18 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might not happen now until Monday of next week because of Friday being OPEX
2013-12-18 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the other MCO's did today...that should help us answer that question
2013-12-18 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved sharply higher today
2013-12-18 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving above the zero line with relative ease
2013-12-18 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stalling just perceptively above the last reaction high point in the MCO
2013-12-18 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need a clean break above these levels
2013-12-18 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally above the +25 level
2013-12-18 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to secure the recent price lows at the 9950 level as being important support
2013-12-18 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here too
2013-12-18 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both the 10% and 5% Trends moved above their zero lines today
2013-12-18 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have a crossover buy in place
2013-12-18 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that our original expectation of seeing our first chance of a tradable low was within this time frame
2013-12-18 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do get further strength here
2013-12-18 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have to look back as last week as one of those rogue wave events
2013-12-18 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that just so happened to coincide with WWW
2013-12-18 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was good enough to move both the willing and unwilling sellers out of the market
2013-12-18 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2013-12-18 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a bit early to take this leap
2013-12-18 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the lesser issues did today
2013-12-18 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2013-12-18 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a crossover buy with the components
2013-12-18 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we mentioned yesterday
2013-12-18 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be finding pattern support right at the downward slanted series of bottoms that we see on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2013-12-18 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good strength as well in the NDX breadth MCO
2013-12-18 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we barely finished the day above the zero line with a +7 reading
2013-12-18 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but taking ruler to monitor
2013-12-18 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did close above the short term declining tops line seen on the NDX MCO
2013-12-18 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2013-12-18 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's intraday lows have now set a price floor for the market
2013-12-18 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we don't get the desired follow through to break free of the bear market default
2013-12-18 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the keystone has now been placed
2013-12-18 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a large upside move in the SPX breadth MCO
2013-12-18 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't enough to take out the reaction highs seen at the end of November
2013-12-18 16:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our going too far and too fast price wise today
2013-12-18 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the divergence we're seeing between the NYA and the SPX MCO's
2013-12-18 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a characteristic of a classic Elliott Wave "B" wave
2013-12-18 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one in which meets this far and fast description without money flow leading the way
2013-12-18 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-12-18 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rally today smelled bad
2013-12-18 16:24:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if the SPX makes new highs, though, won't it have to be an irregular?
2013-12-18 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is one of those easy ways to tell that days like today were short covering affairs with little, if any, fresh money moving in
2013-12-18 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can still be a flat
2013-12-18 16:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the irregular Fib retracments are...
2013-12-18 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wave "B" is 1.382 times the length of wave "A"
2013-12-18 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Wave "C" is 1.618 times the length of wave "A" from the "B" wave top
2013-12-18 16:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple flat would stall in and around this area
2013-12-18 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is a simple flat
2013-12-18 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would further fit our trading range expectation
2013-12-18 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what we already knew going into today
2013-12-18 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market was compressed
2013-12-18 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were seeing underlying strength coming into the up volume area
2013-12-18 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested stronger hands were supporting the market
2013-12-18 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger frame work of the correctional process is
2013-12-18 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were likely to see a consolidation that would take the look of either a trading range or triangle
2013-12-18 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it would be choppy and volatile
2013-12-18 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2013-12-18 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything has been met about as precisely as you're going to see
2013-12-18 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now...the next couple of days will finalize what the finished product will look like
2013-12-18 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: examples
2013-12-18 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's an irregular flat, then we will see the breadth MCO's take out their needed high points to provide the momentum thrust to reach these 1.382 targets
2013-12-18 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if prices move a bit more higher without the benefit of underlying strength
2013-12-18 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're either have a classic flat
2013-12-18 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (in that case a close in the SPX 1812 should not be expected)
2013-12-18 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could be a "B" wave in a triangle
2013-12-18 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can move to around 1816
2013-12-18 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let me do a little math for the fun of moment
2013-12-18 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm....
2013-12-18 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's something of interest
2013-12-18 16:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the daily volume today on this outside range day
2013-12-18 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 billion shares on the SPX
2013-12-18 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's well above average
2013-12-18 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and could be classified as a hard reversal initiation day
2013-12-18 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, we would still need both volume and breadth to support this
2013-12-18 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the math
2013-12-18 16:33:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1830.95 is irregular B
2013-12-18 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have 1829.31 intraday
2013-12-18 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close enough to 1825, huh?
2013-12-18 16:33:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2013-12-18 16:34:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I thought that before, too funny
2013-12-18 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we may have run out of steam at the end of November
2013-12-18 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might still reach the overall target given a couple months ago anyway
2013-12-18 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-12-18 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another great example of the dynamics that the MCSUM provides us
2013-12-18 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as when we see the MCSUM top out and start to move lower
2013-12-18 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that prices are finished with the momentum of the move
2013-12-18 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what fools those who are still learning how to work with these tools
2013-12-18 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they see the MCSUM turn higher or lower and then assume that prices will have no more opportunity to move beyond the point of this same MCSUM turning point
2013-12-18 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's anything that anyone takes away from these chats that will always make you a better trader, this is it
2013-12-18 16:36:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: boy, an irregular here would give the boys some great play...
2013-12-18 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who play the game otherwise are green to say the least
2013-12-18 16:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would Lew
2013-12-18 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-18 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the math one step further
2013-12-18 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets say it's 1829
2013-12-18 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "C" wave decline would take you back to 1761
2013-12-18 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be 11 points above our downside price targets given a week or two ago
2013-12-18 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2013-12-18 16:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of all of the corrective Elliott patterns out there
2013-12-18 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the irregular flat only takes place within trends of exceptional strength
2013-12-18 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once it concludes
2013-12-18 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be early January
2013-12-18 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch out
2013-12-18 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this is just fun stuff for now
2013-12-18 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how things are going with the rest of the indices
2013-12-18 16:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the OEX breadth MCO with a +1 reading
2013-12-18 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that we're attempting to gain support at the +250 level on the OEX breadth MCSUM
2013-12-18 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the Dow breadth MCO
2013-12-18 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Dow breadth MCSUM plays tag of its own at around the +500 level
2013-12-18 16:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what do we have here with the OEX and Dow?
2013-12-18 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have new price pattern highs with little in the way of control by the bulls
2013-12-18 16:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're at the zero line where there is now trading balance between both sides
2013-12-18 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can now take control once the momentum of today's move wanes
2013-12-18 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smells like a "B" to me
2013-12-18 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would help in confirming this as a counter corrective move today
2013-12-18 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to see those who were shouting that the top was in over the last 3 weeks now suddenly taking a bullish stance
2013-12-18 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens...
2013-12-18 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a cinch that today's rally will fail
2013-12-18 16:44:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: an irregular would probably leave a fishhook there-and we already had a ledge-just for fun
2013-12-18 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2013-12-18 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we don't have too much to work with as far as the large caps are concerned
2013-12-18 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might form ledges there
2013-12-18 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then fall off
2013-12-18 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2013-12-18 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not so much in favor of the irregular for the simple reason that we're not likely to do so without the large caps showing better strength in this reflex
2013-12-18 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what I'm saying?
2013-12-18 16:45:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely
2013-12-18 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were in better sync here across the board
2013-12-18 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then maybe
2013-12-18 16:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing though that's probably a pretty good bet here is that
2013-12-18 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see a continuation to the upside before we have another pause to refresh
2013-12-18 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-18 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected on Tuesday
2013-12-18 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did have a good technical day today
2013-12-18 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still needs to move above both the +25 level and the reaction highs of mid November before we can call it "in the clear"
2013-12-18 16:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our closing at the all time highs at the top of the range today
2013-12-18 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the buyers pick up the pace
2013-12-18 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have momentum divergence in place
2013-12-18 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's probably good for another week or two of back and fill
2013-12-18 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-12-18 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2013-12-18 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still look like we're not going to do much more than churn here until after the first of the year
2013-12-18 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it is nice to see that the today's rally timed itself nicely to what was our original time framework was before of what we were likely to get a tradable bottom
2013-12-18 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this increases the likelihood then that our current blue print is the right one
2013-12-18 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2013-12-18 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that were also successful here in being able to move back above the zero line and above the reaction highs of early December
2013-12-18 16:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is still not quite enough for us to take more of an offensive position
2013-12-18 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, it does lessen our being that much more defensive
2013-12-18 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure sounds like a trading range, doesn't it?
2013-12-18 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a nice day as well for the TM breadth MCO
2013-12-18 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we see here
2013-12-18 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a lot of work to do here before we can say that a successful trading low is behind us
2013-12-18 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 21 day close up chart of the TM breadth MCSUM
2013-12-18 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that we do have some gap resistance above current levels that will need to be taken out before today's turn in the MCSUM is one that can be traded
2013-12-18 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-12-18 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we found technical support where we should had
2013-12-18 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and short covering did the rest
2013-12-18 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market MCO's are showing a bit more strength than the derivatives
2013-12-18 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the large caps that seem to be the problem right now for any chance of seeing today's big day to be the start of something more longer lasting
2013-12-18 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would change our minds?
2013-12-18 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the volume McClellan's did...
2013-12-18 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a look at that
2013-12-18 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's had a nice day
2013-12-18 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both were able to move above last weeks high point
2013-12-18 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can see that there still more hurdles to overcome before we can feel comfortable
2013-12-18 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-12-18 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price lows of last week will likely provide strong support for the next couple of weeks
2013-12-18 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO showed much better strength today than the NYSE
2013-12-18 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so did the NDX volume MCO
2013-12-18 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls go about in trying to hold their horizontal support levels of the last year in their respective MCSUM's
2013-12-18 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback also complete on the SPX volume MCO
2013-12-18 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX volume MCO is lagging here
2013-12-18 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO has completed a simple zero line snapback
2013-12-18 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while both the MID and SML breadth MCO's have traveled back above their zero lines
2013-12-18 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both have no texture to their advance from their "oversold" levels of last week
2013-12-18 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's not likely to hold without some back and fill first
2013-12-18 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw good overall strength in the TM breadth MCO
2013-12-18 17:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too
2013-12-18 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see how this support has come rushing in a timely matter as the pattern attempts to hold its 1 year horizontal support level on the TM breadth MCSUM
2013-12-18 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-18 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between breadth and volume here
2013-12-18 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a classic short covering rally
2013-12-18 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have now shook the tree of both the willing and unwilling in both directions
2013-12-18 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the expectation from here is for another trip to challenge the price floor of this same range
2013-12-18 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the McClellan breadth sector charts
2013-12-18 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our expected pop to what looks like new price highs in the XLY
2013-12-18 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLY breadth MCO still needs to overcome the highs of late November
2013-12-18 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a relatively poor performance by the XLP breadth MCO
2013-12-18 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on our experience here of the last couple of years
2013-12-18 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market hasn't provided us with an advancing trend until we saw money move into this defensive sector first
2013-12-18 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wouldn't reasonable to believe that this will change because of how we, as humans, tend to slowly embrace our being long than we are being short
2013-12-18 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...the lack of money moving into Consumer Staples here today is suspect to an upcoming rally failure
2013-12-18 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE did indeed find price pattern support at the 85 level
2013-12-18 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the XLE breadth MCO is supporting a textural advance to the upside
2013-12-18 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could get a test of the upper range of this high level consolidation now
2013-12-18 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good character day for the XLF
2013-12-18 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw new recovery high close today
2013-12-18 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF breadth MCO moving above both its zero line and the recent reaction highs today
2013-12-18 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO was pulled up by its bootstraps today
2013-12-18 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains negative at this time
2013-12-18 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLI
2013-12-18 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we only got a zero line snapback in the XLI breadth MCO
2013-12-18 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only perceptively broke above the declining tops line in the pattern
2013-12-18 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a so so day
2013-12-18 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but having new highs is a good thing nonetheless
2013-12-18 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is probably has the best construction going for it right now
2013-12-18 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a higher low
2013-12-18 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a thrust
2013-12-18 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break above pattern resistance
2013-12-18 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not supporting the new all time price highs made today in the index
2013-12-18 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for a rally failure there
2013-12-18 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good momentum move to the upside today in the XLK breadth MCO
2013-12-18 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give us another week or two of this kind of action
2013-12-18 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to see good things happen to this basket of stocks in January
2013-12-18 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now have bull divergence in place with the XLU breadth MCO
2013-12-18 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this will now put any chance of a SOB trigger on the back burner for now
2013-12-18 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we hold here
2013-12-18 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then have a third point of a bottom above a bottom
2013-12-18 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where the pattern can then be referenced as a right angle triangle
2013-12-18 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a rising trend of bottoms
2013-12-18 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a flat top
2013-12-18 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall though
2013-12-18 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable that we're still stuck in a larger consolidation pattern going back to the May top
2013-12-18 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soo...
2013-12-18 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a real mixed bag with the sectors helps us in acknowledging that it's not likely that we're going to see much more upside here
2013-12-18 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our expectation of playing hit and run with both the long and short side from last week is still the preferred method of trading right now until we get more to work with
2013-12-18 17:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators
2013-12-18 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic
2013-12-18 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for a price top in the next two trading sessions
2013-12-18 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected from Tuesday
2013-12-18 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now neutral across the board
2013-12-18 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see the VTO's make their trek toward their zero lines over the next couple of days
2013-12-18 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (except the NDX which will bounce off this same zero line)
2013-12-18 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit surprising
2013-12-18 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE TRIN was only .72
2013-12-18 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would had thought it would had been below .50
2013-12-18 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2013-12-18 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprising again
2013-12-18 17:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ TRIN is at .80
2013-12-18 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92 - neutral
2013-12-18 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .82
2013-12-18 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2013-12-18 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no help there from yesterday
2013-12-18 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooooo...
2013-12-18 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had one of those classic news related short covering rallies today
2013-12-18 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have gone too far and too fast for it to hold all of today's gains
2013-12-18 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-12-18 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the opportunity to see higher price targets that might be generated by Fibonacci targets
2013-12-18 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how the BETS came out sec
2013-12-18 17:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the NAUD line
2013-12-18 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25
2013-12-18 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of note
2013-12-18 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NAAD and the NYAD moved back to bullish configurations today
2013-12-18 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you remember that inverted symmetrical triangle that I drew on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM chart a couple of weeks ago
2013-12-18 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we precisely bounced off the lower line today
2013-12-18 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line for tonight for the buyers: show me
2013-12-18 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get good follow through on Thursday
2013-12-18 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be in good enough shape then to maybe have a tradable low before the end of the year
2013-12-18 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2013-12-18 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with OPEX beginning tomorrow
2013-12-18 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and holiday's coming up
2013-12-18 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem doubtful
2013-12-18 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2013-12-18 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have learned ohhh so many times over the last 4 years
2013-12-18 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should NEVER underestimate the potential power of this market base
2013-12-18 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should have enough information after tomorrow to make a solid plan for the rest of the year
2013-12-18 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-18 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to find a way to keep Lew from being booted from the room [frown]
2013-12-18 17:32:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2013-12-18 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I have the time over the next couple of weeks, I'l look around to see what other chat software is available
2013-12-18 17:33:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll try and work on my end too..
2013-12-18 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything was fine with this one until Sun started messing around with their Java program
2013-12-18 17:33:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I hate sun
2013-12-18 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was version 6, build 23
2013-12-18 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2013-12-18 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their heart is in the right place
2013-12-18 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a shame that every browser finds it difficult to work with them
2013-12-18 17:34:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, but everyone tries to fix unbroken things
2013-12-18 17:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amen to that
2013-12-18 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2013-12-18 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how else are they to make money for your shareholders?
2013-12-18 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at MSFT
2013-12-18 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they finally got it right with XP
2013-12-18 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then they looked at the future and said...if we don't change it, we'll drown
2013-12-18 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a heads up
2013-12-18 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be out of town the week of January 13th
2013-12-18 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there won't be any chats that week
2013-12-18 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will make up the two sessions the week before and the week after
2013-12-18 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll put up the January schedule sometime next week
2013-12-18 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-18 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2013-12-18 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening
2013-12-18 17:37:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, good chat
2013-12-18 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again in less than 22 hours
2013-12-18 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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