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Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-12-17 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-12-17 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-12-17 16:00:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well, thx, and you?
2013-12-17 16:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fine and dandy...thanks for asking!!
2013-12-17 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-12-17 16:03:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: do you believe all this "taper starts this week" chatter? just unreal
2013-12-17 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be a plausible excuse for everything market
2013-12-17 16:04:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, it has to be fundamental
2013-12-17 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need one more minute
2013-12-17 16:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...lets get DP up and get working
2013-12-17 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we last met
2013-12-17 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had small point changes in many of the breadth MCO's
2013-12-17 16:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested a 1% move in the major market averages by Monday
2013-12-17 16:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the degree of our being "oversold" as we were
2013-12-17 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bet was for an upside resolution
2013-12-17 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-17 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after meeting that objective on Monday
2013-12-17 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market today consolidated those same gains
2013-12-17 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the close up bar chart of the NYA
2013-12-17 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's action actually closed Monday's upside pattern gap
2013-12-17 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled mid range
2013-12-17 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that Wednesday is likely to be a down close
2013-12-17 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-17 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2013-12-17 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the last couple of days of action was only enough to snapback this MCO to its declining tops line
2013-12-17 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until the buyers can breach above this line of negative influence
2013-12-17 16:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is vulnerable to "attack"
2013-12-17 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2013-12-17 16:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend found resistance at the 5% Trend today
2013-12-17 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both components remaining below their zero lines
2013-12-17 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would further suggests that the bears remain in control of the action for the time being
2013-12-17 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-17 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way in which the bears won't be able to continue the downside pressure would likely to be no announcement by the FED on any kind of change in monetary policy
2013-12-17 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they will likely "wait for more information before making a decision" as one month doesn't mean a trend
2013-12-17 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would fit into the idea that there isn't going to be much of any changes as the baton is transferred from Ben to Janet on February 1st
2013-12-17 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now what makes this idea even more plausible here
2013-12-17 16:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is just now approaching its zero line
2013-12-17 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to find some sort of support there as an attempt by the bulls to hold their balance between buyers and sellers is to be maintained
2013-12-17 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less when we move to the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2013-12-17 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are already at the zero line now
2013-12-17 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with many keying in on tomorrow's announcement
2013-12-17 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then likely to go on a two week vacation because of when the holiday's fall this year
2013-12-17 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this balance between buyers and sellers should give an opportunity for traders to even up any remaining shorts that might be outstanding here going into this Friday's OPEX
2013-12-17 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the NYSE breadth MCO itself
2013-12-17 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that not only did we move slightly above last weeks highs on Monday
2013-12-17 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with today's small point change "snapback" to this same reaction high today
2013-12-17 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tilt here is probably for the bears to be disappointed and to cover before closing the books for the year
2013-12-17 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-17 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is enough short covering tomorrow to not only take us back to the MCO zero line
2013-12-17 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to extend this move to the small double top highs of November
2013-12-17 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would pretty much slam the door on any further price decay during this current corrective process
2013-12-17 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the last two weeks of the year will likely be that of building a foundation to where another attempt by the buyers to re-initiate the larger uptrend will be tried after the 1st of the year
2013-12-17 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking moment
2013-12-17 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was checking when the December jobs number comes out...and it's scheduled on the 10th
2013-12-17 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's call the week of January the 6th as being the real first opportunity for the bulls to again flex their collective muscle
2013-12-17 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to today's small point change
2013-12-17 16:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again the market is coiled for whatever is announced tomorrow
2013-12-17 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2013-12-17 16:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have Ben's last news conference tomorrow as chair
2013-12-17 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing Ben's demeanor over the last several years
2013-12-17 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's definitely not going to stick his neck out on any short term policy questions and will likely give the feeling of status quo
2013-12-17 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-12-17 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also have a small point change of sorts
2013-12-17 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we look at the components here
2013-12-17 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that Monday's rally was able to not only move the 5% Trend back up to its zero line
2013-12-17 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also moved above it
2013-12-17 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing a bit more strength in the flow of money
2013-12-17 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend, however, wasn't as lucky of moving above its zero line
2013-12-17 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so overall, the market here is also coiled up for something near term
2013-12-17 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan's exports up a higher than expected 18.4%
2013-12-17 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which sends the message that things aren't too bad
2013-12-17 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2013-12-17 16:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the holiday season
2013-12-17 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if there's any follow through there after December
2013-12-17 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolute zero point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2013-12-17 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NDX breadth MCSUM continues to unwind nicely to the downside
2013-12-17 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's now close to meeting its downside measuring objective of the previous symmetrical triangle seen on the chart
2013-12-17 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX itself looks like it has hammered out a bottom of its expected trading range at the 3450 level
2013-12-17 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is for good upside follow through in the next couple of days to confirm that
2013-12-17 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also snapped back up to its declining tops line
2013-12-17 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where any break above this negative trend line would then secure a trading range low in the price pattern at the 1775 level
2013-12-17 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would then also reduce the odds of seeing the downside target of 1750
2013-12-17 16:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2013-12-17 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with several other breadth MCSUM's already broken below their October lows
2013-12-17 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect that this MCSUM would also compliment this
2013-12-17 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then would be a reasonable expectation still to be met (the 1750 level)
2013-12-17 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern's been a sloppy 3 days
2013-12-17 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of which we've been expecting
2013-12-17 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside range day on the OEX suggesting a down close on Wednesday
2013-12-17 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-12-17 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +250 level today
2013-12-17 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any near term follow through to that would confirm that our next stop will be the zero line on both
2013-12-17 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside and mid range close day in the Dow
2013-12-17 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the other indices
2013-12-17 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bar chart pattern suggests a consolidation of yesterday's run up in prices
2013-12-17 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see upside follow through on this as soon as tomorrow
2013-12-17 16:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the declining tops line there at around the 15,960 area
2013-12-17 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's still a good 80 points from where we closed today
2013-12-17 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the Dow breadth MCSUM settled today with a +516 reading
2013-12-17 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll either see some sort of natural support here being that we're near the +500 level
2013-12-17 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're going to slice though this same level like a hot knife
2013-12-17 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frankly
2013-12-17 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our already being deeply "oversold" last week
2013-12-17 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would give more of a tip of the cap to the buyers here
2013-12-17 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what will continue to be a relief rally from last weeks sell off
2013-12-17 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eyeballing the price chart
2013-12-17 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like we have retraced 50% now
2013-12-17 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a chance for a downside reversal as well
2013-12-17 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the Dow breadth MCO still with tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2013-12-17 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the MID breadth MCO
2013-12-17 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also note that it had a much better relief rally over the last couple of days as the MID breadth MCO stalled out at the -12 level on Monday
2013-12-17 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also interesting to note
2013-12-17 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MID breadth MCSUM is right now testing the October lows
2013-12-17 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where a move back above the zero line in the MID breadth MCO might be worth a buy for this basket a stocks with a tight stop
2013-12-17 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lastly...we note that today's price bar in the MID suggests that there was plenty of underlying support intraday today
2013-12-17 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wouldn't be at all surprising if we see buying at the open on Wednesday
2013-12-17 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside range day on the SML
2013-12-17 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the Dow
2013-12-17 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's one of those pause to refresh bars after a sharp advance
2013-12-17 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be indicative of a pause than it would be the expectation of a reversal
2013-12-17 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the SML breadth MCSUM remains above its October lows
2013-12-17 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can remain friendly to this basket of stocks
2013-12-17 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, includes, the RUT
2013-12-17 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...btw
2013-12-17 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard that there will be a re-balancing of the NDX on Friday
2013-12-17 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't heard anything on the RUT as yet
2013-12-17 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they tend to re-balance together
2013-12-17 16:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2013-12-17 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note on both the MID and SML
2013-12-17 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the MCO components on both are above their zero lines
2013-12-17 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so comparing apples to apples
2013-12-17 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mid and small caps remain in favor here
2013-12-17 16:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is not indicative of a top
2013-12-17 16:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what the cheer leading might be from the other side
2013-12-17 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2013-12-17 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM now one day away from reaching its goal of the zero line
2013-12-17 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-17 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we again have tension on the tape
2013-12-17 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are more signs that any release here near term will be an upside pop more so than a downside one
2013-12-17 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...all of this within the larger context of a corrective sequence
2013-12-17 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do get our upside pop
2013-12-17 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would pretty much set important trading range floors for several indices
2013-12-17 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the first step in creating the keystone necessary to pour the concrete for the foundation
2013-12-17 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's look
2013-12-17 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: declining trendlines continue to control the direction flow of participatory money at this time
2013-12-17 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the sellers remain in control at this time
2013-12-17 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though when we look at the NASDAQ volume MCO
2013-12-17 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that there is less sellers here
2013-12-17 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, we have good balance between buyers and sellers right now
2013-12-17 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when this occurs
2013-12-17 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can then take control of the situation for a couple of days
2013-12-17 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the buyers
2013-12-17 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important for them to move above the reaction highs seen on the NASDAQ volume MCO earlier this month
2013-12-17 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that's done
2013-12-17 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will continue to work with the bears
2013-12-17 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a little more up volume follow through in the NDX volume MCO
2013-12-17 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're still below the zero line there as well
2013-12-17 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in both the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCSUM's
2013-12-17 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note how important current levels have been over the last year
2013-12-17 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we hold here again
2013-12-17 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're likely to see new price highs pretty quickly if MCSUM turns higher
2013-12-17 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: conversely
2013-12-17 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and break below this same horizontal support would allow prices to decline to their pattern lows in October
2013-12-17 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's 125 points in the NASDAQ
2013-12-17 17:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about 150 points in the NDX
2013-12-17 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a good money maker
2013-12-17 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but first
2013-12-17 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals have to break support before there would be any chance of success
2013-12-17 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note that both the SPX and OEX breadth MCSUM's are also in around their +250 levels like their breadth cousins
2013-12-17 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so both of these indices are not only in sync internally
2013-12-17 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also between themselves
2013-12-17 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of sell off, or rally, will be done with little in the way of effort to do so
2013-12-17 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another little nuance of note
2013-12-17 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when we look at the SPX, OEX or Dow volume MCO's
2013-12-17 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that in all cases that after we had our zero line touch
2013-12-17 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all three raced to the downside with absolutely no texture
2013-12-17 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate a capitulation point
2013-12-17 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's small pullback from Thursday's lows
2013-12-17 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tends to indicate that stronger hands are in control near term
2013-12-17 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be experienced traders stepping in after the unwilling sellers capitulated last week...?
2013-12-17 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can hypothesis all day long
2013-12-17 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what the pattern is indicating that the buyers might be in a better position to profit from tomorrow's announcement than the sellers would be
2013-12-17 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID volume MCO
2013-12-17 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know what needs to happen here
2013-12-17 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need to show enough strength near term to take out last weeks small attempt to snapback to zero
2013-12-17 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's accomplished
2013-12-17 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then our trading range is set
2013-12-17 17:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the SML volume MCO
2013-12-17 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that here we did take out the blip resistance point on Monday
2013-12-17 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're likely to see much of any strength coming near term to flow more into the small caps, and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ, on any kind of "no news" event
2013-12-17 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2013-12-17 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about it
2013-12-17 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes a whole lot of fundamental sense
2013-12-17 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it's these two areas that feel the full effects of easier monetary policy to help grow their businesses with cheap money
2013-12-17 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or, in this case, cheaper money
2013-12-17 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at this
2013-12-17 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is back from our discussion of businesses getting hit with Dodd/Frank implementation in getting a higher minimum debt payments per month
2013-12-17 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer that interest rates remain at current levels
2013-12-17 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more "tolerable" it will be to work with this new law
2013-12-17 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2013-12-17 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current number at a -10
2013-12-17 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now slowed the rate of descent in the TM volume MCSUM right at where we've seen previous support over the last year
2013-12-17 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-17 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality is indicating that we may have had a wash out last week
2013-12-17 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that stronger hands are now stepping in prior to Wednesday's monetary policy statement
2013-12-17 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the media, and many traders comments on message boards, seem to be salivating at the bit that tomorrow will finally break this floor of support and allow the market to "finally decline like it should"
2013-12-17 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an equal and opposite outcome is probably the more realistic outcome
2013-12-17 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2013-12-17 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2013-12-17 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2013-12-17 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control near term
2013-12-17 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are "oversold"
2013-12-17 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are in a position now to snapback up to their zero lines
2013-12-17 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX VTO right at zero, so maybe a bounce there
2013-12-17 17:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.25
2013-12-17 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2013-12-17 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how the 21 day SMA of the TRIN is pretty much falling apart here
2013-12-17 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's now in a position from where we could see some stability come into the market as we saw back in August and October
2013-12-17 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2013-12-17 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2013-12-17 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .93
2013-12-17 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2013-12-17 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral as well
2013-12-17 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-17 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-12-17 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be setting a floor now
2013-12-17 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that any rally from here is likely to find resistance near the top of the range of the last 2 weeks
2013-12-17 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then shut the door on the speculative put buyers who were hoping that Wednesday would dig them out of their hole
2013-12-17 17:23:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: there have been a lot of call buyers buying this dip, though
2013-12-17 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the call buyers have already seen much of their premiums vanished with last weeks two day downside event
2013-12-17 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2013-12-17 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2013-12-17 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they've been conditioned to do so
2013-12-17 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every dip for the last 18 months has been a buy point
2013-12-17 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at yesterday
2013-12-17 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE was around 199!
2013-12-17 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with the specs
2013-12-17 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they ask for too much
2013-12-17 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's part of their character of being emotional traders
2013-12-17 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will likely happen before this is all over is really quite simple
2013-12-17 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same call dippers will finally be convinced that this time will be different as far as this being "the" top
2013-12-17 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is not the time to play the game of bait and switch
2013-12-17 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once they lick their wounds with their going long at the top of the rally (remember the 208 reading in the ISEE on 11/21?)
2013-12-17 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will get an equal and opposite move below 80
2013-12-17 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably to around 70
2013-12-17 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will be accompanied by the VTO's being "oversold"
2013-12-17 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and most importantly
2013-12-17 17:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Open 10's back above 1.10
2013-12-17 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what will be the amusing part of all of this
2013-12-17 17:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that, more than likely, prices will probably in and around current levels when this all happens later on
2013-12-17 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, is based on the merchandising technique of rallying the market
2013-12-17 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting everyone excited that things will continue because we're going to have a Santa rally as the FED isn't putting any coal into any stockings this year
2013-12-17 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there won't be enough power behind the rally to break to the upside
2013-12-17 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then between the holidays
2013-12-17 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we drift lower
2013-12-17 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get some "bad news"
2013-12-17 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  or maybe the excuse the people are selling for tax reasons
2013-12-17 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the specs load up again on puts
2013-12-17 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market bottoms
2013-12-17 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals diverge
2013-12-17 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go
2013-12-17 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in perfect technical world, of course [smile]
2013-12-17 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've all seen these kinds of things happen over and over again in the past
2013-12-17 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I might be wrong here
2013-12-17 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I believe that this is what we're likely to see over the next couple of days
2013-12-17 17:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and speaking of which
2013-12-17 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we have chat both tomorrow and Thursday
2013-12-17 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll be able to keep right on top of this
2013-12-17 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-17 17:32:00 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you, it was very helpful as usual
2013-12-17 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2013-12-17 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the FED gives a schedule to taper
2013-12-17 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it be reasonable to believe the market has discounted this already given the economic data of the last 2 weeks?
2013-12-17 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what could be worse?
2013-12-17 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-12-17 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have the end of the year
2013-12-17 17:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the changing of the guard on the horizon
2013-12-17 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really not likely that there's going to be too much in the way of disturbance to the force
2013-12-17 17:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2013-12-17 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would also think
2013-12-17 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if a policy change was indeed coming
2013-12-17 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't the overnight rates for Fed Funds be sneaking higher over the last couple of weeks?
2013-12-17 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no, they haven't
2013-12-17 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we will probably hear is
2013-12-17 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "things seem to be getting better
2013-12-17 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we want more data to be sure
2013-12-17 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our foot will remain clamped down on the accelerator pedal
2013-12-17 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we are cautious as we do see a (yield) curve ahead"
2013-12-17 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2013-12-17 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get the MCSUM's to move below their zero lines with the MCO's
2013-12-17 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are correcting
2013-12-17 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will tend to be choppy
2013-12-17 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as it would be as we enter a period of rough seas
2013-12-17 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pushing us one way, and then another, and we wind up going nowhere
2013-12-17 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be fun tomorrow
2013-12-17 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be watching how the market will take out the stops prior to the announcement
2013-12-17 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should watch for wide swings about 2 minutes before and about 5 minutes after
2013-12-17 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-17 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are we all ready?
2013-12-17 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then let's do this!
2013-12-17 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great day
2013-12-17 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how she all sorts out tomorrow at the same time
2013-12-17 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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