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Posts: 5,113
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-12-16 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-12-16 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-12-16 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still in one piece? [smile]
2014-12-16 16:00:49 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Doing well,  Hope you are! [smile]
2014-12-16 16:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks for asking
2014-12-16 16:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting ready for inventory here
2014-12-16 16:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always a lot of fun!
2014-12-16 16:01:32 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes looking forward to tonight's chat
2014-12-16 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too!
2014-12-16 16:01:38 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: it has been a little bipolar....imo
2014-12-16 16:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been a tough 3 days
2014-12-16 16:01:52 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: or perhaps I am
2014-12-16 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: naw
2014-12-16 16:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's quite a bit on the table right now
2014-12-16 16:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if a FED Statement is going to help or hinder here
2014-12-16 16:02:35 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: things not looking too well for Russia
2014-12-16 16:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2014-12-16 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something we touched upon a couple of weeks ago
2014-12-16 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wouldn't be the first time the Ruble has collapsed either
2014-12-16 16:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a ride up in RUSS over the last couple of days
2014-12-16 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: done with that now
2014-12-16 16:04:42 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Would love to get your thoughts on $TNX
2014-12-16 16:04:52 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: perhaps they will start selling their gold....and drive the price down further
2014-12-16 16:04:59 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: lol
2014-12-16 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a thought
2014-12-16 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they did so today?
2014-12-16 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point gold was up $15
2014-12-16 16:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in a blink it was down by the same amount
2014-12-16 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TNX
2014-12-16 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be trending lower...let me look
2014-12-16 16:05:57 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: it is
2014-12-16 16:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new lower close
2014-12-16 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like its full speed ahead to 1.8%
2014-12-16 16:06:53 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: noticed TLT matched it's panic high from October 15th today
2014-12-16 16:07:17 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2014-12-16 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trend on TLT is over extended here according to the ADX
2014-12-16 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2014-12-16 16:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the Bond CEF A/D line continues to move higher
2014-12-16 16:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interest rates will continue to trend lower
2014-12-16 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much for that "strong jobs report" of less than 2 weeks ago, huh?
2014-12-16 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-12-16 16:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Christmas Light indicator is as bullish as I've ever seen it
2014-12-16 16:09:34 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: ?
2014-12-16 16:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think I can remember a time where there's been so much lighted displays on homes as they are now
2014-12-16 16:09:35 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Never heard of it
2014-12-16 16:09:54 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh
2014-12-16 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Christmas Light indicator is a simple one
2014-12-16 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it provides great insight of how people are feeling during the holiday season
2014-12-16 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no polls
2014-12-16 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no numbers
2014-12-16 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just good old fashioned absorbing what's around you
2014-12-16 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: goes along the same vein as women's fashions
2014-12-16 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in colors and styles, but that's for another time
2014-12-16 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2014-12-16 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving below the divergent lows of mid October on Monday
2014-12-16 16:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO saw a slight bounce in the structure today
2014-12-16 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now highly "oversold" with a -81 reading
2014-12-16 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw that the 5% component of the CO MCO moved down and through its zero line on Monday as well
2014-12-16 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this configuration
2014-12-16 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now say that the market is no longer in a corrective sequence
2014-12-16 16:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is now impulsing to the downside
2014-12-16 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and during impulse sequences
2014-12-16 16:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes very difficult for the opposite side to gain enough of a foot hold in order to gain any kind of traction
2014-12-16 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good examples of this kind of momentum shift can be seen in the last couple of days of trading
2014-12-16 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there was a couple of attempts to provide support
2014-12-16 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both feel through as quickly as they were created
2014-12-16 16:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO MCO structure
2014-12-16 16:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to find solid texture to the downside
2014-12-16 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the sellers are able to maintain this series of tops beneath tops
2014-12-16 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will continue to show a great deal of weakness
2014-12-16 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as noted (tweeted) yesterday morning
2014-12-16 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intraday money flow component was still extremely week
2014-12-16 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even today it remained pretty much below EMA resistance
2014-12-16 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-12-16 16:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the 15 minute time period and up
2014-12-16 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cumulative TICK remains fully in gear to the downside
2014-12-16 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take the better part of the next week or so to correct this
2014-12-16 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-12-16 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that we can't see some sort of relief rally like we did today
2014-12-16 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the key now is to be able to find some follow through stability after the thrust of short covering has waned
2014-12-16 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-12-16 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see we had a small point change tonight
2014-12-16 16:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2014-12-16 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would have to guess that with the market as "oversold" as it is that the odds would favor an upside resolution to this current compression point in the pattern
2014-12-16 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the failure of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM not being able to climb beyond its resistance at the +600 level
2014-12-16 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might take a bit of back and fill first before the market will find a solid floor from which to work from
2014-12-16 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly in all this is...
2014-12-16 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we did take out the mid October lows in the MCO on Monday
2014-12-16 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as mentioned over the weekend
2014-12-16 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is now a "game changer"
2014-12-16 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where no longer is our preferred blue print workable...and probably for the rest of the year
2014-12-16 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that aside
2014-12-16 16:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many indications that we should see some sort of reaction low soon given the high bearish sentiment numbers
2014-12-16 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the higher TRIN numbers as well
2014-12-16 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we may have to yield to the idea that whatever is happening in Russia right now is something that we have to address given that they are showing little in the way of stability by raising their rates 6 points overnight
2014-12-16 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can have a ripple effect into Europe
2014-12-16 16:25:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not taken out Aug low MCO Is this too far back to consider?
2014-12-16 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is
2014-12-16 16:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the bulls
2014-12-16 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they do not want to see that happen
2014-12-16 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it's OK to move to deeply "oversold" levels as we are right now
2014-12-16 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there becomes a point between what's healthy and what's not
2014-12-16 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind, of course
2014-12-16 16:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have commented many times on how we've seen money flow in at such an abnormal pace to where we've seen many of the breadth MCSUM's stayed above their zero lines for over a year
2014-12-16 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something in which has never been seen before since 1926 when breadth data began to be collected
2014-12-16 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so fundamentals aside
2014-12-16 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can and should provide a period of consolidation after such a run up
2014-12-16 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we kinda got burned on that when the October bottom came about
2014-12-16 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to be candid here
2014-12-16 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only really been since last Friday when things "changed"
2014-12-16 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until then
2014-12-16 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything looked fine as far at the money flow was concerned
2014-12-16 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something happened Friday morning before the open that changed that
2014-12-16 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it was around 6am Eastern
2014-12-16 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until that time futures were flat
2014-12-16 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though I can't put my finger on it
2014-12-16 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've learned over the years that whatever the market does only in the fulness of time will the reasons be known
2014-12-16 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it was the start of the Russian problems
2014-12-16 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at RUSS
2014-12-16 16:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how it accelerated to the upside on Friday
2014-12-16 16:31:37 [Message] oranges -> Chat: Someone posted that chart on TT... wow
2014-12-16 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is something
2014-12-16 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got lucky and got in on the 8th at 26
2014-12-16 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I was trading pattern
2014-12-16 16:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only reason why I was even looking at it was that it was more of a play with rapidly falling oil prices and to which countries it would effect
2014-12-16 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes you just get lucky
2014-12-16 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I got out today because everyone was talking about less the panic mode is a sure sign of exhaustion since everyone would then "know"
2014-12-16 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2014-12-16 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the data
2014-12-16 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2014-12-16 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line
2014-12-16 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the price reaction because of it
2014-12-16 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was one of our whispers from last week that something might be up
2014-12-16 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it failed to move pass the +200 level on the MCSUM
2014-12-16 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our discussion in the difference between Summation Failures and classic Rally Failures
2014-12-16 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bullish side of things though
2014-12-16 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has yet to move below its October lows at this moment
2014-12-16 16:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do take out these same lows near term
2014-12-16 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then prices will be able to pull back all the way to these same mid October lows
2014-12-16 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the buyers
2014-12-16 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have quite a bit of work to do now
2014-12-16 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving above the accelerated declining tops line in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-12-16 16:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then to put a full stop to the current decline
2014-12-16 16:39:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Is today consider a positive MCO divergence?
2014-12-16 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see a move above last weeks spike point at the -20 level
2014-12-16 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is now challenging the lows of mid October
2014-12-16 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're deeply "oversold" to where if we're able to hold above the October lows
2014-12-16 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we would have a more solid price low to work with
2014-12-16 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the NASDAQ Composite
2014-12-16 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to move above the reaction spike high of last week on the MCO before the current decline can be held in check
2014-12-16 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that prices moved down and through the upside gap that we saw in late October above the old reaction highs
2014-12-16 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart wise
2014-12-16 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good thing
2014-12-16 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we could continue to see selling pick now because of this
2014-12-16 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that we moved down and through the +1000 level in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2014-12-16 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all I can say is that it's very fortunate here that this MCSUM's level is as high as it is or the technical damage would be much worse than what were seeing right now
2014-12-16 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the NDX MCO 5% Trend moved below its zero line today
2014-12-16 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see at least an attempt to snapback to this same zero line as soon as tomorrow
2014-12-16 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a lot of heavy selling going on here
2014-12-16 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to sell off as strong as they have been in the last couple of days
2014-12-16 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that there is some heavy liquidation going on right now in which is not being fully reported
2014-12-16 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2014-12-16 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very fortunate that liquidity levels have been as ample as they have been
2014-12-16 16:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the "failure to achieve" day on Thursday was the big tell here
2014-12-16 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, I guess...
2014-12-16 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we know why the BETS has remained stubbornly in cash all during this advance
2014-12-16 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX breadth MCO's are also deeply "oversold" now
2014-12-16 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have talked about in the past on the bull side of the MCO
2014-12-16 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we move into extreme territory
2014-12-16 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder and harder it is to keep up the pace in that same direction
2014-12-16 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-12-16 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a bounce in these deeply "oversold" MCO's
2014-12-16 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we might now see this extend itself into prices least at the onset
2014-12-16 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s very important that the buyers find some sort of solid ground from which to build from
2014-12-16 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like setting a ladder to climb to the roof...and having both feet on stable ground and not soft dirt
2014-12-16 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so more of a concrete foundation is needed here
2014-12-16 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...we haven't see this occur since last Thursday
2014-12-16 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...the Dow breadth MCO is at -147
2014-12-16 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lowest level since August of 2011
2014-12-16 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the issues that would be hardest hit with a lower oil prices, the mega international stocks, are getting taken out to the woodshed right now
2014-12-16 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a more worrisome situation is if we have lost last weeks buoyancy in the MID and let's look at that
2014-12-16 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the MID breadth MCO
2014-12-16 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we still remain above the mid October low point
2014-12-16 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2014-12-16 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID price chart
2014-12-16 16:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're still seeing a high level consolidation going on right now
2014-12-16 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 1450 on the high side
2014-12-16 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 1270 on the low side
2014-12-16 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a large range
2014-12-16 16:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% Trend of the MID breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2014-12-16 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's worth a technical bounce off this same line as soon as Wednesday
2014-12-16 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the SML breadth MCO
2014-12-16 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to see great buoyancy here in both the MCO and the price pattern itself
2014-12-16 16:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we are challenging the mid October divergent lows right now
2014-12-16 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further weakness near term would put the entire market toward a path of declining prices
2014-12-16 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2014-12-16 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're now challenging the mid October lows
2014-12-16 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM now a day away from reaching its zero line
2014-12-16 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-16 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the table was set last week
2014-12-16 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the sellers have now taken solid control of the action at this juncture
2014-12-16 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCO's now taking out their October lows
2014-12-16 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all upside price targets have now been canceled
2014-12-16 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market now in a state of flux in trying to find enough buyer support to where a floor, even that of a temporary one, can be seen
2014-12-16 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for our purposes
2014-12-16 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main focus in this attempt to hold will lie with the intraday cumulative TICK data
2014-12-16 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we want to see it level off...and then work its way back and forth to the upside and building EMA support
2014-12-16 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN see prices follow this new direction
2014-12-16 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw today
2014-12-16 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we see prices try an "end around" play and attempt to skirt the direction of capital
2014-12-16 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes not only a temporary event
2014-12-16 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you usually wind up where you were likely to end up anyway
2014-12-16 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the 5 minute chart..
2014-12-16 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes...
2014-12-16 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed at the lows of the day
2014-12-16 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the final swoon of the unwilling sellers getting out given the lack of being able to hold a 200 point intraday gain
2014-12-16 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at face value
2014-12-16 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we start to see enough pattern texture created by the buyers
2014-12-16 17:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are just going to continue to be heavy
2014-12-16 17:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-12-16 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this turns out to be a selective amount of selling because of extraordinary circumstances (Russia, for example)
2014-12-16 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that ends
2014-12-16 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pressure is off
2014-12-16 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we saw up until Tuesday of last week
2014-12-16 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the pressure is taken off the ball under the water line in the deep end of the pool
2014-12-16 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once release
2014-12-16 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball will move sharply in the opposite direction
2014-12-16 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make no mistake though
2014-12-16 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any initial rally here will fizzle after a couple of days
2014-12-16 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with OPEX coming on Friday
2014-12-16 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market as "oversold" as it is
2014-12-16 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the excuse of a Fed Statement can be used to help in this market dynamic
2014-12-16 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's
2014-12-16 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh...
2014-12-16 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's are not only continuing to lead to the downside
2014-12-16 17:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both are moving down and through their zero lines right now
2014-12-16 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I really don't like today's price bar in the NYA
2014-12-16 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're going to test the October price lows now
2014-12-16 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just really looking at the 5 minute chart today
2014-12-16 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugly
2014-12-16 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for it being "ugly" is that after we had shown momentum divergence at the open
2014-12-16 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were then able to take this divergence and rally off of it
2014-12-16 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move at 10:20 looked like a buy program that moved the SPX to unchanged
2014-12-16 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we hung around there enough to where the shorts got nervous and up we went
2014-12-16 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we proceeded to chop lower
2014-12-16 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced off the unchanged line
2014-12-16 17:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then failed just below the 2000 level
2014-12-16 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a weak open for Wednesday to start
2014-12-16 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2014-12-16 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are so deeply "oversold" here that we should find something to work with
2014-12-16 17:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two days have shown positive numbers in futures
2014-12-16 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once Europe opened...everything fell apart
2014-12-16 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the futures
2014-12-16 17:19:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: are WE looking at the 5 min Tick?
2014-12-16 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am...yes
2014-12-16 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2014-12-16 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the TICK
2014-12-16 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX
2014-12-16 17:20:18 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK thanks
2014-12-16 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I didn't get a chance to look at the 5 minute at all today
2014-12-16 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I did
2014-12-16 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but my interest wasn't in the SPX
2014-12-16 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last night
2014-12-16 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the futures are up
2014-12-16 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow 77
2014-12-16 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ES up 7.40
2014-12-16 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it was around midnight eastern when the Russian announcement hit the wires
2014-12-16 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes tonight
2014-12-16 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry..back to the charts
2014-12-16 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO is now down to the -80 level
2014-12-16 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's washed out
2014-12-16 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2014-12-16 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we have top beneath a top beneath a top working here
2014-12-16 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component of the NASDAQ volume MCO is just below the zero line now
2014-12-16 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's worth a technical bounce
2014-12-16 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX volume MCO is at new 52 week lows
2014-12-16 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could set our keystone that would be necessary for a near term foundational low
2014-12-16 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too the 5% Trend is at its zero line
2014-12-16 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this market is fully exhausted here to the downside
2014-12-16 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO is also deeply "oversold" with a -111 reading
2014-12-16 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: betcha that the STVO is now "oversold"
2014-12-16 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder if the VTO has broken below its zero line?
2014-12-16 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably has
2014-12-16 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2014-12-16 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't see our next tradable low until the VTO moves to "oversold"
2014-12-16 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about unloading the large caps...the OEX volume MCO is now fully extended to the downside
2014-12-16 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the velocity here on how much money is leaving this index based on the individual postings of the volume MCSUM's
2014-12-16 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly
2014-12-16 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume data is also showing a high degree of selling
2014-12-16 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MID and SML are holding here we might have seen the worse of days
2014-12-16 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID volume MCO is holding
2014-12-16 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's reading of a -50
2014-12-16 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with all of the MCO's however
2014-12-16 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we can break above the series of declining tops
2014-12-16 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID is still vulnerable to continued weakness
2014-12-16 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough one to call here
2014-12-16 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far and too fast...just need the strong hands to step in here, and we should see firmness going into Friday
2014-12-16 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO is showing a bit more weakness than the MID
2014-12-16 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now moved down and through the SML breadth MCSUM zero line
2014-12-16 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bearish pressure continues with the TM volume MCO
2014-12-16 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take a whole lot of money now to reverse the strong downside textural weakness we have in the TM volume MCO
2014-12-16 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-16 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for whatever the reason
2014-12-16 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers have stomped and mauled their way into power
2014-12-16 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the good news being
2014-12-16 17:34:22 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: pretty sizable post expansion on Financials...don't like that
2014-12-16 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are at a point in which the rubber band is so stretched that it can spring back at anytime
2014-12-16 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look
2014-12-16 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might have seen the price low today in the XLE today
2014-12-16 17:35:53 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: we are back testing the highs from September pretty aggressively
2014-12-16 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-12-16 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the prices leading breadth
2014-12-16 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this downside is not sustainable
2014-12-16 17:36:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat:  plus outside range trading day
2014-12-16 17:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not on the XLF
2014-12-16 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...I'm jumping around
2014-12-16 17:37:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: xle
2014-12-16 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the XLE...yes
2014-12-16 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're correct
2014-12-16 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to tell you
2014-12-16 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have done a lot of technical damage here
2014-12-16 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take the rest of the year to mend
2014-12-16 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, so far, it seems like this is something that is very similar to when we have a nesting of a major cycle and the market all of sudden realizes it and plays catch up
2014-12-16 17:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be wrong
2014-12-16 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's just too many extremes here in a very short period of time
2014-12-16 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't a clean pulse here
2014-12-16 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a heart attack
2014-12-16 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets look at the volume oscillators
2014-12-16 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....good
2014-12-16 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are climactic
2014-12-16 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a price low in the next two trading sessions
2014-12-16 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are deeply "oversold" now
2014-12-16 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we can see a intense relief rally here at any time
2014-12-16 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and "intense" meaning the Dow up 300
2014-12-16 17:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's have now broken below their zero lines
2014-12-16 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that takes care of the strong trend indication from last week (duh)
2014-12-16 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we'll have to wait for a move to "oversold" levels before we'll likely find a price low to work with
2014-12-16 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .94
2014-12-16 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.23
2014-12-16 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at 1.30 on Monday
2014-12-16 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-12-16 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get to these high levels in the TRIN
2014-12-16 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for the sellers to keep the downside pressure
2014-12-16 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-12-16 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must respect the ability of these same sellers to keep this pressure on for what it may suggest
2014-12-16 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.68
2014-12-16 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.09
2014-12-16 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're now "oversold" there too
2014-12-16 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2014-12-16 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these last 4 days have righted the ship of the longer term trend
2014-12-16 17:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no more complacency...that's for sure
2014-12-16 17:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even the market being called "boring"
2014-12-16 17:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.37
2014-12-16 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2014-12-16 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-12-16 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's now enough evidence to suggest that the rest of December is not likely to be a rising one
2014-12-16 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that much of the market is now deeply "oversold"
2014-12-16 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and entitled to a near term bounce
2014-12-16 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that on the backdrop of a positive Fed Statement
2014-12-16 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this should be enough to relieve this downside momentum
2014-12-16 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we will be highly volatile and choppy through the end of the week
2014-12-16 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market trying to find its way through the dust and debris of the last several days of selling
2014-12-16 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get this out of the way
2014-12-16 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then get a better idea on how long this indigestion period is likely to last
2014-12-16 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2014-12-16 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll take out clues from the BETS...we'll watch how things go with the energy sector
2014-12-16 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hope that whatever may be starting in the countries that rely heavily on crude
2014-12-16 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be contained soon and that further adverse affects will not be seen
2014-12-16 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since I'm talking like this
2014-12-16 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the low
2014-12-16 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-16 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the BETS moment
2014-12-16 17:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -60
2014-12-16 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Accumulate shorts with a bearish bias
2014-12-16 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but between me and you
2014-12-16 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would keep a tight stop on any shorts above current levels to lock in any gains made over the last couple of days
2014-12-16 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one is long
2014-12-16 17:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just hang on a little more
2014-12-16 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watch how your position does on the relief rally
2014-12-16 17:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of the price charts still well above their buy points of October
2014-12-16 17:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many long positions should continue to be profitable
2014-12-16 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we're looking for an exit until there is better clarity going forward
2014-12-16 17:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: day by day
2014-12-16 17:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-12-16 17:55:11 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: nothing here....thank you again sir. 
2014-12-16 17:55:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Here either
2014-12-16 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday was a bull killer
2014-12-16 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we had some information that told us to be careful prior to it
2014-12-16 17:56:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes we did
2014-12-16 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it shakes out
2014-12-16 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last thing
2014-12-16 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if by some chance Wednesday is a bad day
2014-12-16 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I might have a special chat session
2014-12-16 17:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will make an announcement on the main board if we do
2014-12-16 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so check it after the close
2014-12-16 17:57:56 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: will do
2014-12-16 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we rally...then we'll have our next session on Thursday
2014-12-16 17:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-12-16 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-12-16 17:58:19 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good night all....good trading!
2014-12-16 17:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-12-16 17:58:23 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2014-12-16 17:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's see what happens next
2014-12-16 17:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-12-16 17:58:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks fib and good night all
2014-12-16 17:59:11 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: good night

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