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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 

Sorry for the delay...a big THANK YOU to Mike (rite01) for forwarding the scripts!

fib1618:
good day

fib1618: how is everyone?

rite01: Good here and you

fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking

rite01: You bet... got some buy signals yesterday

fib1618: hmmm...interesting...in what areas?

rite01: couple Gary's price action and some MCO's

fib1618: well...we'll see what we got to work with in a moment

fib1618: OK...any questions or additional comments before we get started??

rite01: Gary’s V-Bottom reversal and Friday to Monday break pattern, several MCO’s Breadth at oversold levels, only $SML index with both breadth and vol MCO’s below November lows, Yesterdays price gap to fill and Option expiration week (hurt the shorts) plus FOMC meeting for good measure.

rite01: This was for today only

fib1618: whew...that's a lot!!

rite01: too many?

fib1618: let me check the BETS before we venture into breadth and volume land...one moment

fib1618: -75...no change from the weekend

fib1618: this was a somewhat critical day for the buyers

fib1618: for if they failed to reflex

fib1618: it could had been a very bad week for the market

fib1618: so with that said

fib1618: let's get SC up and get started

fib1618: after gaping to the downside on Friday

fib1618: the NYA index has now closed this gap today

fib1618: after "hammering" out a bottom on Monday

fib1618: mid range close suggests some near term indecision

fib1618: which would make sense since we finally have the FED statement tomorrow

fib1618: also of noteis that we find price pattern resistance at the area of which we had our previous intraday lows

fib1618: so, minimally, snapback complete

fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO

fib1618: and we see that we did bounce higher today

fib1618: so much so that we took out last weeks blip resistance area

fib1618: so we have the possibility that a trading bottom occurred on Monday, but not the probability of one

fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUMand it closed today just below the -250 support level

fib1618: so if the buyers are going to turn this thing around

fib1618: this would be the time to do so

fib1618: or a quick and decisive break in the NYA pattern to lower lows will be seen

fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO

fib1618: and here too we saw a bounce from a deeply "oversold" reading on Monday of -93

fib1618: however,unlike the CO MCO, we did NOT take out the reaction blip zone of last week

fib1618: and as long as this holds

fib1618: much of this is just the market's way of relieving severe near term imbalance

fib1618: and more than likely

fib1618: that of short covering and NOT fresh buying

fib1618: we'll see about that when we get to the TRIN's

fib1618: so far then,it would appear that after we had our technical breakdown in prices as the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line on Friday

fib1618: we filled the vacuum created by this abrupt change in control between buyers and sellers

fib1618: and stand now waiting for one side to resume control

fib1618: right now,the sellers have the odds on their side

fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO

fib1618: and here too we bounced higher today

fib1618:  but once again, we did not take out the blip area of last week in this process

fib1618: which leaves the prices vulnerable to a bearish ambush

fib1618: looking at the price chart of the COMPQ with our standard 20, 50 and 200 day EMA's

fib1618: and we see that prices reversed higher after probing below the 200 day EMA on Monday

fib1618: but couldn't enough strength to close above the 50 day EMA

fib1618: this pretty much locks us now within these two EMA's

fib1618: unless and until we get enough money either moving in or out to break the bonds of this EMA zone

fib1618: going back to the NYA, and it's not as lucky in this respect

fib1618: as it remains in a solid bearish configuration at this time

fib1618: which means that any bounces, at least for now, are to be looked upon as bear market rally's -sharp and short in their duration

fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUMis also at the important -255 level

fib1618: so here too the bulls really need to show good follow through on Wednesday

rite01: price bar on COMPQ?

fib1618: or we're going to revert back to the rhythm that brought our falling off a cliff last week

fib1618: price bar...not following

thespookyone: almost a downside reversal

fib1618: I did refer to it when reviewing its placement against its EMA's

fib1618: oh..rally failure...so far

rite01: sorry I missed it was adjusting my chart to right EMA's

fib1618: and this failure took place in its attempt to close back above its intermediate term EMA, and didn't succeed in doing so

fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO

fib1618: and here we had a good technical day for the buyers

fib1618: as we closed above two levels of prior hesitation areas on the MCO today

fib1618: so this would instruct us that much of the strength that the NASDAQ saw today were in the top 100

fib1618: which, as we have learned already, doesn't usually turn out to be a good thing later on

fib1618: we also have zero line snapbacks up to the zero lines on both the NDX components

fib1618: so taken together,it would appear that we have a rather large trading range now working in the NDXbetween 4500 and 4725

fib1618: and it would take a move back above the MCO zero line to secure the latest test we made on Monday

fib1618: in the case of the NDX.it found resistance at its 20 day EMA

fib1618: but boy...that's a weak close no matter how you cut it

fib1618: although being up 27 points ain't half bad if your scalping

fib1618: moving to the SPX price chart first

fib1618: and we see that we closed right ON the 200 day EMA today

fib1618: after breaking below it last week

fib1618: we also found exact resistance at the 50 day EMA today(like magic)

fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO

fib1618: and we'll note that we didn't close below the November lows last week

fib1618: and as we known for a while now

fib1618: unless we see a new low there

fib1618: the mid November price lows will continue to hold

fib1618: with any move back above the beginning of December highs, securing the challenge of these same lows as being successful

fib1618: at least for now

fib1618: lots of Hammer Sticks on Monday

rite01: yes

fib1618: but we still need to see the MCO's move back above their zero lines in order for these reversal points to be confirmed

fib1618: otherwise...it's more than likely that much of this was short covering

fib1618: and that a more decisive break to the downside is still waiting...lurking...behind the scenes

fib1618: like we saw with the NDX

fib1618: looks like the top 100 stocks in the SPX, the OEX, also showed quite of bit of support today

fib1618: probably coming (and I'm guessing) from the two areas that have been a drag so far...energy and financials

fib1618: still...with both Trend components still below their zero lines

thespookyone: correct

fib1618: this is not the time where one can say, with confidence, that the worse is over by any means

fib1618: (thought so)

fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO has now snapped back to a reading of -15

fib1618: so close to the zero line there

fib1618: while the Dow breadth MCSUM is just below its zero line with a -35

fib1618: and a simple snapback of the 10% component to the 5% complete

fib1618: so...we'll call the Dow neutral for now

fib1618: and looking for one side to take the baton

fib1618: with the slight edge going with the path of least resistance as the probable winner...the sellers

fib1618: the reflex rally on the MID hasn't had the same amplitude as the large caps

fib1618: and though the MID breadth MCO did bounce today above last week's blip zone

fib1618: it settled today with a reading of -50

fib1618: so we could have a day or pull back here as we're against natural resistance

fib1618: so far...we'll call this a simple snapback to or towards the previous November price lows

fib1618: with pretty much the same situation with the SML breadth MCO and MCSUM

fib1618: with difference being that the SML breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line as soon as tomorrow

fib1618: while the MID breadth MCSUM is still a couple of days away from reaching this zero line goal

fib1618: we'll also note that the market was helped on Friday by the SML MCSUM breaking below the mid November lows

fib1618: in breaking below these same price lows

fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO also bounced today

fib1618: but here again

fib1618: did not make it back above last week's high point

fib1618: so we remain vulnerable to another bear paw swiping away at prices near term

fib1618: so...

fib1618: we go a standard reflex rally today

fib1618: after the sellers couldn't maintain their downside control past mid afternoon on Monday

fib1618: this then begged the shorts to cover

fib1618: as they have now been conditioned to do so

fib1618: and now we're at another juncture where follow through by one side or the other will likely keep things moving in this same direction for the rest of the week

fib1618: one thing's for sure though

fib1618: prices will tend to become more erratic during this process

fib1618: so let's not jump to any bullish conclusions as yet

fib1618: especially if the TRIN readings are very low like they were on Monday

fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's

fib1618: and both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's also moved sharply higher today

fib1618: while the Composite wound up just slightly above natural resistance with a reading of -24

fib1618: the declining tops of November/December remains important for now

fib1618: for until we break above this area

fib1618: only then will the "heaviness" we've been feeling will be able to be relieved

fib1618: no help for the buyers with the NASDAQ volume MCO

fib1618: as its bounce today didn't make it above last week's high point

fib1618: and they sure don't want to see a sharp reversal from this point either

fib1618: like its breadth cousin

fib1618: the NDX volume MCO showed a bit more conviction today

fib1618: thought maybe the weakness in Apple was the reason

fib1618: but just looked at the chart

fib1618: and it's not looking good at allas we have EMA compression there

fib1618: and prices couldn't even close above yesterday's intraday highs

fib1618: we also see a nice bounce off just below the -75 level today in the SPX volume MCO

fib1618: soif the bulls can continue to hold the November lows

fib1618: that would be good news going into 2016

fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the OEX volume MCO also had a strong day today

fib1618: which is nice

fib1618: but if the MID and SML are not keeping up

fib1618: we're eventually going to roll over and move sharply lower again

fib1618: the Dow volume MCO is showing the same kind of strength as the breadth side showed

fib1618: with snapbacks fully complete with the Dow volume components

fib1618: the MID volume MCO found support right at the -50 level

fib1618: but it didn't have enough behind it today to move above last week's high point

fib1618: boy...the MID chart pattern is a real mess

fib1618: could be an irregular flat completion?

fib1618: just talking out loud...pay no mind

fib1618: nothing to show for the SML volume MCO

fib1618: as it settled just below last week's high point

fib1618: and unlike the breadth side of the fence

fib1618: the TM volume MCO did make it back above last week's highs...but just barely

fib1618: so...

fib1618: quite a mixed picture as we move into tomorrow's Fed decision

fib1618: it would appear that much of what we saw today was traders evening up a bit before the announcement

fib1618: and since I haven't heard anything to the contrary

fib1618: are using put insurance against any emotional surprises tomorrow

fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look

fib1618: the CVI's have moved too far, too fast

fib1618: the STVO's are a bit on the "oversold" side with the pointed exception of the NDX

fib1618: the VTO's as well

fib1618: market wants to get some relief here

fib1618: and will get it one way or the other it would seem

fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .71

fib1618: short covering

fib1618: Open 10 now neutral at .91

fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .71

fib1618: Open 10 at .90

fib1618: I see a trend here

fib1618: TM TRIN at .74

fib1618: Open 10 at .89

fib1618: so...

fib1618: we seem to have balance between buyers and sellers right now in several areas

fib1618: which is a bit troubling for the bulls since this was only after having a day and one half to get to this point

fib1618: so unless new, fresh buying comes in here and now

fib1618: a day or two or back and fill is likely

fib1618: maybe more

fib1618:

let me look around at sentiment and such

fib1618: which, BTW, the ISEE numbers have been showing a lot of put buying over the last couple of days

fib1618: until today where we had a 187 reading today

fib1618: let me double check that

thespookyone: wow

fib1618: yes, 187

fib1618: so not only did we see sharp short covering

fib1618: but the specs moved into calls

fib1618: I wouldn't touch a long here, that's for sure

fib1618: let me look around a bit

thespookyone: me either

fib1618: Mark's sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish this past weekend at 53%

fib1618: eyeballing the chart

fib1618: and it looks like the last several times it got that high we topped

fib1618: you can see it on DPMI 1300

fib1618: 10 day OEX P/C ratio is heavy on the put side

fib1618: Dow Transports are testing their August lows right now

fib1618: as an aside

fib1618: business here remains sluggish

fib1618: not finding too much suggesting that the decline is over

rite01: I understand it's hit or miss on business depending on where you are

fib1618: it would take quite a rally tomorrow to do this

fib1618: more hit than miss

fib1618: take the energy sector, as but one example

fib1618: how are home sales there Mike?

rite01: Still good believe it or not and if the FED

rite01: raising rates tomorrow it will get even better

rite01: for a short time

fib1618: sense of urgency

fib1618: gotta to build wealth someway

fib1618: anything else?

rite01: Does anyone think they will raise rates tomorrow?

fib1618: market is saying 93% chance of a rate hike

fib1618: the key will be in the statement

fib1618: and the lean is towards 1/4%

fib1618: anything higher, and the market...gosh...who really knows what the market will think

thespookyone: I think what matters most, is if they speak of a schedule of raising rates in the future, that could be trouble

fib1618: all we know for now is that the market is vulnerable to a surprise

fib1618: well...maybe not

fib1618: at least the market will have clarity

fib1618: and the market loves clarity

thespookyone: true, so I guess they won't be doing that LOL

fib1618: here's the thing

fib1618: gold has barely moved here

fib1618: which suggests a tightening to continue

rite01: Has the Fed ever been out in front with rate hikes like this

fib1618: the lack of liquidity that has been felt from gold to commodities is now making its appearance in equities

rite01: telling everyone in advance

fib1618: well...it was always assumed based on economic activity

fib1618: but we're not seeing that this time around

fib1618: it's being based on faulty employment data

fib1618: but they made a promise

fib1618: I guess they have to keep it

fib1618: because after this month

fib1618: it will be very difficult to raise rates during a Presidential election year

rite01: True

fib1618: one thing's for sure

fib1618: we will finally not have to guess anymore after tomorrow...(hopefully)

fib1618: it's going to take several weeks though before the underlying tone is anywhere near good to see a trending price structure to the upside

fib1618: so it's likely that the rest of the month will be weak

fib1618: choppyand volatile

fib1618: nice for day traders and scalpers

fib1618: not so nice for trend traders

rite01: up spooky's alley

fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else

fib1618: I'm going to take off

fib1618: everyone have a good night...sleep well

fib1618: and let's see what kind of fireworks we have in store for us tomorrow

fib1618: good night


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