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Posts: 4,422
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-15 15:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-15 15:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-15 16:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-15 16:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tap tap...can everyone hear me in the back?
2011-12-15 16:02:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, weak tape,  LOL
2011-12-15 16:02:58 [Message] gman -> Chat: I'm here!  Just have a few things going on right now
2011-12-15 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...good...just wanted to make sure...after all..I might say something interesting...who knows?
2011-12-15 16:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and get started
2011-12-15 16:03:44 [Message] gman -> Chat: lol lol
2011-12-15 16:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to an "oversold" reading of -73 yesterday
2011-12-15 16:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today to relieve that oscillator extreme
2011-12-15 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has also slowed the downside pace of the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM as it nears its -250 level
2011-12-15 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our now being in the window of December OPEX
2011-12-15 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really a hard call of how much influence this will have this time around
2011-12-15 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might continue to snapback to the zero line tomorrow as we continue to approach this natural area of MCSUM support
2011-12-15 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that proverbial thumb on the scale we get from the EU might have its own say
2011-12-15 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2011-12-15 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation that if anything damaging was going to would happen next week is still on the front burner
2011-12-15 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's continue to look around and see what the other breadth and volume measurements have to say
2011-12-15 16:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also showed a bounce today from minimally "oversold" levels
2011-12-15 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we surmised on Tuesday
2011-12-15 16:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still about two trading days away from having any chance of testing the key double support level of the MCSUM zero line
2011-12-15 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bulls will have their most important test since the March 2009 lows
2011-12-15 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2011-12-15 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is where our rising bottoms line also intersects
2011-12-15 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2011-12-15 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's bounce gave the 5% component the opportunity to snapback to or towards its zero line
2011-12-15 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since both the components and the MCO itself remain below their zero lines
2011-12-15 16:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to be on a short term sell signal
2011-12-15 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...tomorrows action is going to tell us a lot
2011-12-15 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can rally hard and strong during the day
2011-12-15 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will probably be enough information to look for some sort of pause at this double line of MCSUM support
2011-12-15 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...then that would suggest that with the volume MCSUM's having already triggered a Summation Failure
2011-12-15 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this power move by the sellers is going to catch up with the general market environment once the cap of OPEX is lifted
2011-12-15 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and next week should be rather weak
2011-12-15 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also had a small bounce today
2011-12-15 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but never really got to the kind of "oversold" levels that would suggest an extreme point in selling
2011-12-15 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely then
2011-12-15 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see more selling first before we'll see any kind of "keystone" placed in what should be the first piece of constructive evidence that a floor is being created for our anticipated price lows at the end of the month
2011-12-15 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also note that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now only a day away from testing the important -500 level
2011-12-15 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so Friday's trading should give us a heads up as to whether this level is going to hold or not
2011-12-15 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2011-12-15 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noting that this index had a really hard time holding its reflex highs at the open this morning
2011-12-15 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even closed flat to lower
2011-12-15 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't bode well for the bulls moving forward
2011-12-15 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also bounced off of highly "oversold" levels today
2011-12-15 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see this acceleration in selling here by the downside amplitude on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-15 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it seems to racing to the downside now
2011-12-15 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too...the -500 level should be tested tomorrow
2011-12-15 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we gap down and through this level
2011-12-15 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Monday is likely to be a rough day
2011-12-15 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what also makes this level important this time around
2011-12-15 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that this was the first area of consolidation back in early September
2011-12-15 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break below this level implies that we're likely to see a challenge of the August lows
2011-12-15 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if those lows are broken
2011-12-15 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then expect a decline to test the summer of 2010 lows at around the 1800 level
2011-12-15 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do see a weak market tomorrow breadth wise
2011-12-15 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the NDX price pattern simultaneously breaks its rising bottoms line at the 2175 level
2011-12-15 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a pick up in the downside momentum in taking out the November lows
2011-12-15 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are only 25 points below that
2011-12-15 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of that
2011-12-15 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the October lows would be next
2011-12-15 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the composite
2011-12-15 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NDX breadth MCSUM then takes out its August lows
2011-12-15 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those same price lows will go with it
2011-12-15 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that earlier target of 1800 will become our next target
2011-12-15 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being highly "oversold" yesterday
2011-12-15 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2011-12-15 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't enough to keep the SPX breadth MCSUM from crossing below its zero line
2011-12-15 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minus any near term attempt to stabilize at this levels
2011-12-15 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical objective here for the bears is for a test of the -250 level
2011-12-15 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have some important MCSUM pattern support
2011-12-15 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as that little double hump consolidation provided the necessary divergence for the October price lows
2011-12-15 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if that goes
2011-12-15 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so will those same price lows
2011-12-15 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected on Tuesday, the OEX breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +250 level
2011-12-15 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the next potential area of support now coming with a zero line test
2011-12-15 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to remember
2011-12-15 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that as bearish as the volume side might be right here
2011-12-15 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our having still having the OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM still on the positive side of neutral
2011-12-15 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might also be looking at some sort of wash out given that with this same Summation Failure shows that the buyers have all but given up on moving prices higher
2011-12-15 16:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could create a wash out point
2011-12-15 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2011-12-15 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX and the Dow are only a fraction of the total list of some 3300 stocks that trade on the NYSE alone
2011-12-15 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although its important not to trade blindly here
2011-12-15 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also important to understand the total context of a marketplace that is constantly being pushed and pulled all dependent on analyst opinions of something that we've never had to deal with before (debt crisis, etc.)
2011-12-15 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...everything is fine
2011-12-15 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next are scathing opinion pieces shouting imminent collapse
2011-12-15 16:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things that will help in really determining how "bad" things are
2011-12-15 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is all we have to do is look at the respective indices for that country
2011-12-15 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will know well in advance if something isn't going to work out
2011-12-15 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a general review of global ETF's is something we can do just so we can gain this kind of perspective
2011-12-15 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected on Tuesday
2011-12-15 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM gaped down and through the +500 level yesterday
2011-12-15 16:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our expectation there being for a full move all the way back to the zero line
2011-12-15 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be a bad thing here
2011-12-15 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to see either the OEX or Dow breadth MCSUM find initial support a their zero lines
2011-12-15 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce into a fishhook or ledge
2011-12-15 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then set off their own Summation Failure patterns when the rest of the market breadth MCSUM's are already below their zero lines
2011-12-15 16:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT would not be a good omen
2011-12-15 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being at the +413 level
2011-12-15 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going to be until the last week of December now before we'll likely see this set up
2011-12-15 16:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, we just fall apart next week
2011-12-15 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would accelerate that time line
2011-12-15 16:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...before I forget
2011-12-15 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was thinking our usual Tuesday/Thursday format for the next two weeks
2011-12-15 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does anyone have a problem with that because of holiday travel?
2011-12-15 16:38:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-12-15 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me know as we go along...if I get no answers, then we'll keep to our regular schedules
2011-12-15 16:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the charts
2011-12-15 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM showed a downside acceleration yesterday as it moved below its zero line
2011-12-15 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now attempting to slow this rate of descent
2011-12-15 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice
2011-12-15 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do see lower price lows here compared to the November bottom
2011-12-15 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this MCO can maintain its current divergence
2011-12-15 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would go a long way in helping with our idea of a possible bottom sometime at the beginning of the year
2011-12-15 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-12-15 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a whole of downside room for the MID breadth MCSUM to travel before it approaches its pattern support area at around the -700 level
2011-12-15 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a good shake out here would probably create some strong divergences on an intermediate term basis
2011-12-15 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we can take out the October 4th price lows in doing so
2011-12-15 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML price pattern continues to hang in there nicely
2011-12-15 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the SML breadth MCSUM is now testing its natural support level of the -250 level
2011-12-15 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either we see a continuation of the bulls trying to put in a bottom here tomorrow
2011-12-15 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely to just gap down and through this level without too much of a problem
2011-12-15 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be noted here
2011-12-15 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even though the market had a rough day yesterday
2011-12-15 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals hung in there nicely
2011-12-15 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing slightly above 2:1 negative
2011-12-15 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's quite a bit of strength given that we have Summation Failures going on with the volume MCSUM's
2011-12-15 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be careful here near term as not to be caught being (bearishly) complacent
2011-12-15 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2011-12-15 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we moved to "oversold" levels yesterday on the Open 10's
2011-12-15 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how they look later on
2011-12-15 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have an inside range day today on the TM
2011-12-15 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the way the TM breadth MCSUM had a hard time moving above its zero line earlier this week
2011-12-15 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking at this range day as more of a pause than I would be looking for an up close tomorrow
2011-12-15 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...I'm sure there's a lot of shorts and put buyers are crying "uncle" here with this months OPEX
2011-12-15 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market tends not to give these same speculators what they have these trades expire worthless
2011-12-15 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets go on and look at the sector breadth charts
2011-12-15 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have a classic Summation Failure trigger with the XLY breadth MCSUM
2011-12-15 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get out your cameras here because that's about as textbook of a SF that you're ever going to see
2011-12-15 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLY breadth MCSUM topping at around the +750 level
2011-12-15 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing little in the way of hesitation as it collapsed to the zero line
2011-12-15 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls attempted to re-initiate the uptrend
2011-12-15 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: failed just below the +250 level with a fishhook
2011-12-15 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're moving down and through the zero line while taking out the zero line bounce lows
2011-12-15 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next two - three trading days
2011-12-15 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the bulls come in with both guns blazing
2011-12-15 16:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a "crash like" event take place here
2011-12-15 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next support looks to be at the -250 level where we again have MCSUM pattern support
2011-12-15 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also was the point where we created our October lows
2011-12-15 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM continues to drip lower
2011-12-15 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to just below the +500 level today
2011-12-15 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further weakness here will tend to be with a great deal of conviction
2011-12-15 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will allow the price pattern to break to the downside as well
2011-12-15 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that we have now had a full snapback on the 10% component
2011-12-15 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's the bull's ball...4th down...and long
2011-12-15 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a Hail Mary pass might be needed though to get out this current hole
2011-12-15 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLE breadth MCO
2011-12-15 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a deeply "oversold" reading of -126
2011-12-15 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation when we're this low is for a bounce higher
2011-12-15 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the last couple of days of having this MCO at these extremes
2011-12-15 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which took place as the XLE breadth MCSUM powered down and through its zero line
2011-12-15 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a sector in which you want to be long in at this time
2011-12-15 16:58:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's one wide posting..
2011-12-15 16:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not likely that any short term bounce
2011-12-15 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is not likely to help prices in this same direction
2011-12-15 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...this is what were afraid of with this sector for the last couple of weeks
2011-12-15 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that little shelf at the +500 level?
2011-12-15 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it had that downward slant?
2011-12-15 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is not a good omen
2011-12-15 16:59:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-12-15 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our thinking was if there was going to be any chance of a bounce, it's probably going to come at the zero line
2011-12-15 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we even accelerated though that
2011-12-15 17:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Crude was down $5.00 yesterday
2011-12-15 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Gold was down like $80 which took the prize as the more important news item of the day
2011-12-15 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tapping from the "savings account" in which gold represents is not a good thing for equity prices later on
2011-12-15 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll have to take a look at gold over the weekend and see what the likely forecast might be now
2011-12-15 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's a concern for me
2011-12-15 17:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that with interest rates as low as they are
2011-12-15 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the creation of money is still hitting the financial markets at a pace never seen before
2011-12-15 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this excess in money is what propels gold prices higher
2011-12-15 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this is the case
2011-12-15 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gold prices are slamming lower
2011-12-15 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger worry is that there are very large holders who are selling here just so they can "stabilize" their portfolios
2011-12-15 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tom McClellan had a great observation about gold lease rates being at all time highs here
2011-12-15 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm sure that has a lot to do with the sharp sell off as well
2011-12-15 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the portfolios I'm referring to may not be banks and other large arbitrage accounts
2011-12-15 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be those of countries
2011-12-15 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in trying to stabilize a problem that may not be able to be stabilized
2011-12-15 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-12-15 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I learned long ago to just follow money
2011-12-15 17:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answers will come later on
2011-12-15 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM is now about 2 trading days away from testing its zero line
2011-12-15 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2011-12-15 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that gap you see on Wednesday was this MCSUM moving below its rising bottoms line
2011-12-15 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM also moved below its zero line yesterday
2011-12-15 17:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope you're all noticing how the MCSUM has this uncanny ability to know just where these lines of support or resistance are with these larger than usual gaps we see
2011-12-15 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here with the XLV MCSUM is was right at the zero line
2011-12-15 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF at its rising bottoms line
2011-12-15 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why these specific technical tools provide so much analytical value
2011-12-15 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is this consistency where we're able to use this information in our daily trading
2011-12-15 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down and through (with a larger than normal gap) with the XLI breadth MCSUM as well
2011-12-15 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next area of likely support to come, again, at the -250 level
2011-12-15 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM is just above its zero line now
2011-12-15 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there's consistency here
2011-12-15 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a larger than normal gap tomorrow as we move down and through the zero line
2011-12-15 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my "spidey sense" is still tingling here
2011-12-15 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small bounce higher on the XLK breadth MCO
2011-12-15 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to move down and through the -500 level on the XLK breadth MCSUM as soon as tomorrow
2011-12-15 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU data is hanging in there like a champ
2011-12-15 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a simple case of moving into a sector that has always been known as that of being safe while giving a nice return while you wait
2011-12-15 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-12-15 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a do or die moment for the market tomorrow
2011-12-15 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely if we do swoon on Friday
2011-12-15 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be something that comes out of Europe or at least something news related
2011-12-15 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise
2011-12-15 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might just chop into the end of the day and finally rid ourselves of a lot of "worthless" excess
2011-12-15 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-12-15 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCSUM moved below its previous lows today
2011-12-15 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market for common stocks is now vulnerable to any bad news that might be out there
2011-12-15 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite volume MCSUM
2011-12-15 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we now have a confirmed Summation Failure trigger
2011-12-15 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the gaps expanded when we took out the prior lows yesterday
2011-12-15 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now down and through the zero line today while the NYSE volume MCO remains below the -50 level which is deemed as being minimally "oversold"
2011-12-15 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further weakness here could have a cascading effect
2011-12-15 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a "crash like" event could happen
2011-12-15 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be enough of an event to move the NYA index 300 points lower to challenge the Black Friday lows?
2011-12-15 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer to that is...not likely
2011-12-15 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only because of where the NYSE breadth MCSUM is at this time
2011-12-15 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at a reading of least a couple of days before we test that zero line
2011-12-15 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if that fails to hold
2011-12-15 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch out
2011-12-15 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for next week
2011-12-15 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM continues to move sharply lower here
2011-12-15 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the baby blip higher today in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-12-15 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't seem that there is many in the way of takers here on the buy side
2011-12-15 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely that we're not going to see MCSUM pattern support at around the -400 level
2011-12-15 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, is our October low point
2011-12-15 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's seems to be happening here
2011-12-15 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the internals are showing a higher degree of weakness than where prices should be to compliment this same weakness
2011-12-15 17:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this could be because of the many shorts and put buyers just below current levels from tomorrow's OPEX
2011-12-15 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is keeping prices from unwinding naturally
2011-12-15 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the problem
2011-12-15 17:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know quickly enough on Monday
2011-12-15 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing keeping things from falling apart is that we now have "oversold" Open 10's as of yesterday
2011-12-15 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this acts as a natural floor for the bulls
2011-12-15 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just throwing some ideas out there...but the proof is in the charts
2011-12-15 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of extreme weakness with the NDX volume data
2011-12-15 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with barely a dent in the short term trend by today's pause
2011-12-15 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can now see the "waterfall" action we talked about last week as our anticipation based on the way the NDX breadth MCSUM was sliding lower
2011-12-15 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that this MCSUM is now testing its October lows
2011-12-15 17:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..if this level should break
2011-12-15 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then opens the door wide that we're not likely to see a tradable price low until we challenge those same price lows
2011-12-15 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM also moved below its zero line today
2011-12-15 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so both the SPX breadth and volume MCSUM's are tracking each other here
2011-12-15 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news for traders is that this then lends itself to trend development
2011-12-15 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the days of choppy action are probably coming to an end
2011-12-15 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-15 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a Summation Failure trigger here
2011-12-15 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a full on defensive position is highly warranted at this time
2011-12-15 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM is still above its zero line
2011-12-15 17:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but could move down and through it as soon as tomorrow
2011-12-15 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2011-12-15 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should come one of those large gaps showing the strength of the bears
2011-12-15 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO bounced higher off its -50 level today
2011-12-15 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow volume MCSUM at a reading of +100
2011-12-15 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market comes apart tomorrow
2011-12-15 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be testing this MCSUM zero line at the close
2011-12-15 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but realistically
2011-12-15 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably not going to see that until Monday
2011-12-15 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could happen given that we're only dealing with 30 stocks
2011-12-15 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCSUM moved down and through the -250 level today
2011-12-15 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given its previous zero line resistance
2011-12-15 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's most likely going to continue to move towards the next level of possible support at the -500 level
2011-12-15 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCSUM moved to lower lows on Wednesday
2011-12-15 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will now attempt to find -250 support
2011-12-15 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that breaks
2011-12-15 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the -500 level which should a better chance in doing so
2011-12-15 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the total market volume MCSUM continues to streak lower
2011-12-15 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where its more than likely that we're going to go down to the -500 level before we see any kind of attempt to stabilize there
2011-12-15 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-15 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of Summation Failures have now been triggered
2011-12-15 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not more than 2 or 3 trading days away from having all of the breadth MCSUM's joining their volume cousins in negative territory
2011-12-15 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once breadth of market moves to negative
2011-12-15 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then be much easier for prices to move lower
2011-12-15 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in fact...will likely TREND lower
2011-12-15 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-12-15 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it shouldn't take more than a couple of more weeks before we might see the beginnings of a foundation being created
2011-12-15 17:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we start breaking more and more of the October lows in all of the MCSUM's
2011-12-15 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then extend the time element out for a couple more months before we would be likely to see a tradable low
2011-12-15 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's were climactic yesterday...and we got our bounce today
2011-12-15 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (kind of)
2011-12-15 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's were also "oversold" yesterday
2011-12-15 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not much in the way of a bounce from those
2011-12-15 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain stubbornly neutral at this time
2011-12-15 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we can get this indicator to "oversold"
2011-12-15 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that will see more than a 1 or 2 day counter trends attempts by the bulls before the bears once again take control
2011-12-15 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .95
2011-12-15 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2011-12-15 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-12-15 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.48
2011-12-15 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now highly "oversold" at 1.24
2011-12-15 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.29
2011-12-15 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.22
2011-12-15 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2011-12-15 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-12-15 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Open 10's get this high
2011-12-15 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's difficult for the bears to keep the pressure on (basketball in the deep in the pool analogy)
2011-12-15 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the difference here
2011-12-15 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have both the MCO and the MCSUM's moving with the bears here
2011-12-15 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to their moving counter to these same washed out numbers which tend to buoy prices and upside reversals can then take place
2011-12-15 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line for now is
2011-12-15 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market can get by with no real damage by Tuesday of next week
2011-12-15 17:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in the beginning stages of building our elusive texture for a foundational bottom
2011-12-15 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2011-12-15 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can't hold these same levels here...the market will become extremely dangerous to the longs
2011-12-15 17:46:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what would you put the odds of no real damage at?
2011-12-15 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been trying to think of an answer to that as I was writing it
2011-12-15 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see that the MCSUM's continue to hold in and around these levels
2011-12-15 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would suggest no real damage
2011-12-15 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how will we know this?
2011-12-15 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by watching intraday breadth and volume plurality
2011-12-15 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-12-15 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on Wednesday we were at 2:1 negative on breadth pretty much the whole day
2011-12-15 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market was going to move hard down
2011-12-15 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that plurality would had been much higher
2011-12-15 17:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here is whether or not OPEX is putting its thumb on the scale or not
2011-12-15 17:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger than normal gaps below important lines of support, however, suggest that market weakness is there
2011-12-15 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's having trouble showing it
2011-12-15 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its sort of like when you're coming down with a cold
2011-12-15 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you start to get real achy and you feel feverish
2011-12-15 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the outside you haven't as yet looked like your sick
2011-12-15 17:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the illness then hits you
2011-12-15 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then others can see you for what you really are
2011-12-15 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we have here
2011-12-15 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a very sick market
2011-12-15 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at first glance it looks as though it's OK
2011-12-15 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we've been talking about for weeks here
2011-12-15 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's just watch breadth plurality
2011-12-15 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it continues to worsen
2011-12-15 17:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually prices are going to have to fill that void
2011-12-15 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer they try to keep the illness away by taking cold tables or drinking tea
2011-12-15 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder the illness eventually hits
2011-12-15 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just not a conspiracy kind of guy
2011-12-15 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less one of direct manipulation
2011-12-15 17:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I got to tell you
2011-12-15 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way we rallied in October
2011-12-15 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the suddenness of how we topped later on
2011-12-15 17:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smacks of manipulation
2011-12-15 17:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we saw with currency interventions back in the 1980's
2011-12-15 17:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like deja vu all over again
2011-12-15 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-12-15 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have plenty of ammunition on their side here
2011-12-15 17:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up the bulls to regain control of the ball either by fumble or interception
2011-12-15 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and except with the XLE and the XLF
2011-12-15 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're just not seeing that kind of strength here
2011-12-15 17:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe because of breadth being still relatively positive on a trending basis
2011-12-15 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be our answer
2011-12-15 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's it
2011-12-15 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then once we move below the zero line
2011-12-15 17:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially with the NYSE breadth MCSUM and its double support
2011-12-15 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that breaks
2011-12-15 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be sort like releasing water from a dam
2011-12-15 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or spending the night driving the "porcelain bus" once the your cold/flu takes over your body
2011-12-15 17:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-12-15 17:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full defensive posture is still be maintained at this time
2011-12-15 17:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-15 17:57:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-12-15 17:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've watching the bear funds in the last two days
2011-12-15 17:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they all seem to be structurally fine and trending to the upside
2011-12-15 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and boy...there sure is a whole lot of bear funds these days
2011-12-15 17:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-12-15 17:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the US markets cue is being taken from how Europe is doing
2011-12-15 17:59:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Merkel reminds me of the George Bush "mission accomplished" moment here
2011-12-15 18:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't expect it be any different over the next several days
2011-12-15 18:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a difficult situation
2011-12-15 18:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: She actually kind of pulled back on that yesterday
2011-12-15 18:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem there
2011-12-15 18:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is too much history
2011-12-15 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much cultural differences
2011-12-15 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they all speak different languages
2011-12-15 18:01:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and no will to print
2011-12-15 18:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's another good point
2011-12-15 18:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike here in the states where you have a single Treasury and Federal Reserve that can co-ordinate their efforts, the Europeans don't have anything like that
2011-12-15 18:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, realistically, they can't save themselves like we did here in 2008
2011-12-15 18:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think that's what bothers most right now
2011-12-15 18:03:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, and the situation seems quite similar + sovereign problems
2011-12-15 18:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...whatever happens, happens
2011-12-15 18:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we are positioned correctly, that's all that matters
2011-12-15 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: borders, language and culture...they all work against them
2011-12-15 18:04:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they let us trade both ways....we'll be fine
2011-12-15 18:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here in the states...there are no walls between states
2011-12-15 18:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't need a passport
2011-12-15 18:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one will ever be like this country
2011-12-15 18:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: couldn't be done
2011-12-15 18:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2011-12-15 18:04:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: maybe we should give them Bernanke?
2011-12-15 18:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-12-15 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a gift?
2011-12-15 18:05:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: coal
2011-12-15 18:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like giving back to France for the Statue of Liberty?
2011-12-15 18:05:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-12-15 18:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Ben is fine
2011-12-15 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a tough job
2011-12-15 18:05:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is
2011-12-15 18:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone who complains never has a alternate plan
2011-12-15 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-12-15 18:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not his fault
2011-12-15 18:06:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-12-15 18:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2011-12-15 18:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-15 18:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-12-15 18:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday
2011-12-15 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-12-15 18:06:23 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks

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