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Posts: 4,899
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-13 15:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-13 15:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-13 16:00:13 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi Dave
2011-12-13 16:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooo....
2011-12-13 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what shall we talk about today?
2011-12-13 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-13 16:03:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you teach big risk taking, looking at hikers post, LOL
2011-12-13 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...I'm very concerned here
2011-12-13 16:03:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto!
2011-12-13 16:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...that's me...big risk taker Fib
2011-12-13 16:03:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no place to front run, as I commented there
2011-12-13 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had all the markings of the beginning of a Summation Failure
2011-12-13 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large intraday outside range day
2011-12-13 16:04:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's what I saw as well
2011-12-13 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as I kept ticking it off on the Facebook page
2011-12-13 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were getting sell after sell after 15:30 today
2011-12-13 16:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole rhythm changed
2011-12-13 16:05:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Hiker seemed to think it not possible-dangerous
2011-12-13 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone is entitled
2011-12-13 16:05:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, but there is risk, then there is RISK
2011-12-13 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...he's not in the chat room
2011-12-13 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so he doesn't know the whole story
2011-12-13 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but he's good at his stops
2011-12-13 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't worry about him
2011-12-13 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..if there's no questions
2011-12-13 16:06:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, if you go through them at night-they can expand-my only concern
2011-12-13 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and lets see if there's any red flag warnings
2011-12-13 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a change of pace
2011-12-13 16:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the volume McClellan's today as they have the most to lose here
2011-12-13 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing off its zero line
2011-12-13 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then failing to make new highs
2011-12-13 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO has now moved sharply to the downside
2011-12-13 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now caused a change in the direction of the CO NYSE volume MCSUM from up to down
2011-12-13 16:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we rest just above the zero line
2011-12-13 16:09:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will we apply the same levels here, visa-vie the summation?
2011-12-13 16:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the data is consistent
2011-12-13 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the application is different
2011-12-13 16:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with breadth
2011-12-13 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we work with the amount of capital that is available for investment
2011-12-13 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with volume
2011-12-13 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we work on the direction this same capital will likely push prices
2011-12-13 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-12-13 16:10:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks
2011-12-13 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a boat on a lake
2011-12-13 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the lake isn't filled, the boat will hit dry land
2011-12-13 16:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the lake is filled
2011-12-13 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the boat doesn't have a steering wheel or an engine to push it
2011-12-13 16:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you will tend to go in circles or aimlessly about
2011-12-13 16:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or, in this specific case, be vulnerable to something not seen and possibly capsize
2011-12-13 16:11:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when I want a rally, I like volume to lead-if I wanted summation failure-would I also prefer volume to lead?
2011-12-13 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is our problem here
2011-12-13 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not necessarily
2011-12-13 16:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "failure" is where buyers were not able to take what capital there was to use and didn't apply it with enough conviction to drive prices away from the bear market default
2011-12-13 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is how widespread liquidity reaches
2011-12-13 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume of market pushes prices on this same lake of liquidity
2011-12-13 16:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth holds up prices
2011-12-13 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is then able to push prices with this same level of capital available
2011-12-13 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this point
2011-12-13 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is still plenty of liquidity out there
2011-12-13 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it isn't being used effectively to move the boat forward
2011-12-13 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a Summation Failure here will drive prices lower
2011-12-13 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not on a broad base basis (yet)
2011-12-13 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be with those that are more "weighted" with the indexes
2011-12-13 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue to look at the data
2011-12-13 16:15:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great explanation, this doesn't happen often-so it's a great place for me to improve my knowledge
2011-12-13 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2011-12-13 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes, a summation failure doesn't always happen on the volume side of the equation
2011-12-13 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does have the same potential for just as much destruction once its triggered
2011-12-13 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-12-13 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CO NYSE volume MCSUM now just above its zero line
2011-12-13 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the buyers come back in with a lot of momentum tomorrow
2011-12-13 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then be moving down and through the zero line
2011-12-13 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens
2011-12-13 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the lack of buyers trying to push the ongoing trend higher and they failure to do so
2011-12-13 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sellers will start to pick up dramatically as they start to overtake the buyers
2011-12-13 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the actual "trigger" comes with the new lows in the MCSUM
2011-12-13 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's when a "crash like" event will have its best chance of happening as we also move down and through the zero line
2011-12-13 16:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know about the common stocks is that this MCSUM moved below its zero line before moving higher
2011-12-13 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest a higher degree of implied weakness in this group of issues
2011-12-13 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving to the composite
2011-12-13 16:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that being able to hold up above this same MCSUM zero line
2011-12-13 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has been the interest rate sensitive issues that were leading the charge of the last reflex rally from the Black Friday lows
2011-12-13 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now notice the difference of the position here on the NYSE volume MCSUM compared with the CO
2011-12-13 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that not only are we about to go down and through the zero line
2011-12-13 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we will also take out the previous lows simultaneously when we do
2011-12-13 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT"S what causes the "crash like " event to take place
2011-12-13 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as traders "recognize" something that tends to be root cause of this same hesitancy by the bulls to re-initiate the previous rally
2011-12-13 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the "crash like" event happens because
2011-12-13 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can only get so many people through a revolving door when someone just yelled out "fire"
2011-12-13 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they need to get out any way they can
2011-12-13 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...minus any snapback attempt tomorrow
2011-12-13 16:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can now happen at any time over the next couple of days
2011-12-13 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was a "caution" is now being classified as a "warning"
2011-12-13 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully all long positions by now have been closed
2011-12-13 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if one doesn't want or can't short the market
2011-12-13 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are in cash watching
2011-12-13 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNEW this to be a very dangerous situation developing for several weeks now
2011-12-13 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there was the thought that maybe the bulls would hold things up until after OPEX
2011-12-13 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm not so sure now
2011-12-13 16:25:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: as per your comment on heavily weighted-Amazon got taken apart today
2011-12-13 16:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh really? how bad?
2011-12-13 16:25:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: almost 5 percent
2011-12-13 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw that Best Buy was down hard as well
2011-12-13 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more heavily weighted issues are going to be the most vulnerable here
2011-12-13 16:26:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great to know-THANKS!
2011-12-13 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reversal bar is pretty classic prior to the failure itself
2011-12-13 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls are completely exhausted
2011-12-13 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there early indications of this too
2011-12-13 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way we opened after a day of hard down
2011-12-13 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...the market couldn't hold the gains late morning
2011-12-13 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tried again going into the FED announcement
2011-12-13 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and again failed to move to higher highs
2011-12-13 16:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we started to fall apart
2011-12-13 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the last of the unwilling buyers were pretty much done
2011-12-13 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're already below the zero line
2011-12-13 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not from what one would call a classic Summation Failure pattern
2011-12-13 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about last week
2011-12-13 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of not being able to move away from the zero line here screamed weakness by the bulls
2011-12-13 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not at all surprising that we saw little in the way of ANY follow through after the EU "announcement"
2011-12-13 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2011-12-13 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX volume MCO not being able to move to lower lows with this same break
2011-12-13 16:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or maybe it did
2011-12-13 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to tell is that close
2011-12-13 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, we'll err on the side of optimism there
2011-12-13 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-12-13 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers are very much in control now with this index
2011-12-13 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Summation Failure warning now with the SPX volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here it looks like it won't be before Thursday where we might see this formation trigger
2011-12-13 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that Dec futures go off the board at the close of Thursday
2011-12-13 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving only options open for Friday
2011-12-13 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCO continued lower today after breaking below the zero line on Monday
2011-12-13 16:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we also have a change in direction on the the OEX volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here too
2011-12-13 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't see a trigger until maybe Friday
2011-12-13 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the Dow volume data
2011-12-13 16:35:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "bad news" over the weekend?
2011-12-13 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the close up of the Dow components
2011-12-13 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the 5% could bounce off zero line support as soon as tomorrow
2011-12-13 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know when or what the news will be
2011-12-13 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or whether there will be anything given as an excuse for that matter
2011-12-13 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we really know here is that market internals are screaming caution now
2011-12-13 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if you don't "get" this McClellan stuff
2011-12-13 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just the fact that we rallied from a deeply "oversold" level
2011-12-13 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we couldn't even move back above the reaction highs that came before the collapse should get your "spidey sense" tingling
2011-12-13 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be another "realization" that the EU is in more trouble than it suggests
2011-12-13 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it can be really anything
2011-12-13 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever the problem is
2011-12-13 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bad news will only accentuate the problem
2011-12-13 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again
2011-12-13 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we found resistance at the zero line
2011-12-13 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are starting to unwind to the downside
2011-12-13 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be duly noted
2011-12-13 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MID was the only one of the indexes that gave a SAR sell signal today in the last hour
2011-12-13 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had many in that last hour
2011-12-13 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SOX
2011-12-13 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: energy
2011-12-13 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: materials
2011-12-13 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to think
2011-12-13 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the TW moment
2011-12-13 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EFA
2011-12-13 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Euro really took it on the chin
2011-12-13 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home builders
2011-12-13 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: healthcare
2011-12-13 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the leadership of gold of late
2011-12-13 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a pretty picture here with the volume structure looking as weak as it is
2011-12-13 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the beginning of end of year selling
2011-12-13 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just could be
2011-12-13 16:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after reading the FED statement
2011-12-13 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and their saying that they don't think that they will need to raise interest rates now until the summer of 2013!
2011-12-13 16:44:53 [Message] manuj -> Chat: could you please explain - how you measure the time distance for triggers ?
2011-12-13 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of comparisons
2011-12-13 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each turn in an oscillator is a comparison point for future considerations
2011-12-13 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a short term oscillator
2011-12-13 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're dealing with the same kind of time frame in which it measures
2011-12-13 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the MCO...that's about 4-6 weeks
2011-12-13 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the MCSUM...that's about 6-12 weeks
2011-12-13 16:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher or lower an oscillator registers
2011-12-13 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer it takes to work off that same excess
2011-12-13 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I keep referring to rhythm here
2011-12-13 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by how long it takes a trend to move from one point to the next
2011-12-13 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that
2011-12-13 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market will tend to lead price by about 1-2 market days
2011-12-13 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend can then be extended to get a general idea of how long it will take based on past "oscillations"
2011-12-13 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cycles...go under this kind of criteria
2011-12-13 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can extend or compact all depending on the stimulus that affecting it
2011-12-13 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm probably not answering your question, am I?
2011-12-13 16:49:56 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so the estimate of thu or fri for the trigger is from past data?
2011-12-13 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-12-13 16:50:10 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2011-12-13 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's an approximation with all things being equal
2011-12-13 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2011-12-13 16:50:24 [Message] manuj -> Chat: i will go over past chats again
2011-12-13 16:50:27 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks
2011-12-13 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there are only so many hours in a trading day
2011-12-13 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a great question
2011-12-13 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes though I can't think of a proxy from which to use to give a clean example
2011-12-13 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where your gut has something to do with too
2011-12-13 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the rally from the Black Friday lows as an example
2011-12-13 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were all in agreement that we were highly "oversold" at that time
2011-12-13 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so
2011-12-13 16:51:58 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yes - that is what i figured. but i thought i will ask if there was some other geometric method :-)
2011-12-13 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with our Tuesday meeting
2011-12-13 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were to expect a reflex to take place at the earliest by Wednesday's close
2011-12-13 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got some buoyancy then
2011-12-13 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we dragged things out on Friday's shortened day
2011-12-13 16:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was something we also discussed with the lack of action because of the holiday
2011-12-13 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then Monday came
2011-12-13 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up we went...
2011-12-13 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that following Tuesday
2011-12-13 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about in here how it was up to the bulls at that point to "belly up..right here, and right now" or they were going to lose any benefit of this same reflex action
2011-12-13 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday came
2011-12-13 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up we went for a full zero line snapback on the MCO on the "announcement"
2011-12-13 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when ever we have such a dramatic move in such a short amount of time
2011-12-13 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to expect that even if the engines are shut down, the momentum of the move will still keep prices from reversing right away
2011-12-13 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we gave it...what?...a week last week?
2011-12-13 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2011-12-13 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this was just a "reasonable expectation"
2011-12-13 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we know that markets don't do "too far, too fast" without some sort of backing and filling first
2011-12-13 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the price pattern of the last week
2011-12-13 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an ordinary rounding top
2011-12-13 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2011-12-13 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't enough fresh buying  to turn the trend (the MCO) around...that being going above the early November highs
2011-12-13 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to zero for a test
2011-12-13 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another attempt by the bulls to add on the excitement of the "announcement"
2011-12-13 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slip...slide..and exhaustion
2011-12-13 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we reverse
2011-12-13 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the space shuttle analogy is the very best one I can share with you folks that makes the most amount of sense when we're dealing with market internals
2011-12-13 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the pressure of isn't maintained
2011-12-13 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't achieve 'escape velocity'
2011-12-13 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and without that
2011-12-13 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once you run out of momentum
2011-12-13 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gravity will return the vehicle back to earth
2011-12-13 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bear market default
2011-12-13 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market ALWAYS wants to move lower
2011-12-13 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can't help itself
2011-12-13 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order to break free of this default
2011-12-13 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need strength
2011-12-13 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need energy to do so
2011-12-13 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without just sag with the default
2011-12-13 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this specific case
2011-12-13 17:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only have we run out of momentum
2011-12-13 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's absolutely no new fuel for more miles than you can travel
2011-12-13 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've got a new one
2011-12-13 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of a large magnet
2011-12-13 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that your car is still made with steel
2011-12-13 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can fight the force of the magnet only if you have the fuel and the power to do so
2011-12-13 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you lose one or both...the magnet pulls you back
2011-12-13 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're within range of maximum pull of the magnet
2011-12-13 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once you lose either the power or the will snapback with a great amount of velocity
2011-12-13 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what is happening here with the Summation Failure patterns
2011-12-13 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've gone way off on a tangent there...back to the charts
2011-12-13 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too you see that we failed to snapback to the zero line
2011-12-13 17:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so the path of "least resistance" has an opportunity to take a better hold of the pattern
2011-12-13 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we're likely to see a pick up in selling
2011-12-13 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the TM volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see the lack of buying after the zero line bounce
2011-12-13 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we've gone down and through the zero line
2011-12-13 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a trigger there
2011-12-13 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be respected for what it implies
2011-12-13 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-13 17:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now on a Summation Failure alert and warning
2011-12-13 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the moment
2011-12-13 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's just move on the breadth data and see how those charts are looking
2011-12-13 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM also found resistance at its zero line
2011-12-13 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now moving sharply to the downside
2011-12-13 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is at a minimal "oversold" level
2011-12-13 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see some sort of bounce there tomorrow
2011-12-13 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-12-13 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now becomes a fairly important time
2011-12-13 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if they can't find anyone to help out their cause
2011-12-13 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the selling will start to accelerate given the position of the volume MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we note that we are still well above the zero line
2011-12-13 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where it will likely take 3 trading days before we'll see a zero line test
2011-12-13 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember that this same MCSUM zero line is where the rising bottoms line connecting the August and October lows intersect
2011-12-13 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a simultaneous break there could give us quite a downside jolt in market prices
2011-12-13 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to fall off its ledge pattern to the downside
2011-12-13 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the next level of potential support is seen around the -500 level
2011-12-13 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the same structure with the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that with today's move lower that the MCSUM moved down and through the zero line
2011-12-13 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also notice that we broke below the prior lows today on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making today's reversal bar that much more ominous
2011-12-13 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is happening after failing to move back above the +500 level
2011-12-13 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a run all the way back down to the zero line here is a reasonable expectation
2011-12-13 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is still above its +500 level
2011-12-13 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will move below it as soon as tomorrow
2011-12-13 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an important consideration here
2011-12-13 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow showing the strongest degree of money flow
2011-12-13 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the Dow will tend to hide the real problems going on any further triggers in the volume MCSUM's
2011-12-13 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...on the other hand
2011-12-13 17:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could accelerate in an effort to catch up to the broader weakness
2011-12-13 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that a great majority of OPEX is more closely related to large caps and their indices
2011-12-13 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see the mid and small caps, as well as, the secondaries start to sell off hard here
2011-12-13 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX and Dow show a "stiff upper lip" in the face of adversity
2011-12-13 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-12-13 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if things remain consistent
2011-12-13 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week may not look too pretty
2011-12-13 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the whole market will likely be down and through all of their MCSUM zero lines
2011-12-13 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...interesting
2011-12-13 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM moved below its zero line today
2011-12-13 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also got a SAR sell signal as well
2011-12-13 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern itself looking very weak here
2011-12-13 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows today in the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-12-13 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCO also took out blip support today as well
2011-12-13 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM also found upside resistance at its zero line
2011-12-13 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now moving with the path of least resistance to the downside
2011-12-13 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if anything else
2011-12-13 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reflex rally from the Black Friday lows is now complete
2011-12-13 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the bulls really put up a solid wall of defense here
2011-12-13 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely going to move to our expected downside targets of the August lows with this particular price pattern sequence
2011-12-13 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our eyes focused on the lows from last summer
2011-12-13 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the McClellan's
2011-12-13 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want to see if we can build divergence with these same summer lows
2011-12-13 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we see a decrease in acceleration on any further weakness from this juncture
2011-12-13 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the odds of a successful bottom being created
2011-12-13 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our timing, of course, was somewhere around the end of this month for this same challenge and possible divergence to take place
2011-12-13 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this doesn't seem to have changed at this time
2011-12-13 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now minimally "climatic"
2011-12-13 17:33:45 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Oct low was lower than August in some of the indexes - are we testing the August or Oct.
2011-12-13 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see a change in direction in the next two trading days
2011-12-13 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good question
2011-12-13 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it depends on each index
2011-12-13 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I would do
2011-12-13 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is watch the NYA
2011-12-13 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the one that will tell the tale since it did test the summer lows of 2010 with last summer's decline
2011-12-13 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that breaks
2011-12-13 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the rest should follow
2011-12-13 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to watch here is the NYAD line
2011-12-13 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it breaks below both its summer lows, and the Tsunami lows, then new downside targets will likely to be given and reached
2011-12-13 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be all the way back to the 2009 lows
2011-12-13 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-12-13 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is STILL not a problem here
2011-12-13 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confidence IS
2011-12-13 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this lack of confidence snowballs into something larger
2011-12-13 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than new lower price targets will be generated
2011-12-13 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what they say or do at the FED
2011-12-13 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now minimally "oversold"
2011-12-13 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that could keep things a float a little longer
2011-12-13 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are pretty much neutral, except the Dow which is minimally "overbought"
2011-12-13 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.84
2011-12-13 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now close to neutral at .88
2011-12-13 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.15
2011-12-13 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 also neural at .89
2011-12-13 17:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.48
2011-12-13 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91 - neutral
2011-12-13 17:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the good news here
2011-12-13 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market has been able to work off its "oversold" readings on the Open 10 rather quickly
2011-12-13 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also took a 5.00 and a 4.00 TRIN reading to do so
2011-12-13 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that
2011-12-13 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN's have been rather low of late
2011-12-13 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once those high number drop off
2011-12-13 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back we go north again unless we get more selling here
2011-12-13 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-12-13 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean we should get excited just because we're at neutral now
2011-12-13 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we know that it's taken Open 10 readings of more than 1.15 to even show a tradable bottom
2011-12-13 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls still have a lot of work in front of them
2011-12-13 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any further weakness here will be the biggest challenge for the longer term structure of the US price pattern structure going over many decades and not just years
2011-12-13 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our worries of a higher dollar seem to be the real problem here
2011-12-13 17:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TED Spread continues to move higher and higher and higher
2011-12-13 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is not a condition that instills investor confidence
2011-12-13 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as always...keep an eye on breadth plurality now
2011-12-13 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-12-13 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the down over up volume as well
2011-12-13 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today it was 4:1 negative
2011-12-13 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, 80% of stocks traded today were on down volume
2011-12-13 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least that's what I saw just after the close
2011-12-13 17:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...a full defensive position towards the markets remains the markets suggestion
2011-12-13 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s kind of screaming it at the top of its lungs now
2011-12-13 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be an interesting week coming up
2011-12-13 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-12-13 17:47:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2011-12-13 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last thing here
2011-12-13 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during times of flux
2011-12-13 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is even more important that you remain disciplined and have a trading plan before any execution of a trade
2011-12-13 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we can get emotionally involved so quickly...especially on hard declines
2011-12-13 17:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then have visions of dollar signs dancing in our heads
2011-12-13 17:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain focused
2011-12-13 17:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a goal going in
2011-12-13 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you achieve it
2011-12-13 17:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close and move on
2011-12-13 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will always be another trade
2011-12-13 17:49:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very well said!
2011-12-13 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..with that
2011-12-13 17:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-13 17:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-12-13 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what we have to work with on Thursday
2011-12-13 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-12-13 17:49:49 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks

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