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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2013-12-12 16:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-12-12 16:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-12-12 16:01:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thx. Closed a few positions today
2013-12-12 16:01:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2013-12-12 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got stopped out?
2013-12-12 16:03:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hit targets
2013-12-12 16:03:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: weekly's
2013-12-12 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great!
2013-12-12 16:04:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2013-12-12 16:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-12-12 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more minute and we'll get going
2013-12-12 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a sip of water
2013-12-12 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: clear my desk
2013-12-12 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's see what we have to work with
2013-12-12 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to move above the zero line earlier in the week
2013-12-12 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO broke below pattern support on Wednesday
2013-12-12 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we ended up with a small point change today
2013-12-12 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2013-12-12 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was to be important for the MCO's to hold their November lows in order for this correctional process to have a expected end of late next week
2013-12-12 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have broken that support
2013-12-12 16:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now work with the idea that the rest of December will be corrective
2013-12-12 16:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that our next opportunity of a tradable low will likely to be in the beginning of January
2013-12-12 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's break down also allowed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM to break below it's October lows
2013-12-12 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're now expected to move all the way down to the zero line over the next week or so
2013-12-12 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still looking at the MCSUM
2013-12-12 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now see what can be termed as a "water fall decline" in progress
2013-12-12 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the momentum behind such structures
2013-12-12 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will continue to be under selling pressure now right through next weeks OPEX
2013-12-12 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-12-12 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do see that we still have a technical obligation to see the 5% Trend snapback to or towards its zero line in the near term
2013-12-12 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be too surprising that we'll see a bounce here near term
2013-12-12 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we have also met the lower end of the technical price support today
2013-12-12 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed mid range
2013-12-12 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation for Friday is for a higher close
2013-12-12 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite
2013-12-12 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also a small point change tonight on the NYSE breadth MCO
2013-12-12 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2013-12-12 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dramatic would be of at least 1%
2013-12-12 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something on the scale of 17-18 points on the SPX
2013-12-12 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2013-12-12 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we are now a day away from reaching the zero line
2013-12-12 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since this is a natural area of support
2013-12-12 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we have the same configuration with the 5% component to where a snapback is expected
2013-12-12 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the mid range close in the NYA
2013-12-12 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds favor that the 1% move is going to be higher
2013-12-12 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should halt the downside momentum of the MCSUM right at or near the zero line
2013-12-12 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see how she bounces
2013-12-12 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-12-12 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're about a day away from breaking below last months lows in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2013-12-12 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the NYSE data shows
2013-12-12 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component is also itching for a snapback here as well
2013-12-12 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ price average has minimally met its downside target of around 4000
2013-12-12 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did so really yesterday
2013-12-12 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's price bar held pretty well considering the amplitude of Wednesday's breakdown
2013-12-12 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday sure turned to be wild and wooly, didn't it?
2013-12-12 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO continued it's downside slide today after breaking horizontal support yesterday
2013-12-12 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was all that was needed for a confirmed break to the downside from our multi week symmetrical triangle in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2013-12-12 16:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have the look of a waterfall decline in progress on this MCSUM as well
2013-12-12 16:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's not good news for the buyers for now
2013-12-12 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the sellers have finally stepped in hard enough to finally make a difference
2013-12-12 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with literally no MCSUM support right now
2013-12-12 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation here is for a challenge of the zero line
2013-12-12 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have seen 3 previous successful tests in the last year
2013-12-12 16:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note though
2013-12-12 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this time
2013-12-12 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the two previous declines to zero
2013-12-12 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was an indecision breakdown this time around
2013-12-12 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could portend to this being "something different" this time around as we test this same zero line
2013-12-12 16:27:52 [Message] orange -> Chat: what do you mean by "indecision" ?
2013-12-12 16:28:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: do we have downside targets generated for the NDX now?
2013-12-12 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the symmetrical triangle
2013-12-12 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's an indecision pattern
2013-12-12 16:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, we do...
2013-12-12 16:28:19 [Message] orange -> Chat: ahh, okay
2013-12-12 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have enough energy leaving the market here for a downside target of around 3300
2013-12-12 16:29:00 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2013-12-12 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the daily NDX chart
2013-12-12 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see a neat little five wave advance into this weeks top from the early November lows
2013-12-12 16:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the way the market caved on Wednesday
2013-12-12 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the internals are breaking support
2013-12-12 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may turn out to be a longer than "normal" pull back
2013-12-12 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the normal has been 3-5 weeks over the last year
2013-12-12 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking now at something that may extend into the February period
2013-12-12 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the fundamental side
2013-12-12 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have both the Yellen vote next week
2013-12-12 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED announcement and OPEX
2013-12-12 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then in January
2013-12-12 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have something kind of interesting
2013-12-12 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next Fed Meeting is 1/28 and 1/29
2013-12-12 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Yellen takes over on 2/1
2013-12-12 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-12 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have talked about in the past
2013-12-12 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be kind of unusual to make any real policy changes as close as we are to this turnover in Fed chiefs
2013-12-12 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2013-12-12 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been nothing "usual" about Fed policy now for a decade either
2013-12-12 16:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this could be the thumb on the scale that will keep the market from moving in either direction until we get some clarity
2013-12-12 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2013-12-12 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the reason or reasons might be for what we're seeing technically
2013-12-12 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is best left for others to mull over
2013-12-12 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know for now is that
2013-12-12 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the breaks of support we've seen over the last couple of days
2013-12-12 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely Santa is going to pay a visit this year
2013-12-12 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to be rather sloppy after next Friday
2013-12-12 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2013-12-12 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now highly "oversold" with a reading of -77
2013-12-12 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some sort of reflex is due here
2013-12-12 16:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just to relieve some of the sell side imbalance of the last couple of days
2013-12-12 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target now with the SPX is confirmed to be 1750
2013-12-12 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any lower low in the SPX MCO projecting to around 1720
2013-12-12 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if these targets are coming up with anyone else, please do speak up as it always helps to have a cross check
2013-12-12 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also met our 1775 target today
2013-12-12 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce here would be indicated as well
2013-12-12 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it was 1775...let me check
2013-12-12 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't find it
2013-12-12 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I thought we discussed this on Tuesday...I guess not
2013-12-12 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2013-12-12 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another example on how these natural support levels on the MCSUM can have an influence on prices
2013-12-12 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCSUM breaking the +500 level on Wednesday
2013-12-12 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this just accelerated the decline
2013-12-12 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX
2013-12-12 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow breadth MCO now at the -90 level
2013-12-12 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could say that we've gone too far, too fast
2013-12-12 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: considering where we are with the Dow breadth MCSUM
2013-12-12 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's going to be any index that is going to reflect a 1% upside move with our small point change tonight, it will likely be the Dow
2013-12-12 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be about 157 points
2013-12-12 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart on the Dow
2013-12-12 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 157 points would also serve as a snapback to the line or previous horizontal price support as well
2013-12-12 16:46:58 [Message] orange -> Chat: seems logical
2013-12-12 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also close to having equality between this decline and last weeks now
2013-12-12 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds are are shaping up to be pretty good for a bounce here
2013-12-12 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-12 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, also means
2013-12-12 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to breakdown from here
2013-12-12 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a highly bearish event
2013-12-12 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would only happen with the MCO's moving to lower lows with no attempt to bounce here
2013-12-12 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the A/D lines still in positive configurations right now
2013-12-12 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second scenario would have lower odds of happening
2013-12-12 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the NAAD and NYAD lines
2013-12-12 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are still in constructive formations
2013-12-12 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any further selling on Friday in the NYSE
2013-12-12 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might change this
2013-12-12 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ looks fine
2013-12-12 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what doesn't look fine, btw
2013-12-12 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is Canada's TSX Venture data
2013-12-12 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stay away from the metals folks
2013-12-12 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do NOT get sucked in on these classic short covering rally's
2013-12-12 16:52:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NOPE
2013-12-12 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all part of the larger degree capitulation phase
2013-12-12 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the desperate traders who want all so badly to go long gold
2013-12-12 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are going to get so frustrated here
2013-12-12 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they are the ones that will provide the wash out needed to start a new trend
2013-12-12 16:53:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seen a couple rounds of it at TT already
2013-12-12 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember with the metals complex
2013-12-12 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that all of the metals, and especially gold, tend to make rounding bottoms and spike tops
2013-12-12 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rounding bottom takes months to develop
2013-12-12 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will include emotional "outbursts" from time to time
2013-12-12 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then almost within a day
2013-12-12 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all given back
2013-12-12 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any rally here of 1% or more is not indicative of a turnaround
2013-12-12 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: UNLESS
2013-12-12 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a foundational platform to use as a technical base
2013-12-12 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we don't have that now
2013-12-12 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-12-12 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the PM and XAU A/D lines look like "do do"
2013-12-12 16:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take about 2-3 months for that to change
2013-12-12 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like I've been saying in the weekend reviews for over a month now
2013-12-12 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't look like that we'll see a good trading rally in the metals until the spring
2013-12-12 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so patience is needed there
2013-12-12 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to equities
2013-12-12 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see we got a small bounce in the MID breadth MCO today
2013-12-12 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be another good sign for a 1 or 2 day bounce here
2013-12-12 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the negative side though
2013-12-12 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM did cross down and through the +500 level today
2013-12-12 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have a new downside target with the new lows in the MCO there - about 1260
2013-12-12 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2013-12-12 16:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that as long as the MCO's are on side of the zero line
2013-12-12 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCSUM's are on the other
2013-12-12 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing prices can do is chop sideways
2013-12-12 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that remains the expectation here
2013-12-12 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it's starting to get mighty exciting for the bears now
2013-12-12 16:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's also part of the corrective process as well
2013-12-12 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of sentiment
2013-12-12 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE came in a 144 today
2013-12-12 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was a lot of bottom fishers today
2013-12-12 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not indicative of a tradable low by any means
2013-12-12 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...this is now going to be a process that's going to take a bit more time to work itself out
2013-12-12 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but good for us
2013-12-12 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MCSUM told us to expect a top at the end of November
2013-12-12 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the BETS went to cash last weekend
2013-12-12 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're not getting hurt
2013-12-12 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hope)
2013-12-12 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2013-12-12 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it also broke horizontal support on Wednesday
2013-12-12 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now highly "oversold" here as well with a -67 reading after today's small bounce
2013-12-12 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2013-12-12 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of support in this MCO has now pushed the SML breadth MCSUM to below its support today as well
2013-12-12 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target then is...
2013-12-12 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still is 625
2013-12-12 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the MCSUM breaks the October lows
2013-12-12 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably looking at 600
2013-12-12 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be about a 10% decline
2013-12-12 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you don't think that will bear up the market's participants, I have an English bridge I can sell you in Arizona [smile]
2013-12-12 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2013-12-12 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM about 2 days away from challenging its zero line
2013-12-12 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-12-12 17:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we kind of expected on Tuesday
2013-12-12 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday did turn into a make or break day for the bears
2013-12-12 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they now have a nice bit of control on a short term trending basis
2013-12-12 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2013-12-12 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now expect a normal corrective sequence that should last 4-6 weeks
2013-12-12 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we had our starting point last week
2013-12-12 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would put us into early January at this time
2013-12-12 17:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing I'll be listening for on Friday
2013-12-12 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we do get our expected bounce
2013-12-12 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many analysts will claim that this is the start of our Santa end year rally
2013-12-12 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the ratio is over 75%
2013-12-12 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll know that the rest of the month isn't going to turn out that way
2013-12-12 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then these same folks will be looking toward the January effect as being negative for all of 2014
2013-12-12 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we'll go again [smile]
2013-12-12 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-12-12 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO and MCSUM continue to make lower lows
2013-12-12 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLY breadth MCSUM breaking the +500 level
2013-12-12 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look for a move down to the 62.50 level short term
2013-12-12 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of weakness...still looking corrective there
2013-12-12 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is showing how the sellers remain in control right now
2013-12-12 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a ton of downside texture in the pattern
2013-12-12 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking as though they are chipping away in an effort to win a prize in a piece of ice
2013-12-12 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chip chip chip
2013-12-12 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that they've broken below the +750 level
2013-12-12 17:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're now able to move prices to the lower end of the trading range at the 42 level
2013-12-12 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the previous tops at around the 41.50 level
2013-12-12 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much in the way of downside there...at least for now
2013-12-12 17:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...
2013-12-12 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend there only broke below its zero line today
2013-12-12 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is still a good hold
2013-12-12 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected last week
2013-12-12 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices in the XLE did indeed test the 85 level after the XLE breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line
2013-12-12 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got deeply "oversold" on the XLF breadth MCO
2013-12-12 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain on the sell side there
2013-12-12 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCSUM now 30 data points away from breaking below support at the -250 level
2013-12-12 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be enough for prices to break as well...and then likely find support at the 82.50 level
2013-12-12 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also moved to lower lows on Wednesday
2013-12-12 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was enough to move prices below our stops from last week
2013-12-12 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so better to stand aside there for now
2013-12-12 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall pattern though is not that bad though
2013-12-12 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that if interest rates do move higher
2013-12-12 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a better incentive for banks to loan money
2013-12-12 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2013-12-12 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anyone is getting changes in from their banks on new policies over the last couple of weeks
2013-12-12 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can blame Dodd/Frank
2013-12-12 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it kicks into high gear next year
2013-12-12 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the problems I'm hearing about with businesses here
2013-12-12 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that those who have been paying interest only payment on their credit lines
2013-12-12 17:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are all going to have to pay the interest PLUS 1% of the outstanding balances each month starting next year
2013-12-12 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's part of the bill so that it will help those with these outstanding loans to "pay them off" faster
2013-12-12 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2013-12-12 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know of any business out there that wouldn't want to pay off their balances quicker anyway
2013-12-12 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could be a tipping point for many of these same businesses
2013-12-12 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially getting hit across the chops as ACA hits these same businesses next year
2013-12-12 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on that one
2013-12-12 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noticed today that business inventories were up in November
2013-12-12 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not good news
2013-12-12 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the three
2013-12-12 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are close to a breaking point will likely snap early next year
2013-12-12 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at least those who pass these kind of laws were compassionate enough and "tried" to right the problems
2013-12-12 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO is also deeply "oversold" here at -100
2013-12-12 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is accelerating the decline in the XLV breadth MCSUM
2013-12-12 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new downside targets there are at 52.50
2013-12-12 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also be a 10% correction from the November highs
2013-12-12 17:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO is also deeply "oversold" with a reading of -91
2013-12-12 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the XLI breadth MCSUM still well above the +500 level at +841
2013-12-12 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further selling here should be quickly contained
2013-12-12 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another reason why we could see a strong reflex rally in the Dow over the next couple of days
2013-12-12 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow chart with a 20 day and 50 day EMA
2013-12-12 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it found intraday support today at the 50 day EMA
2013-12-12 17:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce up to the 20 day would be suggested here
2013-12-12 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that comes in at around 15,895
2013-12-12 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2013-12-12 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 156 points away
2013-12-12 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing how numbers come up sometimes
2013-12-12 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is attempting to construct a divergent bottom
2013-12-12 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we previously discussed last week
2013-12-12 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain on a sell signal there
2013-12-12 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the objective for the XLB breadth MCSUM to challenge its zero line
2013-12-12 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO also break to the downside on Wednesday
2013-12-12 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which allowed prices to also break to the downside as well
2013-12-12 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's break also broke the rising bottoms line we spoke about last week that was controlling the XLK breadth MCSUM pattern as well
2013-12-12 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point
2013-12-12 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's work with the 33.50/34 level as providing pattern support for now
2013-12-12 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the near term prognosis of a reflex rally to relieve the highly "oversold" reading in the XLK breadth MCO
2013-12-12 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO is trying its best to provide bull divergence at this point
2013-12-12 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it won't be triggered until this MCO moves back above its zero line
2013-12-12 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: conversely, any break in the September lows in the XLU breadth MCSUM would then put on a SOB warning in the price pattern
2013-12-12 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-12-12 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're just now starting to see the general market correcting now
2013-12-12 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Wednesday's break down the trigger between a simple pause to refresh to something that's now going to take a bit more time to sort out
2013-12-12 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of December then should continue to be a drag on prices
2013-12-12 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today maybe providing our first "flag" point from which we can start to construct an internal low
2013-12-12 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know for sure by Monday on that one
2013-12-12 17:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are mixed but heavy
2013-12-12 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can produce a one or two day reflex rally
2013-12-12 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the STVO's minimally "oversold"
2013-12-12 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a snapback to the zero line first
2013-12-12 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll go for the bottom there
2013-12-12 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are negative overall
2013-12-12 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now in a position to where this indicator will need to go "oversold" before we're likely to see a price bottom
2013-12-12 17:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.05
2013-12-12 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2013-12-12 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still not enough to be "oversold" as we talked about on Tuesday
2013-12-12 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.23
2013-12-12 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2013-12-12 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call that neutral
2013-12-12 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can take control near term
2013-12-12 17:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.10.
2013-12-12 17:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2013-12-12 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS number
2013-12-12 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero
2013-12-12 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolute neutral...one side will take control
2013-12-12 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash position
2013-12-12 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it looks tomorrow
2013-12-12 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-12 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-12-12 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best policy is to remain defensive for now
2013-12-12 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you have any profits on longs, it might be time to bank
2013-12-12 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially on any rally tomorrow
2013-12-12 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll tend to get your best bids as the "dumb money" believes that another bottom is behind us as has so often been the case over the last 18 months
2013-12-12 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a matter of conditioning...merchandising
2013-12-12 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad we didn't get to 1825
2013-12-12 17:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but 1808 is still 1% away
2013-12-12 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2013-12-12 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not playing horseshoes, are we? [smile]
2013-12-12 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that next week we have THREE, count them, THREE, chats !!
2013-12-12 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
2013-12-12 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2013-12-12 17:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's nothing else
2013-12-12 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-12-12 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super duper weekend
2013-12-12 17:54:30 [Message] gman -> Chat: And with that, as Don says... ONO  lol
2013-12-12 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what we have to work with on Tuesday
2013-12-12 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2013-12-12 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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