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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-12-12 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...good day?
2012-12-12 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hello hello helllo...
2012-12-12 16:00:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: hello!
2012-12-12 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: empty room
2012-12-12 16:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi Miss D
2012-12-12 16:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess we'll wait a bit for the stragglers
2012-12-12 16:01:12 [Message] MissD -> Chat: I guess everyone else forgot there was a chat today
2012-12-12 16:01:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: or they are all out Christmas shopping
2012-12-12 16:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-12-12 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-12-12 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2012-12-12 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above the last week or so's bottoming formation at the
2012-12-12 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no real technical damage at this time
2012-12-12 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's +47 reading on the MCO, the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continued to move higher
2012-12-12 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's follow through
2012-12-12 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely now to see our next area of resistance at the +500 level
2012-12-12 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO also moved slightly lower today
2012-12-12 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too remains above the bottoming pattern of the last week
2012-12-12 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected
2012-12-12 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM still below the +500 level (+362)
2012-12-12 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices were not able to move above the September/October highs
2012-12-12 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might have had a near term exhaustion bar today as this was one of the ideas we played with yesterday
2012-12-12 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the case
2012-12-12 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be the beginning of our moving into our expected mid December low
2012-12-12 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should include moving tools, like the Open 10, back to at least neutral readings
2012-12-12 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally, back to "oversold"
2012-12-12 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would include, of course, a probable break of our complex pattern structure in the MCO
2012-12-12 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a move back to the zero line
2012-12-12 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should know more tomorrow
2012-12-12 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small snapback to the +25 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2012-12-12 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain on course with a date of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM's zero line
2012-12-12 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now right up to its pattern resistance levels of the two rounding tops we see in the MCSUM from the September/October period
2012-12-12 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be an important statement made by the bulls if we can clear these tops
2012-12-12 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the +250 level as well
2012-12-12 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will evidently take a break above this same MCSUM level so that the NDX price pattern can also take out its overhead resistance point of the 2700 level
2012-12-12 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe tomorrow...we'll see how that goes
2012-12-12 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to the top of the range on Tuesday
2012-12-12 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO pulled back a bit today
2012-12-12 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all within the confines of our expected complex MCO pattern sequence above the zero line
2012-12-12 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile, the SPX breadth MCSUM is now at the +300 level on its way towards +500
2012-12-12 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a minimal change today on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-12-12 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now cleared the +250 level today on the OEX breadth MCSUM with a reading of +305
2012-12-12 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a small pullback in the Dow breadth MCO
2012-12-12 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was a enough to push the Dow breadth MCSUM above its ledge resistance point that we talked about on Tuesday
2012-12-12 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did move below last weeks support area
2012-12-12 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MID breadth MCSUM now at the all important +500 level (+491)
2012-12-12 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we'll continue to ease off here
2012-12-12 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're getting ready to move up and through this important level of strength
2012-12-12 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday wise
2012-12-12 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved to our highest levels since the September all time highs
2012-12-12 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rest here to regroup might be in order given the work the bulls have done over the last month
2012-12-12 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected yesterday, with the SML breadth MCO not being able to improve on its gains on Tuesday, prices were not able to plow through the 470 level
2012-12-12 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a simple reversal bar was the result
2012-12-12 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this takes a day or two of back and fill before another attempt is made to move to higher highs
2012-12-12 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the SML breadth MCO breaking below last weeks lows today
2012-12-12 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the best index play for a possible "hit and run" short
2012-12-12 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the larger context of an advancing short term trend
2012-12-12 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be short and shallow
2012-12-12 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe finding ultimate support at the 460 level
2012-12-12 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2012-12-12 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could also be part of a simple snapback to the price consolidation pattern we saw prior to yesterday's breakout as well
2012-12-12 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO held up nicely today
2012-12-12 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains above Monday's lows
2012-12-12 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM breadth MCSUM continues to improve on its progress toward the +250 level
2012-12-12 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-12 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two point conversion by the bulls failed
2012-12-12 16:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bears will have their opportunity
2012-12-12 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see what kind of "kicker" the bulls have in their arsenal near term
2012-12-12 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether the kick will be deep in bear territory
2012-12-12 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a touch back
2012-12-12 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where the bears will probably have a couple of days of play to work with
2012-12-12 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NYSE CO volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE CO volume MCSUM plowed through its pattern resistance today
2012-12-12 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news
2012-12-12 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a small point change as well on the NYSE composite volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a bit of tension on the tape here
2012-12-12 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like indecision if anything else
2012-12-12 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was quite a statement by the FED
2012-12-12 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have chapter and verse of what their working with and looking at
2012-12-12 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, they don't think they will need to lift this current accomodative policy until 2015
2012-12-12 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if we can only get the banks to drop the Prime Rate...that would help immensely
2012-12-12 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2012-12-12 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit of a pullback as well on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is now above the +250 level with a +258 reading
2012-12-12 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the top at the end of September is keeping prices from moving significantly higher
2012-12-12 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least, minimally, breaking above the 3025 level where we have pattern consolidation in the beginning of November
2012-12-12 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small pullback as well on the NDX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the NDX volume MCSUM is about 40 data points away from the +250 level
2012-12-12 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be a character moment for the bulls coming by Friday in their hope of holding +50 support on the NDX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very light selling today
2012-12-12 16:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this shows up in the SPX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the SPX volume MCSUM has cleared its +250 level
2012-12-12 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX data
2012-12-12 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX volume MCO having its own small point change
2012-12-12 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small positive reading today on the Dow volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control that pattern
2012-12-12 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had good follow through to the upside today on the MID volume MCSUM
2012-12-12 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can get the MID breadth MCSUM to agree, that should be enough to move the price pattern into all time highs
2012-12-12 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small move lower as well with the SML volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the TM volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's reading on the MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM volume MCSUM has now also cleared the +250 level today
2012-12-12 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-12 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what looked as though we might be looking at a day or two of pause here on the breadth side
2012-12-12 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume side is suggesting that today was one of those stealth days
2012-12-12 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: failing to hold the rally intraday
2012-12-12 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closing near the lows
2012-12-12 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will tend to keep the majority from moving into the market on the back on the FED announcement
2012-12-12 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as volume plurality remains bouyant as it is right now
2012-12-12 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will continue to be with the bulls
2012-12-12 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's always good to have the volume side leading breadth in the direction of the path of least resistance
2012-12-12 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do open lower on Thursday, it shouldn't last too long
2012-12-12 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the odds would favor a flat to up close if that happens
2012-12-12 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all "hit and run" for the bears right now
2012-12-12 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...nothing has changed that much from yesterday to today to warrant any kind of caution
2012-12-12 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look
2012-12-12 16:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we relieved much of the climactic behavior from yesterday with relative ease
2012-12-12 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow STVO and VTO now "overbought"
2012-12-12 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other VTO's now moving to or towards "overbought" extremes
2012-12-12 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .72
2012-12-12 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2012-12-12 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .76
2012-12-12 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2012-12-12 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .81
2012-12-12 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2012-12-12 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much change there from yesterday
2012-12-12 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-12-12 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken altogether
2012-12-12 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem to be a reasonable expectation that we're in the process of a simple price pattern snapback to last weeks trading range on the price chart
2012-12-12 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX
2012-12-12 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1420/1422 should provide support on the cash
2012-12-12 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 13,100 on the Dow
2012-12-12 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so enough to agitate the bears that we may have topped today with the FED announcement
2012-12-12 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the underlying strength
2012-12-12 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pullback here could be sharp and quick to meet these same downside pattern objectives
2012-12-12 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see, what else?
2012-12-12 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unweighted averages are showing much better strength here than the weighted ones
2012-12-12 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good omen
2012-12-12 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, by quite a bit
2012-12-12 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's the heavy weights that weighed down the price patterns today into the close it would seem
2012-12-12 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see these charts under the "unweighted indexes" link at the bottom of the DP page
2012-12-12 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions at all...recommendations??
2012-12-12 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we have very little change from the previous day's work it's hard to add anything different
2012-12-12 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Futures are flat
2012-12-12 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look around my chart library
2012-12-12 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAR buy signal on the Euro today
2012-12-12 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 130 would confirm it
2012-12-12 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Yen is in free fall
2012-12-12 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strongest currencies right now are the Aussie and Canadian dollars
2012-12-12 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-12-12 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie Dollar is at multi year highs
2012-12-12 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the limited data from SC
2012-12-12 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe at all time highs
2012-12-12 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie market is very strong right now
2012-12-12 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EWA
2012-12-12 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Austria and Belgium as well
2012-12-12 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of Europe
2012-12-12 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hong Kong
2012-12-12 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mexico
2012-12-12 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Italy is churning
2012-12-12 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is Spain
2012-12-12 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: So...Asian and European averages are firm here
2012-12-12 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Latin America, with the exception of Mexico, are weak
2012-12-12 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow Transports are once again at 5200 resistance
2012-12-12 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just can't seem to break above that level
2012-12-12 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Airlines are strong
2012-12-12 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Defense is firm
2012-12-12 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's Fed Statement, one could start to nibble at the PM stocks
2012-12-12 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Healthcare and Technology (we already knew that)
2012-12-12 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: China is waking up
2012-12-12 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Commodities are very soft here
2012-12-12 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trending sideways...waiting for the weather
2012-12-12 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good action on the Euro as mentioned earlier...you can trade it on FXE
2012-12-12 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the larger volume spike today on the upside
2012-12-12 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "clean" energy sector is getting good support here
2012-12-12 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though not in a bullish configuration as yet
2012-12-12 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PBW and PBD if you want to check them out
2012-12-12 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mixture global products are doing well
2012-12-12 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EAFE and BRIC
2012-12-12 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home Builders and Home Construction are in high level consolidation patterns waiting for the spring
2012-12-12 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with interest rates continuing to remain low, the real estate should continue to do fine for a while
2012-12-12 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about yesterday, the Industrial ETF's are doing very well here
2012-12-12 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYC closed at new recovery highs today
2012-12-12 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is something we didn't have in the summer rally
2012-12-12 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the NYA seemed to lag the entire time
2012-12-12 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's benefiting on the move in the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-12-12 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news
2012-12-12 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the packaged REITS are struggling here
2012-12-12 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting
2012-12-12 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Semi's are in the process of moving back up to the upper level of its ongoing trading range
2012-12-12 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2012-12-12 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts you get the feeling that the market wants to go higher, but it's being held down with some sort of weight
2012-12-12 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many sector ETF's it's been a struggle...like pulling teeth
2012-12-12 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if our idea of a mid December bottom still holds true
2012-12-12 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then after that, we should get a better rhythm to work with
2012-12-12 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the NYSE breadth and volume MCSUM's remain below their +500 level
2012-12-12 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have work to do before we can call the "all clear"
2012-12-12 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do close above the September/October highs
2012-12-12 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be able to stay there and improve from there
2012-12-12 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that time
2012-12-12 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher
2012-12-12 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation of seeing ourselves rally into January
2012-12-12 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more readings above +500 we get
2012-12-12 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can get comfortable in looking for the probably time for the actual top of the longer term sequence sometime in the April/May period
2012-12-12 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...steady as she goes
2012-12-12 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-12 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments...answers ???
2012-12-12 17:26:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: In Elliott Wave terms, what kind of top do you think this longer term sequence will result in?  A giant B wave, or something else?
2012-12-12 17:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we do have guidelines to help us
2012-12-12 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually if we have a B wave
2012-12-12 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the characteristic of something not being quite right
2012-12-12 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, overall, we do have both breadth and volume trends confirming this move
2012-12-12 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely a B wave
2012-12-12 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did, however, see high extremes in the MCO's over the last couple of weeks
2012-12-12 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some moving to new yearly highs
2012-12-12 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be consistent to a 3rd wave of one degree or the other in force
2012-12-12 17:29:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I know a lot of technicians think we top in a B wave and then go down in  C wave to complete the pattern from 2008
2012-12-12 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...fourth waves generally retrace back to the starting point of wave two on the MCO
2012-12-12 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't see that this past week
2012-12-12 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we held well above the zero line
2012-12-12 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one option then
2012-12-12 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are finishing a simple 5 wave structure to the upside
2012-12-12 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what would be wave 1
2012-12-12 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with wave 2 starting today (maybe)
2012-12-12 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a larger 3rd wave sometime in January
2012-12-12 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if I'm so bright on that idea
2012-12-12 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to your statement
2012-12-12 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliotticians can have all the ideas they want
2012-12-12 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless the internals confirm the structure
2012-12-12 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more of an emotional play
2012-12-12 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would fully fit the structure right now
2012-12-12 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are very few who actually believe that we continue to rally in the face of cliffs and debt
2012-12-12 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so they "decide" to give it a B label
2012-12-12 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way they can continue to believe in their corrective idea
2012-12-12 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be better served
2012-12-12 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fit both the internals and their inconsistencies as it would apple to the amplitude
2012-12-12 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be an X wave
2012-12-12 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get good internal characteristics
2012-12-12 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it fails because of something fundamental holds back the pattern
2012-12-12 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pattern of hope...after seeing a violent shake out like we had in November
2012-12-12 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the problem with Elliott
2012-12-12 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the old days there weren't a lot of folks giving their counts and opinions on the market
2012-12-12 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you get too many analysis trading off the same idea
2012-12-12 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't happen
2012-12-12 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-12-12 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have discussed many times
2012-12-12 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall sentiment remains quite negative
2012-12-12 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this feeds the bullish advance
2012-12-12 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single day we see a Cliff Clock
2012-12-12 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2012-12-12 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't a set deadline to all of this
2012-12-12 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been a fabrication of the media
2012-12-12 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we, as emotional humans who tend to panic when we either can't control or understand something
2012-12-12 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take this all in and react accordingly
2012-12-12 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2012-12-12 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been long, on balance, since the MCSUM turned up Thanksgiving week
2012-12-12 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-12-12 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we knew that we couldn't have more than 1 ledge and 1 fishhook in a single declining MCSUM sequence
2012-12-12 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was an easy play once the MCSUM turned
2012-12-12 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to monitor things here
2012-12-12 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look forward for the final ingredient that would give us the "all clear"
2012-12-12 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is to get the MCSUM's above the pivotal +500 level
2012-12-12 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can do that
2012-12-12 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it really won't matter what is or isn't agreed upon in DC
2012-12-12 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2012-12-12 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the Congress
2012-12-12 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can adjust and change anything they want at any time
2012-12-12 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there the market is figuring that there will be something to settle on
2012-12-12 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they will "promise us" that after the new Congress is sworn in, and the President takes the oath of office, then the real work will begin
2012-12-12 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-12-12 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will believe and continue to flow into the one asset class that produces a return higher than 2%
2012-12-12 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's stocks
2012-12-12 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it doesn't have to be a fundamental basis to invest in what has turned into a commodity
2012-12-12 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move higher
2012-12-12 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED's spigot is not only wide open
2012-12-12 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they have thrown away the valve key
2012-12-12 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the world is doing the same
2012-12-12 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues
2012-12-12 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bad news will be absorbed
2012-12-12 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll continue to show a longer term pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2012-12-12 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we have now
2012-12-12 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually...
2012-12-12 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to all time highs
2012-12-12 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't help but do so
2012-12-12 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as far as Elliott labeling is concerned
2012-12-12 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would put it on the back burner for now until we get some sort of indication from the internals that a change in this current trend can indeed happen
2012-12-12 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a bad thing to be able to label something after the fact
2012-12-12 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it's probably the preferred way to work with Elliott anyway
2012-12-12 17:44:14 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks 
2012-12-12 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to remember to work with what the market gives us
2012-12-12 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be reasonable in our expectation
2012-12-12 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all know the background stories here
2012-12-12 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market doesn't care about it right now
2012-12-12 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it becomes weaker
2012-12-12 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can worry as well
2012-12-12 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then...cruise control
2012-12-12 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the news bothers you, turn it off
2012-12-12 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if your seeing the infamous Fiscal Clock click away on your screen
2012-12-12 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn it off
2012-12-12 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means nothing
2012-12-12 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's purpose is to deceive
2012-12-12 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading and reality only come together if they agree
2012-12-12 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can listen and agree with anyone's opinion
2012-12-12 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like many say...price is king
2012-12-12 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as money supports the current advance
2012-12-12 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to argue?
2012-12-12 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the question
2012-12-12 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-12 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...
2012-12-12 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want our money working for us at all times
2012-12-12 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to just sit there...we can do that in our cash account
2012-12-12 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving in...follow it
2012-12-12 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get the answers later
2012-12-12 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's moving out
2012-12-12 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow it...
2012-12-12 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember to reign in any bearish fundamentals as well
2012-12-12 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may mean something during that specific sequence
2012-12-12 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it might be something else giving the market indigestion
2012-12-12 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trade what you see...not what you feel
2012-12-12 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, hard to do
2012-12-12 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you get used to it
2012-12-12 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-12-12 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there's something else
2012-12-12 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-12-12 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening
2012-12-12 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again tomorrow
2012-12-12 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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