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Posts: 5,090
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-12-12 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...good day?
2012-12-12 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hello hello helllo...
2012-12-12 16:00:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: hello!
2012-12-12 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: empty room
2012-12-12 16:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi Miss D
2012-12-12 16:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess we'll wait a bit for the stragglers
2012-12-12 16:01:12 [Message] MissD -> Chat: I guess everyone else forgot there was a chat today
2012-12-12 16:01:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: or they are all out Christmas shopping
2012-12-12 16:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-12-12 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-12-12 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2012-12-12 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above the last week or so's bottoming formation at the
2012-12-12 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no real technical damage at this time
2012-12-12 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's +47 reading on the MCO, the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continued to move higher
2012-12-12 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's follow through
2012-12-12 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely now to see our next area of resistance at the +500 level
2012-12-12 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO also moved slightly lower today
2012-12-12 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too remains above the bottoming pattern of the last week
2012-12-12 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected
2012-12-12 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM still below the +500 level (+362)
2012-12-12 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices were not able to move above the September/October highs
2012-12-12 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might have had a near term exhaustion bar today as this was one of the ideas we played with yesterday
2012-12-12 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the case
2012-12-12 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be the beginning of our moving into our expected mid December low
2012-12-12 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should include moving tools, like the Open 10, back to at least neutral readings
2012-12-12 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally, back to "oversold"
2012-12-12 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would include, of course, a probable break of our complex pattern structure in the MCO
2012-12-12 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a move back to the zero line
2012-12-12 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should know more tomorrow
2012-12-12 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small snapback to the +25 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2012-12-12 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain on course with a date of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM's zero line
2012-12-12 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now right up to its pattern resistance levels of the two rounding tops we see in the MCSUM from the September/October period
2012-12-12 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be an important statement made by the bulls if we can clear these tops
2012-12-12 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the +250 level as well
2012-12-12 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will evidently take a break above this same MCSUM level so that the NDX price pattern can also take out its overhead resistance point of the 2700 level
2012-12-12 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe tomorrow...we'll see how that goes
2012-12-12 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to the top of the range on Tuesday
2012-12-12 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO pulled back a bit today
2012-12-12 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all within the confines of our expected complex MCO pattern sequence above the zero line
2012-12-12 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile, the SPX breadth MCSUM is now at the +300 level on its way towards +500
2012-12-12 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a minimal change today on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-12-12 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now cleared the +250 level today on the OEX breadth MCSUM with a reading of +305
2012-12-12 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a small pullback in the Dow breadth MCO
2012-12-12 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was a enough to push the Dow breadth MCSUM above its ledge resistance point that we talked about on Tuesday
2012-12-12 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did move below last weeks support area
2012-12-12 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MID breadth MCSUM now at the all important +500 level (+491)
2012-12-12 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we'll continue to ease off here
2012-12-12 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're getting ready to move up and through this important level of strength
2012-12-12 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday wise
2012-12-12 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved to our highest levels since the September all time highs
2012-12-12 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rest here to regroup might be in order given the work the bulls have done over the last month
2012-12-12 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected yesterday, with the SML breadth MCO not being able to improve on its gains on Tuesday, prices were not able to plow through the 470 level
2012-12-12 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a simple reversal bar was the result
2012-12-12 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this takes a day or two of back and fill before another attempt is made to move to higher highs
2012-12-12 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the SML breadth MCO breaking below last weeks lows today
2012-12-12 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the best index play for a possible "hit and run" short
2012-12-12 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the larger context of an advancing short term trend
2012-12-12 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be short and shallow
2012-12-12 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe finding ultimate support at the 460 level
2012-12-12 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2012-12-12 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could also be part of a simple snapback to the price consolidation pattern we saw prior to yesterday's breakout as well
2012-12-12 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO held up nicely today
2012-12-12 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains above Monday's lows
2012-12-12 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM breadth MCSUM continues to improve on its progress toward the +250 level
2012-12-12 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-12 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two point conversion by the bulls failed
2012-12-12 16:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bears will have their opportunity
2012-12-12 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see what kind of "kicker" the bulls have in their arsenal near term
2012-12-12 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether the kick will be deep in bear territory
2012-12-12 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a touch back
2012-12-12 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where the bears will probably have a couple of days of play to work with
2012-12-12 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NYSE CO volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE CO volume MCSUM plowed through its pattern resistance today
2012-12-12 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news
2012-12-12 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a small point change as well on the NYSE composite volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a bit of tension on the tape here
2012-12-12 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like indecision if anything else
2012-12-12 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was quite a statement by the FED
2012-12-12 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have chapter and verse of what their working with and looking at
2012-12-12 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, they don't think they will need to lift this current accomodative policy until 2015
2012-12-12 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if we can only get the banks to drop the Prime Rate...that would help immensely
2012-12-12 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2012-12-12 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit of a pullback as well on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is now above the +250 level with a +258 reading
2012-12-12 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the top at the end of September is keeping prices from moving significantly higher
2012-12-12 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least, minimally, breaking above the 3025 level where we have pattern consolidation in the beginning of November
2012-12-12 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small pullback as well on the NDX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the NDX volume MCSUM is about 40 data points away from the +250 level
2012-12-12 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be a character moment for the bulls coming by Friday in their hope of holding +50 support on the NDX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very light selling today
2012-12-12 16:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this shows up in the SPX volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the SPX volume MCSUM has cleared its +250 level
2012-12-12 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX data
2012-12-12 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX volume MCO having its own small point change
2012-12-12 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small positive reading today on the Dow volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control that pattern
2012-12-12 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had good follow through to the upside today on the MID volume MCSUM
2012-12-12 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can get the MID breadth MCSUM to agree, that should be enough to move the price pattern into all time highs
2012-12-12 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small move lower as well with the SML volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the TM volume MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's reading on the MCO
2012-12-12 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM volume MCSUM has now also cleared the +250 level today
2012-12-12 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-12-12 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what looked as though we might be looking at a day or two of pause here on the breadth side
2012-12-12 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume side is suggesting that today was one of those stealth days
2012-12-12 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: failing to hold the rally intraday
2012-12-12 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closing near the lows
2012-12-12 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will tend to keep the majority from moving into the market on the back on the FED announcement
2012-12-12 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as volume plurality remains bouyant as it is right now
2012-12-12 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will continue to be with the bulls
2012-12-12 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's always good to have the volume side leading breadth in the direction of the path of least resistance
2012-12-12 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do open lower on Thursday, it shouldn't last too long
2012-12-12 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the odds would favor a flat to up close if that happens
2012-12-12 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all "hit and run" for the bears right now
2012-12-12 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...nothing has changed that much from yesterday to today to warrant any kind of caution
2012-12-12 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look
2012-12-12 16:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we relieved much of the climactic behavior from yesterday with relative ease
2012-12-12 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow STVO and VTO now "overbought"
2012-12-12 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other VTO's now moving to or towards "overbought" extremes
2012-12-12 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .72
2012-12-12 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2012-12-12 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .76
2012-12-12 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2012-12-12 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .81
2012-12-12 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2012-12-12 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much change there from yesterday
2012-12-12 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-12-12 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken altogether
2012-12-12 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem to be a reasonable expectation that we're in the process of a simple price pattern snapback to last weeks trading range on the price chart
2012-12-12 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX
2012-12-12 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1420/1422 should provide support on the cash
2012-12-12 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 13,100 on the Dow
2012-12-12 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so enough to agitate the bears that we may have topped today with the FED announcement
2012-12-12 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the underlying strength
2012-12-12 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pullback here could be sharp and quick to meet these same downside pattern objectives
2012-12-12 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see, what else?
2012-12-12 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unweighted averages are showing much better strength here than the weighted ones
2012-12-12 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good omen
2012-12-12 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, by quite a bit
2012-12-12 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's the heavy weights that weighed down the price patterns today into the close it would seem
2012-12-12 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see these charts under the "unweighted indexes" link at the bottom of the DP page
2012-12-12 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions at all...recommendations??
2012-12-12 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we have very little change from the previous day's work it's hard to add anything different
2012-12-12 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Futures are flat
2012-12-12 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look around my chart library
2012-12-12 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAR buy signal on the Euro today
2012-12-12 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 130 would confirm it
2012-12-12 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Yen is in free fall
2012-12-12 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strongest currencies right now are the Aussie and Canadian dollars
2012-12-12 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-12-12 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie Dollar is at multi year highs
2012-12-12 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the limited data from SC
2012-12-12 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe at all time highs
2012-12-12 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie market is very strong right now
2012-12-12 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EWA
2012-12-12 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Austria and Belgium as well
2012-12-12 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of Europe
2012-12-12 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hong Kong
2012-12-12 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mexico
2012-12-12 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Italy is churning
2012-12-12 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is Spain
2012-12-12 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: So...Asian and European averages are firm here
2012-12-12 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Latin America, with the exception of Mexico, are weak
2012-12-12 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow Transports are once again at 5200 resistance
2012-12-12 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just can't seem to break above that level
2012-12-12 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Airlines are strong
2012-12-12 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Defense is firm
2012-12-12 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's Fed Statement, one could start to nibble at the PM stocks
2012-12-12 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Healthcare and Technology (we already knew that)
2012-12-12 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: China is waking up
2012-12-12 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Commodities are very soft here
2012-12-12 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trending sideways...waiting for the weather
2012-12-12 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good action on the Euro as mentioned can trade it on FXE
2012-12-12 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the larger volume spike today on the upside
2012-12-12 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "clean" energy sector is getting good support here
2012-12-12 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though not in a bullish configuration as yet
2012-12-12 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PBW and PBD if you want to check them out
2012-12-12 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mixture global products are doing well
2012-12-12 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EAFE and BRIC
2012-12-12 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home Builders and Home Construction are in high level consolidation patterns waiting for the spring
2012-12-12 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with interest rates continuing to remain low, the real estate should continue to do fine for a while
2012-12-12 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about yesterday, the Industrial ETF's are doing very well here
2012-12-12 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYC closed at new recovery highs today
2012-12-12 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is something we didn't have in the summer rally
2012-12-12 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the NYA seemed to lag the entire time
2012-12-12 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's benefiting on the move in the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-12-12 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news
2012-12-12 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the packaged REITS are struggling here
2012-12-12 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting
2012-12-12 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Semi's are in the process of moving back up to the upper level of its ongoing trading range
2012-12-12 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2012-12-12 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts you get the feeling that the market wants to go higher, but it's being held down with some sort of weight
2012-12-12 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many sector ETF's it's been a pulling teeth
2012-12-12 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if our idea of a mid December bottom still holds true
2012-12-12 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then after that, we should get a better rhythm to work with
2012-12-12 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the NYSE breadth and volume MCSUM's remain below their +500 level
2012-12-12 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have work to do before we can call the "all clear"
2012-12-12 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do close above the September/October highs
2012-12-12 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be able to stay there and improve from there
2012-12-12 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that time
2012-12-12 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher
2012-12-12 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation of seeing ourselves rally into January
2012-12-12 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more readings above +500 we get
2012-12-12 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can get comfortable in looking for the probably time for the actual top of the longer term sequence sometime in the April/May period
2012-12-12 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...steady as she goes
2012-12-12 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-12 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments...answers ???
2012-12-12 17:26:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: In Elliott Wave terms, what kind of top do you think this longer term sequence will result in?  A giant B wave, or something else?
2012-12-12 17:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we do have guidelines to help us
2012-12-12 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually if we have a B wave
2012-12-12 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the characteristic of something not being quite right
2012-12-12 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, overall, we do have both breadth and volume trends confirming this move
2012-12-12 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely a B wave
2012-12-12 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did, however, see high extremes in the MCO's over the last couple of weeks
2012-12-12 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some moving to new yearly highs
2012-12-12 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be consistent to a 3rd wave of one degree or the other in force
2012-12-12 17:29:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I know a lot of technicians think we top in a B wave and then go down in  C wave to complete the pattern from 2008
2012-12-12 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...fourth waves generally retrace back to the starting point of wave two on the MCO
2012-12-12 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't see that this past week
2012-12-12 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we held well above the zero line
2012-12-12 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one option then
2012-12-12 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are finishing a simple 5 wave structure to the upside
2012-12-12 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what would be wave 1
2012-12-12 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with wave 2 starting today (maybe)
2012-12-12 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a larger 3rd wave sometime in January
2012-12-12 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if I'm so bright on that idea
2012-12-12 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to your statement
2012-12-12 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliotticians can have all the ideas they want
2012-12-12 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless the internals confirm the structure
2012-12-12 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more of an emotional play
2012-12-12 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would fully fit the structure right now
2012-12-12 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are very few who actually believe that we continue to rally in the face of cliffs and debt
2012-12-12 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so they "decide" to give it a B label
2012-12-12 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way they can continue to believe in their corrective idea
2012-12-12 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be better served
2012-12-12 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fit both the internals and their inconsistencies as it would apple to the amplitude
2012-12-12 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be an X wave
2012-12-12 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get good internal characteristics
2012-12-12 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it fails because of something fundamental holds back the pattern
2012-12-12 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pattern of hope...after seeing a violent shake out like we had in November
2012-12-12 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the problem with Elliott
2012-12-12 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the old days there weren't a lot of folks giving their counts and opinions on the market
2012-12-12 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you get too many analysis trading off the same idea
2012-12-12 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't happen
2012-12-12 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-12-12 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have discussed many times
2012-12-12 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall sentiment remains quite negative
2012-12-12 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this feeds the bullish advance
2012-12-12 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single day we see a Cliff Clock
2012-12-12 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2012-12-12 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't a set deadline to all of this
2012-12-12 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been a fabrication of the media
2012-12-12 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we, as emotional humans who tend to panic when we either can't control or understand something
2012-12-12 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take this all in and react accordingly
2012-12-12 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2012-12-12 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been long, on balance, since the MCSUM turned up Thanksgiving week
2012-12-12 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-12-12 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we knew that we couldn't have more than 1 ledge and 1 fishhook in a single declining MCSUM sequence
2012-12-12 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was an easy play once the MCSUM turned
2012-12-12 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-12-12 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to monitor things here
2012-12-12 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look forward for the final ingredient that would give us the "all clear"
2012-12-12 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is to get the MCSUM's above the pivotal +500 level
2012-12-12 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can do that
2012-12-12 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it really won't matter what is or isn't agreed upon in DC
2012-12-12 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2012-12-12 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the Congress
2012-12-12 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can adjust and change anything they want at any time
2012-12-12 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there the market is figuring that there will be something to settle on
2012-12-12 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they will "promise us" that after the new Congress is sworn in, and the President takes the oath of office, then the real work will begin
2012-12-12 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-12-12 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will believe and continue to flow into the one asset class that produces a return higher than 2%
2012-12-12 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's stocks
2012-12-12 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it doesn't have to be a fundamental basis to invest in what has turned into a commodity
2012-12-12 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move higher
2012-12-12 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED's spigot is not only wide open
2012-12-12 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they have thrown away the valve key
2012-12-12 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the world is doing the same
2012-12-12 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues
2012-12-12 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bad news will be absorbed
2012-12-12 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll continue to show a longer term pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2012-12-12 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we have now
2012-12-12 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually...
2012-12-12 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to all time highs
2012-12-12 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't help but do so
2012-12-12 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: far as Elliott labeling is concerned
2012-12-12 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would put it on the back burner for now until we get some sort of indication from the internals that a change in this current trend can indeed happen
2012-12-12 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a bad thing to be able to label something after the fact
2012-12-12 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it's probably the preferred way to work with Elliott anyway
2012-12-12 17:44:14 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks 
2012-12-12 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to remember to work with what the market gives us
2012-12-12 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be reasonable in our expectation
2012-12-12 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all know the background stories here
2012-12-12 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market doesn't care about it right now
2012-12-12 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it becomes weaker
2012-12-12 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can worry as well
2012-12-12 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until control
2012-12-12 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the news bothers you, turn it off
2012-12-12 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if your seeing the infamous Fiscal Clock click away on your screen
2012-12-12 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn it off
2012-12-12 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means nothing
2012-12-12 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's purpose is to deceive
2012-12-12 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading and reality only come together if they agree
2012-12-12 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can listen and agree with anyone's opinion
2012-12-12 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like many say...price is king
2012-12-12 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as money supports the current advance
2012-12-12 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to argue?
2012-12-12 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the question
2012-12-12 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-12-12 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...
2012-12-12 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want our money working for us at all times
2012-12-12 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to just sit there...we can do that in our cash account
2012-12-12 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving in...follow it
2012-12-12 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get the answers later
2012-12-12 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's moving out
2012-12-12 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow it...
2012-12-12 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember to reign in any bearish fundamentals as well
2012-12-12 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may mean something during that specific sequence
2012-12-12 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it might be something else giving the market indigestion
2012-12-12 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trade what you see...not what you feel
2012-12-12 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, hard to do
2012-12-12 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you get used to it
2012-12-12 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-12-12 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there's something else
2012-12-12 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-12-12 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening
2012-12-12 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again tomorrow
2012-12-12 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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