Chat - 12/12/12 - Technical Watch Forum

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 12/12/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,807

Posted 1355407101	Reply with quote #1

2012-12-12 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...good day? 2012-12-12 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hello hello helllo... 2012-12-12 16:00:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: hello! 2012-12-12 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: empty room 2012-12-12 16:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi Miss D 2012-12-12 16:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess we'll wait a bit for the stragglers 2012-12-12 16:01:12 [Message] MissD -> Chat: I guess everyone else forgot there was a chat today 2012-12-12 16:01:22 [Message] MissD -> Chat: or they are all out Christmas shopping 2012-12-12 16:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-12-12 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started 2012-12-12 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today 2012-12-12 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above the last week or so's bottoming formation at the 2012-12-12 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no real technical damage at this time 2012-12-12 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's +47 reading on the MCO, the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continued to move higher 2012-12-12 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's follow through 2012-12-12 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely now to see our next area of resistance at the +500 level 2012-12-12 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO also moved slightly lower today 2012-12-12 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too remains above the bottoming pattern of the last week 2012-12-12 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected 2012-12-12 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM still below the +500 level (+362) 2012-12-12 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices were not able to move above the September/October highs 2012-12-12 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might have had a near term exhaustion bar today as this was one of the ideas we played with yesterday 2012-12-12 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the case 2012-12-12 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be the beginning of our moving into our expected mid December low 2012-12-12 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should include moving tools, like the Open 10, back to at least neutral readings 2012-12-12 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally, back to "oversold" 2012-12-12 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would include, of course, a probable break of our complex pattern structure in the MCO 2012-12-12 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a move back to the zero line 2012-12-12 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should know more tomorrow 2012-12-12 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small snapback to the +25 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCO today 2012-12-12 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain on course with a date of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM's zero line 2012-12-12 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now right up to its pattern resistance levels of the two rounding tops we see in the MCSUM from the September/October period 2012-12-12 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be an important statement made by the bulls if we can clear these tops 2012-12-12 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the +250 level as well 2012-12-12 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will evidently take a break above this same MCSUM level so that the NDX price pattern can also take out its overhead resistance point of the 2700 level 2012-12-12 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe tomorrow...we'll see how that goes 2012-12-12 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to the top of the range on Tuesday 2012-12-12 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO pulled back a bit today 2012-12-12 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all within the confines of our expected complex MCO pattern sequence above the zero line 2012-12-12 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile, the SPX breadth MCSUM is now at the +300 level on its way towards +500 2012-12-12 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a minimal change today on the OEX breadth MCO 2012-12-12 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now cleared the +250 level today on the OEX breadth MCSUM with a reading of +305 2012-12-12 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a small pullback in the Dow breadth MCO 2012-12-12 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was a enough to push the Dow breadth MCSUM above its ledge resistance point that we talked about on Tuesday 2012-12-12 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did move below last weeks support area 2012-12-12 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MID breadth MCSUM now at the all important +500 level (+491) 2012-12-12 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we'll continue to ease off here 2012-12-12 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're getting ready to move up and through this important level of strength 2012-12-12 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday wise 2012-12-12 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved to our highest levels since the September all time highs 2012-12-12 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rest here to regroup might be in order given the work the bulls have done over the last month 2012-12-12 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected yesterday, with the SML breadth MCO not being able to improve on its gains on Tuesday, prices were not able to plow through the 470 level 2012-12-12 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a simple reversal bar was the result 2012-12-12 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this takes a day or two of back and fill before another attempt is made to move to higher highs 2012-12-12 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the SML breadth MCO breaking below last weeks lows today 2012-12-12 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the best index play for a possible "hit and run" short 2012-12-12 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the larger context of an advancing short term trend 2012-12-12 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be short and shallow 2012-12-12 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe finding ultimate support at the 460 level 2012-12-12 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side 2012-12-12 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could also be part of a simple snapback to the price consolidation pattern we saw prior to yesterday's breakout as well 2012-12-12 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO held up nicely today 2012-12-12 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains above Monday's lows 2012-12-12 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM breadth MCSUM continues to improve on its progress toward the +250 level 2012-12-12 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-12-12 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two point conversion by the bulls failed 2012-12-12 16:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bears will have their opportunity 2012-12-12 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see what kind of "kicker" the bulls have in their arsenal near term 2012-12-12 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether the kick will be deep in bear territory 2012-12-12 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a touch back 2012-12-12 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where the bears will probably have a couple of days of play to work with 2012-12-12 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NYSE CO volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE CO volume MCSUM plowed through its pattern resistance today 2012-12-12 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news 2012-12-12 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a small point change as well on the NYSE composite volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a bit of tension on the tape here 2012-12-12 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like indecision if anything else 2012-12-12 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was quite a statement by the FED 2012-12-12 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have chapter and verse of what their working with and looking at 2012-12-12 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, they don't think they will need to lift this current accomodative policy until 2015 2012-12-12 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if we can only get the banks to drop the Prime Rate...that would help immensely 2012-12-12 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts 2012-12-12 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit of a pullback as well on the NASDAQ volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is now above the +250 level with a +258 reading 2012-12-12 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the top at the end of September is keeping prices from moving significantly higher 2012-12-12 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least, minimally, breaking above the 3025 level where we have pattern consolidation in the beginning of November 2012-12-12 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small pullback as well on the NDX volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the NDX volume MCSUM is about 40 data points away from the +250 level 2012-12-12 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be a character moment for the bulls coming by Friday in their hope of holding +50 support on the NDX volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very light selling today 2012-12-12 16:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this shows up in the SPX volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the SPX volume MCSUM has cleared its +250 level 2012-12-12 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX data 2012-12-12 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX volume MCO having its own small point change 2012-12-12 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small positive reading today on the Dow volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control that pattern 2012-12-12 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had good follow through to the upside today on the MID volume MCSUM 2012-12-12 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can get the MID breadth MCSUM to agree, that should be enough to move the price pattern into all time highs 2012-12-12 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small move lower as well with the SML volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the TM volume MCO 2012-12-12 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's reading on the MCO 2012-12-12 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM volume MCSUM has now also cleared the +250 level today 2012-12-12 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-12-12 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what looked as though we might be looking at a day or two of pause here on the breadth side 2012-12-12 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume side is suggesting that today was one of those stealth days 2012-12-12 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: failing to hold the rally intraday 2012-12-12 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closing near the lows 2012-12-12 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will tend to keep the majority from moving into the market on the back on the FED announcement 2012-12-12 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as volume plurality remains bouyant as it is right now 2012-12-12 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will continue to be with the bulls 2012-12-12 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's always good to have the volume side leading breadth in the direction of the path of least resistance 2012-12-12 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do open lower on Thursday, it shouldn't last too long 2012-12-12 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the odds would favor a flat to up close if that happens 2012-12-12 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all "hit and run" for the bears right now 2012-12-12 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...nothing has changed that much from yesterday to today to warrant any kind of caution 2012-12-12 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look 2012-12-12 16:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we relieved much of the climactic behavior from yesterday with relative ease 2012-12-12 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow STVO and VTO now "overbought" 2012-12-12 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other VTO's now moving to or towards "overbought" extremes 2012-12-12 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .72 2012-12-12 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84 2012-12-12 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .76 2012-12-12 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85 2012-12-12 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .81 2012-12-12 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86 2012-12-12 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much change there from yesterday 2012-12-12 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-12-12 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken altogether 2012-12-12 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem to be a reasonable expectation that we're in the process of a simple price pattern snapback to last weeks trading range on the price chart 2012-12-12 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX 2012-12-12 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1420/1422 should provide support on the cash 2012-12-12 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 13,100 on the Dow 2012-12-12 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so enough to agitate the bears that we may have topped today with the FED announcement 2012-12-12 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the underlying strength 2012-12-12 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pullback here could be sharp and quick to meet these same downside pattern objectives 2012-12-12 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see, what else? 2012-12-12 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unweighted averages are showing much better strength here than the weighted ones 2012-12-12 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good omen 2012-12-12 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, by quite a bit 2012-12-12 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's the heavy weights that weighed down the price patterns today into the close it would seem 2012-12-12 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see these charts under the "unweighted indexes" link at the bottom of the DP page 2012-12-12 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions at all...recommendations?? 2012-12-12 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we have very little change from the previous day's work it's hard to add anything different 2012-12-12 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Futures are flat 2012-12-12 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look around my chart library 2012-12-12 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAR buy signal on the Euro today 2012-12-12 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 130 would confirm it 2012-12-12 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Yen is in free fall 2012-12-12 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strongest currencies right now are the Aussie and Canadian dollars 2012-12-12 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-12-12 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie Dollar is at multi year highs 2012-12-12 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the limited data from SC 2012-12-12 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe at all time highs 2012-12-12 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Aussie market is very strong right now 2012-12-12 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EWA 2012-12-12 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Austria and Belgium as well 2012-12-12 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of Europe 2012-12-12 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hong Kong 2012-12-12 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mexico 2012-12-12 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Italy is churning 2012-12-12 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is Spain 2012-12-12 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: So...Asian and European averages are firm here 2012-12-12 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Latin America, with the exception of Mexico, are weak 2012-12-12 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow Transports are once again at 5200 resistance 2012-12-12 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just can't seem to break above that level 2012-12-12 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Airlines are strong 2012-12-12 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Defense is firm 2012-12-12 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's Fed Statement, one could start to nibble at the PM stocks 2012-12-12 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Healthcare and Technology (we already knew that) 2012-12-12 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: China is waking up 2012-12-12 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Commodities are very soft here 2012-12-12 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trending sideways...waiting for the weather 2012-12-12 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good action on the Euro as mentioned earlier...you can trade it on FXE 2012-12-12 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the larger volume spike today on the upside 2012-12-12 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "clean" energy sector is getting good support here 2012-12-12 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though not in a bullish configuration as yet 2012-12-12 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PBW and PBD if you want to check them out 2012-12-12 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mixture global products are doing well 2012-12-12 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EAFE and BRIC 2012-12-12 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home Builders and Home Construction are in high level consolidation patterns waiting for the spring 2012-12-12 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with interest rates continuing to remain low, the real estate should continue to do fine for a while 2012-12-12 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about yesterday, the Industrial ETF's are doing very well here 2012-12-12 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYC closed at new recovery highs today 2012-12-12 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is something we didn't have in the summer rally 2012-12-12 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the NYA seemed to lag the entire time 2012-12-12 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's benefiting on the move in the NYSE breadth MCSUM 2012-12-12 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news 2012-12-12 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the packaged REITS are struggling here 2012-12-12 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting 2012-12-12 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Semi's are in the process of moving back up to the upper level of its ongoing trading range 2012-12-12 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it 2012-12-12 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts you get the feeling that the market wants to go higher, but it's being held down with some sort of weight 2012-12-12 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many sector ETF's it's been a struggle...like pulling teeth 2012-12-12 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if our idea of a mid December bottom still holds true 2012-12-12 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then after that, we should get a better rhythm to work with 2012-12-12 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the NYSE breadth and volume MCSUM's remain below their +500 level 2012-12-12 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have work to do before we can call the "all clear" 2012-12-12 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do close above the September/October highs 2012-12-12 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be able to stay there and improve from there 2012-12-12 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that time 2012-12-12 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher 2012-12-12 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation of seeing ourselves rally into January 2012-12-12 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more readings above +500 we get 2012-12-12 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can get comfortable in looking for the probably time for the actual top of the longer term sequence sometime in the April/May period 2012-12-12 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...steady as she goes 2012-12-12 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-12-12 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments...answers ??? 2012-12-12 17:26:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: In Elliott Wave terms, what kind of top do you think this longer term sequence will result in? A giant B wave, or something else? 2012-12-12 17:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we do have guidelines to help us 2012-12-12 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually if we have a B wave 2012-12-12 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the characteristic of something not being quite right 2012-12-12 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, overall, we do have both breadth and volume trends confirming this move 2012-12-12 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely a B wave 2012-12-12 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did, however, see high extremes in the MCO's over the last couple of weeks 2012-12-12 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some moving to new yearly highs 2012-12-12 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be consistent to a 3rd wave of one degree or the other in force 2012-12-12 17:29:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I know a lot of technicians think we top in a B wave and then go down in C wave to complete the pattern from 2008 2012-12-12 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...fourth waves generally retrace back to the starting point of wave two on the MCO 2012-12-12 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't see that this past week 2012-12-12 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we held well above the zero line 2012-12-12 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one option then 2012-12-12 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are finishing a simple 5 wave structure to the upside 2012-12-12 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what would be wave 1 2012-12-12 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with wave 2 starting today (maybe) 2012-12-12 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a larger 3rd wave sometime in January 2012-12-12 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if I'm so bright on that idea 2012-12-12 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-12-12 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to your statement 2012-12-12 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliotticians can have all the ideas they want 2012-12-12 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless the internals confirm the structure 2012-12-12 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more of an emotional play 2012-12-12 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would fully fit the structure right now 2012-12-12 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are very few who actually believe that we continue to rally in the face of cliffs and debt 2012-12-12 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so they "decide" to give it a B label 2012-12-12 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way they can continue to believe in their corrective idea 2012-12-12 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-12-12 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be better served 2012-12-12 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fit both the internals and their inconsistencies as it would apple to the amplitude 2012-12-12 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be an X wave 2012-12-12 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get good internal characteristics 2012-12-12 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it fails because of something fundamental holds back the pattern 2012-12-12 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pattern of hope...after seeing a violent shake out like we had in November 2012-12-12 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the problem with Elliott 2012-12-12 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the old days there weren't a lot of folks giving their counts and opinions on the market 2012-12-12 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you get too many analysis trading off the same idea 2012-12-12 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't happen 2012-12-12 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now 2012-12-12 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have discussed many times 2012-12-12 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall sentiment remains quite negative 2012-12-12 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this feeds the bullish advance 2012-12-12 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single day we see a Cliff Clock 2012-12-12 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really 2012-12-12 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't a set deadline to all of this 2012-12-12 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been a fabrication of the media 2012-12-12 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we, as emotional humans who tend to panic when we either can't control or understand something 2012-12-12 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take this all in and react accordingly 2012-12-12 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile 2012-12-12 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been long, on balance, since the MCSUM turned up Thanksgiving week 2012-12-12 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why? 2012-12-12 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we knew that we couldn't have more than 1 ledge and 1 fishhook in a single declining MCSUM sequence 2012-12-12 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was an easy play once the MCSUM turned 2012-12-12 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-12-12 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to monitor things here 2012-12-12 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look forward for the final ingredient that would give us the "all clear" 2012-12-12 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is to get the MCSUM's above the pivotal +500 level 2012-12-12 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can do that 2012-12-12 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it really won't matter what is or isn't agreed upon in DC 2012-12-12 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides 2012-12-12 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the Congress 2012-12-12 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can adjust and change anything they want at any time 2012-12-12 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there the market is figuring that there will be something to settle on 2012-12-12 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they will "promise us" that after the new Congress is sworn in, and the President takes the oath of office, then the real work will begin 2012-12-12 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime 2012-12-12 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will believe and continue to flow into the one asset class that produces a return higher than 2% 2012-12-12 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's stocks 2012-12-12 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it doesn't have to be a fundamental basis to invest in what has turned into a commodity 2012-12-12 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move higher 2012-12-12 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED's spigot is not only wide open 2012-12-12 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they have thrown away the valve key 2012-12-12 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the world is doing the same 2012-12-12 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues 2012-12-12 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bad news will be absorbed 2012-12-12 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll continue to show a longer term pattern of bottoms above bottoms 2012-12-12 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we have now 2012-12-12 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually... 2012-12-12 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to all time highs 2012-12-12 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't help but do so 2012-12-12 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as far as Elliott labeling is concerned 2012-12-12 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would put it on the back burner for now until we get some sort of indication from the internals that a change in this current trend can indeed happen 2012-12-12 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a bad thing to be able to label something after the fact 2012-12-12 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it's probably the preferred way to work with Elliott anyway 2012-12-12 17:44:14 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks 2012-12-12 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to remember to work with what the market gives us 2012-12-12 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be reasonable in our expectation 2012-12-12 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all know the background stories here 2012-12-12 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market doesn't care about it right now 2012-12-12 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it becomes weaker 2012-12-12 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can worry as well 2012-12-12 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then...cruise control 2012-12-12 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the news bothers you, turn it off 2012-12-12 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if your seeing the infamous Fiscal Clock click away on your screen 2012-12-12 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn it off 2012-12-12 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means nothing 2012-12-12 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's purpose is to deceive 2012-12-12 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading and reality only come together if they agree 2012-12-12 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can listen and agree with anyone's opinion 2012-12-12 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like many say...price is king 2012-12-12 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as money supports the current advance 2012-12-12 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to argue? 2012-12-12 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the question 2012-12-12 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-12-12 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line... 2012-12-12 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want our money working for us at all times 2012-12-12 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to just sit there...we can do that in our cash account 2012-12-12 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving in...follow it 2012-12-12 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get the answers later 2012-12-12 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's moving out 2012-12-12 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow it... 2012-12-12 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember to reign in any bearish fundamentals as well 2012-12-12 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may mean something during that specific sequence 2012-12-12 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it might be something else giving the market indigestion 2012-12-12 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just trade what you see...not what you *feel* 2012-12-12 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, hard to do 2012-12-12 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you get used to it 2012-12-12 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that 2012-12-12 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there's something else 2012-12-12 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off 2012-12-12 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening 2012-12-12 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again tomorrow 2012-12-12 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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