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Posts: 5,135
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-12-11 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-12-11 16:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-12-11 16:02:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, and you?
2014-12-11 16:02:32 [Message] dan_d64 -> Chat: ISEE was jaw dropping low all day.
2014-12-11 16:03:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great 
2014-12-11 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2014-12-11 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closed at 54
2014-12-11 16:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm doing's RAINING! [smile]
2014-12-11 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-12-11 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...then let's get SC up and get going then!
2014-12-11 16:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to the -50 level on Wednesday
2014-12-11 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO bounced off this natural line of support today
2014-12-11 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bounce so far as been that of a the "dead cat" variety
2014-12-11 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with not a lot of conviction behind it
2014-12-11 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO MCO components
2014-12-11 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we had a somewhat obligatory bounce day today as the 5% Trend hit the zero line yesterday
2014-12-11 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we see with the 10% Trend
2014-12-11 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't enough to push this indicator back toward the zero line
2014-12-11 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the textural sequence of lower highs and lower lows in the MCO itself
2014-12-11 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with this feeble attempt to bounce
2014-12-11 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that another new low might be in the cards for Friday
2014-12-11 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, given the very low put to call numbers in the ISEE
2014-12-11 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be enough to provide a tradable bottom
2014-12-11 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where Wednesday we didn't see the follow through that was necessary for this same call
2014-12-11 16:10:34 [Message] dan_d64 -> Chat: It seems a lower low is coming, but not that much lower.
2014-12-11 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been, so far, well contained
2014-12-11 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we look at the price action of the small caps
2014-12-11 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon on Tuesday
2014-12-11 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the large caps providing the meat of the rally into November
2014-12-11 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the only way for them to relieve this same "overbought" situation that was created
2014-12-11 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a good scare is needed for things to be put back into proper "alignment"
2014-12-11 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that with yesterday's sell off
2014-12-11 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved down and through the +500 level on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, as we know from past experience, can promote a "reaction" in the markets
2014-12-11 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a reaction was seen
2014-12-11 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see an echo of what we saw in the CO data
2014-12-11 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bounce off the -50 level in the MCO
2014-12-11 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a move down and through the +500 level in the MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have to acknowledge though
2014-12-11 16:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this decline in the MCSUM took place after a failed attempt to move above the line drawn on the cumulative charts at horizontal resistance at the +600 level
2014-12-11 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from which needed to be broken in order for the NYA itself to move to new all time highs
2014-12-11 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we failed to do this
2014-12-11 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rally failure is seen in the NYA index itself
2014-12-11 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2014-12-11 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have an inside range day today in this index
2014-12-11 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with Wednesday's lower close
2014-12-11 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest a higher close for Friday
2014-12-11 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can be 1 point or 100
2014-12-11 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that we close higher on the day
2014-12-11 16:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliottician's will note that the decline from late November has a distinct 3 wave structure to it
2014-12-11 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be corrective sequence of A-B-C
2014-12-11 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could be a finishing in 1-2-3-4-5 of C
2014-12-11 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2014-12-11 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be an impulse
2014-12-11 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the current internals, however
2014-12-11 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the impulse is given the lesser of odds right now
2014-12-11 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many of the high cap MCSUM's are still well above the +500 level
2014-12-11 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would indicate that we're still in store for new highs before we'll actually see a turn
2014-12-11 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the corrective nature we have between the MCO's and their respective components being on either side of their zero lines
2014-12-11 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the corrective sequence remains our best option
2014-12-11 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when this correction is based on news
2014-12-11 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and news that is very old
2014-12-11 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know that oil had topped back in late June
2014-12-11 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only NOW people are thinking that the market is in a topping phase after being down some $40 a barrel?
2014-12-11 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely
2014-12-11 16:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ
2014-12-11 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the price volatility of the last 3 days is beginning to narrow in its range
2014-12-11 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is part and parcel of a symmetrical triangle
2014-12-11 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain with solid support at the 4650 level
2014-12-11 16:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with is 58 points from today's close
2014-12-11 16:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can still test this objective and remain in a corrective sequence
2014-12-11 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-12-11 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the sell off yesterday did not have the same intensity as we saw in the NYSE group of stocks
2014-12-11 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be a bullish indication that the growth sector is being supported during this same pause in the pattern
2014-12-11 16:25:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: This summation is also in a potential rally failure situation, no?
2014-12-11 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably on the idea that with lower oil prices, the cost of money can remain low as well since there will be no inflationary problems
2014-12-11 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not really
2014-12-11 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the first step of MCSUM failure is a decline from above the +500 level
2014-12-11 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a zero line test and rally
2014-12-11 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a failure and rollover from below the +250 level
2014-12-11 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we have already moved to -800
2014-12-11 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's more of a exhaustion move
2014-12-11 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within a large bearish intermediate trend
2014-12-11 16:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as money flow goes
2014-12-11 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2014-12-11 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that back in 2000
2014-12-11 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NASDAQ was rallying some 1300 points in the last 4 months of its historic top
2014-12-11 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM spent all of its time moving sideways BELOW its zero line
2014-12-11 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is now as it was then
2014-12-11 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the rally we're seeing here has more to do with the top 100 stocks than it does the broader market that makes up the NASDAQ
2014-12-11 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a 4 year cycle basis
2014-12-11 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be highly consistent to the 2 years that follow the initiation of a bull move
2014-12-11 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though that we do have in general though
2014-12-11 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have had a historic run of seeing all of the MCSUM's stay above their zero lines for over a year
2014-12-11 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has never been seen before
2014-12-11 16:29:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I guess the rally failure was the last summation top, yes, just don't care for stopping before 250, I guess Thanks for the perspective
2014-12-11 16:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think...reasonably speaking...that to provide some balance that we should see the MCSUM remain below the zero line for an extended period
2014-12-11 16:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this did not happen out of the October lows
2014-12-11 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was a "failure to succeed" as a rally failure as you mentioned
2014-12-11 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not of a MCSUM failure which has longer term ramifications
2014-12-11 16:30:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-12-11 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2014-12-11 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when working with breadth dynamics
2014-12-11 16:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're trying to do is work with a concept that is very much like working with a pendulum
2014-12-11 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it moves back and forth
2014-12-11 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves moves out
2014-12-11 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trick then is to know not only which way the pendulum is moving
2014-12-11 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also at what velocity its moving
2014-12-11 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like those clacking balls
2014-12-11 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you pull from one end
2014-12-11 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it generates energy within the other balls to where the opposite ball reacts
2014-12-11 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the degree of momentum...the higher the opposite ball will move
2014-12-11 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the large caps
2014-12-11 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money was being moved in at an accelerated rate
2014-12-11 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ, and especially the small caps, not as much as the large caps
2014-12-11 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but growth IS still being supported by money
2014-12-11 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the bulls need now is for growth to take a more better positive role in all this with lower rates and energy prices
2014-12-11 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll have quite a rally on our hands
2014-12-11 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2014-12-11 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense is suggesting that this is some sort of cycle low
2014-12-11 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're not getting a uniform shake out
2014-12-11 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with larger cycles evidently pointing higher
2014-12-11 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lesser time period low is doing all it can to nest
2014-12-11 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this correct
2014-12-11 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then once this nesting is complete
2014-12-11 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a VERY strong rally out of this soon as next week
2014-12-11 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today "felt like" a false start
2014-12-11 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow reflexing higher by 200 points
2014-12-11 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then losing all of its momentum during the day
2014-12-11 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we had lower lows in the MCO on Tuesday
2014-12-11 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing to support this kind of advance
2014-12-11 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the loss of this same momentum does make sense
2014-12-11 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX
2014-12-11 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NDX breadth MCO moved to highly "oversold" levels on Wednesday with a -77 reading
2014-12-11 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a good call by Lew on that one!
2014-12-11 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice too how the NDX 10% component bounced off its zero line today
2014-12-11 16:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% component remains well above its zero line
2014-12-11 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given this current internal configuration
2014-12-11 16:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that we had a nice capitulation on Wednesday in this group of stocks
2014-12-11 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the dust finally clears
2014-12-11 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a sharp snapback to or toward the MCO zero line by early next week
2014-12-11 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's now back to what was previous overhead resistance over the last year
2014-12-11 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a technical snapback is now complete with a the MCO moving to highly "oversold" levels
2014-12-11 16:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-12-11 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would now take a lower low in the NDX volume MCO to break below this same line of previous overhead resistance
2014-12-11 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that happened
2014-12-11 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we would have a more extended corrective process that would last for the rest of the month and into the beginning of next year
2014-12-11 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far..indications continue to suggest that the opposite is going to happen
2014-12-11 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until "proven otherwise", we'll go with what we have currently to work with
2014-12-11 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the SPX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: including the bounce today off the zero line with the 10% component
2014-12-11 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually during strong trending sequences
2014-12-11 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this test of zero for the faster moving 19 day EMA provides enough of an "airing out" to provide a new platform for prices to continue within its rising structure
2014-12-11 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much the same thing we see during bear trends only that the zero line test is made from below this same line of neutrality between buyers and sellers
2014-12-11 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth data is also showing this same characteristic
2014-12-11 16:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a point in which money has exhausted itself during a counter trend move
2014-12-11 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is for the zero line to hold...and this should provide enough support to see further cumulative gains in the flow of money
2014-12-11 16:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same thing with the Dow data
2014-12-11 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also note a deeply "oversold" breadth MCO at the -96 level on Wednesday
2014-12-11 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now trying to find support at the +1500 level on the breadth MCSUM
2014-12-11 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the last couple of MCSUM's
2014-12-11 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to turn the tide from up to down now is to see enough money leaving to where these breadth MCO's can move to below their October lows
2014-12-11 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be done?
2014-12-11 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2014-12-11 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be done?
2014-12-11 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely
2014-12-11 16:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for now
2014-12-11 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is just too much liquidity in these same high cap stocks to see them lose all interest
2014-12-11 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus you have strong support over in Europe right now
2014-12-11 16:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ's cousin, the DAX, having moved to new all time highs last Friday
2014-12-11 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only be done if there is more than enough liquidity to allow prices to rise as much as they have
2014-12-11 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this same liquidity will continue to cushion any and all surprises that might pop up for the next couple of weeks as well
2014-12-11 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true...yesterday can't be called a "shallow" decline by any means
2014-12-11 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about on Tuesday
2014-12-11 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there is consistent pressure on this basketball in the deep end of the swimming pool
2014-12-11 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball will pop up violently once this pressure is released
2014-12-11 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you saw this at the open today
2014-12-11 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-12-11 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball eventually floated on the surface with no new stimulus to drive it in either direction
2014-12-11 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2014-12-11 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we saw a more shallow spike to around the -50 level on Wednesday
2014-12-11 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that most of the selling yesterday came with the high cap stocks
2014-12-11 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably why the NYSE TRIN was so high on Wednesday at 3.48
2014-12-11 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the rest of the MCO charts
2014-12-11 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we break above the declining tops line that we've been working with over the last 2 weeks
2014-12-11 16:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers will remain in control of things on a short term trending basis
2014-12-11 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have to admire the way that the MID and NASDAQ are not confirming the rate in which money is moving out of equities compared to the NYSE group of stocks
2014-12-11 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this non confirmation is a whisper that the decline is more correctional in nature than it is a turn in the trend
2014-12-11 17:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have many years of data that shows us that when the turn comes, either up or down, it's usually those issues that are "less deserving" that lead the way during trending sequences
2014-12-11 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the SML breadth MCO
2014-12-11 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it didn't even move below -30 yesterday
2014-12-11 17:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lack of selling continues to keep the price index itself locked within a trading range
2014-12-11 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a range that has now lasted about 3 weeks
2014-12-11 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a range like this
2014-12-11 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see in the SML breadth MCO what needs to happen for prices to breakout
2014-12-11 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either a move above the +25 level for an upside break
2014-12-11 17:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a move below the -50 level for a downside resolution
2014-12-11 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until one of these takes place
2014-12-11 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're stuck
2014-12-11 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCO below its zero line
2014-12-11 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components above its zero line
2014-12-11 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's only one thing prices can do when they're being pushed and pull...they chop
2014-12-11 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there you have it
2014-12-11 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking then at the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-12-11 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we see a downward slope to the pattern
2014-12-11 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the individual postings are showing that the sellers have no real control right now based on the congestion seen in the chart
2014-12-11 17:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are being met by buyers to absorb this same selling
2014-12-11 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues...we chop
2014-12-11 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have no trend
2014-12-11 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really doesn't take a rocket scientist to know why prices in the small caps continue to move sideways as it has
2014-12-11 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's because...
2014-12-11 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is being indecisive as to its direction
2014-12-11 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM above its zero line
2014-12-11 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance lies with the buyers
2014-12-11 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why we had such a hard and quick snapback to the top of the range on Tuesday
2014-12-11 17:08:06 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: could this be money rotating within this basket of issues from less desirable to more desirable ones?
2014-12-11 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2014-12-11 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is always searching out areas of undervaluation
2014-12-11 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the best way I can put it
2014-12-11 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money knows what money likes and money likes to make more money
2014-12-11 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so during these kinds of corrections
2014-12-11 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the ongoing trend is not violated in any way
2014-12-11 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're actually seeing money rotate from one area to another
2014-12-11 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it's internally
2014-12-11 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes its from one sector to another
2014-12-11 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes its from one asset class to another
2014-12-11 17:10:24 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: makes sense...thanks
2014-12-11 17:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main point is that this rotation has a direct correlation to the eventual direction of where prices are likely to go and lies with the direction in which money is TRENDING
2014-12-11 17:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right's sagging
2014-12-11 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "bad guys" are trying to take the advantage away from the "good guys"
2014-12-11 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like one team trying to get the ball away from the other team in a football game
2014-12-11 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they get the ball
2014-12-11 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move it down the field
2014-12-11 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a couple of running plays
2014-12-11 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then they pass on 3rd Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and make a completion
2014-12-11 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then they fumble the ball today
2014-12-11 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now it's up to the buyers to drive the ball
2014-12-11 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call the afternoon session a loss of yardage
2014-12-11 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow morning it's 3rd down
2014-12-11 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they convert
2014-12-11 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of Friday will be a positive one
2014-12-11 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the sellers stop them at the open
2014-12-11 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will lose the ball
2014-12-11 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all a game
2014-12-11 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back and forth we go
2014-12-11 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side taking control and attempting to score
2014-12-11 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other provides little in the way of defense
2014-12-11 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Total Market
2014-12-11 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a more pressing problem for the bulls
2014-12-11 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both MCO components here have moved back below their zero line now
2014-12-11 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's bounce only being able to push the 5% back to a zero line snapback
2014-12-11 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing saving an all out bearish resolution to this is that the TM breadth MCO was only able to move down to the -40 level on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, when we put this altogether, tells us that the TM AD line is actually moving lower right now
2014-12-11 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since both it's components are below their zero line
2014-12-11 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us that the direction of the 19 day and 39 day EMA's that measure this same AD line are moving lower
2014-12-11 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they're moving lower...then that can only happen if the AD line itself is moving either sideways to lower
2014-12-11 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart action though
2014-12-11 17:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now completed, and found support at, the previous all time highs
2014-12-11 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we're indecisive here
2014-12-11 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is enough support to keep prices from breaking this same level from which there were an exhaustion of buyers previously
2014-12-11 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a negative here is that the TM breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +250 level today
2014-12-11 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any follow through on Friday will suggest that a trip back to the zero line is indicated there
2014-12-11 17:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-12-11 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a quite a shake out on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which there was an outside chance of this taking place given that the volume McClellan's were looking weaker on Tuesday than their breadth counterparts
2014-12-11 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and least us not forget that yesterday was Wild Wooley Wednesday...the Wednesday before the week of this months OPEX which some believe is when futures and options traders move out of their current month positions roll over into March
2014-12-11 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sectors
2014-12-11 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO also moved to highly "oversold" on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% Trend found support at its zero line
2014-12-11 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...we look corrective there
2014-12-11 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO also moved to deeply "oversold" on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and had a nice sharp reversal off these same lows today
2014-12-11 17:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move here above the -40 level in this MCO will then indicate that a price bottom is likely behind us
2014-12-11 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a full zero line snapback would be the next technical expectation
2014-12-11 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE continues to unwind nicely
2014-12-11 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now met our downside target of $76
2014-12-11 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCO
2014-12-11 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we also have the potential now of bull divergence in place
2014-12-11 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any move now back above the XLE breadth MCO zero line confirming this same divergence
2014-12-11 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like magic
2014-12-11 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now back to our downside target as well on the XLE breadth MCSUM at around the -1000 level
2014-12-11 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any confirmed divergence here
2014-12-11 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would turn up the MCSUM providing bull divergence there as well
2014-12-11 17:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should have a nice multi month rally because of it
2014-12-11 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is important information because of the timing of yesterday's market decline being blamed on this sectors inability to perform
2014-12-11 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is pretty consistent to how bottoms are usually created
2014-12-11 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind as well
2014-12-11 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's been this sectors weakness that has really kept the BETS from moving out of its current neutral reading for the last 3 months
2014-12-11 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of strength here is sure to be an overall positive to our extending higher from current levels
2014-12-11 17:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the one sector to watch now
2014-12-11 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it will the market
2014-12-11 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all downside targets now met
2014-12-11 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the time to look for a change in trend
2014-12-11 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliotticians out there
2014-12-11 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have 5 wave down
2014-12-11 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me do a quick calculation
2014-12-11 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this wasn't enough to work with
2014-12-11 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 5, the current decline, is exactly .618 x the length of wave 3 at $76.64
2014-12-11 17:33:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2014-12-11 17:33:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Amazing
2014-12-11 17:33:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we are watching the XLE closely in my room for a bottom
2014-12-11 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when we have several technical angles suggesting "something different", it probably is
2014-12-11 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment can't get any worse
2014-12-11 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk of $50 and $40 oil have been mentioned every day for a week now
2014-12-11 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best part
2014-12-11 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for some reason
2014-12-11 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower oil prices is somehow bearish
2014-12-11 17:34:43 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: got into the $58's this evening
2014-12-11 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't understand why it's bearish to have more money to spend on other things
2014-12-11 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe that's me
2014-12-11 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be another clue
2014-12-11 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember when the XLE was at its depth in October
2014-12-11 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and oil continued to move lower
2014-12-11 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the index didn't?
2014-12-11 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this happens again...lower oil with prices in the XLE hanging at these levels
2014-12-11 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's another feather to work with
2014-12-11 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving us more confidence to, in essence, pick a bottom
2014-12-11 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the 10% Trend in the XLE is overdone
2014-12-11 17:37:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when we bottom, it's a nice place for mom
2014-12-11 17:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get above the 200're technically extended
2014-12-11 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-12-11 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-12-11 17:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move above today's intraday highs would be a buy point on a charting basis
2014-12-11 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a stop at Wednesday's intraday lows
2014-12-11 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-12-11 17:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that since the MCSUM is still deeply "oversold"
2014-12-11 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely we're going to rocket out of a bottom here
2014-12-11 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to build
2014-12-11 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the majority has now been conditioned to look elsewhere
2014-12-11 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 42% from the highs is quite a hair cut
2014-12-11 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and proudly said
2014-12-11 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one sector in which we have been able to call so precisely this year that it's scary
2014-12-11 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's only because
2014-12-11 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the impulses here have been very clean
2014-12-11 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could write a book on TA with this years price action in the XLE alone
2014-12-11 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2014-12-11 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF remains in a profit taking mode
2014-12-11 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little selling right now
2014-12-11 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just being caught up in all the panic of the last couple of days it would seem
2014-12-11 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO also moved to minimal "oversold" levels as well yesterday
2014-12-11 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains in a corrective configuration
2014-12-11 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI also moved to "oversold" levels on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLI breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +1000 level
2014-12-11 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action in the XLB looks toppy
2014-12-11 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals are suggesting that it's in the process of regrouping
2014-12-11 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll watch the $47 level there for clues moving forward
2014-12-11 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO also moved to "oversold" levels on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we see here that the 10% component also found support at its zero line
2014-12-11 17:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after moving to new intraday all time highs yesterday
2014-12-11 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a large trading range price bar today in the XLU
2014-12-11 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be surprised to see new all time price highs sooner than later here
2014-12-11 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we see a nice series of bottoms above bottoms supporting the XLU breadth MCO pattern
2014-12-11 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-11 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sectors that we cover all look corrective right now
2014-12-11 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many showing a lack of follow through selling coming into the market
2014-12-11 17:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-12-11 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing more in the profit taking area than anything else
2014-12-11 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once this pause has passed
2014-12-11 17:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see new highs in many of these same sectors helping to drive the general market highs
2014-12-11 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's all moved to climactic levels on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting a price low within 2 trading days
2014-12-11 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is day one
2014-12-11 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are close to being uniformly "oversold"
2014-12-11 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX and Dow already there
2014-12-11 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now meet the minimal expectation of relieving the "overbought" condition in the VTO's
2014-12-11 17:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the trend continues to be strong
2014-12-11 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see support at the +20 level...with an outside chance of the zero line
2014-12-11 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that would induce a different strategy
2014-12-11 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch +20 for now
2014-12-11 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.04
2014-12-11 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we noted earlier that it made it to around a 3.48 reading on Wednesday
2014-12-11 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's well beyond the magical 2.00 reading that necessary for a corrective bottom within an advancing trend
2014-12-11 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 digging even lower now at 1.21
2014-12-11 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-12-11 17:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this kind of reading
2014-12-11 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for the sellers to keep prices moving lower
2014-12-11 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and along with the ISEE numbers
2014-12-11 17:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is now screaming that a major bottom is being created
2014-12-11 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the 21 day and 55 day SMA's of the NYSE TRIN are also "oversold" now
2014-12-11 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are within 2% of all time highs?
2014-12-11 17:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing stuff
2014-12-11 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2014-12-11 17:55:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I wouldn't mind seeing a quick 5th with a high, but divergent TRIN here...
2014-12-11 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2014-12-11 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-12-11 17:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-12-11 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting this vibe that this is some sort of cycle low
2014-12-11 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't been working with cycles that much lately
2014-12-11 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there is something out there being talked about, please share it
2014-12-11 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of reminds me of a 20 week low in the 9 month cycle
2014-12-11 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey
2014-12-11 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about?
2014-12-11 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been close to 10 weeks since the mid October lows
2014-12-11 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could the October lows been the 9 month lows?
2014-12-11 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't think so
2014-12-11 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the small caps and NASDAQ would be leading out of the low
2014-12-11 17:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just thinking out loud here
2014-12-11 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .76
2014-12-11 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2014-12-11 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-12-11 17:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting indications here that some sort of capitulation may had taken place on Wednesday
2014-12-11 18:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a high TRIN, along with negative sentiment on the highest weighted stocks in major indices (energy) suggesting a low is near, could all point to a major price low from where we'll see prices move sharply higher into the end of the year
2014-12-11 18:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though
2014-12-11 18:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a little clean up work to do before this could happen
2014-12-11 18:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2014-12-11 18:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's be a bit cautious here into Monday
2014-12-11 18:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow the dust to clear
2014-12-11 18:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we should have many, if not all of our near term questions answered
2014-12-11 18:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-12-11 18:01:41 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: none here....thank you again
2014-12-11 18:01:47 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2014-12-11 18:01:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks for the WWW info. these will be noted on the calendar from now on
2014-12-11 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next one is January 7th
2014-12-11 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way
2014-12-11 18:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beginning next month
2014-12-11 18:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be traveling to trade shows for the first four months of the year
2014-12-11 18:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first one is January 22nd
2014-12-11 18:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway - the chat schedules will be adjusted to fit around these shows
2014-12-11 18:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so please be sure to note them on your calendar
2014-12-11 18:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Lew...
2014-12-11 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Vegas is in March
2014-12-11 18:03:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: which one is Vegas? LOL
2014-12-11 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-12-11 18:03:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2014-12-11 18:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beat you to it!
2014-12-11 18:04:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-12-11 18:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: March 19th I think
2014-12-11 18:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2014-12-11 18:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: March 23-25
2014-12-11 18:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right after OPEX
2014-12-11 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are relatively new
2014-12-11 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has been a lot of market history when I go to Vegas
2014-12-11 18:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it's a market high
2014-12-11 18:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it's a market low
2014-12-11 18:05:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2014-12-11 18:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll talk more about that sometime next year
2014-12-11 18:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-12-11 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-12-11 18:06:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-12-11 18:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-12-11 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again next Tuesday
2014-12-11 18:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-12-11 18:06:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You too
2014-12-11 18:07:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night All

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