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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-12-01 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-12-01 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-12-01 16:00:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, thx.
2011-12-01 16:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite an exciting couple of days
2011-12-01 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-12-01 16:02:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, fixed absolutely nada, LOL
2011-12-01 16:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would think
2011-12-01 16:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did get a surprise today though
2011-12-01 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in at an all time record low of 50 today
2011-12-01 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means the specs are buying puts hand over paw here
2011-12-01 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or someone knows something and is making a very large bet
2011-12-01 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either way, it puts a floor below us for tomorrow
2011-12-01 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so we moved up and above blip resistance areas yesterday
2011-12-01 16:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in many cases
2011-12-01 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also moved above the declining tops line controlling many of the breadth MCO patterns as well
2011-12-01 16:06:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, that overnight action implies something wicked this way comes to me...
2011-12-01 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the large robust move of a break out was part of what we felt yesterday
2011-12-01 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tonight?
2011-12-01 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures are flat here
2011-12-01 16:06:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, the overnight fed related pump
2011-12-01 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2011-12-01 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gotcha
2011-12-01 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't know how much it's going to help here
2011-12-01 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's quite telling that even the Swiss were involved with the goosing this time around
2011-12-01 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much all of the MCO's snapped back to their zero lines yesterday
2011-12-01 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some sort of move lower would be the expectation for today
2011-12-01 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let me get DP up and we'll see how things went "the day after"
2011-12-01 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a -3 reading yesterday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO did indeed move lower today
2011-12-01 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this translate into the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM also continuing to move lower...and doing so below the zero line
2011-12-01 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today with a -59 reading
2011-12-01 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the bulls after this perceived day of pause to pick up again quickly, or as we talked about on Tuesday or we could see a downside acceleration occur
2011-12-01 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-12-01 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that neither the 10% or 5% Trends made it above their zero line yesterday
2011-12-01 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain on a cross over sell signal as well
2011-12-01 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Index did find resistance at the 5% and moved lower today
2011-12-01 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain on a sell signal here
2011-12-01 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing at all suggesting "corrective activity"
2011-12-01 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...sometimes in this business you have to wonder after having the NYA move up some 600 points on how in the world can this be considered corrective activity
2011-12-01 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer is...well..there are times in which a highly volatile market can make it seem like something else is going on when it isn't
2011-12-01 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I mentioned yesterday in one of the threads over at TT
2011-12-01 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high volatility should never be misconstrued as something constructive
2011-12-01 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high volatility is a sign of a market place that has no real direction because of the absence of structure
2011-12-01 16:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2011-12-01 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of what we witnessed over the last couple of days was pretty much an equal and opposite effect of last weeks unwinding process
2011-12-01 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a tide comes to shore, it tends to pull out just as quickly
2011-12-01 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the arm in the bathtub analogy
2011-12-01 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you make sweeping motions with your arm at the tub of the water line
2011-12-01 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: water will move one way and then back with approximately the same amount of momentum
2011-12-01 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's pretty much what we got
2011-12-01 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we wait and see if we've completed this push and pull effect
2011-12-01 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-12-01 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's move lower in the CO breadth MCO
2011-12-01 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we have indeed apexed here
2011-12-01 16:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should be moving in the other direction now over the next couple of days
2011-12-01 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the composite NYSE breadth MCO agrees or not
2011-12-01 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has
2011-12-01 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by the smallest of margins in relation to the prior 3 days
2011-12-01 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, today's move lower was enough to move the NYSE breadth MCSUM to a lower low
2011-12-01 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would lessen the chance of the bulls moving back above the zero line here for tomorrow
2011-12-01 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't throw it out the window either as the pullback from zero was a rather shallow event
2011-12-01 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-12-01 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside objective of the zero line remains our short term target here on the MCSUM
2011-12-01 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should be reached within a week
2011-12-01 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the components that make up this MCO are also having their problems moving back above their zero line as well
2011-12-01 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while the NYSE breadth MCO did move above its declining tops line yesterday
2011-12-01 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components declining tops line remains intact here
2011-12-01 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we don't actually have a confirmation as yet that there has been enough buyers here as yet to offset the previous weeks worth of sellers
2011-12-01 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those who may use this as one of their proxies as a turn in the tide
2011-12-01 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really don't have all the information at their fingertips to make such a call...yet
2011-12-01 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could change tomorrow
2011-12-01 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's kind of internal divergence that usually wins out when we're attempting to understand market mechanics
2011-12-01 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-12-01 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only categorize the last couple days of rally as just a technical reflex
2011-12-01 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided an excellent exit point for those who may be following the sell signal given by the BETS indicator last weekend
2011-12-01 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's put it another way that may make more sense
2011-12-01 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that Monday's reflex was a simple technical expectation after becoming deeply "oversold"
2011-12-01 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem there
2011-12-01 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday provided our pause in the pattern
2011-12-01 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about at that time
2011-12-01 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our not being able to move above our blip resistance points on the various MCO's
2011-12-01 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls needed to step up quickly or they were likely to lose any chance of keeping prices from testing the August price lows
2011-12-01 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until 8:10 in the morning, with the Dow futures down 65 points, it started to look like that the bulls going to lose their power here
2011-12-01 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the "announcement"
2011-12-01 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...here's the question
2011-12-01 16:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market only retraced .382 and maybe up to .50 of the prior decline
2011-12-01 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO provided this same snapback
2011-12-01 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would your opinion of the market be different?
2011-12-01 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can probably answer this question as a yes
2011-12-01 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it would have followed not only our blueprint here
2011-12-01 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would have followed a technical expectation of what usually happens during these times when relief rallies take place
2011-12-01 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "announcement" (which we will refer to in that form moving forward) provided the proverbial "thumb on the scale" that allowed the market to go beyond what would normally be expected
2011-12-01 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was an exception
2011-12-01 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a rule
2011-12-01 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the context here is important
2011-12-01 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the TA here is still working
2011-12-01 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2011-12-01 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also know
2011-12-01 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the SPX move up 100 points in 3 days IS an exception to historical standards
2011-12-01 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can be very sure here
2011-12-01 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market will correct this excess as well
2011-12-01 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably just as quickly
2011-12-01 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just as without too much warning as well
2011-12-01 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is not the time to be a buyer
2011-12-01 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a time to take profits
2011-12-01 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be ready to position in the direction of whatever trend develops
2011-12-01 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the current market
2011-12-01 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still going to take several weeks to take place
2011-12-01 16:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we STILL need a foundation textural pattern in the MCO to take place before a rising price structure has any chance of keeping intact
2011-12-01 16:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even for the scalpers out there
2011-12-01 16:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a tough market this week
2011-12-01 16:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but short to intermediate term strategies...nothing has changed
2011-12-01 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2011-12-01 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market tells us otherwise, we will not fight what the market says
2011-12-01 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be candid here
2011-12-01 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did discuss what the overall likelihood will be for the last couple of weeks
2011-12-01 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO below its zero line
2011-12-01 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM above its zero line
2011-12-01 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there STILL wasn't enough evidence of a trend in either direction
2011-12-01 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we had two different time periods conflicting
2011-12-01 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only solution for prices is....?
2011-12-01 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to trade sideways...
2011-12-01 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the high volatility numbers right now
2011-12-01 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it goes both ways, doesn't it?
2011-12-01 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in actuality
2011-12-01 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing here should at all be "surprising"
2011-12-01 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe shocking at the abruptness
2011-12-01 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not surprising
2011-12-01 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look what yesterday's rally did to sentiment
2011-12-01 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just where are the bears now?
2011-12-01 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh sure...there are some
2011-12-01 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the ones who are usually always bearish
2011-12-01 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're changed their tone here with yesterday's events, haven't they?
2011-12-01 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or is it just me?
2011-12-01 16:41:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-12-01 16:41:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they folded
2011-12-01 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I spent the better part of yesterday scrimmaging with doubters
2011-12-01 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to bring some sanity to a crazy day
2011-12-01 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: days like yesterday can be such emotional affairs
2011-12-01 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I dare say
2011-12-01 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost every post yesterday on the market's activity were void of technical work
2011-12-01 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least on TT
2011-12-01 16:43:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they are pretty bulled up-under the zero line-and yes, all fundamental speak
2011-12-01 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe at other sites it wasn't
2011-12-01 16:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-12-01 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move one
2011-12-01 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to around the -17 level yesterday
2011-12-01 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved lower today
2011-12-01 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it didn't quite snapback all the way to its zero line
2011-12-01 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM remains to the downside
2011-12-01 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that money STILL continues to be leaving this marketplace on a intermediate term trending basis in spite of the fact that the price action moved up some 200 points!
2011-12-01 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...is this something that would be deemed as healthy?
2011-12-01 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to have money leaving on rising prices?
2011-12-01 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does the word "distribution" mean something here?
2011-12-01 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be short covering, true
2011-12-01 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever you want to coin it
2011-12-01 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to have rising prices, when money flow is moving in the other direction, creates a vacuum that eventually will need to be filled
2011-12-01 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is an imbalance
2011-12-01 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this continues
2011-12-01 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more difficult it becomes for buyers to stabilize lower prices
2011-12-01 16:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components
2011-12-01 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again we see that the 10% trend found resistance at the 5% Trend
2011-12-01 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains on a cross over sell
2011-12-01 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2011-12-01 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how we gaped up and through our downside gap yesterday on the chart
2011-12-01 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we can now classify both as pattern gaps for now
2011-12-01 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not an island reversal in the classic sense
2011-12-01 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of special note
2011-12-01 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ composite looks to have closed today right at its declining tops line connecting the November tops
2011-12-01 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we also have the NASDAQ breadth MCO already above this same line
2011-12-01 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components are still below theirs
2011-12-01 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either we're going to need to reset here a couple of days and then make a try at moving above this lines
2011-12-01 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or given that the NASDAQ breadth MCO provided a new flag last week
2011-12-01 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to see this index fail in violating this line this time around
2011-12-01 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then show a retrace of some kind (a blow-off)
2011-12-01 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line today
2011-12-01 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending on the angle
2011-12-01 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take ruler to monitor here
2011-12-01 16:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it appears that both the NDX and the NDX breadth MCO both closed right at their declining tops lines today
2011-12-01 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components are not even close in doing so
2011-12-01 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great example of when we say "too far, too fast" really makes the most sense
2011-12-01 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you have the MCO itself leading its components in one direction or the other
2011-12-01 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this usually occurs when something outside what is deemed usual takes place
2011-12-01 16:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of a news event, for example
2011-12-01 16:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but always something that provides an emotional move in prices
2011-12-01 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking the the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-12-01 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see it attempting to find some support just above one of its important support areas - the -250 level
2011-12-01 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have some pattern support as well from the early October lows
2011-12-01 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...those same lows that turned the market around as abruptly as it did
2011-12-01 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if these MCSUM lows are taken out
2011-12-01 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes a pretty high indication that we WILL challenge these same price lows on this sequence
2011-12-01 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending on the momentum of the move going into those lows
2011-12-01 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe break below them
2011-12-01 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-12-01 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO has only given us downside targets of the August lows at this time
2011-12-01 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this changes, so will our expectations of where we should look for enough internal construction for a low to take place
2011-12-01 17:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example here would be...for example...if we then took out the mid September consolidation pattern at the MCSUM -500 level...THAT would then give us new downside price targets
2011-12-01 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's in the future
2011-12-01 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to work with what we have in the now
2011-12-01 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2011-12-01 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we fell away from the zero line today
2011-12-01 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2011-12-01 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX price pattern closed right at its declining tops line today
2011-12-01 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the breadth ratio was negative here too today
2011-12-01 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices wound up closing higher?
2011-12-01 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2011-12-01 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not higher as I look
2011-12-01 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pattern did not move above this same resistance line today
2011-12-01 17:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here though
2011-12-01 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both closed above their zero lines yesterday
2011-12-01 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we don't have the same negative interaction as we do with the more broadly based indices
2011-12-01 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-12-01 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the SPX and the OEX breadth MCO's that did move above their blip resistance areas on Tuesday
2011-12-01 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be too surprising that they might look like in better shape at this time...let's see how the OEX looks
2011-12-01 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost exactly the same configurations
2011-12-01 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, let's see here
2011-12-01 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the end of the month
2011-12-01 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the end of each month portfolios tend to take a snapshot of their positions for their reports to investors
2011-12-01 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't like what the general market is doing?
2011-12-01 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have to be invested?
2011-12-01 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems like the OEX and SPX components would be two good candidates
2011-12-01 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so given the way the broader market is lagging here
2011-12-01 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe...this is what's going on with these two indices right now
2011-12-01 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the rest of the market joins in...then this idea is out the window
2011-12-01 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it doesn't...
2011-12-01 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market would then be correct in our not chasing during a time in which larger institutions had the need to run their portfolios...and just as quickly...exit those same positions on any problems that might come up after this same snapshot
2011-12-01 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: theory, of course
2011-12-01 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know we seem to get in trouble when we try to theorize the market
2011-12-01 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...on to the Dow
2011-12-01 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's price pattern too is up against its declining tops line
2011-12-01 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCO is not anywhere near this same point in its structure
2011-12-01 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here...prices are leading breadth
2011-12-01 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this begs for a reset
2011-12-01 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far...too fast
2011-12-01 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the vacuum is being filled
2011-12-01 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does so with a great amount of volatility...
2011-12-01 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the MID price pattern and the MID breadth MCO are right up against their declining tops lines
2011-12-01 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM continues to move lower here
2011-12-01 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now within 2 or 3 trading days of hitting its zero line
2011-12-01 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be the all important test for both sides here
2011-12-01 17:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since today did not provide the needed follow through for the bulls to attempt to re-establish the previous uptrend from the October 4th lows
2011-12-01 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they don't do it tomorrow
2011-12-01 17:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week might be weak enough to forget all of the sugar plums that were dancing in many traders heads yesterday
2011-12-01 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML mechanics are in the same situation here
2011-12-01 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices leading breadth
2011-12-01 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a reset is needed
2011-12-01 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a return to or towards last Friday's lows in the MCO is a pretty high expectation here
2011-12-01 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-12-01 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still up to the bulls to provide substance to their recent excitement of the last couple of days
2011-12-01 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears still have control here
2011-12-01 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of any outside hanky panky to the contrary
2011-12-01 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-12-01 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday reminded me of the old currency interventions we saw in the 1980's
2011-12-01 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those of us who were around back then know very well
2011-12-01 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that after these interventions
2011-12-01 17:17:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, me too!
2011-12-01 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ongoing trends not only re-established themselves
2011-12-01 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but did so violently as the vacuum created by these interventions dried up
2011-12-01 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there was another one
2011-12-01 17:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another one
2011-12-01 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after awhile
2011-12-01 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just gave up
2011-12-01 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they did that
2011-12-01 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN the market was able to correct the problem
2011-12-01 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things just delay the inevitable
2011-12-01 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like
2011-12-01 17:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2011-12-01 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hard reversal of the October 4th?
2011-12-01 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was a week too early on the cycles?
2011-12-01 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once it peaked
2011-12-01 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did so with a climatically?
2011-12-01 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went again
2011-12-01 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems familiar, doesn't it?
2011-12-01 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets work their problems out if only left alone
2011-12-01 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I digress
2011-12-01 17:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM also continues to move to lower lows in spite of what prices are doing
2011-12-01 17:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty tricky, isn't it?
2011-12-01 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the masses see the markets rise 10% in 3 days
2011-12-01 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and think that everything is just fine
2011-12-01 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the world governments have everything under control
2011-12-01 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets are "too big to fail"
2011-12-01 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then....whoosh
2011-12-01 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is my concern here
2011-12-01 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get some back up here
2011-12-01 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2011-12-01 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be more than happy to change my tune
2011-12-01 17:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after reviewing the data tonight
2011-12-01 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is there really anyone here that believes that things are under control on a purely technical basis?
2011-12-01 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have made a tradable low?
2011-12-01 17:24:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: zero texture-just doesn't fly for me..
2011-12-01 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know this to be true because?
2011-12-01 17:24:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: experience, I guess
2011-12-01 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I hope so
2011-12-01 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have we seen these same situations?
2011-12-01 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how many times did we see that unless we have texture for a base
2011-12-01 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that its not likely that prices will be able to maintain a rising structure?
2011-12-01 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single time...?
2011-12-01 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's our advantage here
2011-12-01 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course it's hard sometimes to believe in market physics when you're getting hit upside the head with an out of the blue "announcement"
2011-12-01 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line here is simple
2011-12-01 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: market prices go in one direction or the other based solely on whether or not money believes that the products offered are going to be able to generate more money so that they can be valued at higher (or lower) prices
2011-12-01 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that never changes
2011-12-01 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just a distraction
2011-12-01 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless money starts to believe that the longer term effects of what's happening currently with economics is going to be OK
2011-12-01 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then yesterday's boost was a well needed shot in the arm that will likely spread from banker to business
2011-12-01 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also know
2011-12-01 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the differences in the countries that make up the EU have a long history of being at odds with each other
2011-12-01 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are not likely to co-operate
2011-12-01 17:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...in the meantime
2011-12-01 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we goose
2011-12-01 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to give them more time to "discuss things"
2011-12-01 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope folks...yesterday was not a good day in the markets
2011-12-01 17:30:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I can\t believe how lane the Europe response has been
2011-12-01 17:30:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lame
2011-12-01 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are in a worse position than we were before Monday
2011-12-01 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news is
2011-12-01 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-12-01 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're staying away from a Summation Failure pattern
2011-12-01 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are likely to just move down and through the zero lines here in the various MCSUM's
2011-12-01 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least that's what it looks like for now
2011-12-01 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the CVI's
2011-12-01 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all were in nose bleed territory yesterday
2011-12-01 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a price top in the next two days
2011-12-01 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had started today
2011-12-01 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now minimally "overbought"
2011-12-01 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have gone from "oversold" to "overbought" in 3 days?
2011-12-01 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...not healthy
2011-12-01 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not likely to be able to be maintained
2011-12-01 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far....
2011-12-01 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too darn fast
2011-12-01 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market has no visible means of support
2011-12-01 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the jobs numbers better not be bad tomorrow
2011-12-01 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think the consensus here is for +150,000
2011-12-01 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my feel here, based on who I've talked to, is that unless much of that is Government hiring, there's going to be a disappointing number
2011-12-01 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: holiday help hiring has been way down
2011-12-01 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we see with the November numbers
2011-12-01 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-12-01 17:35:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: adp # over 200 may have set the expectations very high, as well
2011-12-01 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the NDX
2011-12-01 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the VTO's were pulled up short from being able to move to "oversold"
2011-12-01 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we still have some work to do there
2011-12-01 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...and ADP also adjusted the October numbers higher as well
2011-12-01 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the consensus for tomorrow
2011-12-01 17:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at 131,000
2011-12-01 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with the jobs numbers though
2011-12-01 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they are part of that "rear view mirror" group of indicators that don't tell the true story until much later on
2011-12-01 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GDP is in the group
2011-12-01 17:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2011-12-01 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see that Productivity was DOWN 2.9% yesterday during the excitement?
2011-12-01 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I continue to find that productivity is the most important indicator out there
2011-12-01 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...
2011-12-01 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as it rises, it eats away at any inflationary expectations provided by loose monetary policy
2011-12-01 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it declines, then inflation starts to take hold
2011-12-01 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we really have to watch that number
2011-12-01 17:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2011-12-01 17:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if inflation starts to get out of control
2011-12-01 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing the FED can do is raise interest rates to slow it down
2011-12-01 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on what we're all hearing with the debt problems
2011-12-01 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making money more expensive would not be a good thing
2011-12-01 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from Governments all the way down to consumers
2011-12-01 17:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but especially to those small business' who have floating interest rate credit lines
2011-12-01 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they start to move higher...well...we're in no condition right now for something like this to happen
2011-12-01 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will not likely be able to be absorbed by consumers
2011-12-01 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: line up the dominoes folks
2011-12-01 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit one...and the rest go down with it
2011-12-01 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .92
2011-12-01 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2011-12-01 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now neutral
2011-12-01 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike it was on Tuesday where the bears had little chance of moving prices lower
2011-12-01 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (remember?)
2011-12-01 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was it? 1.23?
2011-12-01 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .42
2011-12-01 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at ..85
2011-12-01 17:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to being "overbought" now
2011-12-01 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good omen with a internal divergence in money flow
2011-12-01 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .57
2011-12-01 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2011-12-01 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-12-01 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-12-01 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have just about all of the MCO and their components diverging here
2011-12-01 17:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have several MCO's up against their declining tops lines
2011-12-01 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the price patterns finding resistance at these same lines of negative influence
2011-12-01 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's have spiked
2011-12-01 17:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO"s are "overbought"
2011-12-01 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Open 10's are neutral here
2011-12-01 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can take control of the direction of money near term
2011-12-01 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing that would be a great short entry for tomorrow would be a spike higher at the open
2011-12-01 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then drift lower for the rest of the day
2011-12-01 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would pretty much get all of the unwilling buyers into the market
2011-12-01 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would probably set the stage for some backing and filling next week
2011-12-01 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market decides to sell off at the open
2011-12-01 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to play this as a hit and run strategy for now
2011-12-01 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not worth it to hold over the weekend at this stage until we get the MCSUM's below their zero lines
2011-12-01 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we can see the chances increase of a trend in motion
2011-12-01 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that...just another ho hum week
2011-12-01 17:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-12-01 17:50:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-12-01 17:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's one thing I can leave you all with tonight
2011-12-01 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to remain focused on the internals and not what prices are attempting to persuade you to do
2011-12-01 17:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has never changed here in the last two weeks
2011-12-01 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always been breadth plurality here that's been important
2011-12-01 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both the short term and intermediate term trends of this same information remain negative at this time
2011-12-01 17:52:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm short USO on the back test of a broken down uptrend-staying strictly old school in my trading
2011-12-01 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's taken you this far...it should continue to prove beneficial
2011-12-01 17:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to believe in your indicators and your work
2011-12-01 17:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not what the market wants you to believe
2011-12-01 17:53:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can't change now, too old LOL
2011-12-01 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we do move to higher highs here
2011-12-01 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-12-01 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is something in which we discussed several times as a likely possibility as well
2011-12-01 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as even when the MCSUM tops out
2011-12-01 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy of the move it took to get the MCSUM to an extreme
2011-12-01 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually is worked off later on to provide our technical divergence
2011-12-01 17:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...not a time to buy
2011-12-01 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still another opportunity to sell positions
2011-12-01 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the market starts moving lower again
2011-12-01 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can open up your short positions
2011-12-01 17:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't any rush here
2011-12-01 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a sprint folks
2011-12-01 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a marathon
2011-12-01 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-12-01 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-12-01 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-12-01 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-12-01 17:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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