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Posts: 4,419
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-12-10 15:59:53 fib1618: good day
2015-12-10 15:59:56 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-12-10 16:00:31 rite01: Good here and you?
2015-12-10 16:01:08 fib1618: doing fine!
2015-12-10 16:01:33 rite01: glad to hear
2015-12-10 16:02:21 fib1618: you got all your Christmas shopping done yet?
2015-12-10 16:02:37 rite01: Some not all
2015-12-10 16:02:51 rite01: How about you?
2015-12-10 16:03:21 fib1618: we usually shop all year just some odds and ends to do
2015-12-10 16:04:08 rite01: that does sounds familiar
2015-12-10 16:04:37 fib1618: hey have you been?
2015-12-10 16:04:50 tuna: Great Thanks
2015-12-10 16:05:07 fib1618: how are you doing Brett?
2015-12-10 16:05:42 unc1998: Now that I have a new computer I am doing great!  [smile]
2015-12-10 16:05:54 fib1618: hard drive crash?
2015-12-10 16:06:26 unc1998: yeah....I am not getting much more than 3 years out of my computers now
2015-12-10 16:07:06 fib1618: it's sort of like "energy efficient appliances"...they don't last nearly as long as they used to
2015-12-10 16:07:15 unc1998: exactly
2015-12-10 16:07:18 fib1618: we've been fortunate
2015-12-10 16:07:30 fib1618: still running XP on 3 computers here
2015-12-10 16:07:50 fib1618: I just retired one about 2 months ago that was in service since 2001
2015-12-10 16:08:02 unc1998: wow
2015-12-10 16:08:31 fib1618: the one I'm on right now though is starting to lose its memory
2015-12-10 16:08:36 fib1618: problem is
2015-12-10 16:08:44 fib1618: if I get a new computer
2015-12-10 16:08:56 fib1618: I have to get 3 since I network the other two to this one
2015-12-10 16:09:00 fib1618: no less
2015-12-10 16:09:31 fib1618: my accounting program only supports Win 7 or later
2015-12-10 16:09:46 unc1998: the macbook i just purchased has a solid state drive, will be interesting to see how long it lasts
2015-12-10 16:09:46 fib1618: so we treat them all like babies
2015-12-10 16:10:09 fib1618: should be good...that's what you're paying for
2015-12-10 16:10:15 unc1998: yep
2015-12-10 16:10:19 fib1618: can't use Apple
2015-12-10 16:10:43 fib1618: accounting program is only Win based
2015-12-10 16:10:54 fib1618: anyway
2015-12-10 16:11:08 fib1618: any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-12-10 16:11:37 rite01: Yes I have one
2015-12-10 16:11:41 fib1618: we've been waiting for you Lew (looking at watch) [smile]
2015-12-10 16:11:43 unc1998: I haven't done a lot of trading in the past month, just watching and waiting
2015-12-10 16:11:47 fib1618: away
2015-12-10 16:12:04 fib1618: you haven't missed anything...but aggravation!
2015-12-10 16:12:07 thespookyone: ruh roh, had to fix granddaughter dinner
2015-12-10 16:12:19 fib1618: Chef Lew
2015-12-10 16:12:28 fib1618: will see him soon on Top Chef!
2015-12-10 16:12:30 thespookyone: yep
2015-12-10 16:12:47 fib1618: had a question?
2015-12-10 16:12:51 rite01: Regarding Index's 5 min thru 2 hour 19/39Ema charts..Can a buy or sell signal (Index price) be approximated in advance?  You know when the ema's crossover signal what the Index price should be?
2015-12-10 16:13:30 rite01: Hope you understand the question
2015-12-10 16:13:56 fib1618:'s never a good idea to lead off on any type anything that's mechanical
2015-12-10 16:14:26 fib1618: but using the 19 and 39 period EMA's will help just have be patient
2015-12-10 16:14:28 fib1618: for example
2015-12-10 16:14:39 fib1618: what I usually do is watch for the crossover
2015-12-10 16:14:58 fib1618: if I'm long, and we have a bearish cross (19 below 39), that's your sell
2015-12-10 16:15:11 fib1618: but not your short signal
2015-12-10 16:15:31 fib1618: you short signal would come when the price pattern snaps back toward this same crossover
2015-12-10 16:15:58 fib1618: and then prices move down and through the preceding bottom created before the snapback
2015-12-10 16:16:09 fib1618: for a short position
2015-12-10 16:16:17 fib1618: you then close once the 19 moves above the 39
2015-12-10 16:16:28 fib1618: wait for the snapback to the cross
2015-12-10 16:16:36 fib1618: and once we you get a higher go long
2015-12-10 16:17:29 fib1618: this comes under the concept that if a train is going from LA to NY
2015-12-10 16:17:39 fib1618: it's always better to get on in Vegas and get off in Philly
2015-12-10 16:17:48 fib1618: all you want is the meat of the trip
2015-12-10 16:18:04 fib1618: the hardest habit to break is leading off
2015-12-10 16:18:10 fib1618: because you "feel" something might take place
2015-12-10 16:18:27 rite01: got it, thanks
2015-12-10 16:18:44 fib1618: there's no sense in being analytical in a technical sense
2015-12-10 16:18:55 fib1618: if you're not going to allow the process to work its magic
2015-12-10 16:19:02 rite01: OK just can not watch some days and
2015-12-10 16:19:15 fib1618: this is where trading plan comes into work
2015-12-10 16:19:19 fib1618: that's OK
2015-12-10 16:19:28 fib1618: you will NEVER hit every single turning point
2015-12-10 16:19:34 fib1618: for example
2015-12-10 16:19:43 fib1618: what if you got on the wrong train and it's only going from LA to Denver?
2015-12-10 16:20:12 fib1618: so if you can't watch things intraday
2015-12-10 16:20:20 fib1618: the only real way to trade is with the daily time frame
2015-12-10 16:20:52 fib1618: it's just going to be a bit more difficult to do so once they take away the ability to place trading stops
2015-12-10 16:20:57 fib1618: but we can get around that
2015-12-10 16:21:08 fib1618: also remember
2015-12-10 16:21:11 fib1618: the higher prices are
2015-12-10 16:21:26 fib1618: the more volatility there is
2015-12-10 16:21:39 fib1618: so you may have to expand your time period preference if you're not able to keep tabs during the day
2015-12-10 16:21:47 rite01: great analogy!
2015-12-10 16:21:57 fib1618: another thing you can do these days
2015-12-10 16:22:09 fib1618: is that every brokerage house has a trading app
2015-12-10 16:22:16 fib1618: where they also include charting
2015-12-10 16:22:26 fib1618: and some include alarms
2015-12-10 16:22:39 fib1618: so if you get tied up
2015-12-10 16:23:05 fib1618: you can put in an alarm "IF this happens, then alarm" and you can then make your execution
2015-12-10 16:23:17 fib1618: will you get the maximum amount of pump in the trade?
2015-12-10 16:23:20 fib1618: probably not
2015-12-10 16:23:26 fib1618: but you'll have options
2015-12-10 16:23:38 fib1618: OK...let me get SC up and we'll get started
2015-12-10 16:24:31 fib1618: let me check the BETS sec
2015-12-10 16:25:35 fib1618: -75
2015-12-10 16:26:10 fib1618: after extending a bit lower on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:26:22 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCO popped higher today
2015-12-10 16:26:47 fib1618: while continuing to hold above the MCO lows of mid November
2015-12-10 16:27:05 fib1618: as we expected on Tuesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:27:38 fib1618: and we saw the results of this with the wide price swings during the day
2015-12-10 16:27:45 fib1618: with the Dow up nearly 200 points at the open
2015-12-10 16:27:50 fib1618: but failed to hold those gains
2015-12-10 16:27:58 fib1618: and moved to a 100 point loss as the balance of power shifted
2015-12-10 16:28:24 fib1618: this is the classic sequence we see in many downside 3rd wave pattern sequences
2015-12-10 16:28:43 fib1618: where rallies fail quite rapidly after showing good promise
2015-12-10 16:28:55 fib1618: same thing happened today
2015-12-10 16:29:09 fib1618: but it looks like we actually closed up
2015-12-10 16:29:19 fib1618: (darn...was looking for the whole week to be down each day)
2015-12-10 16:29:37 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-12-10 16:29:56 fib1618: we see that today's price bar in the NYA suggests extreme weakness in the structure
2015-12-10 16:30:14 fib1618: as prices attempt to hold above the mid November wash out point
2015-12-10 16:30:41 fib1618: checking for divergence
2015-12-10 16:30:42 fib1618: one sec
2015-12-10 16:31:08 fib1618: nope
2015-12-10 16:31:25 rite01: intraday or closing?
2015-12-10 16:31:28 fib1618: so we're still in the running for some follow through to the downside
2015-12-10 16:31:30 fib1618: closing basis
2015-12-10 16:31:40 fib1618: we can only compare with equal parts
2015-12-10 16:31:49 fib1618: MCO close to Price close
2015-12-10 16:31:57 rite01: just checking
2015-12-10 16:31:59 fib1618: settlement
2015-12-10 16:32:02 fib1618: np
2015-12-10 16:32:25 fib1618: I see why you asked
2015-12-10 16:32:33 rite01: yes
2015-12-10 16:32:35 fib1618: for we did move to a new intraday low on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:32:49 fib1618: that's the probe before the thrust
2015-12-10 16:33:13 fib1618: where you have stops that were set that are taken out
2015-12-10 16:33:33 fib1618: and then specialists rally the market to unload this inventory
2015-12-10 16:33:42 fib1618: and once sold off
2015-12-10 16:33:49 fib1618: then they thrust prices to new lows
2015-12-10 16:33:53 fib1618: supply and demand
2015-12-10 16:34:00 fib1618: if this is the case
2015-12-10 16:34:09 fib1618: we should see new closing lows by Monday
2015-12-10 16:34:12 fib1618: but it's likely to be on Friday
2015-12-10 16:34:23 fib1618: and with it
2015-12-10 16:34:27 fib1618: a lower MCO low
2015-12-10 16:34:50 fib1618: as we need to have everything work together to achieve a goal
2015-12-10 16:35:14 fib1618: after moving to a -58 on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:35:29 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO snapped back to the -50 level today
2015-12-10 16:35:36 fib1618: so snapback complete there
2015-12-10 16:35:59 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-12-10 16:36:14 fib1618: and we note that it settled today at a +46
2015-12-10 16:36:36 fib1618: so unless we see the buyers move in with some conviction right here, right now
2015-12-10 16:36:50 fib1618: not only will the MCO be below -50
2015-12-10 16:37:02 fib1618: but that would also push the MCSUM down and through its zero line
2015-12-10 16:37:30 fib1618: and we all know what usually happens with prices as the position of intermediate term control moves from the longs to the shorts
2015-12-10 16:37:58 fib1618: usually...nothing good comes from it
2015-12-10 16:38:47 fib1618: basing things on the premise that we are currently in a 3rd wave down of one degree or the other
2015-12-10 16:39:16 fib1618: let me see if I can come up with some downside Fibonacci targets we can work with if we break sharply lower on Friday
2015-12-10 16:39:56 fib1618: well...
2015-12-10 16:40:20 fib1618: if wave (2) peaked out last week at 10,408
2015-12-10 16:40:38 fib1618: the .618 retracement was at 10,418
2015-12-10 16:40:47 fib1618: and with the market as weak as it is
2015-12-10 16:41:02 fib1618: I guess 10 points would provide a pretty good bulls eye for that
2015-12-10 16:41:06 fib1618: so...
2015-12-10 16:41:34 fib1618: if wave (1) was 263 NYA points
2015-12-10 16:41:58 fib1618: if we multiply that by 1.618 = 426 points
2015-12-10 16:42:22 fib1618: take that away from 10,408 = 9982
2015-12-10 16:42:37 fib1618: which would be just above the August lows
2015-12-10 16:43:03 fib1618: and, of which, would meet our expectation of a challenge of these same lows that was given 2 weeks ago
2015-12-10 16:43:20 fib1618: well
2015-12-10 16:43:24 fib1618: not really
2015-12-10 16:43:28 fib1618: double checking here
2015-12-10 16:43:39 fib1618: but those lows were at 9601
2015-12-10 16:43:53 fib1618: let's play a bit more (in theory)
2015-12-10 16:44:28 fib1618: .382 x the length of wave (3) would = 162 points for wave (4)
2015-12-10 16:44:38 fib1618: and assuming a triangle
2015-12-10 16:44:55 fib1618: and further assuming equality with wave (1)
2015-12-10 16:45:43 fib1618: that would 9737
2015-12-10 16:45:54 fib1618: that would be more consistent with a challenge of the August lows
2015-12-10 16:46:11 fib1618: but all of this is just supposition at this time until we get the confirmation
2015-12-10 16:46:17 fib1618: a rough outline for the blueprint
2015-12-10 16:46:29 fib1618: with the important thing being
2015-12-10 16:46:36 fib1618: that the August MCO lows are not taken out where even lower price targets would then be given
2015-12-10 16:46:44 fib1618: so far
2015-12-10 16:46:55 fib1618: we have a small series of 1's and 2's here
2015-12-10 16:47:11 fib1618: so (3) could, and would likely, extend
2015-12-10 16:47:17 fib1618: and maybe...hopefully
2015-12-10 16:47:23 fib1618: break the November price lows
2015-12-10 16:47:28 fib1618: while diverging in the MCO
2015-12-10 16:47:36 fib1618: we'll see
2015-12-10 16:47:48 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-12-10 16:48:07 fib1618: and here we matched the mid November lows on Wednesday with a -45
2015-12-10 16:48:23 fib1618: so no chance of impending divergence there
2015-12-10 16:48:32 fib1618: which usually means that we're going to break to a new low
2015-12-10 16:48:52 fib1618: and the November price lows will be taken out with it
2015-12-10 16:49:05 fib1618: noted from yesterday
2015-12-10 16:49:27 fib1618: that the NASDAQ did turn out to be much weaker on the intraday reversal than than the large caps
2015-12-10 16:49:42 fib1618: that insight was provided by the Open 10's on Tuesday
2015-12-10 16:50:19 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2015-12-10 16:51:08 fib1618: and the zero line break we saw on Wednesday in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM also broke the accelerated rising bottoms line connecting the October and November lows
2015-12-10 16:51:26 fib1618: and prices, of course, suffered because of this break
2015-12-10 16:51:47 fib1618: the next level of trend comes in at the -180 level
2015-12-10 16:52:09 fib1618: so with a current reading of -91
2015-12-10 16:52:25 fib1618: and the expectation of a break to lower lows in the NASDAQ MCO
2015-12-10 16:52:44 fib1618: we should see a challenge of this line as soon as tomorrow...Monday at the latest
2015-12-10 16:52:53 fib1618: so far then
2015-12-10 16:53:20 fib1618: the next two days are likely to be rough ones for the bulls as we begin to systematically break various support levels
2015-12-10 16:53:55 fib1618: as we expected on Tuesday, the NDX 10% Trend did move sharply below its zero line on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:54:21 fib1618: and this triggered a lower low in the NDX breadth MCO
2015-12-10 16:54:45 fib1618: today we saw a simple snapback back up to the zero line on the 5% Trend
2015-12-10 16:55:00 fib1618: so the next technical expectation is for lower lows
2015-12-10 16:55:48 fib1618: we also note that the NDX breadth MCO performed a simple snapback toward the -25 level today after finding natural support at the -54 level
2015-12-10 16:56:03 fib1618: so if this rhythm continues
2015-12-10 16:56:18 fib1618: we should see another selling wave hit this basket of issues by Monday
2015-12-10 16:56:30 fib1618: also of note
2015-12-10 16:56:51 fib1618: is that the NDX breadth MCSUM closed today with a reading of +249
2015-12-10 16:57:02 fib1618: so if the buyers are going to hold, they need to do so HERE AND NOW
2015-12-10 16:57:20 fib1618: or a complete unwinding of long positions will take place over the next couple of days
2015-12-10 16:57:40 fib1618: next week we have two things to also consider in all this
2015-12-10 16:58:03 fib1618: one, of course, is the Fed announcement on Wednesday
2015-12-10 16:58:17 fib1618: and then we have Quad Witch Thursday and Friday
2015-12-10 16:58:46 fib1618: which, from what I've read, there are an absolute TON of open index put positions right now
2015-12-10 16:58:52 fib1618: in the billions of dollars
2015-12-10 16:59:25 fib1618: more than likely being used as stop loss insurance plays
2015-12-10 16:59:47 fib1618: by large institutions who tend to have to remain long equities
2015-12-10 17:00:02 fib1618: kind of a perfect storm brewing
2015-12-10 17:00:20 fib1618: the big worry though is with the volume MCSUM's
2015-12-10 17:00:37 fib1618: as they continue to lead to the downside
2015-12-10 17:01:14 fib1618: so things will likely wind up very turbulent towards the end of next week as positions are squared up
2015-12-10 17:04:00 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-12-10 17:04:11 fib1618: and we bounced right off the -75 level today
2015-12-10 17:05:01 fib1618: (amazing how these 25 multiples in the MCO and the 250 multiples in the MCSUM provide support and resistance points as they do)
2015-12-10 17:05:44 fib1618: and we have snapped back to the low point of last week
2015-12-10 17:06:17 fib1618: also of note is that the SPX breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +250 level on Wednesday
2015-12-10 17:06:47 fib1618: so we are getting a real sense on why prices just couldn't hold on to their gains no matter how hard the buyers tried to make this happen
2015-12-10 17:06:58 fib1618: this was our expectation on Tuesday
2015-12-10 17:07:15 fib1618: but it just wasn't enough though to break the back of the downside pattern sequence
2015-12-10 17:07:39 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO bounced off the -98 level today
2015-12-10 17:08:00 fib1618: and wound up with a strong showing overall
2015-12-10 17:08:25 fib1618: this then shows us that the majority of today's index bounces took place on the backs of the top 100 issues that make up the SPX
2015-12-10 17:09:00 fib1618: and let's not forget to note how the OEX breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line on Wednesday as well
2015-12-10 17:09:35 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO bounced higher today right off the -100 level
2015-12-10 17:09:49 fib1618: and almost made it back to the -50 level
2015-12-10 17:09:59 fib1618: so not only were the top 100 issues the leaders
2015-12-10 17:10:37 fib1618: but the "best of the best" were the issues creating the most of amount of work
2015-12-10 17:11:29 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the Dow's price pattern sequence
2015-12-10 17:11:59 fib1618: and we see the outline of a declining right angle triangle in play here
2015-12-10 17:12:10 fib1618: with the base at 17,500
2015-12-10 17:13:49 fib1618: so any intraday Dow print below Wednesday's intraday lows of 17,400 would trigger a confirmation of a (3) wave down under the guidelines of which we discussed earlier in the chat
2015-12-10 17:14:47 fib1618: with a challenge of the November price lows then likely to occur soon thereafter
2015-12-10 17:15:21 fib1618: note also that the Dow breadth MCSUM is now at the +133 level
2015-12-10 17:15:46 fib1618: so there's a great chance of a zero line test by the next time we meet next Tuesday
2015-12-10 17:16:27 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO bounced off the -76 level today
2015-12-10 17:16:45 fib1618: which is still above the mid November lows of -78
2015-12-10 17:17:21 fib1618: note also that we had a simple snapback toward the zero line today in the MID 5% Trend
2015-12-10 17:17:59 fib1618: so if there's a good time to accelerate lower, this would be time to do so
2015-12-10 17:18:20 fib1618: and with it
2015-12-10 17:18:30 fib1618: a break of the November price lows will occur
2015-12-10 17:19:10 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO did move to a lower low compared with mid November on Wednesday
2015-12-10 17:19:46 fib1618: so a break below the +250 level to the downside in the SML breadth MCSUM should be expected
2015-12-10 17:20:17 fib1618: with then a likely break of the mid November lows
2015-12-10 17:20:42 fib1618: and to add to the magic
2015-12-10 17:20:54 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO also bounced right off the -50 level today
2015-12-10 17:21:11 fib1618: which is still above the -54 reading of mid November
2015-12-10 17:21:41 fib1618: but today's bounce wasn't able to save the TM breadth MCSUM from moving down and through its zero line
2015-12-10 17:21:45 fib1618: so...
2015-12-10 17:21:58 fib1618: we continue to look very heavy internally
2015-12-10 17:22:26 fib1618: and this is translating to the buyers having fits in attempting to hold any kind of ground made during the trading day
2015-12-10 17:22:43 fib1618: liquidity continues to contract according to the BETS numbers
2015-12-10 17:23:44 fib1618: so our near term expectation is for continued weakness, with the likelihood of a "crash like" event to the downside
2015-12-10 17:24:02 fib1618: as more and more of the market's control moves from the buyers to the sellers
2015-12-10 17:24:21 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2015-12-10 17:24:51 fib1618: and we continue to see a textbook double top formation playing out in the XLY price structure
2015-12-10 17:25:18 fib1618: with the XLY breadth MCO bouncing off the -72 level today
2015-12-10 17:25:35 fib1618: and winding up with a closing reading of -50
2015-12-10 17:25:54 fib1618: at this point
2015-12-10 17:26:13 fib1618: we are no less than 2 days away from challenging the XLY breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-12-10 17:26:31 fib1618: with any break below this like being the likely trigger of the mentioned double top
2015-12-10 17:27:22 fib1618: we got a bounce higher today from the -49 level on the XLP breadth MCO
2015-12-10 17:28:02 fib1618: and we seem to be at an important juncture here as well
2015-12-10 17:28:35 fib1618: as today's XLP breadth MCSUM settled right on the rising trendline that can be drawn from the June and September lows
2015-12-10 17:29:05 fib1618: the price pattern itself is also looking rather toppy
2015-12-10 17:29:22 fib1618: with the larger rally to new highs a 3 structured affair
2015-12-10 17:29:53 fib1618: and the rally from the mid November lows showing the same kind of weakness in its structure
2015-12-10 17:30:24 fib1618: if this is the trigger point of a broader market 3rd wave collapse
2015-12-10 17:30:46 fib1618: then you can bet Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley are likely to dump here as well
2015-12-10 17:31:00 fib1618: and they usually carry well known household names with staying power
2015-12-10 17:31:04 fib1618: and why the "defensive sectors" of the XLP, XLV and XLU tend to be the areas of investment for these same folks
2015-12-10 17:32:15 fib1618: we've seen a nice bounce so far from the "oversold" levels seen on Tuesday in the XLE breadth MCO
2015-12-10 17:32:53 fib1618: but unfortunately with no texture in its make up
2015-12-10 17:33:00 fib1618: so we'll call this a bear market rally
2015-12-10 17:33:08 fib1618: a reflex, if you will
2015-12-10 17:33:24 fib1618: after meeting our downside price target on an intraday basis on Tuesday
2015-12-10 17:33:49 fib1618: mid range close today
2015-12-10 17:33:53 fib1618: exhaustion gap filled
2015-12-10 17:34:04 fib1618: so some backing and filling over the next couple of days would be usual
2015-12-10 17:34:19 fib1618: also of note
2015-12-10 17:34:34 fib1618: we moved down and through the -750 level today in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-12-10 17:35:10 fib1618: so any good follow through there on Friday would push things to the more important support area of -1000
2015-12-10 17:35:22 fib1618: where a break there would be very good news for consumers
2015-12-10 17:35:27 fib1618: but very bad for the markets and for those who work in the sector
2015-12-10 17:35:50 fib1618: nothing good here so far
2015-12-10 17:36:11 fib1618: lower low on Wednesday in the XLF breadth MCO
2015-12-10 17:36:32 fib1618: and we'll be moving down and through the XLF breadth MCSUM zero line tomorrow
2015-12-10 17:36:55 fib1618: noting also how similar the XLF price pattern structure is to the Dow and OEX
2015-12-10 17:37:35 fib1618: and this sector could be our proxy as to what may happen for the broader market near term
2015-12-10 17:38:15 fib1618: at first glance the XLV looks pretty stable here
2015-12-10 17:38:20 fib1618: but looking deeper
2015-12-10 17:38:37 fib1618: and we find that the XLV components are playing zero line tag right now
2015-12-10 17:38:49 fib1618: with the 5% bouncing higher off the line today
2015-12-10 17:38:56 fib1618: while the 10% snapped back to it
2015-12-10 17:39:30 fib1618: given that we had increased gap expansion at the point where we moved down and through the +500 level on Wednesday
2015-12-10 17:39:48 fib1618: our technical expectation here is for another round of selling to hit this sector near term
2015-12-10 17:40:56 fib1618: with any intraday print below $70 a solid sell with the technical breakdown
2015-12-10 17:41:47 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO moved sharply below its mid November lows on Wednesday
2015-12-10 17:41:52 fib1618: and with it...prices followed
2015-12-10 17:42:18 fib1618: problem here being that with a large majority of stocks in both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports in this sector basket
2015-12-10 17:42:46 fib1618: this doesn't forecast a rosy outcome overall for those two main indexes over the next few days
2015-12-10 17:43:17 fib1618: we'll keep an eye on the XLI breadth MCSUM here
2015-12-10 17:43:38 fib1618: as it might be close to challenging its zero line by the FED announcement next Wednesday
2015-12-10 17:44:31 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCSUM broke zero line support today
2015-12-10 17:44:37 fib1618: no less..horizontal support
2015-12-10 17:45:04 fib1618: with the price bar today looking like it's on a slippery slope
2015-12-10 17:45:24 fib1618: with it barely poking its head above Wednesday's closing price
2015-12-10 17:46:12 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO bounced off the -75 level today
2015-12-10 17:46:31 fib1618: as the 5% index snapped back up to its zero line
2015-12-10 17:46:39 fib1618: after moving below it yesterday
2015-12-10 17:46:49 fib1618: also of note
2015-12-10 17:47:07 fib1618: is that the XLK breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through the +500 level near term
2015-12-10 17:47:54 fib1618: so between the Financials and Tech...both are in a position to make things rather uncomfortable for the longs
2015-12-10 17:48:20 fib1618: and as we have expected for some time now
2015-12-10 17:48:37 fib1618: the XLU breadth MCO continues to remain below its zero line with a complex bearish structure
2015-12-10 17:49:30 fib1618: and this is allowing the XLU breadth MCSUM to continue its journey from being deeply "overbought" to a more neutral position
2015-12-10 17:49:34 fib1618: near term, it wouldn't be too surprising now that we see some sort of 2-3 week period of better breadth plurality coming back into this sector
2015-12-10 17:50:23 fib1618: something of which would likely have its kick off with next week's FED announcement
2015-12-10 17:50:59 fib1618: but what's most important here in this idea is that the XLU breadth MCO maintains the lows made last week
2015-12-10 17:51:26 fib1618: for any break now would likely send prices below their September lows
2015-12-10 17:51:28 fib1618: so...
2015-12-10 17:51:52 fib1618: the sellers continue to chip away at any positive structures built by the buyers in late November
2015-12-10 17:52:29 fib1618: and are now in a position to really flex their muscles and push things to the downside with quite a bit of amplitude as we continue to see more and more areas breaking down
2015-12-10 17:53:37 fib1618: bottoms above bottoms in all of the index CVI's
2015-12-10 17:53:47 fib1618: with the STVO's "oversold"
2015-12-10 17:54:12 fib1618: and the OEX and Dow VTO's now classified as "oversold" as well
2015-12-10 17:54:18 fib1618: problem is
2015-12-10 17:54:30 fib1618: until we get the SPX and NDX VTO's to join the party
2015-12-10 17:54:57 fib1618: we're still open to further weakness
2015-12-10 17:55:17 fib1618: very much like we had on Tuesday with the highly "oversold" MCO readings in the Dow and OEX
2015-12-10 17:55:40 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .68
2015-12-10 17:56:06 fib1618: and that's after yesterday's .74
2015-12-10 17:56:13 fib1618: lots of short covering
2015-12-10 17:56:16 fib1618: and nothing to show for it
2015-12-10 17:56:39 fib1618: sort of like your car stuck in mud and trying to push your way out, but all you wind up with is mud on your face
2015-12-10 17:56:58 fib1618: Open 10 now at 1.05
2015-12-10 17:57:08 fib1618: so we've relieved that imbalance
2015-12-10 17:57:21 fib1618: also of note here
2015-12-10 17:57:33 fib1618: is that the 55 day SMA of the TRIN is now "overbought" at 1.10
2015-12-10 17:58:04 fib1618: nice place to start in the other direction, huh?
2015-12-10 17:58:21 fib1618: goodness
2015-12-10 17:58:27 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .54
2015-12-10 17:58:43 fib1618: Open 10 at .90
2015-12-10 17:58:57 fib1618: TM TRIN at .57
2015-12-10 17:59:06 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2015-12-10 17:59:11 fib1618: so...let's see here
2015-12-10 17:59:29 fib1618: we have a market that is starting to show lower lows on a short term trending basis
2015-12-10 17:59:44 fib1618: we have several breadth MCSUM's moving down and through their zero lines
2015-12-10 18:00:04 fib1618: we have general pattern heaviness on an intraday basis
2015-12-10 18:00:29 fib1618: and we have short covering being the blunt of any advance from this same heaviness
2015-12-10 18:00:41 fib1618: take the carpet away....
2015-12-10 18:01:11 fib1618: guess this is as good as any time for some sort of shake out
2015-12-10 18:01:23 fib1618: and all leading up to next week
2015-12-10 18:01:35 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-10 18:01:37 tuna: Can you comment on the NYA volume MCO?
2015-12-10 18:01:53 fib1618: let me look
2015-12-10 18:02:47 fib1618: NYSE CO volume MCO broke above its accelerated declining tops line
2015-12-10 18:03:08 fib1618: as did the Composite
2015-12-10 18:03:30 fib1618: but until we see these two MCO's move above their snapback highs of last Friday
2015-12-10 18:03:47 fib1618: along with the breadth data in the OEX and Dow showing the most amount of strength today
2015-12-10 18:04:03 fib1618: this move is more than likely part of NYSE short covering of more heavily weighted issues
2015-12-10 18:04:13 fib1618: and nothing in the way of fresh money
2015-12-10 18:04:18 fib1618: let me look at the rest
2015-12-10 18:04:56 fib1618: the biggest problem for the market right now
2015-12-10 18:05:02 fib1618: and why it remains "heavy"
2015-12-10 18:05:31 fib1618: is that the NYSE volume MCSUM's, along with the SPX volume MCSUM, are below their zero lines
2015-12-10 18:05:40 fib1618: and when we have this
2015-12-10 18:05:54 fib1618: it's very, very difficult for prices to rally for more than a day at a time
2015-12-10 18:06:11 fib1618: the OEX volume MCSUM is now also below its zero line
2015-12-10 18:06:27 fib1618: as are the MID and SML
2015-12-10 18:06:40 fib1618: though not as weak as the NYSE
2015-12-10 18:06:50 fib1618: like we pointed to on Tuesday
2015-12-10 18:07:30 fib1618: it would be reasonable to believe that if the broadest indicator of market health is leading to the downside
2015-12-10 18:07:44 fib1618: that it would only be a matter of time before it takes everyone else along for the ride
2015-12-10 18:07:51 fib1618: and that's why
2015-12-10 18:08:04 fib1618: a full defensive stance is the best positioning at this time
2015-12-10 18:08:26 fib1618: TM volume MCSUM will move down and through as soon as Friday
2015-12-10 18:08:44 fib1618: so any kind of bad start in the morning could really see things fall apart in the afternoon
2015-12-10 18:09:46 fib1618: checking the futures...and they're up at this time
2015-12-10 18:09:52 tuna: WLSH vol summ looks to be going through 0 line on any down movement
2015-12-10 18:10:04 fib1618: it's really a do or die situation with the buyers now
2015-12-10 18:10:10 fib1618: yes sir
2015-12-10 18:10:24 fib1618: no sign as yet of a bottom
2015-12-10 18:10:47 fib1618: anything else?
2015-12-10 18:10:59 tuna: Thanks Dave
2015-12-10 18:11:40 fib1618: well...hopefully we can make some good money on this to make up for the sloppiness of November
2015-12-10 18:12:05 rite01: Great session
2015-12-10 18:12:11 fib1618: just a couple of mentions here
2015-12-10 18:12:41 fib1618: first thing is that I have a tradeshow coming up from January 8th to the 12th
2015-12-10 18:12:45 fib1618: not in Vegas [smile]
2015-12-10 18:12:57 fib1618: but we'll have to work around the dates early next month
2015-12-10 18:13:05 rite01: still no Vegas, strange
2015-12-10 18:13:15 fib1618: Vegas is 2/29 and 3/1
2015-12-10 18:13:35 fib1618: Vegas has become VERY expensive to do shows
2015-12-10 18:13:51 fib1618: and they're losing a lot of the smaller conventions now
2015-12-10 18:13:56 fib1618: so is So Cal
2015-12-10 18:14:18 fib1618: also because of when the holidays fall this year
2015-12-10 18:14:38 fib1618: the week of the 21st and 28th will be Monday/Tuesday chat sessions
2015-12-10 18:14:45 fib1618: and lastly
2015-12-10 18:15:13 fib1618: as of January 1st, subscription prices will be going up for NEW sign ups
2015-12-10 18:15:29 fib1618: but all of you will continue at the current rates
2015-12-10 18:15:57 fib1618: with anyone who signs up before the end of this month will keep current prices as well
2015-12-10 18:16:19 fib1618: so if you know of friend or family member out there that would benefit from these sessions and/or the breadth data
2015-12-10 18:16:29 rite01: Get the word out, will do
2015-12-10 18:16:42 fib1618: please let them know so at least they will have an opportunity to check it out
2015-12-10 18:16:47 fib1618: funny thing
2015-12-10 18:17:13 fib1618: I had no less than 3 people write me privately who told me the rates are still much too low
2015-12-10 18:17:19 fib1618: and I told them
2015-12-10 18:17:28 fib1618: this is not about making money off of others
2015-12-10 18:17:48 fib1618: its about sharing and paying forward lessons learned so that others can benefit
2015-12-10 18:18:00 fib1618: I hope I'm doing my job.
2015-12-10 18:18:05 fib1618: OK...with that
2015-12-10 18:18:09 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2015-12-10 18:18:16 fib1618: everyone have a super duper weekend
2015-12-10 18:18:18 rite01: Your are a rarity and so many do not get it
2015-12-10 18:18:32 fib1618: and we'll see how she looks next Tuesday (thank you Mike)
2015-12-10 18:18:35 fib1618: good night
2015-12-10 18:18:45 rite01: Good weekend to you too!

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