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Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-12-10 16:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-12-10 16:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-12-10 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-12-10 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and see what we have to work with
2013-12-10 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after giving us our obligatory snapback to or towards the zero line
2013-12-10 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2013-12-10 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled with a -27 reading
2013-12-10 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move lower has now strengthen the series of tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2013-12-10 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see how the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has now gaped to the downside today on the 21 day close up chart
2013-12-10 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we move toward our first challenge in testing the MCSUM lows of early October
2013-12-10 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-12-10 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see here that today's decline didn't quite have the same downside velocity to it compared with the commons
2013-12-10 16:17:39 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: intraday tick has been sick in spite of the pop in price Friday
2013-12-10 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with interest rates on the 10 year note reaching our upside target on Friday
2013-12-10 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lessening of selling pressure might be a prelude to a top in rates for the time being
2013-12-10 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Eric...
2013-12-10 16:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all time frames
2013-12-10 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it basically collapsed last week
2013-12-10 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about last week
2013-12-10 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we moved to lower lows on Thursday in many of the breadth MCO's
2013-12-10 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was enough weakness for our taking a defensive posture on the markets
2013-12-10 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we moved to new price highs quicker than we thought on Monday
2013-12-10 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be "on plan" at this point
2013-12-10 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is for some constructive evidence that the majority of this correctional process is now behind us
2013-12-10 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lesser degree of downside amplitude today in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is a good start
2013-12-10 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at this is really quite reasonable as well
2013-12-10 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the markets up over 20% or more this year alone
2013-12-10 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that many traders are in a profit taking mood
2013-12-10 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Christmas and New Year's holidays coming mid week this year
2013-12-10 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would probably be reasonable to see selling take place into the end of next week with quarterly OPEX coming next Friday
2013-12-10 16:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean that we WWW tomorrow
2013-12-10 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know how the boys in the pits tend to start rolling things over during this time
2013-12-10 16:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I think the bigger question will come after tomorrow...but before Monday of next week
2013-12-10 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we should start to see the smaller time frame intraday TICKS start to improve next week
2013-12-10 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's probably going to take a week to pull up the larger time frames
2013-12-10 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the way up to the hourly
2013-12-10 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point, it's not so much a worry as it's probably healthy
2013-12-10 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2013-12-10 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the yearly chart of the NYSE breadth breadth MCSUM on DP
2013-12-10 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that much of the decline has really been congested in its make up
2013-12-10 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the selling is there
2013-12-10 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's so overwhelming as to change the directional trend on a intermediate term basis
2013-12-10 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though if you listen to the bears
2013-12-10 16:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would think that we're looking over a cliff
2013-12-10 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that one slip is all that's needed for a 10% correction
2013-12-10 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a crash
2013-12-10 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not anywhere near the dynamic where something like this would or could happen
2013-12-10 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there would have to be two different scenarios to play out for that to happen
2013-12-10 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1st scenario is a Summation Failure
2013-12-10 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2013-12-10 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a Summation Failure set up includes a move in the MCSUM to around the +500 level...ideally above that
2013-12-10 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we move lower to the zero line
2013-12-10 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn higher in and around the zero line as the bulls attempt to re-establish control of the trend
2013-12-10 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but fail to get any takers and the MCSUM tops out below the +250 level
2013-12-10 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as it moves down and through the zero line
2013-12-10 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then have a "crash like" effect take place as we shift abruptly from bull to bear
2013-12-10 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "revolving door" analogy
2013-12-10 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is just so many people who can fit in the door
2013-12-10 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this causes a panic of sorts
2013-12-10 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other scenario would be a move down and through the zero line after failing to move above the +500 level on the RA NYSE breadth MCSUM
2013-12-10 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to or towards the zero line
2013-12-10 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a break below the recent lows would then make the market vulnerable to a longer term bearish trend
2013-12-10 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in both cases
2013-12-10 16:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would include an abrupt and "unexpected" change of opinion
2013-12-10 16:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know what happens to humans when they can't control or don't understand something
2013-12-10 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tend to panic
2013-12-10 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-10 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all that said
2013-12-10 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another component that tends to increase the odds of a crash like effect to take place
2013-12-10 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether or not the decline in the MCSUM prior to this zero line dance is showing expansion or contraction in its individual postings
2013-12-10 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expansion would suggest that money is moving out a faster rate which increases the odds of filling a vacuum quickly
2013-12-10 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while congested postings provide the insight that money is moving out of the market at a manageable clip
2013-12-10 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: backing and filling
2013-12-10 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing
2013-12-10 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...there's all these nuances that go with breadth dynamics that need to be addressed before we can provide a realistic outcome
2013-12-10 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-12-10 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things continue to look "manageable"
2013-12-10 16:38:43 [Message] tracca -> Chat: nicely defined; thank you
2013-12-10 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market continues to digest the idea that advent of higher prices will be based more on earnings growth as it would be that of putting your money somewhere for a better return
2013-12-10 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technical ANALYSIS is just that
2013-12-10 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if you read many writings of financial publications and message boards
2013-12-10 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market MUST do this or that because it DID this or that
2013-12-10 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not always true
2013-12-10 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which brings up the idea
2013-12-10 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "just because something should do something, doesn't mean it has to just to make things plausible"
2013-12-10 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a better word than plausible...but I couldn't think of it [smile]
2013-12-10 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2013-12-10 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many on the sell side are now saying, in essence, "since the market has gone up 20-30% in a year it MUST correct 10%-20% just find "balance"
2013-12-10 16:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, yes, it might need to
2013-12-10 16:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you still have to have the ingredients in place for that to happen
2013-12-10 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just won't happen because it should
2013-12-10 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is just opinion
2013-12-10 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has no real basis in ANALYSIS
2013-12-10 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why many fundamentalists can't grasp what we do as technicians
2013-12-10 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2013-12-10 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to its zero line on Monday
2013-12-10 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved to lower lows today
2013-12-10 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it reamains above its rising bottoms line going back to August of this year
2013-12-10 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-12-10 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this break to a lower low
2013-12-10 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now know that it's going to take a good week or two before we can again construct an internal bottom that would counter this break of support
2013-12-10 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-12-10 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bottom above a bottom
2013-12-10 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these things take time
2013-12-10 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...looking at the components here
2013-12-10 16:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that only the 10% Trend is below the zero line
2013-12-10 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that this is a corrective sequence at this time
2013-12-10 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we already knew this last week
2013-12-10 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-12-10 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we discussed what the likely outcome of this correction would likely be
2013-12-10 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that we would see an "oversold" bounce on near term
2013-12-10 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could see new higher highs in prices sooner than later
2013-12-10 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "check"
2013-12-10 16:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that's accomplished
2013-12-10 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then back and fill in an attempt to build texture between the MCO and prices
2013-12-10 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a downside target given of around 3900 still on the table
2013-12-10 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM already having moved to a lower low last month
2013-12-10 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a pretty good chance that we're likely to see a zero line test before this correctional process is concluded
2013-12-10 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how it moves lower
2013-12-10 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the time it takes to get there
2013-12-10 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will then help us sharpen our proverbial pencils as to exactly when we should look for a tradable low
2013-12-10 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2013-12-10 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're only dealing with either a trading range of triangle as the likely outcomes of this same correctional process
2013-12-10 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2013-12-10 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we don't see a lot of selling in this basket of stocks
2013-12-10 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should then help support the larger Composite index during this same pause to refresh
2013-12-10 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that both of the components of the NDX MCO remain above their zero lines
2013-12-10 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain more on a hold signal than anything more negative at this time
2013-12-10 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we do have to keep an eye on though
2013-12-10 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is with the NDX breadth MCSUM as it has now broken to the downside of its longer term symmetrical triangle
2013-12-10 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the October lows get blown out
2013-12-10 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will only be then where we will get downside price objectives
2013-12-10 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means that prices can actually trend lower from current levels
2013-12-10 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then
2013-12-10 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of any pullback will continue to be shallow
2013-12-10 16:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with only a brief burst of energy enabling prices to move to higher highs
2013-12-10 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...all the space shuttle needs when it's orbit is a small burst of energy to climb to a higher orbit
2013-12-10 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that changes the lower the orbit becomes
2013-12-10 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's been a good plan to shy away from the NDX on a short trade
2013-12-10 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting more confidence in the SPX as it broke below both prior lows in the breadth and volume MCO's last week
2013-12-10 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-12-10 16:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2013-12-10 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is more a large cap correction
2013-12-10 16:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than it is a mid or small cap one
2013-12-10 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of the SPX
2013-12-10 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the SPX breadth MCO was able to meet our expectation of a snapback to where we previously had a short term rising bottoms line
2013-12-10 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that's done
2013-12-10 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now move lower again to begin the process of constructing an internal bottom
2013-12-10 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the plan last week was to snapback toward the MCO zero line and then see a small decline in an attempt to diverge
2013-12-10 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll likely see a more pronounced snapback all the way up to the zero line
2013-12-10 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way things are moving right now
2013-12-10 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that snapback to the zero line is likely to be seen early next week at the latest
2013-12-10 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an outside chance of this Friday
2013-12-10 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though with the SPX breadth MCSUM now at a +518 reading
2013-12-10 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess we could see this kind of strength come in as soon as Thursday as the MCSUM attempts to hold natural support
2013-12-10 17:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX
2013-12-10 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to see the same patterns here as we do with the SPX
2013-12-10 17:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full snapback to the zero line in the Dow breadth MCO before it moved sharply lower today
2013-12-10 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't forget
2013-12-10 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow breadth MCSUM still well above the +750 level
2013-12-10 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see any kind of collapse in prices near term
2013-12-10 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-12-10 17:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the timing of the Fed's meeting next week
2013-12-10 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're close to the +500 level by that time
2013-12-10 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that "might be" enough to allow a shake out
2013-12-10 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it shouldn't be any weaker than 15,750
2013-12-10 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have snapback support
2013-12-10 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCO
2013-12-10 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see a text book snapback to the zero line completed
2013-12-10 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're repelling away from this same demarcation point
2013-12-10 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2013-12-10 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to moving into the apex of a large symmetrical pattern
2013-12-10 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the smaller the degree of travel within this triangle
2013-12-10 17:06:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: two ledges with MID MCSUM?
2013-12-10 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more compression that's being built in the underlying pattern
2013-12-10 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...two ledges would be a rarity
2013-12-10 17:07:22 [Message] tracca -> Chat: 750 and at 580 levels
2013-12-10 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though I don't know I would call a one day hesitation plot a ledge per se
2013-12-10 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ledges tend to last about 4 trading days as we know
2013-12-10 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we tend to see more than just one day trading pause
2013-12-10 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I would still call it one ledge and one MCO snapback hesitation point
2013-12-10 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure though
2013-12-10 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCSUM is showing how weak bearish traders have been in their convictions
2013-12-10 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little in the way of trend development in the MCSUM structure
2013-12-10 17:09:53 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I think it was 775 and at 610 levels. Two ledges might it not precede the last down swing?
2013-12-10 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first bounce at +750 we can label as a fishhook
2013-12-10 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hesitation after that...OK...we'll call it a ledge
2013-12-10 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't believe that it would be fair to call  the recent one day snapback to the MCO zero line, without the benefit of seeing the MCO bounce in and around this same zero line for more than one day, "ledge" worthy
2013-12-10 17:12:04 [Message] tracca -> Chat: better to be cautious
2013-12-10 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern overall though is certainly not showing the kind of bearish strength that would suggest that control was changing hands
2013-12-10 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2013-12-10 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2013-12-10 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're always cautious
2013-12-10 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but ledges take place for one reason only
2013-12-10 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are a point in the pattern where we have usually already seen the largest climax in selling
2013-12-10 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that this vacuum, or imbalance, is being filled to provide balance
2013-12-10 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-12-10 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM had moved to below -50 last week
2013-12-10 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an then bounced higher
2013-12-10 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we would likely see more than just a day of snapback
2013-12-10 17:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note where the MID breadth MCSUM resides right now
2013-12-10 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we remain above the +500 level
2013-12-10 17:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any opportunities for ledges to develop tends to be rare
2013-12-10 17:16:12 [Message] tracca -> Chat: my point with these two bearish pattern coming one after another is that they also mark the end of bear as I remember you talking about.  So, I see a weak bear, and coming of the bull according to what I learned from you.
2013-12-10 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be...
2013-12-10 17:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a good point
2013-12-10 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but historically speaking
2013-12-10 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a rare event to have a fishhook and a ledge by themselves in a sequence
2013-12-10 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to have two ledges...well...I seem to remember it happening in the past
2013-12-10 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's rare
2013-12-10 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think its really semantics
2013-12-10 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2013-12-10 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're closer to a bottom than we are to a top
2013-12-10 17:17:59 [Message] tracca -> Chat: that's it.
2013-12-10 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the labeling
2013-12-10 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: understood
2013-12-10 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no argument
2013-12-10 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just providing clarity
2013-12-10 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thanks for the input
2013-12-10 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2013-12-10 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here, just like in the NASDAQ, we see we moved to a lower low today
2013-12-10 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2013-12-10 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like we settled right on the rising bottoms line from August
2013-12-10 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we seem to have an important day or two coming up here
2013-12-10 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much in what prices are likely to do
2013-12-10 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in whether or not the longer term uptrend in this MCO can remain in place or not
2013-12-10 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a break of these rising bottoms lines are the first part of what CAN turn the direction of an existing trend
2013-12-10 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for as breadth of market goes, so go prices
2013-12-10 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on this
2013-12-10 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2013-12-10 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains above last weeks lows at this time
2013-12-10 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-12-10 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the correctional process continues
2013-12-10 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we enter the 2nd phase where we look for texture to develop so that the ongoing trend can be maintained in prices
2013-12-10 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...we've had lower lows in the MCO's
2013-12-10 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then snapbacks
2013-12-10 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now it's up to the sellers as to whether they can break the back of the trend or not
2013-12-10 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by moving to still lower lows on many of the breadth MCO's
2013-12-10 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ and SML MCO's in particular
2013-12-10 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to break their longer term rising trend lines
2013-12-10 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of these lines would then help extend the time it will take of this current correction to early January
2013-12-10 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2013-12-10 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still on target for a mid December low
2013-12-10 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2013-12-10 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that there was very little selling pressure so far in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO
2013-12-10 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and if you look at the 1 year NYA price chart now
2013-12-10 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can now start to see the consolidation taking the form of a trading range
2013-12-10 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 9800 providing ultimate support to the pattern if the 10,000 level breaks
2013-12-10 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the continue to remain above last weeks MCO lows
2013-12-10 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 10,000 should continue to hold
2013-12-10 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's call it 9960
2013-12-10 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart for that number
2013-12-10 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bad as the NASDAQ breadth MCO looked today
2013-12-10 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO isn't confirm the weakness here
2013-12-10 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because prices are better related to the trend of volume
2013-12-10 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this helps us in determining that prices will likely continue to be buoyant near term
2013-12-10 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 4025 keeping price support for now
2013-12-10 17:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-12-10 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NASDAQ volume MCO holds its zero line here and moves to a higher high
2013-12-10 17:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have another bottom above bottom in place
2013-12-10 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the buyers though
2013-12-10 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would love to see a break above the +500 level in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2013-12-10 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they can get that
2013-12-10 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could see quite a run in prices to the upside
2013-12-10 17:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our next price target there is around 4250
2013-12-10 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NDX volume MCO
2013-12-10 17:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look how bullish this area is right now
2013-12-10 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the MCO and it's components above their zero lines
2013-12-10 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is pushing the intermediate trend to the upside as measured by the NDX volume MCSUM
2013-12-10 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continued expansion there would be a highly bullish event overall
2013-12-10 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for the Q's
2013-12-10 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to zero also complete on the SPX volume MCO
2013-12-10 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not seeing too much in the way of heavy selling right now
2013-12-10 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is likely to keep prices from falling apart near term
2013-12-10 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...if this keeps up
2013-12-10 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts are going to get burned badly here
2013-12-10 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX volume MCO
2013-12-10 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the SPX and OEX volume MCSUM's attempting to hold their +500 levels
2013-12-10 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they do so
2013-12-10 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will continue to keep prices from declining in any important way for a while
2013-12-10 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be looked back on as a simple pause to refresh in an aggressive uptrend
2013-12-10 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the development now of trading ranges in the SPX and OEX one year price charts
2013-12-10 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too much to add to the Dow data
2013-12-10 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to digest its gains
2013-12-10 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCSUM remains congested with both sides congested postings
2013-12-10 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and definitive trading range on the MID
2013-12-10 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we got lower lows today in the SML volume MCO to match that of its breadth cousin
2013-12-10 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll need to watch this basket of stocks here
2013-12-10 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they will need to build some internal structure before we'll likely to be "good to go" for the market in general
2013-12-10 17:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the consolidation pattern on the SML price chart appears to be a triangle
2013-12-10 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it is
2013-12-10 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should not take out the 640 level by very much
2013-12-10 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do
2013-12-10 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we certainly can with these new MCO lows
2013-12-10 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we'll have to see if 625 will hold the pattern in check in what would eventually be a larger trading range
2013-12-10 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and very little downside movement in the TM volume MCO today
2013-12-10 17:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how congested the individual postings have been for both sides over the last month on the TM volume MCSUM
2013-12-10 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-12-10 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to digest the gains of the fall period
2013-12-10 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little aggressive selling being seen...except in the small caps
2013-12-10 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could partially be because of maybe a re-balancing may be taking place next week
2013-12-10 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could very well be just a simple case of taking profits after being up 27% for the year
2013-12-10 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2013-12-10 17:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and STVO's are neutral
2013-12-10 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2013-12-10 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the VTO's giving mixed signals for now
2013-12-10 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a couple saying uptrend
2013-12-10 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the others, not
2013-12-10 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.14
2013-12-10 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2013-12-10 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see numbers above 1.10 before we're likely be ready to go again
2013-12-10 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .54
2013-12-10 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2013-12-10 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2013-12-10 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .73
2013-12-10 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2013-12-10 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2013-12-10 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....yawn
2013-12-10 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that if we're going to see any real action here for the rest of the week, it's likely to be tomorrow
2013-12-10 17:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's keep an eye on the breadth MCO's as we are now in the process of seeing whether or not the great majority of selling is now out of the way or not
2013-12-10 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any open longs with appropriate stops in place
2013-12-10 17:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing as yet suggested that we should take any more than just a defensive posture at this time
2013-12-10 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any short positions remain "hit and run" for now
2013-12-10 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-12-10 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-12-10 17:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will bid you all a fond adieu
2013-12-10 17:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2013-12-10 17:50:48 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: thanks
2013-12-10 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if anything breaks on Thursday
2013-12-10 17:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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