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Posts: 4,882
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-09 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-09 16:00:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: How are you today fib?
2010-11-09 16:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2010-11-09 16:00:50 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good to hear. Interesting day
2010-11-09 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indeed
2010-11-09 16:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seemed like the market was struggling for the last couple of days
2010-11-09 16:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not too surprising that we got the intraday reversal
2010-11-09 16:01:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: Financial data set really got clobbered today
2010-11-09 16:03:57 [Message] darris -> Chat: Silver was the really big item of the day. 3 dollar range today, and nasty stick. Hiker says hello
2010-11-09 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions of comments before we get started??
2010-11-09 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-11-09 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to minimally "overbought" levels on Monday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO snapped back to around its zero line today
2010-11-09 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, we closed below it with a reading of -9
2010-11-09 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components that make up this MCO
2010-11-09 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we had a cross over sell generated today
2010-11-09 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2010-11-09 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 10% and 5% TRENDS remain well above their zero line
2010-11-09 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that today's move lower was that of a simple correction in a powerful uptrend
2010-11-09 16:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully it was enough of a move to get indicators, like the Open 10, back to be more neutral levels
2010-11-09 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-11-09 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can also play with the idea that we may have seen a top in this indicator given the inverted ledge structure that was traced out before we moved to higher highs last week
2010-11-09 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the price action of the NYA
2010-11-09 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll note that all that today did was provide our obligatory snapback to the April highs resistance line
2010-11-09 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this point
2010-11-09 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although it was a dramatic day from beginning to end
2010-11-09 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear to be nothing more than a simple shake out move by the market with a bounce near term indicated
2010-11-09 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how the other indicators look before we draw upon this as a conclusion or not
2010-11-09 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO and its components continue to move in sync with the CO data
2010-11-09 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too we're looking at a simple correction
2010-11-09 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what does remain our focus, however, is the level in which this occurred with the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-11-09 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we discussed on Thursday
2010-11-09 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the bulls to be able to move above the recent highs on the MCSUM
2010-11-09 16:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hesitation above this level might give us a multi week correction
2010-11-09 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the A/D lines that were posted this past weekend
2010-11-09 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that any correction will be more with time as it would be in price
2010-11-09 16:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...a sideways consolidation would remain the best option on any possible correction
2010-11-09 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no trend to the downside would be able to develop at this stage
2010-11-09 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day on the COMPQ
2010-11-09 16:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now close half of the gap created last Thursday
2010-11-09 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the measuring gap idea is becoming a lower probability
2010-11-09 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might need to close the gap in total...hard to say here
2010-11-09 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do abruptly turn higher from here...the measuring gap would be confirmed upon a close above Friday's highs
2010-11-09 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the gap theory with the NDX
2010-11-09 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing how this market is in total sync right now
2010-11-09 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback on the SPX today to the April breakout point
2010-11-09 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCSUM starting to find some resistance near the +1000 level
2010-11-09 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line on the SPX breadth MCO so a bounce is indicated here with the components remain fully above their zero line
2010-11-09 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning correction
2010-11-09 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX
2010-11-09 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the Dow
2010-11-09 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a pause to refresh after the breakout so far
2010-11-09 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the charts look basically the same
2010-11-09 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-09 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go to the volume McClellan's and see if we have any further clues there
2010-11-09 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to zero on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2010-11-09 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CO NYSE volume MCSUM right up against the previous highs
2010-11-09 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCSUM continues to look OK
2010-11-09 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line on the NYSE volume MCO
2010-11-09 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is right in gear here
2010-11-09 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no breakdown evidenced in the NASDAQ volume McClellan's
2010-11-09 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor the NDX
2010-11-09 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX (so far) held up the best today
2010-11-09 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no crossover sell on the Dow volume MCO components
2010-11-09 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't short that
2010-11-09 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you run through the rest of the charts, there doesn't seem to be anything worth "reacting" to as yet
2010-11-09 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it an exhaustion move
2010-11-09 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what I would be looking for later on this evening
2010-11-09 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to see how people are responding to the intraday reversal
2010-11-09 16:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you see lots of calls of top
2010-11-09 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you know that the market did its job in shifting opinion quickly enough to re-enforce the wall of worry
2010-11-09 16:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a bit of a malaise the last couple of days
2010-11-09 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should wake up those who have been disappointed that the market continues to move higher in the face of "overwhelming" negative technicals
2010-11-09 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-09 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many will point to the Dollar
2010-11-09 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's bring up a daily chart of the Dollar and apply a 20 day EMA
2010-11-09 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main point for now
2010-11-09 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that all though we closed above the 20 day EMA today
2010-11-09 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also did so a week or so ago when everyone was screaming bottom
2010-11-09 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-09 16:35:54 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: 20 EMA is rising. Does that matter?
2010-11-09 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around, however, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we're probably going to test the highs of two weeks ago...but I wouldn't expect much more
2010-11-09 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it always matters Tonny....
2010-11-09 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it important?
2010-11-09 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...for is
2010-11-09 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the turn up happened today
2010-11-09 16:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall
2010-11-09 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily chart remains in a bearish configuration
2010-11-09 16:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that the 20 day EMA is leading the 50 day that's is leading the 200 day to the downside
2010-11-09 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with price closing above the 20 day today
2010-11-09 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be labeled as being in a corrective bearish configuration
2010-11-09 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we can see, there's still a whole lot of work to be done before the dollar can even consider reversing the current downtrend
2010-11-09 16:38:13 [Message] tracca -> Chat: how is the retail business, new orders picking up momentum?
2010-11-09 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I sell wholesale and bulk
2010-11-09 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but business remains very soft
2010-11-09 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like when I talk to my suppliers...competitors...and many customers
2010-11-09 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all thinking the same thing
2010-11-09 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "if we can only survive until things turn around, we're all going to be making a ton of money as we're the only ones who fought though the problems"
2010-11-09 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if things don't turn around soon...many will be pushed over the edge
2010-11-09 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED knows this
2010-11-09 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the current stimulative policy
2010-11-09 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me
2010-11-09 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you knew how bearish my business is/has been
2010-11-09 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would be hard pressed to believe that I can maintain a bullish posture with the markets
2010-11-09 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the markets runs on different fuel
2010-11-09 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to separate the two or you're doomed
2010-11-09 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...where was I?
2010-11-09 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...the dollar
2010-11-09 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the chart
2010-11-09 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you now apply and 19 day and 39 day EMA to the dollar chart
2010-11-09 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see a reflection of the McClellan Summation Index
2010-11-09 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between these two EMA's is the level below the MCSUM zero line you are
2010-11-09 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wider the spread
2010-11-09 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the negative reading
2010-11-09 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the 19 day EMA has turned up today?
2010-11-09 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would indicate that the Dollar's 10% Trend Component has moved above its zero line
2010-11-09 16:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% component remains below
2010-11-09 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you had a MCO then
2010-11-09 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than would have gone positive today
2010-11-09 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not on a confirmed buy signal
2010-11-09 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-11-09 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO above its zero line for the Dollar
2010-11-09 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM still below its zero line
2010-11-09 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should expect the price action to do?
2010-11-09 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if both the short term trend and the intermediate term trend is not in ....
2010-11-09 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2010-11-09 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no trend
2010-11-09 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either direction
2010-11-09 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's what we should expect for now
2010-11-09 16:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: choppy sideways movement
2010-11-09 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a trading range
2010-11-09 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 78 on the high side
2010-11-09 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call the 76 level the lower range
2010-11-09 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-09 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the 19 day turns down again
2010-11-09 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would generate a MCO sell
2010-11-09 16:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the down trend will re-initiate itself
2010-11-09 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line
2010-11-09 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the time to go out and sell gold and buy the dollar
2010-11-09 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...its a hard and fast correction within a hard and fast trend
2010-11-09 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the dollar
2010-11-09 16:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will usually see spike bottoms
2010-11-09 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we would see spike tops in gold
2010-11-09 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be that started today
2010-11-09 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one day does not give us enough substantive information to work with
2010-11-09 16:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is something that needs our respect for what it MAY imply
2010-11-09 16:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-11-09 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try not to be too impulsive here based on your emotion
2010-11-09 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let things work themselves out
2010-11-09 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we've already seen this happen before and dollar bulls/gold bears got hung out to dry
2010-11-09 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed
2010-11-09 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend in both charts remain
2010-11-09 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the sector volume MCO's
2010-11-09 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got a nice breakdown today in the consumer staples
2010-11-09 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: energy remains very strong
2010-11-09 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF needs to desperately see some love in the next day or so or we're going to move back below the 15 level
2010-11-09 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a ton of money left the heath care sector today
2010-11-09 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another defensive sector got hit today
2010-11-09 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and generally speaking
2010-11-09 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCSUM's are really starting to look worn out
2010-11-09 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wouldn't be too surprising that after we find support near term
2010-11-09 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see the market bounce
2010-11-09 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the bounce will probably be the final push higher for a while
2010-11-09 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market desperately needs a rest
2010-11-09 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-11-09 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the MCO's break down
2010-11-09 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very best we can expect here is a choppy market place
2010-11-09 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a triangle
2010-11-09 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a horizontal trading range
2010-11-09 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each chart will have its own personalities to work with
2010-11-09 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's call today another "off the bow" salvo
2010-11-09 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the CVI's suggested on Thursday that a price top would appear in the next two trading sessions
2010-11-09 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got that on Friday
2010-11-09 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now they're back to their zero lines
2010-11-09 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are "overbought"
2010-11-09 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and VTO's remain bullish
2010-11-09 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too cool...not too hot
2010-11-09 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.56
2010-11-09 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2010-11-09 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little south of being "oversold"
2010-11-09 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could allow another soft day on Wednesday
2010-11-09 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember that with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-11-09 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will still be VERY difficult for prices to decline and HOLD those declines
2010-11-09 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will tend to move back to neutral very quickly after any selling pressure wanes
2010-11-09 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're playing this as a scalper
2010-11-09 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still a hit and run market
2010-11-09 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2010-11-09 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "overbought" with a .75 reading
2010-11-09 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.05
2010-11-09 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .83
2010-11-09 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just south of being "overbought"
2010-11-09 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-09 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term question of importance is whether or not the NASDAQ gaps will be filled or not
2010-11-09 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s end of day sell off was to get enough traders to either take profits or to sell their positions on the open tomorrow
2010-11-09 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very characteristic of key points in a price pattern when a snapback is needed before proceeding
2010-11-09 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of other importance is that we have to once again bring up the point of the 21 day and 55 day SMA of the TRIN are now at very "overbought" levels
2010-11-09 17:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen how the market has reacted in the past when we've seen this
2010-11-09 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so cockiness in that the uptrend will continue for a while longer isn't such a good plan either
2010-11-09 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to wait for more information
2010-11-09 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's duly noted as potentially being a real problem until we can relieve this current condition
2010-11-09 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what else shall we talk about...anything out there that you guys want to bring up??
2010-11-09 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...the Dow picked up 50 points in the last 10 minutes today
2010-11-09 17:07:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: www tomorrow, I expect a scare bottom and reversal
2010-11-09 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's dangerous to play this market intraday other than by hit and running
2010-11-09 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be
2010-11-09 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems to be necessary here
2010-11-09 17:08:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-11-09 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we partially closed Thursday's NDX gap today
2010-11-09 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no problems now on putting a fill of the gap on the front burner
2010-11-09 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many are talking about double tops
2010-11-09 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, but the way, the daily volume is not at showing this to be a correct interpretation
2010-11-09 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it makes for good conversation
2010-11-09 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...I have my shopping list ready
2010-11-09 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as I said last Thursday
2010-11-09 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have tight stops right now on my Cores
2010-11-09 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nasty reversal today in the PM's
2010-11-09 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've seen that before
2010-11-09 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what else is on your collective minds since the market hasn't given us much to work with today?
2010-11-09 17:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how's the chatter out there on the message boards?
2010-11-09 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over at TT it's non existent
2010-11-09 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that we should be looking at?
2010-11-09 17:17:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: market looks to be losing momentum, I'm not looking for a lot on the next move up
2010-11-09 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, I guess it would depend on how quickly we get to "oversold"
2010-11-09 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and momentum is not the problem
2010-11-09 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fuel is
2010-11-09 17:17:53 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The SPX stopped 1 point short of the .618 retracement from the 2007 top to the 666 bottom
2010-11-09 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw that
2010-11-09 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's 1230 or something like that?
2010-11-09 17:18:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes just below 1230
2010-11-09 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the bottom line that you must consider here
2010-11-09 17:19:06 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Can we read something into that?
2010-11-09 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-11-09 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the start to decline here
2010-11-09 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a very high probability that we're going to see higher highs in price first before we see any kind of longer term correctional period that could develop into a downtrend
2010-11-09 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to have the market find resistance at a point in which many analysts have been looking out "could have been" the trigger for the sell off today
2010-11-09 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Space Shuttle launches
2010-11-09 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it expels more energy at the blast off point than it does the higher it moves away from the pull of gravity
2010-11-09 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even when the engines shut down
2010-11-09 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does the shuttle stop its forward motion?
2010-11-09 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer, or course, is no
2010-11-09 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless an equal force is applied to slow this same momentum
2010-11-09 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like being in a car and running out of gas
2010-11-09 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the car will continue to move forward
2010-11-09 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: albeit at a reduced pace
2010-11-09 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will not stop moving forward until momentum is lost or you apply the brake
2010-11-09 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same concept happens here
2010-11-09 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even though we're at a .618 point in the pattern
2010-11-09 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely we're going to see .768 retracement before we run out of forward momentum
2010-11-09 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would fry the bears
2010-11-09 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those who are still standing will have thrown in the towel and gone long
2010-11-09 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never underestimate the markets motives
2010-11-09 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing how prices are likely to respond to breadth of market becomes highly important when one applies this information to other methodologies
2010-11-09 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2010-11-09 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though we were repelled at the .618 retracement
2010-11-09 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what exactly are the odds that we'll see this point again?
2010-11-09 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are...the chances are excellent
2010-11-09 17:26:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 100 percent, lol
2010-11-09 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...nothing is a given
2010-11-09 17:26:32 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-09 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds are highly favorable
2010-11-09 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we deal in probabilities and their potential outcomes
2010-11-09 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if the MCSUM had already been declining
2010-11-09 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and turned up last week
2010-11-09 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we generated bear divergence
2010-11-09 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had this nice nasty reversal bar today at the .618 retracement level
2010-11-09 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN your odds of a trending reversal would be quite high
2010-11-09 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the energy, and its momentum, has decreased enough where an opposite force can then be applied
2010-11-09 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money leads the direction of prices
2010-11-09 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices do NOT lead money
2010-11-09 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can be manipulated to produce a cause and effect
2010-11-09 17:29:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: a good source of sentiment is Mark Hulberts bullish/bearish values. The NDX got high at 80 last week, and this week the SPX was at 62 this week. This can be read about at CNBC market watch as he wrote an article about it today. I am not sure what the absolute high and low ranges are for his numbers.
2010-11-09 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money flow is the one ingredient that makes prices move one way or the other
2010-11-09 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2010-11-09 17:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're an Elliottician
2010-11-09 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high sentiment values are generally seen at 5th wave highs
2010-11-09 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the options we did talk about last Thursday was that the gap on the daily charts could had been one of exhaustion
2010-11-09 17:30:26 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: There is kind of a bear divergence on the NYSE Composite MCSUM. At least a potential bear divergence if it continues to decline
2010-11-09 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, the key word being "potential"
2010-11-09 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergences are always with us
2010-11-09 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their importance is dependent of their triggers
2010-11-09 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like price pattern breakouts
2010-11-09 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you see a triangle, for example, it only has the "potential" of a breakout in one direction or the other
2010-11-09 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can always run sideways
2010-11-09 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so its very important to be careful on how we perceive structures and such
2010-11-09 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's there
2010-11-09 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can either be blown out
2010-11-09 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it can increase in value
2010-11-09 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians
2010-11-09 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will ALWAYS have the advantage
2010-11-09 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we don't lead off
2010-11-09 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the pattern unwind
2010-11-09 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market increase your odds of success based on certain repetitive characteristics
2010-11-09 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even when they work must apply stops
2010-11-09 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a major advantage of just remaining neutral
2010-11-09 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't care which way the wind blows as long as we're riding with it and not against it
2010-11-09 17:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-09 17:35:02 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The 10 SMA of OEX put call, does not suggest a top, I would say
2010-11-09 17:35:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is supposedly what the Wed before OPEX is all about, as in stop runs and shake outs, and then basically straight back up
2010-11-09 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at that
2010-11-09 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX 10 day P/C ratio is foaming at the mouth
2010-11-09 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to shake that tree
2010-11-09 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean
2010-11-09 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: premiums are going to deflate in a hurry
2010-11-09 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be careful all you option players out there
2010-11-09 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about this?
2010-11-09 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 5 of III just ended from the August lows?
2010-11-09 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would allow a couple of weeks of sideways action
2010-11-09 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in preparation for a final high in December
2010-11-09 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then January a indecisive month
2010-11-09 17:38:08 [Message] darris -> Chat: Randy indicated the IBD call premium was at a nine year high this week. 2003 was OK for more up in time, 2008, well, that was a bust. I think that is what he mentioned, but I do not follow that data, so not absolutely sure.
2010-11-09 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me either...maybe he'll have time to make a quick post on it if he reads this
2010-11-09 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look - we all know that the internals are overheated
2010-11-09 17:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that the bulls have had continuing problems in showing much in the way of all out conviction of the trend over the last month
2010-11-09 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2010-11-09 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend remains higher
2010-11-09 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't be in our best interest to disrespect that
2010-11-09 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's see what will happen tomorrow
2010-11-09 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be watching the action primarily after 14:00 tomorrow
2010-11-09 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the day will basically mean little at this point
2010-11-09 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you're shorting...don't get married here...better to be flirty if anything
2010-11-09 17:41:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: Futures are firm right now with the Nikkei rally (Yen dropped a lot today). Gold up 10 off the low I saw, and Silver almost a dollar
2010-11-09 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...shake outs are hard and fast
2010-11-09 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are meant to create emotion
2010-11-09 17:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you trade emotionally, you tend to lose focus
2010-11-09 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath...and let's see what happens tomorrow
2010-11-09 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a one or two more days of chop and then we're off to the races be very careful
2010-11-09 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do not underestimate the underlying power of this market
2010-11-09 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-09 17:43:19 [Message] darris -> Chat: With that, spx 1180-1185 should be the Alert zone if seen, but I do not see that happening at this point. fair enough?
2010-11-09 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair enough
2010-11-09 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a snapback at this point
2010-11-09 17:43:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: Agreed
2010-11-09 17:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would treat it as such until proven otherwise
2010-11-09 17:43:53 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good view
2010-11-09 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't go up day after day forever
2010-11-09 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there MUST be breaks in the texture of the pattern
2010-11-09 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other comments?
2010-11-09 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2010-11-09 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just the interpreter of what the market is saying
2010-11-09 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't care what you feel or think
2010-11-09 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is your enemy
2010-11-09 17:45:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: Trade what you see, not what you think. Good one
2010-11-09 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-11-09 17:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-11-09 17:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-11-09 17:45:36 [Message] darris -> Chat: have a good evening, and thanks
2010-11-09 17:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a good day or two
2010-11-09 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2010-11-09 17:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-09 17:46:03 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Good night

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