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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-08 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: A pleasant good day to everyone
2012-11-08 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are we doin?
2012-11-08 16:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-08 16:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we begin
2012-11-08 16:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we have only one chat next week - Thursday
2012-11-08 16:02:52 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4
2012-11-08 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have 3 straight weeks of the Tuesday/Thursday format
2012-11-08 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to do a triple the week of December OPEX
2012-11-08 16:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with Christmas and New Years falling on a Tuesday this year
2012-11-08 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I thought we would do only Thursday's during that two week period
2012-11-08 16:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me know if that's OK with everyone
2012-11-08 16:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or....
2012-11-08 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can be dark the week of Christmas
2012-11-08 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and do a Wednesday 1/2 and Thursday 1/3 format?
2012-11-08 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think about it...
2012-11-08 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-11-08 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and let's see if we're still holding divergence
2012-11-08 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch
2012-11-08 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...we now have a new pattern to work with
2012-11-08 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO did not hold its divergence today
2012-11-08 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, moved to lower lows today
2012-11-08 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was personally hoping that we would hold today
2012-11-08 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the intraday TICK data was just collapsing all day
2012-11-08 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the result
2012-11-08 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-08 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can throw out the Elliott count now
2012-11-08 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of the complex ABC X ABC
2012-11-08 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be our fear here of early tax selling coming in
2012-11-08 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now the bears have been able to expand the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to the downside
2012-11-08 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite fared
2012-11-08 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke support as well
2012-11-08 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell signal
2012-11-08 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so this makes it easy
2012-11-08 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone who is long now has to make a decision
2012-11-08 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the funny thing is that my issues were all up today
2012-11-08 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're in the REIT and precious metals areas
2012-11-08 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did get our break of support in the yield of the 10 year note today as was the expectation from last weekends breadth charts
2012-11-08 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably why the interest rate sensitive stocks kind of bucked today's action
2012-11-08 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-08 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now extends the current pullback into at least December
2012-11-08 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the daily NYSE breadth MCSUM chart at DP
2012-11-08 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how it looks as though it fell off a cliff today
2012-11-08 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next area of potential support will come in at the zero line now
2012-11-08 16:13:09 [Message] tracca -> Chat: time to sell short has finally arrived?
2012-11-08 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem so
2012-11-08 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't run out and just to it willy nilly
2012-11-08 16:13:38 [Message] tracca -> Chat: of course
2012-11-08 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first area of support remains at the 8000 level on the NYA
2012-11-08 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our breaking below the .618 area today on the NASDAQ and NDX
2012-11-08 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we had another low number on the ISEE at 74
2012-11-08 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would wait for a bounce to short
2012-11-08 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the other problems here
2012-11-08 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2012-11-08 16:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have historic probabilities that a turn is likely like we've had over the last week or so
2012-11-08 16:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that fails
2012-11-08 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can become a most dangerous situation
2012-11-08 16:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the disappointment of the election
2012-11-08 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the statements coming from Dragni
2012-11-08 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation of higher taxes a certainty now
2012-11-08 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from the increase in Capital Gains...the current progressive tax will move up next year
2012-11-08 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the whole myriad of other taxes floating out there to support the debt of the US
2012-11-08 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a carbon tax, no less, an internet tax being talked about from the UN
2012-11-08 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: traders are nervous
2012-11-08 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have fuel prices
2012-11-08 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could turn out to be a minor annoyance
2012-11-08 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but taxes take away growth
2012-11-08 16:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and growth is what the market runs on
2012-11-08 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless of these fundamental ideas
2012-11-08 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very point of breaking to new lows in the short term trend of the MCO
2012-11-08 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the evidence suggested otherwise
2012-11-08 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is not a good omen
2012-11-08 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this can and will trigger the fiscal cliff scenario
2012-11-08 16:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: disappointing to be sure
2012-11-08 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...maybe...most of any selling here will be done now
2012-11-08 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and dry up by December OPEX
2012-11-08 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where
2012-11-08 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see
2012-11-08 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rally into the 1st quarter of 2013
2012-11-08 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what the MCSUM suggested once we moved to new highs at the end of August/beginning of September
2012-11-08 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though
2012-11-08 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2012-11-08 16:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't always know from WHERE these same advances (or declines) will start from
2012-11-08 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Apple is now down 160 points from its highs
2012-11-08 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's 23%
2012-11-08 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's more than what one would expect IF it was only correcting
2012-11-08 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-08 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longs should now have solid stops in place
2012-11-08 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick peak at the BETS
2012-11-08 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-11-08 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -10
2012-11-08 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still in cash
2012-11-08 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's no rush here
2012-11-08 16:25:51 [Message] tracca -> Chat: this decline occurred when liquidity was supporting the market
2012-11-08 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-11-08 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2012-11-08 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was supporting the market
2012-11-08 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until
2012-11-08 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday
2012-11-08 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have a rally on Monday, remember
2012-11-08 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on Tuesday
2012-11-08 16:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which held the NYA structure within its trading range
2012-11-08 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I think what may had happened is
2012-11-08 16:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once the election was out of the way
2012-11-08 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and people realized that it really didn't matter who was left in charge (as far as President is concerned)
2012-11-08 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-11-08 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing changed in Congress
2012-11-08 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the House has one majority
2012-11-08 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Senate the other
2012-11-08 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any decision making is going to be slow to happen
2012-11-08 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately
2012-11-08 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is still ample here
2012-11-08 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not like it all got thrown overboard in one or two days
2012-11-08 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what has happened is
2012-11-08 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been enough energy in the guise of money flow going out of the market
2012-11-08 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that a deeper point correction can now occur
2012-11-08 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for whatever the reason
2012-11-08 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can pontificate this and that all day long
2012-11-08 16:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the end of the day
2012-11-08 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2012-11-08 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have to follow that lead until proven otherwise
2012-11-08 16:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday...we had the final pieces in place for a market bottom
2012-11-08 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today, so far, it's been blown out
2012-11-08 16:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be it
2012-11-08 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we had a blueprint to follow
2012-11-08 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we will probably notice tonight
2012-11-08 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that many of the 250 multiple levels on the MCSUM's that we have been looking at as being probable support have now been broken
2012-11-08 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when that happens, you don't stand around and ask why
2012-11-08 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you react accordingly and get your answers later on
2012-11-08 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-08 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation for the last couple of weeks was that this was a corrective process
2012-11-08 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that no new buying was to be done
2012-11-08 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any longs held were to be with tight stops
2012-11-08 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any shorts were to be taken as daily events only
2012-11-08 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that has worked out pretty well
2012-11-08 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now
2012-11-08 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have new evidence that disputes this mode of operation
2012-11-08 16:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have our bear claws on
2012-11-08 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our bull hats off
2012-11-08 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: further more
2012-11-08 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain technically "oversold" I'm sure on many fronts
2012-11-08 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now
2012-11-08 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any relief rally is not one where you should be looking for leaders to the upside
2012-11-08 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any relief rally now is to be used to look for those sectors that do NOT participate in these same reflex points in the pattern
2012-11-08 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that you can make a timely short entry
2012-11-08 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the importance of breaking these lows in the MCO
2012-11-08 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2012-11-08 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will now take that much longer to rebuild what was destroyed by this same technical breakdown
2012-11-08 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no longer do we have texture
2012-11-08 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no longer do we have bottoms above bottoms controlling the pattern
2012-11-08 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to wit
2012-11-08 16:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no longer do the buyers have control
2012-11-08 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers have, finally, stepped up when they had to
2012-11-08 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think it was yesterday
2012-11-08 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we made the comment that
2012-11-08 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears were going to save this for themselves
2012-11-08 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they HAD to do it within a couple of days
2012-11-08 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe I even said by today
2012-11-08 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would have to read the scripts
2012-11-08 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are breaking down now
2012-11-08 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a full defensive position is warranted
2012-11-08 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our confirmation will come if the MID and SML have also broken down as well
2012-11-08 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move on and see what's going on
2012-11-08 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved to lower lows as well on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-11-08 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look what happened with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-11-08 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a gap expansion to the downside
2012-11-08 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2012-11-08 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break is taking place where we should had had support in the MCSUM...at -250
2012-11-08 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can expect that the next level of possible support will be at the -500 level
2012-11-08 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-11-08 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lower we go
2012-11-08 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weaker the structure becomes
2012-11-08 16:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-11-08 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the market is moving higher
2012-11-08 16:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen it gain better and better strength the higher the MCSUM moves
2012-11-08 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just equal and opposite here
2012-11-08 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trends are trends
2012-11-08 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter on the direction
2012-11-08 16:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-11-08 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing of the tradable top forecasted by the MCSUM for mid October was one for the books
2012-11-08 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls got every last ounce of advance before the plug was pulled on the NYA
2012-11-08 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, on the brighter side
2012-11-08 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has yet to break to new lows as yet
2012-11-08 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in fact
2012-11-08 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continues to support bottoms above bottoms in its structure
2012-11-08 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the negative side though
2012-11-08 16:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's lower reading in this MCO did break support of the rising bottoms line connecting the mid and end October lows
2012-11-08 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so based on this
2012-11-08 16:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a snapback to or towards this breakdown point within a day or two
2012-11-08 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before proceeding lower
2012-11-08 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technical bounces like this provide both exit points for the longs (in this case)
2012-11-08 16:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and areas to short for those so inclined to do so
2012-11-08 16:45:21 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so according to this break in the MCO lower, the bear is just getting started?
2012-11-08 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now have enough evidence to where a declining price structure can now begin in earnest
2012-11-08 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-11-08 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-08 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to understand
2012-11-08 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we can't really generalize bull or bear here
2012-11-08 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it fully depends on the time frame of what one may call bullish or bearish behavior
2012-11-08 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-08 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term is bearish
2012-11-08 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is the intermediate term
2012-11-08 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the longer term structure remains bullish
2012-11-08 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would take other breakdowns for this to change
2012-11-08 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so lets just say
2012-11-08 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we can now trend lower
2012-11-08 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might stop at 1350
2012-11-08 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 1300
2012-11-08 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even lower
2012-11-08 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we need to monitor things like this and allow the market give us prices to work with
2012-11-08 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you also bring up a good point about downside targets
2012-11-08 16:49:15 [Message] hkk -> Chat: if it stopped around 1350, it would be a bit late to be hopping on the bus, after a 90+ points decline from the top
2012-11-08 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our breaking below the MCO bottoms today on the NYSE
2012-11-08 16:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should produce new lower targets for the NYA
2012-11-08 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2012-11-08 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it would
2012-11-08 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-11-08 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at 1350
2012-11-08 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we have enough energy to go to 1000
2012-11-08 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're just getting on this same bus
2012-11-08 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-11-08 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2012-11-08 16:50:26 [Message] hkk -> Chat: but at this point, we don't have a price target?
2012-11-08 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have found that if I worry about how much I "could have" had
2012-11-08 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: takes away from my discipline
2012-11-08 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-11-08 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had bull divergence yesterday
2012-11-08 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had buy signals on the MID and SML
2012-11-08 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had sentiment at very negative levels
2012-11-08 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but right now
2012-11-08 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks as though
2012-11-08 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just by looking at the MCSUM's so far
2012-11-08 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that traders have "given up"
2012-11-08 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is NOT to technically happen here
2012-11-08 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is
2012-11-08 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it is
2012-11-08 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST respect it for what it may suggest
2012-11-08 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens
2012-11-08 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to targets...one sec
2012-11-08 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a break of the July 2012 lows in the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2012-11-08 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would then give us a downside target of around 7500
2012-11-08 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-08 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break to new lows tomorrow in the MCO below this level
2012-11-08 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 8000 should provide our initial bounce
2012-11-08 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that's done
2012-11-08 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look for the pattern to minimally move to this new target until canceled
2012-11-08 16:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to allow for the natural tendency for give and take here
2012-11-08 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this give and take is when we have a break of trend
2012-11-08 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a snapback
2012-11-08 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have a resumption
2012-11-08 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately for us
2012-11-08 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you say
2012-11-08 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we lost on 90 SPX points
2012-11-08 16:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't really lose out on the majority of the points
2012-11-08 16:55:54 [Message] hkk -> Chat: what if we don't make a lower low below the July low?
2012-11-08 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because 50 of it has happened in the last two days
2012-11-08 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the MCO? then we're likely to chop
2012-11-08 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note here
2012-11-08 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let me double check it before I share this
2012-11-08 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2012-11-08 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have had a 50% retracement so far on the SPX of the advance from the summer lows to the October highs
2012-11-08 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2012-11-08 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon yesterday
2012-11-08 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NASDAQ
2012-11-08 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check...one sec
2012-11-08 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break or the 2930 level would open up our target to 2893
2012-11-08 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much met that today (equality)
2012-11-08 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have also moved beyond our .618 retracement level on this as well
2012-11-08 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...
2012-11-08 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have broken our 200 day EMA's now
2012-11-08 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not something to turn a cheek on
2012-11-08 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do get our technical bounce near term
2012-11-08 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we find resistance at the 200 day
2012-11-08 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be a major problem
2012-11-08 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would then be considered a "bear market" as a chartist
2012-11-08 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2012-11-08 17:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's just get through the other charts first before we make any more forecasts here
2012-11-08 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might not be as bad as we believe it is
2012-11-08 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower low in the SPX breadth MCO
2012-11-08 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the SPX breadth MCSUM zero line did, in fact, provide enough resistance to where we now see an expansion gap to the downside
2012-11-08 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember how the OEX was showing a bit more weakness than the SPX over the last couple of days?
2012-11-08 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well now it's leading to the downside
2012-11-08 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we do have new downside price targets given
2012-11-08 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like 600
2012-11-08 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be more if we continue to dig lower here
2012-11-08 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we get to below -80
2012-11-08 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there would then be a very good chance that any challenge of the summer lows will not likely hold
2012-11-08 17:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I also don't like the shape of the rounding top on this OEX chart
2012-11-08 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at this strictly as a chartist
2012-11-08 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without any thing to measure momentum
2012-11-08 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the price pattern took over a week to hold prices in and around the August lows
2012-11-08 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once broken
2012-11-08 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have waterfall action
2012-11-08 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that this level of pricing was solid support for the uptrend
2012-11-08 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now there has been a change in the perception of value
2012-11-08 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market is now remarking prices to fit what will likely be the economic impact of this new valuation
2012-11-08 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess you can say
2012-11-08 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market was betting on a Romney/moderate victory
2012-11-08 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the disappointment has come that what was supposed to be close wasn't at all what it was perceived to be
2012-11-08 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so prices are being adjusted
2012-11-08 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately for us technicians though
2012-11-08 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing of this re-evaluation is not supportive of a continuation of further price mark up for the time being
2012-11-08 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably going to take several weeks now to find "parity"
2012-11-08 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also broke its rising trend line today
2012-11-08 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-11-08 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its blip support level
2012-11-08 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much destroys any hope of a bottom
2012-11-08 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a bright spot
2012-11-08 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO remains in constructive configuration
2012-11-08 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control the pattern
2012-11-08 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, by its being in this kind of configuration, tell us liquidity remains ample
2012-11-08 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further correction here will NOT be because of a lack of money
2012-11-08 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be that of being speculative (emotional) on what the future may hold
2012-11-08 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we saw in 2010
2012-11-08 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 2011
2012-11-08 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this past summer
2012-11-08 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when talk of earthquake's and tsunami's and economic collapses in Europe were the background noise of these same corrections
2012-11-08 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-08 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that liquidity remains more than ample
2012-11-08 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because our interest rate sensitive A/D lines remain in a rising trend configurations
2012-11-08 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so on this notion
2012-11-08 17:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't call this a bear market either
2012-11-08 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bear market can only occur if the amount of capital that is necessary to drive prices higher is absent
2012-11-08 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is not the case here
2012-11-08 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-08 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may allow prices to pullback a larger percentage than it would be comfortable to do so
2012-11-08 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we saw in 2008/2009
2012-11-08 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amplitude may not equal stimulus
2012-11-08 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it gives us something substantive to work with in our effort to forecast whether one should be ready to buy at the lows
2012-11-08 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to just stand aside and wait for even lower lows to appear
2012-11-08 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm getting way ahead of myself here
2012-11-08 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only had the technical breakdown just today
2012-11-08 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's a lot of things that would need to happen before any talk of a Elliott Wave size Super Cycle crash is likely to occur
2012-11-08 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't be responsible to even talk of such things at this time
2012-11-08 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-11-08 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now starting to get our first downside targets
2012-11-08 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one step at a time
2012-11-08 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2012-11-08 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also settled today on the MID breadth MCO right on its rising bottoms line
2012-11-08 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do see follow through tomorrow
2012-11-08 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the damage to prices will be quite terrific in its scope
2012-11-08 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a break of this rising line
2012-11-08 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would then allow the MID price pattern to break to new lows
2012-11-08 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the join the party
2012-11-08 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a violation of the rising bottoms line in the SML breadth MCO today
2012-11-08 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-11-08 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern broke down as well
2012-11-08 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: similar to what would happen to the MID if this occurred there too
2012-11-08 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always good to remember
2012-11-08 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that everything MUST work together for the market to meet a common goal
2012-11-08 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example here is the break of trend in the SML breadth MCO produced a break to lower prices on the price chart
2012-11-08 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news remains, however, that we continue to support bottoms above bottoms in this MCO as well
2012-11-08 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's break, minus any techncal snapback that we should see, would suggest that we're going to eventually have a reset here as well
2012-11-08 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reset, as you have seen many times in the past, it takes several weeks of back and forth before there's enough of a structure to counter the default of a bear market
2012-11-08 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break to new lows on the TM breadth MCO
2012-11-08 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-11-08 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2012-11-08 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bears have control overall
2012-11-08 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-11-08 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the work and effort that the bulls had tried to put together over the last 3 weeks has now been taken away
2012-11-08 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears finally look like they're going to make a real go of this now
2012-11-08 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-11-08 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see a bounce attempt on Friday
2012-11-08 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't
2012-11-08 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the weakness intensifies and spreads to the MID and SML
2012-11-08 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then have a technical snapback sometime early next week
2012-11-08 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our caveat here
2012-11-08 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that as the MCSUM moves from one side of power to the other
2012-11-08 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and traders recognize this
2012-11-08 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we sometimes have over crowding that can cause a "crash like" event
2012-11-08 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as in...
2012-11-08 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many people trying to get out a single revolving door
2012-11-08 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some get out
2012-11-08 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the majority tends to get crushed in the effort to do so
2012-11-08 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be on our toes for that
2012-11-08 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this window of "opportunity" though is short lived
2012-11-08 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should be past us by Wednesday of next week
2012-11-08 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be defensive here
2012-11-08 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't chase
2012-11-08 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leave the emotion at the door
2012-11-08 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be opportunities in the future
2012-11-08 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there always are
2012-11-08 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a peak at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-08 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...good
2012-11-08 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO remains divergent here
2012-11-08 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the selling, so far, hasn't been heavy
2012-11-08 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been damaging
2012-11-08 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not heavy
2012-11-08 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would fit into the idea of maybe, just maybe, much of the selling right now is more for tax purposes than anything else
2012-11-08 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2012-11-08 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you were a broker
2012-11-08 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know now that the capital gains taxes were going up at least 10% at year end
2012-11-08 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't you be calling your clients to lighten their portfolios?
2012-11-08 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know I would
2012-11-08 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have divergence holding on the composite NYSE volume MCO
2012-11-08 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2012-11-08 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's supporting a weaker number than the CO data
2012-11-08 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not a good thing
2012-11-08 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke the rising trend line on the NASDAQ volume MCO today
2012-11-08 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain divergent
2012-11-08 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO is right on its rising trend line now
2012-11-08 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like its breadth cousin
2012-11-08 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're still diverging on the NDX volume MCSUM
2012-11-08 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if that holds
2012-11-08 17:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that much of any selling that's likely to take place over the next couple of weeks will be more with issues that trade on the NYSE than that of the NASDAQ (generally speaking)
2012-11-08 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still diverging with the SPX, OEX and Dow volume MCO's
2012-11-08 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MID volume MCO took a whacking today
2012-11-08 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not a good omen for this index to hold its current lows
2012-11-08 17:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also
2012-11-08 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of being able to move much above the MID volume MCSUM zero line
2012-11-08 17:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this rolling over effect could be a whisper of a gap expansion to the downside coming as soon as Friday
2012-11-08 17:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the SML volume MCO
2012-11-08 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it perceptively broke below its rising bottoms line today
2012-11-08 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good enough for a bounce near term
2012-11-08 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we continue lower tomorrow
2012-11-08 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should take out any resemblance of a bullish pattern
2012-11-08 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is actually challenging its recent lows
2012-11-08 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with everything else still diverging here
2012-11-08 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also not a good omen for the broader marketplace
2012-11-08 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-08 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2012-11-08 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2012-11-08 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll have to see how things sort out when we get together again next Thursday
2012-11-08 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look
2012-11-08 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic
2012-11-08 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price bottom in the next two trading days
2012-11-08 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now minimally "oversold"
2012-11-08 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll now have to wait for the VTO's to move to "oversold" before we can look for a tradable low
2012-11-08 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note, however, that the Dow data is pretty much washed out now
2012-11-08 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that doesn't mean we can't go lower still before we have our reflex rally
2012-11-08 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.61
2012-11-08 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.18
2012-11-08 17:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.34
2012-11-08 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2012-11-08 17:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.51
2012-11-08 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12
2012-11-08 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-11-08 17:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2012-11-08 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see another bounce attempt as soon as tomorrow
2012-11-08 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's attempt was feeble at best
2012-11-08 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take a lot more than just dead cat bounce to stabilize things for a couple of days
2012-11-08 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-11-08 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this technical breakdown
2012-11-08 17:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a small window where a "crash like" event can take place
2012-11-08 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this window of opportunity should pass by Tuesday's close
2012-11-08 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that
2012-11-08 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not much more we can say until we get more information
2012-11-08 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-11-08 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any chance of a resumption of the advance from the summer lows is now behind us
2012-11-08 17:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're looking at the a possible challenge of these same summer lows
2012-11-08 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-08 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comments?
2012-11-08 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: insights?
2012-11-08 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2012-11-08 17:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the odds are...
2012-11-08 17:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Black Friday is not going to be a good day
2012-11-08 17:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business wise
2012-11-08 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have been speaking to many of my competitors/vendors/customers over the last couple of days
2012-11-08 17:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're all in agreement
2012-11-08 17:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business fell off a cliff about 3 weeks ago
2012-11-08 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for what that's worth
2012-11-08 17:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still very difficult out there
2012-11-08 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no one is hiring
2012-11-08 17:55:37 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Isn't the new qe money suppose to hit sometime next week?  maybe the support for a bounce?
2012-11-08 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually takes about 16-18 months for any monetary policy changes to hit equities
2012-11-08 17:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now at the tail end of QE2 now
2012-11-08 17:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it runs through, ideally, into the 1st quarter of next year
2012-11-08 17:56:48 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: gotcha
2012-11-08 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any QE 3 stimulus will hit the shores of equities in 2014
2012-11-08 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here's the problem
2012-11-08 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is not suggesting that any monetary stimulation is present
2012-11-08 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-08 17:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it maybe that the FED decided not to do anything until after the election
2012-11-08 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gold has been rising a bit over the last couple of days
2012-11-08 17:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since any excesses in liquidity first find their home in gold
2012-11-08 17:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we start seeing prices rise there
2012-11-08 17:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not much going to be left for stocks once it makes its way through commodities and the debt classes first
2012-11-08 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other school of thought here is that there is QE stimulus moving into the market
2012-11-08 17:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's being absorbed by debt problems
2012-11-08 17:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being absorbed at a faster rate than what's being manufactured
2012-11-08 18:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of people like to watch currencies like the dollar and euro to judge the effectiveness of these monetary policies
2012-11-08 18:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this shows up simply in the direction of gold itself
2012-11-08 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really the only thing you can watch and not have to deal with cross rates and other garbage
2012-11-08 18:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's rising
2012-11-08 18:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's excess liquidity in the system
2012-11-08 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it moves lower
2012-11-08 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is being drained
2012-11-08 18:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this liquidity factor
2012-11-08 18:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it directly effects stock prices
2012-11-08 18:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is seen in the A/D line
2012-11-08 18:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at a different rhythm
2012-11-08 18:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice, for example
2012-11-08 18:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that stocks and gold were pretty much linked together from the August lows to the October highs
2012-11-08 18:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now gold has been leading lower
2012-11-08 18:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "liquidation" spreads out to other asset classes as money is needed to cover positions
2012-11-08 18:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-08 18:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-11-08 18:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really need to see gold prices find support and at least stabilize at these levels
2012-11-08 18:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the forecast down the road for the other asset classes will not be very rosy
2012-11-08 18:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-08 18:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for the week coming up
2012-11-08 18:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain defensive
2012-11-08 18:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't expect any miracles now
2012-11-08 18:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have the upper hand
2012-11-08 18:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take the bulls some time to construct a new foundation from where a advancing price structure can have its start
2012-11-08 18:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be sure to check the BETS number this week
2012-11-08 18:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it may give us a clue as to how important today's technical breakdown will be
2012-11-08 18:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it remains neutral
2012-11-08 18:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely to be a short term event (a month)
2012-11-08 18:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it moves to hostile territory
2012-11-08 18:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be in for some rough waters for the rest of the year
2012-11-08 18:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it goes
2012-11-08 18:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-11-08 18:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-11-08 18:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great week
2012-11-08 18:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get back together a week from today
2012-11-08 18:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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