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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2013-11-07 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day
2013-11-07 15:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-11-07 16:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-11-07 16:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thx
2013-11-07 16:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch
2013-11-07 16:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just saw the close
2013-11-07 16:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4:1 negative breadth as well
2013-11-07 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good thing
2013-11-07 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get started since today is also a shortened session
2013-11-07 16:02:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Naz got touched up
2013-11-07 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after attempting to rally on the ECB news
2013-11-07 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market thought better of it
2013-11-07 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it might be we have some technical breakdowns now
2013-11-07 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look
2013-11-07 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly higher yesterday
2013-11-07 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2013-11-07 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and resting on its intermediate term rising bottoms line going back to the August period
2013-11-07 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been discussing for a week now
2013-11-07 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be highly important for the bulls to hold this line of support
2013-11-07 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we will start to get new downside price objectives generated
2013-11-07 16:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO components
2013-11-07 16:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend moved below zero today
2013-11-07 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend rests on its zero line
2013-11-07 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the technical expectation from here would be for a bounce off the zero line for the 5% while the 10% snaps back to the just violated demarcation point between buyers and sellers
2013-11-07 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-11-07 16:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved sharply lower today
2013-11-07 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor
2013-11-07 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke below the rising bottoms line just mentioned in the commons
2013-11-07 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that with this break of trendline support
2013-11-07 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it was enough for the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM to gap sharply lower today
2013-11-07 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled just below the important +500 level
2013-11-07 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action itself on the NYA
2013-11-07 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's sharply lower price bar has now provided a simple snapback to what were the previous highs in the 1 year pattern
2013-11-07 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls are going to make a stand, this would be time to do so
2013-11-07 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we can "allow" a bit more downside play in the MCO
2013-11-07 16:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we move below the early October lows
2013-11-07 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're going to be stuck in a larger consolidation pattern for the next couple of weeks
2013-11-07 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: likely into the beginning of December
2013-11-07 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2013-11-07 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough energy came in today to where prices could move to the 9750 level without too much of a problem
2013-11-07 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-11-07 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we settled right at the same rising bottoms line we were referring to in the NYSE data
2013-11-07 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling with a -47 reading
2013-11-07 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about before
2013-11-07 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of the recent lows in the NASDAQ now allows the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to challenge its zero line again
2013-11-07 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2013-11-07 16:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will include a break below mid October lows
2013-11-07 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we also touched upon earlier this week
2013-11-07 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with respect to the rising MCSUM structure of having a high above a high without an extension in the postings, doesn't always bode well for the market itself
2013-11-07 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today could had been that trigger where the market has again become vulnerable
2013-11-07 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth components
2013-11-07 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both are now below their zero line
2013-11-07 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have a confirmed sell signal on a short term trending basis here
2013-11-07 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM still above its zero line
2013-11-07 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not working with a change in trend at this time
2013-11-07 16:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could turn out to be one later on this month
2013-11-07 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2013-11-07 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that November OPEX is due a week from tomorrow
2013-11-07 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today might have something to do with that as well
2013-11-07 16:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't personally think so
2013-11-07 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll throw it out there for digestion
2013-11-07 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to finish up with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2013-11-07 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's downside thrust in the MCO did break the rising bottoms line early September lows
2013-11-07 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so with the usual excitement as far as prices are concerned
2013-11-07 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ Composite down nearly 2%
2013-11-07 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ohhh...those small point changes in the MCO
2013-11-07 16:20:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will the 250 breaking tomorrow be felt too?
2013-11-07 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can strategtize on the odds of which way we'll likely go
2013-11-07 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's one of those things that can go either way as tension on the tape is released
2013-11-07 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +250 level is not as "dynamic" as a trendline or horizontal break
2013-11-07 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as more and more sellers begin to off set the buyers
2013-11-07 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then be able to work with more than one or two down days in a row the closer we get to zero overall
2013-11-07 16:22:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thx
2013-11-07 16:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2013-11-07 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cut in interest rates overseas was not appreciated by the growth buyers
2013-11-07 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point
2013-11-07 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw the DAX was up over 100 points on the news
2013-11-07 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how it closed
2013-11-07 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 40
2013-11-07 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a key reversal there
2013-11-07 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might have one on the Dow
2013-11-07 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will need to check the open interest
2013-11-07 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day on the March futures
2013-11-07 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a key reversal today folks
2013-11-07 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very rare
2013-11-07 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment
2013-11-07 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open interest is stable
2013-11-07 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh so close
2013-11-07 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy
2013-11-07 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go on and review this idea next week
2013-11-07 16:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's sharp move lower in the NDX breadth MCO was able to break the rising bottoms line as well in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2013-11-07 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's reading of -66 is "oversold" enough to where we'll likely see a bounce near term
2013-11-07 16:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technical breakdown as well in the SPX breadth MCO
2013-11-07 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was evidently too much of a challenge to overcome on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-11-07 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it couldn't negotiate above the +750 level
2013-11-07 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the OEX data
2013-11-07 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in both cases
2013-11-07 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component Trend in both settled at their zero lines today
2013-11-07 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here is for a near term bounce
2013-11-07 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as soon as tomorrow
2013-11-07 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't hold here
2013-11-07 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can pretty much throw in the bullish towel for a month or two
2013-11-07 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what does the market want tomorrow?
2013-11-07 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more jobs created?
2013-11-07 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or less?
2013-11-07 16:32:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dunno
2013-11-07 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that since the market has transitioned to that of a earnings based marketplace
2013-11-07 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they would want to see economic expansion
2013-11-07 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2013-11-07 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did the 10 year do today?
2013-11-07 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2013-11-07 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: held up
2013-11-07 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settled at 2.61
2013-11-07 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...not a lot of panic buying by the bond pits today
2013-11-07 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting kind of tricky here
2013-11-07 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bearish daily price bar on gold though
2013-11-07 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2013-11-07 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a clean outside range day on the Dow
2013-11-07 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would indicate a down close on Friday
2013-11-07 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the Dow breadth MCO
2013-11-07 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains above its zero line
2013-11-07 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a take out of the 15,500 level would pretty much put a cap on the current price pattern sequence
2013-11-07 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would come, of course, of a break of the Dow breadth MCO zero line
2013-11-07 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also dumped lower today
2013-11-07 16:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the short term pattern of tops beneath tops continues to control the pattern
2013-11-07 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it looks line the 1250 level will be our first target there
2013-11-07 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MID breadth MCO breaking its rising bottoms line today
2013-11-07 16:39:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 750
2013-11-07 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may not see this area provide the stabilization that the bulls would be looking for
2013-11-07 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and the +750 level will probably be violated here given the downside momentum thrust we had today
2013-11-07 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO, however, did settle on its rising bottoms line
2013-11-07 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's thrust was able to push the SML breadth MCSUM below the +750 level
2013-11-07 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it settled right at the rising bottoms line there
2013-11-07 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have basically the same situation with the TM breadth MCO and MCSUM as both are now challenging their respected rising bottoms lines
2013-11-07 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-11-07 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bear ambush was a successful one
2013-11-07 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bulls need to really step up, here and now, or they'll likely be scurrying for cover
2013-11-07 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2013-11-07 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what the bulls were hoping wouldn't happen
2013-11-07 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was a break of the longer term horizontal range on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM took place today
2013-11-07 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and minus any obligatory snapbacks we might see over the next week or so
2013-11-07 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a bearish omen
2013-11-07 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if the bulls are going to sort this out they will need to do so not only quickly
2013-11-07 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with emphasis behind their conviction
2013-11-07 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2013-11-07 16:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the upside price target that was given over 6 months ago on the NASDAQ Composite of 4000 was missed by only 33 points on an intraday basis
2013-11-07 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is less than 1%
2013-11-07 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no other targets were ever given
2013-11-07 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be reasonable to think that with this target pretty much met we might need some time to digest the gains seen in this run up
2013-11-07 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just throwing it out there
2013-11-07 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see we got lower lows in the NDX volume MCO
2013-11-07 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're getting to the point where we've seen "oversold" bottoms in the past
2013-11-07 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see a fill of the price gap that was created last month near term
2013-11-07 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the volume MCSUM's in the SPX, OEX and MID in relation to their +500 level
2013-11-07 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it becomes clear on why this level was needed to be broken in order for prices to keep the current uptrend intact
2013-11-07 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now?
2013-11-07 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of that happening have diminished
2013-11-07 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-11-07 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although volume side of things remains constructive
2013-11-07 16:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall tone today between volume and breadth was decidedly negative
2013-11-07 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the bears have now "intercepted the ball" on a short term trending basis
2013-11-07 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some good news here for the buyers
2013-11-07 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are climactic on the CVI
2013-11-07 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price low in the next two trading sessions
2013-11-07 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside of that...not too many changes since Tuesday
2013-11-07 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that will change tomorrow
2013-11-07 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the STVO plays catch up to today's CVI
2013-11-07 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.69
2013-11-07 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .99
2013-11-07 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no longer neutral
2013-11-07 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.36
2013-11-07 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2013-11-07 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.49
2013-11-07 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2013-11-07 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is balanced here
2013-11-07 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and minimally "oversold"
2013-11-07 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean we won't have any follow through to today's shake out
2013-11-07 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it should keep things from falling apart near term
2013-11-07 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-11-07 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BETS is at +20 tonight
2013-11-07 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if it holds on Friday, would be a Cash signal
2013-11-07 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things sort out
2013-11-07 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-11-07 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's time again to be defensive
2013-11-07 16:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no new buying indicated until we see if there's anything left in the buyers court
2013-11-07 16:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2013-11-07 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to again cut our session short
2013-11-07 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we have 3 sessions again next week
2013-11-07 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they won't need to be truncated
2013-11-07 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until then
2013-11-07 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2013-11-07 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2013-11-07 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2013-11-07 17:00:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx

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