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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,458
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-11-06 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-11-06 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-11-06 16:01:24 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good...and you?
2014-11-06 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2014-11-06 16:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got whipsawed in my gold position today which I'm a bit miffed at...but it's part of the game
2014-11-06 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-11-06 16:04:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Speaking of GOLD is there a chart showing all the MCO Breadth?
2014-11-06 16:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Precious Metals stocks?
2014-11-06 16:04:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Gold only?
2014-11-06 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't generate one as it's a single commodity
2014-11-06 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-11-06 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you apply a 19 day and 39 day EMA to the daily gold price you will be able to know which side of the McClellan Summation Index zero line you're on
2014-11-06 16:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way to measure the strength or weakness of any commodity is to track the equity issues that are closest related to that commodity
2014-11-06 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for energy there's the XLE
2014-11-06 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the financials you have the XLF
2014-11-06 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for gold you have a gold index...XAU, HUI, GDX etc
2014-11-06 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from that you can apply a MCO
2014-11-06 16:07:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What about GLD
2014-11-06 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the MCO measures the advancing over the declining plurality of a group of issues
2014-11-06 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..you can do that with GLD as well
2014-11-06 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything that is a basket of issues
2014-11-06 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what you probably may want to know
2014-11-06 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using TW's basket of 56 precious metals stocks
2014-11-06 16:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM moved as low as -2000 in the last month
2014-11-06 16:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rebounded to around -1500 last week
2014-11-06 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then broke again to the downside after the FED announcement
2014-11-06 16:09:27 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Rite, if you go to etfinvestmentoutlook.com they have the mco and mcsum for GDX
2014-11-06 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the PM stocks are about as bearish as you can have them
2014-11-06 16:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, there too
2014-11-06 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ETF Investment Outlook has many sector MCO's and MCSUM"s to work from
2014-11-06 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's run by Arthur Hill
2014-11-06 16:10:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks Dave
2014-11-06 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-11-06 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get SC up and get started
2014-11-06 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing higher on Wednesday
2014-11-06 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly higher again today
2014-11-06 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-06 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had another small point change today on this MCO
2014-11-06 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have "tension on the tape" going into Friday's jobs numbers
2014-11-06 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-11-06 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it also continued to move up and through its zero line over the last two days
2014-11-06 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now stands with a reading of +121
2014-11-06 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2014-11-06 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's posting in the MCSUM has now cleared the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since the beginning of July
2014-11-06 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given this tidbit of information
2014-11-06 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO's are suggesting that any dramatic near term move out of this same compression area is likely to be to the upside
2014-11-06 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our being only 200 points from the high water mark in the NYA
2014-11-06 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also likely that we'll get pretty close to challenging this area as soon as Friday
2014-11-06 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-11-06 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also had a second consecutive day of a small point change
2014-11-06 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's continue to look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2014-11-06 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we noted on Tuesday
2014-11-06 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM continues to lead the CO MCSUM to the upside
2014-11-06 16:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it now stands a day away from moving up and through the +250 level
2014-11-06 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor again
2014-11-06 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have also broken above the declining tops line on this MCSUM as well
2014-11-06 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the path of least resistance has now turned to up and this should also help the NYA to reach its all time highs fairly quickly now
2014-11-06 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the mid October spike low in the MCO remains in force
2014-11-06 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains to the upside
2014-11-06 16:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-11-06 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ Composite price index supporting a classic high level consolidation pattern
2014-11-06 16:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should be ready to break out to the upside as soon as Friday
2014-11-06 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that this consolidation also permitted the price action to find foundational support at was the previous all time highs
2014-11-06 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would lend support to current bids on the floor of the exchange
2014-11-06 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NDX breadth MCO
2014-11-06 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same consolidation price pattern working here as well
2014-11-06 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM moving up and through the +750 level with little in the way of resistance
2014-11-06 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index remains the strongest of the bunch
2014-11-06 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no indication of a top at this time
2014-11-06 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO continued to bounce higher today
2014-11-06 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as prices have continued to make new all time high closes
2014-11-06 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the 2000 price level provided the expected psychological resistance point in the pattern of which we talked about in August
2014-11-06 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after we flushed the system of the weak hands
2014-11-06 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the Ebola scare to help promote this judgement that a top had been made
2014-11-06 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has now cut through this resistance area with a murmur of resistance
2014-11-06 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though on Tuesday
2014-11-06 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have an intraday test before moving to higher highs over the last 2 days
2014-11-06 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: classic bull market scenarios that are played out over again and again with a great deal of success
2014-11-06 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2014-11-06 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless there is a bearish surprise on Friday
2014-11-06 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it too will be challenging the +750 level as soon as tomorrow
2014-11-06 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be noted that this MCSUM also broke above its declining tops line on Wednesday
2014-11-06 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're in the clear here as well
2014-11-06 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very strong market
2014-11-06 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like it's only now about to turn on the boosters
2014-11-06 16:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at possible upside targets now in the SPX
2014-11-06 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimal target for this run is 2050
2014-11-06 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the breadth thrust we've had here
2014-11-06 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very likely that the next stopping point is our longer term target of 2250
2014-11-06 16:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the price chart now
2014-11-06 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks very much like if someone had jumped off a ledge and bounced off a trampoline and rocketed to a higher high
2014-11-06 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move of the last month has literally been that of "melt up" conditions
2014-11-06 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too often that this happens
2014-11-06 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can tell our grandchildren about it
2014-11-06 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-06 16:33:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: How do we get 2250 again?
2014-11-06 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "Oh...I remember back in...I think it was 14...and the Dow moved up 2000 points in less than a month...it was amazing!!"
2014-11-06 16:33:57 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-11-06 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2250 is a longer term MCSUM target given back in November of 2012
2014-11-06 16:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we launched this sucker
2014-11-06 16:34:41 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh yea!
2014-11-06 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current objective of 2050, as with all MCO/MCSUM target objectives, is taken by the breadth dynamic and applying this amount of thrust to the current price action
2014-11-06 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like if X=Y, then Y=Z
2014-11-06 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not so much in points but it is based more on percentages
2014-11-06 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the higher we go
2014-11-06 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more points that are covered to reach like percentages
2014-11-06 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-11-06 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 1% move at Dow 15000 is 150 points
2014-11-06 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at Dow 20000 it's 200 points
2014-11-06 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all relative to what we're working with at the time of the trigger
2014-11-06 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-11-06 16:37:25 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks again
2014-11-06 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are well in sync to the upside with the 500
2014-11-06 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this tells us that prices in the large caps are not being weighted by just the top 100
2014-11-06 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that ALL of the 500 are moving uniformly to the upside
2014-11-06 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we know that this is NOT a finishing move
2014-11-06 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a move that is robust and can carry further
2014-11-06 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the greater the participation, the greater the character of the trend (whether it be up or down)
2014-11-06 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow price chart
2014-11-06 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I can't think of any other pattern that would suggest an Elliott third wave in progress than this one
2014-11-06 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look how the price action is just on fire here
2014-11-06 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is exactly what we would see after an irregular flat
2014-11-06 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why such patterns take place in areas of accelerated strength
2014-11-06 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...there are going to be a lot of "examples" out of this
2014-11-06 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be noted
2014-11-06 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Dow breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching its shallow declining tops line
2014-11-06 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing, once again, that the total market is reaching these same resistance points at approximately the very same time
2014-11-06 16:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-11-06 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action will leave absolutely no doubt as to its future intentions
2014-11-06 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-11-06 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I checked the BETS earlier today
2014-11-06 16:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now at a -5
2014-11-06 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all that has to happen here is for some kind of stability in the oils and metals
2014-11-06 16:43:36 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yea!
2014-11-06 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll be back to an accumulation signal within a couple of weeks
2014-11-06 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from that though
2014-11-06 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the underlying action that we're seeing now is strong enough to where we can feel comfortable to continue to nibble at longs
2014-11-06 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by following the leading issues in leading sectors
2014-11-06 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will get to that in a bit
2014-11-06 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also moved a bit higher today
2014-11-06 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have discussed many times before
2014-11-06 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you see the MCO as high as it is right now
2014-11-06 16:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any day where we have a positive breadth plurality has the opportunity to move the price index to higher highs
2014-11-06 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the momentum of the move takes over
2014-11-06 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ruler to monitor here
2014-11-06 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we broke above the MID breadth MCSUM declining tops line today
2014-11-06 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so prices will now be able to not only move to test their all time highs
2014-11-06 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will be able to add to this gain and stay in this new high territory during this current sequence
2014-11-06 16:48:04 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: That's what I'm counting on
2014-11-06 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the SML breadth MCO tonight
2014-11-06 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the price pattern sequence is echoing that of the NASDAQ and NDX
2014-11-06 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of which suggests an upside breakout as soon as tomorrow
2014-11-06 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we connect the tops of March and July and extend this line out
2014-11-06 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the SML breadth MCSUM closed right on this line today
2014-11-06 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely to break above it tomorrow
2014-11-06 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2014-11-06 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM breadth MCSUM is now spending its second day back above its zero line
2014-11-06 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this zero line break
2014-11-06 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also simultaneously broken above the declining tops line on the MCSUM
2014-11-06 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-06 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the table is set
2014-11-06 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guests are nervous
2014-11-06 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something is about to give in a very big way
2014-11-06 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all indications are suggesting that any near term move in prices will be to the upside
2014-11-06 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing that the VTO's were close to being "overbought" on Tuesday
2014-11-06 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be the point in which a longer period of pause might take place as soon as next week
2014-11-06 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2014-11-06 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the action here has been quite aggressive
2014-11-06 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all those years in which the bulls have been saying to "watch out" with all the sideline money that still hasn't entered the market
2014-11-06 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be the time in which this same capital is going to be FORCED to be put to work
2014-11-06 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-06 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably what we're seeing right now
2014-11-06 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more fresh money that comes in here
2014-11-06 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher we're going to go
2014-11-06 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-11-06 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in case you're wondering
2014-11-06 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to move above the 2250 target for the SPX
2014-11-06 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do now is to see higher highs in breadth MCO's
2014-11-06 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens
2014-11-06 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe the next target is around 3000 on the SPX
2014-11-06 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2014-11-06 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have already have MCO confirmation that the NASDAQ and NDX are likely to see their all time price highs challenged on this run
2014-11-06 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may be in co-ordination with the SPX reaching the 2250 target
2014-11-06 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would give the market the excuse to fall back and regroup when both of these targets are met
2014-11-06 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another time
2014-11-06 16:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2014-11-06 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLY breadth MCO is working with a complex bullish sequence at this time
2014-11-06 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is enough energy, money, in this sector now to drive prices into new all time high territory
2014-11-06 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only a point away...so no biggy
2014-11-06 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM has also broke above its declining tops line
2014-11-06 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes good sense if you think about it
2014-11-06 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because with interest rates still scraping historic lows
2014-11-06 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the "tax" of higher fuel costs coming down over the last 2 months
2014-11-06 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will leave that much more money for consumers to go out and spend on cars, appliances, and anything else that would be deemed "discretionary"
2014-11-06 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Consumer Staples are flying
2014-11-06 17:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up some 10% in 2 weeks
2014-11-06 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the XLP breadth MCSUM!
2014-11-06 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind as you're looking at it
2014-11-06 17:00:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I have staples going down in price last week?
2014-11-06 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the distance between each individual posting shows you how fast (or slow) money is moving in this or that directions
2014-11-06 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you see the XLP chart?
2014-11-06 17:01:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-11-06 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it go down last week? [smile]
2014-11-06 17:02:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: down .75% today and no just this week
2014-11-06 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLP up .10 today?
2014-11-06 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at $47.57?
2014-11-06 17:03:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Then something's wrong with my chart
2014-11-06 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check the date settings
2014-11-06 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may be stuck at last week
2014-11-06 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "end date" should say (today)
2014-11-06 17:03:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You're right sorry and Never Mind
2014-11-06 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's OK
2014-11-06 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's happened to me in the past when I've update the cumulative or BPI charts at Stock Charts
2014-11-06 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up for 6 straight days now
2014-11-06 17:04:35 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK everything is fine now
2014-11-06 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes a difference, huh?
2014-11-06 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-06 17:05:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Red in the Face
2014-11-06 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now look at the MCSUM
2014-11-06 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's OK
2014-11-06 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no worries
2014-11-06 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes I'm off too
2014-11-06 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens
2014-11-06 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2014-11-06 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're starting to get enough information to where we seem to be bottoming at current levels
2014-11-06 17:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also that our downside targets that we discussed on September 11th was for both the XLE and WTIC to hit $80
2014-11-06 17:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both of these targets have been met
2014-11-06 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last week we had the beginnings of a complex bullish structure in the XLE breadth MCO
2014-11-06 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but our problem lied with the components being under their zero line
2014-11-06 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not any more
2014-11-06 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the 10% Index has finally broken above this line
2014-11-06 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're holding shorts here
2014-11-06 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's time to move on
2014-11-06 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with all the talk of late of $40 crude
2014-11-06 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my ears perked up yesterday morning when they were discussing this on CNBC
2014-11-06 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-11-06 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a final nail in the sentiment coffin today with the Saudi's announcing that they were allowing prices to "flow" free to the downside
2014-11-06 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time to move on
2014-11-06 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good run
2014-11-06 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're thinking long
2014-11-06 17:09:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-11-06 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, just think how high the Dow and OEX would be if the energy stocks weren't getting clobbered over the last week
2014-11-06 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that stops...well...
2014-11-06 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break above the $87.50 level in the XLE would trigger a buy
2014-11-06 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a target of around...oh...let's say $94
2014-11-06 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also be within the small Elliott second wave of one lesser degree area
2014-11-06 17:11:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What do you trade for XLE in a ETF?
2014-11-06 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't understand
2014-11-06 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can trade the XLE
2014-11-06 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which component do I trade?
2014-11-06 17:13:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Which would you suggest? Never invested here
2014-11-06 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2014-11-06 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an 8 point move in the XLE would be about a 6% move
2014-11-06 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's worth it to trade the basket
2014-11-06 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could do due diligence and look at the components and see which one is leading
2014-11-06 17:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to start that is going to your search bar and putting in XLE...hit the link for the Yahoo and they will list the components, and their weighting, for you
2014-11-06 17:14:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK will do
2014-11-06 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can then look up the charts
2014-11-06 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see how their pattern structures are
2014-11-06 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but be advised
2014-11-06 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM as low as it is
2014-11-06 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely NONE of the components are going to look attractive
2014-11-06 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so better to play the basket
2014-11-06 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2014-11-06 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this sector remains the weakest
2014-11-06 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has that much more to do, in construction, to even match something like the XLK in its current strength
2014-11-06 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you might have to wait a bit longer to be satisfied with the trade
2014-11-06 17:17:03 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: good advice
2014-11-06 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the yield on the XLE is 2.03%
2014-11-06 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PE is 15
2014-11-06 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a conservative play
2014-11-06 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is fine and dandy because you're a conservative kind of guy [wink]
2014-11-06 17:18:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: That right [smile]
2014-11-06 17:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow and sure wins the race
2014-11-06 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hardest thing to do here for all of us is...
2014-11-06 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying not to get too emotional and looking to play EVERYTHING
2014-11-06 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is an exciting time
2014-11-06 17:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must also have a plan
2014-11-06 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to remain disciplined
2014-11-06 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...in the end...all of this is a gamble
2014-11-06 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also a business
2014-11-06 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: work hard...and you'll succeed
2014-11-06 17:20:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: The key is consistency comes to mind
2014-11-06 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but having too many fingers in too many pies is liable to keep you from noticing other opportunities
2014-11-06 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-11-06 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep you advised of areas that are not following your blueprint
2014-11-06 17:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF price action is also flying high
2014-11-06 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are close now to our first target of $25
2014-11-06 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the velocity of money moving into this ETF by way of the MCSUM!
2014-11-06 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no doubt at all that money is supporting current prices and believing that prices are still undervalued
2014-11-06 17:22:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: day after day
2014-11-06 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV chart action also continues to show an accelerated phase to the upside
2014-11-06 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the current digestion is so strong that we have traced out an leading diagonal formation
2014-11-06 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will lead to another accelerated price phase
2014-11-06 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that this likely break to the upside will take place concurrently with the XLV breadth MCSUM moving above its declining tops line
2014-11-06 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you see this kind of action
2014-11-06 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really does give you the confidence to join the party
2014-11-06 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and do so at points in the pattern to where you have high confidence that you're not too late to participate
2014-11-06 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the problems of trading is that
2014-11-06 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all try to enter the market when the initial breakout occurs
2014-11-06 17:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but many times we don't have the backing of the internals to do so
2014-11-06 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if they continue to strengthen
2014-11-06 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this helps in letting us know that there is still good value - in this case - the XLV at $67.70 a share than it was at $65.00
2014-11-06 17:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you don't have to wait for a pullback
2014-11-06 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, most times anyway, we shy away from because the environment around us is telling us to wait
2014-11-06 17:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you wait...and lose the pullback point in which you've been looking for all along
2014-11-06 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotions are the killer in making consistent profits
2014-11-06 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to be like a robot...no emotion
2014-11-06 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a plan
2014-11-06 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and execute the plan when the trigger is given
2014-11-06 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a baseball batter at the plate
2014-11-06 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you keep thinking what the pitcher is going to throw
2014-11-06 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not likely to find agreement and tend to miss hitting it
2014-11-06 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you wait for your "count" to develop
2014-11-06 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and know the character of what the pitcher is likely to throw based on this
2014-11-06 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're then ready to pull the trigger
2014-11-06 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "fastball...inside"
2014-11-06 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a batter you have to do this because...
2014-11-06 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the time the ball leaves the pitcher's hand to it reaching the plate is less than ONE second
2014-11-06 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another chat room [smile]
2014-11-06 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2014-11-06 17:30:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I'd like to say these daily chats have prepared me more than any other thing I've tried
2014-11-06 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're welcome
2014-11-06 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-06 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLI
2014-11-06 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way this price pattern is also streaking to the upside
2014-11-06 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing, of course, that the components that the make up the XLI encompasses both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
2014-11-06 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where are both of these indices right now?
2014-11-06 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...at all time highs
2014-11-06 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't worry...the market doesn't know what it's doing...this has got to be the top
2014-11-06 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?
2014-11-06 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-06 17:32:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right
2014-11-06 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLB breadth MCO
2014-11-06 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now beginning to show some structural character here
2014-11-06 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding support at above its zero line
2014-11-06 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now put the XLB breadth MCSUM in a position to move above its zero line as soon as Friday
2014-11-06 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the XLE
2014-11-06 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern continues to look corrective
2014-11-06 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the current internal configurations
2014-11-06 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the components remaining above their zero lines
2014-11-06 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be we just finished a small 1-2 Elliott structure
2014-11-06 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2014-11-06 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a test of the all time price highs as soon as next week
2014-11-06 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe more if the XLB breadth MCO is able to move to new reaction highs by Monday
2014-11-06 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be a far better play than the XLE
2014-11-06 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK remains strong
2014-11-06 17:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the breakaway gap above the old highs of this year remains open
2014-11-06 17:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would indicate that "something different" is going on now
2014-11-06 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the price action continues to indicate higher highs yet to come
2014-11-06 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next level of resistance is at...
2014-11-06 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like $49
2014-11-06 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the all time highs here are around $57
2014-11-06 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be fairly certain that this ETF is going to echo the NASDAQ and/or NDX from this point forward
2014-11-06 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO finally snapped back to its zero line today
2014-11-06 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a bounce off this line as soon as Friday
2014-11-06 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price action continuing to see higher and higher closes for the next couple of weeks
2014-11-06 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-06 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that everyone is about to get into the act
2014-11-06 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we are at a point in which we're seeing significant pattern breakouts to the upside
2014-11-06 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that are being supported by the sectors in which we cover here
2014-11-06 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this suggests that we're in the middle of a very strong advancing price sequence
2014-11-06 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the trend is up until proven otherwise
2014-11-06 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are showing a constant flow of new capital moving into the market
2014-11-06 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the STVO remains "overbought"
2014-11-06 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO has now joined in at these extreme levels
2014-11-06 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we mentioned earlier
2014-11-06 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may mean that we may "blow off" near term
2014-11-06 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could mean that this thing is out of control
2014-11-06 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as waves upon waves of capital move into equities
2014-11-06 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2014-11-06 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .91
2014-11-06 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2014-11-06 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just under being minimally "oversold"
2014-11-06 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that we don't "need" to see a price top at this juncture
2014-11-06 17:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .95
2014-11-06 17:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 getting more neutral at .87
2014-11-06 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very healthy
2014-11-06 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .91
2014-11-06 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89, neutral
2014-11-06 17:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-06 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain long and strong for now
2014-11-06 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while continuing to look for cracks in the armor that would indicate that the trend is showing signs of tiring
2014-11-06 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't see this as yet
2014-11-06 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be nice if we had a couple of days of rest just to catch our collective breath
2014-11-06 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2014-11-06 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we haven't seen this over the last two weeks either
2014-11-06 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll take what the market gives us to work with
2014-11-06 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-11-06 17:48:17 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not here have a good night
2014-11-06 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2014-11-06 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how quiet message boards are getting
2014-11-06 17:48:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes I have
2014-11-06 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is because
2014-11-06 17:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's far easier to talk about what we can't control than it is to try to learn from our mistakes
2014-11-06 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: panic is exciting...panic sells
2014-11-06 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are slow to embrace success
2014-11-06 17:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure
2014-11-06 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're seeing here is remarkable
2014-11-06 17:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should continue to embrace this as long as it wants to continue
2014-11-06 17:51:55 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: your Super Secret weapon though a 5 min chart has called this whole move up - remarkable
2014-11-06 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is remarkable
2014-11-06 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2014-11-06 17:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple
2014-11-06 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm glad to hear that you're getting the most out of it
2014-11-06 17:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-11-06 17:53:20 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: yep
2014-11-06 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-11-06 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super duper weekend with your friends and families
2014-11-06 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll be back to work next Tuesday
2014-11-06 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-11-06 17:54:08 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You to..  Good night all

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