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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-06 16:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-06 16:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-06 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to hear!
2012-11-06 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-06 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing on your minds...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-11-06 16:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finding support with Friday's lows
2012-11-06 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued higher today
2012-11-06 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have a nice looking pattern of bottoms above bottoms within this current MCO structure
2012-11-06 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such a structure would lend itself to a probable breakout above the recent MCO highs near term
2012-11-06 16:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA also closed at its highest level in about 2 weeks as well today
2012-11-06 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2012-11-06 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation from last Thursday that a price bottom, within a trading range, is more than likely the situation right now
2012-11-06 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break above the mid October...GEEZ
2012-11-06 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the polls JUST closed
2012-11-06 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they already have projections!
2012-11-06 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the press is once again going to fall allover themselves on this...to be the first to call a race
2012-11-06 16:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...sorry...it's just annoying
2012-11-06 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break above the mid October highs being a pivotal juncture for the bulls to build on
2012-11-06 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that we are also back on a crossover component buy signal again
2012-11-06 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the composite NYSE breadth MCO is leading this time around
2012-11-06 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would provide better sync for the bulls
2012-11-06 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continues to battle with holding the zero line here
2012-11-06 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we have already seen a ledge and then a fishhook in this structure
2012-11-06 16:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are then more than 50% now that a bottom is now being created
2012-11-06 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite is doing
2012-11-06 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well the good news is that the composite NYSE breadth MCO is also back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND it's above the most recent highs of last week
2012-11-06 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is still trailing the strength in the CO NYSE breadth MCO which makes it vulnerable near term
2012-11-06 16:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we continue to have constructive behavior here
2012-11-06 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not one where one can call a change in direction
2012-11-06 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do continue to see, however, a real lack of conviction by the bears as shown by the congested postings of the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-11-06 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NYSE composite components finding support at their zero line on Friday
2012-11-06 16:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the bulls are trying their best to wrestle control away from the sellers
2012-11-06 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bears are holding on by the tips of their nails
2012-11-06 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2012-11-06 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we have something going with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-11-06 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it not only took out its most recent highs today
2012-11-06 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not only moved back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out the mid October highs today
2012-11-06 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have constructive evidence that a turn, of some degree, is getting under way
2012-11-06 16:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ components still under water though
2012-11-06 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can only hope for a rally up to the daily price patterns declining tops line at this point
2012-11-06 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are right up against that line now
2012-11-06 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to break above it then
2012-11-06 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will have to be convincing enough to push the 10% Trend (at the very least) back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for it to stay there and above this same line of negative influence
2012-11-06 16:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% must also move back above the zero line as well
2012-11-06 16:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note how the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now holding the -250 level quite well here
2012-11-06 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's "up" reading of -233
2012-11-06 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any decent follow through tomorrow would give us a "run to cover" signal
2012-11-06 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (not walk)
2012-11-06 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (run)
2012-11-06 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is showing more strength now compared to the NASDAQ composite
2012-11-06 16:22:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: -233?
2012-11-06 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now taken out...yes on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-11-06 16:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken out all resistance now
2012-11-06 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for the key MCO spike we see in the middle of September
2012-11-06 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only can we break above the declining tops line on the price chart
2012-11-06 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we can get the 5% above zero
2012-11-06 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can look for a nice rally here
2012-11-06 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the near term expectation of 2775
2012-11-06 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can break above the mid September MCO highs
2012-11-06 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only are we likely to challenge the September price highs
2012-11-06 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can also exceed them
2012-11-06 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's were suggesting a rally today
2012-11-06 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do see any follow through today with this recent strength
2012-11-06 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then these indices are likely to show a nice week or so of rally
2012-11-06 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2012-11-06 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're back to a crossover buy signal there too
2012-11-06 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that we have, once again, turned the corner to the upside on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2012-11-06 16:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being within range of the zero line
2012-11-06 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is market balance between buyers and sellers
2012-11-06 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any robust move near term could allow higher highs in the SPX MCO
2012-11-06 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thereby would push the SPX breadth MCSUM back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could lead to a one or two day "relief rally"
2012-11-06 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of...well, I guess the election results
2012-11-06 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the worse thing that can happen here for the markets is that no one is declared the winner tonight
2012-11-06 16:29:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: BET
2012-11-06 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the second worse thing that could happen is that the vote is so close that a recount or the courts would have to get involved again
2012-11-06 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF we can sidestep one or both
2012-11-06 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are suggesting that the odds are tilted toward a continuation of today's advance
2012-11-06 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in essence, the players have made their bet
2012-11-06 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and short term the buyers are trying to take control
2012-11-06 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the sellers are all but out of the picture on an intermediate term basis
2012-11-06 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX
2012-11-06 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow through rally would probably find an exhaustion point around the 1450 cash level
2012-11-06 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the top of our trading range
2012-11-06 16:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the OEX ...the 670 level should provide this same resistance
2012-11-06 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the internals there pretty much in lock step with the SPX
2012-11-06 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Dow
2012-11-06 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 13,500 looks to be a good target
2012-11-06 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have the Dow breadth MCO back above its zero line
2012-11-06 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components giving a crossover buy which was missing from last Thursday's advance
2012-11-06 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would you look at that!
2012-11-06 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO moved above its mid October highs today
2012-11-06 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has the 10% component
2012-11-06 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a buy signal there
2012-11-06 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first near term resistance will be around the MID breadth MCSUM zero line
2012-11-06 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have the small ledge pattern to overcome before we can be called "in the clear"
2012-11-06 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a move back to the top of the range, 1025, looks like a conservative target for now
2012-11-06 16:36:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, that's one odd price pattern there-has me stumped
2012-11-06 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...the MID?
2012-11-06 16:36:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-11-06 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a ruler handy?
2012-11-06 16:36:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-11-06 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take it put it on the price chart connecting the March and April highs..
2012-11-06 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and extend it out...and you get?
2012-11-06 16:37:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ascending triangle?
2012-11-06 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback
2012-11-06 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: single trendline
2012-11-06 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: connect the two tops and extend it out
2012-11-06 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see the price pattern hugging that line during this correction
2012-11-06 16:38:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah..
2012-11-06 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the internals are suggesting a successful test
2012-11-06 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should, in theory, go to new highs
2012-11-06 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a weekly basis though
2012-11-06 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in a trading range
2012-11-06 16:39:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thats what I keep thinking-new highs, and was a bit confused
2012-11-06 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the September highs
2012-11-06 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finding support at the late August lows
2012-11-06 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also.....
2012-11-06 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 4 of one lesser degree
2012-11-06 16:40:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: jeez
2012-11-06 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that the MCSUM has fulfilled its downside structure
2012-11-06 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO has broken to new highs
2012-11-06 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a buy signal
2012-11-06 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know why it's probably a solid signal?
2012-11-06 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because no one is expecting it
2012-11-06 16:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the Election today
2012-11-06 16:41:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, agreed
2012-11-06 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have Greece voting on extensions to their woes tomorrow
2012-11-06 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then something else on Thursday..EU stuff?
2012-11-06 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2012-11-06 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but have you noticed all the calls of bear market in the last 3 days?
2012-11-06 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sentiment is ripe now for a rally
2012-11-06 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only "technical problem" we have here
2012-11-06 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the lack of divergence in the recent MCO lows on some of the indices
2012-11-06 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-11-06 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID can lead the market
2012-11-06 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2012-11-06 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps and back and fill
2012-11-06 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maintain their bullish texture
2012-11-06 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and provide some divergence
2012-11-06 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go
2012-11-06 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only real problem currently
2012-11-06 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is what's going to happen with capital gains
2012-11-06 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it go up less than 5% with Romney
2012-11-06 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or up 10% plus with Obama?
2012-11-06 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you're dealing with millions of dollars
2012-11-06 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5% is a lot of moola
2012-11-06 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side though
2012-11-06 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where else is money going to get the kind of returns that it's getting right now with equities?
2012-11-06 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we'll see some tax selling in December
2012-11-06 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might go directly back in to other areas
2012-11-06 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the key to whether or not we do test the all time highs in the Dow and SPX by the spring of next year or not
2012-11-06 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-11-06 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a MID buy signal
2012-11-06 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ummm...
2012-11-06 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess what?
2012-11-06 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a SML buy signal as well!
2012-11-06 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least back to the top of the range at 480
2012-11-06 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also have quite a bit of punch if the volume data is confirming...so we'll get to that in moment
2012-11-06 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a higher high, and back above the zero line as well, with the TM breadth MCO
2012-11-06 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any move above the mid October MCO highs
2012-11-06 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: triggering a bull divergent low
2012-11-06 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being above the zero line on the TM breadth MCSUM
2012-11-06 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls can take control of the action with only with a small amount of effort
2012-11-06 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-11-06 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice day for the buyers
2012-11-06 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who seemed to step up, all of a sudden, at 11:30 today
2012-11-06 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first it was the major indices
2012-11-06 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the PM stocks followed that lead higher
2012-11-06 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if the market got wind of some exit poll or something
2012-11-06 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever it was
2012-11-06 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be it a large buy program being accentuated with a lack of sellers
2012-11-06 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market took a bit of pressure off the tape with today's advance
2012-11-06 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume side looks
2012-11-06 16:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO continues to lag behind its breadth cousin currently
2012-11-06 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also have the components still having problems moving above their zero line
2012-11-06 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the breadth of money is expanding
2012-11-06 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the degree in which it's going to work is still on the low side
2012-11-06 16:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-06 16:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of taking 10 million dollars and putting into work
2012-11-06 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only 5 million is out there pushing things forward
2012-11-06 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you're not able to buy a more broader scope of products
2012-11-06 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's moving in
2012-11-06 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe more like sticking a toe in before the whole body commits
2012-11-06 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bulls favor
2012-11-06 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is with the breadth side
2012-11-06 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCSUM has also minimally completed its downside sequence
2012-11-06 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where some sort of counter move is indicated
2012-11-06 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2012-11-06 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are within the range of some pretty important pattern support
2012-11-06 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being the July lows seen on the chart
2012-11-06 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking about the same with the composite NYSE volume MCO
2012-11-06 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in need of a little more conviction by traders
2012-11-06 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news here
2012-11-06 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that both the CO and the composite in moving in sync with each other right now
2012-11-06 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as are their breadth counterparts
2012-11-06 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's unlikely that the sellers will be able to apply much in the way of control in their favor at the present time
2012-11-06 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE volume MCO components
2012-11-06 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that they produced a crossover buy signal today
2012-11-06 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are showing more strength than the CO MCO
2012-11-06 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of particular note
2012-11-06 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the NYSE volume MCSUM is not only holding in and around its zero line
2012-11-06 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's also within the range of the aforementioned July lows
2012-11-06 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here again
2012-11-06 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see both the ledge and the fishhook structures already in place in the MCSUM
2012-11-06 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggest that the next turn higher that we see should be a change in this money flow trend
2012-11-06 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we get our post expansion
2012-11-06 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the feel I'm getting here is that unless something gets messy tonight
2012-11-06 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see good follow through to the upside on Wednesday regardless of the winner, though the amplitude of relief will be questionable
2012-11-06 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to move higher
2012-11-06 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll note that it broke above its zero line and pattern resistance levels on Monday
2012-11-06 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested that there was enough energy coming in that today was likely to be a follow through day in this direction
2012-11-06 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...we have both of the components under their zero line
2012-11-06 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although constructive longer term
2012-11-06 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-11-06 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're only correcting
2012-11-06 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will continue to do so until we get both the MCO and its components in agreement
2012-11-06 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in direction AND amplitude
2012-11-06 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is trying its best to hold the -500 level
2012-11-06 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're minimally "oversold" there
2012-11-06 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2012-11-06 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that we broke above the zero line and pattern resistance on Monday
2012-11-06 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although the components are not really in sync here
2012-11-06 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend is back above its zero line
2012-11-06 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we can say is that any money that is coming into the NASDAQ market right now is focusing on the cream stocks
2012-11-06 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these cream stocks are, by and large, part of other major indices...like the SPX, MID and SML
2012-11-06 17:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note here again
2012-11-06 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are turning up from the -750 level
2012-11-06 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be deemed highly "oversold"
2012-11-06 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in other words
2012-11-06 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those that have wanted to sell...have
2012-11-06 17:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it will continue to be difficult for those who still believe that there will be lower prices from here to keep that large beach ball below the surface of the deep end of the swimming pool
2012-11-06 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that NDX volume MCSUM looks like it's done
2012-11-06 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: declining for almost 10 weeks now
2012-11-06 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's overdone
2012-11-06 17:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the last couple of posts in the MCSUM are now expanding higher
2012-11-06 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs in the SPX volume MCO
2012-11-06 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components here are lagging as well
2012-11-06 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too much texture as well with this MCO
2012-11-06 17:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be primed for a near term ambush of sorts
2012-11-06 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall
2012-11-06 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see good construction
2012-11-06 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCO is also above its October highs now
2012-11-06 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still under their zero line
2012-11-06 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need better volume there
2012-11-06 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same story with the Dow
2012-11-06 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO moved to new highs today
2012-11-06 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the buy signal on the breadth side
2012-11-06 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO structure has a great look to it - texturally speaking
2012-11-06 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the kind of structure you like to see for trend development
2012-11-06 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it be higher or lower
2012-11-06 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more back and forth you have
2012-11-06 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better and more cohesive the trend
2012-11-06 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's higher highs
2012-11-06 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bull divergence has been triggered with the MID volume MCO as well
2012-11-06 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the MID breadth MCSUM moves above the the mid October dome
2012-11-06 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then be in the clear
2012-11-06 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the short term trend has now turned higher
2012-11-06 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO also moved to higher highs today
2012-11-06 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that confirms the breadth buy signal there
2012-11-06 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the smallest of caveats
2012-11-06 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming with the components
2012-11-06 17:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which need just a little more of a push to move things forward
2012-11-06 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO also moved back above its zero line and pattern resistance today
2012-11-06 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know when that happened...right?
2012-11-06 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right after 11:30 today
2012-11-06 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo...
2012-11-06 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good day for the bulls
2012-11-06 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a great one
2012-11-06 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a little more follow through
2012-11-06 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be able to put the last 2 weeks of choppiness behind us for a bit
2012-11-06 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can work with the top of the price range
2012-11-06 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also the September/October highs
2012-11-06 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions or comments??
2012-11-06 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK, then let's move back to the sector breadth McClellan's then and see who's leading
2012-11-06 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO remains under pattern resistance
2012-11-06 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see that the XLY breadth MCSUM has not only turned up today
2012-11-06 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it took out last Thursday's highs as well
2012-11-06 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the buyers are building strength near term
2012-11-06 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're likely to see a move above the triple tops we see on the MCO chart
2012-11-06 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP data remains quite buoyant here
2012-11-06 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLP breadth MCSUM continuing to remain above its zero line
2012-11-06 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is lending price pattern support at the 35 level
2012-11-06 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO also generated a buy signal today
2012-11-06 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch this one as to whether people are OK with the market, but maybe remain a bit defensive in their trades
2012-11-06 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE
2012-11-06 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might had a break-away gap to the upside today
2012-11-06 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have divergence in place
2012-11-06 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a XLE breadth MCO and component buy signal
2012-11-06 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noting, of course, that this is taking place as the XLE breadth MCSUM found near term support at the -250 level
2012-11-06 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in rising trend, one would find ultimate support after the MCSUM peaks out
2012-11-06 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF continues to support a bullish price structure
2012-11-06 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with multiple bottoms above bottoms controlling the pattern
2012-11-06 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have bottoms above bottoms in the XLF breadth MCO and its components as well
2012-11-06 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no change there on the buy signal we had several weeks ago
2012-11-06 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-06 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break above the October MCO highs, and the recent price highs themselves, would give a re-initiation signal to go in and buy again
2012-11-06 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLF breadth MCSUM continues to hold that +250 level like its life depended on it
2012-11-06 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO also moved sharply higher today
2012-11-06 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLV breadth MCSUM at the +500 level
2012-11-06 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a great starting point for the price pattern to being its momentum rally
2012-11-06 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern
2012-11-06 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the head and shoulders idea from last week is becoming a lower probability
2012-11-06 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the lack of symmetry since we see with the left shoulder
2012-11-06 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for whatever the reason
2012-11-06 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV should be rallying here at any time
2012-11-06 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakout to the upside on the XLI breadth MCSUM!
2012-11-06 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're likely to move to the +500 level
2012-11-06 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the this sectors close arrangement to the Dow Industrials and Transports
2012-11-06 17:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would further support our expectation of a maybe a weeks worth of advance in front of us (minus any near term stumble)
2012-11-06 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that we have slightly better texture with this recent run up in the XLI breadth MCO
2012-11-06 17:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers have some control here to play with
2012-11-06 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO and its components moved to buy signals today
2012-11-06 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2012-11-06 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: took out their blip resistance levels as well
2012-11-06 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-11-06 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM remains below its zero line
2012-11-06 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector is to be watched as there are other areas taking the lead here
2012-11-06 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also continue to see constructive behavior with the XLK breadth MCO
2012-11-06 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those darn components are still lagging at this juncture
2012-11-06 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are in need of some love
2012-11-06 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we do see some love here
2012-11-06 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at a fishhook on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2012-11-06 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not so much of a hurry here to move long here...at least for now
2012-11-06 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after the XLU breadth MCO moved to deeply "oversold" levels yesterday
2012-11-06 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had a nice bounce today
2012-11-06 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-11-06 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this pullback in money took place in and around where we kind of expected a pause...at the XLU breadth MCSUM zero line
2012-11-06 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now
2012-11-06 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're supporting bull divergence on the XLU breadth MCSUM and price
2012-11-06 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this may be our capitulation point
2012-11-06 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the negative side though
2012-11-06 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did break below what was some pretty solid price support at the 36 level
2012-11-06 17:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to put the bull's mind at ease
2012-11-06 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move back above this level in the next couple of days could reaffirm the idea of a very important low in this sector
2012-11-06 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.....
2012-11-06 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some good points
2012-11-06 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some so so points
2012-11-06 17:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall
2012-11-06 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is more buoyancy with the long side than the short side right now
2012-11-06 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2012-11-06 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is a problem with the election
2012-11-06 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could turn into quite a negative day on Wednesday as these same traders withdrawal their support
2012-11-06 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though
2012-11-06 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any disappointment that we might see should be easily absorbed...and quickly so
2012-11-06 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see
2012-11-06 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators
2012-11-06 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are high, but not climactic
2012-11-06 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are on the bullish side of neutral
2012-11-06 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are treading water here
2012-11-06 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we did get our "better than the others" pop in the Dow today with it being "oversold" in the VTO on Friday
2012-11-06 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .55
2012-11-06 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12
2012-11-06 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold"
2012-11-06 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will make it difficult for the sellers to mount up any kind of sell off
2012-11-06 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.13
2012-11-06 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2012-11-06 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2012-11-06 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.01
2012-11-06 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2012-11-06 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo...
2012-11-06 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the construction continues
2012-11-06 17:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID is by far the leader to the upside now
2012-11-06 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML close behind
2012-11-06 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the secondaries beginning to see some conviction of its own
2012-11-06 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the market is pretty much in a position now to rally
2012-11-06 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we shouldn't see much more than the price highs in mid October
2012-11-06 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the longs...remain on a hold for now
2012-11-06 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for more information
2012-11-06 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the shorts...tight stops are now needed if you're not already out
2012-11-06 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bottom line being
2012-11-06 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still in an indecision pattern
2012-11-06 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking for a better platform to rally
2012-11-06 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-06 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures down sharply
2012-11-06 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess Obama is winning
2012-11-06 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be a long night
2012-11-06 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Senate being the key
2012-11-06 17:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-11-06 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take my leave
2012-11-06 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great night
2012-11-06 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get together again tomorrow...same time, same station
2012-11-06 17:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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