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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-06 19:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-06 19:00:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-11-06 19:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-06 19:00:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: great
2008-11-06 19:00:29 [Message] lew -> Main Room: GREAT, thx.
2008-11-06 19:00:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you?
2008-11-06 19:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: two greats!...anyone else?
2008-11-06 19:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me? pensive
2008-11-06 19:01:46 [Message] lew -> Main Room: why?
2008-11-06 19:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shouldn't I be?
2008-11-06 19:01:59 [Message] lew -> Main Room: nope
2008-11-06 19:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...GREAT!
2008-11-06 19:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-06 19:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and Dave....
2008-11-06 19:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answer to your question from Tuesday on how long does it take to get the MCO back to the zero line?
2008-11-06 19:02:36 [Message] lew -> Main Room: you are doing SUPER work, Fib
2008-11-06 19:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answer is two
2008-11-06 19:02:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: LOL
2008-11-06 19:02:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you beat me to it
2008-11-06 19:03:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you want option 1 or option 2
2008-11-06 19:03:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ill tell you both, but which one first
2008-11-06 19:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what? there's not a third option?
2008-11-06 19:03:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: nope
2008-11-06 19:03:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well yep
2008-11-06 19:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by your pleasure...
2008-11-06 19:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw...the last two consecutive days of decline are the worst since 1987 - 10%
2008-11-06 19:04:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we finished wave 1 down of minute 5, going up to make wave 2 of minute 5 starting tomorrow minute 4 finished an ending diagonal as lew had suggested
2008-11-06 19:04:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: option 2 - we finished the 1234 of C and now going into an ending diagonal with objective of 1017
2008-11-06 19:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you believe?
2008-11-06 19:05:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: option 3, (which i do not prefer at this moment) is we crash from here
2008-11-06 19:05:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: option 1 I believe
2008-11-06 19:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sounds reasonable
2008-11-06 19:05:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we going into wave 2 up
2008-11-06 19:05:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: tgt spx 972 on top side max
2008-11-06 19:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have a MCO zero line test, so a bounce off the zero line would be expected
2008-11-06 19:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind
2008-11-06 19:06:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 950 is more comfortable
2008-11-06 19:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that we are (most likely) in a fifth wave panic situation
2008-11-06 19:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, any 2nd waves that might come about will probably be short lived AND will tend to pull up just short of any upside objectives
2008-11-06 19:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then again, we are in the middle of high volatility right now where we can hit upside objectives within hours
2008-11-06 19:07:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you would expect at least a 38% retrace for the 2 right?
2008-11-06 19:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be a nice target
2008-11-06 19:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be .236 as well
2008-11-06 19:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all depends on what the market reacts to
2008-11-06 19:08:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: gap up on jobs for A of 2, they fade the gap for B and rally to C, then we done
2008-11-06 19:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and tomorrow...we have the jobs report which isn't going to look very good
2008-11-06 19:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back the panic idea
2008-11-06 19:08:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not going to look as bad as people expect
2008-11-06 19:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price patterns within this larger 3rd wave decline will generally move with lightening speed
2008-11-06 19:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then you have to consider that the market has already discounted any "bad jobs data" the last couple of days which would give us the bounce
2008-11-06 19:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all very, very fluid here
2008-11-06 19:09:41 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-11-06 19:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I know is that we're impulsing lower with the angle of descent not very pretty right now
2008-11-06 19:09:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: consensus estimate is for minus 200k, the whisper number on the floor is minus 250k
2008-11-06 19:10:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Market just giving its vote of confidence to the new Congress
2008-11-06 19:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I didn't get the data in my mail, but I checked the numbers from Monster.com this morning
2008-11-06 19:10:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, can one reasonably expect that a wave 2 up in this environment can last 1 trading day?
2008-11-06 19:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: down 10 points...that's a huge number
2008-11-06 19:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's what I believe might happen here
2008-11-06 19:10:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or more likely intraday
2008-11-06 19:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we continue lower to test the lows of October, and any wave 2 that might come into the picture will probably start from that juncture
2008-11-06 19:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would be viewed as a successful test by many, and another bull trap will develop
2008-11-06 19:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then wave 3 will break October support and dash all hopes of a recovery
2008-11-06 19:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will begin the panic stage of the larger 5th wave
2008-11-06 19:12:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave this wave 1 was already 107 pts
2008-11-06 19:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so?
2008-11-06 19:12:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: measuring this out you almost break your 588 by wave 5
2008-11-06 19:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm talking more towards the psychology of the pattern
2008-11-06 19:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or pull up short
2008-11-06 19:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we continue to have major problems now - as I've said, this is far from over
2008-11-06 19:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have Wall Street on life support right now and it's very concerning (at least from my end)
2008-11-06 19:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the patient is nowhere near stable
2008-11-06 19:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know this by the large price swings
2008-11-06 19:14:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its terrible, like a bear market leaves no stocks unturned, this recession/depression going to leave all people floating on top of the water
2008-11-06 19:14:26 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: for the Elliott impaired, thought we were starting (V) of 3 of (3) will (v) be a five wave affair?
2008-11-06 19:14:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes whip
2008-11-06 19:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...wave (v) will be a five wave affair
2008-11-06 19:15:14 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: ty d & f
2008-11-06 19:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but sometimes the emotion that accompanies a pattern structure is so high that the pattern doesn't have enough time to unwind
2008-11-06 19:15:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: weird dave that you expect that 1 will be at oct bottom, looks like a clear 5 wave impulse down of 1 complete
2008-11-06 19:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about an extension?
2008-11-06 19:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're allowed one
2008-11-06 19:16:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sure we are, but even an extension would mean a wave 2 before we get another 1
2008-11-06 19:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the angle of decline here is painting a not so rosy picture
2008-11-06 19:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not necessarily
2008-11-06 19:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to think fast
2008-11-06 19:16:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, fib, you are saying down from here to test the lows then wave 2 up?
2008-11-06 19:17:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: don't extensions happen b/c the structure didn't get to meet its target and therefore extends to do so
2008-11-06 19:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to get the desired reaction here, things will have to fall apart very quickly and without anyone having a chance to respond
2008-11-06 19:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be one idea TM, yes
2008-11-06 19:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott aside
2008-11-06 19:17:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks for the clarification
2008-11-06 19:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must remember that we're watching the movement of the price structure itself as to if and when support will be seen
2008-11-06 19:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any other questions or comments before we get started?
2008-11-06 19:18:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: how long you expect it to take for this minute 5 to finish
2008-11-06 19:19:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a few days? or weeks?
2008-11-06 19:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when it's done, you will know it
2008-11-06 19:19:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: of course i will
2008-11-06 19:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-06 19:19:24 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: auto thingy gettin scary
2008-11-06 19:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: timing is really unimportant - only the trend is
2008-11-06 19:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-06 19:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you know that GMAC already received 5 billion dollars last week?
2008-11-06 19:20:16 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: no
2008-11-06 19:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe 2 weeks ago...but it was very hush hush
2008-11-06 19:20:35 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: asking for another 25 Bil?
2008-11-06 19:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: their asking for the taxpayers to take them over
2008-11-06 19:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: GM is toast - and so are all of those pensions
2008-11-06 19:20:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they're talking about adding autos to 700 billion bailout
2008-11-06 19:21:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: guess that 700 billion may need to go to 700 trillion
2008-11-06 19:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave...if you open the door, many feel entitled to walk through
2008-11-06 19:21:38 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: new Burn Rate numbers tomorrow I think much higher than $1 Bil/month
2008-11-06 19:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we're hearing that the same people that got the US in this mess are being positioned in very important positions
2008-11-06 19:22:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they gave out auto loans to the same people these banks gave mortgages too
2008-11-06 19:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we can leave that for another time
2008-11-06 19:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...Let's again review the combo charts first, and then we'll move into DP
2008-11-06 19:24:09 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: btw, NDX today bounced from the .618 of the recent big swing advance
2008-11-06 19:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYAD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=249
2008-11-06 19:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take out line of vision to the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-11-06 19:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here you'll see that - like magic - we are now at Gap resistance and starting to slow
2008-11-06 19:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCO, we seem to be snapping back to two areas of potential support
2008-11-06 19:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the zero line and what was the declining tops line that was previously controlling the pattern
2008-11-06 19:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also note that the raw data of the A/D line itself, was not able to hold above it's shorter term "trend" line, and the pattern is now back into a bearish configuation
2008-11-06 19:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: based on this simple chart analysis then, this is a critical time for the health of the market
2008-11-06 19:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for if we do start to accelerate lower, and thereby not able to move above gap resistance, the fallout from such a failure could be dramatic
2008-11-06 19:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for the bulls, they need to step up, or this thing could get way out of hand
2008-11-06 19:29:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't we need to accelerate lower to test the lows....by definition almost
2008-11-06 19:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the acceleration would be a kind of breakdown
2008-11-06 19:30:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: that what I meant
2008-11-06 19:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would show that although money was attempting to stabilize the structure, it wasn't able to do so...and selling would again accelerate
2008-11-06 19:30:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a test is pass fail, hard to see this test passing
2008-11-06 19:30:54 [Message] lew -> Main Room: right, but even after the engines are turned off-you drift a bit further(wave 2)...or so I've been told
2008-11-06 19:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry...I misunderstood
2008-11-06 19:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we could
2008-11-06 19:31:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: going str8 down from here is too easy for the bears
2008-11-06 19:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless we didn't achieve the necessary escape velocity prior to this same downside acceleration
2008-11-06 19:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not a market of bulls and bears now...this is a market of action and reaction
2008-11-06 19:31:47 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Eqity PC very high here
2008-11-06 19:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bulls will continue to buy the dips, and bears will unload for fear of a reversal
2008-11-06 19:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is NOT your normal market folks
2008-11-06 19:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't treat it as it was
2008-11-06 19:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I keep stressing to keep things simple
2008-11-06 19:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as many methodologies, and analytical tools, are not going to give you much of an edge during this kind of action
2008-11-06 19:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...there is order
2008-11-06 19:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the one component that no tool can give us is... the emotion of fear
2008-11-06 19:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is never to be underestimated
2008-11-06 19:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: computers are literal
2008-11-06 19:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they don't measure emotion
2008-11-06 19:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neither does mathematics
2008-11-06 19:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have to take ourselves off auto pilot, and fly this puppy under our own power
2008-11-06 19:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we find some stable air to fly in, keep it simple
2008-11-06 19:36:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the other night we were looking for a down day and a bounce to get short
2008-11-06 19:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that should tell you alot about what is going on here
2008-11-06 19:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind, that we were able to meet the upside SPX objective on Tuesday (within 2%)
2008-11-06 19:36:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i asked about the potential for the bounce to not happen if we dropped 500, and you said then we go up 300, why not drop 1000 over 2 days and bounce 300
2008-11-06 19:37:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for the vto's and such to get into place
2008-11-06 19:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you asked me, if I recall, IF the market could move down 500 and then up 300...and I said, why not?
2008-11-06 19:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is extremely weak
2008-11-06 19:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the very effort of the MCO moving to new all time highs on Tuesday was enough to flush the system
2008-11-06 19:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a bear market folks...and it looks to be nasty one
2008-11-06 19:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and IF we do break support here
2008-11-06 19:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and IF we do accelerate lower from here
2008-11-06 19:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and IF this all occurs with the current position of the MCO and MCSUM
2008-11-06 19:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then it's going be longer than next spring before we find a tradable bottom
2008-11-06 19:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me show you something as a reminder - one moment
2008-11-06 19:39:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: does a strong one day rally change the above, or was that more in the context of the next week or so
2008-11-06 19:40:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't bear markets need to break support in order to keep on being bear markets? That would be the expectation I think...
2008-11-06 19:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=1991-03-01&i=p80397518945&a=154579484&r=4745
2008-11-06 19:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the chart is the longer term NYAD with the NYA going back to 1991
2008-11-06 19:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can everyone see it?
2008-11-06 19:42:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats ugly
2008-11-06 19:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I will assume everyone can see the chart?
2008-11-06 19:43:09 [Message] lew -> Main Room: y
2008-11-06 19:43:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: see it fine
2008-11-06 19:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-11-06 19:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now I want you to look at the time period between 1998 and 2002
2008-11-06 19:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you see?
2008-11-06 19:43:51 [Message] locus -> Main Room: breadth led
2008-11-06 19:43:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: divergence?
2008-11-06 19:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...here's my question - how long did the A/D line rise before price followed?
2008-11-06 19:44:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: years
2008-11-06 19:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2, to be exact
2008-11-06 19:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the A/D line is slow and methodical
2008-11-06 19:45:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So you are thinking opposite action now?
2008-11-06 19:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it takes a large amount of time before a platform is set from which price can rally off of
2008-11-06 19:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, no, but every day that the A/D line continues to go lower, the longer it will take for price to find a platform to rally
2008-11-06 19:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we're in trouble now
2008-11-06 19:46:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: could take 2 years after the turn around for price to follow
2008-11-06 19:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-06 19:46:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Or, maybe go lower itself, the price that is
2008-11-06 19:46:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: likely both go lower
2008-11-06 19:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...there are exceptions to this
2008-11-06 19:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1994, for example
2008-11-06 19:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the bigger picture, without the A/D line finding support at any level, breadth can not lead price higher, and price will continue to decay
2008-11-06 19:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...anyone who is trying to catch a falling knife here is going to lose an arm...maybe more
2008-11-06 19:48:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, option premiums on leap puts were alot cheaper in oct of 07
2008-11-06 19:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is why any acceleration from here is not going to do much of any good
2008-11-06 19:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes - that would make sense
2008-11-06 19:48:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: nice entry, would of been
2008-11-06 19:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would a - should a - could a
2008-11-06 19:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can't live in the past
2008-11-06 19:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing we had in the strictest form is that we had bear divergence last year between the A/D line and price, and we were riding along a corrective channel
2008-11-06 19:49:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: of course not, biggest 1 day rallies come in bear markets, like two 1000 pt up days, hard to hold short in the face of seeing a third
2008-11-06 19:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why you have to keep it simple Dave
2008-11-06 19:50:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: define simple
2008-11-06 19:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott, oscillators, they're nice and fine
2008-11-06 19:50:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: short rallies?
2008-11-06 19:50:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cover crashes?
2008-11-06 19:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you are dealing with an animal that is in the process of mauling its victims
2008-11-06 19:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: simple...apply an EMA to the intraday charts
2008-11-06 19:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the path of least resistance remains lower
2008-11-06 19:51:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: forget day trading
2008-11-06 19:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: forget day trading?
2008-11-06 19:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-11-06 19:51:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: intraday trading is not right method for bear market, imo
2008-11-06 19:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for intermediate term investors/traders, you have either been out of the market - OR - you are utilizing inverse ETF
2008-11-06 19:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday trading is exceptional during times of high volatility
2008-11-06 19:52:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my point is, if spx is going to 588 or 724, the money being made is not with day trading - it's with riding the move lower
2008-11-06 19:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-11-06 19:53:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: There is lots of money to be made on the swings, dave
2008-11-06 19:53:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so, how would you define simple in context of riding the move down
2008-11-06 19:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're all talking the same thing
2008-11-06 19:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where is the confusion here?
2008-11-06 19:54:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: there weren't any bounces in last 2 days, so max profit is the actual decline that we saw
2008-11-06 19:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm not saying to throw out your technical tools
2008-11-06 19:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really? and if the market moves down another 500 tomorrow....?
2008-11-06 19:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you keep it simple, you won't care
2008-11-06 19:55:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just looking for your definition of simple in regards to the maximizing the move lower
2008-11-06 19:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not a rational market
2008-11-06 19:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I thought I shared an idea on that already?
2008-11-06 19:55:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for day trading
2008-11-06 19:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: evidently, I'm not understanding - give me an example
2008-11-06 19:56:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think you did indeed share several ideas already
2008-11-06 19:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from what I have read Dave, you have been switching back and forth on some ETF's?
2008-11-06 19:56:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you mentioned using an ema for day trading, you mentioned keeping it simple, define simple in the context of someone not day trading
2008-11-06 19:57:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-06 19:57:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sds and sso
2008-11-06 19:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-11-06 19:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you're making your buy and sell decisions intraday, right?
2008-11-06 19:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not close only
2008-11-06 19:57:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not necessarily
2008-11-06 19:57:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i mentioned i was going to look at closing prices
2008-11-06 19:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do I say here without giving too much away...
2008-11-06 19:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is running under fast conditions right now
2008-11-06 19:58:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i just don't get what you mean by simple in the context of trading this trend
2008-11-06 19:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: apply a simple EMA to the chart pattern - daily or intraday - whatever time frame you choose
2008-11-06 19:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not an SMA
2008-11-06 19:59:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what ema works for you
2008-11-06 19:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-06 19:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is your time frame?
2008-11-06 19:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you played with some from Tuesday?
2008-11-06 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's a clue
2008-11-06 19:59:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: time not issue, looking to maximize move lower in the market
2008-11-06 20:00:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you mention above about time
2008-11-06 20:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...so you want to squeeze out every single tick, eh?
2008-11-06 20:00:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no
2008-11-06 20:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anytime I see the word "maximize" I replace it with "squeeze"
2008-11-06 20:00:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you mentioned using an ema, and im sure many people here do not use that for entries and exits, so was asking what works for you
2008-11-06 20:01:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if you don't want to tell, thats ok
2008-11-06 20:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is nothing more exciting than the thrill of discovery
2008-11-06 20:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I'll give you a push (since I am so kind hearted)
2008-11-06 20:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think...Fibonacci
2008-11-06 20:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on and let's go to the DP
2008-11-06 20:02:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, i use lots of methods, not looking for the road map to your trading style, was simply asking what ema works for you, don't understand the games
2008-11-06 20:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now transversed all the way back to its zero line
2008-11-06 20:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think...Fibonacci
2008-11-06 20:03:13 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx
2008-11-06 20:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking down at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM, you will see that the rate of advance is now slowing right where we expected some potential resistance to show up in the pattern...at the previous ledge
2008-11-06 20:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components - after the 10% component moved up to test its zero line, it has now moved back to kiss it's 5% trend
2008-11-06 20:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so between the MCO being at its zero line, and the components being in this configuration, the expectation is that we should see a bounce near term
2008-11-06 20:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, keep in mind the current position of the MCSUM
2008-11-06 20:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only is it at its first resistance point, but with a reading of -1426, this strongly suggests that any rally that might be attempted will probably fail to acheive any follow through
2008-11-06 20:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we, of course, have talked about how price patterns react when the MCSUM is at extremes
2008-11-06 20:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as it doesn't necessarily mean if the MCSUM turns up (in this case) that price will do as well
2008-11-06 20:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the last two days is a good reminder of this important information
2008-11-06 20:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like a marathon runner sprinting from the starting line...price structures will run out of energy to continue the journey
2008-11-06 20:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we noted earlier, the composite NYSE breadth MCO also continued lower today, and now the NYSE breadth MCSUM is at gap resistance
2008-11-06 20:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the good news here is that with the MCO airing out its "overbought" nature in quick fashion
2008-11-06 20:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once again we are, by being at the zero line, at balance again looking for leadership
2008-11-06 20:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tough call here for the short term, and hopefully we'll get some insight with the other charts
2008-11-06 20:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also continued it's snapback journey towards its zero line
2008-11-06 20:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is a bit of a problem here as the CO data has already reached this same zero line, but the composite NYSE and NASDAQ has not
2008-11-06 20:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so unless the rest of the indices are already at their zero lines, we should see a near term continuation of this unwinding process that began yesterday
2008-11-06 20:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO has accomplished its snapback
2008-11-06 20:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as we continue to move through the data, make sure you that you check the position of the compoents right before Wednesday's sell off
2008-11-06 20:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many, you will note, found their 10% component at or near its zero line
2008-11-06 20:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was the reason why the market is slamming down hard and fast as we didn't have the underlying structure to support the over extended MCO readings
2008-11-06 20:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was, therefore, a correction, and a retracement was due to occur
2008-11-06 20:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, the market can not move in one direction or the other unless everything "underlying" is leading the way in this same direction
2008-11-06 20:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...in this case...many may have lost out on the one week reflex rally
2008-11-06 20:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 20% is nothing at all to sneeze at
2008-11-06 20:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but 10% in 2 days makes up for ones patience...and practice...and discipline
2008-11-06 20:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is always order
2008-11-06 20:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is repetition
2008-11-06 20:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there is the basic of physics here all in play
2008-11-06 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...TA wouldn't work
2008-11-06 20:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would all be random
2008-11-06 20:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it isn't
2008-11-06 20:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we try to prove that everyday, both here in the chat room, and on a personal basis
2008-11-06 20:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: full snapback on the SPX breadth MCO
2008-11-06 20:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and look where the SPX breadth MCSUM is - right at ledge resistance
2008-11-06 20:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we also generated a cross over sell signal on the components today
2008-11-06 20:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why if we do accelerate lower here, we will also make lower lows on the MCSUM
2008-11-06 20:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and just to think
2008-11-06 20:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that this same MCSUM only turned lower [u]today[/u]after already losing a large chunk of change
2008-11-06 20:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line test in progress on the OEX breadth MCO
2008-11-06 20:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM, it looks rather weak, and starting to curl to the downside right at ledge resistance
2008-11-06 20:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...what would be important for the bulls would be to see the SPX and OEX breadth MCO's hold right above their little "blip" support areas (seen right before the MCO's moved back above their zero lines last week) to have any chance to extend the reflex rally
2008-11-06 20:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow data is in the same situation as the OEX and SPX
2008-11-06 20:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: add the MID to that list, though the MID breadth MCO does remain above its zero line
2008-11-06 20:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line, but look at how much more upside the SML breadth MCSUM must travel just to get to this same hesitation point seen on the other charts
2008-11-06 20:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another 140 data points
2008-11-06 20:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means that the SML, RUT, small caps, are getting very little of whatever liquidity there is out there
2008-11-06 20:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's not at all a good thing
2008-11-06 20:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the total market data looks to be in the same boat as the composite NYSE breadth data
2008-11-06 20:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the TM breadth MCSUM approaching its own gap resistance area
2008-11-06 20:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....
2008-11-06 20:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big couple of days coming up here
2008-11-06 20:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the bulls fail to break above these current resistance areas as measured by the MCSUM's, it's going to a long time before we see any kind of chance of a sustainable rally develop
2008-11-06 20:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...besides the jobs numbers tomorrow, the President Elect has scheduled a his first news conference regarding the credit crisis
2008-11-06 20:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know when it's scheduled...but my guess is that he won't want to take any chances during the trading day
2008-11-06 20:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see what his plans might be...or better yet...if he's decided on a Treasury Secretary
2008-11-06 20:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be a trial balloon too
2008-11-06 20:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see
2008-11-06 20:29:52 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: 2:30pm EST http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4A585N20081106
2008-11-06 20:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's see how that goes - thanks tahiti
2008-11-06 20:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2008-11-06 20:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line MCO test on the CO - cross over sell
2008-11-06 20:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the MCSUM finding natural resistance at the -1250 level
2008-11-06 20:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO is testing its zero line
2008-11-06 20:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlike the breadth side which has yet to meet that objective
2008-11-06 20:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or, better said, volume is leading breadth to the downside
2008-11-06 20:32:12 [Message] swingtrader -> Main Room: hi, fib, could thix MCO retracement develop as buy spike? possible? Thanks!
2008-11-06 20:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rising bottoms line connecting the lows and the divergence seen, comes in around the -35 level
2008-11-06 20:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not likely ST as the A/D line itself is declining
2008-11-06 20:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: buy spikes generally happen during times in which the A/D line is rising, and is only correcting this direction
2008-11-06 20:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus - buy spikes generally occur only after the bulls have had multi week control of things before the dip
2008-11-06 20:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I don't think 3 days would be considered even one week
2008-11-06 20:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls, it's very important that they find support here, and again thrust higher in order to maintain...
2008-11-06 20:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1) their control and
2008-11-06 20:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2) their direction
2008-11-06 20:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is how the ledge and gap resistance areas act and react in the total context
2008-11-06 20:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ volume MCO is now back to its zero line...MCSUM at ledge resistance
2008-11-06 20:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX volume MCO back below its zero line...MCSUM wasn't able to move to its first resistance point
2008-11-06 20:40:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: how far would one large up day say 500 pts go toward pushing these mcsums past the resis? is more than a one day bounce needed to do so?
2008-11-06 20:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (though -1750 would be a natural point of resistance)
2008-11-06 20:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't it amazing how these 250 levels work as resistance points
2008-11-06 20:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know - you have it backwards
2008-11-06 20:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 500 points can be made on just a handful of stocks - the breadth line could be negative
2008-11-06 20:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price doesn't lead breadth
2008-11-06 20:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we see up 500, and breadth is flat
2008-11-06 20:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh boy...
2008-11-06 20:42:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, i am aware, however, its unlikely, and i didn't say price leads breadth
2008-11-06 20:42:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was just a question
2008-11-06 20:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know
2008-11-06 20:42:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it were my answer, than i would have it backwards
2008-11-06 20:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but your question led me to believe that you had it backwards
2008-11-06 20:42:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: nope
2008-11-06 20:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not going to argue
2008-11-06 20:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answer to your question is - I don't know
2008-11-06 20:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line snapback on the SPX volume MCO, and like its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCSUM is also up against ledge resistance
2008-11-06 20:44:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the question restated, if we were to have a 500 pt up day on 4 to 1 breadth, how far would that go in achieving what the bulls need
2008-11-06 20:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would go a long way
2008-11-06 20:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it would be an unlikely event given the conditions of the current market (my opinion)
2008-11-06 20:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is a marked difference between a technical rally to relieve an "oversold" condition than it is to a attempt for the market to make a foundational bottom
2008-11-06 20:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there isn't one here...
2008-11-06 20:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we do have bull divergence holding (so far)
2008-11-06 20:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that only was able to turn money flow from down to up
2008-11-06 20:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...more appropriately
2008-11-06 20:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was able to slow the rate of decay of the current outflows
2008-11-06 20:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to think like bears now
2008-11-06 20:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bull markets have different rules
2008-11-06 20:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line
2008-11-06 20:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until we get the MCSUM's back above the -500 level
2008-11-06 20:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're only looking for times in which to short
2008-11-06 20:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as every rally is doomed to fail
2008-11-06 20:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only question we don't know is...
2008-11-06 20:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how far will this bear rally last - and - how far will it need to go to exhaust the fuel
2008-11-06 20:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on Tuesday...we exhausted the fuel - and created a vacuum needing to be filled
2008-11-06 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had a pretty good idea that we would rally into an important news event, but when we continued to get that extra push, this created an even higher vacuum rate which needed filling
2008-11-06 20:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and down we went...by 10%
2008-11-06 20:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...we're in balance
2008-11-06 20:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one side is about to take control
2008-11-06 20:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technically...
2008-11-06 20:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls should attempt to move the market higher again
2008-11-06 20:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they may succeed in doing so
2008-11-06 20:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at what cost?
2008-11-06 20:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like trying to ride a motorcycle in the face of hurricane winds
2008-11-06 20:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might make some distance, but have to be careful that a cross wind doesn't knock you over
2008-11-06 20:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also of note on the SPX volume MCSUM is that we are in close proximity of testing what was the prior low readings seen in mid July that will also act as near term resistance
2008-11-06 20:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...
2008-11-06 20:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the market is going to break above these current levels
2008-11-06 20:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will have to do it with a flourish
2008-11-06 20:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something like 4:1 breadth might be enough
2008-11-06 20:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then again...it might not
2008-11-06 20:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crashes are T-R-I-C-K-Y!!!
2008-11-06 20:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what may look like a reversal, is only a pause
2008-11-06 20:54:37 [Message] lew -> Main Room: a nice pop, with bad breadth, negative divergence, boomy!
2008-11-06 20:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...from an Elliott perspective, we are also at a point in the pattern in which we have retraced at least 50% from the Tuesday highs...and in some cases....618
2008-11-06 20:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it would seem that we're coming into a confluence of events, and from which, clarity should become known
2008-11-06 20:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like...for example...what a new President might say that can either make or break a market that is already looking for a cure to its ills
2008-11-06 20:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interesting times
2008-11-06 20:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volume data looks terrible
2008-11-06 20:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX volume MCO moved back below its zero line
2008-11-06 20:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here's another volume MCSUM not being able to move up to test it's first resistance point
2008-11-06 21:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...this volume data is sickening
2008-11-06 21:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think last weeks divergences are going to hold
2008-11-06 21:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're so weak here
2008-11-06 21:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too far, too fast, and nothing of substance
2008-11-06 21:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's another way to look at it
2008-11-06 21:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order for the internals to get in better sync for a rally that will stick, we need to get both the MCO and it's components on the same page
2008-11-06 21:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...either one or two things must happen
2008-11-06 21:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1) the components rocket higher to join, and better yet, lead the MCO above the zero line or
2008-11-06 21:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2) the MCO will need to wash out again to reset the components so that they can move in unison again
2008-11-06 21:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making last weeks rally a "false start"
2008-11-06 21:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given that the A/D lines were not able to hold above their 10% trend
2008-11-06 21:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would favor the second option and maybe we'll get trend divergence
2008-11-06 21:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is - a higher low in the MCO, with the A/D line itself making lower lows
2008-11-06 21:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event
2008-11-06 21:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the likelihoods of last weeks divergences holding here is less than...oh...30%
2008-11-06 21:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the intermediate term breadth data is not at all suggesting bottoming action here
2008-11-06 21:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else can I say about the remaining volume McClellan charts? (shrug)
2008-11-06 21:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are now climactic which should be saying a change in price direction in the next trading day or two, however, the STVO's are still "overbought"
2008-11-06 21:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are continuing higher, with a couple up against declining tops lines now
2008-11-06 21:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...I do hope we get news tomorrow that will considered good
2008-11-06 21:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are futures flat?
2008-11-06 21:08:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they popped 10 min ago
2008-11-06 21:09:02 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: up 7 points in es
2008-11-06 21:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...good
2008-11-06 21:09:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50 on dow
2008-11-06 21:09:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 13 on nq
2008-11-06 21:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see if holds after Europe opens
2008-11-06 21:09:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hang seng, i believe opened down a 1000
2008-11-06 21:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Europe is in really big trouble now - especially the UK
2008-11-06 21:09:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: down 400 now
2008-11-06 21:10:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hang seng down 300 now
2008-11-06 21:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...now we're getting the kind of readings that would be expected for a 5th wave
2008-11-06 21:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 4.06
2008-11-06 21:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.09
2008-11-06 21:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look for even higher Open 10 numbers as we move along here
2008-11-06 21:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and check out the 21 day and 55 day NYSE TRIN's
2008-11-06 21:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new lows, and approaching the "TRIN 18" levels of earlier this year
2008-11-06 21:11:22 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: Europe - .50bp rate cut
2008-11-06 21:11:53 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: UK 1.5! bold move...
2008-11-06 21:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the lowest level for the BOE since...jeeeze...I can't remember when
2008-11-06 21:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rumors are that real estate in London proper is crashing
2008-11-06 21:13:13 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: "if you're gonna shoot, shoot. don't talk"
2008-11-06 21:13:27 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: if you're gonna cut, cut....
2008-11-06 21:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-11-06 21:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...
2008-11-06 21:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they have waited so long to do so
2008-11-06 21:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact
2008-11-06 21:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the head of the ECB said today that there "isn't any credit crisis"
2008-11-06 21:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.67
2008-11-06 21:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.07
2008-11-06 21:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 3.08
2008-11-06 21:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (these numbers are just unbelievable)
2008-11-06 21:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2008-11-06 21:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...big couple of days coming up
2008-11-06 21:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just don't really know how its all going to go
2008-11-06 21:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but a zero line/snapback bounce should be the technical expectation, and we'll see what Monday brings after that
2008-11-06 21:17:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I have a simple theory...
2008-11-06 21:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there isn't any volume to catch the fall
2008-11-06 21:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shoot
2008-11-06 21:17:26 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: the public hasn't capitulated
2008-11-06 21:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-11-06 21:17:34 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: forget 'vix' etc
2008-11-06 21:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-11-06 21:17:57 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: they've been told to hold, too late to sell, great values to be had, bounce is gonna come, etc etc
2008-11-06 21:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-06 21:18:30 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: financial tv doesn't provide anything useful to the investor
2008-11-06 21:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...they give good excuses so it doesn't hurt as much
2008-11-06 21:19:04 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: just my opinion
2008-11-06 21:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...has anyone see a technician interviewed, with a chart, on CNBC of late?
2008-11-06 21:19:42 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: a couple show up on fast money... they show oversold bullishness
2008-11-06 21:19:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, every day
2008-11-06 21:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I don't watch it past 10:00
2008-11-06 21:20:08 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: but they're young, haven't seen much in the ways of bear markets...
2008-11-06 21:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in the old days of FNN
2008-11-06 21:20:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they have the guy from Oppenheimer on all the time
2008-11-06 21:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would have always have a technician or two every hour showing a chart
2008-11-06 21:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, they ARE young
2008-11-06 21:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I saw this fellow from the NY Times this morning
2008-11-06 21:20:54 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: pups lol
2008-11-06 21:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just that...he was so young, and he was being given such stature
2008-11-06 21:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know anymore
2008-11-06 21:21:52 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: worst is Bartiromo - epitomizes the emotional investor
2008-11-06 21:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then again, I have been wrong too...so what do I know?
2008-11-06 21:22:21 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: down days: 'why is this HAPPENING!?' - almost looks like she's gonna cry...
2008-11-06 21:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know, I have never watched her in all the years shes been on the air
2008-11-06 21:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway
2008-11-06 21:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-11-06 21:22:50 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: great stuff as always!
2008-11-06 21:23:01 [Message] lew -> Main Room: THX much
2008-11-06 21:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice to hear...I thought I didn't have much to say
2008-11-06 21:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-11-06 21:24:08 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: AAII bulls keep growing, bears shrinking (little guy)...
2008-11-06 21:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to take off
2008-11-06 21:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-11-06 21:24:29 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: U2
2008-11-06 21:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again next Tuesday
2008-11-06 21:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-11-06 21:24:35 [Message] gman -> Main Room: good night
2008-11-06 21:26:09 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: DP hasn't updated the AAII #s, here they are: bulls 45%, bears 33%
2008-11-06 21:27:24 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: fwiw, LT avg bulls is only 39%!



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