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Posts: 4,789
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-05 16:01:37 fib1618: good day
2015-11-05 16:01:41 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-05 16:04:02 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-05 16:05:45 thespookyone: nope [smile]
2015-11-05 16:08:22 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-05 16:08:57 fib1618: after peaking out at just below the mid October highs
2015-11-05 16:09:13 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved lower for the last couple of days
2015-11-05 16:09:30 fib1618: but still remains above its zero line
2015-11-05 16:09:55 fib1618: while the NYSE CO breadth MCO components continue to be in a crossover bullish configuration
2015-11-05 16:10:40 fib1618: we also have a mid range close price bar today
2015-11-05 16:10:54 fib1618: which would suggest that we'll close up on Friday
2015-11-05 16:11:41 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-11-05 16:11:58 fib1618: and here we basically have the same situation as we do with the CO data
2015-11-05 16:12:24 fib1618: with this MCO still above its zero line
2015-11-05 16:12:35 fib1618: and the components remaining on a bullish crossover
2015-11-05 16:12:56 fib1618: overall
2015-11-05 16:13:45 fib1618: the last two days could be part of a simple technical snapback to what was the previous declining trend sequence in the MCO
2015-11-05 16:13:51 fib1618: so if this is the case
2015-11-05 16:14:00 fib1618: we should see a bounce higher sooner than later
2015-11-05 16:14:12 fib1618: with the important factor for the buyers to move above the mid October highs
2015-11-05 16:14:40 fib1618: and for the sellers, a break below last week's low point would be preferred
2015-11-05 16:15:17 fib1618: so it looks like we're again set up for another major move going into the jobs data in the morning
2015-11-05 16:16:59 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-11-05 16:17:24 fib1618: and here we're seeing quite a bit of buoyancy compared with the NYSE data
2015-11-05 16:17:36 fib1618: settling today with a reading of +20
2015-11-05 16:18:08 fib1618: this is probably due to the additional strength we saw going into Tuesday's trading
2015-11-05 16:18:18 fib1618: with this MCO actually breaking above the mid October highs
2015-11-05 16:18:55 fib1618: you can also see this inherent strength when looking at the gap we have between the 10% and 5% components
2015-11-05 16:19:48 fib1618: and here we are...knocking on the door of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM zero line going into tomorrow's data
2015-11-05 16:20:33 fib1618: noting that we see that this MCSUM was rejected at the zero line twice before in May and June
2015-11-05 16:20:55 fib1618: it will take a large post expansion to break above both of these levels of resistance - aka - a high plurality breadth day on the buy side
2015-11-05 16:21:15 fib1618: important decision looks to be upon now
2015-11-05 16:22:04 fib1618: with the FED Chairman ramping up the rhetoric this week on an interest rate increase being a good thing
2015-11-05 16:22:15 fib1618: while other economic indicators continue to sag
2015-11-05 16:22:31 fib1618: as we have talked about in the past
2015-11-05 16:23:18 fib1618: one would think that the FED is running out of time now to tighten before the Presidential campaign goes into high gear in February
2015-11-05 16:23:24 fib1618: to wit
2015-11-05 16:23:33 fib1618: this may be the last time this could be done without making it look political
2015-11-05 16:23:56 fib1618: let me check the overnight rates at the FED desk just for fun...brb
2015-11-05 16:25:04 fib1618: well...this is interesting
2015-11-05 16:25:31 fib1618: FED Funds futures are implying a 42% chance of a 1/4% bump in December
2015-11-05 16:25:44 fib1618: but a 58% chance of a half a point
2015-11-05 16:27:40 fib1618: overnight desk still at .12%
2015-11-05 16:27:49 fib1618: so not even a peep there of an impending change in policy
2015-11-05 16:28:03 fib1618: anyway
2015-11-05 16:28:37 fib1618: one would think that we will have clarity before the next meeting in mid December
2015-11-05 16:28:54 fib1618: though money is indicating that all of this is for naught
2015-11-05 16:29:16 fib1618: Eurodollar futures though still suggest higher short term rates
2015-11-05 16:29:25 fib1618: quite a whirlpool we have here
2015-11-05 16:29:35 fib1618: we'll just have to patient
2015-11-05 16:29:50 fib1618: as we suspected on Tuesday
2015-11-05 16:30:09 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO has finally broken down from its complex bullish structure
2015-11-05 16:30:18 fib1618: and has now moved towards its zero line
2015-11-05 16:30:28 fib1618: with a reading today of +7
2015-11-05 16:30:59 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-11-05 16:31:13 fib1618: and we see that the 10% has also snapped back to the 5% Trend
2015-11-05 16:31:26 fib1618: and this would then indicate that we should have a technical bounce higher as soon as tomorrow
2015-11-05 16:31:38 fib1618: mid range close on the NDX
2015-11-05 16:32:05 fib1618: looks like a simple price consolidation while waiting for more information
2015-11-05 16:32:14 fib1618: though we did snapback to the old highs today during the day
2015-11-05 16:33:09 fib1618: we have a small point change on the SPX breadth MCO tonight
2015-11-05 16:33:47 fib1618: and while it appears that we have perceptively broken below last Friday's lows
2015-11-05 16:34:27 fib1618: the SPX MCO components continue to show better strength of trend at this time
2015-11-05 16:34:31 fib1618: then again
2015-11-05 16:35:00 fib1618: we are now in week 5 of being above the SPX MCO zero line
2015-11-05 16:35:48 fib1618: so maybe a swipe to just below this same demarcation line between buyers and sellers might be something that could happen in the next couple of days
2015-11-05 16:35:59 fib1618: the market is giving us a lot of options here
2015-11-05 16:36:07 fib1618: but nothing as yet screaming this or that
2015-11-05 16:36:31 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is back to its zero line
2015-11-05 16:36:37 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2015-11-05 16:37:50 fib1618: with the buyers looking for an upside breakout above the current series of declining tops
2015-11-05 16:38:20 fib1618: while the sellers are hoping for a break below the zero line to put a cap on the upside momentum
2015-11-05 16:38:45 fib1618: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2015-11-05 16:39:10 fib1618: and here we are (not surprisingly) a day away from reaching the +500 level on the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-11-05 16:39:37 fib1618: looking at today's price bar though
2015-11-05 16:40:05 fib1618: and we see that the stops were taken out just below the intraday lows of Tuesday and Wednesday
2015-11-05 16:40:11 fib1618: and we then closed near the highs of the day
2015-11-05 16:40:26 fib1618: this would suggest that the buyers are in control overall
2015-11-05 16:40:50 fib1618: and a challenge of the 1470 level is likely to take place during the day on Friday
2015-11-05 16:41:21 fib1618: whether the bulls will succeed in moving above this level or not will be the real question come Friday afternoon
2015-11-05 16:41:50 fib1618: an even more bullish reversal price bar today on the SML
2015-11-05 16:42:20 fib1618: with very little selling in this basket of stocks over the last two days
2015-11-05 16:42:34 fib1618: could be one of those "whisper" moments
2015-11-05 16:42:58 fib1618: as traders take their positions going into Friday
2015-11-05 16:43:38 fib1618: and after challenging the mid October highs on Tuesday
2015-11-05 16:43:50 fib1618: we've seen very little in the way of selling here as well in the TM breadth MCO as the components remain on a crossover buy signal
2015-11-05 16:44:41 fib1618: so...
2015-11-05 16:45:02 fib1618: it would appear that the market has been going through the motions, churning, over the last couple of days
2015-11-05 16:45:17 fib1618: just biding its time until we get tomorrow's data on jobs
2015-11-05 16:45:29 fib1618: let me check to see if there's anything else for sec
2015-11-05 16:46:09 fib1618: just consumer credit at 3 Eastern
2015-11-05 16:46:27 fib1618: so we'll just have to see which way we go
2015-11-05 16:46:42 fib1618: consensus is 190,000
2015-11-05 16:47:03 fib1618: wow
2015-11-05 16:47:10 fib1618: even after last months surprise?
2015-11-05 16:47:18 fib1618: the consensus is really high here
2015-11-05 16:47:34 fib1618: I just don't see it
2015-11-05 16:47:45 fib1618: if I had to guess...
2015-11-05 16:48:09 fib1618: I would say that it's going to close to last month's 142,000
2015-11-05 16:48:20 fib1618: but then again
2015-11-05 16:48:28 fib1618: I'm not an economist
2015-11-05 16:48:35 fib1618: I just work for a living [smile]
2015-11-05 16:48:43 thespookyone: LOL
2015-11-05 16:48:56 fib1618: small point change on the XLY breadth MCO
2015-11-05 16:49:24 fib1618: with a simple high level consolidation in the price chart
2015-11-05 16:49:49 fib1618: the XLP could be an interesting play here near term
2015-11-05 16:50:08 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCO snapping back up to the -50 level
2015-11-05 16:50:18 fib1618: while the 10% Trend snapped back to its zero line
2015-11-05 16:50:41 fib1618: and the XLP breadth MCSUM moving down and through the +1000 level today
2015-11-05 16:51:05 fib1618: doesn't look like money is moving into other areas for the time being
2015-11-05 16:51:29 fib1618: snapback complete to the previous highs on the XLE price chart
2015-11-05 16:51:54 fib1618: with the XLE breadth MCSUM now up to the important +250 level
2015-11-05 16:52:04 fib1618: if the bulls are going to hang on to this reversal
2015-11-05 16:52:21 fib1618: they should blow through the +250 level without too much of a problem
2015-11-05 16:52:23 fib1618: however
2015-11-05 16:52:35 fib1618: if they fail to do so
2015-11-05 16:53:02 fib1618: we're likely to see a test of the lows seen recently at the $66 level
2015-11-05 16:53:48 fib1618: the XLE, by far, is the most interesting chart right now
2015-11-05 16:54:11 fib1618: as we can literally go either way with a vengeance in the next couple of days
2015-11-05 16:54:47 fib1618: just checked WTIC
2015-11-05 16:54:57 fib1618: and the pattern is moving net sideways
2015-11-05 16:55:02 fib1618: and VERY compressed
2015-11-05 16:55:35 fib1618: so there's going to be a big move here sooner than later
2015-11-05 16:56:06 fib1618: a break above Tuesday's intraday highs
2015-11-05 16:56:08 fib1618: with volume
2015-11-05 16:56:25 fib1618: would give the price pattern a real chance to retrace all that was lost
2015-11-05 16:56:39 fib1618: and bring back to the $82 level
2015-11-05 16:56:54 fib1618: we closed at $70.14 today
2015-11-05 16:57:11 fib1618: so 17% from here is the potential
2015-11-05 16:57:44 fib1618: the XLF is now neutral
2015-11-05 16:58:00 fib1618: though the buyers have a slight "lean" toward the current price structure
2015-11-05 16:58:24 fib1618: a rate increase would be good news for the financials
2015-11-05 16:58:41 fib1618: as they'll be able to make more money on their loans (gasp!)
2015-11-05 16:59:02 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart
2015-11-05 16:59:16 fib1618: and we see that we closed today at the top of the range of the right angle triangle
2015-11-05 16:59:27 fib1618: this would imply that we're about to break out to the upside near term
2015-11-05 16:59:55 fib1618: with expanding volume today on the higher close
2015-11-05 17:00:08 fib1618: don't know what the reason will be
2015-11-05 17:00:28 fib1618: but it looks like a move to the $25.50 level is likely
2015-11-05 17:00:38 fib1618: maybe more
2015-11-05 17:01:06 fib1618: the XLV data continues to support a rising trend in prices
2015-11-05 17:01:12 fib1618: no real change there from last week
2015-11-05 17:01:29 fib1618: small point change on the XLI breadth MCO
2015-11-05 17:01:50 fib1618: as the XLI breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2015-11-05 17:02:14 fib1618: so any follow through on Friday would then allow prices to challenge the all time highs
2015-11-05 17:02:51 fib1618: and we'll assume that the components that make up the Dow Industrials will be a major participant in this challenge
2015-11-05 17:03:32 fib1618: the XLB is showing a lot of resistance right now at the $46 level
2015-11-05 17:03:52 fib1618: with the XLB breadth MCO near its zero line
2015-11-05 17:04:08 fib1618: and the XLB breadth MCSUM around the +250 level
2015-11-05 17:04:25 fib1618: so it looks like that a decision is about to be made there very soon
2015-11-05 17:04:50 fib1618: not a good day for the XLK
2015-11-05 17:05:01 fib1618: as we had a outside range reversal bar today
2015-11-05 17:05:05 fib1618: let me check the volume
2015-11-05 17:05:23 fib1618: with little volume to go with it
2015-11-05 17:05:34 fib1618: so we'll call it a false start
2015-11-05 17:06:26 fib1618: looks like we're going to see a technical bounce though as soon as Friday according to the XLK breadth MCO components
2015-11-05 17:07:04 fib1618: and though the XLU breadth MCO and its components continue to suggest a corrective sequence
2015-11-05 17:07:51 fib1618: a quick trip to the $43 is likely given how the MCO was not able to fully snapback to its zero line
2015-11-05 17:08:15 fib1618: and this caused the XLU breadth MCSUM to move down and through the +1250 level today
2015-11-05 17:08:30 fib1618: so like another defensive sector, consumer staples
2015-11-05 17:08:55 fib1618: the XLU is looking like "old news" for the buyers right now
2015-11-05 17:09:22 fib1618: with money moving into the other equity pools
2015-11-05 17:09:25 fib1618: so...
2015-11-05 17:09:42 fib1618: there's several reasons why we could continue higher here
2015-11-05 17:10:00 fib1618: and there are many more reasons why we could just chop around for a couple of weeks as well
2015-11-05 17:10:32 fib1618: lots of "indecision"...but that seems to have been the word of day for the last several months now, hasn't it?
2015-11-05 17:11:08 fib1618: CVI's are neutral
2015-11-05 17:11:18 fib1618: STVO's are tipping toward neutral
2015-11-05 17:11:33 fib1618: so one side is going to take control here
2015-11-05 17:11:55 fib1618: VTO's remain on the "overbought" side
2015-11-05 17:12:12 fib1618: but have eased off enough to wear another climb up the price step ladder is possible
2015-11-05 17:12:33 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.16
2015-11-05 17:12:42 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2015-11-05 17:12:46 fib1618: still "oversold"
2015-11-05 17:13:04 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.42
2015-11-05 17:13:19 fib1618: Open 10 now at .91
2015-11-05 17:13:28 fib1618: so neutral there (finally)
2015-11-05 17:13:45 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.36
2015-11-05 17:13:54 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2015-11-05 17:13:57 fib1618: so...
2015-11-05 17:14:19 fib1618: the good news for the bulls is that in spite of our being up near double digit over the last month
2015-11-05 17:14:31 fib1618: we remain either "oversold" to neutral
2015-11-05 17:14:48 fib1618: with no indication of a tradable top at this time
2015-11-05 17:15:00 fib1618: so if we do find it hard going to the north
2015-11-05 17:15:08 fib1618: we'll likely see shallow pullbacks
2015-11-05 17:15:19 fib1618: that will likely last only a day...maybe two
2015-11-05 17:15:30 fib1618: but if we had to make a decision here
2015-11-05 17:15:50 fib1618: it's probably best to go with the side that's showing the best control here...and that's the buyers
2015-11-05 17:15:54 fib1618: it's theirs to lose
2015-11-05 17:16:07 fib1618: though after what happened earlier in the week
2015-11-05 17:16:24 fib1618: it's not likely that we'll see any significant pullbacks until...well...maybe OPEX
2015-11-05 17:16:35 fib1618: which is 2 weeks from now
2015-11-05 17:16:47 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-11-05 17:18:12 fib1618: -25
2015-11-05 17:18:34 fib1618: with the Canadian and ETF's issues that remain the problems
2015-11-05 17:19:06 fib1618: anyway...the table is set...time again to play musical chairs
2015-11-05 17:19:11 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-05 17:20:29 fib1618: NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's are also at their zero lines
2015-11-05 17:20:47 fib1618: so are the NDX, SPX
2015-11-05 17:21:13 fib1618: the OEX and Dow
2015-11-05 17:21:20 fib1618: talk about being flat!
2015-11-05 17:21:43 fib1618: bunch of skittish cats if you ask me!
2015-11-05 17:22:00 fib1618: ready to jump at the slightest noise
2015-11-05 17:22:07 fib1618: should be interesting
2015-11-05 17:22:59 fib1618: no matter what
2015-11-05 17:23:07 fib1618: I'm thinking the real story will be with the XLE over the next couple of days
2015-11-05 17:23:12 fib1618: just a hunch
2015-11-05 17:23:28 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-11-05 17:23:38 fib1618: I'm gonna jump ship and take an early leave
2015-11-05 17:23:43 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-11-05 17:23:48 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-11-05 17:23:50 fib1618: good night

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