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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-04 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-04 16:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-04 16:00:29 [Message] darris -> Chat: Great day for sure. Can not wait for your assessment of how high we go
2010-11-04 16:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the moon!!
2010-11-04 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-04 16:01:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: Watch the sky! Allow da cheif back on TT. Yahoo Whoopee
2010-11-04 16:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you imagine?
2010-11-04 16:01:26 [Message] darris -> Chat: Dow 100,000
2010-11-04 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...now you know what can happen in a 3rd wave
2010-11-04 16:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergence be damned!
2010-11-04 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-11-04 16:02:03 [Message] darris -> Chat: Gold up $55 and silver almost 2 bucks today
2010-11-04 16:02:22 [Message] darris -> Chat: Dollar did not get hammered to bad, and did not close on the LOD
2010-11-04 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..it's not a given that the dollar and gold move inversely
2010-11-04 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's only a vicious rumor that sometimes happens
2010-11-04 16:03:19 [Message] darris -> Chat: Definitely a short squeeze after the drop from 1365 to 1325 yesterday morning
2010-11-04 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most definitely
2010-11-04 16:03:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: Probably all time new high today for some quotes
2010-11-04 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for gold?
2010-11-04 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure
2010-11-04 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2010-11-04 16:04:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: Yes, I do not think it hit but around 1393 last month and I saw 1395 today
2010-11-04 16:04:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: OK, thanks for the intro
2010-11-04 16:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time closing high per Stockcharts
2010-11-04 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1392.30 - top tick
2010-11-04 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yowsa!
2010-11-04 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...about $450.00 to go to reach the technical objective there
2010-11-04 16:05:31 [Message] darris -> Chat: New recovery high for spx as well intraday and closing
2010-11-04 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2010-11-04 16:05:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: tomorrow, more up highly likely?, how much SPX?
2010-11-04 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a nice breakout
2010-11-04 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..after a day like today
2010-11-04 16:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you generally have one of 3 things happen all depending
2010-11-04 16:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one...you follow through as shorts run to cover
2010-11-04 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two...you consolidate the gains...take a breather
2010-11-04 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: three...you snapback to the breakout line
2010-11-04 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we were compressing for about a week
2010-11-04 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "release" will probably see more upside follow through tomorrow
2010-11-04 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will then have the Sunday shows all taking about the breakout
2010-11-04 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will then bring in Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie on Monday
2010-11-04 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect technical world, of course
2010-11-04 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see the XLF?
2010-11-04 16:08:38 [Message] tracca -> Chat: fireworks
2010-11-04 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakout
2010-11-04 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much left to "worry about"
2010-11-04 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was only a matter of time
2010-11-04 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew this for the last 2 weeks
2010-11-04 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BAC was up 5%
2010-11-04 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes...
2010-11-04 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to "fade" yourself from time to time
2010-11-04 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm looking forward to the data...so let me get DP up and see what we have
2010-11-04 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA closed above its April highs today
2010-11-04 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCO also moved briskly higher as well today
2010-11-04 16:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now testing the reaction highs of mid October
2010-11-04 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this upside move today in the MCO gave us a nice expansion gap to the upside on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-11-04 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it is a high probability that we will break above the recent highs by tomorrow
2010-11-04 16:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the near term the bulls would like to see a break above the mid October highs on the CO MCO to be called "in the clear:
2010-11-04 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is...
2010-11-04 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we will then see the CO breadth MCSUM move to the next level of probable resistance - the +1000 level
2010-11-04 16:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2010-11-04 16:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-11-04 16:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM is lagging a bit in its approach to this same mid October point
2010-11-04 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the longevity of any follow through we might see
2010-11-04 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that the composite MCSUM also move above this same high point
2010-11-04 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't necessarily have to lead the CO data to the upside
2010-11-04 16:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is that the composite MCSUM is still at a higher amplitude than that of the CO data
2010-11-04 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...in reality...it continues to lead the commons
2010-11-04 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we want now is for the engine to move in unison
2010-11-04 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a beautiful gap higher today on the NASDAQ composite index
2010-11-04 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this gap is going to be very important as to one of the choices we might see for tomorrow
2010-11-04 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a measuring gap...we will see option number 1
2010-11-04 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a exhaustion gap....we will see option number 1 or 2
2010-11-04 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a pattern gap...we will see option number 3
2010-11-04 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it turns out to be a measuring gap
2010-11-04 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then be able to zero in on a price objective for this current price structure
2010-11-04 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is that measuring gaps occur halfway from the bottom to the top of this same price structure
2010-11-04 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for fun
2010-11-04 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's measure
2010-11-04 16:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's call it 2550 as the center point
2010-11-04 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beginning point at 2100
2010-11-04 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's 450 points
2010-11-04 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 450 points plus 2550 = 3000
2010-11-04 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is above the 2007 highs
2010-11-04 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about half way down between the 2000 top and the 2002 lows
2010-11-04 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should provide 50% retracement resistance
2010-11-04 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's a good blueprint
2010-11-04 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF
2010-11-04 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a exhaustion gap doesn't have to be an island reversal
2010-11-04 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could chop around for another day or two...and then see either a hard down or a break-away gap to the downside
2010-11-04 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the internals, however, this seems to be least likely outcome
2010-11-04 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pattern gap would be quickly filled...within a day or so
2010-11-04 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you have it
2010-11-04 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first choice is the higher percentage
2010-11-04 16:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern gap is next on the list
2010-11-04 16:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exhaustion gap the least likely
2010-11-04 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a confirmation of which gap it is will lie with the breadth data
2010-11-04 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means...the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM should quickly move above the +500 level
2010-11-04 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart to see how it looks
2010-11-04 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...found support right on the 19 day EMA - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naad110410.png
2010-11-04 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have breadth confirmation of the move higher today
2010-11-04 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this were an exhaustion gap
2010-11-04 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth would not be confirming
2010-11-04 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's the least likely outcome
2010-11-04 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the NAUD did today...one moment
2010-11-04 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continuing to streak higher - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naud110410.png
2010-11-04 16:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I moved my cores today...did everyone see the post?
2010-11-04 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll get the link
2010-11-04 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=4957771
2010-11-04 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two I'm really excited about here are the XLF and the URE
2010-11-04 16:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at a multi month rally on both sectors
2010-11-04 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know how high...but the direction is up
2010-11-04 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO continues to power higher
2010-11-04 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should be good for the XLK in general
2010-11-04 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has anyone been noticing the SOX lately?
2010-11-04 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Darris?
2010-11-04 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: power move higher today
2010-11-04 16:34:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: I am on it, but what do you mean? BP?
2010-11-04 16:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just the price pattern
2010-11-04 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure the BPI this week is going to be above 50
2010-11-04 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it isn't, I'll be surprised
2010-11-04 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...watch the +1250 MCSUM level on the NDX breadth data
2010-11-04 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we clear that...my my
2010-11-04 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also look at the price pattern
2010-11-04 16:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can now start to see the "runaway" action we've been talking about for about a week now
2010-11-04 16:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new closing highs today above the April period in the SPX
2010-11-04 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoa....and the SPX breadth MCO has broken out to the upside
2010-11-04 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a possibility of a breadth thrust going on right now
2010-11-04 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we've been talking about the last week or so as one idea
2010-11-04 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it was going to take fresh money to power above the April highs
2010-11-04 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that today
2010-11-04 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it also on the OEX
2010-11-04 16:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the OEX price pattern has yet to clear its April highs
2010-11-04 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the OEX to follow soldiers
2010-11-04 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what can you say about the Dow that hasn't already been said?
2010-11-04 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID closed above its April highs today
2010-11-04 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM confirmed the breakout
2010-11-04 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would still like to see a move above the October highs on the MID breadth MCO to call the "all clear"
2010-11-04 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same story with the SML...though the price pattern remains below its April highs
2010-11-04 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new recovery highs on the Total Market index
2010-11-04 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the internals are lagging a bit
2010-11-04 16:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why tomorrow is kind of important here
2010-11-04 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls want to see good follow through to leave no doubt that the market, in total, is running on all cylinders
2010-11-04 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hesitation would probably bring in a 2-3 day pause before proceeding
2010-11-04 16:43:20 [Message] darris -> Chat: One thing I noticed on why the internals were a bit weak today, is that flight to safety stocks were being sold, like PFE, Merck, etc
2010-11-04 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the XLV and XLU, all of the other sectors gapped higher today
2010-11-04 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would make good sense
2010-11-04 16:44:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: And by weak, just mean on a relative basis with such a strong move up
2010-11-04 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that the economy is actually starting to expand (or perceived to be)
2010-11-04 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that defensive issues can be sold for more risk
2010-11-04 16:45:19 [Message] darris -> Chat: exactly my thoughts
2010-11-04 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the XLV and XLF...all of the sectors closed at new highs
2010-11-04 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO and composite volume MCO's powered higher today
2010-11-04 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes sense given the "oversold" nature of the NYSE Open 10
2010-11-04 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this consistent
2010-11-04 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the NASDAQ volume MCO may not have had a power move higher today because it was already "overbought" - let's look
2010-11-04 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2010-11-04 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still below the +50 level
2010-11-04 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX volume MCSUM
2010-11-04 16:47:47 [Message] darris -> Chat: yes, tech did not participate on a realtive basis at all today. It had already arrived, LOL
2010-11-04 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the gap up today took place right at the point in which this MCSUM moved to new highs
2010-11-04 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...the SPX volume MCO also moved to new highs along with its breadth cousin
2010-11-04 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slightly so on the OEX volume MCO
2010-11-04 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no doubt at all on the Dow
2010-11-04 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that the Dow volume MCSUM was able to hold at its zero line for the last 2 weeks
2010-11-04 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is power by the bulls (or lack of strength of the bears)
2010-11-04 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO moved nicely higher today
2010-11-04 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML volume MCO moved with a lot of vigor to the upside today
2010-11-04 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this probably suggests that the breadth side will join in this same exuberance
2010-11-04 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing wrong with volume at all
2010-11-04 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the breakouts today by and large
2010-11-04 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-11-04 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a statement day by the bulls
2010-11-04 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they waited for all of the information they needed to know
2010-11-04 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the President said that the Bush tax cuts are probably going to stay in place..that's all that was needed to ignite the breakout
2010-11-04 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-04 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember last month on what I thought we would see with tomorrow's jobs data?
2010-11-04 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the reason for it?
2010-11-04 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to refresh
2010-11-04 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm expecting "better than expected" numbers tomorrow
2010-11-04 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because most of the holiday hiring takes place in 2nd and 3rd week of October
2010-11-04 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what the expectation is
2010-11-04 16:54:47 [Message] darris -> Chat: +63K
2010-11-04 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +60
2010-11-04 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 9.7%
2010-11-04 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high side +97,000
2010-11-04 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gut...?
2010-11-04 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be at all surprised at +150,000
2010-11-04 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm not an economist
2010-11-04 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't follow the stuff
2010-11-04 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the reaction
2010-11-04 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...anything at +60 or above should be cheered
2010-11-04 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2010-11-04 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's now "overbought"
2010-11-04 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're a day or two away from a top of some kind
2010-11-04 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can take out the CVI highs of the beginning of September
2010-11-04 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're more than likely going for the 2007 highs
2010-11-04 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice zero line bounce on the SPX, OEX, and Dow STVO's
2010-11-04 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we mean when we say that "one side is going to take control" when we see these oscillators at the zero line
2010-11-04 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX VTO's is now "overbought"
2010-11-04 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but can remain so while it waits for the SPX, OEX and Dow to catch up
2010-11-04 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...still looking bullish there
2010-11-04 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .57
2010-11-04 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2010-11-04 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-11-04 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting
2010-11-04 17:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.02
2010-11-04 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .71
2010-11-04 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "overbought"
2010-11-04 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .92
2010-11-04 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .79
2010-11-04 17:01:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: considering the NDX is basically already at the 2007 highs, would you expect the ndx to double from here if the spx were to re-capture the 2007 highs? thanks
2010-11-04 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we have a measuring gap in play
2010-11-04 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's measure...shall we?
2010-11-04 17:02:01 [Message] darris -> Chat: Absolutely, this is an important day
2010-11-04 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid point... 2175
2010-11-04 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: start point.... 1750
2010-11-04 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's 425 points plus 2175 = 2600
2010-11-04 17:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhhhh....yea
2010-11-04 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would also be the mid point of the decline from 2000
2010-11-04 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...a double...not likely
2010-11-04 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a nice trend to the upside?
2010-11-04 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-11-04 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the gap question will be answered by Tuesday
2010-11-04 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we won't have long to wait to find out
2010-11-04 17:05:55 [Message] darris -> Chat: Just basically saying that a 30% rise in the spx from here which would be the 2007 highs, the ndx would most likely rise 40-50%, so a little over 3000 would be a rough target
2010-11-04 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't have a good way to measure that as yet
2010-11-04 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the measuring gap right now
2010-11-04 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we get follow through
2010-11-04 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then I will get new upsides to work with
2010-11-04 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2010-11-04 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much money
2010-11-04 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much to make up for
2010-11-04 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have moved above the April highs
2010-11-04 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so with a resounding tone
2010-11-04 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no telling how much this snowball will pick up
2010-11-04 17:07:45 [Message] darris -> Chat: NYSE commons only equally weighted made a new all time high today by 1.5%
2010-11-04 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the weighted and the EW are in sync right now?
2010-11-04 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or are you talking the 2007 highs?
2010-11-04 17:09:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: the nyse commons only EW made a new all time high in April 2010 by 2000 pts or roughly 12%
2010-11-04 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...thanks
2010-11-04 17:09:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: NYSE is 3000 pts away from 2007 highs
2010-11-04 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to see something jaw dropping?
2010-11-04 17:09:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: so about 50% from here
2010-11-04 17:09:56 [Message] darris -> Chat: yes, !!!
2010-11-04 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check this out - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/PVI.html
2010-11-04 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at all the put buyers today!
2010-11-04 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so...we almost had a PVI buy signal
2010-11-04 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was NOT expected
2010-11-04 17:10:57 [Message] darris -> Chat: OEX call volume has been huge the last two weeks, wink wink
2010-11-04 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it adds gasoline to the fuel
2010-11-04 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the retail buyers came out swinging and thinking this was a blow off
2010-11-04 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the only explanation I can think of
2010-11-04 17:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have folks been talking blow off here?
2010-11-04 17:12:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: IYB mentioned it this week
2010-11-04 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-04 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks don't blow off
2010-11-04 17:12:20 [Message] darris -> Chat: will see more of it this weekend
2010-11-04 17:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless they've become commodities
2010-11-04 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line remains...watch the direction of gold
2010-11-04 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as it moves higher...so will stocks
2010-11-04 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just think
2010-11-04 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the excess that gold is showing now in moving prices higher
2010-11-04 17:13:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: hopefully the Dollar will not have to be crushed in the process
2010-11-04 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same excess won't see the stock market for another 18 months (on average)
2010-11-04 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will see a test of 72 on the Dollar
2010-11-04 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that...don't know
2010-11-04 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the FED won't have to stimulate anymore
2010-11-04 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because stocks will have gone high enough to where the average Joe and Jane will figure that the economy is getting better because their portfolios are
2010-11-04 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will stimulate retail buying
2010-11-04 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will then produce earnings
2010-11-04 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then gives us still further higher prices in stocks
2010-11-04 17:15:10 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good to hear that. If they blow the dollar, then all of this will not be worth anything in the end anyway
2010-11-04 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we have to see what the new Congress is able to rescind
2010-11-04 17:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2010-11-04 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they keep the Tax cuts
2010-11-04 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's going to stimulate investment because of the lower Capital Gains taxes
2010-11-04 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...the lower amount you pay in income taxes
2010-11-04 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that then gives you that much more for investment
2010-11-04 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then if they can tear apart the Health Care plan
2010-11-04 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and make it more user friendly without fear of IRS retribution
2010-11-04 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that will give that much more for investment
2010-11-04 17:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2010-11-04 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lower dollar is great news for foreigners
2010-11-04 17:17:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: sort of off topic, but related. Everyone should open a Roth IRA just to have it, just in case high income people can not open one up in the future. If they keep the Roths (tax free capital gains) going, that will be the place to do some serious investing over the years
2010-11-04 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as its stable
2010-11-04 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ROTH is the only place to be
2010-11-04 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm shocked they haven't taken that away yet
2010-11-04 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open as many as you can before they do
2010-11-04 17:18:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: I boosted my Roth with a partial conversion so I could trade futures in it
2010-11-04 17:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's many advantage
2010-11-04 17:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best being that you don't have to worry about taxes later
2010-11-04 17:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if they can just get rid of the estate and death taxes
2010-11-04 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would boom
2010-11-04 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...what else is on your collective minds?
2010-11-04 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope none of you got hurt today
2010-11-04 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more hopeful you had a great day!
2010-11-04 17:20:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: I always like to ask this, but each time we get together I would like to know how much of one's assets should be invested in the market long term here.
2010-11-04 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have problems answering that question
2010-11-04 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason being
2010-11-04 17:21:09 [Message] darris -> Chat: I am not an investor. but If I thought it was that safe, I would try investing again
2010-11-04 17:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know anything about anyone's personal situation or their demeanor
2010-11-04 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing to do
2010-11-04 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is use your experience in conjunction to the direction of money flow
2010-11-04 17:21:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: if one has 100K to invest in the market, what percentage should be invested as an example
2010-11-04 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welll...I guess you can use my post on my Cores as a guide
2010-11-04 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I went in at 80%
2010-11-04 17:22:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: OK, that is good enough for the answer. thanks
2010-11-04 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the best, and only way, I would be comfortable
2010-11-04 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spread it out
2010-11-04 17:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice my allocation in reference to the sector McClellan data
2010-11-04 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: age is also a factor in this
2010-11-04 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: someone at 30 can take more risk and exposure than someone who is 60
2010-11-04 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...continue to follow the trend
2010-11-04 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs today on the NYAD
2010-11-04 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYUD broke above the May resistance high we talked about last Tuesday today
2010-11-04 17:25:38 [Message] gman -> Chat: dave, why 20 % into the xlf? We have been talking how it has been lagging for sometime now. Did it's break above it's Aug high play a part in the decision to include it as part of your core investments?
2010-11-04 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason is mainly because it's been compressing for a long while
2010-11-04 17:26:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: demographics is understood. I just want to know if you are willing to take understood stock market risks, how much would be OK at this point. Thanks for the clarifications. I am sort of asking the question like Charles or geosing would ask it of you. Charles at TT, the IBD investor.
2010-11-04 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been the sector that we saw turn away 4 times at 15
2010-11-04 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a pattern gap higher today
2010-11-04 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it showed a robust move with the majority of the components
2010-11-04 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sentiment has been horrible prior to this gap higher
2010-11-04 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with BAC
2010-11-04 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the rest of the market breaking above resistance
2010-11-04 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now time for the laggards to play catch up
2010-11-04 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...IBD generally only gives a buy or sell signal with no mention of allocation
2010-11-04 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's very difficult to suggest allocation without knowing all the variables
2010-11-04 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I tend to stay away from answering the question
2010-11-04 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have noticed over the last couple of weeks when you've asked it
2010-11-04 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: John...does my answer make sense?
2010-11-04 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions?
2010-11-04 17:30:53 [Message] gman -> Chat: yea it does. that has also been where I have been waiting for the proper time top buy. i too made purchases today and it was comforting to see that you also did the same
2010-11-04 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we waited patiently for the pieces to fall in place
2010-11-04 17:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had certain criteria that needed to be seen before we moved in
2010-11-04 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that today
2010-11-04 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note my disclaimer that we are "overbought", so I'm keeping a tight leash on my allocation
2010-11-04 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see follow through now
2010-11-04 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how I did in the last hour...one moment
2010-11-04 17:33:15 [Message] gman -> Chat: duly noted
2010-11-04 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...finished up .4% on the day
2010-11-04 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE closed lower than my entry - all else closed in the green
2010-11-04 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll take it
2010-11-04 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that I bought with 90 minutes to go and the market had already seen its best gains well before hand
2010-11-04 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about the close was the short covering in the financial stocks
2010-11-04 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need some follow through
2010-11-04 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's one heck of a price bar today on the daily
2010-11-04 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got the volume to go with it
2010-11-04 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can classify it as a "high volume breakout to the upside"
2010-11-04 17:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you pull up a chart on the XLF
2010-11-04 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and apply a 20, 50 and 200 day EMA
2010-11-04 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see how tightly wound we were
2010-11-04 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be in a bullish configuration tomorrow
2010-11-04 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-11-04 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the plan here is to do your homework this weekend
2010-11-04 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look over all the sector charts
2010-11-04 17:37:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: I just want to make money. Thanks
2010-11-04 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also look over the global indices as well
2010-11-04 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I knew we were going to have a great day because of the CAC and FTSE
2010-11-04 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were screaming higher over night
2010-11-04 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the bottom line...we just want to make money
2010-11-04 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more importantly
2010-11-04 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to lose any either
2010-11-04 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we remained patient...with a bullish bias...for the last several weeks
2010-11-04 17:39:10 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is why, in future chats, I will be asking a different question now. What should our stop be, smile.
2010-11-04 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully now...our patience will be rewarded
2010-11-04 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go ahead...
2010-11-04 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2010-11-04 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I tend to give you that answer during the chats
2010-11-04 17:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just may not be as specific as you would like
2010-11-04 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone should be very excited here
2010-11-04 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep within yourselves
2010-11-04 17:40:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: I have very little tolerance for draw down after the last 3 years
2010-11-04 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market continue to show you it's intentions
2010-11-04 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...you've become a better trader then
2010-11-04 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so quick to trigger
2010-11-04 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for your set ups
2010-11-04 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it take time to break the emotional part of trading
2010-11-04 17:41:47 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is why I asked. I can go long the YM and continue to trade the ES like I normally do. That is what I have always wanted to do.
2010-11-04 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2010-11-04 17:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being a trader and being an investor are two very different styles
2010-11-04 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and needs to be looked with a different eye
2010-11-04 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't mix the two
2010-11-04 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...you can trade the ETF's and not worry about slippage (just a suggestion)
2010-11-04 17:43:53 [Message] darris -> Chat: Exactly, and that is where I can use help in making a distinction between them. I always mix them, and if I lock away a long term investment, and try to not worry about it, I might do better with having something long all the time. thanks
2010-11-04 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...as an investor...I would suggest you consider ETF's
2010-11-04 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: automatically you'll trade them differently
2010-11-04 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't have to worry about margin
2010-11-04 17:45:22 [Message] darris -> Chat: Just my own personal preference, but ETFs cost too much from a margin basis so the slippage on a YM futures contract is not enough for me to worry about, only $250 per contract per quarter
2010-11-04 17:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I don't make suggestions
2010-11-04 17:46:10 [Message] darris -> Chat: $6000 margin for YM and $66K worth of stock, so about 10:1 leverage right now
2010-11-04 17:46:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: NP, I am very pleased with this discussion.
2010-11-04 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a matter of trading up to your "incompetence" level as the Peter Principle would dictate
2010-11-04 17:47:32 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well, I did not follow that
2010-11-04 17:47:44 [Message] gman -> Chat: some of us are just a bit more "incompetent" that others
2010-11-04 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: youngster!
2010-11-04 17:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amen
2010-11-04 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2010-11-04 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to go out for dinner tonight
2010-11-04 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening and weekend
2010-11-04 17:48:22 [Message] darris -> Chat: Enjoy
2010-11-04 17:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll talk again on Tuesday
2010-11-04 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-04 17:48:54 [Message] gman -> Chat: enjoy and we'll look forward to next Tuesday's chat. Thanks Dave.

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