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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-04 19:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-04 19:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-04 19:00:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: gd
2008-11-04 19:00:39 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: having fun
2008-11-04 19:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-04 19:01:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: New bull market is born
2008-11-04 19:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of course
2008-11-04 19:01:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: highest MCO in last 3 years......maybe more
2008-11-04 19:01:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: mco's new 3 year highs
2008-11-04 19:01:49 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NYMO break out
2008-11-04 19:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 10 years, maybe more
2008-11-04 19:01:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what does this mean?
2008-11-04 19:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it means...
2008-11-04 19:02:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: See, buy baby buy
2008-11-04 19:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction
2008-11-04 19:02:24 [Message] hiker -> Main Room:
2008-11-04 19:02:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OH, oh
2008-11-04 19:02:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so we in completing A up of minor 4, or we still going to 1017 of minute 4
2008-11-04 19:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've updated that particular count idea - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=3024
2008-11-04 19:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's highs are within range of the irregular flat objective
2008-11-04 19:05:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so forget mco's with wave rule about not taking out minor 2's mco's?
2008-11-04 19:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and remember...we were kind of looking for a rally into today because of the election
2008-11-04 19:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no, not really
2008-11-04 19:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is what it is
2008-11-04 19:05:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we took out minute 2, minor 2, and intermediate 2
2008-11-04 19:05:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and any wave 2 of last 10 years
2008-11-04 19:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem though is trying to figure out this particular sequence of events as it apply to bear market conditions
2008-11-04 19:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is context
2008-11-04 19:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, we also broke records on downside just two weeks ago
2008-11-04 19:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the tide goes in...the tide goes out
2008-11-04 19:07:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wax on.....wax off
2008-11-04 19:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any additional questions or comments before we get started?
2008-11-04 19:07:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: When does the bear market start?
2008-11-04 19:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: start?
2008-11-04 19:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: end?
2008-11-04 19:08:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well....you asked for a question
2008-11-04 19:08:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Ok, start again
2008-11-04 19:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did a bull market start?
2008-11-04 19:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gosh...we have one week of reflex, and we're starting and stopping trends?
2008-11-04 19:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did the downtrend end?
2008-11-04 19:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are the EMA's in bullish configurations?
2008-11-04 19:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has there been enough money coming in over the last week to turn the trend from down to up?
2008-11-04 19:09:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, what we really should identify is when the downtrend resumes...
2008-11-04 19:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crashes are going to highly volatile events...in both directions
2008-11-04 19:09:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NYTV today was below average for most days in 2008, fwiw
2008-11-04 19:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has a trendline been violated?
2008-11-04 19:10:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OK OK,,,,,it's a bear
2008-11-04 19:10:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: still
2008-11-04 19:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...maybe not
2008-11-04 19:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm just asking questions within your context
2008-11-04 19:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many times have you seen the market continue to move higher in spite of usual and customary "overbought" signals?
2008-11-04 19:11:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Has a trendline been violated?
2008-11-04 19:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rare?
2008-11-04 19:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...many of us trade in different time periods
2008-11-04 19:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last week has given many a nice bit of profit from deeply "oversold" levels
2008-11-04 19:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like the lid of a pressure cooker being released in quick fashion
2008-11-04 19:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has there been any NEW money come into the market in the last week?
2008-11-04 19:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when we use the MCO
2008-11-04 19:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as with all oscillator type tools
2008-11-04 19:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having to move in straight line fashion to points of exhaustion are rarely useful in the development of a trend
2008-11-04 19:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's more like a vacuum - a rip tide during stormy conditions
2008-11-04 19:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where traders go so far overboard that an equal and opposite reaction occurs because of being proved wrong in this same judgment
2008-11-04 19:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you probably have noticed during this advance is that there has been very little talk of the fundamentals that broke the back of the longer term trend
2008-11-04 19:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we did hear about it, now, all of a sudden, everything is now OK?
2008-11-04 19:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-11-04 19:16:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dow at its worst today was up 200, the russell was red
2008-11-04 19:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: has that much changed in one weeks time?
2008-11-04 19:16:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: small caps didn't do poop today
2008-11-04 19:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is over extended
2008-11-04 19:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we remember back a week ago
2008-11-04 19:16:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and this rally has zero texture
2008-11-04 19:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what indices were showing a lack of reversal up until last Thursday
2008-11-04 19:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...
2008-11-04 19:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which areas were leading up until Friday?
2008-11-04 19:17:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: smalls
2008-11-04 19:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wasn't it the mid and small caps exploding?
2008-11-04 19:17:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but they led the sell off prior too
2008-11-04 19:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the cream stocks were trailing?
2008-11-04 19:17:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b/c they were more oversold
2008-11-04 19:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now...
2008-11-04 19:17:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: now they more overbought.....lol
2008-11-04 19:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market will always find a way to catch up
2008-11-04 19:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to find balance
2008-11-04 19:17:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it has
2008-11-04 19:17:57 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: SPX - the lower parallel in the current declining price channel since late 2007 is at least 70 pts above
2008-11-04 19:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it has
2008-11-04 19:18:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, one question on the Elliott's for you
2008-11-04 19:18:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: may not be the only, but one now.......lol
2008-11-04 19:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we also rallied some 200 SnP points...it makes one feel that more is being done, doesn't it?
2008-11-04 19:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm always open to any kind of question
2008-11-04 19:19:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: is there anything in the count that would suggest we could be or have completed the A up of minor 4, where we would have a B down now before the C to complete minor 4
2008-11-04 19:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just don't want to dwell on Elliott for now
2008-11-04 19:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely, but it may or may not happen though
2008-11-04 19:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are still in the middle of a great deal of sloshing
2008-11-04 19:19:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, i have more, but don't want to dwell
2008-11-04 19:20:13 [Message] ron -> Main Room: balance.....
2008-11-04 19:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, balance...
2008-11-04 19:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every ying, there's a yang
2008-11-04 19:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every Heckle, there's a Jeckle
2008-11-04 19:20:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: let's look at DP charts....they always shed light in murky world
2008-11-04 19:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-11-04 19:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better yet, let's take a quick look at the combo charts first
2008-11-04 19:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYAD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=1025
2008-11-04 19:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here we see that the NYSE breadth MCO has moved to multi year highs now
2008-11-04 19:25:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, noticed something today that i think has large implications for near term direction, should i mention now, or wait till end of class
2008-11-04 19:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this tells us that the forward motion between the 19 day and 39 day EMA's are rushing forward at breakneck speed
2008-11-04 19:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: chime in at any time
2008-11-04 19:25:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: take a look at tlt - daily and intraday
2008-11-04 19:25:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and its relationship on the daily with spx
2008-11-04 19:26:06 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: tlt afternoon move intraday today was sudden
2008-11-04 19:26:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep, hiker, OUT of the BLUE
2008-11-04 19:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at what time?
2008-11-04 19:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after the pits closed?
2008-11-04 19:26:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 2pm et
2008-11-04 19:26:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right before pits, i think
2008-11-04 19:27:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: market started selling off on it, but then ignored it end of day
2008-11-04 19:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe there was an auction today?
2008-11-04 19:27:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but think thats a sign
2008-11-04 19:27:20 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the 3min TLT blastoff launched at 2pm
2008-11-04 19:27:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: look at 60 min chart and daily
2008-11-04 19:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the auction went OK?
2008-11-04 19:27:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: classic reversal
2008-11-04 19:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the price pattern itself bounced off it's 200 day EMA
2008-11-04 19:28:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i had a friend do an overlay of the tlt and the spx
2008-11-04 19:28:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pretty fascinating
2008-11-04 19:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT&p=D&st=2008-03-01&i=p98128265896&r=9627
2008-11-04 19:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an overlay of today?
2008-11-04 19:28:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: spx daily ontop of tlt daily
2008-11-04 19:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if so...I would be willing to wager that there good response to an auction of some kind
2008-11-04 19:29:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: has quite an inverse relationship of late
2008-11-04 19:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would be good news for both bonds and stocks
2008-11-04 19:29:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not if inverse
2008-11-04 19:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know really...I haven't been following
2008-11-04 19:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll have to look at it later
2008-11-04 19:29:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: only auction today was 4 week auction
2008-11-04 19:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-11-04 19:30:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and it was at 1pm
2008-11-04 19:30:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So dave, you saying if tlt up then stocks up?
2008-11-04 19:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important for all of this to work (the credit problems) that the FED gets participation on this same bailout
2008-11-04 19:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-11-04 19:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: higher TLT means lower interest rates
2008-11-04 19:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lower interest rates are good for equities
2008-11-04 19:30:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: right
2008-11-04 19:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the combo chart
2008-11-04 19:31:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: means people flooding into gov notes and out of stock market?
2008-11-04 19:31:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for safety?
2008-11-04 19:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe, but more than likely there's enough stabilization that the high amount of liquidity that the FED threw out there 2 weeks ago is now starting to take hold
2008-11-04 19:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at gold
2008-11-04 19:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what did it do today?
2008-11-04 19:32:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: up a little
2008-11-04 19:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a little?
2008-11-04 19:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: $36?
2008-11-04 19:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's quite of bit of stabilizing
2008-11-04 19:33:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on par with range of late
2008-11-04 19:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: range is not the focus
2008-11-04 19:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the focus is that gold will only move higher because of excess liquidity
2008-11-04 19:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where all else has been "put to work"
2008-11-04 19:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: following gold in the last 3 weeks would have given everyone an good idea on the direction of the asset classes
2008-11-04 19:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold was down...and so were the others - in spite of the tsunami of acute monetary easing
2008-11-04 19:35:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe TLT jump just some of the Trillions Fed has injected lately finding something to buy
2008-11-04 19:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as this excess was being used in other areas
2008-11-04 19:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...but the timing of the rally coincides with an auction
2008-11-04 19:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think back to the old days
2008-11-04 19:35:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can't an excess in this environment be hoarded? or do excesses always find a home in the stock market
2008-11-04 19:35:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Auction a good place to buy
2008-11-04 19:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where every Tuesday and Wednesday the stock market was on hold until these same auctions were finished - nervously waiting to see if other countries would secure our debt
2008-11-04 19:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave - "money knows what money likes and money likes to make more money"
2008-11-04 19:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will park temporarily
2008-11-04 19:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it will flow to those areas deemed as "under valued"
2008-11-04 19:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the rest finding a home with the hard asset - gold
2008-11-04 19:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the daily TLT chart showed a reversal at the 200 day EMA
2008-11-04 19:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it also shows both of the shorter EMA's right above
2008-11-04 19:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the price action is thereby trapped
2008-11-04 19:37:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the $rut lagged like crazy today, thats the other side of liquidity
2008-11-04 19:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if there's a 5 or 10 year auction tomorrow, and it goes well, that might be enough for money to continue to move into debt
2008-11-04 19:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the RUT lagged because this same liquidity was moving into other areas of perceived under valuation - bonds and gold
2008-11-04 19:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both of which are deemed as "safety"
2008-11-04 19:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's only so much equities can do when the money being put into play is recycled - short covering
2008-11-04 19:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like we all know
2008-11-04 19:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short covering rallies are hard and fast
2008-11-04 19:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and tend to over extend 2008-11-04 19:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, it's a bit more complex than that, but that can wait for another time
2008-11-04 19:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the concept, or context, is what I believe is important here
2008-11-04 19:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the combo's
2008-11-04 19:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if we know that the MCO measures the speed in which the 19 day and 39 day are moving towards or away from each other
2008-11-04 19:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the A/D line itself
2008-11-04 19:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still see that even though this accelerated speed is off the charts
2008-11-04 19:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is still a whole lot of work to be done before a price trend in this same upward direction can even get going
2008-11-04 19:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, this same accelerated force can very much blow out the engine - throw a rod - at any moment
2008-11-04 19:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it shouldn't at all be surprising if we have a sudden, and violent reversal here at any time
2008-11-04 19:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking closer at the NYAD
2008-11-04 19:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we see that even with all of this acceleration, the A/D line itself has only been able to move above it's shorter term "Trend" line
2008-11-04 19:43:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: do wave 4's end as surprisingly as they start?
2008-11-04 19:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are very violent in nature...especially in times of high volatility
2008-11-04 19:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have been talking about this for weeks now
2008-11-04 19:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even last Thursday
2008-11-04 19:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we were looking for 1017
2008-11-04 19:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by, what, Tuesday??
2008-11-04 19:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing we didn't get was a pause on Friday
2008-11-04 19:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we did get it on Monday
2008-11-04 19:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: semantics
2008-11-04 19:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the picture then hasn't changed at all in the bigger picture
2008-11-04 19:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, health wise, we're in a more dangerous situation than before
2008-11-04 19:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like a long distance runner sprinting at the beginning of the race and just now climbing the first hill of the marathon
2008-11-04 19:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one would think, therefore, that he would run out of gas in quick and short fashion
2008-11-04 19:46:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and his legs have stress fractures
2008-11-04 19:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good point
2008-11-04 19:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: he's running sprints, but he just was able to stand not more than a week ago
2008-11-04 19:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like a young animal
2008-11-04 19:47:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can he make it to hill 2?
2008-11-04 19:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where it thinks that everything is as it was before...until the body gives out and the injury becomes worse
2008-11-04 19:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...with this all said
2008-11-04 19:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to new multi year MCO highs is nothing to sneeze at
2008-11-04 19:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's the total context in which all of this is being done that is worth a cautionary note
2008-11-04 19:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much, too fast, never wins the race
2008-11-04 19:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (said the tortoise)
2008-11-04 19:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving down to the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-11-04 19:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here we can see the large post expansion as the accelerated energy shown by the move in the MCO is pushing us in this same direction
2008-11-04 19:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from, mind you, obscene "oversold" levels
2008-11-04 19:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still above the current pattern is our MCSUM Gap resistance area
2008-11-04 19:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the gap where we saw the lowest low reading in the MCO prior to this same reversal
2008-11-04 19:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the point in which all of the willing AND unwilling sellers capitulated in the price pattern
2008-11-04 19:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, it presents formidable resistance to overcome to declare that the "worse is over"
2008-11-04 19:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not before
2008-11-04 19:52:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: have not met a casual investor that doesn't think a nov and dec rally is in the cards
2008-11-04 19:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so although it's been a nice ride higher in the last week
2008-11-04 19:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's certainly not any cause of celebration
2008-11-04 19:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the hangover of the election probably having the trigger to at least take a rest
2008-11-04 19:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many people overseas do you figure bought (or covered) US stocks on the speculation of a BO win?
2008-11-04 19:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that this will be finally behind us?
2008-11-04 19:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and no matter who wins
2008-11-04 19:53:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: A TON
2008-11-04 19:54:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this mornings market action was almost all attributed to Europe
2008-11-04 19:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if either one of these candidates don't take swift and decisive action to pick up the ball of the credit problems, the markets are not going to like that one single bit
2008-11-04 19:55:15 [Message] nailnpali -> Main Room: the danger I think is the hand over period
2008-11-04 19:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like we cut off a leg (or two) without having made an appointment for a check up, no less, rehabilitation
2008-11-04 19:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is going to take a long time to get over folks
2008-11-04 19:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: make no mistake about it
2008-11-04 19:56:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: years
2008-11-04 19:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the technical damage that the market suffered at the beginning of October is not going to go way for a while
2008-11-04 19:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...but months, minimally
2008-11-04 19:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone ever gone camping or been in company of a bear?
2008-11-04 19:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're smart animals
2008-11-04 19:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (and they smell too)
2008-11-04 19:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYUD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p06063388509&a=118792131&r=2188
2008-11-04 19:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now here the NYSE volume MCO is in sync with its breadth cousin
2008-11-04 19:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good thing
2008-11-04 19:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and allows the door to be opened that what might be months of mending, might be quicker to recover
2008-11-04 19:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's still too darn early to make any kind of reasonable expectation in this area
2008-11-04 19:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially with a new government being elected
2008-11-04 19:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technically, in both cases, we have yet to see any kind of snapback to the MCO zero line
2008-11-04 20:00:13 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ok, you brought up bears...I met some kids on the trail last week that were the only campers in the Teton high country called Alaska Basin ...they had a grizzly smelling their tent all night, since the bear could not get to their food bag hanging in the trees..when I saw them hiking back to the trail head...all they could say, was they were grateful to be alive
2008-11-04 20:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we see this happen, and we know that we can only go so far before the mechanics of the internals exhaust, this same snapback will need to be measured as to its health in this bigger overall picture
2008-11-04 20:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...I had the same thing (kind of) happen to me
2008-11-04 20:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are funny
2008-11-04 20:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially city folk
2008-11-04 20:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when they see any animal in the wild
2008-11-04 20:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they think it's fake...or that some human can control their actions like see in the movies
2008-11-04 20:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anyone has ever camped, you will know that you don't see "deer lockers"
2008-11-04 20:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bears are very smart
2008-11-04 20:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: smarter than a bull
2008-11-04 20:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the NYUD line...note that like the breadth side, the 19 day EMA is only now starting to curl higher
2008-11-04 20:03:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: in college, I slept on a tarp outside a primitive hot springs and was awakened with a black bear breathing in my face...I scared him silly with my adrenaline rush and yelling..hehe
2008-11-04 20:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-11-04 20:04:04 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: saw something in print that a bear is faster than a race horse from a starting sprint
2008-11-04 20:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, they are very fast
2008-11-04 20:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: most four legged animals are
2008-11-04 20:04:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I stumbled on one a few weeks ago when he stood up from log rolling ...and he disappeared in a flash
2008-11-04 20:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: twice the push forward of an animal with two legs
2008-11-04 20:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the one thing you don't want to do is to meet a cub
2008-11-04 20:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the thought
2008-11-04 20:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of how much energy was needed in recent days by the MCO just to turn the 19 day higher
2008-11-04 20:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why when we were talking about bull divergence last week
2008-11-04 20:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that it only showed us that the rate of money leaving the market was slowing enough to see a turn, and not that it was something in which a platform had been built from where a price structure could have the stability of a rally
2008-11-04 20:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: context - in both directions - is so important
2008-11-04 20:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on
2008-11-04 20:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NAAD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p20967548256&a=118792179&r=7288
2008-11-04 20:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another very high reading in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-11-04 20:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but looking at the A/D line itself, we have only moved back to just below the 19 day EMA
2008-11-04 20:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and only now is this same 19 day EMA starting to slow its rate of descent
2008-11-04 20:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is how "oversold" we were
2008-11-04 20:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so much so, that even with multi year high readings in the MCO, this was only able to show the A/D line come back to some sort of TREND balance...and only on a short term basis
2008-11-04 20:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not intermediate term
2008-11-04 20:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, longer term
2008-11-04 20:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so in this area of short, intermediate, and longer term, there is so much work to do that the market is going to have to put in all nighters just to catch up
2008-11-04 20:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does it disturb anyone that the secondary stocks are only now reaching this balance and not leading the primaries as to suggest that liquidity levels are ample?
2008-11-04 20:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then if we move to the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-11-04 20:11:35 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: probably waiting for Cisco earnings tomorrow
2008-11-04 20:11:36 [Message] lew -> Main Room: absolutely
2008-11-04 20:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're not even close to even testing this same area of capitulation that got us into this technical mess to begin with
2008-11-04 20:12:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: u-g-l-y
2008-11-04 20:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we're so "overbought", one wonders are we due for a simple pause, or have we created another vacuum point??
2008-11-04 20:12:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: depends on the emotion
2008-11-04 20:13:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it turns quickly, they every action gets an equal and opposite reaction, now back down
2008-11-04 20:15:38 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: QQQQ 33.49 is the bullish pivot breakout price using the DeMark method...and it simple to see its relevance if you plot the horizontal on a 7 year weekly chart
2008-11-04 20:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and every action will be less than the one before
2008-11-04 20:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking of the bathtub analogy
2008-11-04 20:16:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: got it
2008-11-04 20:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking your arm and sloshing the water back and forth
2008-11-04 20:16:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: enough less reactions to remain volatile for the foreseeable future
2008-11-04 20:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every succeeding move will be less and less until calm again (once the source of the energy, your arm, is removed)
2008-11-04 20:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NAUD - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p13223202764&a=118792169&r=9468
2008-11-04 20:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pretty much the same story as that of the breadth side
2008-11-04 20:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, the one thing the October wash out gave is consistency
2008-11-04 20:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the entire market was a deeply "oversold" levels
2008-11-04 20:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing was able to hide from the onslaught
2008-11-04 20:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the reaction, should be very much the same - consistent
2008-11-04 20:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NAAD and NAUD are basically identical
2008-11-04 20:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NYAD and the NYUD are as well
2008-11-04 20:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with both markets telling individual stories
2008-11-04 20:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and both markets still yet to challenge what's the most important thing now...the MCSUM gap resistance areas dictating that this same bearish trend is complete
2008-11-04 20:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see...reading the MCO and MCSUM, which is measuring money flow of opinion, are very different animals either below or above the zero line
2008-11-04 20:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the MCSUM as deeply "oversold" as it did get, longer term, this is usually a very good thing
2008-11-04 20:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we build structure, test, retest, and become more "complacent", the bear isn't over
2008-11-04 20:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's only playing with you
2008-11-04 20:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's finding ways to ambush you when you least likely to notice
2008-11-04 20:22:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: breathing on your face
2008-11-04 20:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bulls are in your face
2008-11-04 20:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know when it's charging
2008-11-04 20:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it doesn't hunt
2008-11-04 20:23:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just referring to the story above
2008-11-04 20:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bear does hunt, stalk, it's prey
2008-11-04 20:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the AMAD line to complete the picture
2008-11-04 20:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$AMAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p93384628181&a=118792218&r=7447
2008-11-04 20:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, technically speaking, until the A/D line gets above the 200 day EMA, you are in the bears compound
2008-11-04 20:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after this is over, many will appreciate the effort it takes to break out of this same compound
2008-11-04 20:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully, have enough limbs left to move forward
2008-11-04 20:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYMO - simple form - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p85139122919&a=14317472&r=5971
2008-11-04 20:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NAMO - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&st=2008-01-01&i=p93017193079&a=14317478&r=5009
2008-11-04 20:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both are scraping the ceiling here
2008-11-04 20:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just a matter of time
2008-11-04 20:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, it's better to look for an entry for a short than it would be to try to catch a train that left the station with the follow through of last week
2008-11-04 20:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how we respond with this MCO zero line rest, and whether or not the bulls can remain above the zero line after this same technical expectation, now that will help in putting things together so that we can start to recognize this new rhythm that lies underneath all of this turbulence
2008-11-04 20:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...we're still trying to see what we're dealing with as far as both time, price, and personality
2008-11-04 20:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: true...by simple charting techniques, we still have two lower price objectives still yet to be met
2008-11-04 20:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in the meantime, chart wise, we're just back to the price levels that provided initial resistance after the depths of the collapse
2008-11-04 20:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price resistance..."overbought"...seems like a rest is in order
2008-11-04 20:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: buy the news...sell the fact?
2008-11-04 20:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably
2008-11-04 20:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see if there's anything of interest in DP
2008-11-04 20:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the combo charts pretty much tell the real story here, so we'll move on to the volume oscillators
2008-11-04 20:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are now climactic
2008-11-04 20:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should see a price reversal in the next two trading days
2008-11-04 20:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are now "overbought"
2008-11-04 20:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are a little mixed, but seem to be getting off the floor now
2008-11-04 20:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I would be looking for here
2008-11-04 20:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is if we start to pull back, attempt to rally, let's say, on Thursday
2008-11-04 20:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that should get the VTO's to their zero lines where one side can take charge since there would be balance
2008-11-04 20:34:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looking like the top in price is in now?
2008-11-04 20:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would provide an excellent entry point to short
2008-11-04 20:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe Dave
2008-11-04 20:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the cash close objective was 1017
2008-11-04 20:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a pullback tomorrow to take a breather
2008-11-04 20:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then move to this level on Thursday
2008-11-04 20:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would create divergences along several fronts
2008-11-04 20:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bingo
2008-11-04 20:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the technical objective of snapping back to the MCO zero lines
2008-11-04 20:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bounce
2008-11-04 20:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a test
2008-11-04 20:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we'll see what we got
2008-11-04 20:35:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: mco zero line is far away
2008-11-04 20:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott wise...IF this is the end of an irregular flat
2008-11-04 20:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where irregular flats are the weakest of all Elliott patterns against the direction of the major trend
2008-11-04 20:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then the move lower could...and I say could...challenge and break the 848 level on the S&P
2008-11-04 20:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we would be on our way to this next objective having left a bull trap behind
2008-11-04 20:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: getting the heaviness of the shorts covered and opinions changed
2008-11-04 20:37:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would this minute 5, if thats the count, start out with a wipe out? or will it be slow to start and pick up speed along the way
2008-11-04 20:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just a theory
2008-11-04 20:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 5th waves are panic waves
2008-11-04 20:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get my definition and see what I say about them
2008-11-04 20:38:41 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: Jea Yu at www.undergroundtrader said in his weekly update he expects the rug to be pulled from bulls in late Nov, fwiw
2008-11-04 20:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: exchange bull for bear, up for down, buy for sell - "5th waves are the most ''euphoric'' of the entire wave structures as both technicians and fundamentalists all come to the conclusion that the worse is behind us. This is where the media joins the party as well, and thereby causes the ''buy with both hands'' mass psychology that comes with this pattern structure. Because of this, the idea that ''this time it's different'', and that the market can go ''nowhere but up'', becomes the overall mind set and people buy just about anything just to say that they participated. Technically, the internals diverge with the "flag" extremes seen during wave 3 until all of the willing AND unwilling buyers come into the market at which time the price pattern structure terminates."
2008-11-04 20:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it's not the absolute correct context, but I'm sure you get the picture
2008-11-04 20:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many are thinking the worse is behind us now
2008-11-04 20:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it isn't
2008-11-04 20:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's just too many variables out there still yet to be corralled right now
2008-11-04 20:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway....a 5th wave would be something like we saw with a limit down a week or so ago
2008-11-04 20:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or right before the market moved 1000 points higher
2008-11-04 20:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a purge
2008-11-04 20:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a cleansing
2008-11-04 20:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: getting out at any price
2008-11-04 20:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the degree of selling is no where near what we saw in wave 3
2008-11-04 20:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the VIX will diverge, but the TRIN's would make new highs (or lows)
2008-11-04 20:42:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and thats with two more possible wave 5's to come
2008-11-04 20:42:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: jeez
2008-11-04 20:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but first, we have to stop going higher
2008-11-04 20:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and of different, and higher, degrees of trend
2008-11-04 20:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the larger the degree, the more all encompassing it is
2008-11-04 20:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like
2008-11-04 20:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dropping stone in the water and watching the waves move out from the center
2008-11-04 20:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: depending on the size of the stone, there are many more consequences
2008-11-04 20:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a pebble...within a small area
2008-11-04 20:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a meteor...a whole planet
2008-11-04 20:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: context
2008-11-04 20:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but let me stress again
2008-11-04 20:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: watch what money does...and keep things like Elliott in your back pocket
2008-11-04 20:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we at least know what we should be looking for to confirm such a mass psychology
2008-11-04 20:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but first we have to see money reacting in advance of this same persumed outcome
2008-11-04 20:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .50
2008-11-04 20:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.03
2008-11-04 20:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a bit on the "oversold" side
2008-11-04 20:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what would be nice in this pause, divergence, and then zero line test scenario
2008-11-04 20:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would be to see that Open 10 get to around neutral, or above, during this same sequence
2008-11-04 20:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remembering back to right before the crash, how many days was it that the Open 10 was showing "overbought" readings in direct contradiction to prices falling apart?
2008-11-04 20:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a week?
2008-11-04 20:47:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you speak of a possible decline tomorrow and up Thursday, would you expect large point movements?
2008-11-04 20:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...yesterday was the first daily close I can remember in a long time that was close to unchanged
2008-11-04 20:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the sloshing still continues
2008-11-04 20:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volatility is still very high, yes
2008-11-04 20:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but - and I know I keep saying this - keep it simple if you're going to day trade this
2008-11-04 20:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a simple use of a well timed EMA on an intraday chart will keep you honest in these kind of conditions
2008-11-04 20:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .37
2008-11-04 20:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.05
2008-11-04 20:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .47
2008-11-04 20:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.07
2008-11-04 20:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, still, with all of this rally of late
2008-11-04 20:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we remain "oversold"
2008-11-04 20:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if we had a bullish configuration on the A/D lines, this would be pretty easy
2008-11-04 20:51:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, maybe a little more rally.....since still on oversold side?
2008-11-04 20:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe a lot of chop here
2008-11-04 20:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:attempt to rally, lose it during the day
2008-11-04 20:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: try to recover
2008-11-04 20:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as if the runner was trying to "catch its breath"
2008-11-04 20:52:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Like that scenario
2008-11-04 20:52:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: futs starting to head lower
2008-11-04 20:52:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: as soon as pennsylvania was called for obama
2008-11-04 20:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: simple TA suggests that a pause is indicated
2008-11-04 20:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what this pause turns into, and how fast it does so, needs to be monitored
2008-11-04 20:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-11-04 20:53:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fib, anything preventing an out and out smash down here?
2008-11-04 20:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like a rug being pulled out from under the feet of the runner?
2008-11-04 20:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or maybe a rock to trip it?
2008-11-04 20:54:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like if the dems get 60% or more of senate and obama wins big, with no checks and balances..............yes to all your questions
2008-11-04 20:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would treat these conditions like any other trade
2008-11-04 20:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let market breadth lead the way - it is the ultimate arbitrator in these things
2008-11-04 20:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe another small point change might do it
2008-11-04 20:55:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, we have had 900 pt up days and 700 pt down days
2008-11-04 20:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are many news related things happening right now
2008-11-04 20:55:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats why i ask
2008-11-04 20:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like trying to trade just before and just after a FED announcement
2008-11-04 20:56:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Friday is non farm payrolls
2008-11-04 20:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we should continue to get high triple digit numbers until the sloshing effect in the bathtub subsides
2008-11-04 20:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-04 20:56:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that could get ugly
2008-11-04 20:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and productivity is Thursday
2008-11-04 20:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: jobs is a rear view mirror
2008-11-04 20:56:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if Thursday we rally
2008-11-04 20:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not to say that it can't, or won't be used as an excuse however
2008-11-04 20:56:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: then they rallying the productivity
2008-11-04 20:56:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ah
2008-11-04 20:56:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right
2008-11-04 20:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...let's look for a pause
2008-11-04 20:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see how much air is taken out
2008-11-04 20:57:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, if tomorrow is a real bad down day
2008-11-04 20:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully by Thursday we'll have an idea on how the rest of the month will trade
2008-11-04 20:57:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what does that say about the chance for a rally on thurs
2008-11-04 20:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what...be down 500 and then rally 300?
2008-11-04 20:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does it matter?
2008-11-04 20:58:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, just thinking about the 1017
2008-11-04 20:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's only a target...it's not the holy grail
2008-11-04 20:58:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so, down 500 up 600 would not be to my liking
2008-11-04 20:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are within striking distance today of the same target
2008-11-04 20:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trade what you see...
2008-11-04 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the debris left behind at the end of the day
2008-11-04 20:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-11-04 20:59:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks dave
2008-11-04 20:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-11-04 21:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2008-11-04 21:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



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