All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,885
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-03 16:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-03 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-03 16:01:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very Well, thx
2011-11-03 16:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 2 day vacation, ready to roll
2011-11-03 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking out island real estate?
2011-11-03 16:02:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not interested in trading the down moves, LOL
2011-11-03 16:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-11-03 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-03 16:03:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wild night in futures last night
2011-11-03 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: been wild for several weeks now
2011-11-03 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wake up at 3 Eastern and see it one way
2011-11-03 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then get up at 7 eastern to see that it's the opposite!
2011-11-03 16:04:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: i saw it at 3:30-had to rub my eyes at 9:00
2011-11-03 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, for me, 3 eastern is midnight...I get up at 4 in the morning each day
2011-11-03 16:04:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-11-03 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the disadvantages of living on the left coast
2011-11-03 16:05:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: like trading from England-get to sleep in
2011-11-03 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we get all the live stuff you have to wait for 3 hours earlier!
2011-11-03 16:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I'm able to get to bed that much earlier
2011-11-03 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it all works out in the end
2011-11-03 16:05:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-03 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-11-03 16:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we talked about in passing on Tuesday
2011-11-03 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was the idea that we may have seen a classic McClellan "Buy Spike" in progress
2011-11-03 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a Buy Spike, for those who don't know
2011-11-03 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was something that Kennedy Gammage made famous back in the early 1970's
2011-11-03 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this spike has several guidelines that it follows
2011-11-03 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first of which we usually see a divergent low in the MCO
2011-11-03 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second is that we see a swift "breadth thrust" higher in the MCO
2011-11-03 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it must stay fairly high for usually a 2 week period of time
2011-11-03 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fairly high, in this instance, is usually anything above the +25 level
2011-11-03 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then shows a sharp drop out of a complex pattern to the downside
2011-11-03 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually finds its stopping point at around the -25 level
2011-11-03 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we had everything on the check list here on Tuesday
2011-11-03 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we needed then was for a just as sharp reversal higher
2011-11-03 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first back above the MCO zero line the next day
2011-11-03 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a continuation to the upside the following day
2011-11-03 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking then at the NYSE CO breadth MCO today
2011-11-03 16:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now met all the criteria of a classic buy spike
2011-11-03 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this spike has also taken place just where we were looking for formidable MCSUM pattern resistance - at the +500 level
2011-11-03 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's follow through has now pushed the MCSUM above this important +500 level
2011-11-03 16:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the last area needing to move above is the April highs
2011-11-03 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there we would then be called "in the clear"
2011-11-03 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-11-03 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upcoming challenge of the 2011 highs will likely be a successful one in breaking to new price highs for the year
2011-11-03 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have now extended the likelihood of this current advancing price structure to continue into the beginning of next year
2011-11-03 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this February
2011-11-03 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're able to take out the highs seen at the +750 level
2011-11-03 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then extend the current advance that much longer...tentatively to around the middle part of spring
2011-11-03 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, woman's apparel has been showing bullish fashion looks
2011-11-03 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may ask
2011-11-03 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what can we expect from a "Buy Spike"?
2011-11-03 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, for one thing, it will extend our current upward progress by another 3-4 weeks on average
2011-11-03 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the spike itself instructs us that there now fresh buying coming even after 4 weeks of upward progress
2011-11-03 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far and high we go will then greatly depend on the consistency to which this same degree of money flow is received by the market in general
2011-11-03 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we use the 16-18 month offset that gold provides as a leading indication
2011-11-03 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at a chart of gold
2011-11-03 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are currently in the area of July 2010 lows
2011-11-03 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see what happened after that
2011-11-03 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it shows a topping pattern that would equate to the February 2012 time period
2011-11-03 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a higher high about a month or two later before consolidating for 2 months or so
2011-11-03 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for this then
2011-11-03 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a perfect technical world
2011-11-03 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we will rally to the all time highs in the SPX and Dow
2011-11-03 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then consolidate at those levels in the spring
2011-11-03 16:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before moving to new price highs as indicated by the gold blueprint
2011-11-03 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's interesting about this correlation
2011-11-03 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if you take a "birds eye" view of gold prior to the July 2010 lows
2011-11-03 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern leading into this low looks pretty much like the pattern that we saw during the first half of the year
2011-11-03 16:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even before that into the beginning of 2010
2011-11-03 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's see how the rest of the charts look
2011-11-03 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO is showing just a simple snapback to its zero line
2011-11-03 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after hesitating earlier in the week
2011-11-03 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM is once again moving higher with our continuing expectation for a move to the +750 level
2011-11-03 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have our major horizontal resistance area
2011-11-03 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-11-03 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we've been able to bounce at or near the zero line
2011-11-03 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-11-03 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM has now cleared its way above its horizontal resistance area
2011-11-03 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this market is "in the clear" to trend higher
2011-11-03 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still looking at the MCSUM
2011-11-03 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the divergent highs top came in the February period
2011-11-03 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be that divergence that will need to be taken out in order for the price pattern to move to new recovery highs
2011-11-03 16:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first order of business though
2011-11-03 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to take out the +250 level
2011-11-03 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we do that
2011-11-03 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll gain good confidence that this breakout can even take place during this current advance
2011-11-03 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is showing a classic "oversold" spike to its pattern
2011-11-03 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be important for this MCO to take out its reaction highs of a week OK to reinforce the direction of the current advance
2011-11-03 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would then instruct us that the two tops from last spring will not only be challenged during this sequence, but they will likely be taken out as well
2011-11-03 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is showing another classic "buy spike"
2011-11-03 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this new found power has now pushed the SPX breadth MCSUM above the +750 resistance level
2011-11-03 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next target will be the +1000 level where we see that we have another important point in the MCSUM pattern from the February period
2011-11-03 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...these February tops in the MCSUM started the larger consolidation price pattern that continued into the end of July
2011-11-03 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since these are the internal tops of the trend of money
2011-11-03 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it reasonable to extend this to the price pattern itself and its tops as well
2011-11-03 16:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: break above the February highs internally
2011-11-03 16:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the external will likely follow
2011-11-03 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move in one direction or the other unless money is leading the way
2011-11-03 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that includes breakouts and breakdowns
2011-11-03 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM has now moved slightly above its November and February tops seen on the yearly chart
2011-11-03 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be good news for the bulls as this would indicate that the price highs of the 2011 will likely be taken out on this current advance
2011-11-03 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is also showing this same kind of trend strength currently
2011-11-03 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the larger patten doesn't have the same confidence that the OEX pattern does
2011-11-03 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since all 30 of the Dow stocks are in the OEX
2011-11-03 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's an good implication that it will move to new yearly highs on this current advance
2011-11-03 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs as well with the MID breadth MCSUM
2011-11-03 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking again at the price pattern here
2011-11-03 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2011-11-03 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback now complete both on the previous horizontal pattern, as well as, a snapback towards what was the declining trend line that was controlling the pattern
2011-11-03 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs as well with the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-11-03 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're also moving in and around some significant horizontal resistance here as well
2011-11-03 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM gives a great picture of this new found "thrust" we have here
2011-11-03 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the robust nature of the gap expansion from Tuesday's consolidation
2011-11-03 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is really good news for the bulls
2011-11-03 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because now we no longer have to worry about this being a bear market rally since we have moved above the +250 level
2011-11-03 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we need to do now is to move above the +500 level and we'll then be able to move out of the sideways consolidation level that's controlled the price pattern for most of the year
2011-11-03 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-03 16:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market continues to impress
2011-11-03 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the anticipation of a buy spike here
2011-11-03 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our attention now turns to the MCSUM's
2011-11-03 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we already know that the short term trend remains strong
2011-11-03 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have to see how far we're going to go here on this new fuel source
2011-11-03 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all dependent on how high, and how strong, the various breadth MCSUM's move from this juncture
2011-11-03 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as each challenge is meet
2011-11-03 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the amplitude we'll see with prices
2011-11-03 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2011-11-03 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the MCSUM travels from its zero line
2011-11-03 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it is for prices to move in this same direction
2011-11-03 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the average stock will be able to gain (or lose) more with less money
2011-11-03 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..the concept is
2011-11-03 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the space shuttle goes from its launching pad
2011-11-03 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less and less fuel is needed to keep its momentum moving in this same direction
2011-11-03 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same theory works here as well
2011-11-03 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the sector breadth charts today to see where the leadership is
2011-11-03 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the XLY breadth MCSUM moved to challenge its overhead horizontal resistance
2011-11-03 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back to the +750 level
2011-11-03 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is curling higher again
2011-11-03 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this sector is able to take out the highs of last week
2011-11-03 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then clear the price pattern to move to new yearly highs
2011-11-03 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, would be all time highs
2011-11-03 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's one area that merits our watching
2011-11-03 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if this sector is moving to all time highs
2011-11-03 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of money is thinking that people are going to go out and buy the kinds of things that can last for many years
2011-11-03 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: washers, dryers
2011-11-03 16:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stoves, furniture
2011-11-03 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cars and trucks
2011-11-03 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way that's likely to happen
2011-11-03 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there's going to be new confidence...and maybe...job creation
2011-11-03 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far this week
2011-11-03 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the job's numbers have been "surprising the street"
2011-11-03 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how the big number does when it comes out tomorrow
2011-11-03 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP data is looking a bit sluggish here
2011-11-03 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with lots of resistance both price wise and MCSUM wise
2011-11-03 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that with Tuesday's spike
2011-11-03 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO moved to a slightly lower low
2011-11-03 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll need to see the short term declining tops line to be violated to the upside first before we put on any new positions there
2011-11-03 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rated a hold for now
2011-11-03 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the XLE
2011-11-03 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be the most exciting sector for the short term
2011-11-03 16:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as going back to gold's time offset
2011-11-03 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually leads commodities by about 4 months
2011-11-03 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look back on gold 4 months ago
2011-11-03 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was the approximate starting point from where it melted up from the $1500 level to the top at $1900
2011-11-03 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-03 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now cleared any intermediate resistance levels we have to work with
2011-11-03 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with only the longer term topping action at the left end of the chart still yet to be challenged
2011-11-03 16:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector looks like the best buy so far
2011-11-03 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we come to the XLF data
2011-11-03 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're once again in a great position to rally
2011-11-03 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slight hesitation just above the +500 level
2011-11-03 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've now been able to extend the pattern to the upside
2011-11-03 17:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: potential wise
2011-11-03 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the best of the rest since no one wants to touch financials
2011-11-03 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could be a good play for the next several months as it should begin to play catch up once clarity is known
2011-11-03 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could come as soon as tomorrows G-20/Greece vote (your pick)
2011-11-03 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM is also moving in and around the +750 level
2011-11-03 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2011-11-03 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once this clarity is known here
2011-11-03 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with much of the market already above the +500 MCSUM level
2011-11-03 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once things are sorted
2011-11-03 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at a pretty good rip to the upside since we're working with such high numbers on the MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the XLI breadth MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...right at the +750 level
2011-11-03 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are powerful levels of extremes here
2011-11-03 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we continue to move even higher
2011-11-03 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things will tend to broaden out exponentially
2011-11-03 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2011-11-03 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM is also moving above the +750 level now
2011-11-03 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK too!
2011-11-03 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the consumer staples
2011-11-03 17:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the utilities (XLU) breadth MCO also made a slightly lower low on Tuesday
2011-11-03 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's MCSUM is finding good support here at the +1000 level
2011-11-03 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs here is at the 39 level
2011-11-03 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now at 35.14
2011-11-03 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-03 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone have a match?
2011-11-03 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if we get a strike here
2011-11-03 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the potential here could be staggering
2011-11-03 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-11-03 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we top out here by some chance
2011-11-03 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a month or so before the bears will be able to develop any trend to the downside
2011-11-03 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we continue higher
2011-11-03 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do expect that we're likely to have quick and sharper pull backs the higher we go
2011-11-03 17:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the nature of the beast
2011-11-03 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move on to the volume McClellan's
2011-11-03 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume also has a spike low in place
2011-11-03 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE volume MCSUM has now moved above the +500 level joining its breadth cousin
2011-11-03 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we always like to say
2011-11-03 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we either want to see the trend of volume moving ahead or at least keeping up with breadth in order for a trend to be valid
2011-11-03 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO data is showing this synchronicity very nicely
2011-11-03 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same goes with the NYSE composite volume MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2011-11-03 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not seeing any internal divergence here
2011-11-03 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would then suggest that the path of least resistance, in this case, remains up until PROVEN otherwise
2011-11-03 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're seeing some "secondary" weakness at this stage
2011-11-03 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then directs us that we're likely to see a better bang for our trading buck if we keep with the NYSE group of stocks
2011-11-03 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other hand
2011-11-03 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding near term support at the +500 level does suggest that money is waiting to invest in these same lower caliber issues until a problem is sorted out
2011-11-03 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since you don't get much for waiting around when you purchase these issues (like dividends), money will tend to find other areas of investment that do give a return while you wait
2011-11-03 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO continues to be the weakest link here
2011-11-03 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has only now snapped back up to its zero line
2011-11-03 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here for these basket of stocks is to move above the February highs on the NDX volume MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which looks to be at around the +900 level
2011-11-03 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the third hand
2011-11-03 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding support at the +750 level isn't such a bad thing either
2011-11-03 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do see this index start to flex some muscle here
2011-11-03 17:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would add something to the bullish side that we'll likely be in a strong uptrend for a period of months and not weeks
2011-11-03 17:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really have to admire the strength we're seeing here
2011-11-03 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the angles of ascent and the individual postings of the MCSUM's
2011-11-03 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all says that the bulls have better control of things than what prices are indicating
2011-11-03 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how, like its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO also found spike support at the -25 level
2011-11-03 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now pushed the SPX volume MCSUM to higher highs
2011-11-03 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM is also within range of moving to new 52 week highs as is the breadth side of things
2011-11-03 17:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they do this jointly
2011-11-03 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be little doubt as to whether or not we're likely to see higher price highs later this year
2011-11-03 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are really amazing here
2011-11-03 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the bears could do is slow the rate of ascent in many of the MCSUM's
2011-11-03 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they couldn't stop the momentum
2011-11-03 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're coming up to probably the most significant areas of MCSUM resistance in history
2011-11-03 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there doesn't seem to be any decay in the forward motion
2011-11-03 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like needing the best speed you can get to break through a wall with a battering ram
2011-11-03 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if successful
2011-11-03 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at something rather extraordinary
2011-11-03 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small little snapback in the MID volume MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just happens to be the +500 level
2011-11-03 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bringing up the rear is the SML volume MCSUM
2011-11-03 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is just about to move above its divergent highs
2011-11-03 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM now has a reading of +580
2011-11-03 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-03 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2011-11-03 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: homework this weekend remains the same
2011-11-03 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking for advancing price patterns that are leading to the upside
2011-11-03 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume Oscillators
2011-11-03 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and STVO's
2011-11-03 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are both neutral
2011-11-03 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control both on a near term and on a short term basis
2011-11-03 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of 1-2 weeks
2011-11-03 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's remain frothy
2011-11-03 17:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but continue to suggest a strong uptrend in progress
2011-11-03 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .62
2011-11-03 17:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2011-11-03 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2011-11-03 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .82
2011-11-03 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2011-11-03 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just shy of being minimally "oversold"
2011-11-03 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .76
2011-11-03 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2011-11-03 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-03 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have all the control right now
2011-11-03 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears might be able to set off a roadside bomb from time to time
2011-11-03 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they then go scampering back into their caves
2011-11-03 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether tomorrow will be the trigger or something next week
2011-11-03 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line is that the odds of our moving to challenge this years highs is fairly solid
2011-11-03 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're getting more and more information that these same highs will be taken out
2011-11-03 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that this current advancing price structure is likely to last into February of next year
2011-11-03 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that...there's nothing new to talk about
2011-11-03 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions, comments, or insights out there???
2011-11-03 17:34:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you, is all I can say
2011-11-03 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did I do?
2011-11-03 17:34:58 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Brought light
2011-11-03 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's exciting isn't it?
2011-11-03 17:35:15 [Message] tracca -> Chat: definitely
2011-11-03 17:35:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: let's get some fast pony's next week
2011-11-03 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you discover something and it tends to be consistent
2011-11-03 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those of your friends who may worry about what's going on in Europe won't help things here
2011-11-03 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to take you back to August 12, 1982
2011-11-03 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know why this date is important in stock market history?
2011-11-03 17:36:51 [Message] tracca -> Chat: bottom?
2011-11-03 17:36:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: start of the bull
2011-11-03 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it was the bottom of the 1980's bull market
2011-11-03 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you know what news event took place on that very day?
2011-11-03 17:37:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Mexican debt crisis?
2011-11-03 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got it
2011-11-03 17:37:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I was trading - unfair edge, LOL
2011-11-03 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mexico defaulted on some 80 billion dollars of foreign debt which caused all of Latin America to collapse
2011-11-03 17:38:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great merchandising, though, eh? some things never change
2011-11-03 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I've been trying to point out recently over at TT
2011-11-03 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the play is always the same...only the players change over time
2011-11-03 17:38:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2011-11-03 17:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great bull runs never start on good news
2011-11-03 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they start when there is nothing by despair and angst
2011-11-03 17:39:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so, you were in the bear den? LOL (at TT)
2011-11-03 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't help myself in trying to be helpful
2011-11-03 17:40:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we need that short fuel, behave! LOL
2011-11-03 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-11-03 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's plenty to go around, thank you very much
2011-11-03 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey
2011-11-03 17:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this goes away
2011-11-03 17:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have the President's subpoena to work with
2011-11-03 17:41:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ?
2011-11-03 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't hear?
2011-11-03 17:41:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-11-03 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the President has been presented a subpoena for the records on his involvement with Solyndra
2011-11-03 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of several "green energy" businesses that took federal money and went BK
2011-11-03 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now up to 4 firms that I've heard of
2011-11-03 17:43:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: solar is such a scam at this point
2011-11-03 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems that green energy doesn't make any money
2011-11-03 17:44:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-11-03 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-03 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a strong bull market
2011-11-03 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will always be something out there to keep the majority from participating
2011-11-03 17:44:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my geothermal is smooth - but we don't have a proper electric grid to support mass use
2011-11-03 17:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine how the average bear will feel like if we move to new highs this year?
2011-11-03 17:45:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea...
2011-11-03 17:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many things can you throw at the market and STILL it moves higher?
2011-11-03 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh, and fundamentally
2011-11-03 17:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to guess what the current SPX P/E ratio is?
2011-11-03 17:46:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was being honest earlier, I have no interest in the quick down moves-too much risk there
2011-11-03 17:46:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 11-13?
2011-11-03 17:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2011-11-03 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: historically in bottoming territory
2011-11-03 17:46:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: old school low
2011-11-03 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ridiculous
2011-11-03 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-03 17:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't want to stand in the way of a bull move when you have both fundamentals and technical condtions leading the way
2011-11-03 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2011-11-03 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many are going to be disappointed with the election outcome next year
2011-11-03 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another time and place
2011-11-03 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-03 17:48:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2011-11-03 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just go out and make some big bucks...and tell you friends
2011-11-03 17:49:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do
2011-11-03 17:49:28 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks loads
2011-11-03 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: least your close friends...I guess you wouldn't give too much of your secrets away
2011-11-03 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always fun, and always my pleasure
2011-11-03 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-11-03 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-11-03 17:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-11-03 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-11-03 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch