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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-29 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-29 16:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-29 16:02:07 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: good; you?
2012-11-29 16:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting some stormy weather here...but otherwise, doing fine!
2012-11-29 16:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-29 16:03:41 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yes - can there be (from a daily time frame) a "wave of recognition" (north) before the McSum's get above 0?
2012-11-29 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about it...
2012-11-29 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not
2012-11-29 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's the path of least resistance
2012-11-29 16:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth would have to already moved to higher highs leading price to this same recognition point
2012-11-29 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if price leads, then it could a recognition of 3 of (5)
2012-11-29 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not 3 of (3)
2012-11-29 16:05:11 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: thanks
2012-11-29 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which I think was the crux of the question
2012-11-29 16:05:20 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yup
2012-11-29 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-11-29 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wave 3's have the best in both breadth and volume within one 5 wave price structure
2012-11-29 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order for it to be 3 of (3)
2012-11-29 16:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's would have already moved to new highs
2012-11-29 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which allows this "recognition" of the trend
2012-11-29 16:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is diverging
2012-11-29 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are gaping
2012-11-29 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably 3 of (5)
2012-11-29 16:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes the best sense, don't you think?
2012-11-29 16:07:19 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yes  thanks
2012-11-29 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  np
2012-11-29 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone else?
2012-11-29 16:07:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: pcln had a small bump off yesterdays bottom...40 bucks, LOL
2012-11-29 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-29 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...small
2012-11-29 16:08:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, we both acknowledged it was "a bit " bullish :0
2012-11-29 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you cleared 660 today
2012-11-29 16:08:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-11-29 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the upside is for, what was it? 800?
2012-11-29 16:09:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: roughly
2012-11-29 16:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about some 750 calls?
2012-11-29 16:09:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so far, so good
2012-11-29 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be something for my spec account
2012-11-29 16:09:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2012-11-29 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what the prices is for the April strike by any chance?
2012-11-29 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a number in mind
2012-11-29 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything above it and I'm not interested
2012-11-29 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but $90 out of the money...might be a deal
2012-11-29 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone enjoy yesterday's fake out?
2012-11-29 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-11-29 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2012-11-29 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's nice
2012-11-29 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2012-11-29 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was not expected
2012-11-29 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can take out the mid September highs
2012-11-29 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would clear the way for an upside breakout
2012-11-29 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we can now challenge the mid October highs
2012-11-29 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting impressive now
2012-11-29 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a fill of the pattern gap yesterday on the NYA
2012-11-29 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nice follow through today
2012-11-29 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-11-29 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't want to be heavily short here
2012-11-29 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this higher high all but puts the odds of our taking out the 11/16 lows now to less than 10%
2012-11-29 16:14:40 [Message] hkk -> Chat: are we still expecting a pullback into mid December or a challenge of the Oct highs from around these levels?
2012-11-29 16:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if the composite agrees
2012-11-29 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today makes that a difficult question
2012-11-29 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2012-11-29 16:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should pull back a bit from here
2012-11-29 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are "overbought"
2012-11-29 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the important message is
2012-11-29 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the price lows seen on 11/16 are the price lows are pretty solid
2012-11-29 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that only an outside chance of a challenge is indicated
2012-11-29 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if all of the other MCO's have moved to new highs today
2012-11-29 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if some have taken out their September highs
2012-11-29 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have one of those times in which divergence may not be necessary for a bottom
2012-11-29 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it was an emotional overplay that provided a spike low
2012-11-29 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a sudden reversal thrust up and out of the hole created by this same push lower in prices
2012-11-29 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a reasonable expectation
2012-11-29 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have to always respect what the market is able to generate and allow for aberrations from time to time
2012-11-29 16:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeps us on our proverbial toes
2012-11-29 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-11-29 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if last Friday was a back breaker for the bear case
2012-11-29 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's hard reversal broke the legs of this same bear case
2012-11-29 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-11-29 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have had their opportunity to take control now for over two months
2012-11-29 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is well over the normal expectation of having one side control the market's direction
2012-11-29 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last Friday's break above the resistance tops on the MCO's was needed to verify a turn in the MCSUM
2012-11-29 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that
2012-11-29 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the expectation for yesterday was for maybe a soft open, but then to rally the rest of the day since we had many of the MCO components at or near their zero lines
2012-11-29 16:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...we have follow through
2012-11-29 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which the bears were never able to do...except during the capitulation phase that was ignited by the "surprise" in the election
2012-11-29 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we talked about before that
2012-11-29 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that we had to be on guard to some sort of extended sell off because of the anticipation of capital gains increases maybe into December
2012-11-29 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's probably reasonable to believe that this selling was accelerated after the election
2012-11-29 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is
2012-11-29 16:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are showing more strength right now than what was normally expected
2012-11-29 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would had thought that after yesterday's bounce
2012-11-29 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we would diverge in the MCO (which we did)
2012-11-29 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then move down towards the zero line
2012-11-29 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (which we didn't)
2012-11-29 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this business
2012-11-29 16:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most important information we can get from the market
2012-11-29 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is when it DOESN'T do what is technically expected
2012-11-29 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are game changing moves
2012-11-29 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the technical breakdown of the MCO's
2012-11-29 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which led to the breakdown in prices that had our reach our downside price targets given by this same technical breakdown
2012-11-29 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday's move cancelled any targets that were not reached
2012-11-29 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today...well...we'll have to see
2012-11-29 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we take out the September MCO highs
2012-11-29 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then get new upside price objectives to work with
2012-11-29 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but before we even look
2012-11-29 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in a trading range for now
2012-11-29 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-11-29 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO moving to higher highs
2012-11-29 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top end of this same trading range is probably going to be the September/October highs
2012-11-29 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we might get one more purge lower
2012-11-29 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a possible challenge of the 11/16 lows
2012-11-29 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a higher MCO reading
2012-11-29 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would give us our divergence
2012-11-29 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would be classified as a simple A-B-C FLAT in the world of Elliott
2012-11-29 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you think about it
2012-11-29 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's going to be a continuation of the expectation of a Fiscal Cliff agreement
2012-11-29 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then a disappointment when there isn't
2012-11-29 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a A-B-C flat is doable
2012-11-29 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: caveat
2012-11-29 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is a "B" wave
2012-11-29 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will NOT move to higher highs in breadth and volume tools
2012-11-29 16:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do
2012-11-29 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we have the Elliott scenario that this is wave 1 and wave 2 would be our December lows
2012-11-29 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's fully on the front burner now
2012-11-29 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see more and more traders fighting this current advance
2012-11-29 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that every down tick is THE top
2012-11-29 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-11-29 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people will be focusing on any bearish divergences to forecast their turns
2012-11-29 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the A/D line moves higher
2012-11-29 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can diverge for many weeks and still move higher
2012-11-29 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a peek at the position of the A/D lines...one moment
2012-11-29 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line closed right at its declining tops line today
2012-11-29 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we broke above both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's to get here
2012-11-29 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that a pause, a pull back, would be in order before attempting to break above this area of resistance
2012-11-29 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, can take a week or two to do
2012-11-29 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and tests of the EMA's just violated in this same advance
2012-11-29 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-11-29 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line broke above this same overhead resistance line today
2012-11-29 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which probably means the MCO moved to higher highs...
2012-11-29 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it did
2012-11-29 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment and I'll link the combo charts...brb
2012-11-29 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYAD - http://tinyurl.com/conm228
2012-11-29 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the combo chart from top to bottom
2012-11-29 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the NYAD breadth MCO broke out on Monday
2012-11-29 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back on Tuesday
2012-11-29 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has moved to higher highs
2012-11-29 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is about as good of a pattern as you're going to see as to constructive evidence of a bottom being formed
2012-11-29 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if we can move above the mid September highs
2012-11-29 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices would then be cleared to move above the point in which price peaked out with this same mid September high point
2012-11-29 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for the NYA
2012-11-29 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also includes the October highs as well
2012-11-29 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYAD line itself
2012-11-29 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it also has followed this same pattern of breakout, snapback, and higher highs
2012-11-29 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the MCO
2012-11-29 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains just below its prior highs
2012-11-29 16:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order for this demonstration of positive breadth to continue
2012-11-29 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will have to happen concurrently between the raw data and the short term directional movement of this same raw data
2012-11-29 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a double whammy if you will
2012-11-29 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will pretty much kill off any bearish tendencies for several months
2012-11-29 16:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-11-29 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is now within striking distance of breaking above its own declining trend line as well
2012-11-29 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we always say in here
2012-11-29 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the market to impulse
2012-11-29 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything must "work together"...to work in sync...for things like this to happen
2012-11-29 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a higher high in the breadth
2012-11-29 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the MCO
2012-11-29 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would then allow the MCSUM to actually move above this same trendline of negative influence
2012-11-29 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where
2012-11-29 16:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of LEAST RESISTANCE would then become higher
2012-11-29 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of
2012-11-29 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an amazing wall of (fundamental) worry
2012-11-29 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone can have their opinion on fundamentals
2012-11-29 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in this business you grow to learn that you never argue with the direction of money
2012-11-29 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right or wrong..it IS what makes prices move in one direction or the other
2012-11-29 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2012-11-29 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was I read in passing on Friday?
2012-11-29 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the FED injected some 220 Billion dollars into the system on Friday?
2012-11-29 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can someone verify that?
2012-11-29 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the number was
2012-11-29 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter how good you think you are as an analyst
2012-11-29 16:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these "thumbs on the scale" can produce unusual results
2012-11-29 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like...maybe we don't need divergence?
2012-11-29 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't seem reasonable to us who are "well seasoned" in this business
2012-11-29 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2012-11-29 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen some amazing technical high (and low) points over the last 10 years that we've rarely, or ever, seen before
2012-11-29 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being over flowing with capital already
2012-11-29 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: adding more to the pool would probably take away any advantages for some analysts
2012-11-29 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just talking out loud here...for what it's worth
2012-11-29 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2012-11-29 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite MCO also moved to higher highs today
2012-11-29 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in doing so
2012-11-29 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also filled the MCSUM Gap resistance zone created by the 11/16 lows today
2012-11-29 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this a highly bullish event
2012-11-29 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it increases the odds that not only are we moving to the +250 level
2012-11-29 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're likely to break above it
2012-11-29 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow!
2012-11-29 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-11-29 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is now up until proven otherwise
2012-11-29 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all shorts should be closed
2012-11-29 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want confirmation on this turn around in the trend
2012-11-29 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any close above the early November consolidation price pattern area should be your solid stop
2012-11-29 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the this MCSUM is expanding to the upside now
2012-11-29 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is conviction here
2012-11-29 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a ton of money moving in
2012-11-29 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just to do this
2012-11-29 16:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor on the 1 year price pattern
2012-11-29 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the gap from last Friday broke above the declining tops line
2012-11-29 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yesterday was our snapback
2012-11-29 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, minimally
2012-11-29 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have enough energy now to challenge the September highs
2012-11-29 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's enough by itself to cover
2012-11-29 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2012-11-29 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by in the money calls
2012-11-29 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for insurance
2012-11-29 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-11-29 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% moved above its zero line today
2012-11-29 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a confirmed buy signal now
2012-11-29 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...let me get the NAAD combo chart before I forget
2012-11-29 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/dy34jky
2012-11-29 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's break this one down as well
2012-11-29 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the top of the chart
2012-11-29 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see the same pattern of breakout, snapback, and higher highs as we did with the NYSE MCO
2012-11-29 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have inter-market sync right now
2012-11-29 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with breadth and volume moving in this same fashion
2012-11-29 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NAAD line itself
2012-11-29 16:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the declining tops line we talked about earlier
2012-11-29 16:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is a good place to remember what we're doing here
2012-11-29 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the components move above or below their zero lines
2012-11-29 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells you that the EMA's are either moving higher or lower
2012-11-29 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's move in the 5% back above the zero line
2012-11-29 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this means that the 39 day EMA has now turned up because the NAAD line has moved sufficiently higher to turn this "trendline" in this same direction
2012-11-29 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart
2012-11-29 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see that is has
2012-11-29 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the components go
2012-11-29 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster these same EMA's are moving in this same direction
2012-11-29 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the 10% with a +81 reading
2012-11-29 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to imagine this is that the 19 day EMA is moving at a clip of about 81 miles an hour
2012-11-29 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% moving in this same direction by 19 MPH
2012-11-29 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: logic then will tell you
2012-11-29 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the 19 day EMA is going to catch up with the 39 day that much sooner even though the 39 day has turned up
2012-11-29 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM then shows you the distance between these two EMA's
2012-11-29 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with a reading of -363
2012-11-29 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the two EMA's is wide
2012-11-29 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the 10% making up for lost time
2012-11-29 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance will begin to narrow significantly
2012-11-29 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM moves ever closer to its zero line
2012-11-29 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the zero line being when both of these EMA's are at the same levels
2012-11-29 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're measuring the speed of money moving in
2012-11-29 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're also measuring the distance before there is a chance for one side to lose and the other to gain control
2012-11-29 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-29 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would then reason
2012-11-29 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NAAD line to break above its own resistance
2012-11-29 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be enough speed of the this same trend to accomplish this
2012-11-29 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be the declining tops line you see in gray on the chart
2012-11-29 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together
2012-11-29 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like you must have all your spark plugs firing off in sequence...otherwise your engine will misfire and jerk
2012-11-29 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a closer look at the current price of the COMPQ on the combo chart
2012-11-29 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that it is also at the same area of resistance
2012-11-29 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order for prices to move above the early November lows
2012-11-29 17:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there again must be enough energy...a break above the MCSUM declining tops line...to make this happen
2012-11-29 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we didn't see prices leading here
2012-11-29 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to continue to be open to the idea that we may not need more than a one or two day pause before actually breaking above this area of important resistance for both the bull and bear side
2012-11-29 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do break above this resistance
2012-11-29 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then expect two things
2012-11-29 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one...the MCSUM will likely move all the way back to the zero line
2012-11-29 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two...in order for this to happen, the NAAD line must continue to move net forward
2012-11-29 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will then find its expected resistance at the 1% Trend
2012-11-29 17:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the 200 day EMA
2012-11-29 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it's the end of the month
2012-11-29 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the positive seasonality that goes with it
2012-11-29 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't discount anything right now
2012-11-29 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if last Friday didn't impress you
2012-11-29 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today certainly did
2012-11-29 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully this and Tuesday's discussion on the subject of how to be technically disciplined is helping to understand how market mechanics really work here
2012-11-29 17:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market loves to have everyone thinking one way
2012-11-29 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it's easy to do so
2012-11-29 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trick in being a good technician is the ability to acknowledge everything around you, but to only follow what money is actually indicating
2012-11-29 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money was flowing out
2012-11-29 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then all of this bad news would have merit
2012-11-29 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it still might be
2012-11-29 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not now
2012-11-29 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like we always say
2012-11-29 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be very right in what you believe should happen in the markets
2012-11-29 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you might be very wrong in the timing
2012-11-29 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's where many lose their shirts
2012-11-29 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: timing
2012-11-29 17:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2012-11-29 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also moved to a slightly higher high today
2012-11-29 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was more difficult to do so given the already highly "overbought" readings in this MCO
2012-11-29 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2012-11-29 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we expected on Tuesday
2012-11-29 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved right through our pattern resistance on Wednesday with very little effort
2012-11-29 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have a nice, smooth, large expansion gaps moving to the upside in progress
2012-11-29 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is conviction
2012-11-29 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is power
2012-11-29 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not to be "faded"
2012-11-29 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is to be piggy backed
2012-11-29 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the next area of probable resistance comes in at the -250 level
2012-11-29 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has both pattern and 250 multiple resistance
2012-11-29 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we are so "overbought" here
2012-11-29 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going to be any trouble at all to move above this level in the next couple of days
2012-11-29 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here is for a full zero line snapback
2012-11-29 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we'll have our next chance of a pause
2012-11-29 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would equate to the 2800 level on the NDX
2012-11-29 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or another 120 points from here
2012-11-29 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to give you a better indication of how important it is to see these gap expansions
2012-11-29 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look at the December rally of last year
2012-11-29 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2012-11-29 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how dire it was back then
2012-11-29 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we just got through the Black Friday lows
2012-11-29 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this year...it was a breakout point
2012-11-29 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also providing a nice example of what we still could see before we actually bottom
2012-11-29 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-11-29 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that when the MCSUM forecasts a low or high that is "tradable"
2012-11-29 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it includes any momentum that goes along with the bottom or top extreme of the pattern itself
2012-11-29 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-29 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM forecasted a mid October tradable high
2012-11-29 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we did have a high point in September when the MCSUM peaked
2012-11-29 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't until mid October...with a test of this same September high, that a tradable top was in place
2012-11-29 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other markets had their own drum core to work with
2012-11-29 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's always best to use the NYSE breadth MCSUM for these kind of forecasts
2012-11-29 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-29 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a tradable price low here for mid December
2012-11-29 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be at around this point
2012-11-29 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we rally a little more
2012-11-29 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2012-11-29 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be as we move down within the pattern of this trading range
2012-11-29 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be from THAT point where a trending sequence is likely to have its beginning
2012-11-29 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once all of the momentum of the energy that was generated by the 11/16 lows has fully dissipated
2012-11-29 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...also keep in mind
2012-11-29 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the current opposing force that's given here
2012-11-29 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also works off this same downside momentum created by the 11/16 bottom
2012-11-29 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we may not have to move to see a direct challenge of these same price lows of the 16th in order to be deemed "exhausted"
2012-11-29 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what we do know
2012-11-29 17:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1) the lows of 11/16 were indeed important, and not likely to be taken out anytime soon
2012-11-29 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2) that all downside price objectives have now been canceled
2012-11-29 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3) that we're on the cusp of getting new upside objectives
2012-11-29 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4) if the MCO and MCSUM are on opposite sides of their zero lines, we're in a trading range
2012-11-29 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's touch on that for a moment
2012-11-29 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM is no longer below its zero line now
2012-11-29 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls are technically back in control here
2012-11-29 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they break above their declining tops line
2012-11-29 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will have no resistance to hold them back
2012-11-29 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we had higher MCO highs today
2012-11-29 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of the bears coming up with any kind of defense of this line that will hold the bulls back is quite low now
2012-11-29 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the market realizes this
2012-11-29 17:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls break through this resistance
2012-11-29 17:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon on Tuesday
2012-11-29 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are likely to move north quite aggressively
2012-11-29 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2012-11-29 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO did NOT move to new highs today
2012-11-29 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SPX breadth MCSUM is approaching its zero line
2012-11-29 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should provide some initial resistance for the bulls
2012-11-29 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would then allow our expectation of a "back and fill" to finally take place
2012-11-29 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the 10% Trend of the SPX breadth MCO did move to higher highs today
2012-11-29 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything, the SPX A/D line is continuing to move higher here
2012-11-29 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the SPX breadth MCO was only able to snapback to the +25 level before moving higher
2012-11-29 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this usually occurs when the MCO is in the beginning stages of tracing out a complex pattern structure
2012-11-29 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: complex here means that the bulls have control by keeping the MCO above the zero line for a prolong period of time
2012-11-29 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will usually continue to hold on to this control for a couple of weeks
2012-11-29 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears near term opportunity would be to use today's divergence to move the SPX breadth MCO to below the -25 level
2012-11-29 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the bulls push it to higher highs
2012-11-29 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can expect the SPX breadth MCSUM to move above the zero line...and probably concurrently
2012-11-29 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-11-29 17:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM
2012-11-29 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a textbook correctional bottom at the -500 level
2012-11-29 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are in big trouble
2012-11-29 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully they won't allow their ego get in the way of their good sense
2012-11-29 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit of divergence on the Dow breadth MCO
2012-11-29 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at how it also found support at the +25 level
2012-11-29 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a higher high in the MID breadth MCO
2012-11-29 17:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably is since the MID breadth MCSUM is about to pass through its zero line now to the upside
2012-11-29 17:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at where the price pattern lies
2012-11-29 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just below an area of tops where fresh money would need to come in simultaneously to break above this same resistance
2012-11-29 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh man!
2012-11-29 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go on the SML
2012-11-29 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the entire market is now in gear to the upside
2012-11-29 17:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that shows up nicely with the new highs in the TM breadth MCO
2012-11-29 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-29 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a price low behind us for now
2012-11-29 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that we don't have is whether or not its one in which prices are likely to trend
2012-11-29 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's only because of the single spike MCO lows seen on the charts
2012-11-29 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it was the volume MCO
2012-11-29 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problems
2012-11-29 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we usually see these kinds of structures
2012-11-29 17:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be highly unusual to see this happen with a single low in the MCO without the benefit of any real texture
2012-11-29 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2012-11-29 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke out
2012-11-29 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back
2012-11-29 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved to higher highs
2012-11-29 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we MUST respect that for what it does suggest
2012-11-29 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-11-29 17:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the start of Primary (3) of 3 for the market
2012-11-29 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might believe that the power of such a degree of trend may not need this same type 1 divergence in which just about every single technician is looking for
2012-11-29 17:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have discussed many times before
2012-11-29 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if everyone is trading off the same thing
2012-11-29 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it likely to happen?
2012-11-29 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2012-11-29 17:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-29 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ is very strong here
2012-11-29 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also the most "undervalued" basket of stocks out there right now
2012-11-29 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe it's just a simple case of money moving into areas it deems as having the most gain potential
2012-11-29 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2012-11-29 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not forget to mention
2012-11-29 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do have bull divergence on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-11-29 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as does the NDX breadth MCO
2012-11-29 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which we knew about over 2 weeks ago
2012-11-29 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than that
2012-11-29 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a month ago
2012-11-29 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms controlling the pattern
2012-11-29 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everyone watching Apple and feeling really bearish
2012-11-29 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well all of the volume MCO's are pretty much testing their recent highs...
2012-11-29 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except
2012-11-29 17:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML
2012-11-29 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: man oh man
2012-11-29 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have my list ready...
2012-11-29 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and higher highs on the TM volume MCO
2012-11-29 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-29 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we're entitled to rest here
2012-11-29 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the background fundamentals, and the sentiment it's generating, could allow the buyers to continue to push things in their direction given other factors (such as seasonality)
2012-11-29 17:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if all of the MCO's take out their mid September highs
2012-11-29 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be enough of a push to call the mid December bottom complete 3 weeks early
2012-11-29 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2012-11-29 17:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were initially working with a mid NOVEMBER low up until the technical breakdown took place just after the elections
2012-11-29 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe...just maybe
2012-11-29 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the election results caused a "rogue wave" to hit the markets
2012-11-29 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're back to "usual"
2012-11-29 17:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to say right now
2012-11-29 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the tone here is very firm
2012-11-29 17:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing surprises
2012-11-29 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OEX CVI is now climactic
2012-11-29 17:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest are near climactic
2012-11-29 17:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they can be a little more frothy
2012-11-29 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2012-11-29 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain neutral
2012-11-29 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .81
2012-11-29 17:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2012-11-29 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the threshold of being "oversold"
2012-11-29 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.07
2012-11-29 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .82
2012-11-29 17:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to being "overbought"
2012-11-29 17:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we know
2012-11-29 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 TRINQ can move all the way to .65-.70 before it can exhaust itself
2012-11-29 17:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .94
2012-11-29 17:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2012-11-29 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2012-11-29 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-29 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have the ball
2012-11-29 17:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are wiping the field of the bears
2012-11-29 17:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we approach some important declining tops lines in the MCSUM's
2012-11-29 17:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will have to use their best goal line defense to keep the bulls from scoring
2012-11-29 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the momentum here is very powerful
2012-11-29 17:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears may not have any answer for it near term
2012-11-29 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see how it goes
2012-11-29 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bulls can keep the pressure on
2012-11-29 17:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could turn out to be quite a rally
2012-11-29 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market seems to be looking for clarity
2012-11-29 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taxes?
2012-11-29 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're going up
2012-11-29 17:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market has discounted this
2012-11-29 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no agreement could be good or bad
2012-11-29 17:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is why we don't need fundamentals here
2012-11-29 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is showing the way
2012-11-29 17:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's moving in a good clip
2012-11-29 18:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so who are we to argue?
2012-11-29 18:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-29 18:00:10 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so what would be the prudent thing to do at this point? i was fairly bullish until we had our technical breakdown earlier this month, but now it seems like the market is getting away
2012-11-29 18:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you short?
2012-11-29 18:00:26 [Message] hkk -> Chat: nope
2012-11-29 18:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that is different this time around
2012-11-29 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the expansion of the posts of the MCSUM
2012-11-29 18:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where before it was like pulling teeth before
2012-11-29 18:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now there is little doubt as to its intentions
2012-11-29 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me?
2012-11-29 18:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personally
2012-11-29 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have seen enough now to accumulate
2012-11-29 18:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a short list
2012-11-29 18:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I also liked the way the interest rate sensitive A/D lines performed last week
2012-11-29 18:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the REITS are looking good again
2012-11-29 18:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're due for ex dividend's in December
2012-11-29 18:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way things are going right now
2012-11-29 18:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is turning from a market of stocks BACK to a stock market
2012-11-29 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing broad participation here
2012-11-29 18:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth and volume are confirming
2012-11-29 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't seen that since the mid September top
2012-11-29 18:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have inter-market relationships confirming
2012-11-29 18:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the one thing I have to stress here
2012-11-29 18:03:23 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so we should begin accumulating at these levels because it is now unlikely to go much lower from here?
2012-11-29 18:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there is absolutely no lack of liquidity here
2012-11-29 18:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any or all pullbacks will continue to be absorbed quite quickly as we just saw two weeks ago
2012-11-29 18:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get index pattern breakouts on the MCSUM's
2012-11-29 18:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my suggestion is to focus on the sectors that are leading higher - like Biotech (BBH) (for example)
2012-11-29 18:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then going with the stock(s) that are leading those sectors
2012-11-29 18:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also saw tonight
2012-11-29 18:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the small caps are on fire
2012-11-29 18:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2012-11-29 18:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we think about it
2012-11-29 18:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were more buoyant in October than the large caps were
2012-11-29 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which told us
2012-11-29 18:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any correction was just that...and NOT the start of a bear trend
2012-11-29 18:06:03 [Message] hkk -> Chat: the lack of texture in the MCO's make it a bit uncomfortable to go aggressively long here
2012-11-29 18:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then don't
2012-11-29 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: accumulating is not being aggressive
2012-11-29 18:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're finding value
2012-11-29 18:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're placing comfortable stops
2012-11-29 18:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the "all clear" is given
2012-11-29 18:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you have on your side right now is...
2012-11-29 18:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: performance
2012-11-29 18:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't had broken above the MCO tops last week
2012-11-29 18:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did
2012-11-29 18:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't had moved to higher highs in many of the MCO's today
2012-11-29 18:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did
2012-11-29 18:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is not whispering here
2012-11-29 18:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's screaming
2012-11-29 18:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what it doesn't do what is a reasonable expectation is more important then doing what is expected
2012-11-29 18:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if your stomach is nervous when you make the trade, it's probably the right now :)
2012-11-29 18:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it's comfortable
2012-11-29 18:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's usually when the best is behind you
2012-11-29 18:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes easy
2012-11-29 18:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like for the bears two weeks ago
2012-11-29 18:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was easy
2012-11-29 18:09:29 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so at this point, is it highly unlikely for the MCO to break below 0?
2012-11-29 18:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM?
2012-11-29 18:09:46 [Message] hkk -> Chat: the MCO
2012-11-29 18:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a snapback to the MCO zero line?
2012-11-29 18:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually, you will have a snapback to the zero line
2012-11-29 18:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it won't be this week
2012-11-29 18:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe next week
2012-11-29 18:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will eventually get there
2012-11-29 18:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that is not your focus
2012-11-29 18:10:23 [Message] hkk -> Chat: snapback to the zero line but unlikely to go negative?
2012-11-29 18:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you drive in your car
2012-11-29 18:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you slam your foot down on the accelerator
2012-11-29 18:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you speed up to 90 MPH
2012-11-29 18:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take your foot off the pedal (the MCO moving back to the zero line)
2012-11-29 18:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does your forward progress stop?
2012-11-29 18:11:13 [Message] hkk -> Chat: no
2012-11-29 18:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-11-29 18:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shuttle has left the pad
2012-11-29 18:11:46 [Message] hkk -> Chat: what kind of time frame can we work with at this point before we see anything close to a tradable top?
2012-11-29 18:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not given as yet
2012-11-29 18:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to make sure the mid December forecast is either met or canceled first
2012-11-29 18:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't worry about it
2012-11-29 18:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2012-11-29 18:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the thrust we had last June
2012-11-29 18:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most we'll get out of this rally was the March or April period of next year
2012-11-29 18:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we get higher highs MCO's in the current move
2012-11-29 18:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will be extended out further
2012-11-29 18:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NYA pattern
2012-11-29 18:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see the bottoms above bottoms structure that had its beginning in June?
2012-11-29 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still part of this move
2012-11-29 18:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason?
2012-11-29 18:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the NYSE breadth MCSUM never moved back below the -250 level
2012-11-29 18:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is STILL in a bullish configuration
2012-11-29 18:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is STILL working with the thrust given back in June!
2012-11-29 18:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was STILL above the zero line when this final capitulation took place this month
2012-11-29 18:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our sell with the technical breakdown was only practicing good discipline
2012-11-29 18:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we banked profits
2012-11-29 18:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...it's time to review those issues
2012-11-29 18:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're still leading...back in we go
2012-11-29 18:15:33 [Message] hkk -> Chat: if the MCO breaks above the September highs, can we expect a very bullish December, and not a trading range?
2012-11-29 18:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...use your list
2012-11-29 18:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use DP
2012-11-29 18:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the Chart section
2012-11-29 18:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see what sectors are leading
2012-11-29 18:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stocks that make up those same sectors
2012-11-29 18:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to be conservative
2012-11-29 18:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for a BETS accumulation signal
2012-11-29 18:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which might come this weekend
2012-11-29 18:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...the BETS is working out really nicely here
2012-11-29 18:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope it's providing good guidance for everyone
2012-11-29 18:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we're way over time
2012-11-29 18:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I put up the December chat schedule yesterday
2012-11-29 18:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so please take a moment to mark down our dates for the month
2012-11-29 18:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week is Tuesday/Thursday
2012-11-29 18:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until then
2012-11-29 18:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-11-29 18:18:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-11-29 18:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what other surprises we might see next week!
2012-11-29 18:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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