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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-29 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-29 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-29 16:00:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks, and you?
2011-11-29 16:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess I'm OK...let me check
2011-11-29 16:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still here
2011-11-29 16:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: saw you were pretty bulled up on TT, LOL
2011-11-29 16:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-11-29 16:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea
2011-11-29 16:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bullied up
2011-11-29 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty comfortable really based on the opinions I'm reading
2011-11-29 16:02:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-29 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get rockin and rollin??
2011-11-29 16:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-11-29 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we last met
2011-11-29 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our objective for the rest of last week was for a possibility of a relief rally to kick in by Friday
2011-11-29 16:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but last Wednesday's negative action kind of pushed that time table out till yesterday
2011-11-29 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we finally got our sharp short covering rally to relieve the highly "oversold" nature of the MCO
2011-11-29 16:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this reflex is also taking place at or near important "pause" points in the various MCSUM's
2011-11-29 16:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some at their zero lines
2011-11-29 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some at their snapback lines
2011-11-29 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick peak at the combo chart - one moment
2011-11-29 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting juncture...give me a moment to upload the chart
2011-11-29 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad112911.png
2011-11-29 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's start at the top and work ourselves lower
2011-11-29 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see that the NYSE breadth MCO is still a ways away from even testing its declining tops line at this juncture
2011-11-29 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would allow another day or two of reflex before we would reach an important juncture with this current decline
2011-11-29 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the center chart...and NYA prices
2011-11-29 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are still a bit away from fulfilling a total snapback to what was our line of support
2011-11-29 16:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the SPX that would be around the 1220/1225 level
2011-11-29 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here in the NYA, that would be about the 7400 level
2011-11-29 16:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of the NYAD line
2011-11-29 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we're now getting close to where the 19 day EMA could see a technical bounce higher off of the 39 day EMA before it has a chance to move below it
2011-11-29 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something like this would allow the NYAD line itself to snapback up to these same EMA's as a test of itself
2011-11-29 16:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE breadth MCSUM at the bottom of the chart
2011-11-29 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we are now within the vicinity of maybe finding snapback support off of the line drawn in purple
2011-11-29 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next couple of days are going to probably turn out to be set up days for the rest of the month
2011-11-29 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we might see some additional firmness in the pattern as soon as Wednesday as it attempts to both relieve its seller to buyer imbalance
2011-11-29 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore find a new starting point from where one side is likely to again take charge of the total structure
2011-11-29 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-11-29 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't find this support in the next couple of days
2011-11-29 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably in for some sort of acceleration to the downside as one would expect when stepping on your car brakes after driving through a puddle...you'll tend to slip and slide all over the road until the pads again dry enough so that you can again attempt to gain traction
2011-11-29 16:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all..the bears remain fully in control of the short term trend here
2011-11-29 16:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are now "that close" in taking the bulls by the horns and throwing them for a loss on an intermediate terms basis
2011-11-29 16:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with all that said
2011-11-29 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other concern for the bulls is that many of the volume MCSUM's are now about to go negative here
2011-11-29 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean that the intermediate term trend of down volume over up volume is taking a turn for the worse
2011-11-29 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that we may continue to have some additional relief rallies here near term
2011-11-29 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will tend to have not too much behind them
2011-11-29 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a rally failure will probably be the direct result
2011-11-29 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN we'll again have the opportunity to accelerate to the downside
2011-11-29 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, all in all, this is not a time to become bullish
2011-11-29 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to look for a "V" bottom here
2011-11-29 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2011-11-29 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was enough technical damage done that it's probably going to take the better part of December to right the ship enough to where a new advancing price sequence can begin
2011-11-29 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should continue to see any counter trend moves to be quick and sharp
2011-11-29 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and decrease in amplitude the further the we're able to construct the necessary texture for a price bottom to have a foundational base
2011-11-29 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...
2011-11-29 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not out of the woods as yet by any stretch of the imaginatino
2011-11-29 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and having a .13 NYSE TRIN yesterday is just not a healthy thing either
2011-11-29 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much...too fast
2011-11-29 16:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and certainly not broad enough to really help at this stage
2011-11-29 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that said...
2011-11-29 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the DP charts
2011-11-29 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after having a sharp snapback higher yesterday
2011-11-29 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO again moved higher today
2011-11-29 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the degree of thrust slowed down remarkably today with only a +8 reading
2011-11-29 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our main attention for now
2011-11-29 16:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it will be with all of the breadth MCO's
2011-11-29 16:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is our blip resistance areas
2011-11-29 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be that little move higher we saw last week before the real internal damage took place
2011-11-29 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we move above this small blip area
2011-11-29 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have the dominance of the trend
2011-11-29 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls will need to move above this same level to slow the rate in which money is actually leaving the marketplace
2011-11-29 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-29 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they remain in a bearish configuration
2011-11-29 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with nothing as yet suggesting a slowing in the downside momentum
2011-11-29 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-29 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it did indeed cross below its zero line today
2011-11-29 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pushing control into the paws of the bears
2011-11-29 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means
2011-11-29 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the 19 day EMA has now crossed down and through the 39 day EMA of the CO NYAD line
2011-11-29 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means that the A/D line itself is probably continuing to decline here
2011-11-29 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad11/breadthdjia112511.png
2011-11-29 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably testing the lower range seen on the above chart
2011-11-29 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this is an important subset of the NYAD line for a couple of reasons
2011-11-29 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in one context
2011-11-29 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it pretty much has the same representative of make up of the DAX and FTSE A/D lines
2011-11-29 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we saw on Sunday
2011-11-29 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of these A/D lines have already broken below this comparable support level last week
2011-11-29 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I remember correctly
2011-11-29 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the DAX and the FTSE breadth MCSUM's also found upside resistance at oar just above their zero lines as well before moving to lower lows on the raw data
2011-11-29 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the near term is still a bit on the foggy side as far as when we're likely to see our first piece of constructive evidence that the market is washed out enough to where a keystone can begin to be put together
2011-11-29 16:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one clue, of course, would be if we're able to move above blip resistance on the MCO
2011-11-29 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things shake out tomorrow
2011-11-29 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we also have the jobs numbers this week
2011-11-29 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means ADP is tomorrow (?)
2011-11-29 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's tomorrow
2011-11-29 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strange month...
2011-11-29 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the composite data
2011-11-29 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see here too that we remain below "blip resistance" on the composite NYSE breadth MCO with a near small point change
2011-11-29 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the amount of energy that came in yesterday with the historic low TRIN number
2011-11-29 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may not be the best follow through one would hope for after expanding so much energy
2011-11-29 16:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a pause point...to catch our brea(d)th
2011-11-29 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the rhythm here is choppy and not showing enough fluidity at this juncture
2011-11-29 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2011-11-29 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking below our divergent lows last week
2011-11-29 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have created a new flag here
2011-11-29 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we find new vigor tomorrow to the upside
2011-11-29 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out our first resistance point (blip)
2011-11-29 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're VERY likely to have some sort of retest of this same spike lows we saw on Friday
2011-11-29 16:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-29 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% component has now fulfilled the minimal expectation of snapping back towards its zero line as was our preferred outlook from last Tuesday
2011-11-29 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again
2011-11-29 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to see more follow through near term
2011-11-29 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may just dig a little deeper into the negative trend first before we've been able to squeeze out all of the unwilling sellers
2011-11-29 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2011-11-29 16:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to our Elliott plan from last Tuesday
2011-11-29 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may have only completed our 3 of 3 down on Friday
2011-11-29 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and an "out of the blue" wave 4 began yesterday
2011-11-29 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the weakness seen today
2011-11-29 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might just turn out to be a simple structure before moving lower again to complete the total wave pattern structure
2011-11-29 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just another angle here
2011-11-29 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we continue to keep focused on what is truly important
2011-11-29 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this IS a wave 4
2011-11-29 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blip resistance will need to be taken out to confirm
2011-11-29 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain defensive
2011-11-29 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-11-29 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now crossed down and through the -250 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-11-29 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless we turn up hard tomorrow
2011-11-29 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next downside target for this MCSUM will be the -500 level
2011-11-29 16:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2011-11-29 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the degree of decline will now begin to accelerate both in breadth and scope
2011-11-29 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily price pattern has only, so far, barely moved within the extension gap lower from last week
2011-11-29 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about last Monday
2011-11-29 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this gap will need to be filled quickly
2011-11-29 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we'll have a confirmed measuring gap to work with
2011-11-29 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it is a measuring gap
2011-11-29 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside price target for the NASDAQ composite would be...
2011-11-29 16:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like 2350...or around the August lows
2011-11-29 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which the MCO already gave this same downside target last week
2011-11-29 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have both the internals and the externals in agreement here
2011-11-29 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as, of course, we don't close the price gap
2011-11-29 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally fall away from it by tomorrow
2011-11-29 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2011-11-29 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the rising bottoms line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM crosses at around the -600 level
2011-11-29 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we discussed last week
2011-11-29 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are able to move to new lows on prices
2011-11-29 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remain divergent both with the MCO and MCSUM
2011-11-29 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will probably have a better tradable bottom to work with
2011-11-29 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at the very least
2011-11-29 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a very important price floor to work with
2011-11-29 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...far the MCO is holding up on its end of the bargain
2011-11-29 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still too early as yet to get excited about it
2011-11-29 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we have the likelihood of another shoe dropping here
2011-11-29 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NDX breadth MCO
2011-11-29 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX breadth MCSUM moving down and through its zero line yesterday
2011-11-29 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, as you might reasonably guess, is not a good thing when prices were up strongly on the same day
2011-11-29 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as prices don't lead breadth
2011-11-29 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads the direction of prices
2011-11-29 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's another area in which those who may be looking for a bottom better take a moment to re-examine their outlooks
2011-11-29 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price gap here
2011-11-29 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was partial closed today
2011-11-29 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow is important here
2011-11-29 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've gone about as far as one can go and still keep the label of that gap being of the "measuring variety"
2011-11-29 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target there is about the same as the composite...about the 2075 level or the August lows
2011-11-29 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2011-11-29 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have moved above our blip resistance point
2011-11-29 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would suggest that we're in some sort of counter trend relief rally (wave 4)
2011-11-29 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would then also increase the chances that we might, after all, relieve more of the selling pressure of last week to complete the various snapbacks that we discussed at the beginning of the chat
2011-11-29 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price bar also showed a bit of exhaustion today
2011-11-29 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still closed above yesterdays close
2011-11-29 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could really go either way here
2011-11-29 17:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finish off a full snapback to or towards the SPX breadth MCO zero line
2011-11-29 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before, once again, the bears attempt to regain the momentum they had to the downside
2011-11-29 17:00:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if it's a 4, it already has enough size...just saying
2011-11-29 17:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX breadth MCO
2011-11-29 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as Fib retracement?
2011-11-29 17:01:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-11-29 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .382?
2011-11-29 17:01:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a bit more
2011-11-29 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or .236
2011-11-29 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .50?
2011-11-29 17:01:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not yet
2011-11-29 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (let's hope not)
2011-11-29 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-11-29 17:01:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh man!
2011-11-29 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the minimal expectation
2011-11-29 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 50% retracement would be a death sentence for the structure
2011-11-29 17:02:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-11-29 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the heads up
2011-11-29 17:02:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no prob
2011-11-29 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +500 level yesterday
2011-11-29 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the SPX and the OEX breadth MCSUM's
2011-11-29 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might still be buoyed enough to where we might see another day or two of firm, choppy behavior here
2011-11-29 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both attempt to find their natural MCSUM 250 multiple support lines
2011-11-29 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a near term problem for the OEX
2011-11-29 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with its 5% Trend now up against its zero line
2011-11-29 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe another day to help bring up the 10%
2011-11-29 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this doesn't have to happen
2011-11-29 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking
2011-11-29 17:04:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: .415 retrace so far
2011-11-29 17:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: danka
2011-11-29 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO has not moved about its blip resistance as yet
2011-11-29 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback up to the zero line now complete on the 5% component
2011-11-29 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...I'll say it again
2011-11-29 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is so lucky here that liquidity levels remain well above levels to maintain price buoyancy here
2011-11-29 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a case where again...it's NOT a lack of liquidity that is making prices move lower....
2011-11-29 17:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least yet
2011-11-29 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but boy the calls for a Euro collapse here are getting might loud, aren't they?
2011-11-29 17:07:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: .3785 from the correct spot, sorry
2011-11-29 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're kidding?
2011-11-29 17:07:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-11-29 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good enough
2011-11-29 17:07:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's right this time
2011-11-29 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a .382
2011-11-29 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that intraday or close?
2011-11-29 17:08:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: intraday
2011-11-29 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-11-29 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-11-29 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the market had troubles moving to new highs in the afternoon after the Greece announcement was our Fib resistance point?
2011-11-29 17:09:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-29 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that answers a couple of questions then
2011-11-29 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-29 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for prices to move above the .382 level
2011-11-29 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blip resistance areas on the MCO's will need to be taken out
2011-11-29 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be important to watch not so much what prices do tomorrow but what the breadth numbers show
2011-11-29 17:10:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what kind of numbers? please
2011-11-29 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...still below blip resistance on the MID breadth MCO
2011-11-29 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec...let me see
2011-11-29 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no change on the NYSE breadth MCO is a reading of -351
2011-11-29 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something of 3:1 or better should do it
2011-11-29 17:12:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2011-11-29 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: de nada
2011-11-29 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2011-11-29 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2011-11-29 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about a mile away from its blip resistance point
2011-11-29 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM moved below its zero line today
2011-11-29 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is after we moved to new 52 week lows on the MCO last Friday?
2011-11-29 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good sign for the bulls here
2011-11-29 17:13:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: would the 4 of the 3 break the blip?
2011-11-29 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we have only the cream stocks pushing above their blip resistance points here
2011-11-29 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-11-29 17:14:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-11-29 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-11-29 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sub divide here
2011-11-29 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we a small series of 1's and 2's before we fell apart
2011-11-29 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a couple of 4's and 5's are needed to finish it off
2011-11-29 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "in theory"
2011-11-29 17:15:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: right, I see that now
2011-11-29 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking
2011-11-29 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can't break above these blip resistance points quickly
2011-11-29 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will remain "heavy"
2011-11-29 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and very vulnerable to any bad news
2011-11-29 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this has become a news driven market for the last 4 months
2011-11-29 17:16:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bank downgrade AH may not help
2011-11-29 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not what the bulls want to see here
2011-11-29 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they were probably anticipated after last weeks downgrades of whole countries
2011-11-29 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Rumors are growing louder now about France and the UK
2011-11-29 17:16:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, but can still be merchandised
2011-11-29 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-11-29 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what futures are doing
2011-11-29 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flat
2011-11-29 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the announcement of today's downgrades is a head scratcher for many out there I'm sure
2011-11-29 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it goes to show why being a technician has its advantages
2011-11-29 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-11-29 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we "could" see a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2011-11-29 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in any event
2011-11-29 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are, once again, compressed here
2011-11-29 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I would be a worried long just having had a 9:1 positive breadth one day and the next seeing it shrink to being flat the next
2011-11-29 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite what you would look for to provide continuation
2011-11-29 17:20:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: compressed-but this time under both zero lines on many indexes
2011-11-29 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's next
2011-11-29 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO volume MCO did move slightly above its blip resistance point today
2011-11-29 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO volume MCSUM is now echoing its breadth cousin by moving down below its zero line
2011-11-29 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the short term is mixed
2011-11-29 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the intermediate term is showing that the bears are starting to gain control at this stage
2011-11-29 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the short term "mixed" could provide some added traction to find near term MCSUM support near the zero lines
2011-11-29 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about the same situation here with the composite NYSE volume MCO
2011-11-29 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the composite volume MCSUM now has a reading of +69
2011-11-29 17:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-11-29 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would want to at least try to hold the line here
2011-11-29 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and attempt to rally the market higher
2011-11-29 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we might be setting up for a Summation Failure pattern
2011-11-29 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after having peaking out recently
2011-11-29 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would not be the best thing to happen for the longer term condition of the market itself
2011-11-29 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be healthier right now
2011-11-29 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to move down and through this same zero line and create a capitulation point
2011-11-29 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then hopefully find support at the summer lows
2011-11-29 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we have another problem here near term
2011-11-29 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be the new 52 week lows the composite NYSE volume MCO accomplished on Friday
2011-11-29 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...
2011-11-29 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2011-11-29 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising bottoms line on the NYSE volume MCSUM is right at where we closed today
2011-11-29 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're sitting on that line now
2011-11-29 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then mean
2011-11-29 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really do need to put up or shut up right here, right now...there is no tomorrow
2011-11-29 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise, our next likely support will be the -500 level
2011-11-29 17:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we might still have a chance of divergence
2011-11-29 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we would now need a new divergent low in the MCO
2011-11-29 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough
2011-11-29 17:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the snapback line to what was the declining tops line on the 1 year chart comes in at this same -500 level
2011-11-29 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-11-29 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-11-29 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is trying its best to hold its zero line
2011-11-29 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NDX volume MCO
2011-11-29 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we have now completed a simple snapback to what was horizontal support on this same MCO
2011-11-29 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM is about to move below its zero line
2011-11-29 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too the bulls really need to show some backbone here to keep the longer term trend from moving negative
2011-11-29 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX volume MCO
2011-11-29 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX volume MCSUM moved below its zero line today
2011-11-29 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is after being able to move to high liquidity levels?
2011-11-29 17:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something is wrong here
2011-11-29 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is NOT healthy
2011-11-29 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much liquidity has been pulled from the system
2011-11-29 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can all give guesses on where this same money is needed (going)
2011-11-29 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the Dow volume MCO...and a zero line breakdown on the MCSUM as well
2011-11-29 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCSUM also went negative today
2011-11-29 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the SML volume data
2011-11-29 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just about the same with the TM volume numbers
2011-11-29 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-29 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like the 13th round of a 15 round event and the market has been beaten to a point to where if it doesn't dig deep here, it's liable to hit the deck in a big way
2011-11-29 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just let breadth of market be your guide
2011-11-29 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the longer term
2011-11-29 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't really know which would be better here given the information we have to work with
2011-11-29 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do just fall apart and hopefully regain control?
2011-11-29 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or attempt to hold here and hope for help to keep things from falling apart?
2011-11-29 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-11-29 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected last week
2011-11-29 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have a better handle on how long and deep this will likely turn out to be by this coming Thursday
2011-11-29 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2011-11-29 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2011-11-29 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's have now snapped back to highly "oversold"
2011-11-29 17:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not deeply "oversold"
2011-11-29 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's still have another couple of days in front of them before going to "oversold" levels
2011-11-29 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .98
2011-11-29 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better
2011-11-29 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.21
2011-11-29 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .87
2011-11-29 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2011-11-29 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could improve
2011-11-29 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .98
2011-11-29 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2011-11-29 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the high Open 10 numbers are keeping things from getting out of hand
2011-11-29 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's still a lot of question marks still yet to be answered
2011-11-29 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall, we remain defensive here
2011-11-29 17:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the market begins the effort of trying to construct a foundational base
2011-11-29 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last Tuesday
2011-11-29 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably going to take another 3 or 4 weeks before we see this take place
2011-11-29 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's absolutely no hurry here to try to catch a train that's likely going nowhere
2011-11-29 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else you guys see out there?
2011-11-29 17:46:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: volume osc on the financials is pretty ugly
2011-11-29 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look
2011-11-29 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...new lows there
2011-11-29 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're "this close" now in getting rid of the reverse split of Citi on the data
2011-11-29 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2011-11-29 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can begin a period of backing and filling
2011-11-29 17:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have a nice bottom to work with here
2011-11-29 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's really bothersome to lose so much liquidity in such a short period of time
2011-11-29 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is really concerning
2011-11-29 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this money is going to "covering up" a hole in the system
2011-11-29 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the problem is
2011-11-29 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't really know how big a hole we're dealing with...and where the hole is to go around it
2011-11-29 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something is "worse than what its being credited for"
2011-11-29 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess will have to wait and see how it all goes down
2011-11-29 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the overnight trading of late...boy...my hats to anyone who's trading outside the cash market here
2011-11-29 17:51:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, a real bottom needs a big scare anyway, no?
2011-11-29 17:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2011-11-29 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not at the expense on losing an entire "sovereignty"
2011-11-29 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-11-29 17:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the Euro collapses
2011-11-29 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dollar goes up
2011-11-29 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the dollar goes higher
2011-11-29 17:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then everything dollar denominated will be adjusted as far as value is concerned
2011-11-29 17:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not including any selling to cover positions of current collapse
2011-11-29 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: definitely one of those extraordinary times
2011-11-29 17:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes
2011-11-29 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment wise
2011-11-29 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that this would be part of a great price bottom
2011-11-29 17:55:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-11-29 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we're talking a major currency of the west
2011-11-29 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's bound to have problems never realized before
2011-11-29 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the 1920's
2011-11-29 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had currency collapses
2011-11-29 17:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they were countries and not continents
2011-11-29 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the EU was put together to compete with the US
2011-11-29 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but their language, borders, and histories were always in the way of this goal
2011-11-29 17:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a historical standard
2011-11-29 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all happening at break neck speed now
2011-11-29 17:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks to be too little too late
2011-11-29 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've seen and heard that before too
2011-11-29 17:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-29 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch money flow and follow it
2011-11-29 17:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how the pieces fall
2011-11-29 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-11-29 17:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there isn't anything else
2011-11-29 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-11-29 17:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-11-29 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2011-11-29 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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